With J.J. Hardy off the market, teams looking for a pure shortstop suddenly lack an obvious potential solution. Sure, Hanley Ramirez still hits like an All-Star corner outfielder, but he also accumulated the second-most negative defensive value of any shortstop in 2014 (per Fangraphs) and has put his 20’s in his rearview. Any club signing him will have to expect a move to third at some point over the life of his deal, if not from the get-go.
Teams that simply want a new field marshal up the middle will have three primary options to choose from, each of whom brings somewhat different strengths, downsides, and expected contract terms.
As we sit here today, the Indian-turned-National Asdrubal Cabrera has yet to turn 29 years old. He has never quite met his promise, but has put up several well-above-average years both at the plate and in overall value. Defensive metrics have never been fans of the glove, but Cabrera is pretty solid at the plate and is a good bet to deliver 15 homers and 10 steals. And while he’s had his share of bumps and bruises, Cabrera has not missed any significant stretches since a forearm fracture back in 2010. But Cabrera was shifted to second after his mid-season trade to the Nationals, and some think that’s where he should stay.
Stephen Drew, most recently of the Yankees, is the oldest of the bunch, and he is coming off of a disastrous, qualifying offer-shortened 2014 season. Drew was worth over one win below replacement, thanks to an abysmal .162/.237/.299 slash over 300 plate appearances. But he has otherwise been pretty good when healthy, and had a good enough 2013 that he spurned the one-year, $14MM QO in hopes of finding a longer deal on the open market. And there’s an argument to be made that Drew is the best defender of this group. Given his depressed value, he could be a popular buy-low candidate.
The Athletics’ Jed Lowrie, meanwhile, is just one year removed from posting a .290/.344/.446 slash with 15 home runs. But that was his first season of full-time action, and his age-30 follow-up year was not nearly so sterling (.249/.321/.355, 6 home runs). He did see improved defensive marks, but UZR is much more favorably inclined to his work up the middle than is Defensive Runs Saved, which saw him as a -10 defender. But if you believe he can stay at short, in some ways, Lowrie could end up being the safest bet of this bunch while also delivering a bit of power upside.
Let’s go ahead and take a poll. It will not ask you to pick the best player, or the one who’ll get the largest contract. Rather, it asks for which player — given their likely expected contract situation — is likely to provide the best value. For instance, given his age and durability, Cabrera is the best bet of this bunch for a lengthy deal — but that could make him the most expensive to acquire. And a rebound from Drew could make him an incredible bargain.
negative 28 runs saved over the last two seasons at SS for Lowrie, I’d take him at 2B over the other two in a heartbeat but he’s not a SS to me.
If I’m down to Drew vs Cabrera I’d take Drew only because I fully believe Cabrera gets 3-4 years and I’d rather have flexibility at the position over going longterm with someone I barley like.
I’d have to go with Drew, you could probably resign him for a broken bottle and a bent fork, and maybe get lucky he reclaims his lifetime numbers.
Uh, is that what Scott Boras’ clients get?
Droobz was a catalyst on the Nats. I’m afraid he’ll get too expensive to bring back but wish we could…
Is that a real nickname?
At least in Washington it is.
Awesome.
In Washington DC or state?
I don’t trust Cabrera’s bat, but I love his glove; I trust jeds bat and glove but not 100% and I think drew is a catastrophe contract waiting to happen. I think Bonifacio and Mike Aviles (if his option is declined) will be the bargains of the middle infield market.
If Drew makes enough to be considered a catastrophe then Boras is by far the best agent in all of baseball. I just can’t see him pulling down more than 7M on the high end of a 1 year deal, much more likely in the 4-5M area.
The only way Stephen Drew gets $7 million or more would be based on incentives.
Agreed. Honestly he really doesn’t even deserve a guaranteed contract after this past season, he still provides value on defense at a key spot though and is young enough to expect some sort of bounce back so 4-5M sounds about right.
All of these guys cry out for a one-year incentive-laden contract with possibly a team option for year 2.
Arizona is sitting in the catbirds seat with a SS to trade. Even Romaine or Suarez of the Tigers at low salaries are better investments.
A month ago I was screaming at Stephen Drew from the left field seats. But, after a month of reading up on all these SS’s, I would sign him. Sigh. I think I might owe him an apology.
I won’t apologize to him, but I would do a one-year incentive laden deal for about 6 million and let him and Ryan split time there.
I think the question needs to be more specific.
Which Shortstop Would You Rather Sign For Your Team? Cabrera
Which Shortstop Would You Rather Sign For Your Friends Team? Drew lol
Drew is going to be fascinating to watch. I wouldn’t be shocked if he (tells Boras) to take the first decent offer out there. I think he’s better than last year, which is a pretty safe bet, but there’s also the question of what the reaction of management is going to be. Which FO is going to want to pay any significant money (let’s even say $5-7M) and run the risk of him falling flat? It’s a very tough call. I’m not sure there really is an analogy to Drew’s situation to draw some comparisons to.
Stephen Drew flashes the leather well so even if his bat does not come back to life, he can easily be worth while as a SS, but personally, I think Drew’s bat will come back as he will have Spring Training and a full season on his side this time unlike in 2014. The other two do not have that excuse on their side.
If he hits anything close to the .162/.237/.299 he hit this year I don’t care if he’s the best defensive SS in baseball (note: he’s not close to that) he wouldn’t be able to make up for that lack in offense.
The thing with a bounce back is how much you should expect him to rebound, he’s only had an OPS over .713 once in the last 4 years afterall. Plus the one year he had an above league average bat he hit .283/.367/.491 at Fenway and .222/.295/.392 everywhere else. That’s before you even get into the fact that he was .196/.246/.340 against LHP in 2013, .129/.194/.177 against LHP in 2014, and .228/.285/.378 against LHP career.
So I’d expect him to be better than his 40 wRC+ this year but he’s still at his best a below league average platoon bat. He doesn’t have to hit quite league average to be a valuable player as you mentioned but even if he comes close to his 2012 (80 wRC+) output and matches something similar to that slash line of .223/.309/.348 he’s still probably a below average all around player.
Its sort of a trick question as Drew is the only SS of the three. Cabrera and Lowrie are 2B playing horrible defense at SS.
Lowrie has always had a solid bat and played okay defense, the highlight of which was a triple play as a member of the Sox. When he is healthy he’s one of the top 10 shortstops in the game and I feel like a reunion could be in order.