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Royals Remain Strongly Interested In Carlos Beltran

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The Royals have serious interest in free-agent outfielder Carlos Beltran and appear willing to offer their former star a three-year deal, the Kansas City Star's Bob Dutton reports. Last week, CBS Sports' Jon Heyman wrote that the Royals "could become real threats" to sign Beltran. "We’d love to have him in," a Royals official tells Dutton. "One thing about Carlos Beltran is he’s a money player. He’s an RBI guy. He produces."

The Royals will have lots of competition for Beltran, whose other suitors might include the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Rangers, and Mariners. And after the signing of Jason Vargas, the Royals already appear to have little money to spare. Dutton reports, however, that the Royals might be able to find space in their payroll for Beltran, perhaps by making other transactions to reduce salary. If the Royals were to sign Beltran, for example, one possibility might be to trade DH Billy Butler, who is set to make $8MM in 2014 (with an option and a $1MM buyout for 2015).

In any case, the Royals are looking for a hitter, and one reason for their focus on Beltran is that the trade market isn't particularly promising. "[W]hen you look at the landscape, I’m not sure there are many clubs out there that are willing to trade impact bats," says GM Dayton Moore. "There just are not that many, and a lot of people are looking for the same thing."

Readmore here: http://www.kansascity.com/2013/11/30/4660137/carlos-beltran-appears-to-top.html#storylink=cpy
Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2013/11/30/4660137/carlos-beltran-appears-to-top.html#storylink=cpy

Padres Expected To Deal For Lefty Bat And/Or Reliever

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The Padres are expected to acquire a lefty hitter and/or lefty reliever within the next two weeks, Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. "By the time the Winter Meetings end, we will have done something," says GM Josh Byrnes. "We’re lined up on a few trade ideas over the next couple weeks." The Winter Meetings will take place from December 9-12.

The Padres currently have Josh Johnson, Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross and Ian Kennedy penciled into the first four spots of their rotation. Center suggests that, while the Padres aren't likely to trade a prospect like Max Fried or Matt Wisler, they could deal Burch Smith, Robbie Erlin or Eric Stults to acquire a left-handed hitter. Center notes, however, that the Padres are very much aware of the recent spate of injuries to their starting pitchers.

Red Sox Preparing Alternatives To Own Free Agents

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The Red Sox are still waiting for free agents Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Napoli, Stephen Drew and Jarrod Saltalamacchia to decide whether to accept Boston's free agent offers, but they're nearing the point when they might move forward, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. The Red Sox haven't set deadlines for any of their free agents to accept offers, but a source tells Bradford that the Sox are "certainly working on other options, also." The Red Sox told at least one player that they would soon need to make plans to potentially acquire another player to take his place.

Ellsbury, Napoli and Drew all rejected qualifying offers from Boston, and the Red Sox have since made new offers to all three players. Saltalamacchia did not receive a qualifying offer, but the Red Sox did offer him a two-year deal at an annual amount below the $14.1MM qualifying offer figure.

Olney On Starters, Mariners, Anderson, Mets, Rockies

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As we continue to work our way through what has been a slow holiday weekend, here are a few interesting notes from ESPN.com's Buster Olney:

  • Starting pitching demand may not be sufficient to drive up the salaries of Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Matt Garza, argues Olney. Each member of that trio is rumored to be seeking a major, long-term deal. But as Olney observes, several factors — including the wait for Masahiro Tanaka, possible trade availability of some major arms, and imperfect track record of all three hurlers — could conspire to limit their market.
  • One team that "seems bound" to land one of that threesome, according to Olney (via Twitter), is the Mariners. 
  • Ticking through each team in baseball to gauge possible interest in one of these upper-middle-class starters, Olney includes a few interesting notes on some clubs. For instance, Olney twice notes that the Athletics' Brett Anderson is available via trade and could well be dealt if Oakland brings back Bartolo Colon or another short-term starter. He has previously reported that the Royals might be interested in buying low on Anderson.
  • The Mets, meanwhile, "have been looking more at second-tier and third-tier free agents." That fits the most recent rumors out of New York, though it is sure to disappoint those who expect the club to ink at least one major free agent. As I discussed in my offseason outlook for the Mets, the club has professed to have $40MM in payroll space for next year, and so far has committed less than a fifth of that by signing Chris Young.
  • Likewise, according to Olney, the Rockies are putting out word that they do not have a lot to spend in free agency. Of course, the club reportedly made legitimate runs at both Jose Dariel Abreu and Brian McCann, though it could be that it was only willing to spend big on certain players.

MLB And MLBPA Release 2013 Report On PED Testing

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Yesterday, MLB and the MLB Player's Association released the 2013 public report on the Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program (commonly referred to as the JDA). The report was compiled by Dr. Jeffrey M. Anderson, the Independent Program Administrator.

The report addresses drug testing over the period between the start of the 2012-13 off-season and the end of the 2013 post-season. A total of 5,391 drug tests were conducted, 4,022 of which were urine samples analyzed for PEDs and/or stimulants. The remaining 1,369 instances were blood samples tested for human growth hormone (hGH).

Of the samples analyzed, eight resulted in "an adverse analytical finding that resulted in discipline," all of which were for the stimulants Adderall or Methylhexaneamine. The report also notes thirteen "non-analytical positives" that resulted in discipline. In addition, the league granted 122 therapeutic use exemptions, the vast majority of which were for Attention Deficit Disorder.

Comparison to last year's report shows marginal increases in overall testing numbers. In 2012, there were 5,136 samples taken, 3,955 of which were urine tests and 1,181 of which were for blood. That means that, along with 67 more of the former, there were an additional 188 instances of blood testing this time around. Therapeutic use exemptions remained relatively constant. The most interesting fact, perhaps, is that no positive PED tests were identified, down from seven last year. Instead, this time around, we saw the thirteen suspensions based upon Biogenesis-related investigation rather than testing. 

Of course, the JDA provides careful parameters for testing. Every player is subject to a urine test upon reporting to Spring Training and is subject to an additional random urine test at some point between the commencement of Spring Training and the end of the championship season (i.e., the conclusion of the regular season). The JDA allows 1,400 additional random tests, 200 of which were allowed to be performed during the off-season in the 2012-13 testing period. As for blood testing for hGH, every player must provide a sample at an unannounced point during Spring Training and a sample can also be taken in conjunction with an off-season urine test. The JDA also provides for further testing based upon reasonable cause as well as follow-up testing for disciplined players.

In large part, of course, the figures released yesterday confirm that the testing program took the form that the JDA contemplated. Last year, about 4.5 tests were performed for each of MLB's 1,200 available roster spots. (Of course, roster spots aren't always all full, and a good number of players cycle through them in a given season.)

But a good portion of the testing is not truly unpredictable, as it takes place at the start of or during the six-week Spring Training period. Assuming that the MLB testing figures reflect a relatively low number of reasonable cause and follow-up tests, something in the vicinity of 3,000 tests were essentially random. With about 320 non-Spring Training days on which those tests could theoretically have fallen, and 1,200 MLB roster spots available on a given day, the percentage of "player-days" that see some kind of surprise PED test is a comfortable bit less than 1%. 

Depending upon how baseball plans to implement and report its in-season hGH testing program, those testing rates stand to remain essentially constant through the life of the current JDA, which expires on December 1, 2016. So, is that sufficient, at least for the time being? 

As MLB COO Rob Manfred has explained, the frequency and randomness of testing is critical. Discussing minor league testing back in 2010, he said: 

"We not only incrased the number of tests conducted this year in the [Dominican Republic], but significantly altered the pattern of testing. And, whenever we do that, we get a spike. Major League, Minor League, in the DR, whenever we change the pattern so that it's not predictable, we get a spike."  

These old-but-illuminating comments are especially interesting in light of the fact that the testing system registered no PED hits this season after logging seven in 2012. It would seem naive to assume that the shift reflects a sudden and drastic reduction in PED use. But if it instead constitutes a step back for testing efficacy, what is the solution? Unless a numerical increase in tests can be negotiated, Manfred's past statement indicates that the league may need to get creative with its process to ensure that baseball's PED testing protocol adequately supports its disincentive system.

AL East Notes: Cano, Orioles, Drew

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Robinson Cano denied asking the Yankees for a $300MM deal back in the summer, writes Andy Martino of the New York Daily News, but just because Cano didn't utter the words himself does not mean that his representatives did not float that number. That was just the "midseason request," however, Martino explains. Now that the star second baseman has reached the open market, his camp has re-set its asking price and is scheduled to meet with the Bronx brass again on Monday. Here's more from the American League East:

  • The Orioles are quietly waiting for the free agent starting pitching market to fall into place, writes Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun. We've heard before that the club is quite interested in returning Scott Feldman, who was acquired in mid-year from the Cubs, and Encina guesses he'll take two years and $16-18MM to land. In his detailed breakdown of Feldman, MLBTR's Steve Adams projected his value at two years and $17MM, plus a vesting option. Other arms that might draw attention from Baltimore, according to Encina, are Bronson Arroyo and even A.J. Burnett, if he decides to look around the market. 
  • Shortstop Stephen Drew is still a great fit for a Red Sox infield that currently features Xander Bogaerts and Will Middlebrooks on the left side, writes John Tomase of the Boston Herald. If Drew can't get a club to give up a pick to sign him to a multi-year deal, Boston could swoop back into the mix and try to land him on another one-year contract, perhaps with an implicit promise not to extend another qualifying offer, Tomase suggests.

Pirates, Yankees Nearing Chris Stewart Trade

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8:51am: Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports (via Twitter) that the Yankees would receive cash or a player to be named later in the deal that's being discussed.

8:27am: The Pirates are on the verge of acquiring catcher Chris Stewart from the Yankees, according to ESPN's Buster Olney (Twitter link).

Stewart, 32 in February, is a non-tender candidate after hitting .211/.293/.272 in a career-high 340 plate appearances with the Yankees in 2013. However, he's regarded as a superior defensive catcher to Michael McKenry, who is a non-tender candidate himself after missing the final two months of the 2013 campaign due to knee surgery.

Stewart projects to earn $1MM in arbitration, per MLBTR's Matt Swartz, while McKenry's projection sits at $900K. Either backstop will likely face competition in the form of Tony Sanchez, who offers more with the bat at a slightly lower price.

This post was originally published on Dec. 2, 2013.

Pitching Notes: Dodgers, Giants, Mujica, Ayala, Williams

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The market for starting pitchers has actually started off at reasonable prices, argues Mike Axisa of CBSSports.com. Running the numbers on the price of a projected win for the starters who have signed to date, he says that a preliminary look shows that early-moving teams look to have achieved solid value. Here's more on the pitching market around the league:

  • Even if the Dodgers are willing to spend the huge amount of cash that Masahiro Tanaka's posting and signing is expected to require, says Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com, it is far from clear how the club would sort its rotation out to accomodate him. GM Ned Colletti has said that he is "not going to close the door on any more starters" even after adding Dan Haren on a one-year deal with a vesting option. Saxon notes, however, that it would be more difficult to push aside Josh Beckett and/or Chad Billingsley than it was for the club to do last year with Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang. Of course, Tanaka may be good enough that, if the price is right, that problem is one you just deal with as best you can.
  • The Giants, on the other hand, seem less likely than their rivals to the south to consider the addition of another starter, with Bob Nightengale of USA Today reporting that the club's rotation is set after re-signing Ryan Vogelsong. As Alex Pavlovic of the Mercury News noted earlier today, the rotation seemed complete upon the return of Vogelsong, given GM Brian Sabean's earlier comments that he would not make the veteran compete for his slot in the spring. Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum, and Tim Hudson round out the club's starting five.
  • Meanwhile, it could well be that San Francisco could look to add pen pieces given their decision to add veteran arms to the back of its rotation, reasons Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Sulia). It is easier and cheaper to add relief arms, he notes, and the club could look to ease the burden on its starters by following the Dodgers and Cardinals in trotting out multiple arms that can throw quality innings.
  • Free agent reliever Edward Mujica of the Cardinals is drawing interest from a variety of teams, according to Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDish.com. The Angels are probably out after inking Joe Smith, Cotillo notes. But the Orioles, Indians, and Cubs have at least kicked the tires on Mujica, joining the Phillies in pursuit of the 29-year-old. 
  • Right-handed reliever Luis Ayala, who produced solid results last year at age 35 for the Orioles and Braves, is also in search of a multi-year deal, Cotillo reports. He has not yet seen an offer, but has received interest from the Red Sox and Rays as well as the Dodgers, Giants, O's, and Phils. Meanwhile, the Royals have seemingly stepped away from Ayala after showing initial interest.
  • One other arm that could enter the market is Angels righty Jerome Williams. Soon to turn 32, Williams' agent Larry O'Brien tells Cotillo (Twitter link) that he is rooting against a tender from the Halos since "there are many teams he could effectively start for." That statement seems to imply what has long been suspected about Williams, which is that Los Angeles does not intend to use him as a starter. As MLBTR's Tim Dierkes wrote in reporting Matt Swartz's $3.9MM projection for Williams, a non-tender is a very real possibility for the swingman. Of course, as MLBTR's Zach Links has explained, there are few teams with as many projected rotation holes as the Angels.

Dodgers Discussing Extension With Hanley Ramirez

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Hanley Ramirez said recently that he has had ongoing extension talks with the Dodgers, Dionisio Soldevila of ESPNDeportes.com reports (Spanish language link). The 29-year-old is under contract for next year, but his impressive output in an injury-shortened 2013 makes him a definite extension target for Los Angeles. 

Reiterating once again that he hopes to stay with the Dodgers for the rest of his career, Ramirez said that he believes a new deal could be reached this winter. "We are negotiating something, but we are going step by step," he said (in Spanish). Ramirez declined to discuss the salary and length under consideration, but it is safe to say that the shortstop/third baseman is in line for quite a substantial contract when his current six-year, $70MM pact expires.

Last year, in 336 plate appearances, Ramirez posted an outstanding .345/.402/.638 slash, including twenty home runs and ten stolen bases. His 191 wRC+ landed just behind Miguel Cabrera among players with triple-digit plate appearances. In sum, his half-season of work was good for 5.1 fWAR, 25th among field players in all of baseball. 

Dodgers Avoid Arbitration With Elbert, Butera

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4:50pm: Butera's deal includes $100K in attainable performance bonuses, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Likewise, Elbert can earn up to $100k in incentive pay, Heyman further tweets.

4:01pm: The Dodgers' deals with Elbert, Butera, and Mike Baxter are all non-guaranteed, Hernandez tweets.

3:49pm: The Dodgers have avoided arbitration with Scott Elbert and Drew Butera, according to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times (on Twitter).  Elbert gets a one-year, $575K deal while Butera will earn $700K (link).  

Our own Matt Swartz projected that Elbert would earn $600K through arbitration while Butera would get $700K.  Elbert, 28, underwent Tommy John surgery in June and was considered a non-tender candidate, but it would appear that the Dodgers are confident that he will bounce back strong in 2014.  The lefty reliever posted a 2.20 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in 2012.  

Butera, 30, saw just six big league games in total last season for the Twins and Dodgers.  The catcher came to Los Angeles in a July 31st deal for a player to be named later.  In 43 Triple-A games last year, Butera hit just .187/.228 /.281.

The Dodgers have now avoided arbitration with three of their players today after signing Elbert, Butera, and Mike Baxter earlier today.  There are four remaining arbitration eligible Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw, Kenley Jansen, A.J. Ellis, and Ronald Belisario.

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