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Qualifying Offer Decisions

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13 free agents received qualifying offers a week ago, and I think they are all likely to decline by today's 4pm central time deadline.  If these players sign Major League deals elsewhere, their old teams stand to gain a draft pick in each instance.  The latest:

Royals Sign Clayton Mortensen

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The Royals have re-signed right-hander Clayton Mortensen to a minor league deal, according to the MLB.com transactions page.  Kansas City acquired Mortensen from the Red Sox in late August in exchange for outfielder Quintin Berry.

The 28-year-old pitched to a 5.34 ERA with 6.2 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9 last season with the Red Sox.  For his big league career, Mortensen owns a 4.68 ERA with 6.0 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9 over five seasons spent with the Cardinals, A's, Rockies, and BoSox.

Mortensen is represented by the Beverly Hills Sports Council, according to the MLBTR Agency Database.

Free Agent Profile: Juan Uribe

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Prior to the season, there was speculation the Dodgers could release Juan Uribe, eating the $7MM remaining on his contract just to open up the roster spot after he played at replacement level from 2011-12.  However, Uribe made over 100 starts for the Dodgers in 2013 and was incredibly valuable, posting the fourth-best WAR among all free agents.

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Strengths/Pros

Uribe was worth 5.1 wins above replacement according to FanGraphs, a number topped in 2013 by only three other free agents: Robinson Cano, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Shin-Soo Choo.  No other position player even came close to Uribe, with Marlon Byrd checking in at 4.1.

How did he do it?  In large part through defense.  Playing mostly third base, Uribe posted a UZR/150 of 35.3 in 900 1/3 innings.  Only four other players exceeded 30 this year, and their defensive excellence is uncontested: Shane Victorino, Juan Lagares, Gerardo Parra, and Manny Machado.  Uribe's hot corner defense is no fluke, as he's posted strong UZR numbers there in each season since '09.  Another stat, defensive runs saved from The Fielding Bible, had Uribe at 15.  That figure was tied for the 15th best in baseball.  The National League Gold Glove at third base went to Nolan Arenado, and rightfully so, but Uribe was one of three finalists along with David Wright.  The Fielding Bible's panel of ten experts ranked Uribe's defense sixth in baseball at third base this year, behind only Arenado in the NL.

Uribe has the versatility to play all around the infield, though it's been a while since he's played anything other than third base regularly.

One reason Uribe was able to pick up 102 starts (and 132 total games) for the Dodgers this year is that he had a solid year with the bat as well.  Uribe hit .278/.331/.438 in 426 plate appearances.  He's always had pop, with a career isolated power mark of .167 and eight seasons of double digit home runs.  He hit a career-best 24 bombs in 2010 with the Giants, leading to his contract with the Dodgers.  This year, Uribe was able to hit for average while also drawing enough walks to create a solid OBP.  Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), which is park and league-adjusted, measures a player's total offensive value against the league average.  Uribe's 116 figure this year means he was 16% better than the league average hitter, and it ranked eighth among third basemen with at least 400 PAs.  By this measure, Uribe had a better year with the bat than Pablo Sandoval, Chase Headley, Kyle Seager, Pedro Alvarez, Martin Prado, and other starting third basemen.

Uribe made significant contributions to the 2005 White Sox and 2010 Giants, so his pair of World Series rings are well-deserved.  He did not receive a qualifying offer from the Dodgers this offseason, so signing him will not involve forfeiting a draft pick.

Weaknesses/Cons

Uribe was a terrible hitter from 2011-12, hitting .199/.262/.289 with six home runs in 474 plate appearances.  His contract looked like a big mistake after the first two years, and he took criticism for being out of shape.  Uribe endured a left hip flexor injury in May 2011, and hit the DL again in July with a similar injury.  In September 2011 he had surgery for a sports hernia, giving hope for a rebound in '12 when he showed up to camp in better shape and healthy again.  However, he hit the DL in May for a wrist injury and was marginalized as the season wore on.  Hanley Ramirez's thumb injury in March 2013 created an opportunity for Uribe to play regularly at third base.  Even after a stellar 2013, no one has any idea how many useful seasons the 34-year-old Uribe has left.

Uribe posted a ridiculous 25.6% walk rate in April this year, settling in at a more Uribe-like 5.0% for the rest of the season.  He also had a .322 batting average on balls in play this year, compared to a career BABIP of .282.  It's reasonable to expect Uribe to draw fewer walks and have fewer hits drop in next year, pulling his OBP down toward his career .299 mark.  Projections suggest Uribe may not even be a league average hitter in 2014.  If he reverts to being a .200 hitter with no power, Uribe may be nothing more than a defensive replacement.

Personal

Juan and his wife Ana reside in the Dominican Republic in the offseason with their four children.  Juan was a second cousin of Jose Uribe, a shortstop who played in the Majors from 1984-1993 and died in a car crash in 2006.  Juan was signed by Rockies scout Jorge Posada, Sr., father of the Yankees catcher, in 1997.  MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez described the signing in this 2010 article.

Uribe is a big hit in the clubhouse.  In 2010, Ann Killion of Sports Illustrated wrote, "Uribe is beloved, always happy, consistently upbeat."  Uribe's teammates have been singing his praises for many years.

Market

The Dodgers may be open to bringing Uribe back on a one-year deal, after the first two years of their initial commitment went so poorly.  Otherwise, a team with unsettled plans in the short-term at third base would make sense for Uribe, which could mean the White Sox, Yankees, Cubs, Angels, Marlins, and Phillies.  I'm not sure if any teams would consider Uribe as a semi-regular second baseman, but in that case the Orioles, Blue Jays, Tigers, Royals, Braves, and Rockies could be factors.  Uribe may be best served filling an Eric Chavez type of role, in whom the Yankees, Angels, and Diamondbacks are interested according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.  

Uribe benefits from a weak free agent market for third basemen.  He's as much of a starting third baseman as anyone else in the group.

Expected Contract

The question with Uribe: one year or two?  On one hand, the bar for a two-year deal is quite low.  Utility infielders and other part-time players routinely get two years, and Uribe's performance in 2013 suggests he can contribute regularly.  On the other hand, Uribe's contract with the Dodgers three years ago was the first multiyear pact of his career, and the first two years went horribly.  In the end, I think Uribe will get a two-year, $12MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Crasnick On Cano, Tanaka, Price, Ellsbury

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ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick checked in with 21 general managers, assistant GMs, player personnel people, and scouts to get their take on some of the biggest storylines of the winter.  Here's a look at some of the highlights..

  • Almost everyone sees Robinson Cano staying put with 19 votes for the Yankees, one vote for the Dodgers, and one for the Cubs.  Nearly everyone sees Cano getting a seven- or eight-year deal worth $160MM-$230MM and no one expects him to approach the $300MM figure he was asking for from the Bombers earlier this year.  It should be noted that the GM that picked the Cubs said that he has no inside info to support that pick.
  • Nine execs see Masahiro Tanaka landing with the Dodgers while six chose the Yankees.  All but a handful of those surveyed think his payout will exceed the $60MM Yu Darvish got from the Rangers.  Tanaka is ranked as the top available pitcher by MLBTR's Tim Dierkes.
  • Seventeen of the 21 participants in the survey say David Price will get traded this winter.  Where will he land?  The Rangers got nine votes and the Dodgers got four nods with one vote each for the Nationals, Cardinals, Angels, and Astros.
  • Opinions were somewhat split on whether Jacoby Ellsbury or Shin-Soo fChoo will provide better value over the course of their next deals.  Twelve execs said Ellsbury, eight voted for Choo, and one GM declined to vote, saying that neither one will match what they get.
  • When asked to pick the best pitcher between Matt Garza, Ervin Santana, and Ubaldo Jimenez, ten execs chose Garza.  Most seemed to agree that the lack of quality starting pitching available will lead to all three being overpaid.  One American League scout seemed to like Jimenez on some level but was skeptical of him long-term.  "Ubaldo has the best chance to give you impact in the short term, but I am not buying him over the course of 3-4 years," the scout said.
  • When asked which former Yankees prospect has a better chance of succeeding elsewhere with a change of scenery, Phil Hughes was the overwhelming choice over Joba Chamberlain.
  • Crasnick asked the execs which aging pitcher had the most left in the tank between Roy Halladay, Hiroki Kuroda, and Tim Hudson.  Kuroda had the backing of 12 people surveyed, Hudson got eight votes, and Halladay had just one exec in his corner.  "Maybe the chances of [Halladay] coming back aren't real good if you look at it objectively," a scout said. "But if the guy wants to [keep pitching] and be successful, I wouldn't put it past him."

Orioles Intrigued By Tim Hudson

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The Orioles are intrigued by free agent starter Tim Hudson and have discussed him internally, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com.  The 38-year-old righty fits the Orioles' profile, and the O's have Braves connections in recent hires Dave Wallace and Dom Chiti.

The Orioles will keep close tabs on Hudson, reports Kubatko, as he recovers from this summer's season-ending ankle surgery.  Hudson, profiled by MLBTR's Steve Adams here, has already drawn interest from the Rockies, Giants, Red Sox, Athletics, Rangers, Indians, and Royals among others, plus the Braves would like to re-sign him.  Yahoo's Jeff Passan has suggested a two-year, $24MM deal for Hudson, who will benefit from the smaller requirement to sign him compared to the market's younger starters, plus the lack of a qualifying offer.

The Orioles are not likely to pursue Scott Kazmir, notes Kubatko.  The O's have four starters penciled in for 2014: Chris Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez, Wei-Yin Chen, and Bud Norris.  Scott Feldman and Jason Hammel are now free agents after contributing to the Orioles' rotation in 2013.

Angels Sign Wade LeBlanc

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The Angels signed lefty Wade LeBlanc to a minor league deal with a spring training invite, according to the team's director of communications Eric Kay.  LeBlanc, 29, posted a 5.40 ERA, 5.4 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.15 HR/9, and 39.1% groundball rate for the Marlins and Astros this year in 55 innings.

LeBlanc joined the Marlins a year ago from the Padres in a swap for catcher John Baker.  The Fish designated him for assignment in June, after which the Astros claimed him off waivers.  The Astros designated him a few weeks later, ultimately outrighting him to Triple-A.  He found his way back up, but was again designated and outrighted in August.

LeBlanc was drafted by the Padres in the second round in 2006 out of the University of Alabama.  The soft-tosser once projected as a future number three starter, but will now serve as Triple-A depth for the Halos.  He'll join Chris Volstad, signed by the Angels to a minor league deal last week.

NL West Rumors: Giants, Garza, Tulowitzki, D’Backs

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The Giants are fans of free agent catcher Brian McCann, but they won't move former MVP Buster Posey to a new position to make room for him, writes Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.  However, they could shift center fielder Angel Pagan to one of the corners and look into outside options like Jacoby Ellsbury.  Meantime, their emphasis is on the rotation and they have already shown interest in Matt Garza, Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez, and many other free agent starters.  Here's more out of the NL West..

  • Right now, there's no evidence that the Rockies will consider trading stars Carlos Gonzalez or Troy Tulowitzki, one GM tells Heyman.  That GM said he has been told Gonzalez is "definitely" not available and was left with the impression that Tulowitzki isn't being traded either.  Rockies Executive Vice President/Chief Financial Officer & General Counsel Bill Geivett said of Tulowitzki today, "He's not going anywhere," tweets Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.  Geivett suggested the same of CarGo.  Morosi adds that Geivett indicated he'd need to be overwhelmed to trade center fielder Dexter Fowler, but he did not explicitly rule that out.
  • Along the same lines, Geivett shot down rumblings connecting Tulowitzki to the Cardinals, writes Troy Renck of the Denver Post.  Geivett believes that with the right additions, the Rockies can put themselves in position to contend.  "We like our core group of guys. We feel like we have a good crew to build around. I know some people disagree, but we don't feel that we are that far away," Geivett said. "We have to be healthy. We can't have our two main guys missing too much."
  • Starting pitching and a power outfield bat are among the items on the Diamondbacks' wish list, writes Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.  General Manager Kevin Towers believes that he is poised to be active in trade talks with depth in the middle infield and center field.

Twins Sign Jason Bartlett

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The Twins have signed Jason Bartlett to a non-roster deal, according to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com (via Twitter). Bartlett is represented by LSW Baseball, according to the MLBTR Agency Database.

The 34-year-old saw 29 games of big league action for the Padres in 2012, hitting .133/.240/.193 in 98 plate appearances. For his career, Bartlett owns a .271/.336/.366 across nine major league seasons. With the deal, Bartlett returns to the club that he spent the first four seasons of his career with.

The Twins also announced that Joe Mauer will transition to being a full-time first baseman in 2014. The move was made "after consultation with doctors from Mayo Clinic and team doctors," according to the press release. Moving Mauer, who is owed $115MM over the next five years, to first base opens up a starting spot for 24-year-old Josmil Pinto behind the plate.

AL East Notes: Wieters, Yankees, Red Sox, Granderson

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Even though Matt Wieters and agent Scott Boras aren’t eager to agree to a contract extension, the Orioles shouldn't consider dealing their star catcher, writes Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com.  Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports suggested over the weekend that the O's could seek to move Wieters and target a replacement such as Jarrod Saltalamacchia, but Dubroff says that it's premature to consider such a thing.  Changing catchers on a young pitching staff is probably a bad idea and with Wieters under control through 2015, there shouldn't be any real rush to trade him if he doesn't agree to a new deal.  Here's more out of the AL East..

  • The Yankees have already opened dialogue with agents at the GM Meetings, according to Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger (via Twitter).  Our own Steve Adams will be checking in live from Orlando, Florida to give us the latest from the proceedings.
  • The Red Sox are on the hunt for a semi-reliable late-inning arm, writes Rob Bradford of WEEI.com.  With Andrew Bailey likely sidelined for the first few months of the season, Boston could use another veteran to bridge the gap to closer Koji Uehara.
  • A person in the know tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter links) that he has yet to hear word of any of the players holding a qualifying offer accepting.  There has been some question as to whether Curtis Granderson might accept the Yankees' offer, but he seems likely to find a multi-year deal elsewhere.

Nelson Cruz To Reject Qualifying Offer

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Representatives for Rangers outfielder Nelson Cruz have informed the club that he will not accept the qualifying offer, a source tells Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram (via Twitter).  Cruz had until the 4pm CT deadline to make a decision, but it sounds like he won’t be taking things to the wire.  The rejection of the QO was widely expected.

The outfielder batted .266/.327/.506 with 27 homers in just 456 plate appearances in 2013.  Of course, Cruz missed 50 games thanks to his involvement in the Biogenesis PED scandal.  While there are many teams in need of a big bat, Cruz’s market could be limited by his defensive shortcomings and age (33).  Cruz comes in as the 17th best free agent on Tim Dierkes’ top 50 list.

With Cruz off the board, there are now a dozen players with qualifying offers remaining: Carlos Beltran, Robinson Cano, Shin-Soo Choo, Stephen Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Hiroki Kuroda, Brian McCann, Kendrys Morales, Mike Napoli, and Ervin Santana.

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