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NL East Rumors: Drew, Samardzija, Mets, Davis, Nats

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This winter at the GM Meetings, the Mets are in the market for an elite shortstop for the first time since 2011 when Jose Reyes was a free agent, writes David Lennon of Newsday.  Lennon believes that Stephen Drew will be out of the club's price range, leaving them to consider Jhonny Peralta or acquiring someone via trade.  If they do spend on someone like the former Tigers shortstop, the Mets could theoretically shift Ruben Tejada over to second base, which would leave Daniel Murphy without a starting spot.  Here's the NL East news out of Orlando, Florida, where our own Steve Adams is on the scene..

  • While the Nationals have been linked to top pitchers David Price and Max Scherzer, Washington is expected to also discuss Cubs’ right-hander Jeff Samardzija, a person familiar with the Nationals’ thinking tells Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post.  The Cubs hurler posted a 4.34 ERA with 9.0 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 and his xFIP of 3.45 suggests he was stronger than his ERA shows.
  • Andy Martino of the New York Daily News (Twitter link) expects the Mets to assess Ike Davis' trade value while they're in Orlando, Florida.  Last week, Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote that Davis is very likely to be dealt, with Lucas Duda getting an opportunity to play first.
  • Martino also says (via Twitter) that there's no indication that there will be major Mets developments right away.

Arbitration Breakdown: Max Scherzer

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Over the next few months, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

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The current record raise for an arbitration eligible starting pitcher with five years of service time is now seven years old. Carlos Zambrano received a shocking $5.9MM raise back in 2007 after finishing 16-7 with a 3.41 ERA in 214 innings with 210 strikeouts. No other pitcher has come close to this amount. In fairness, this raise was somewhat of an anomaly and still looks like a big outlier, but the raises have slowly inched closer to this amount. Cole Hamels received a $5.5MM raise in 2012 after a 14-9 campaign with a 2.79 ERA. This year, however, it looks like this record may be broken once and for all by Max Scherzer.

Scherzer is coming off a $6.725MM salary, and the model sees him getting $13.6MM in 2014. Although this would beat the record by $975K, it seems like a very reasonable estimate for Scherzer this coming season. This was the breakout season that I had suspected Scherzer had in him for a few years. Especially after leading the league in SIERA last year (which has a higher correlation with the following year’s ERA than ERA itself or other comparable statistics), it seemed like Scherzer had just been unlucky.

This year, he made that assessment look accurate. He posted a 2.90 ERA in 214 1/3 innings, while striking out 240 hitters. His SIERA even declined slightly since last year. However, Scherzer also had the good fortune of a large helping of run support this year, which helped him compile a 21-3 record. Wins and innings are by far the most important statistics for a starting pitcher in arbitration, and these clearly will give him a strong case going into arbitration.

There are very few statistics where other starting pitchers in the five years of service time group have topped him. In the last seven years, no one has come into arbitration with five years of service time after getting more than 16 wins, giving Scherzer a nice five win edge over any other comparable the Tigers try to present to the panel.

Scherzer also has among the most innings of eligible pitchers with similar service time in recent memory. Roy Oswalt had 220 2/3 innings back in 2007, but signed a multi-year deal instead of sticking with one-year agreements. Zambrano (214), Hamels (216), and Vargas (217 1/3) all fell in a similar range, and they received raises of $5.9MM, $5.5MM, and $3.65MM. Of course, all had fewer wins and only Hamels had an ERA under 3.00 like Scherzer does. In fact, Hamels is the only pitcher with an ERA under 3.00 among starting pitchers with similar service time to Scherzer in the last seven years with enough innings to qualify for an ERA title.

The floor for Scherzer really does seem to be Zambrano’s $5.9MM raise. Combine a superior set of platform year statistics, along with a probable Cy Young in his trophy case, and Scherzer seems likely to set a new record for starting pitchers. If the Tigers don’t sign him to a multi-year deal, I think that something in the $13.6MM range that the model projects is likely to be where he lands.

An interesting parallel case will be going on for Clayton Kershaw, who is also eligible for arbitration eligibility this offseason and also has five years of service time, and seems to be a better comparable for Scherzer than any of the pitchers mentioned above. Kershaw only went 16-9, which is much worse than Scherzer’s 21-3, but he had 236 innings pitched and a 1.83 ERA, so if he signs before Scherzer, you can bet their Scherzer’s team will be eager to use him as a comparable.  Check out my arbitration breakdown for Kershaw here.

One or both of these players may sign a long-term extension, so neither will necessarily set the record. But either way, both of them will be getting substantial raises in the neighborhood of $7MM more than they earned last season, and both will set the bar higher for arbitration eligible pitchers with five years of service time in future years.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Quick Hits: Jewett, Ohka, Cubs

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Dioner Navarro and Geovany Soto represent the best values available at catcher at the start of the free agent season, ESPN's Keith Law writes (Insider-only). Soto, of course, already re-signed with the Rangers for one year and $3.05MM. Navarro, Law writes, should get paid "backup money," but he might put up a starter-caliber performance. His .300/.365/.492 line in part-time duty with the Cubs in 2013 almost surely isn't sustainable, but his skill set could make him a valuable player anyway. Here are more notes from around baseball.

  • The Nationals will allow the Mariners to interview Trent Jewett to be their third-base coach, FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal tweets. Sherman, meanwhile, tweets that Jewett is "almost certain" to leave. Jewett was the Pirates' third-base coach for part of the time that new Mariners manager Lloyd McClendon managed in Pittsburgh. Jewett joined the Nationals' organization in 2009.
  • Former big-league pitcher Tomo Ohka is trying to make it back to the Majors as a knuckleballer, NikkanSports.com reports. Ohka began to rely on the pitch after having shoulder surgery in 2011. In 2013, he posted a 3.73 ERA in 21 games with the Toyama Thunderbirds in Japan's Baseball Challenge league. Ohka came to the U.S. in October to train in Arizona. "I threw a lot every day. I was able to confirm that I had been training properly on my own," Ohka says. "I want to give it another shot if given the chance, even if I have to start in the minors." Ohka last appeared in the Majors with the Indians in 2009.
  • Now that they've hired Rick Renteria to be their new manager, the Cubs might be done making big moves this offseason, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. "We’re realistic about where we are and the need to get better," says team president Theo Epstein. "But we’re also realistic about where we are and about where the market is likely to go." That means the Cubs won't trade for David Price, or sign Brian McCann. The Cubs are keeping all their options open, but Epstein notes that they're unlikely to spend as wildly as some other teams: "[W]e’re playing against the big boys, too. And there’s a lot of money out there."

Aaron Steen contributed to this post.

Cardinals, Rockies To Discuss Troy Tulowitzki Trade

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The Cardinals and Rockies will discuss a potential Troy Tulowitzki trade at this week's GM/owner meetings, Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports reports. The Cardinals have also asked the Rangers about the possibility of trading for Elvis Andrus or Jurickson Profar, Passan writes.

The Cardinals' troubles at the shortstop position are well-known, as is the depth of their young talent, so potential Tulowitzki or Profar deals have long been the subjects of fan speculation. The Rockies have said they aren't interested in dealing Tulowitzki, but Passan suggests that Rockies ownership may be coming around to the idea of being out from under the $134MM remaining on Tulowitzki's contract, which carries through 2020 (with a club option for 2021).

Passan writes that one potential piece the Rockies might receive in return is first baseman Matt Adams, who so far has been blocked by Allen Craig in St. Louis. Adams hit .284/.335/.503 in part-time duty for the Cardinals this year. The Rockies would also like a pitcher — the Cardinals will not trade Michael Wacha, but Shelby Miller appears to be a possibility. Adams and Miller would highlight a package of three or four players that the Rockies might receive in return for Tulowitzki.

Tulowitzki's contract stipulates that he receive a $2MM bonus if he is traded. Tulowitzki, 29, hit .312/.391/.540 and produced 5.6 wins above replacement in 2013, making him the best shortstop in baseball. His injury history may be a concern, however, given the length of his contract.

Entries Due Tonight For Free Agent Prediction Contest

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Dust off your crystal ball again, it's time for MLBTR's third annual free agent prediction contest! Predict destinations for our top 50 free agents, with the chance to win fantastic prizes and bragging rights over your friends and the MLBTR writing team.  Last year's winner had 20 correct; can you beat that?

How To Play

  • Click here to make picks for our top 50 free agents.  For each player you can choose any of the 30 teams, as well as Retirement or Japan.
  • A Facebook account is required to participate in this contest.  You can log in with the button up top, or by using the Save Your Picks button at the bottom.
  • Feel free to leave your picks incomplete for now, as long as you save them using the button at the bottom.  The contest is open now and runs until 11:59pm central time tonight.  Make sure to have something chosen and saved for all 50 players by the deadline, or else you will not be eligible for the contest.  We suggest you save periodically after every 5-10 picks in case it times out.
  • Players on our top 50 that sign before the November 10th deadline are considered freebies, although you still need to go in and make the correct pick.  It's kind of like getting points for putting your name on the test – seems like a no-brainer, but a few people still won't do it.
  • The leaderboard will rank contestants by "batting average" on correct picks, once players start signing.  The leaderboard will show everyone's full names and Facebook profile picture.

Rules

  • Final picks must be saved by November 10th at 11:59pm central time – no exceptions.
  • MLBTR writers are not eligible for prizes.
  • One entry per person, please.
  • With regard to prizes, ties in batting average will be decided by totaling the ranking number of each correctly-guessed free agent and taking the lowest total, rewarding contestants for being right on better free agents.  If people are still tied after that method is applied, prizes will be distributed at MLBTR's discretion by choosing among tied contestants randomly.
  • Prize winners must respond to an email message within 48 hours.

Prizes

MLBTR Originals

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A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR the past seven days:

East Notes: Beltran, Mets, Lackey

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There have been rumblings that the Red Sox have interest in signing Carlos Beltran, but the New York Post's Joel Sherman points out that there's a problem with that idea. Beltran's knee injuries mean he probably needs to move to the American League so he can play DH at least some of the time. But if he did so in Boston, he'd be getting in the way of David Ortiz. They could play Ortiz at first base a bit more frequently, but they would prefer not to given Ortiz's advanced age (and, presumably, his defensive deficiencies). They could also sign Beltran to play him for about 130 games a season in the outfield, but that raises the question of whether they would prefer to sign Beltran to a big-ticket contract to have him be, essentially, a part-time player. Here are more notes from the East divisions.

  • The Mets will meet with Scott Boras this week to discuss the possibility of signing Shin-Soo Choo and/or Stephen Drew, Newsday's David Lennon tweets. Lennon also notes that if the Mets acquire a new shortstop, one possibility for Ruben Tejada, who was disappointing in 2013, might be a move to second base. It's unclear what such a move might mean for Daniel Murphy, who was one of the Mets' better position players in 2013.
  • If the Braves lose Tim Hudson via free agency, they could do worse than to look into John Lackey of the Red Sox, the Atlanta Journal Constitution's David O'Brien tweets. The Red Sox have Lackey signed for $15.25MM in 2014. They also have an option on his services for 2015 at a league-minimum salary, thanks to a contract clause that gave the Sox an extremely cheap option if Lackey's existing elbow injury caused him to miss significant time. After a strong season in 2013, two years and $15.75MM looks like a bargain, which means Lackey should have significant value if Boston chooses to deal him.

Week In Review: 11/3/13 – 11/9/13

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Here's a look back at this week at MLBTR:

Brewers Notes: Payroll, Free Agency, Hart, First Base

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The GM Meetings begin tomorrow in Orlando and run through Wednesday, but it could be a very quiet three days for the Brewers. "I don't anticipate us being overly active at this point but things could change," GM Doug Melvin told Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. "There's not a lot of openings in the regular lineup." Budget constraints will also play a role in the Brewers' level of activity, according to Haudricourt, as the club is approximately $14MM under its 2013 Opening Day payroll (not including arbitration and pre-arbitration salaries). Here's more from Haudricourt's piece:

  • "There's nothing major on the free-agent market we'll probably get involved with," Melvin said. "Maybe we'll do something with the bullpen, make an addition or two."
  • Melvin sees first base as the one position the Brewers need to fill. Re-signing Corey Hart, who is drawing interest from the Mets and a handful of other teams, is the coventional wisdom, but Melvin has only committed to speaking with agent Jeff Berry about Hart's status at some point.
  • The Brewers are not believed to have interest in Justin Morneau, James Loney, and/or Mike Napoli at this stage.
  • If Hart doesn't re-sign with Milwaukee, one internal option is Juan Francisco, who is showing improvement offensively during Dominican Winter League play (.338/.437/.568 with 18 RBIs – second in the DWL – in 74 at-bats including a .404/.462/.702 slash with 14 RBIs versus left-handers in 47 at-bats, per MLB.com). At the least, Haudricourt sees Francisco providing depth at both infield corners (Francisco has split his time with Licey between third base and DH while appearing in just three games at first).
  • Providing middle infield depth will be Elian Herrera, who the Brewers claimed off waivers from the Dodgers on Monday. "He's somebody who can play all over the field, including shortstop if we need it," said Melvin.

NL West Notes: Padres, Giants, Dodgers, Hudson, Ruiz

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On this date 25 years ago, the Dodgers' Orel Hershiser was an unanimous selection as the National League Cy Young Award winner becoming the only player to be named the Cy Young, NLCS MVP, and World Series MVP in the same season. 1988 was the benchmark in Hershiser's career highlighted by his still-standing MLB record of pitching 59 consecutive scoreless innings. The "Bulldog" also set career-highs in wins (23), strikeouts (190), innings pitched (267.0), complete games (15), and shutouts (8). Here are today's news and notes from the NL West:

  • The Padres appear to be set in terms of rotation depth, Corey Brock of MLB.com writes. They aren't likely to target a starter this offseason unless it's a player that could sit at the top of a rotation or provide long-term value. Such a move would likely be via trade, Brock says, adding that the club's main focus will be on finding left-handed offense.
  • Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle profiles Giants pitching prospect Kyle Crick, who has drawn comparisons to Matt Cain. While the 20-year-old Crick may have the highest ceiling among Giants pitching prospects, he's not likely to help the major league club in 2014, as he finished the year at High-A San Jose. 
  • The Los Angeles Times' Steve Dilbeck comments on a report from Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal that the Dodgers are listening on Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and Carl Crawford. Shopping the veteran outfielders is the right move as the club explores extensions for Hanley Ramirez and Clayton Kershaw, Dilbeck says. However, he adds that the salaries and injury histories of the three make a deal unlikely.
  • The Rockies have reached out to Tim Hudson, but they will have to overpay in either dollars or years to pique his interest, according to Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post. MLBTR's Steve Adams predicts a one-year, $9MM contract for Hudson (#31 on MLBTR's 2014 Top 50 Free Agents list), but Renck believes the right-hander may be able to secure a two-year deal with as many as 15 teams in pursuit.
  • Within the same article, Renck reports the Rockies will make an offer to free agent catcher Carlos Ruiz, but it's unclear whether they are willing to go beyond two years.

Edward Creech contributed to this post.

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