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Archives for September 2013

Red Sox Notes: Uehara, Cherington, Salty, Ellsbury

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Koji Uehara's run of 37 straight batters retired came to an end last night, falling eight men shy of Mark Buehrle's absurd Major League record of 45 consecutive batters retired. Sam Miller of Baseball Prospectus breaks down Uehara's streak (with some help from Dan Brooks of Brooksbaseball.net), looking at several at-bats along the way and calculating that, based on the projected rest-of-season OBPs of the hitters that Uehara faced, the average pitcher has a 0.000056 percent chance of retiring those 37 batters consecutively. Here's more on the Red Sox…

  • General manager Ben Cherington may have gone 6-for-7 in terms of free agent signings this offseason, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Heyman lists Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Koji Uehara, David Ross, Jonny Gomes and Stephen Drew as wins, and that's not including the cheap pick-up of Mike Carp. Other teams are taking note of the blueprint, with one Mets official telling Heyman there's "a lot of merit" to Cherington's approach. Heyman points out that even with the $8MM worth of incentives to Napoli, the total free agent commitment of $108.2MM is about $17MM less than Josh Hamilton's contract on its own.
  • Ian Browne of MLB.com believes the Red Sox are probably more comfortable trying to retain Jarrod Saltalamacchia than trying to bring in a free agent or trade target to rebuild the excellent rapport that Saltalamacchia has established with the team's pitching staff.
  • Within that same Inbox piece, Browne speculates that the team likely isn't comfortable going to six or seven years for Jacoby Ellsbury as a free agent, having learned the hard way from the Carl Crawford contract.
  • Browne also writes that it's all but certain that the Red Sox will non-tender Andrew Bailey this offseason. Bailey earned $4.1MM this season and would've been in line for a slight raise via arbitration because he pitched well prior to being lost for the season due to injury once again. The team could still look to bring Bailey back at a reduced rate, but Uehara will be Boston's closer in 2014, Browne writes definitively.

Astros Will Target Bullpen Help In Offseason

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Much has been made of the Astros shredding their 2013 payroll by trading players such as Bud Norris, Jose Veras and Jed Lowrie. As it stands, Erik Bedard is the only member of the team earning more than $1MM. However, as Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle reports, the team will be willing to spend on some outside resources this offseason.

Ortiz notes that the Astros have lost 15 games when leading after seven innings this season, which is likely one of the reasons why GM Jeff Luhnow told him that Astros will be looking to add some relief arms from outside the organization this offseason:

"We're going to make some investments in bringing in some players from outside the organization," Luhnow said, "with the goal in mind to help us be more competitive, to shore up the bullpen, maybe add another bat to the lineup and put these guys in a position where if they go out and give us enough innings, we've got the ability to score enough runs for them and finish the game and put a 'W' up there."

Ortiz adds that the team is pleased with the recent performances of young starters Jarred Cosart, Brett Oberholtzer, Brad Peacock and Paul Clemens. Clemens has made just three starts, but each of the others has an ERA of 3.38 or better since joining the rotation (or re-joining it, in Peacock's case). And of course, pitching prospects like Mark Appel and Mike Foltynewicz are on the horizon.

As far as position players go, Ortiz lists Jason Castro, Jose Altuve, Jonathan Villar, Matt Dominguez and Chris Carter as players beginning to form a relatively youthful core. Top prospects George Springer and Jonathan Singleton are nearly big league ready. It seems logical to assume that Singleton and Carter can handle first base duties, making corner outfield perhaps the best spot to add a new bat via free agency or trade (that's just my speculation of course).

Luhnow tells Ortiz that the team expects 2014 to be a "substantial step forward" in terms of on-field results and adds:  "I think our fans have been very, very patient, and they deserve to see that next year."

NL East Notes: Loria, Roark, Franco

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Earlier in the week it was reported that Marlins president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest confronted owner Jeffrey Loria to get a direct answer about his future with the club. Loria has yet to comment on the situation, but this isn't the first time that there has been speculation about Beinfest's job security in the past. Here's more on the Marlins front office and the rest of the NL East…

  • Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald spoke to several officials regarding the Marlins' front office, with one source telling him that Loria "has marginalized the front office" and is making the calls on all baseball moves on his own. Another source told Spencer that they don't think team president David Samson's job is in danger.
  • Spencer also spoke with former Nationals/Expos GM and current ESPN analyst Jim Bowden, and Bowden offered a different view, noting that it's "old school" to think a team's owner would ever let a GM make most of the decisions on his own: “There are very few situations left in baseball where the GM has full autonomy in making the call. I’ve never had a situation my entire career where I got to make the call, ever.” Bowden said the key is getting the owner and GM on the same page.
  • Nationals right-hander Tanner Roark is making a case for a 2014 rotation spot, writes Dan Kolko of MASNsports.com. Kolko spoke with manager Davey Johnson, first baseman Adam LaRoche and third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, all of whom offered high praise for the 26-year-old. The Nats originally acquired Roark in the trade that sent Cristian Guzman to the Rangers. After a Triple-A season in 2012, Roark posted a 3.15 ERA in the minors this year and has a 1.08 ERA with 6.9 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 and a 45 percent ground-ball rate in 41 2/3 big league innings.
  • Top Phillies prospect Maikel Franco expects to compete for a Major League job in Spring Training next season but is currently blocked by Cody Asche and Ryan Howard, writes Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News. Franco told Lawrence that he doesn't care what position he plays. The 21-year-old hit a combined .320/.356/.569 with 31 homers between High-A and Double-A this season.

Chicago Notes: Cubs, Sveum, Konerko

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Here's a look at the latest out of the Windy City..

  • Theo Epstein told reporters, including Carrie Muskat of MLB.com, that even though manager Dale Sveum has done a “remarkable job” maintaining a good clubhouse over two rough seasons, no decision has been made on his future beyond this season.  Epstein says that the skipper was never being evaluated on wins and losses this season but rather the development of young players and other factors.
  • Epstein went on to explain that while he'll be looking to have a more productive lineup in 2014, he won't lean on the open market to make that happen, Muskat writes.  “I don’t think we’re going to get to where we need to be through free agency for the short term, honestly,” Epstein said. “Given the needs that we have and where we are and the likely price tags on the market, I don’t think we’ll have the ability to add multiple impact pieces in free agency."
  • White Sox veteran Paul Konerko still refuses to address his future beyond this season, Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com.  Konerko has reportedly told friends that he plans on coming back in 2014, however.

Quick Hits: Rangers, Washington, Ibanez

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The Rangers' seven-game slide is obviously cause for concern as the club looks to punch their ticket to the playoffs, but it also has skipper Ron Washington worried about his job security for 2014, writes Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram.  "I'm concerned about my job," Washington said on ESPN Radio. "If that decision is made, it's out of my hands. I hope I've gained credibility for what we've accomplished the past few years. I'm not a finger-pointer. We've all got to take blame for right now four our collapse, if you want to call it that. I'm calling it a slump. I don't really think about that type of stuff. I know at some point in this game of baseball, we all may have to look for another job."  Meanwhile, GM Jon Daniels tells Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter) that Washington's job isn't in jeopardy.  Here's more from around baseball..

  • At the age of 41, it doesn't sound like Mariners veteran Raul Ibanez has any intention of walking away from baseball anytime soon based on his chat with MLB.com's Meggie Zahneis.  "I feel very fortunate and blessed that I really, I get an opportunity to still do this," Ibanez said. "And there is no greater game, nothing else I would rather do than to play baseball."
  • Buster Olney of ESPN.com (Insider sub. req'd) looks at players who could be given the qualifying offer this summer and subsequently see their payday take a tumble thanks to draft pick compensation.
  • Eno Sarris of Fangraphs looks at the ramifications of the possible changes to the Japanese posting system.  Over the weekend, David Lennon of Newsday reported that the system could be altered this fall to allow for Japanese players to choose from the top three bidders instead of being locked into an exclusive negotiating window with one club.

NL West Notes: Balentien, Giants, Tanaka, D’Backs

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Wladimir Balentien smashed his 56th home run for the Yakult Swallows on Sunday to break Sadaharu Oh's Japanese single-season record and some within the Giants organization have wondered if they could find a way to acquire him, writes Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle.  There's one problem, however - Balentien signed a three-year deal with the Swallows before this season, which means he will not be a free agent until the end of 2015.  “He wants to come back.  That’s what he told me two or three weeks ago. His dream is to come back and play in the major leagues," said Giants hitting coach Hensley Meulens. “We’ve talked about him, but nobody knows how to go about it, to get out of the contract."  While the idea has been batted around, Schulman cautions that the  conversations have been theoretical and have not involved GM Brian Sabean.  Here's more out of the NL West..

  • The Dodgers have scouted Japanese right-handed pitcher Masahiro Tanaka, a source tells Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com.  Earlier today we learned that the rival Angels are also looking at the Rakuten Golden Eagles standout.
  • Diamondbacks left-hander Matt Reynolds learned that he'll require Tommy John surgery after his MRI was reviewed, according to Jack Magruder of FOX Sports Arizona (via Twitter).  The 28-year-old, who posted a 1.98 ERA with 7.6 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 in 30 relief outings this season, will probably go under the knife with Dr. James Andrews next week.
  • Keith Law of ESPN.com (Insider sub. req'd) runs down the players that have exceeded his expectations this season, highlighted by the MVP-caliber play of Diamondbacks standout Paul Goldschmidt.

Free Agent Profile: Roberto Hernandez

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In his first full season in 2007, Indians starter Fausto Carmona finished fourth in the AL Cy Young voting.  After some ups and downs, he seemed settled in as a mid-rotation arm with some upside, until he was arrested in January 2012 in the Dominican Republic for using a false identity.  Carmona, now known as Roberto Hernandez, was found to be three years older than originally believed.  After a brief return to the Indians, the Rays swooped in and signed him for a meager $3.25MM guarantee on a one-year deal this past offseason.

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Strengths/Pros

Among qualified pitchers, Hernandez ranks sixth in baseball with a 53.1% groundball rate.  And that's down from Hernandez's groundballing peak, as he was above 63% in 2007-08.  A high groundball rate is almost never a bad thing, but we'll elaborate later in the post.

Hernandez has exhibited strong control this year with a 2.1 BB/9, a career best.  He's also authoring a career-best strikeout rate at 6.8 per nine.  The resulting 3.23 K/BB ratio ranks seventh among free agent starters.

The ERA estimator SIERA suggests the skills Hernandez has displayed this year are good for a 3.58 mark.  Among free agents, only A.J. Burnett and Dan Haren have done better in this regard, and Hernandez bests pitchers such as Matt Garza, Ervin Santana, Tim Lincecum, Hiroki Kuroda, Ricky Nolasco, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Bronson Arroyo, who will all receive larger commitments.

It is impossible to picture the Rays extending a qualifying offer to Hernandez, so he won't come with draft pick compensation issues like Santana, Kuroda, and perhaps Lincecum.

Weaknesses/Cons

If you're a believer in the predictive value of ERA, you won't be inspired by Hernandez's 4.89 figure this season.  It's hard to defend a pretty K/BB ratio as a pitcher gets battered — for example, Hernandez allowed four runs on ten hits in 5 1/3 innings against the Tigers on June 6th, and he doesn't get extra credit for striking out six and walking one that day.  Hernandez has allowed nearly ten hits per nine innings this year, which stands out even if we quietly note his slightly elevated .309 batting average on balls in play.

We also have to talk about home runs allowed.  In theory, keeping the ball in the yard should be among Hernandez's biggest strengths, since he gets so many groundballs.  In reality, he's allowed 1.28 home runs per nine innings in 352 frames since 2011.  This year, he's at 1.45 — third worst in the game among qualified starters.  A whopping 21% of Hernandez's flyballs have cleared the fence, twice the MLB average this year.  Nearly a quarter of the flyballs hit against Hernandez by left-handed batters have gone for home runs this year.  While it's fairly safe to assume Hernandez won't reach those heights again in 2014, it's also fair to say he's worse than the average pitcher at keeping flyballs in the yard, and the ERA estimators are giving him too much credit.

Hernandez was a member of one of the game's deepest rotations, and was demoted to the bullpen in September with the Rays having better options.  Even if he might still be in the rotation for many other clubs, it's not a good development for a pitcher heading back into free agency.

Personal

Hernandez has three brothers and three sisters, according to the Rays' media guide, and spent part of the offseason working with the cattle at his family's farm in the Dominican Republic.  He's in touch with nature, doing much of his offseason running in the mountains near the farm.  Hernandez is married, with three children.

Market

It's too early to pin down potential suitors for Hernandez, as there are a large number of teams that could plug him into the back end of their rotation on the cheap.  He reportedly drew interest from at least five teams last offseason.  Hernandez seems like a free agent who could sign in January, after the bigger names are off the board.  For certain clubs with weak rotations, he could be a big fish in a small pond.  From what we've heard, Hernandez has his mind set on returning to a starting role in 2014.  

Expected Contract

Despite his struggles, Hernandez is in better shape than he was a year ago, when he barely pitched due to his identity fraud situation.  Agent Charisse Espinosa-Dash will likely set out seeking two guaranteed years, and I view the two-year, $10MM deals signed by Carlos Villanueva, Kevin Correia, and Chris Capuano as Hernandez's ceiling.  Back in May, when it seemed likely his home run per flyball rate would come down, I pictured a Brandon McCarthy/Joe Blanton-type contract in the two-year, $16MM range.  Ultimately, since Hernandez will pitch at 33 next year and didn't finish strong, I predict a one-year, $5MM contract, plus incentives.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

D-Backs Could Look To Extend Parra, Ziegler

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The Diamondbacks are expected to pursue long-term deals for both Gerardo Parra and Brad Ziegler this offseason, writes Jack Magruder of FOX Sports Arizona.

Interest in an extension for Parra was actually first noted by Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic last week. General manager Kevin Towers offered high praise for Parra's glove to both reporters, noting that Parra is the type of player who can win games with his glove and throwing arm alone. Towers said to Piecoro that he feels Parra profiles better as a center fielder from an offensive standpoint, though he's a better defender on the outfield corners.

Towers voiced his pleasure with Ziegler to Magruder, praising his right-hander for pitching well in any situation:

"He's pitched well. He's pitched well since he's been here, in lot of different roles," Towers said. "When he comes in a ballgame, I feel pretty confident, whether it is the seventh, eighth or ninth."

Parra is earning $2.35MM this season and is under team control through 2015 as an arbitration eligible player. Ziegler, who was acquired from the A's for Brandon Allen and Jordan Norberto in July 2011, is earning $3.15MM this season and is eligible for free agency following the 2014 campaign.

Towers' comments on Parra's glove appear to be spot on, as UZR/150 pegs him at a sky-high +29.4 runs, and The Fielding Bible estimates that he's saved 38 runs on defense alone in 2013. At the plate, he's delivered a .266/.322/.401 slash line that checks in just below league average (98 OPS+).

As for Ziegler, he's turned in a 2.26 ERA in 67 2/3 innings. And, while his 5.1 K/9 is low, he mitigates that with a 2.8 BB/9 rate and a whopping 70.3 percent ground-ball rate that checks in as the highest among pitchers who have thrown at least 20 innings this season.

Parra told Magruder that he "loves" playing in Arizona but doesn't want to listen to contract offers until after the season and is focused on finishing strong. Ziegler simply said he wants to pitch for a winning team, regardless of what inning he's entering the game: "I want to be on a winning team, and whatever I can do to help the team win, you are never going to find me complaining about my role on the team."

NL East Notes: Harvey, Collins, Johnson, Valencia

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The plan of action could change later this offseason, but for now, Matt Harvey has decided to try and avoid undergoing Tommy John surgery, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. The young Mets ace will try to rehab his right elbow for a month or two and then throw to see if he bounces back well from the partially torn ulnar collateral ligament. Here's more on the Mets and the rest of the NL East…

  • Matthew Cerrone of MetsBlog isn't on board with the Mets bringing Terry Collins back for next season and beyond.  The Mets have stopped short of officially saying that Collins will manage the team in 2014, but all indications are that he will be back in the dugout.
  • Look for Elliot Johnson to be back with the Braves in a super-utility role next season, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com within his latest column.  Atlanta is quite pleased with their August waiver claim on the 29-year-old as he has done a capable job of filling in for second baseman Dan Uggla.
  • More from Rosenthal's piece, as he writes that Danny Valencia’s strong play with the Orioles could make him an appealing option for the Marlins, who will be looking for help at third base this winter.  It doesn't hurt that Valencia has strong ties to the area as he was born in Miami, grew up in nearby Boca Raton, and attended the University of Miami.
  • The Phillies are a prime example of how fortunes can change quickly in the game of baseball, writes MLB.com's Paul Hagen.  The Phillies opted to keep their aging core in tact this season despite being bogged down by injuries.

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

Abreu To Showcase For Scouts In Late September

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Cuban defector Jose Dariel Abreu will host a showcase in the Dominican Republic at the end of September to audition for Major League scouts, reports ESPN's Jerry Crasnick. The 26-year-old first baseman has quickly become one of the most talked-about names on the international market after defecting from the Cuban national team just over a month ago.

Crasnick spoke with four talent evaluators with extensive international experience for his piece (which is full of interesting quotes), and the responses he got from those four reflect the varying opinions the scouting community currently holds on Abreu. All four agreed that Abreu has power that is at least comparable to that of Yasiel Puig (if not greater), but one NL scout expressed concerns over his ability to catch up to fastballs, stating that Abreu has "slider bat speed." That scout opined that Abreu would feast on No. 3, No. 4 and No. 5 starters but struggle against top-of-the-rotation arms. Meanwhile, another scout said that Abreu could step into a big league lineup immediately and hit .260 with 25 homers.

Abreu drew comparisons to Kendrys Morales, Dayan Viciedo, Pedro Alvarez and former Angels first-round pick C.J. Cron when Crasnick asked for comparables. The scouts noted that Morales is a better hitter than Abreu, but Abreu possesses more power than Morales. Abreu is also said to be more grounded than Puig, whose flamboyant personality has garnered plenty of negative media attention.

One person who spoke with Crasnick said Abreu has already trimmed down significantly in preparation for his showcase, easing some concerns about his weight and body type. Crasnick points out that similar concerns surrounded Puig at the time of his signing last season, but he worked himself into phenomenal shape and is far from bad-bodied or unfit at this point.

Crasnick lists the Red Sox, Rangers, Giants, Mets, White Sox, Pirates and Marlins as speculative landing spots for Abreu, noting that Pittsburgh's interest likely will depend on how high the price tag soars. One scout said he thought four years and $32MM was a fair price but added that he wouldn't be surprised to see Abreu top $10MM per season. Each party that Crasnick spoke to expressed skepticism that Abreu would really be worth the rumored $60MM price tag:

"I like him fine, but I wouldn't sell the ranch to get him," the scout said. "The problem is, Cespedes and Puig can go 0-for-4 and they can still win you a game because they can run and throw. Abreu isn't that guy. He's more an Edgar Martinez-type. He has to hit or you've got nothing. He's all bat."

Whatever the price tag, it's likely that Abreu joins Japanese right-hander Masahiro Tanaka and fellow Cuban infielder Alexander Guerrero as the top international free agents on this year's market. Abreu will contend with the likes of Morales, Mike Napoli and Justin Morneau on this year's free agent market and could easily get the largest contract of any free agent first baseman.

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