Analyzing The Five Players Who Opted Out
As I mentioned in my opt-out feature article last week, five players have used an opt-out to secure a new contract or extension: Alex Rodriguez, J.D. Drew, A.J. Burnett, C.C. Sabathia, and Rafael Soriano. A-Rod and Sabathia stayed with the Yankees, with Sabathia getting a year added to his contract just before the point of opting out. Drew, Burnett, and Soriano signed with new teams.
One negative often associated with opt-out clauses is that if a player has two or three good years, he'll just opt out and his former team will miss out. But what if the five players above had not opted out? Would their teams have come out ahead?
For this exercise, we'll use FanGraphs' dollar valuations, which were explained here by Dave Cameron. My definition of an opt-out clause is a provision where the player can become a free agent midway through a multiyear deal, at a point where he has multiple guaranteed years remaining.
- Alex Rodriguez: Opted out of 2008-10 seasons, for which the Yankees would have paid him $72MM. A-Rod produced 13.7 WAR during that time, which was worth $60.1MM. He was a very good player from 2008-10, averaging about 4.6 WAR per year, but he didn't provide great value for the price.
- J.D. Drew: Opted out of 2007-09 seasons, for which the Dodgers would have paid him $33MM. Drew produced 10.5 WAR during that time, which was worth $46.8MM. This opt out hurts in that regard, though the Dodgers paid $22MM for Drew's 6.8 WAR in 2005-06, which is valued at $24.2MM. While it would have been excellent value to have Drew for the duration of his five-year, $55MM contract, the Dodgers didn't do poorly in getting the first two years.
- A.J. Burnett: Opted out of 2009-10 seasons, for which the Blue Jays would have paid him $24MM. He was worth 4.3 WAR during that time, valued at $19.2MM. The Jays wound up paying $31MM for 10.7 WAR from 2006-08, which is valued at $45.2MM. As former Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi put it in our interview, "We put the opt-out in there and in all honesty, it ended up working out great for us."
- C.C. Sabathia: Would have opted out of 2012-15 seasons, for which the Yankees owed him $92MM. Sabathia's 7.3 WAR from 2012-13 was worth $34.3MM, and it's difficult to picture him producing $57.7MM worth of value for his age 33-34 seasons. Had the Yankees allowed Sabathia to opt out and leave after 2011, they would have missed out on a strong 2012 season. Still, the case can be made that they should have let him go after paying $69MM for 17.5 WAR from 2009-11, which is valued at $76.8MM.
- Rafael Soriano: Opted out of 2013 season, for which the Yankees owed him $14MM. I'm not a big fan of using WAR to evaluate reliever salaries, but I am comfortable saying Soriano's 2013 season was nothing special and not worth his salary. I should note that Soriano's post-2012 opt-out doesn't fit neatly into our definition of the clause — with one year left at that point, it resembled a player option, which is more common.
Take a look at the following table, which shows each player's age in the season immediately following his opt-out:
Of the ten opt-out clauses in baseball history, only Tanaka could opt out and sign a new contract that begins on the right side of 30. Even Kershaw could be mortal by his age 31 season. With an average age of 31 after the opt out, it's not surprising that with four of the five opt-outs that have been employed, the team was better off losing the player and the back end of his original contract.
Mike Trout, Angels Discussing Six-Year Extension
MONDAY: MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez reports that the Angels don't have to wait until Opening Day to sign Trout to an extension in order to avoid luxury tax ramifications. Because Trout has already had his 2014 salary set, the Angels can structure an extension beginning with the 2015 season without undergoing penalty. In other words: they can extend Trout as soon as they want. This, Gonzalez writes, is the same rationale the Yankees used when signing Brett Gardner to a four-year extension that doesn't kick in until 2015.
SUNDAY, 2:00 pm: "No comment, but I like how a lot of people are writing it. It's pretty funny," Trout told reporters, including Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times.
12:46 pm: Mike Trout and the Angels are discussing a six-year deal worth about $150MM, Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports reports. The deal would buy out two free agent seasons, and allow Trout to become a free agent at age 28. FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal tweets the Angels' desire is for a seven-year pact in the $150-160MM range. Trout is represented by LSW Baseball.
There are still details to iron out, as Passan notes that there remains a difference between the two sides in the "low eight figures." The deal will cover one pre-arbitration season, as well as three arbitration years. Fangraphs' Dave Cameron recently wrote about the possibility of a Trout extension and estimated Trout might make a total of $60MM during his arbitration seasons, so a $150MM extension over six years might essentially buy out two free agency years at a little less than $45MM apiece.
Passan suggests that, in practice, Trout might actually get $35MM and $38MM in those seasons. Those still sound like enormous figures, but they're hardly surprising given the escalation of salaries throughout baseball and given that those two free-agency years would be the age-26 and age-27 seasons for the best player in the game. The $25MM average annual value would tie teammate Josh Hamilton as the richest for an outfielder (per Cot's Baseball Contracts), but the six-year, $150MM proposal would still fall far short of the record-setting seven-year, $215MM extension Clayton Kershaw signed with the Dodgers last month.
The timing of the extension is crucial to the Angels, according to Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. The Angels are not believed to be interested in signing Trout to a deal that includes 2014, because it would likely push them over the $189MM luxury tax threshold. Fletcher reports the Angels are approximately $15MM under the threshold now and, by reaching a deal on a 2015 contract sometime after Opening Day, could avoid going over because it would not count against this year's cap, even if Trout receives a sizeable signing bonus to be paid in 2014.
Recently, Jeff Todd asked MLBTR readers about the parameters of a Trout extension. The consensus (as measured by the median of responses) was the Angels should be willing to give Trout a 10-year, $300MM deal, but a nine-year, $250MM contract is more likely to be reached.
Edward Creech contributed to this post.
Pirates Claim Brent Morel
The Pirates announced that they have claimed infielder Brent Morel off waivers from the Blue Jays. Toronto designated Morel for assignment last week after claiming right-hander Liam Hendriks off waivers from the Orioles. Pittsburgh will announce a corresponding 40-man roster move later today, according to a team press release.
Morel cracked Baseball America's Top 100 list as a White Sox farmhand prior to the 2011 season but has slashed just .229/.276/.333 batting line in 669 Major League plate appearances. A bulging disk in his back has played a large part in the offense decline for the 26-year-old, who in 2010 batted .322/.359/.480 across two minor league levels. He's drawn praise for his glove at third base, though Toronto was reportedly going to use him at second base.
MLB Implements New Home Plate Collision Rule
Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association announced today that they have agreed to implement an experimental rule that is designed to eliminate "most egregious collisions at home plate." The official language of the rule, per the press release, is as follows:
- "A runner attempting to score may not deviate from his direct pathway to the plate in order to initiate contact with the catcher (or other player covering home plate). If, in the judgment of the Umpire, a runner attempting to score initiates contact with the catcher (or other player covering home plate) in such a manner, the Umpire shall declare the runner out (even if the player covering home plate loses possession of the ball).
- Unless the catcher is in possession of the ball, the catcher cannot block the pathway of the runner as he is attempting to score. If, in the judgment of the Umpire, the catcher, without possession of the ball, blocks the pathway of the runner, the Umpire shall call or signal the runner safe."
The rule, numbered Rule 7.13, does not bar players from colliding with a catcher if the ball is already clearly in the catcher's possession by the time the runner reaches home plate. Factors in determining whether or not a runner violated the rule will be whether or not he made an effort to touch home plate, lowered his shoulders or pushed through the catcher leading with his hands, elbows or arms. Runners who slide and catchers who leave a path for the runner to get to the plate will not be found in violation of the rule.
MLB and the MLBPA will form a committee of players and managers to review the rule as the season progresses, with an eye on full-time implementation for the 2015 season. Rule 7.13 plays will be reviewable under expanded instant replay.
Indians Have Approached Kipnis About Extension
Recent reports have indicated that the Indians will make a push to extend All-Star second baseman Jason Kipnis, and today, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports that Cleveland's front office has begun the process. Heyman isn't sure how much progress has been made, only that the two sides have begun talking.
The 26-year-old Kipnis slashed .284/.366/.452 in 2013 — his second full season at the Major League level. The Beverly Hills Sports Council client tallied 17 homers and 30 stolen bases as well, helping him earn his first All-Star nod and an 11th-place finish in the American League MVP voting.
As we've seen already in 2014, Spring Training is a time when many clubs hammer out extensions with their key players. However, Cleveland doesn't necessarily need to rush, as Kipnis is not arbitration eligible until next offseason and is under team control through 2017. However, another All-Star season would likely cause his price tag to skyrocket, and he said last April that he didn't want to talk about a new contract once the season started.
MLBTR's Charlie Wilmoth recently profiled Kipnis as an extension candidate. Kipnis wouldn't be the only extension for GM Chris Antonetti and his staff, who have already inked Michael Brantley to a four-year, $25MM pact this winter.
Yankees Extend Brett Gardner
Brett Gardner was positioned to be one of the top free agents in next year's class, but he's no longer on the market. The Yankees officially announced today that they have signed the Pro Star Management client to a four-year extension with a club option for a fifth season. Gardner's new deal begins in the 2015 season and is reportedly worth $52MM. He receives a $2MM signing bonus and will earn $12MM in 2015, $13MM in 2016, $12MM in 2017 and $11MM in 2018. The 2019 club option is worth $12.5MM and contains a $2MM buyout.
"It's something that's been in the works for a little while," Gardner said (as quoted by Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News). "I made it known to them that I wanted to stay here and be a part of this. I learned from guys that come from other places that there's no better place to play, so I look forward to staying here and helping the team win."
Yankees GM Brian Cashman told reporters, including Curry (Twitter links ), negotiations began with agent Joe Bick during the Winter Meetings and was hopeful something could be worked out because the 30-year-old was one of the Yankees' best players last season.
"I like what he brings — the speed dynamic, the defense and I think the offense is there as well," Cashman said (as quoted by MLB.com's Joey Nowak). "Although he's going to be playing left field most of the time for us, I think he's one of the better leadoff/center fielders that this game can provide."
Cashman also said some contract language still needs to be ironed out, but the extension is a done deal (via Curry's Twitter feed). ESPN's Buster Olney tweets Michael Bourn's four-year, $48MM deal with the Indians a year ago was a comparable used during negotiations.
Gardner will make $5.6MM in 2014, his final season before free agency eligibility. His future with the Yankees briefly seemed to be in doubt after the Yankees acquired Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran this offseason, as there were plenty of rumors that the Yankees might trade him. In late December, however, the Yankees said they had "absolutely no intention" of trading Gardner, and this deal reveals their high level of commitment to him. That high level committment, however, does not involve a no-trade clause. Curry tweets Gardner asked about no-trade protection, but the Yankees did not want to do it.
Gardner's extension removes him from the free agent corner outfield market next offseason. Gardner agruably would have headlined the group, which, per MLBTR's 2015 Free Agents list, could include Michael Cuddyer, Norichika Aoki, Josh Willingham, Torii Hunter and Melky Cabrera.
The YES Network's Jack Curry first reported (on Twitter) that the two sides were nearing a four-year, $52MM contract, and Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweeted that the agreement had been reached. Heyman also tweeted the yearly breakdown, with Joel Sherman of the New York Post adding that Gardner would receive a $1MM bonus if traded.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Edward Creech and Steve Adams contributed to this post.
NL East Notes: Davis, Alderson, Braves, Desmond, Gonzalez
Mike Puma of the New York Post wrote last night that Ike Davis concealed an oblique injury for much of the season prior to Aug. 31, when it worsened and sidelined him for the remainder of the year. Davis took exception to the story and addressed Puma and other reporters today, writes ESPNNewYork.com's Adam Rubin. He quotes the first baseman: "You made it look like an excuse. It’s an excuse. It shouldn’t have been a story anyway. … I sucked last year because I sucked. It’s not because I had an injury. You always have injuries. And now it just looks bad."
More from the NL East…
- Mets COO Jeff Wilpon has indicated that the team is likely to pick up GM Sandy Alderson's option for the 2015 season, writes Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News. Alderson's contract expires after the season, and while some have mentioned his name as a possible replacement for retiring commissioner Bud Selig, David Wright thinks Alderson wants to stay with the Mets and complete the rebuild he's begun since taking over as GM. Said Wright: "Everybody is kind of concerned with how they are remembered. … he wants to be remembered for taking an organization that was struggling and slowly building it up with the system with some good trades and free-agent signings."
- David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution examines the psychology behind long-term deals for young players, noting that some believe extensions can relieve pressure, while others feel the extensions provide extra pressure, as players feel they must live up to that contract. O'Brien spoke with each of the five players the Braves have signed to multi-year deals in the past three weeks and got their takes on their new contracts.
- Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond spoke with Mark Zuckerman of NatsInsider.com and reflected on the decade he's spent with the organization. Desmond is appreciative of GM Mike Rizzo for declining trade offers when he was struggling and also appreciative of managers Davey Johnson and Jim Riggleman for playing him through those struggles.
- Cuban right-hander Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez will make his debut for the Phillies on Thursday this week, giving the club a chance to evaluate the pitcher they signed for $12MM last August, writes CSNPhilly.com's Jim Salisbury. Salisbury writes that Gonzalez has merely looked "so-so" to this point and could end up in the minors to open the season if he doesn't win the fifth starter's job.
International Notes: Kenta Maeda, Aledmys Diaz
We've seen a continued rise in the prices of international stars over the past few years, and the 2013-14 offseason has been no exception with Masahiro Tanaka leading to a $175MM expenditure from the Yankees and the Dodgers dishing out a combined $53MM for Cuban infielders Erisbel Arruebarrena and Alexander Guerrero. Here's the latest on the international front…
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote last week that there are split opinions on whether or not Japanese right-hander Kenta Maeda will be posted following the 2014 offseason. Maeda, 26 in April, has a career 2.41 ERA with 7.2 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 1116 1/3 innings for the Hiroshima Carp. As Sherman notes, he's not as highly regarded as Tanaka or Yu Darvish, but Maeda is considered on of Japan's top two starters. He does have four years of team control remaining, so he's no guarantee to be posted.
- NPB Tracker's Patrick Newman looks at Maeda's strengths and weaknesses, noting that Maeda has gone on record as saying he wants to pitch in Major League Baseball. Newman feels that Maeda can hack it as a mid-rotation arm in the Majors, praising his durability, solid fastball and ability to spot two offspeed pitches.
- One club official who watched Cuban infielder Aledmys Diaz's last workout told Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com that Diaz profiles as a utility infielder and may struggle at shortstop in the Majors (Twitter link). The Yankees have reportedly passed on Diaz, but multiple other clubs still have interest.
Orioles Notes: Hardy, Cruz, Chen, Santana
Let's take a look at a few notes out of Orioles camp to start out the day: …
- Late last week, Baltimore had an in-person meeting with J.J. Hardy's agent regarding the initiation of extension discussions, reports Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun (via Twitter). Though both sides have indicated an interest at keeping the shortstop off of next year's free agent market, Hardy said recently that no talks had taken place.
- Baltimore is expected to announce later today that Nelson Cruz has signed a one-year deal and passed his physical, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. A press conference is likely to occur tomorrow.
- Southpaw starter Wei-Yin Chen, who inked a three-year deal out of Taiwan before the 2012 season, is set to become a free agent after either 2014 or 2015, says Kubatko. (His deal contains a $4.75MM club option with a $372K buyout for 2015.) Though Chen's Baseball-Reference page indicates that he would qualify for arbitration beginning next year, and stay under club control through 2017, that is not the case.
- Multiple sources tell Kubatko that the O's are not in on free agent starter Ervin Santana. The club would need only sacrifice its third-round pick to ink Santana or one of the other remaining free agents tied to draft compensation (Kendrys Morales and Stephen Drew), having already given up its first and second to land Cruz and Ubaldo Jimenez.
Quick Hits: Blazek, Axford, Olt, Frasor, Santana, Rays
The Brewers shipped out reliever John Axford to the Cardinals at last year's trade deadline, bringing back young righty Michael Blazek. Milwaukee has been impressed with the 25-year-old, with manager Ron Roenicke saying he profiles as a late-inning arm, reports Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentine. Meanwhile, after being non-tendered by the Cards and signed by the Indians, Axford hopes to continue learning from his brief stint in St. Louis. As MLB.com's Jordan Bastian reports, his former club informed him that he'd been tipping pitches, and Axford hopes that correction — along with regained velocity — will allow him to return to his peak form.
Here are more stray notes from around the game …
- Another trade deadline mover, Mike Olt of the Cubs, has shown substantial improvement in the eyesight issues that plagued him last year with the Rangers, reports Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun Times. Though his prospect stock has fallen in the meantime, all that matters to Olt is maintaining his health. "As long as I'm healthy," he said, "I know that I can do what I was capable of."
- Reliever Jason Frasor explained that he elected to re-sign with the Rangers for the simple reason that he likes playing for the club, reports Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas.com. "Free agency isn't that great for middle relievers," he said. "I never wanted to be the kind of guy that bounced around from team to team as middle relievers often do with one-year deals. I found a place I really, really liked. … I think I was the first [free agent] to sign [this offseason]. I just didn't feel it was worth it to try to scrape out maybe a little better contract … ."
- One free agent who faces a much more open-ended market is former ace Johan Santana. As Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports, Santana has fielded interest from at least three American League clubs. The 34-year-old is hoping to be ready to take the mound in a big league game in June.
- The Rays' roster battle features several situations where options will play a role, reports Bill Chastain of MLB.com. Among the players who must make the active roster or face a DFA are Chris Archer, Josh Lueke, Jake McGee, Cesar Ramos, Brandon Guyer, and Matt Joyce.