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Jose Altuve Rejoins Octagon; Leaves Boras

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Jose Altuve's fling with the Boras Corporation has ended.  The Astros' second baseman recently left Boras and signed with Scott Pucino and Wil Polidor of Octagon, where he had been before, reported MLB.com's Brian McTaggart last night.  Though Altuve was with Boras for about a year, the switch went under the radar.

"It's not our business," commented Astros GM Jeff Luhnow regarding his players' choice of agency.  Asked last week about extending Altuve, Luhnow said, "We'll consider any opportunity to keep him here over the long haul."  Boras clients rarely sign team-friendly extensions early in their careers.  As far as I can tell, a Boras client has never signed a deal that bought out free agent years with less than two years of big league service, and the only such deal with a Boras client with less than three years was Carlos Gonzalez's precedent-setting contract in January 2011.  Bottom line: the switch back to Octagon increases the chances of the Astros getting a deal done, if they're so inclined.

Altuve, 23, is hitting .327/.361/.430 in 180 plate appearances this season and is bidding to represent the Astros at the All-Star game for the second consecutive year.  He'll have two years of Major League service time after the season.  Alcides Escobar (four years, $10.5MM) and Cameron Maybin (five years, $25MM) may provide a few imperfect points of reference, having signed as low-power players with two-plus years of service.  Altuve's resume should look better than those comps, given his strong batting averages and the potential pair of All-Star nods.  Perhaps he can get around $30MM on a five-year deal.  The Astros have some leverage, however, as home run and RBI power pays in arbitration, and that's not Altuve's game (though he could knock in 70 this year).  Plus, he won't be arbitration eligible until after the 2014 season and is under team control through 2017, so there's no reason for Luhnow to make a player-friendly offer.

Choo Not Thinking About Long-Term Deal

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"That's too far away," Shin-Soo Choo told Tyler Kepner of the New York Times in reference to questions about the Reds outfielder's future.  Choo, 30, is eligible for free agency after the season, the rare quality player who has resisted multiyear offers and simply compiled his six years of service.  He is currently tied for the MLB lead with 36 runs scored, and he's third with a .455 on-base percentage.  The early success has elevated Choo to the #2 spot on our 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings, behind only Robinson Cano.

Agent Scott Boras was quick to sing his client's praises, commenting to Kepner, "The amazing thing about his career is that he’s been hidden.  Even in an off-year, his on-base percentage is .350. He’s got a career .386 on-base percentage and an O.P.S. that’s .856. Go around the league and find an outfielder who has, essentially, 15-homer power and an .850 O.P.S. Couple that with a .290 average — that’s rare air."  Choo's career OPS ranks 26th among active players and fifth among active outfielders.  Ryan Braun, Matt Holliday, and Josh Hamilton are locked up, while Carlos Beltran will turn 37 early in his next contract.

The one knock on Choo has been his struggles against left-handed pitching.  He batted .239/.329/.318 against them from 2010-12, with the worst of it coming last year.  Through 212 plate appearances this year, Choo's splits have been even more extreme.  He's hitting .368/.510/.684 with nine home runs in 151 plate appearances against righties, and .146/.317/.188 in 61 plate appearances against lefties.  Choo has been below-average defensively this year in center field.  He's naturally a corner outfielder, but it remains to be seen if he can play average defense once he returns to right field.

The Mets should make a strong attempt to sign Choo after the season, suggests Kepner, and when asked about the possibility by John DeMarzo of the New York Post, Choo at least wouldn't rule it out.  Of course, as with most free agents, Choo's next contract will cover post-prime years, perhaps age 31-35.  With Boras doing the negotiating, we can't rule out a sixth year or a salary in the $18-20MM range, plus the loss of a draft pick.  The last thing the Mets need is another large, regrettable contract just as those of Johan Santana and Jason Bay expire; the big question is whether Choo will age gracefully.

Injury Updates On 2014 Free Agent Starters

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The list of starting pitchers eligible for free agency after this season appears unimpressive, in large part due to injuries to key players.  The latest:

  • The Cubs' Matt Garza makes his season debut tonight in Pittsburgh.  He last appeared on a Major League mound on July 21st of last year.  Previously a durable pitcher, Garza wasn't even expected to land on the DL after being forced out of that July start with triceps cramps.  The injury was later determined to be a stress reaction in his elbow.  There was talk of Garza being ready for Opening Day, but the supposedly mild lat strain suffered in February will limit him to fewer than 25 starts this year, even if he makes all of them moving forward.
  • The Blue Jays' Josh Johnson suffered a triceps injury in late April, but made a solid minor league rehab start yesterday.  For a scouting report on the outing, check out Danny Knobler's latest from CBS Sports.  Barring a setback he should be ready in early June, and he may be auditioning for a July trade if Toronto's fortunes don't turn around.  Garza and Johnson would both benefit greatly from midseason trades, as they'd become ineligible for qualifying offers after the season.
  • Rehabbing from July flexor tendon surgery, the Rangers' Colby Lewis was working at 84-86 miles per hour in a rehab start yesterday.  Lewis hopes to return before the All-Star break, but admitted yesterday's velocity "isn't going to cut it."  
  • The Giants' Ryan Vogelsong fractured two bones in his right hand after being hit by a pitch yesterday, amid what MLB.com's Chris Haft called a "redemptive pitching effort."  The Giants have a $6.5MM club option on Vogelsong after the season with a $300K buyout.
  • The Padres' Tim Stauffer was promoted Friday, fully recovered from flexor tendon surgery in August.  He'll begin in a relief role, but perhaps can be a rotation option down the line.  Stauffer made 31 starts with a 3.73 ERA in 2011.
  • The Cardinals' Chris Carpenter, working his way back from a shoulder injury, threw an extended bullpen session on Saturday.  Carpenter's teammate Jake Westbrook is on the DL for elbow inflammation and biceps tendinitis, but according to this report from MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch, he's "hopeful that Saturday's start is the last one that he will have to miss."  Westbrook has a $9.5MM mutual option after the season with a $1MM buyout.
  • The Indians' Brett Myers, on the shelf since late April with an elbow injury, is set to make what is hopefully his final rehab appearance today.  The Tribe holds a club option on him after the season. 
  • After a DL stint for lower back stiffness, the Mariners' Aaron Harang will start tonight in Los Angeles.
  • The Orioles' Tsuyoshi Wada will make his second minor league rehab start tonight for the Norfolk Tides, as he tries to recover from Tommy John surgery and provide some value to the O's.
  • The Pirates' Jeff Karstens made his second minor league rehab start on Saturday, as he recovers from shoulder inflammation.
  • The Rockies' Jeff Francis was placed on the DL last Thursday with a groin strain, but may be able to return when eligible.
  • The Yankees' Andy Pettitte hit the DL last week with a strained trapezius muscle.  The 40-year-old is expected to return when eligible.
  • After the 2012 season, only four free agent starters were coming off 200-inning seasons.  Currently, 13 impending free agents seem to have a shot: Dan Haren, Tim Hudson, Jon Garland, Joe Saunders, Tim Lincecum, Paul Maholm, Bartolo Colon, Jason Marquis, Ervin Santana, Jason Vargas, Hiroki Kuroda, Bronson Arroyo, and Ricky Nolasco. 

Midseason Top Prospect Trades

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How often are top prospects traded midseason?  Using trade periods of June through August, and Baseball America's preseason top 100 prospect lists, let's take a look at the last four years:

If recent history is any indication, we should expect between three and seven top 100 prospects to be traded this summer.  Out of the 22 prospects traded in the last four years, only three were top 30 guys: Smoak, Turner, and Wallace in 2010.  Wallace's 2010 trade was something of a prospect challenge trade, however, and is an exception.  It's fair to expect most traded prospects to be in the 40-100 range on the rankings.  Of those prospects on BA's 2013 list, 33 play for teams currently above .500:

Players like Teheran and Arenado seem less likely to be traded, as they're holding down full-time roles.  Also, since top 100 prospects are created prior to the season, they don't account for prospects whose stock dropped in the minor league season leading up to the trade deadline, such as Turner, Alderson or Cox, or others whose stock rose.  Vizcaino is an example of an injured prospect who was traded, but it seems unlikely in the case of the Rays' Lee, who is probably out for the season due to a knee injury.  

We also have to consider team and GM history.  Even if my brief four-year sample, the Phillies traded four of the 22 prospects in a pair of major trades, but the club may not profile as a buyer in two months.  A player like the D'Backs' Davidson seems to represent the perfect storm of a summer prospect trade: he's a bit of a forgotten prospect, he's blocked at third base, and he plays for a contender.

One other factor is the new CBA.  The inability to spend significantly over slot  in the draft may compel teams to hold onto top prospects more tightly, while the inability to recoup value on a rental in the form of draft pick compensation may limit trades of those players.

NL East Notes: Braves, Brown, Quintero

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Braves rookie Julio Teheran came within an inning of his first big league shutout tonight before a Josh Willingham homer halted that effort. The Braves hung on to win, preserving a three-game lead on the NL East. As it stands right now, only Atlanta has a positive run differential in that division. Here's more on the Braves and their NL East rivals…

  • The Braves are already without Jonny Venters following Tommy John surgery. But with today's news that Eric O'Flaherty needs the same operation, the team will need to mix and match with some unproven options late in games, writes David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. I imagine that the Braves could find themselves shopping for relief help as the trade deadline nears.
  • The Marlins selected the contract of outfielder Jordan Brown from Triple-A New Orleans after placing Matt Diaz on the DL, tweets Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post. The Marlins already had an open 40-man roster spot, so there was no corresponding move necessary.
  • In a similar situation, the Phillies announced that they've selected Humberto Quintero's contract from Triple-A Lehigh Valley and placed Mike Adams on the disabled list. Like the Marlins, the Phillies already had an open spot on their 40-man roster.

Eric O’Flaherty To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Braves left-handed setup man Eric O'Flaherty visited Dr. James Andrews today, and it was determined that he will indeed undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery tomorrow, as the team had feared, tweets David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

The news bears extra significance for O'Flaherty because he's in his final year of team control and will be eligible for free agency following the 2013 season. The 28-year-old, who was a lock for a multiyear free agent contract, will almost certainly have to settle for a one-year deal and could end up signing a minor league contract.

Since being selected off waivers from the Mariners prior to the 2009 season, O'Flaherty has been a dominant force coming out of the Atlanta 'pen. He's posted a 1.99 ERA, 7.2 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 to go along with a 54.6 percent ground-ball rate. While he's unquestionably better against left-handed hitters, as one might expect, O'Flaherty has also held right-handed opponents to a sub-.700 OPS four times in the past five seasons.

Lefties Sean Burnett, Javier Lopez and Pedro Feliciano have all signed two-year deals worth $8-9MM in the past few years. O'Flaherty, however, could likely have pushed for a three-year deal in the mold of the contracts signed by Scott Downs ($15MM) or Jeremy Affeldt ($18MM) had he posted another strong season, especially considering his youth relative to the age at which those contracts were signed.

With O'Flaherty's stock plummeting, Downs could once again be the class of the lefty relief market. J.P. Howell and Boone Logan also represent lefties who, like O'Flaherty, will be younger than most of their peers when they hit the free agent market.

Draft Notes: Appel, Gray, Shipley, Manaea, Stanek

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The Astros, Cubs, and Rockies have the first three picks in the 2013 amateur draft, which takes place Thursday, June 6th.  Draft gurus expect college righties Mark Appel and Jonathan Gray and college third baseman Kris Bryant to go within those first three picks, though the order seems tough to pin down at this point.  The latest on the draft:

  • Conor Glassey of Baseball America takes a look at the age spectrum among this year's BA Top 250 by splitting the list into high school and college players and examining the youngest and oldest in each group.
  • Baseball America's Jim Callis asked four "top-level scouting executives" whether they preferred Appel or Gray.  Three of them chose Appel, though it was interesting to hear that two of them questioned his makeup.
  • MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo talked to Nevada righty Braden Shipley, a converted shortstop.  ESPN's Keith Law ranks Shipley the No. 6 talent in the draft, and predicted the Marlins will indeed take him in that sixth spot.  Baseball America ranks him eighth, and predicted he'd go fifth to the Indians.  Mayo went with eighth to the Royals.
  • Mayo also writes that Shipley has elevated his stock thanks to consistent performance this season, while Indiana State lefty Sean Manaea and Arkansas right-hander Ryne Stanek have seen their stocks fall. Manaea has been bothered by a hip issue that has led to diminished results, while Stanek has had an up-and-down season as well. A scouting director told Mayo that he thinks Stanek will be the third pitcher selected in the draft. The upcoming conference tournaments will serve as a showcase for these college arms to gain some last-minute draft helium.

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

Transaction Retrospection: The Jackson-Hudson Trade

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It's not often that you see a well-regarded starting pitcher (or any well-regarded player, for that matter) appear on eight different teams prior to his 30th birthday, but that's the situation in which Edwin Jackson currently finds himself. Of course, Jackson inked a four-year deal with the Cubs that should give him some stability, but that's not his first stop in Chicago.

Jackson spent parts of two seasons across town as a member of the White Sox rotation from 2010-11. General manager Kenny Williams swung a midseason deal in 2010 that brought a struggling Jackson from the Diamondbacks to the White Sox in exchange for right-hander Daniel Hudson (23 years old at the time) and minor league lefty David Holmberg (18). It's been nearly three years since that trade occurred, so let's take a look at the players involved…

The Major League Side:Edwin

  • Edwin Jackson: While he had thrown a no-hitter for the D-backs that season, Jackson was struggling at the time of the trade. He'd posted a 5.16 ERA in in 21 starts but was coming off a solid 2009 campaign and had one and a half years of team control remaining. Jackson turned things around with the South Siders in a big way. His K/9 rate soared from 7.0 to 9.2 while his BB/9 dropped from 4.0 to 2.2. Jackson contributed 1.9 WAR (per Fangraphs) to an 88-win season for the White Sox, but they came up short and finished second in the AL Central. He was terrific in the first half of 2011 as well, posting an even 3.0 WAR before being traded to the Blue Jays (who immediately flipped him to St. Louis) in a deal that netted Jason Frasor and Zach Stewart while also freeing the Sox of the remaining $7.2MM on Mark Teahen's contract.
  • Daniel Hudson: Hudson ranked as Chicago's No. 3 prospect, per Baseball America, prior to the 2010 season. He'd struggled in three big league starts that year, but he was a revelation for the Diamondbacks down the stretch. In 11 starts following the trade, Hudson posted a 1.69 ERA, 7.9 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9, cementing his place in Arizona's rotation. He followed up that 2.2 WAR effort with an incredible 4.9-win sophomore campaign for the D-backs, but he was a Tommy John victim after just nine ugly starts in 2012. All told, Hudson has a 3.58 ERA, 7.2 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 347 innings as a Diamondback. He's not yet eligible for arbitration and can be controlled through 2016.

The Minor League Side:

  • David Holmberg: At the time of the trade, Holmberg was BA's eighth-ranked White Sox prospect, but he'd struggled to a 4.46 ERA in eight starts in the rookie-level Pioneer League that season. Holmberg has ascended quickly, however, and now ranks as the D-backs' No. 6 prospect according to BA and the No. 8 prospect according to MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo. BA notes that Holmberg is likely to reach his ceiling of a No. 3 or 4 starter in the Major Leagues thanks to his plus command and a very strong changeup. His fastball sits 88-91 mph and can touch 93 at times. Mayo notes that while Tyler Skaggs is the lefty who gets all of the buzz in the Diamondbacks' system, Holmberg "isn't that far behind him." Holmberg reached Double-A as a 20-year-old in 2012 and made 15 solid starts. Now 21 years of age, he's opened the 2013 season at the same level and sports a 3.10 ERA 6.3 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 151 career Double-A innings.

Three years later, it looks like the Diamondbacks got a very good return for a talented but struggling starter. It's conceivable that within the next two seasons, 40 percent of Arizona's rotation will consist of the two players they received in this deal. Jerry Dipoto, the D-backs' GM at the time of the trade (he's now GM of the Angels), did well to secure a pair of prospects who ranked in Chicago's Top 10.

The price Chicago paid doesn't seem crazy either, given Jackson's terrific results with the White Sox. Jackson gave them 4.9 wins above replacement, but most fans will look back on this trade in a negative light due to the lack of return for Jackson when they traded him a year later. That's a fair criticism (and also a trade for another post), but Jackson was every bit the pitcher the White Sox were hoping he'd be when they acquired him. This would probably go down as a win-win had the Sox contended in 2011 or made the playoffs in 2010.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Scott Proctor Retires

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Right-hander Scott Proctor has decided to retire, according to Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News (on Twitter). The 36-year-old had signed a minor league contract with the Giants this offseason but was traded to the Orioles in March and released at the end of April.

Proctor, a fifth-round pick of the Dodgers in 1998, appeared in 307 games between the Dodgers, Yankees and Braves. In 343 career innings, he pitched to a 4.78 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 4.4 BB/9 and a 31.9 percent ground-ball rate. Proctor's best year came in 2006 with the Yankees when he totaled 102 1/3 innings with a 3.52 ERA. The Florida State University product banked nearly $3MM over the course of his career, according to Baseball-Reference.com.

Minor Moves: Paulino, Resop, Teahen

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Today's minor moves…

  • Baseball America's Matt Eddy reports that the Orioles have signed Ronny Paulino to a minor league deal. Eddy's piece contains a wealth of information, as it includes a complete rundown of minor league transactions that have taken place from May 9-16 among all 30 teams.
  • Athletics reliever Chris Resop cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A, tweets Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.  The A's had designated Resop for assignment on Friday to open a 40-man roster spot for Hideki Okajima.  Resop, 30, had a 6.00 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 5.0 BB/9, 1.50 HR/9, and 41.9% groundball rate in 18 innings this year.  Having been outrighted once before, Resop had the ability to reject this assignment, but it made sense to accept and keep his $1.35MM salary.  That salary also may explain why he went unclaimed.  The A's acquired Resop from the Pirates in November last year for 25-year-old minor league reliever Zach Thornton.
  • Mark Teahen has asked for and been granted his release from the Diamondbacks and is a free agent, MLBTR has learned.  The versatile veteran played in the Majors from 2005-11, compiling a .264/.327/.409 line for the Royals, White Sox, and Blue Jays.  Teahen began the year with Arizona's Triple-A club before being traded to the Reds earlier this month.  The deal fell through due to the Reds' concerns about his physical, though the D'Backs and the player consider him healthy.  Teahen had been playing in extended spring training due to a lack of roster spots in Reno.
  • Five players currently reside in DFA limbo: Derek Lowe of the Rangers, Daric Barton of the A's, Jon Rauch of the Marlins, Alberto Gonzalez of the Yankees, and Scott Cousins of the Angels.  The Cubs' Michael Bowden will join that group when Matt Garza is activated.  Should he clear waivers, Rauch would reject an outright assignment, at which point he'd be released and another team could sign him at the league minimum with the Marlins paying the rest of his $1MM salary.

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