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Transaction Retrospection: The Doug Fister Trade

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The Tigers opened the 2011 season with a rotation that consisted of Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello, Phil Coke and Brad Penny. With the non-Verlanders of that group (particularly Coke and Penny) underperforming, the team sought help for the back end of the rotation in July.

They got that help by acquiring Doug Fister (and reliever David Pauley) from the Mariners in exchange for four players: 20-year-old third baseman Francisco Martinez, 26-year-old outfielder Casper Wells, 25-year-old southpaw Charlie Furbush and a player to be named later that would be 22-year-old right-hander Chance Ruffin.

It's hard to believe that the Tigers, Mariners or even Fister himself were prepared for the results of this trade, so let's look at it on a player-by-player level…

The Major League Side

  • Doug Fister: Fister was 27 at the time of the trade and had less than two years of Major League service time. He'd been solid but not spectacular in his brief career, as he was the owner of a 3.81 ERA, 5.2 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 378 innings for the Mariners. He was in the midst of his best season when he was dealt, having pitched to a 3.33 ERA in 146 1/3 innings. FisterFister channeled his inner Greg Maddux upon arriving in Detroit though, allowing just 14 earned runs with a 57-to-5 K/BB ratio in 70 1/3 innings for the AL Central champs. He's significantly upped his strikeout rate in Detroit, and all told he's given them 232 innings of 2.95 ERA ball with a 7.5 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9. Fangraphs pegs Fister's tenure in Detroit at a whopping 5.8 wins above replacement. He's under control for another three seasons and is set to earn $4MM this year after being eligible for arbitration for the first time this past winter. 
  • David Pauley: Pauley is perhaps the forgotten man in this trade, although there's probably a reason for that. The right-hander threw just 19 2/3 innings for the Tigers after the trade, allowing 10 runs on 26 hits and six walks with just 10 strikeouts. Pauley was ulimately released by the Tigers the following spring and appeared in just 16 2/3 innings for the Angels and Blue Jays last year.
  • Charlie Furbush: Furbush floundered in Seattle's rotation in 2011, posting a 6.62 ERA in 10 starts. He thrived when moved to a bullpen role in 2012, however, thanks in large part to trading his curveball-changeup mix for a devastating slider to complement his heater. A triceps strain cost him a month of action last season, but when he was healthy he dominated lefties (.404 OPS) and held right-handed hitters in check as well (.637 OPS). Furbush can be a key bullpen piece in Seattle for a long time; he's not eligible for arbitration until the 2014-15 offseason, and he's under team control through 2017.
  • Casper Wells: Wells brought a good amount of power and some excellent defense to the Mariners. He clubbed 17 homers in addition to a .225/.304/.406 batting line (102 OPS+) and was eight runs above average in 893 innings for Seattle, per The Fielding Bible. Wells is capable of handling all three outfield positions, but the Mariners made the questionable decision to designate him for assignment last week to give Jason Bay a chance.

The Prospect Side

  • Francisco Martinez: Martinez was ranked as the Tigers' No. 4 prospect heading into the 2011 season, per Baseball America. He had reached Double-A at just 20 years of age — a rare feat that was a testament to the "live-bodied, athletic" label that BA slapped on him. He hit .310/.326/.481 for the Mariners' Double-A affiliate in 2011 following the trade, prompting BA to rank him as the team's No. 6 prospect entering 2012. BA praised his bat speed, stating that he "all the raw tools to fit the profile of an everyday third baseman, with the added bonus of plus speed." Martinez took a huge step backward in 2012, however, hitting just .227/.315/.295 in his second Double-A stint. He's dropped to No. 22 on BA's list of Top 30 Mariners prospects and No. 19 according to MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo. The Mariners tried Martinez in center field for 15 games in 2012 because of his plus speed, and Mayo notes that he'll play there exclusively in 2013. Mayo also points out that despite Martinez's struggles in 2012, he did improve his plate discipline — an area in which he'd previously struggled. He'll repeat Double-A in 2013, which isn't as grim as it sounds when considering he just turned 22 in September.
  • Chance Ruffin: Ruffin had to be included as a PTBNL because he had been selected by the Tigers in the 2010 draft (48th overall). He had entered the 2011 season as the Tigers' No. 7 prospect, per BA, and he carried the same designation with the Mariners into the 2012 season. Ruffin actually pitched 14 innings for Seattle in 2011 (3.86 ERA, 15-to-9 K/BB ratio) but reported to Triple-A in 2012. The results were ugly. The Texas alum posted a gruesome 5.99 ERA in 70 2/3 innings and saw his K/9 plummet from 11.1 to 6.9, while his BB/9 increased to 4.5. The brutal season was enough to drop him off Mayo's Top 20 list and knock him back to 27th on BA's Top 30 entering the 2013 season. BA cites erosion of his solid command in college and inconsitent mechanics as the reason for his downfall: "He lands on a stiff front leg and throws across his body, hurting his ability to locate his pitches where he wants. His long arm swing in the back and lower release point make it easy for lefthanders to pick up his pitches, and they hit .294/.348/.516 against him last year." The good news is that BA still likes his stuff, praising a 90-93 mph fastball that can touch 95 mph when needed and a plus slider with late break, which BA calls a true out pitch.

It's easy to see why the Tigers look like big winners in this trade, as the two key pieces of the deal for the Mariners have both taken large steps backward in their development. However, Martinez won't be 23 until September — the same month in which Ruffin will turn 25 — and the team does seem to have a solid bullpen piece already at the Major League level in Furbush. Martinez won't be at such a large age disadvantage in the Southern League this year, which could benefit his numbers. Ruffin will also open the season at Double-A as the Mariners plan to convert him to a starting pitcher (hat tip: Ryan Divish of the Tacoma News Tribune).

At the time of the trade, ESPN's Keith Law wrote that the Mariners did well to acquire such a strong package for Fister and Pauley, but clearly the scales have tipped in Detroit's favor. A rebound from Martinez or successful to transition to starting for Ruffin would make this trade look fair, but even if that happens I doubt you'll ever hear the Tigers or their fans complaining about the Doug Fister trade.

Baseball America's 2013 Prospect Handbook was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Minor Moves: Gallagher, Elarton, Livingston

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We'll keep track of Wednesday's minor moves right here…

  • MLB.com's Brian McTaggart confirms a report from KHOU-TV's Daniel Gotera that Sean Gallagher, Scott Elarton and Bobby Livingston have signed with the independent league Sugar Land Skeeters (both links go to Twitter). The 27-year-old Gallagher, a former prized Cubs prospect, has a 5.64 ERA in 207 1/3 Major League innings. He last pitched for the Pirates and Padres in 2010. Elarton, a veteran of 10 big league seasons, has a career 5.29 ERA in 1065 1/3 innings but hasn't pitched since 2008. Livingston, 30, has a 6.31 ERA in 61 1/3 innings for the Reds and Mariners. He last appeared in the Majors in 2007.

AL East Notes: Orioles, Victorino, Cano

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The Orioles made a surprising playoff run in 2012, but SB Nation's Rob Neyer can see why people question their ability to repeat. He argues that the Orioles were merely average in terms of runs scored and runs allowed in 2012, and expecting players like Brian Roberts and Nolan Reimold to perform better than they have in years is going to invite critics. Here's more out of the AL East…

  • Shane Victorino inked a three-year, $39MM deal with the Red Sox this offseason, but he told Andy Martino of the New York Daily News that he turned down a bigger offer from the Indians to join the Boston-New York rivalry. Victorino says that Cleveland offered $44MM over four years, but his previous experiences playing at Fenway Park and the intensity of the fans swayed him to leave some money on the table.
  • Scott Boras was "blindsided" by Robinson Cano's decision to switch agents yesterday, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Cano, who still must pay Boras the commission on 2013's $15MM salary, had signed a representation agreement with Boras as recently as March 20. Brodie Van Wagenen, who will be Cano's primary baseball representative with CAA/Roc Nation Sports, said he wouldn't publicly discuss a new opening for Cano to sign a contract, but noted that Cano loves New York and would like to stay.
  • There are still roadblocks to getting a new deal with the Yankees worked out for Cano and his new representatives, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman wonders about conflicts of interest surrounding Jay-Z — a lifelong Yankee fan who will perform at Yankee Stadium this year — negotiating against the team. He also wonders whether or not the Yanks will want to give another player that's on the wrong side of 30 a $200MM contract.

Quick Hits: Red Sox, Posey, Cano, Indians

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Pirates GM Neal Huntington and Rays GM Andrew Friedman claim that their decisions to leave Gerrit Cole (Pirates) and Wil Myers (Rays) in the minors to start the 2013 season were motivated not by service-time concerns, but by those players' readiness, MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo reports. Mayo says the scouts he's spoken to can't blame Huntington for sending Cole to Triple-A Indianapolis, since Cole has very limited experience at that level. Friedman, meanwhile, says that he needs to be sure a player is ready before having him compete in the tough AL East. "The AL East will expose very quickly any weaknesses that you have," he says. "So when we bring someone here, we need to feel that he's ready to step in and help us win right away."

Red Sox GM Ben Cherington, in contrast, says his organization promoted Jackie Bradley Jr. to start the season — even though doing so could affect Bradley's timetable for free agency — because Bradley is one of the organization's 25 best players, Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald reports. "At the end, if there was that level of confidence that he was part of the best 25-man roster, then we felt he should be on the team. That’s part of our responsibility to the fans and to the organization," Cherington says. In addition, Cherington notes, the Red Sox begin their season with plenty of games within their division, and it's especially crucial that they do well in those games. Their first four series against the Yankees, Blue Jays, Orioles and Rays, all AL East opponents. Here are more notes from around the majors.

  • The Giants have locked up catcher Buster Posey with an eight-year, $159MM extension, but in Keith Law's latest podcast for ESPN, Posey's agent, Jeff Berry of Creative Artist Agency (CAA), contemplates what might have happened if Posey and the Giants had decided to go year-to-year through the arbitration system. Berry argues that Posey's situation would have been unique, because Posey has won an MVP and a Rookie of the Year award and has played for two World Series-winning teams, but after missing much of 2011 to injury, he doesn't have particularly impressive career bulk counting stats, which are a factor in arbitration hearings. "The challenge, first and foremost, in the arb system was looking at, 'Wow, this guy has accomplished things that no one else has ever done, but [among superstars in the arbitration process] he's also played less than anyone,'" Berry says.
  • Reacting to Robinson Cano's decision to fire Scott Boras and hire CAA and the rapper Jay-Z as his representation, one agent says that "Jay-Z doesn’t know s— about baseball," Michael O'Keeffe of the New York Daily News writes. "You don’t hire a real estate agent to do neurosurgery," the agent continues. O'Keeffe goes on to note that, of course, Jay-Z will not be negotiating a deal for Cano, who will be a free agent after the season. That duty will go to CAA, which represents Posey and a number of other MLB stars. Here are more reactions to Cano's agency switch.
  • This year's Indians are excited about the team's offseason spending spree, Marla Ridenour of the Akron Beacon Journal reports. "Hats off to Chris Antonetti and the Dolan family, after losing 94 games [in 2012] they very easily could have folded up shop and said, 'Let’s wait for a few more young kids to develop and see what we’ve got,'" says Jason Giambi, who signed a minor-league deal with Cleveland in February. Instead, he says, "[t]hey went out and got some guys and spent some money. They put together a good ballclub, now we have to answer the bell and play good."
  • The Rangers had scouts watching pitcher Joba Chamberlain in spring training, but the Rangers and Yankees never ended up discussing a deal, George A. King III and Zach Braziller of the New York Post write. King and Braziller note that Chamberlain impressed the Yankees with a spring training performance that included nine strikeouts in 10 1/3 innings.

NL Notes: Reds, Mets, Diamondbacks

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Outfielder Ryan Ludwick injured his right shoulder in the Reds' season opener and will need surgery. The Reds could promote Derrick Robinson or Denis Phipps to take Ludwick's place on the roster, Jon Fay of Cincinnati.com writes. Chris Heisey will take the bulk of Ludwick's playing time in left, so that makes an option like prospect Donald Lutz somewhat unlikely, since the Reds might prefer that he play every day. The Reds appear to have enough depth to avoid pursuing an option from outside the organization. Ludwick re-signed with the Reds for two years and $15MM in December. Here are more notes from around the National League.

  • Pitcher Shaun Marcum is on the disabled list with biceps tendinitis, and the Mets will need to add another starting pitcher, ESPNNewYork.com's Adam Rubin contends (on Twitter). Chris Young, who pitched 115 innings for the Mets in 2012, is a free agent after being released by the Nationals, but the Mets did not appear interested (Twitter link) in Young several days ago, and as yet there have been no indications that Marcum's injury changes their stance.
  • Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers guarantees his team will win at least 90 games, Dan Bickley of AZCentral.com reports. "In 2011, I put down 85 and we won 94. Last year, I had 89 (wins) and we won 81," Towers says. "But I’ve been thinking about it. I’ve got a pretty good idea. I guarantee it’s going to start with a nine." The Diamondbacks are coming off an offseason filled with what Bickley calls "debatable, combustible maneuvers," including the trades of Justin Upton and Trevor Bauer.

Cubs Sign Ryan Sweeney

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The Cubs have signed outfielder Ryan Sweeney to a minor-league deal, Evan Drellich of MassLive.com reports. Sweeney was released by the Red Sox this weekend. Sweeney is represented by Reynolds Sports Management. Sweeney, a native Iowan, will report to Triple-A Iowa. In 2012, Sweeney hit .260/.303/.373 in 204 at-bats with Boston.

Jeff Johnson of the Cedar Rapids Gazette seems to have been the first to report that Sweeney was headed to the Cubs organization.

AL Notes: Rodriguez, Andrus, Kazmir, Snyder

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The changing nature of free agency has been a hot topic of late, as MLBTR noted earlier today. A series of high-profile extensions this spring have reinforced an apparent new trend towards teams retaining their best young players with long-term deals. As Larry Stone of the Seattle Times posits, this trend also increases the importance of scouting and developing young players, with MLB's recent spending limits potentially leveling the playing field between large and small-market clubs.

  • Alex Rodriguez's record-breaking 2007 contract extension with the Yankees was re-visited in a piece on Saturday from David Waldstein of the New York Times. Waldstein reports on the events that ensued after Rodriguez exercised the opt-out clause in his contract, with the announcement infamously coming in the midst of what turned out to be the final game of the World Series. After receiving counsel from people ranging from Mariano Rivera to Warren Buffett, Rodriguez apologized to Hal and Hank Steinbrenner to pave the way to a new deal with the Yanks. The unprecedented contract included a $265MM salary guarantee over ten seasons, a $10MM signing bonus, and career home run milestone payments of up to $30MM. With Rodriguez now suffering from some combination of ineffectiveness, injury, and intrigue, Waldstein writes, New York may be exploring a variety of ways to get out from under the deal.
  • An opt-out clause could play a big role in another potential ten-year commitment: the recently-inked eight-year, $120MM extension between Elvis Andrus and the Rangers. As Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports explains, the deal's opt-out clause is likely to turn the Andrus extension into a four-year, $60MM deal. While this seems to be a big concession by Texas, Rosenthal says it was necessary to lock up four of the Scott Boras client's free agent years. The club will pursue insurance to protect itself in the event that Andrus does not exercise the opt-out clause due to injury. The deal also gives the Rangers plenty of flexibility to take advantage of super-prospect Jurickson Profar, either in their lineup (at second base) or via trade.
  • While still not conforming his new deal, Andrus commented today on his relationship with Boras, as reported by T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. Discussing his agent's penchant for testing the market, Andrus said: "We're the boss. I know everybody thinks that about Scott but it's different if you're the one in that position. He works for us. I know he tries to get the best deal that he can but it comes down to my choice and what's better for me and my family."
  • Scott Kazmir appears close to coming all the way back to the big leagues after being activated by the Indians, writes Paul Hoynes of The Plain Dealer. In a corresponding move, the club optioned left-hander Nick Hagadone to Triple-A. Kazmir, who will now receive a $1MM base salary after initially signing a minor league deal, may still have to wait to actually make an appearance after straining his ab. As the Indians noted on Twitter, today's transaction allows the club to back-date a Kazmir DL stint if he is not ready to go.
  • The Red Sox are signing infielder Brandon Snyder to a minor league deal, as first reported by Chris Cotillo (Twitter link). Alex Speier of WEEI.com confirmed (via Twitter) that Snyder, who was recently released by the Rangers, has signed with Boston and is headed to Triple-A Pawtucket.

Outrighted To Triple-A: David Huff

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Today’s outright assignments..

  • The Indians announced that left-hander David Huff cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A Columbus.  The Tribe designated Huff for assignment on March 31st as he was out of options and did not make the team.  Huff has posted a 5.30 ERA with 5.0 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 52 starts and three relief appearances for the Tribe over parts of four seasons.

Reactions To Robinson Cano’s Agency Move

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If Robinson Cano's decision to leave agent Scott Boras was a shocker, then it's hard to find a word to describe his new choice for representation.  Rapper Jay-Z, who is a minority owner of the Brooklyn Nets, will be a part of Cano's team with his Roc Nation Sports marketing venture.  While the actual negotiating on Cano's next deal will be handled by the folks at CAA, it's a surprise to see Jay-Z leap from the pages of Hoops Rumors to MLBTR.  Here's more on Cano's big move..

  • It remains to be seen whether the change in representation will benefit the Yankees in their quest to re-sign Cano, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  Affiliating with Jay-Z’s new company infers that Cano wants to market himself outside of baseball and that would best be accomplished in New York or Los Angeles.  The Dodgers, of course, are expected to pursue Cano if he hits the open market.
  • Yankees execs are playing today's news low key, but they know that it improves their chances of retaining the second baseman, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post.  A person in the know tells Sherman (link) that that Cano's recent meet and greet with LeBron James was set up by Jay-Z as part of pitch to woo him away from Boras.
  • An ex-teammate of Cano believes that the decision to partner up with Jay-Z means that he'll be staying in pinstripes, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.
  • It may be true that the move makes him more likely to stay in New York, but Rob Neyer of SB Nation cautions everyone not to make too much of it.  To Neyer, the change is about Cano looking to be known to a non-baseball audience.
  • A source close to Cano told John Harper of the New York Daily News (on Twitter) that Cano wants a big payday but also wants to stay a Yankee.  The 30-year-old didn't see that happening with Boras, who would want to hunt down the biggest contract possible.  The source stressed that Cano isn't comfortable with so much attention on his impending free agency and wants to get a deal done "sooner rather than later'' (link).
  • Barring something unexpected, Cano is going to be a Yankee for a long time, maybe for the rest of his career, writes Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports.  Meanwhile, the move could be a game changer in the agency game.  While Boras has lost some big names in recent years and got less than expected for Kyle Lohse and Michael Bourn this offseason, he is the Jay-Z of baseball agents, Passan writes.
  • CAA's Brodie Van Wagenen, who will serve as the direct representative for Cano says that his aim is to keep Cano's focus on baseball, tweets Bryan Hoch of MLB.com.  "Our mandate is to minimize his distractions while helping him achieve his goals on and off the field."
  • Cano declined to speak when asked if he would comment on Boras reportedly being caught unaware of his decision to switch agencies, Hoch writes.
  • Buster Olney of ESPN.com (on Twitter) sees Cano working out an extension with the Yankees after the agency switch.  

Phillies Claim Ezequiel Carrera Off Waivers

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The Phillies announced that they have claimed outfielder Ezequiel Carrera off of waivers from the Indians.  To make room on the 40-man roster, the Phillies have designated fellow outfielder Ender Inciarte for assignment.

Carrera, 25, has appeared in 116 big league games for the Indians across the last two seasons, posting a .255/.306/.347 slash line.  He has spent parts of the last three seasons at the Triple-A level where he has hit .286/.351/.372.  Carrera first came to Cleveland by way of Seattle in the deal that sent Russell Branyan to the M's.

Inciarte, 22, was plucked from the Diamondbacks in the Rule 5 draft by the Phillies in December.  The youngster, who is said to be strong defensively but lacking a major league-ready bat, split time between Class-A and Advanced-A ball in 2012.  Last season, he had a combined slash line of .307/.376/.421

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