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A Likely Trade Chip In The Rockies’ Outfield

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As recently as a few months ago, the Rockies’ 2022 swap of Raimel Tapia for Blue Jays outfielder Randal Grichuk looked like a no-win trade for both parties. Tapia lasted one season in Toronto before being non-tendered and signing a minor league deal with the Red Sox. Grichuk’s offense didn’t tick up in his first year at Coors Field, as many had expected it to. He posted his typical sub-.300 OBP and surprisingly had his lowest power showing (by measure of ISO) since his rookie campaign. He was essentially a replacement-level player in 2022.

The 2023 season has brought about better results, however. Grichuk still isn’t hitting for the same level of power he did during his Toronto days (five homers, .172 ISO in 225 plate appearances), but he’s walking at a career-best 7.6% clip and currently has a 20.9% strikeout rate that ties his career-low mark.

Grichuk has undoubtedly had some good fortune on balls in play — his .368 BABIP is 70 points north of his career-high — but his .300/.364/.473 batting line is impressive all the same. The 31-year-old’s 90.6 mph average exit velocity and 45.2% hard-hit rate are both well above-average and only narrowly short of his career-best levels. His 24.2% line-drive rate is a personal best by a wide margin.

Things have gone particularly well for the veteran outfielder as of late. After a brief but dismal slump in the first couple weeks of June, Grichuk has bounced back with a .322/.375/.610 slash over his past 64 trips to the plate. Today’s front offices generally aren’t going to overreact to a short hot streak, but Grichuk’s recent uptick in production is particularly notable given that he’s slugged four of his five home runs in that stretch. After posting just a 33.6% fly-ball rate through mid-June, he’s had a 44% fly-ball rate during this heater.

While he’s having an undeniably productive season at the plate, Grichuk’s game has ostensibly taken a step back in other areas. Defensive Runs Saved (-8) and Outs Above Average (-6) agree that this is among the worst defensive seasons of his career — if not the worst.

As a rookie, Grichuk ranked in the 91st percentile of big leaguers in terms of average sprint speed, per Statcast. It’s only natural for a player to slow down as he ages, but Grichuk had well above-average speed as recently as 2021 (76th percentile) and 2022 (68th percentile). He’s down to the 46th percentile of MLB players in 2023 — the first below-average season of his career. His arm strength remains above average, but Statcast now places him in just the fourth percentile of MLB outfielders in terms of his outfield jumps.

Taken in totality, it’s a somewhat limited skill set. Grichuk can play all three outfield spots but has generally rated best in right field. He’s hitting well against righties in 2023 (.295/.357/.439) and tattooing lefties (.313/.380/.537), but his career body of work is below-average when he’s not holding the platoon advantage.

Grichuk is a solid enough role player who’s been thrust into an everyday role with the Rockies. The results in ’23 have been decent enough, but combined with his 2022 season he still looks better deployed in a more limited capacity.

That’s likely how many contenders will view him. Grichuk is a career .264/.311/.498 hitter against southpaws who’s made gains in terms of his overall plate discipline this season, albeit at the expense of some power. His defensive ratings are down, but that’s partially due to being played in center field, where he’s no longer a good fit, and in left field, where he hadn’t logged an innings since 2018 (when he played six frames there).

A contending team could install Grichuk as a part-time DH and right fielder whose primary role is to step into the lineup and help against southpaws. He can cover center field in a pinch and has enough bat that he’s not a total liability when needed to play against righties.

There are plenty of clubs in need of just this type of skill set. The Giants, Guardians, Twins and Brewers are all playoff hopefuls whose team-wide production against left-handed pitching ranks in the bottom seven of MLB clubs (by measure of wRC+). The D-backs, who have an all-left-handed outfield, are only slightly better, at 21st.

In seasons past, it might’ve been fair to wonder whether the Rockies would move Grichuk at all. Frankly, based on their history of hanging onto impending free agents, it still is. However, Rockies manager Bud Black said on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM just today that he believes his team’s front office will be “more active” than in seasons past at this year’s trade deadline.

Grichuk is a natural candidate to be moved. He’s a free agent at season’s end who’s earning $9.333MM this season. The Blue Jays are on the hook for $4.333MM of that sum as part of the trade that brought him to Denver in the first place, however, meaning an acquiring team would only be responsible for $2.02MM of the $5MM the Rockies are paying him (as of tomorrow). Colorado, of course, could pay down some of that money to increase his appeal.

Grichuk isn’t going to be a contender’s marquee addition, but he can can deepen a team’s bench and — based on Black’s comments today — seems like a player with a good chance to change teams in the next 14 days.

Black: Rockies Could Be “More Active” On Summer Trade Market

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At 36-58, the Rockies sit at the bottom of the National League and have MLB’s third-worst record overall, leading only the A’s and Royals. While Colorado has developed a reputation for hanging onto potential trade candidates at the deadline instead of moving them at peak value, manager Bud Black said in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM today that the Rox will likely be more active in 2023 (audio link).

“I think there’s probably more potential this year,” Black told Power Alley hosts Jim Duquette and Mike Ferrin. “…This year is the year where, possibly, you could see more movement out of us. With the players that we have, and what we have going on in the second half of this year, and going into next year and the years beyond, it could make more sense to be a little bit more active.”

Unfortunately for the Rockies, a number of their would-be trade chips are on the injured list — many with serious injuries. German Marquez won’t pitch again this year after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He has a club option for next season, but that’ll likely be declined, as his recovery will span into next summer. Righty Antonio Senzatela is also set for Tommy John surgery, and lefty Kyle Freeland is on the IL with a subluxation in his non-throwing shoulder. Lefty reliever Brent Suter is a rental in the midst of a strong season, but he’s been out since late June with an oblique strain.

Others on the roster are sensible trade candidates from a contractual standpoint but aren’t performing well enough to maximize their value. Reliever Pierce Johnson is on a one-year, $5MM deal and is a natural candidate to change teams, but he’s also toting a grim 6.14 ERA and 13.2% walk rate. Daniel Bard, whom the Rockies extended in lieu of a trade last summer, has spent time on the injured list with anxiety issues. He’s seen a three mile per hour drop in velocity and has nearly as many walks as strikeouts in 32 2/3 innings. C.J. Cron and Jurickson Profar are both free agents at season’s end, but both have played below replacement level in 2023.

The Rox do have a handful of interesting names to peddle. Veterans Randal Grichuk and Brad Hand are both impending free agents at season’s end and could draw interest. Hand was enjoying a strong rebound season before being tagged for seven runs across three recent appearances, sending his ERA ballooning up to 4.99. He’s still an affordable lefty with a 26.1% strikeout rate. If the Rockies aren’t afraid of dealing controllable relievers — particularly a pair who are of the late-blooming variety — both Justin Lawrence and Jake Bird should generate interest.

Catcher Elias Diaz, a first-time All-Star in 2023, is perhaps the team’s most appealing trade candidate, as I explored at greater length last week. Diaz is signed affordably through next season, and it’s unlikely Colorado will be in contention by the time his three-year, $14.5MM deal expires at the end of the 2024 campaign. There’s been no indication the Rockies would entertain offers on third baseman Ryan McMahon — at least not yet — but he’s signed through the 2027 season and is again playing superlative hot corner defense with solid offensive contributions as well (albeit in spite of a career-worst 31% strikeout rate that is an obvious red flag).

There’s sure to be some degree of frustration among Rockies fans to hear these types of comments in 2023 — when the Rockies have their worst roster in years — rather than in recent non-contending seasons. The Rockies, for instance, declined to trade either Trevor Story or Jon Gray when both were in their final seasons of club control. They received a compensatory draft pick when Story declined a qualifying offer but chose not to even make a QO to Gray, losing him with no compensation. GM Bill Schmidt recently suggested to Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post that he simply didn’t receive “legitimate” offers.

It was a similar story last summer with Bard, who was in the middle of a dominant season and viewed as one of the top trade candidates on the market. Rather than trade the 37-year-old flamethrower a couple months ahead of him reaching the open market, Colorado inked him to a two-year, $19MM extension that has quickly gone south. The Rockies also held onto Cron at the ’21 deadline and later extended him on a two-year deal that looked good this time last summer. Again, however, they hung onto Cron and, as with Bard, have seen his trade value plummet.

Time will tell how aggressive the Rockies will be and how much interest the healthy players on their roster will draw. But it’s abundantly clear the team is in need of some changes. Colorado is 19th in the Majors with 411 runs scored and 24th with 89 total home runs. The Rockies rank 13th in MLB with a .253 batting average but are 22nd with a .313 OBP and 18th with a .403 slugging percentage.

The pitching has been even worse. Injuries have surely contributed, but the Rockies’ staff looked highly questionable even coming into the season. To this point, Colorado starters have baseball’s worst combined ERA (6.44), and their bullpen ranks 27th with a 4.81 mark. Colorado pitchers have MLB’s worst strikeout rate (18.3%) and fifth-highest walk rate (9.7%). Their 1.51 HR/9 mark is the worst in baseball as well.

Rockies Agree To Terms With First-Rounder Chase Dollander

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The Rockies have agreed to terms with right-hander Chase Dollander, the No. 9 overall pick in this year’s draft, Jim Callis of MLB.com reports. The University of Tennessee right-hander will receive his full slot value of $5,716,900.

A breakout season in 2022 positioned Dollander as one of the top arms in this year’s draft class. Dollander’s sophomore season with the Vols was sensational, as the 6’2″ righty pitched 79 innings of 2.39 ERA ball with a 35.3% strikeout rate against a 4.2% walk rate. However, Dollander’s junior season in 2023 was shakier. In 89 frames, he posted a 4.75 ERA with a diminished (though still strong) 31.3% strikeout rate and a 7.8% walk rate that nearly doubled his rate from the prior season. Dollander also plunked eight hitters after hitting just two the year prior.

Despite the uneven performance, Dollander still rated as one of the top arms in this year’s class. Baseball America rated him as the draft’s No. 6 overall prospect — the No. 2 pitching prospect behind LSU ace and eventual No. 1 overall pick Paul Skenes. FanGraphs ranked him eighth in the class, while MLB.com ranked Dollander as the class’ No. 9 overall prospect and Keith Law placed him No. 15 at The Athletic.

Scouting reports on Dollander will universally praise a mid-90s fastball that topped out around 99 mph at his most dominant in 2022, but Law and others note when breaking down his 2023 season that the shape of the right-hander’s slider changed for the worse in ’23. Dollander’s command also wasn’t nearly as sharp, and he’ll need further develop his curveball and/or changeup in pro ball to give him a third consistent offering.

Dollander adds some substantial upside to a Rockies system that is generally devoid of top-end pitching prospects. He’s not as polished or MLB-ready as Skenes, who went with the top pick, but he entered the 2023 season widely regarded as the top college arm in this year’s class and should immediately become the system’s top pitching prospect.

NL West Notes: Grichuk, Yankees, Campusano, Morejon, Gonzalez, Rodgers, Kinley

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As the Yankees look for outfield help, Randal Grichuk is a “name that has come up” in the team’s explorations, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).  Now in his second season with the Rockies, Grichuk missed most of April recovering from offseason sports hernia surgery, but has since hit .300/.364/.473 (112 wRC+) over 225 plate appearances.  Grichuk is a free agent after the season and would be a pure rental for New York, and he is owed roughly $3.89MM for the remainder of the 2023 campaign.  The exact of who owes Grichuk that money isn’t exactly known, as the Blue Jays were paying $4.333MM of the total $9.333MM owed to Grichuk this year, so the Rockies’ 2023 financial obligation (and thus the obligation for any trade suitor) may technically be done, depending on how Grichuk’s salary was divvied up.

Regardless, Grichuk would still count as a relatively inexpensive acquisition for the Yankees.  Grichuk can play at least passable defense at all three outfield positions, making him a usefully flexible option for New York both before and after Aaron Judge returns from the injured list.  While his splits indicate a lot more success at Coors Field than at away ballparks this season, Grichuk does at least have a solid track record of success at Yankee Stadium, with a .279/.333/.532 slash line and seven home runs over 120 career PA in the Bronx.  The struggling Rockies are reportedly open to moving pending free agents like Grichuk, though there’s a slight question mark about his health, as Grichuk has missed Colorado’s last couple of games due to groin tightness.

Here’s more from around the NL West…

  • Padres catcher Luis Campusano has missed most of the 2023 campaign after undergoing thumb surgery in early May, leaving the club to rely on the struggling Austin Nola and in-season signing Gary Sanchez behind the plate.  Fortunately, Campusano appears to be nearing a return as Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune write that the backstop is in “the final stages” of his Triple-A rehab assignment, and is expected to rejoin the club during their current road trip (which runs through July 23).  According to Acee, Campusano’s return will result in a timeshare with Sanchez, though the playing time specifics are expected to be “merit-based.”  Sanchez has hit .197/.279/.426 (94 wRC+) in 136 plate appearances with the Padres while Campusano posted a .238/.227/.429 (70 wRC+) slash line prior to his trip to the IL, albeit in just 22 trips to the plate.
  • Sticking with the Padres, the club announced today that left-hander Adrian Morejon was placed on the 15-day injured list due to right knee inflammation.  It’s been a difficult road for Morejon, who has pitched just 47 2/3 innings since the start of the 2021 campaign due to a Tommy John surgery, and then an elbow sprain that sent him to the 60-day IL at the start of this season.  Morejon will be replaced on the active roster by right-hander Matt Waldron, who sports a 3.86 ERA in 4 2/3 innings of work with the Padres this season.
  • Luis Gonzalez underwent back surgery in March, but Giants manager Gabe Kapler told reporters (including Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle) today that the outfielder is set to begin a rehab assignment.  It will take a while for Gonzalez to ramp up after the long layoff, but his recovery should line up with the August timeline recently mentioned by Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi.  Gonzalez was a solid contributor to the 2022 club, hitting .254/.323/.360 over 350 PA in his rookie season.
  • Bookending the post with some more Rockies news, Brendan Rodgers and Tyler Kinley will start rehab assignments with the Rockies’ high-A affiliate on Monday, according to Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (Twitter link).  Neither player has seen any action this season, as Rodgers underwent shoulder surgery during Spring Training and Kinley is recovering from an elbow surgery a little over a year ago.

Antonio Senzatela To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela will undergo Tommy John surgery, manager Bud Black told reporters (including Patrick Lyons of DNVR Sports). The righty is already on the 60-day injured list. He recently suffered a setback during his attempt to rehab from an elbow sprain that sent him to the IL two months ago.

It’s another dismal development for a Colorado pitching staff that has had a disastrous year. Opening Day starter Germán Márquez underwent a Tommy John procedure of his own in May. Kyle Freeland had been healthy and effective for much of the first half, but he suffered an injury to his non-throwing shoulder during his final start before the All-Star Break.

A healthy Senzatela would quite likely be Colorado’s #3 starter behind Márquez and Freeland. The Rox are now without all three members of that group. Márquez’s time in the organization could be nearing its end completely. Colorado is sure to buy out a club option valued at $16MM, although it wouldn’t be a surprise if they tried to bring him back on a cheaper multi-year deal after that.

Senzatela will be on the roster next season, but he’s now slated to miss most or all of the year. The typical rehab for a Tommy John surgery ranges from 14-16 months. It’s possible he makes it back toward the tail end of the 2024 campaign if his recovery goes well.

The Venezuelan-born righty had been a decent innings eater for Colorado early in his career. He’s started 20+ games on three separate occasions and took the ball all 12 times through the rotation during the shortened 2020 schedule. Between 2020-21, he pitched to a 4.11 ERA through 230 innings. That’s solid production for a pitcher spending half his games in the league’s most hitter-friendly environment.

Near the end of the ’21 campaign, Colorado signed Senzatela to a five-year extension that guaranteed him $50.5MM. The contract bought out his final two arbitration seasons, three would-be free agent years, and contained a club option for a fourth free agent campaign (2027).

The first three years of that deal will now be defined by injury. Senzatela’s 2022 was cut short when he tore the ACL in his left knee last August. The rehab from the subsequent surgery carried into May. He made it back from the knee issue but started only two games before the elbow injury.

Senzatela will be paid $12MM annually for the next three seasons. Colorado’s ’27 option is valued at $14MM and does not come with a buyout. Senzatela could have tacked on another $1MM to his 2024-27 salaries had he been healthy enough to toss 200+ innings in either of the past two seasons, though that hasn’t come to be.

The Rox are now going to be even harder pressed in attacking their pitching staff next winter. They’re currently relying on a patchwork group comprising Austin Gomber, Connor Seabold and Chase Anderson. The club just added veteran righty Chris Flexen on a non-roster pact, while the likes of Noah Davis and Peter Lambert are possible depth options.

Only Gomber, who has righted the ship after a horrid first month, looks likely to be in next year’s season-opening rotation. Freeland should be the staff ace, but Colorado could have to acquire three or four starting pitching options over the coming months. General manager Bill Schmidt acknowledged earlier this week the team would prioritize young pitching in potential deadline trades, though none of the veterans whom Colorado appears to be shopping is likely to return a prospect of especially high regard.

Rockies Place Kyle Freeland On Injured List

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The Rockies placed starter Kyle Freeland on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to July 11, with a subluxation in his non-throwing shoulder. Colorado also selected the contract of reliever Tommy Doyle, as reported this afternoon, and recalled Michael Toglia. To clear a spot on the 40-man roster for Doyle, lefty Ryan Rolison landed on the 60-day IL.

Freeland suffered the injury during his final start before the All-Star Break. He disclosed the shoulder and suffered a slight tear in the labrum, writes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Fortunately, Freeland won’t require surgery and is expected to pitch again at some point in 2023.

The 30-year-old southpaw has been Colorado’s most reliable pitcher this season. Over 19 starts, he’s worked 103 innings of 4.72 ERA ball. He’s striking out fewer than 15% of opponents but has kept his walk rate to a quality 7.7% clip. Freeland and Austin Gomber are the only Colorado starters to work over 60 innings; the former is the only pitcher on the team to keep an ERA below 5.00 while working more than 20 frames.

Rolison, a former first round pick, could have had an opportunity to carve out a spot with that pitching staff in flux. The 26-year-old southpaw has unfortunately had serious injury concerns over the past two seasons. He missed all of last year, undergoing a season-ending shoulder procedure in June. Rolison returned from the IL at the end of May but quickly experienced renewed shoulder discomfort.

There’s now a serious question if Rolison will be able to return this season. The IL placement will prevent him from making his MLB debut until mid-September at the earliest. The only silver lining is that he’ll collect MLB service and be paid at the prorated $720K big league minimum rate for time he spends rehabbing from here forward.

Rockies To Select Tommy Doyle

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The Rockies are adding right-hander Tommy Doyle to their roster today, per Thomas Harding of MLB.com and Patrick Lyons of DNVR. He’s not yet on the 40-man roster, so the club will need to make a corresponding move or moves to get him aboard.

Doyle, 27, got a cup of coffee with the Rockies during the 2020 season, logging 2 1/3 innings over three games. Unfortunately, he allowed six earned runs in that time and currently has a career ERA of 23.14. He spent all of 2021 in the minors before being outrighted off of the club’s roster at the end of that season, then spent all of 2022 on the minor league injured list.

This year, Doyle has been in Triple-A, tossing 26 2/3 innings with a tiny 1.01 ERA, striking out 27.9% of opponents and getting grounders on half the balls he’s allowed in play. He wouldn’t be able to continue keeping runs off the board at that rate with an 11.5% walk rate, .226 batting average on balls in play and 78.1% strand rate, but it’s been impressive enough to get him back into the big leagues and a chance to lower that career ERA.

The righty still has a couple of options and just 14 days of service time, allowing him to serve as an optionable depth piece for the club for the foreseeable future, as long as he continues to hang onto that 40-man roster spot.

Rockies To Sign Chris Flexen

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The Rockies have agreed to a deal with free-agent righty Chris Flexen, reports Thomas Harding of MLB.com. The O’Connell Sports client will join Colorado’s Triple-A rotation in Albuquerque for the time being and provide the Rox with some much-needed starting pitching depth.

Flexen, 29, was designated for assignment by the Mariners earlier in the month and went through an unusual cycle that saw him traded to the Mets and immediately designated for assignment a second time. The Mets took on the remainder of Flexen’s $8MM salary as a means of effectively purchasing reliever Trevor Gott from Seattle but weren’t interested in retaining Flexen themselves; he was released a few days after that second DFA.

Originally drafted by the Mets in 2012, Flexen never found his footing in his first several looks at the big league level but broke out overseas in the Korea Baseball Organization, thriving with the Doosan Bears in 2020. His lone season of KBO excellence (3.01 ERA in 116 2/3 innings) was enough for the Mariners to sign him to a two-year, $4.75MM deal the following offseason.

Flexen made good on that investment during his first two seasons in Seattle, logging a tidy 3.66 ERA in 317 1/3 innings, mostly working out of Seattle’s rotation. He was pushed to the bullpen following the 2022 trade deadline, when the Mariners acquired Luis Castillo, but generally continued pitching well in a relief setting. Even with that move to shorter stints, Flexen’s combined workload from 2021-22 was enough to trigger an $8MM vesting option for the 2023 season.

Heading into the 2023 campaign, Flexen was locked in as the Mariners’ long reliever and sixth starter — not because of his own performance but simply due to the depth the M’s had in the rotation. He quickly returned to the rotation after Robbie Ray required season-ending flexor surgery and a UCL repair, but things haven’t gone well for Flexen in any role this year. He appeared in 17 games — just four of them starts — and was tagged for a grisly 7.71 earned run average.

Flexen’s 3.66 ERA from 2021-22 never quite lined up with his below-average 16.5% strikeout rate, but a downturn of this magnitude still couldn’t have been expected. He’s been extraordinarily homer-prone this year (2.36 per nine innings) and has seen his generally strong command trend to worse-than-average levels as well (9.7% walk rate). That said, Flexen has also been plagued by a .350 average on balls in play, and his staggering 21.6% homer-to-flyball rate is sure to regress closer to his career 10% mark (though pitching in Colorado or Albuquerque likely won’t help that cause).

The Rockies aren’t in a position to be particularly picky with their rotation at the moment. Colorado entered the year with a suspect rotation in the first place and has seen the vast majority of its starters hit the injured list or perform poorly enough to be cut loose. Right-hander Jose Urena was released less than two months into the season despite signing a guaranteed $3.5MM deal over the winter. German Marquez underwent Tommy John surgery on May 12. Antonio Senzatela returned from last year’s torn ACL early in the season but lasted just two starts before being shut down with an elbow strain; he’s on the 60-day injured list at the moment. Young righty Ryan Feltner suffered a skull fracture in mid-May when he was hit by a Nick Castellanos comebacker. He thankfully avoided a more catastrophic injury but, like Senzatela, is on the 60-day IL and hasn’t pitched in two months.

Lefty Kyle Freeland was the lone member of the team’s Opening Day rotation who looked like he’d make it through the first half of the season unscathed — until he suffered a dislocated right (non-throwing) shoulder in the team’s final game before the All-Star break. He’ll quite likely head to the injured list himself.

In the wake of that staggering slate of injuries, the Rockies are left with a patchwork starting pitching staff that’s in dire need of reinforcements. Flexen may be bound for Triple-A right now, but that seems like it could be a short-term stay. Colorado’s only healthy starters at the moment are lefty Austin Gomber, righty Chase Anderson — another veteran acquired amid this wave of injuries — and right-hander Connor Seabold. They’ve taken looks at younger and less-experienced arms like Peter Lambert, Karl Kauffmann and Noah Davis this season, but none have performed well. On the whole, Rockies starters have “overtaken” the A’s for the worst ERA in baseball, currently sitting at a disastrous 6.47 mark in that regard.

There’s a clear path back to the Majors for Flexen in Colorado — perhaps clearer than with any other club that might’ve had interest. The Rays, for instance, were linked to Flexen over the weekend but have a deeper staff. There’s a short-term opening in Tampa Bay’s rotation, but it’s plenty feasible that as they get healthier, Flexen would again be pushed out. While pitching his home games at Coors Field certainly isn’t an enviable task, Flexen surely recognized the broader opportunity to settle back into a consistent starting role in Colorado and the staying power it presents. Even if his struggles continue, the Rockies will likely welcome a veteran innings eater to simply patch things over in the season’s final months. And, as the previously mentioned Urena demonstrated last year when he was acquired under relatively similar circumstances, if he handles that role well the Rockies could well be open to re-signing him on a guaranteed deal.

For now, Flexen will build up in Albuquerque and wait for a spot in the big leagues, but that opportunity could — and very likely will — present itself before long.

MLB To Open 2024 Season With Dodgers-Padres Series In South Korea

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Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association announced the “World Tour” schedule for the 2024 season. The ’24 campaign will kick off with a two-game series between the Padres and Dodgers in Seoul on March 20-21.

Those will be the first MLB regular season contests ever played in South Korea. The league had been slated to play four exhibition games in the nation — two in Seoul, two in Busan — over the 2022-23 offseason. That event was canceled, which MLB attributed to a contractual issue with a local promoter.

While the season-opening Korean set is the most notable development, the World Tour will also again take clubs to Mexico and the United Kingdom. The Rockies and Astros are slated for a two-game set in Mexico City on April 27-28. The Padres and Giants played there this April. MLB had previously announced a two-game set between the Mets and Phillies in London on June 8-9. The Cubs and Cardinals met in England last month.

Along with the three regular season series, MLB is sending the Rays and Red Sox to Santo Domingo for a pair of Spring Training games. The Dominican Republic exhibition contests will take place on March 9-10.

MLB and the MLBPA formed the World Tour program during the most recent round of collective bargaining. The league will schedule up to 24 regular season games and 16 Spring Training contests scattered throughout Latin America, Asia and Europe over the course of the CBA.

The Rockies Should Make Their Catcher Available At The Trade Deadline

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There’s no secret to the fact that the Rockies enter the 2023 trade deadline in position to be sellers. General manager Bill Schmidt already told Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post last week that he’s received particularly high levels of interest in his veteran relievers. Within that same interview, Schmidt noted that he’d entertain offers on position players, but it would take a “legitimate” offer on someone like catcher Elias Diaz, who’s signed through the 2024 season, for the Rox to consider such a move.

It’s understandable for any baseball operations leader to take that stance. Any general manager or president of baseball ops is going to insist on a quality return — particularly for a player with multiple seasons of affordable control — unless ownership is simply mandating that they slash payroll. That’s clearly not the case in Colorado, where owner Dick Monfort annually broadcasts optimism about his team’s chances and is generally willing to spend (to varying extents) in free agency and via extensions for in-house players.

Diaz, 32, is a first-time All-Star this season, thanks largely to a .277/.328/.435 batting line. He’s smacked nine homers and added 15 doubles and a triple while walking at a 7.2% clip against a 21.3% strikeout rate. It’s not exactly elite production; wRC+ pegs him nine percent below average after weighting for his home park, and OPS+ has him four percent below average. However, relative to other catchers throughout the league, Diaz has been quite productive. The average catcher in 2023 is hitting .233/.300/.384. Even when adjusting for home park and league run-scoring environment, catchers have rated 13% worse than average at the plate, by measure of wRC+. In that regard, Diaz has been an above-average hitter relative to his position.

Of course, that’s just one season. Diaz’s offense has been a roller coaster throughout his career, peaking with a .286/.339/.452 slash (114 wRC+) in a much more pitcher-friendly Pittsburgh setting back in 2018 but at times bottoming out as it did just last year, when he hit .228/.281/.368 despite playing half his games at Coors Field. He’s had some good fortune on balls in play this year, with a .327 BABIP that’s about 50 points higher than the career .274 mark he carried into the season. There’s no major uptick in quality of contact that’s driven that change, either; Diaz averaged 88.4 mph off the bat in 2022 with a 39.3% hard-hit rate and is at 88.3 mph and 40.1% in those respective areas this year. It’s possible his bat will take a step back in the season’s second half, although even if it does, it shouldn’t wilt to last year’s surprisingly anemic levels.

Defensively, Diaz is a bit of a mixed bag. Framing metrics have universally panned Diaz’s work over the past two seasons, but he was above-average as recently as 2021. In terms of pitch blocking and throwing, Diaz is one of the game’s best. Dating back to 2021, he ranks eighth among all big league catchers in Statcast’s new Blocks Above Average metric, trailing only a handful of elite defenders (Austin Hedges, Sean Murphy, Jose Trevino, Jacob Stallings, J.T. Realmuto, Yan Gomes, Adley Rutschman).

It’s a similar story with Diaz’s throwing; he regularly boasts better-than-average pop times, and as recently as 2021 he paced the NL with a gaudy 42% caught-stealing rate. He’s at 29% this year, which is far better than it would’ve sounded in previous years, as the new rule changes in 2023 have contributed to a league-wide drop in caught-stealing numbers. The league average typically sat around 25% in seasons past, but it’s down to 20% this year. Statcast pegs Diaz as third-best in MLB with its Caught-Stealing Above Average metric (which strives to gauge throws on a case-by-case basis rather than treating all stolen base scenarios as equal).

There’s also Diaz’s contract to consider. He signed a three-year, $14.5MM extension with the Rockies a couple years ago, buying out his final arbitration season and first two free-agent years. He’s in the second year of that contract right now, earning a reasonable $5.5MM salary with a $6MM salary owed to him in 2024. It’s an affordable enough contract that any club could stomach it.

Relative to open-market prices, Diaz’s annual salary lines up with the type of money that steady mid-30s veterans or younger bounceback options might typically find. For context, Omar Narvaez signed a two-year, $15MM contract with an opt-out/player option this offseason despite having a down year in 2022. Mike Zunino signed a one-year, $6MM deal while seeking a rebound in Cleveland. The previously mentioned Hedges commanded a $5MM guarantee due solely to his defense. Diaz may not be an unmitigated bargain, but he’s at the very least a fairly priced backup — arguably one with some surplus value on his deal.

In general, it’s been a poor year for catchers throughout the league. Only 11 teams have received a wRC+ mark better than Diaz’s 91 from their catchers in 2023. Contenders and playoff hopefuls like the Rays, Astros, Reds, Marlins, Padres and Guardians have all received awful offensive production behind the plate. Speculatively speaking, Diaz could make sense for any of the bunch. That doesn’t mean they’ll all have interest, of course, but there ought to be a market for the veteran.

The Rockies, meanwhile, once again find themselves without a viable path to the postseason. Schmidt has voiced an understandable desire to add pitching to his system, and it stands to reason that there are clubs who might be willing to part with some arms in order to pry loose a catcher who could help not just for the current postseason push but also solidify the position next year. Colorado’s top catching prospect, Drew Romo, isn’t having a particularly strong season in Double-A this year but could conceivably be up in 2024 nonetheless. In the meantime, there’s little harm for a last-place club to let a journeyman like current backup Austin Wynns soak up the majority of starts in the season’s final couple months. He’s a sound defender who posted decent offensive production as recently as 2022. As far as 2024 is concerned, the Rox could always sign a veteran to a one-year deal this winter if need be.

Schmidt has pushed back against the notion of tearing everything down and trotting a Triple-A team out, citing the game’s integrity. That’s a commendable tack, and it provides some context for the type of offers he’d need to part with Diaz and other veterans. Diaz won’t simply be given away for the best offer, nor should he. It also bears pointing out that midseason trades of catchers can be difficult to pull off; acquiring a backstop in the midst of a playoff push and asking him to learn a new pitching staff on the fly is no easy task.

If no serious offers present themselves for Diaz, so be it. The Rockies can always listen in the offseason or hope for better results on a team scale in 2024. However, the Rox also have a history of hanging onto players who appear to be obvious trade candidates, either extending them (e.g Daniel Bard, C.J. Cron, arguably Diaz himself) or simply letting them walk in free agency (e.g Jon Gray, Trevor Story). Schmidt contended to Saunders that he simply didn’t receive “legitimate” offers for players like Gray and Story, and that’s certainly possible. Story, in particular, at least netted the Rox a draft pick after rejecting a qualifying offer.

Diaz won’t be a QO candidate post-’24, however, and his trade value is very arguably at its apex. He’s a first-time All-Star with strong throwing/blocking skills, enough offense for his position and an affordable contract. This summer is the best time to extract a quality return for him. Colorado shouldn’t simply trade him for a handful of magic beans, but setting too high an asking price and holding onto him runs the risk of again losing a quality player for little to no return at a time when the organization as a whole is hungry for quality minor league talent.

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