Quick Hits: Cuba, Padres
Earlier tonight, I asked MLBTR if the Padres will reach the postseason in 2015. Of the 33% respondents who said yes, most felt a Wild Card slot was more likely than a division title. Here’s the latest San Diego and Cuba news.
- Teams are unlikely to establish academies in Cuba any time soon, writes Jon Morosi of FOX Sports. The Cuban market is unlikely to be based on free agency, like in the Dominican Republic or Venezuela. Some form of a posting system will probably be put in place. Alternatively, Cuba could be included in a rumored international draft. That means individual clubs will be loathe to invest in local infrastructure when all 30 teams could ultimately benefit.
- Padres GM A.J. Preller is bringing a whole new level of tenacity and leadership to San Diego, writes Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Preller, who Matt Kemp described as a “rock star,” is best known as a talent hawk. Despite a flurry of moves in the last couple days, more are expected. In addition to solving a roster crunch in the outfield, Preller is expected to dive into the international market and improve upon the organization’s amateur infrastructure.
Poll: Will The Padres Reach The Postseason?
The Padres have been busy over the last couple weeks, with more moves likely to come. Recently hired GM A.J. Preller has pivoted from the organization’s slow rebuilding process to add established major league stars. Preller reportedly recognized a rotation capable of competing now, and he decided to add win-now position players to complement that strength.
The Padres have made eight moves this month, trading a number of prospects and young major leaguers in the process. The headliners are the additions of outfielders Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, and Wil Myers in separate trades. The club also added catcher Derek Norris in a swap with the A’s, third baseman Will Middlebrooks in a trade with the Red Sox, and signed three free agents – Josh Johnson, Brandon Morrow, and Clint Barmes.
More trades are likely to be on the horizon. The club currently has an overwhelming volume of outfield depth. In addition to Kemp, Upton, and Myers, the Padres also have Seth Smith, Carlos Quentin, Cameron Maybin, Will Venable, Abraham Almonte, and Rymer Liriano. Almonte and Liriano have options, but the Friars likely need to deal two of the remaining four. First baseman Yonder Alonso could also be a trade candidate if the club is comfortable with somebody like Quentin or Smith manning first.
The moves were clearly made with an eye on the postseason. The lineup is now a safe bet to improve upon it’s league worst 535 runs scored. Of course, adding a few stout bats doesn’t guarantee a good outcome. Last season, the Atlanta Braves received strong offensive performances from Upton, Freddie Freeman, and Jason Heyward. They finished second to last in runs scored with 573. Excluding Evan Gattis when healthy, the supporting cast failed the Atlanta lineup. The same could easily happen in San Diego, where Middlebrooks, Norris, Alonso, Barmes, and Jedd Gyorko appear to be the everyday cast. There are reasons to be concerned about the offensive ceiling of all five players.
The Padres also pulled from their pitching depth to swing the trades. Jesse Hahn, Joe Wieland, and Burch Smith were dealt as part of the mayhem. Internal depth plus the additions of Johnson and Morrow could help to offset the losses, of which Hahn is the most noteworthy. Of course, Johnson and Morrow are major injury risks – both pitchers are frequent guests of the disabled list.
Despite trading a large quantity of prospects, the Padres managed to hang onto their best, namely catcher Austin Hedges, pitcher Matt Wisler, and outfielder Hunter Renfroe. Assuming the club doesn’t have more big moves up their sleeve, this month’s activity doesn’t necessarily cripple the minor league pipeline.
And that brings us to tonight’s poll question. Has Preller accomplished enough for the Padres to reach the postseason? Remember, San Diego probably has to best at least one of the Dodgers and Giants.
Will The Padres Reach The Postseason
-
No, they don't have enough firepower to pass the Dodgers, Giants, and other NL contenders 43% (11,520)
-
Maybe, once they finish rounding out the roster 25% (6,708)
-
Yes, but they'll have to settle for a Wild Card 24% (6,520)
-
Yes, they will win the division 8% (2,141)
Total votes: 26,889
McDaniel On International Bonus Pools
A number of teams are expected to break the bank on international talent next July, writes Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs.com. Due to international spending restrictions, teams that spend more than 15% above their allotted pool may not ink any international free agents for over $300,000 in the following two signing periods. However, there is growing consensus within the industry that an international draft will be implemented when baseball’s Collective Bargaining Agreement is re-visited after the 2016 season. If a draft is put in place, teams will have only two years to live with the current arrangement.
McDaniel’s sources have suggested that as many as 10 teams may blow past their limit when the next signing period begins on July 2. The Cubs, Blue Jays, and Phillies will “almost definitely” exceed their respective pools. As McDaniel notes, plans will likely be affected by verbal commitments as we get closer to July. Additionally, the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, and Angels have greatly exceeded their budgets during the current signing period, meaning they will be penalized during the next two periods.
If there truly are only two more years before a draft is implemented, then teams have an interesting “strategic choice.” At least four clubs – possibly five pending the outcome of the Yoan Moncada bidding – will be handicapped. More will spend heavily next summer, making themselves ineligible for big signings in 2016. If enough teams are aggressive, it could be advantageous to wait until 2016 for a spending spree. McDaniel also points out that the penalized teams are mostly those who usually spend a lot on international talent.
Put it all together, and it’s increasingly clear that clubs are unconcerned about the international bonus pool. While small market clubs may be loathe to pay excessive taxes (100% on overages), those theoretically get passed onto the player via a lower signing bonus. In my opinion, if most of the big spenders are excluded from the marketplace in 2016, then we could see some nontraditional sources of big bonuses.
Ohio Notes: Floyd, Murphy, Howard
With the addition of right-handed pitcher Gavin Floyd, the Indians have a wealth of rotation options, writes Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. The unit is more about projection than proven ability, which is why the club signed Floyd. Cleveland now has seven starting pitchers competing to fill out the rotation behind Cy Young winner Corey Kluber. Zach McAllister, who is expected to join the bullpen, is out of options, as are Trevor Bauer and Carlos Carrasco. The latter pair and Floyd are thought to have roles locked down, which leaves T.J. House, Danny Salazar, Josh Tomlin, and McAllister to battle for the last spot – assuming Floyd is healthy.
- Speaking of Floyd, other pitchers with an injury history, like Brett Anderson, Kris Medlen, Luke Hochevar, and Justin Masterson signed for more guaranteed money than Floyd this offseason. That’s why Floyd was able to sign for $4MM plus another $6MM in incentives despite missing 2013 for Tommy John surgery and the second half of 2014 with a broken elbow. From his perspective, Floyd chose Cleveland in part due to their strong track record with injured and struggling veterans. Recently, Scott Kazmir and Ubaldo Jimenez revived their careers with the Indians.
- The Indians have a handful of left-handed outfielders, which leads Pluto to believe David Murphy will be traded. Murphy is owed $6MM in 2015. This is my speculation, but we learned earlier today that the Giants could turn to the trade market for a left-handed outfielder.
- Nick Howard, the Reds first round pick (19th overall) has joined Jeff Randazzo and the Ballengee Group, tweets Chris Cotillo of SB Nation. For more agency related information, visit MLBTR’s Agency Database.
Cherington On Hanigan, Middlebrooks, Rotation
Here are the results of Red Sox GM Ben Cherington’s press conference this afternoon to discuss the Ryan Hanigan / Will Middlebrooks trade, via Tim Britton of the Providence Journal:
- Cherington says the Sox have been interested in Hanigan for over a year, so they jumped at the chance to acquire him as a backup and insurance policy for youngster Christian Vazquez. “If you look at all the criteria we look for in a catcher, Ryan checks all the boxes: very good defender and game-caller, well-respected, a tough at-bat, capable of playing a lot — that’s a nice bonus,” Cherington says.
- Cherington admits he sold low on Middlebrooks, who hit just .191/.256/.265 in 234 big-league plate appearances in 2014. “Obviously we’re not trading Will at a particularly high point right now,” says Cherington. “We still believe in him. The last few years haven’t gone well, but the talent is still in there.”
- The Red Sox aren’t currently actively looking for rotation help, Cherington says. Britton notes, though, that given the pitching the Red Sox have already acquired this offseason (Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Justin Masterson), it wouldn’t make sense for the Red Sox to declare dissatisfaction with their current rotation, whether or not they were still hunting for starters.
- Cherington says he’ll “keep an eye open” to potential bullpen upgrades.
NL West Notes: Preller, Giants, Kemp, Kendrick
The Padres‘ new lineup might not make them the best in the NL West, but GM A.J. Preller’s flurry of activity has made the team relevant again, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick writes. “I think he went in there very open-minded,” says Preller’s former boss Jon Daniels, who notes that Preller’s background in finding amateur talent with the Rangers might have made rebuilding the more obvious course than the one he ended up following. “To his credit, when he saw they had a strong pitching foundation and such a good environment with the staff, he knew they had an opportunity to build off that and not take it backwards.” Here’s more from the NL West.
- Giants GM Brian Sabean says the team has not had discussions with Max Scherzer and does not plan to, the San Jose Mercury News’ Alex Pavlovic tweets. Pavlovic adds that Sabean does not think much of the current free agent market for left fielders, and instead could attempt to acquire one in a trade. Sabean says (via John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle on Twitter) that the team has “limited financial flexibility,” given their recent signings of Jake Peavy and Sergio Romo and trade for Casey McGehee, and must decide whether to spend aggressively on James Shields or a left fielder.
- Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is aware of the risks involved in trading Matt Kemp to San Diego, Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times writes. “We get it. I have a lot of respect for what he can do in the batter’s box,” says Friedman. Nonetheless, the Kemp trade and the Dodgers’ many other offseason moves have been aimed at “mold[ing] our roster into the most highly-functioning baseball team, as opposed to a collection of talent,” he says.
- The Dodgers’ acquisition of Howie Kendrick from the Angels for top pitching prospect Andrew Heaney might not work out unless the Dodgers can sign Kendrick to an extension, Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times writes. If Heaney becomes a reliable starter for the Angels, the Dodgers will need to sign Kendrick to get good value from the deal. Both Kendrick and the Dodgers say the two sides have not yet discussed an extension, although Friedman suggests they could at some point.
Minor Moves: Lindblom, Rowen, Minicozzi
Here are today’s minor moves from around the league.
- The Pirates have released pitcher Josh Lindblom, per the MLB.com transactions page. The Bucs claimed Lindblom earlier this month, then designated him days later. He’ll reportedly head to the Lotte Giants in Korea. Lindblom posted a 5.79 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in the rotation of the Athletics’ Triple-A Sacramento affiliate in 2014.
- The Rangers have released pitcher Ben Rowen after designating him for assignment last week, according to the MLB.com transactions page. The 26-year-old Rowen posted a 3.45 ERA with 5.9 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in 47 innings of relief for Triple-A Round Rock in 2014, also appearing in eight big-league games. The Dallas Morning News’ Gerry Fraley explains that the Rangers were forced to place Rowen on release waivers, rather than outright waivers, due to an obscure rule that came into play due to an injury Rowen suffered early in the season and his time in the big leagues later on. The Rangers could re-sign him if he clears release waivers.
- The Nationals have signed 1B/OF Mark Minicozzi to a minor-league deal, tweets CSN Bay Area’s Andrew Baggarly, noting that Minicozzi announced the news on his Facebook page. The 31-year-old independent league veteran posted an impressive .298/.400/.470 line at Triple-A Fresno in the Giants’ system in 2014, but he’s never played in the Majors.
East Notes: Phillies, McGehee, Eovaldi, Mets, Yankees
The Phillies could get involved in the bidding for infielder Asdrubal Cabrera, but they would need to clear some payroll first, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets. The Phillies, of course, recently traded Jimmy Rollins to the Dodgers, and they currently have Freddy Galvis atop their depth chart at shortstop, so there’s a clear opening for Cabrera if they feel he can handle the position defensively. Here’s more from the East divisions.
- Telling Casey McGehee he had been traded to the Giants was a difficult task for Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill, Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun Sentinel writes. “Extremely difficult decision because he did mean so much on the field and in the clubhouse, a true pro in every sense in the word,” says Hill. The Marlins were able to deal McGehee for two young pitchers because they acquired Martin Prado from the Yankees to play third base.
- Speaking of the Martin Prado trade, Mike Axisa of River Ave Blues writes that the Yankees have acquired an interesting project in Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi has excellent velocity but hasn’t yet gotten great results, and Axisa (who cites Fangraphs’ Eno Sarris) wonders if Eovaldi might get better results by dropping his weak changeup and focusing on his fastball, slider and curveball. Axisa considers Garrett Jones more of a throw-in, but one who fits well with the Yankees given their veteran hitters’ struggles to stay healthy.
- The Mets‘ trade of reliever Gonzalez Germen to the Yankees on Friday was only the 16th transaction between the two clubs, the New York Daily News’ Anthony McCarron reports. It was also the only trade between the cross-town rivals in 10 years — in 2004, the Mets sent Mike Stanton to the Bronx for Felix Heredia.
AL East Notes: Duquette, Hundley, Rays
Orioles executive Dan Duquette is a great fit to replace Blue Jays president and CEO Paul Beeston, but if the Jays want him, they should be willing to pay a significant price, ESPN’s Buster Olney writes (subscription required). The right executive can make a huge difference for a franchise, but Duquette is under contract with the Orioles through 2018, so if the Blue Jays want him, the Orioles should ask for top young players (as in one or more of Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Daniel Norris, Jeff Hoffman, Max Pentecost or Richard Urena) in return. Here’s more from the AL East.
- The Orioles had hoped they could re-sign catcher Nick Hundley, but it appears he has found a two-year offer with another team, so he likely won’t be returning, MASNsports’ Roch Kubatko tweets. Hundley, 31, posted a .243/.273/.358 line in 233 plate appearances with the Padres and Orioles last season, but he has a solid defensive reputation. The O’s declined their $5MM option on Hundley in October.
- After trading Wil Myers to San Diego, the Rays remain optimistic about contending in 2015, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. “While there’s been a lot of change, the talent level at the major-league level remains very high, and we should be a formidable club,” says president of baseball operations Matt Silverman. Silverman adds that although the Rays could continue making moves (Topkin mentions the possibility of a Ben Zobrist trade), they’re not likely to make “seismic changes.”
Indians Sign Scott Downs
The Indians have announced that they’ve signed lefty reliever Scott Downs to a minor league deal with a spring training invite. Downs will make $800K plus incentives if he makes the team, Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer tweets.
Downs pitched 38 innings last season for the White Sox and Royals, posting a 4.97 ERA with 5.9 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9 while suffering through diminished velocity — Downs was never a hard thrower, but his average fastball fell to 86.9 MPH in 2014. Downs had success as recently as the previous year, when he had a 2.49 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 for the Angels and Braves. In his 13-year career, the 38-year-old has also pitched for the Cubs, Expos and Blue Jays.