The Astros are in danger of missing the postseason for the first time in eight years. Houston has not only made the playoffs in each year since 2016, they’ve won at least one round in every season and picked up a pair of World Series. This year’s squad is seven games under .500 halfway through June, carrying a 31-38 record that has them above only the Angels, A’s and White Sox in the American League.
Houston has a franchise-high payroll and an aging core that has had ample success. They’re uninterested in giving up on 2024. General manager Dana Brown said at the start of the month that he “(didn’t) see any scenario” where the team sells. Brown indicated he expected to add at the deadline despite their current place in the standings. To that end, Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that the team would like to add two starting pitchers before the deadline.
The rotation has been arguably the team’s biggest weakness, so it’s a straightforward target. They’ve been hit hard by injuries that have exposed a lack of upper minors depth. Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia have yet to make their season debuts after undergoing arm surgeries in 2023. The Astros lost Cristian Javier and José Urquidy to Tommy John surgeries within the past couple weeks. Those procedures were announced after Brown declared that he couldn’t envision selling, but both pitchers were headed for testing at the time. The GM presumably knew that season-ending surgery was at least a realistic possibility.
That leaves Houston with a rotation of Framber Valdez, Justin Verlander, Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti. Valdez and Verlander are assured of season-long rotation spots so long as they’re healthy. Hunter Brown has righted the ship after a terrible April with a 3.05 ERA and a 27.4% strikeout rate over his past seven starts. Blanco has a 2.67 ERA while punching out nearly 24% of opponents in 12 outings.
It’s a reasonable front four, particularly if Brown continues pitching like an upper mid-rotation arm. The depth remains perilously thin. Arrighetti has had an up-and-down rookie campaign, allowing 5.33 earned runs per nine over his first 11 MLB starts. His run prevention has improved over the past month. Arrighetti has allowed three or fewer runs in five of his last six outings. He hasn’t been especially efficient, though, issuing multiple walks in all 11 appearances. The 24-year-old has shown the stuff to miss bats against big league hitters, yet his debut season hasn’t been seamless.
Even if Houston isn’t actively looking to nudge Arrighetti from the starting five, they’d be ill-prepared to handle any other injuries. J.P. France is on the minor league injured list. Eric Lauer has allowed 14 runs in 15 Triple-A innings since signing a minor league deal. Arrighetti was the only upper minors pitching prospect whom most evaluators regarded highly in a thin farm system. Garcia and McCullers could return around the trade deadline. There’s some level of risk with both pitchers finishing rehabs from lengthy absences — particularly McCullers, who has an extended injury history.
It’s not clear how highly the Astros might aim in their search for starting pitching. It’s unlikely they’ll land multiple mid-rotation or better arms, particularly without a ton of top talent to shop from the farm system (and a probable need to acquire first base help). Landing one mid-rotation starter and an innings-eating depth arm could be attainable. It’s debatable whether the Astros should subtract from their minor league pipeline to upgrade the 2024 roster — MLBTR’s Steve Adams argued for Houston to be more amenable to dealing away veterans in a piece for Front Office subscribers this evening — but the front office is clearly still looking for short-term help.
Garrett Crochet could be the prize of this summer’s rotation trade market. The White Sox would need to be blown away to deal him with two more seasons of club control. They’re likelier to trade Erick Fedde, who is under contract through 2025. The Marlins will probably move Jesús Luzardo and could trade one of Trevor Rogers or Braxton Garrett. The likes of Zach Eflin, Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi, Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Austin Gomber and Cal Quantrill could also come available closer to the deadline.
