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Red Sox Rumors

No Talks Between James Paxton, Red Sox

By Steve Adams | September 15, 2023 at 2:29pm CDT

James Paxton returned to a big league mound for the first time since 2021, when he pitched just 1 1/3 innings with the Mariners, and remained healthy enough to make 19 starts for the Red Sox. Playing out the second season of a two-year, $10MM contract — Paxton exercised a $4MM player option at the end of the 2022 season — the 34-year-old lefty is slated to head back to the open market once the 2023 campaign concludes. Paxton tells Alex Speier of the Boston Globe that he’d love to return to the Sox next year but hasn’t yet had any discussions on the matter with team officials.

Any such conversations figure to be delayed now, of course, with the Red Sox seeking a new baseball operations leader following yesterday’s dismissal of chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom. General manager Brian O’Halloran remains with the team and is pairing with assistant GMs Eddie Romero, Raquel Ferreira and Michael Groopman to oversee matters in the short term, but the Sox also announced yesterday that O’Halloran would be offered a new role within the baseball operations department.

Paxton’s season officially drew to a close earlier this month when Boston put him on the 15-day injured list due to inflammation in his right knee. While there are more than 15 days remaining on the schedule, it was announced at the time of that IL placement that Nick Pivetta will be replacing Paxton in the rotation for the remainder of the year. There’s no indication that Paxton’s knee is a major issue, but he apparently needed more than a minimal absence and won’t make it back to the bump this year.

As such, Paxton’s season drew to a close with 96 innings of 4.50 ERA ball. That’s hardly a dominant showing, but much of the damage against him came in the three short starts preceding his placement on the injured list. Paxton carried a 3.34 ERA, 26.3% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate through his first 16 starts (86 1/3 innings) before being tagged for 16 earned runs on 18 hits (four of them home runs) and 10 walks in a span of just 9 2/3 innings.

Paxton’s injury history is about as extensive as you’ll find among established, active pitchers. He’s had both back surgery and Tommy John surgery in the past three years alone, also missing varying lengths of time due to a forearm strain, a hamstring strain, knee inflammation and a flexor strain — all just since the 2020 season alone. That said, his upside is notable as well. A healthy Paxton misses bats at a high level, limits walks and home runs, and induces grounders at a least a league-average clip. From 2016-19, he tallied 568 innings of 3.60 ERA ball — highlighted by a 2.98 ERA in 24 starts during the 2017 season with Seattle.

Whoever takes over baseball operations in Boston will need to address the rotation in some capacity this winter. Returning to the fold in 2024 will be oft-injured Chris Sale and a slew of less-experienced arms like Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford. Of the bunch, Bello is the only one who’s had a full, productive season in the rotation. Pivetta remains under club control as well, though he’ll be due a raise on this year’s $5.35MM salary and could be non-tendered or moved in a change-of-scenery swap. Keeping Paxton would maintain some continuity and add upside to the group, but his injury history has always made him feel like a bit of a tough fit with a Boston rotation mix that features so many other question marks. That’s not to say he can’t or won’t be brought back in the end, but the Sox will need to add additional stability even if Paxton is re-signed.

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Boston Red Sox James Paxton

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Red Sox Fire Chaim Bloom

By Steve Adams | September 14, 2023 at 11:59pm CDT

The Red Sox announced Thursday that they have fired chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom. The Sox also announced that general manager Brian O’Halloran has been offered a “new senior leadership position within the baseball operations department,” further signaling a major change in the organization’s structure. O’Halloran and assistant GMs Eddie Romero, Raquel Ferreira and Michael Groopman will oversee baseball operations for the time being, but the Sox added that a search for a new baseball operations leader will begin immediately.

“While parting ways is not taken lightly, today signals a new direction for our club,” principal owner John Henry said in a statement within the press release. “Our organization has significant expectations on the field and while Chaim’s efforts in revitalizing our baseball infrastructure have helped set the stage for the future, we will today begin a search for new leadership. Everyone who knows Chaim has a deep appreciation and respect for the kind of person he is. His time with us will always be marked by his professionalism, integrity, and an unwavering respect for our club and its legacy.”

Red Sox CEO Sam Kennedy said in the aftermath of Bloom’s dismissal that the Red Sox plan to conduct a “broader search” that “could take awhile” and that there are no preconceived plans to hire a more experienced candidate or another younger, first-time baseball ops leader (both links via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe). Notably, Speier adds that Kennedy took the additional step of specifically calling out that he “can rule out [former Red Sox GM] Theo Epstein as a candidate.”

Originally hired to the post in October 2019, Bloom has overseen baseball operations for the Sox for the past four seasons. While Bloom’s Red Sox enjoyed a 92-win season in 2021 and took the Astros to six games in the ALCS that year, it’s been a largely disappointing four years for the Sox otherwise. Boston followed up that ALCS showing with a 78-84 record the following season and is currently at 73-72 with no viable path to a postseason berth.

Hired away from the division-rival Rays, where he’d paired with since-promoted president Erik Neander to oversee the baseball operations department, Bloom was long billed as a future general manager/president of baseball ops himself. His arrival in Boston followed the similarly timed firing of current Phillies president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski, who’d brought a World Series title to Boston in 2018 but endured a difficult 2019 season that ultimately cost him his job.

The hiring of Bloom, a young executive from a Rays organization widely viewed as one of the game’s model organizations, represented a departure from the experienced Dombrowski, who’s now led baseball ops for four different organizations and got his start in baseball ops way back in 1978. The Rays are admired throughout the industry for their nearly unrivaled player development expertise and the manner in which they’re able to maintain an elite farm system and competitive club while simultaneously operating under some of the sport’s most stringent payroll limitations from ownership.

The Red Sox have indeed built up their farm system under Bloom, but it’s come at the expense of results at the MLB level. Boston’s free-agent additions under Bloom have been a mixed bag, at best. The 2023 additions of Kenley Jansen, Justin Turner, Chris Martin and Adam Duvall have all been strong moves, as was last year’s low-cost pickup of Michael Wacha. However, the six-year deal for Trevor Story hasn’t panned out at all as hoped thus far. And while Masataka Yoshida has hit better than many anticipated when he signed a five-year, $90MM contract, he’s cooled after a strong start and turned in shaky defensive ratings that have muted his overall value. Meanwhile, free-agent deals for James Paxton, Corey Kluber, Martin Perez and Garrett Richards over the years  haven’t helped the rotation as hoped.

Of course, the successful signings in and of themselves are a two-sided coin as well. The decision to buy low on Wacha proved savvy, but the Sox balked at bringing him back on a multi-year deal this winter and instead signed Kluber to a one-year pact that didn’t yield the intended results (7.04 ERA in 55 innings). The Sox also let Nathan Eovaldi depart rather than make him a multi-year offer, and while they received a compensatory pick after he signed in Texas, Eovaldi has been one of the American League’s best pitchers this season and would’ve found himself in the Cy Young conversation were it not for a recent six-week stay on the injured list.

Even that draft pick compensation the Sox received for the departures of Eovaldi and Xander Bogaerts were reduced due to some questionable front office dealings. The 2022 Red Sox tried to thread the needle between shedding salary and remaining competitive at that year’s trade deadline. While Boston traded Christian Vazquez and shed Jake Diekman’s salary, they also held onto Eovaldi, Wacha, J.D. Martinez and Rich Hill — all impending free agents — and acquired Tommy Pham. The result was a payroll that landed just a few million dollars north of the luxury tax threshold, thereby diminishing the comp picks for Bogaerts and Eovaldi. Teams that don’t pay the luxury tax receive comp picks after Competitive Balance Round B (typically around the 75th selection in the draft, give or take a few places). As a tax payor, the Sox instead received selections between the fourth and fifth round of the draft for that pair of veterans.

More recent dealings aside, Bloom will likely always be remembered — fairly or not — as the Red Sox’ baseball ops leader who oversaw the trade of Mookie Betts to Los Angeles. The trade of Betts was undoubtedly driven to some (likely significant) extent by ownership, and at the time of the swap Betts had steadfastly pledged to test the free-agent market. That didn’t prove to be the case, as Betts instead signed a 12-year, $365MM contract that stands as the largest amount of new money ever promised to a player at the time of his signing. (Mike Trout already had $66.5MM remaining on his contract when he signed a $360MM extension with the Angels.)

It’s arguable that Bloom deserves the benefit of the doubt, as any extension offers to Betts were always going to be ownership’s final call, and he had no impact or way of controlling whether Betts would ultimately put pen to paper with the Dodgers following a trade. Still, as the head of baseball operations, it’s incumbent to acquire the best return possible, and to this point the package the Sox received for a player who remains in perennial contention for MVP voting has simply hasn’t aligned with Betts’ value.

Alex Verdugo has stepped into the outfield in Betts’ place and developed into a solid regular. More than three years after the trade, Connor Wong has had a decent season as Boston’s primary catcher. Infield prospect Jeter Downs has since been designated for assignment and is no longer in the organization. Perhaps Wong can yet take his game to another level, but it’s been an underwhelming return for a player of Betts’ caliber — even if he had just one year of club control remaining at the time.

To Bloom’s credit, the Red Sox have that excellent 2021 season under his watch, and the farm system is currently in excellent shape. Baseball America graded it as the fifth-best system in baseball as of last month, although MLB.com was more bearish, pegging the Sox 16th. Prospects like Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, Kyle Teel and Ceddanne Rafaela (who debuted this month) all rank within the top 100 prospects in the game. While 24-year-old Brayan Bello, like Rafaela, was signed by the prior regime, his development into a quality big league starter has been largely overseen by Bloom’s staff. And while Betts, Bogaerts and other great players have walked out the door during Bloom’s tenure, he was also the baseball operations lead when the Sox inked Rafael Devers to a historic $313.5MM extension (although just as ownership surely played a substantial role in the Betts trade, that’s surely true of the Devers deal as well).

It’s worth noting that the Red Sox have seemingly been reluctant to push payroll to the same heights as in years past; Bloom’s Sox topped out at $206MM in Opening Day payroll (2022) and were closer to $180MM in 2021 and 2023. Conversely, the Sox were at $233MM and $236MM during the final two years of Dombrowski’s tenure. Relative to the rest of the league, Boston has been in the top half of spenders since Bloom’s hiring but never placing inside the top five — where they resided each season from 2004 to 2019.

Bloom’s experience in making value-oriented moves on the margins of the roster in Tampa Bay perhaps appealed to Sox ownership as they sought to curtail some of their previously aggressive spending levels, but it always felt odd to see a team with Boston’s financial might making head-scratching moves like extending Rob Refsnyder in May or swapping out Hunter Renfroe for Jackie Bradley Jr. in order to acquire some mid-range prospects from the Brewers.

As with any president or general manager, Bloom’s tenure will ultimately consist of notable wins and painful whiffs. In this instance, Sox ownership felt that the former had outweighed the latter by too great a margin, and they’ll now embark on a search for their fourth baseball operations leader since Theo Epstein’s departure prior to the 2012 season. Only the Angels have gone through that same number of GM changes in that same window.

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Boston Red Sox Newsstand Chaim Bloom

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Red Sox Place James Paxton On 15-Day Injured List

By Mark Polishuk | September 10, 2023 at 10:20am CDT

The Red Sox announced that left-hander James Paxton has been place on the 15-day injured list (retroactive to September 7) due to right knee inflammation.  In other transactions, Boston called up right-hander Nick Robertson from Triple-A Worcester and activated righty Garrett Whitlock from the bereavement list, while left-hander Joe Jacques has been optioned to Triple-A.

The timing of the IL move means that Paxton’s 2023 campaign is over, as Red Sox manager Alex Cora told The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier and other reporters that Nick Pivetta will take Paxton’s place in the rotation for the remainder of the season.  Paxton will finish the year with a 4.50 ERA over 96 innings, as well as a 24.6% strikeout rate and 8.0% walk rate that were both above the league average.

Considering that injuries (including a Tommy John surgery) limited Paxton to only six games and 21 2/3 total innings between the 2020-22 seasons, just getting onto a mound and making it almost the entire way through the 2023 season counts as a significant achievement for the southpaw.  A Spring Training hamstring injury delayed Paxton’s debut until May 12, but he pitched well over his first four months before seemingly starting to wear down during August.  Paxton was tagged for 16 earned runs over his last three starts and 9 2/3 innings, putting a sour end on what had been a solid year.

The Sox had already planned to push Paxton’s next start back a few days, but since Cora implied that Paxton’s knee had been bothering him, the team has opted to shut the lefty down rather than risk any further injury.  While Paxton hadn’t been contributing much in his last few outings anyway, the IL decision also seems to hint how the Red Sox might be slowly turning to look towards 2024 rather than the wild card race, as Cora implied in today’s meeting with reporters.  Boston is seven games back of the last AL wild card slot, and with just a 72-70 record, finishing above .500 is no guarantee for the Sox, let alone a playoff berth.

The outcome might lead to some hindsight about Boston’s decision to keep Paxton at the trade deadline, as the Rangers (and likely several other teams) had interest in the left-hander prior to August 1.  For the second straight season, Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom opted to both buy and sell at the deadline, though this year’s Red Sox club was closer in the race than the 2022 edition.  The very streaky nature of this year’s club also makes it understandable why Bloom didn’t swing too hard in either transactional direction at the deadline, and since the Sox were already hurting for pitching, it makes sense why the team would’ve wanted to keep Paxton as a key piece of whatever late-season push might have been in store.

With Paxton’s 2023 now over, it is possible he has also thrown his last pitch in a Red Sox uniform.  He is set to hit free agency this winter, and it will be interesting to see what kind of deal Paxton could land as he enters his age-35 season and on the back of a year that saw mostly good results when healthy.  Assuming this knee problem doesn’t develop into anything serious, Paxton could have a case for a multi-year agreement, though teams will likely prefer a one-year deal with vesting/club options (maybe similar to his previous deal with the Red Sox) given his lengthy health history.

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Boston Red Sox Transactions Garrett Whitlock James Paxton Joe Jacques Nick Robertson

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AL East Notes: Red Sox, Paredes, Swanson

By Nick Deeds | September 9, 2023 at 10:33pm CDT

Top prospect Ceddanne Rafaela has found limited playing time with the Red Sox since being called up at the end of August despite an overall strong performance at the plate in the majors so far, going 7-for-16 with two doubles. When asked about Rafaela’s playing time, manager Alex Cora told reporters (including MassLive’s Chris Cotillo) that Rafaela will continue to play in a reserve role as long as the club remains in the playoff race.

While the playoff odds at Fangraphs give the Red Sox just a 1.3% chance to make the postseason after tonight’s loss to Baltimore, Boston still has three games to go against each of the two clubs directly ahead of them in the standings, Texas and Toronto. That gives them a slim opening for a miracle run despite being a whopping seven games back of the final AL Wild Card spot with just three weeks to go in the regular season. With Rafaela’s first taste of everyday action in the big leagues on hold for the time being, the versatile youngster figures to share time at second base with Enmanuel Valdez while also offering backup options to Trevor Story at shortstop and Adam Duvall in center field.

More from the AL East…

  • Rays infielder Isaac Paredes exited today’s game after being hit in the hand by a pitch from right-hander Luke Weaver during the fifth inning of today’s game against the Mariners. Fortunately for Tampa, x-rays on Paredes’s hand came back negative and the 24-year-old third baseman was diagnosed with a hand contusion. Manager Kevin Cash indicated to reporters (including those at MLB.com) that Paredes won’t be in tomorrow’s starting lineup and is day-to-day, but could be available off the bench if necessary. It’s been a breakout campaign for Paredes in 2023, as the youngster has slashed a fantastic .253/.352/.502 in 497 trips to the plate this season. 22-year-old rookie Osleivis Basabe figures to take over at the hot corner while Parades is out of action.
  • The Blue Jays could welcome back right-hander Erik Swanson in the near future. The righty has been out due to thoracic spine inflammation since late August, and he’ll reach the minimum 15 days spent on the IL tomorrow. Swanson made a rehab appearance with Triple-A Buffalo this evening, and notched one strikeout without allowing a baserunner during his inning of work. Assuming he bounces back from tonight’s outing well, MLB.com notes that Swanson could return to the big league club without requiring another rehab appearance. That’s great news for the Blue Jays, as Swanson was perhaps their most reliable set-up man for closer Jordan Romano before he went on the shelf. In 58 innings of work this season, Swanson sports a 3.10 ERA, 3.28 FIP, and a 29.4% strikeout rate. He figures to form a lethal three-headed-monster at the back of the Toronto bullpen alongside Romano and deadline addition Jordan Hicks should the Blue Jays make it to the postseason.
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Boston Red Sox Notes Tampa Bay Rays Toronto Blue Jays Ceddanne Rafaela Erik Swanson Isaac Paredes

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Red Sox Claim Logan Gillaspie From Orioles

By Darragh McDonald | September 4, 2023 at 1:35pm CDT

The Red Sox have claimed right-hander Logan Gillaspie off waivers from the Orioles, per Ian Browne of MLB.com, and optioned him to Triple-A. The O’s had designated the righty for assignment over the weekend. To open a spot on their 40-man, the Sox transferred outfielder Jarren Duran to the 60-day injured list.

Gillaspie, 26, tossed 26 1/3 innings for the Orioles between last year and this year. He had a 4.10 earned run average in that time, striking out just 15% of batters faced but limiting walks to a 6.7% rate. In Triple-A this year, he’s thrown 36 1/3 innings with a 4.71 ERA, 21.4% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate. His numbers at that level were stronger last year, despite a 5.09 ERA. He struck out 24.8% of Triple-A hitters he faced while walking just 5.9%.

The Sox essentially had a roster spot to burn, since it was announced last week that Duran would require season-ending surgery to deal with a turf toe injury. That made his transfer to the 60-day injured list inevitable and the club has now used his roster spot to add another depth arm to the system. Gillaspie will still have one more option year beyond this season and he has less than a year of service time.

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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Transactions Jarren Duran Logan Gillaspie

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AL East Notes: Means, Bautista, Verdugo, Bradley

By Nick Deeds | September 3, 2023 at 5:29pm CDT

The Orioles have had a wildly successful 2023 campaign, with an 84-51 record that places them 2.5 games ahead of the Rays in a highly competitive AL East division. Despite that success, the club’s clear Achilles heel throughout the season has been the starting rotation, which has produced just 8.3 fWAR this year, 19th in the majors and only better than San Francisco among clubs currently in playoff position. While the club added right-hander Jack Flaherty at the trade deadline to bolster their staff, he’s struggled to a 6.41 ERA in 19 2/3 innings of work with Baltimore.

Given this, it should be a major relief to Orioles fans that left-hander John Means may be nearing a return to the big league club. MLB.com’s Jake Rill relays that manager Brandon Hyde indicated to reporters that Means will make another rehab start with Triple-A Norfolk but could be available to join the club’s big league rotation following that. Means, of course, hasn’t pitched since April 2022 after undergoing Tommy John surgery but sports a 3.72 ERA and 4.59 FIP in 353 1/3 innings of work since the start of his rookie campaign back in 2019. If the 30-year-old lefty can recapture his steady, mid-rotation performance from prior to his surgery in time for the postseason, he’ll surely be an asset to a rotation that figures to include right-handers Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, and Kyle Gibson.

More from around the AL East…

  • Sticking with the Orioles, closer Felix Bautista hit the injured list with “some degree of injury” to his UCL last week, though since then specifics regarding his situation have been sparse. Hyde provided an update regarding Bautista to reporters this afternoon, with Rill relaying that the club is waiting for inflammation in Bautista’s elbow to go down before deciding on next steps. While Bautista already underwent an MRI, Rill notes that more tests could be in the 28-year-old’s future as the club tries to determine the best course of action for their breakout relief ace.
  • Red Sox outfielder Alex Verdugo exited today’s game against the Royals due to what the club termed as hamstring tightness. Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe caught up with Verdugo following the game and the 27-year-old downplayed the severity of the issue, suggesting that he “felt a little something” in his hamstring during the sixth inning and that it should be taken care of with a day or two of rest. Should Verdugo miss more time than that, the club has Wilyer Abreu, Cedanne Rafaela, and Rob Refsnyder as options to fill out the outfield alongside Adam Duvall and Masataka Yoshida.
  • The Rays recalled rookie starter Taj Bradley today, with the 22-year-old hurler taking the place of the recently-injured Jason Adam on the active roster. Bradley’s first sixteen starts with Tampa were something of a mixed bag; while the youngster dazzled with a 30% strikeout rate against a 7.9% walk rate, his 5.67 ERA in 74 2/3 innings left a great deal to be desired in terms of both results and volume. Of course, it’s worth pointing out that Bradley’s BABIP allowed was the sixth-highest figure in the majors among pitchers with at least 70 innings of work this year, while his strand rate was tenth lowest. That combination indicates some degree of bad luck in Bradley’s results, though a whopping 17.3% of his fly balls leaving the yard for home runs serves as an indicator that not all of his struggles have been pure misfortune. Bradley will look to end his rookie campaign on a high note as a member of the rotation alongside Tyler Glasnow, Aaron Civale, Zach Eflin, and Zack Littell.
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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Notes Tampa Bay Rays Alex Verdugo Felix Bautista John Means Taj Bradley

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Jarren Duran To Undergo Season-Ending Toe Surgery

By Darragh McDonald | August 29, 2023 at 4:10pm CDT

The Red Sox announced to reporters, including Christopher Smith of MassLive, that outfielder Jarren Duran will have season-ending turf toe surgery tomorrow. Duran is already on the 10-day injured list but will be transferred to the 60-day version whenever the Sox needs his roster spot. Manager Alex Cora said they expect him to be back by Spring Training, per Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic.

Duran, 26, suffered the injury when scaling the wall at Yankee Stadium, attempting to reach a home run ball hit by Gleyber Torres. He was placed on the injured list a week ago with the Sox describing his injury as a left great toe sprain. It seems the injury is significant enough that he’ll have to go under the knife and won’t be able to come back this year.

It’s an unfortunately sour end to a nice breakout season for the outfielder. He had gotten into 91 games over 2021 and 2022 but struck out in 30.7% of his 335 plate appearances. His .219/.269/.354 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 67, indicating he was 33% below league average in that time. That put him behind players like Adam Duvall and Raimel Tapia on the depth chart and Duran started the season at Triple-A.

But Duvall’s injury absence and Tapia’s struggles opened a path for Duran that he ran with. He was recalled in mid-April and went on to hit .295/.346/.482 for a wRC+ of 120. His 24.9% strikeout rate is still above average but a significant improvement over his own previous work. The reviews on his glovework were mixed, with -5 Defensive Runs Saved but Ultimate Zone Rating grading him just below par at -0.6 and Outs Above Average having him as breaking even. He also stole 24 bases while getting caught just twice. That will now go down as the totality of this 2023 work, as he won’t be returning. It’s a tough loss for the Sox, who are now 5.5 games out of a playoff spot with just over a month left in the season.

Going forward, Duran still has five years of club control remaining and seems to have increased his chances of being a viable long-term solution in center. Tapia is no longer on the team and Duvall is set to become a free agent at season’s end, though he’ll likely continue manning center for the time being. Prospects Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela could also be in the mix, as they both have recently been promoted, though they will each go into 2024 with less experience that Duran.

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Boston Red Sox Newsstand Jarren Duran

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Red Sox Promote Ceddanne Rafaela

By Darragh McDonald | August 28, 2023 at 3:55pm CDT

3:55pm: The Sox have now officially announced all of these moves.

3:30pm: The Red Sox are recalling prospect Ceddanne Rafaela, per Ian Browne of MLB.com, along with infielder/outfielder David Hamilton. In corresponding moves, infielder Pablo Reyes is going on the injured list while outfielder Wilyer Abreu heads to the paternity list.

Rafaela, now 22, was signed by the Sox as an amateur out of Curaçao for a modest bonus of $10K. He has since performed well in his rise through the minor leagues and is now considered one of the club’s top prospects, though a somewhat divisive one. He has always hit well on the farm but has done so while swinging at just about everything, leading some evaluators to question whether that hyper-aggressive approach could be exploited by major league pitchers. He also began as an infielder but wasn’t considered an excellent defender there, though his move to center field a few years ago seems to have been an astute one, as he’s now considered elite at that position.

His overall prospect stock shot up in 2022, as he split his time between High-A and Double-A with a combined batting line of .299/.342/.538 and a wRC+ of 134 while spending more time in the outfield. That got him onto some top 100 prospect lists and selected to Boston’s 40-man roster in November, to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. He’s had another strong performance here in 2023, hitting .302/.349/.520 between Double-A and Triple-A for a wRC+ of 121.

As mentioned, there is divided opinion on Rafaela as a prospect. Baseball America doesn’t currently have him on their top 100, recently ranking him #6 in the club’s system. Kiley McDaniel recently provided a top 50 update to his prospect rankings without Rafaela making the cut. However, MLB Pipeline has him at #77 in the league, Keith Law of The Athletic recent put him at #48 and FanGraphs has him all the way up at #31.

The major question mark seems to be whether his approach at the plate will work in the big leagues. He’s drawn walks in just 105 of his 1,852 plate appearances in the minors thus far, a rate of 5.7% that’s well below the 8.5% major league average. But his overall offense is strong enough that he’ll get a chance against big league pitching.

This part of the calendar is a popular time for prospect promotions, since there’s not enough time left in the season for players to exhaust rookie eligibility. That’s significant under the new collective bargaining agreement, as players with rookie status that feature on top prospect lists can potentially earn their clubs an extra draft pick in future seasons based on awards voting.

That will be a concern for the future. For now, the club will hope Rafaela can hit the ground running and perhaps provide a jolt to finish the year, as they are currently just 4.5 games out of a playoff spot. But it will also give them a chance to evaluate Rafaela prior to the offseason, with center field a bit of a question mark. Adam Duvall has spent plenty of time there but is a free agent at season’s end. Jarren Duran has had a breakout season but is getting some help from a .381 batting average on balls in play and is currently on the injured list. Abreu has been playing some center but is considered by many to be a better fit for a corner. The final weeks of the season could perhaps provide the club some more information on how their center field depth chart looks for 2024.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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Boston Red Sox Newsstand Top Prospect Promotions Transactions Ceddanne Rafaela David Hamilton Pablo Reyes Wilyer Abreu

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Injury Notes: Dodgers, Devers, Manning, Houser

By Nick Deeds | August 27, 2023 at 10:45pm CDT

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts provided a host of injury updates this afternoon regarding various relief options for the club as LA hurtles toward their eleventh consecutive playoff appearance, as relayed by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. While right-hander Tony Gonsolin will not be an option for the club down the stretch this year, Roberts provided updates on a pair of relievers who could still impact the club in 2023: right-handers Joe Kelly and Yency Almonte.

Kelly threw a bullpen session recently but is still struggling with pain in his elbow, per Roberts. The veteran righty, who threw 3 2/3 scoreless innings with the Dodgers after joining the club at the trade deadline alongside Lance Lynn, went on the injured list earlier this month with elbow inflammation. According to Roberts, Kelly is expected to return in time for the postseason but there is “a chance he’s not gonna be 100%” when he does. Almonte, meanwhile, has a clearer timeline, with Roberts indicating that the 29 year old is two to three weeks from a return from his knee injury.

Most interesting for Dodgers fans will surely be Roberts’ comments on right-hander Walker Buehler, who’s aiming to return from Tommy John surgery before the 2023 season comes to a close. Buehler hasn’t started a rehab assignment, but Plunkett relays that Roberts still believes Buehler’s long-stated goal of returning to the big league mound for games in September is still on the table, with the manager indicating that the club is planning on Buehler to return to the majors toward the middle of the month. While Roberts notes that Buehler’s stuff is in good shape, his command “hasn’t been good” and is something “he’ll have to work through” on his coming rehab assignment.

Healthy returns to the mound from Kelly, Almonte, and particularly Buehler would substantially deepen the club’s bullpen ahead of the postseason. While the Dodgers have been nothing short of dominant of late with just four losses in August, the club’s bullpen is a potential weak point, ranking roughly middle-of-the-pack in the majors with a 3.83 ERA and having been leaned on for the more innings than any NL bullpen besides those in Cincinnati and San Francisco.

More injury notes from around the league…

  • Star Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers underwent x-rays on his wrist after being hit by a pitch during last night’s game against LA and struck from the lineup this afternoon. Fortunately, Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic relays that those x-rays came back negative, per manager Alex Cora. Cora added to reporters that Devers could return to the lineup as soon as tomorrow, depending on how the slugger is feeling. That’s surely a relief for Boston, as the 26-year-old infielder is perhaps the club’s most important and consistent players. Devers is in the midst of another season right in line with his career norms; since his breakout campaign in 2019, he’s slashed .288/.351/.529 with a 19.7% strikeout rate and a 131 wRC+. In 530 trips to the plate this season, Devers has essentially replicated that line, slashing .272/.347/.516 with a 18.7% strikeout rate and a 127 wRC+.
  • Tigers right-hander Matt Manning is preparing to make his next start on Wednesday after exiting his last start with lower back tightness. With that being said, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press indicated yesterday that Manning actually making his start on Wednesday is not a guarantee. Per Petzold, manager AJ Hinch told reporters that the club will “see how the next couple of days are” regarding Manning’s health before determining whether or not he’ll make his start. Petzold suggests right-hander Spencer Turnbull and left-hander Joey Wentz could be options to take the ball on Wednesday should Manning, who sports a 3.93 ERA in 13 starts with the Tigers this season, require a trip to the shelf.
  • Brewers righty Adrian Houser departed today’s start against the Padres after just two innings, having allowed four runs on four hits and a walk. Milwaukee indicated that Houser’s early exit was due to what the club termed “minor forearm tightness.” As relayed by Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Houser downplayed the injury’s seriousness in conversations with reporters, indicating he expects to make his next start after taking some time off to rest. Houser’s next start would line up for Saturday against the Phillies, though with a day off on Thursday Milwaukee has the ability to give Houser additional rest without using another starter, should he need it.
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Boston Red Sox Detroit Tigers Los Angeles Dodgers Milwaukee Brewers Notes Adrian Houser Joe Kelly Matt Manning Rafael Devers Walker Buehler Yency Almonte

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AL East Notes: Yankees, Kjerstad, Swanson

By Nick Deeds | August 26, 2023 at 7:04pm CDT

The Yankees are among the teams interested in star NPB pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, as noted by Newsday’s Erik Boland. Boland added that the club’s director of pro scouting Matt Daley is currently in Japan and another top scout visited to watch Yamamoto pitch earlier in the year. Jon Heyman of the New York Post also notes the Yankees interest, listing them among ten teams that scouted Yamamoto’s most recent start. That list of teams includes the club’s crosstown rival Mets as well as their division rival Red Sox.

Yamamoto, who claimed the #3 spot on MLBTR’s newest edition of the 2023-24 Free Agent Power Rankings, sports a sensational 1.34 ERA in 127 innings of work with the Orix Buffaloes this year, his age-24 season. That level of excellence extends all the way back to 2021; in 514 2/3 innings of work the past three seasons, Yamamoto’s ERA is 1.50 while he’s struck out 27.2% of batters he’s faced, walking just 5.2%. That level of dominance even eclipses that of former Yankee Masahiro Tanaka, who made two All Star appearances and posted a 3.33 ERA in ten postseason starts for the club after signing a seven-year, $155MM deal with New York prior to the 2014 season.

It’s no wonder the Yankees would have interest in Yamamoto; while they’ve gotten another excellent season out of ace Gerrit Cole, the club’s other starters have largely disappointed. Lefties Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes, nominally the club’s #2 and #3 starters, have been limited to just 7 and 12 starts respectively this season thanks to injuries and struggled badly. A Yamamoto signing would certainly give the Yankees a quality arm to pair with Cole at the top of their rotation while simultaneously helping to alleviate pressure not only on Rodon and Cortes, but also on youngsters like Clarke Schmidt, Jhony Brito, and Randy Vasquez entering 2024.

More from around the AL East…

  • Orioles outfield prospect Heston Kjerstad is on the club’s radar for a possible call-up option when rosters expand on September 1, as GM Mike Elias told reporters (including BaltimoreBaseball.com’s Rich Dubroff). The 2nd overall pick in the 2020 draft, Kjerstad didn’t make his MiLB debut until last June thanks to a myocarditis diagnosis but has done nothing but hit since then. In 473 trips to the plate this season between the Double-A and Triple-A levels, the 24-year-old outfielder has slashed a sensational .308/.378/.542 with a strikeout rate just below 18%. If called up for the stretch run, Kjerstad would join an outfield that typically sports Austin Hays in left, Cedric Mullins in center, and Anthony Santander in right.
  • Blue Jays reliever Erik Swanson exited today’s game against the Guardians with right mid-back discomfort, as noted by The Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath. The severity of Swanson’s injury isn’t yet known, but even a short absence for the right-hander, who sports a 3.10 ERA and a 29.4% strikeout rate in 58 innings of work this season, would be a substantial blow to Toronto’s bullpen. Of course, the club would still have right-handers Jordan Romano (2.60 ERA, 29.9% strikeout rate) and Jordan Hicks (3.83 ERA, 30.3% strikeout rate) available for the late innings even if Swanson required a trip to the injured list.
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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox New York Mets New York Yankees Notes Toronto Blue Jays Erik Swanson Heston Kjerstad Yoshinobu Yamamoto

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