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2015-16 Offseason Outlook

Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners

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A new front office has a busy offseason ahead as the Mariners will try to end baseball’s longest postseason drought.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Robinson Cano, 2B: $192MM through 2023
  • Felix Hernandez, SP: $104MM through 2019
  • Kyle Seager, 3B: $92.5MM through 2021 ($15-20MM club option for 2022, with buyout between $0-$3MM based on performance)
  • Nelson Cruz, RF/DH: $42MM through 2018
  • Seth Smith, OF: $7MM through 2016 (includes buyout of $7MM club option for 2017)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

New general manager Jerry Dipoto has wasted little time in reshaping Seattle’s baseball operations, hiring several new faces for the minor league, player development and scouting departments in an effort to upgrade a talent pipeline that faltered under former GM Jack Zduriencik.  A lot of changes have been made to the on-field unit as well, most visibly in a revamped coaching staff led by a first-time manager in Scott Servais.  It adds up to an organization that will (in theory) be on the same page and use analytical information as a cornerstone, something that wasn’t the case under Zduriencik’s tenure or in Dipoto’s previous GM stint in Anaheim.

While this bodes well for the Mariners over the long term, Dipoto will have to hit the ground running this winter.  The M’s fell way short of lofty offseason expectations in 2015, though with so many major stars on board, the feeling definitely still exists in Seattle that the Mariners are closer to contending than they are to a rebuild.  It makes sense for the Mariners to go for it while Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano, Felix Hernandez and Kyle Seager are all still productive, as it’s not known how long the window will be open; after all, Cano and Hernandez showed some warning signs of decline last season.

The Angels signed some major free agents when Dipoto was GM, though it’s well-known that owner Arte Moreno played a huge role in the signings of Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton.  Dipoto himself is a bit more reticent about free agents, telling Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times that “the trade market is always my first alternative.  You draft, scout and develop, you trade, and to me free agents augment the roster you have. In a perfect world, you get to a stage where the foundation is strong enough you use free agency as a pure accent move rather than a foundational builder.”

This would seem to imply that the M’s probably won’t be players for Chris Davis, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton or other open-market superstars who could turn roster weak spots into immediate strengths.  Further complicating matters is the fact that Seattle fell painfully shy of a protected pick in the first round of the 2016 draft, falling to the 11th overall selection by virtue of a tiebreaker with the White Sox (who had the same 76-86 record).  If the Mariners were to sign a free agent who had rejected a qualifying offer, they’d lose that 11th overall pick (the top unprotected pick in next year’s draft), which I highly doubt Dipoto would be willing to do given his quest to rebuild the farm system.

With almost $79MM committed to just five players in 2016, the Mariners also might not have the available payroll to afford another huge salary.  While massive contracts may not happen, Seattle could still ink a few lower-cost free agent deals.

For instance, the industry expects that the Mariners will re-sign Hisashi Iwakuma, as both the team and the player have interest in a reunion.  This would be a good move for a Seattle team in need of proven starting pitching, and since Iwakuma turns 35 in April and the free agent pitching market is rather deep, the M’s might be able to re-sign him on a two-year deal in the $28-30MM range.  If there’s enough demand that a third year is required, then the club is looking at a three-year/$42-45MM contract for the Japanese righty.  Things could change on the open market, of course, though at the moment the M’s look like the early favorite for Iwakuma’s services.

Assuming Iwakuma re-signs, he would join Hernandez, Taijuan Walker and new acquisition Nate Karns in Seattle’s rotation.  James Paxton is tentatively slotted into a spot as well, though he’s failed to pitch more than 74 innings in either of the last two seasons due to a shoulder injury (in 2014) and an injured finger tendon (in 2015).

Roenis Elias, Vidal Nuno and former top prospect Mike Montgomery are on board as depth options or fifth starter candidates if Iwakuma leaves.  A fairly inexpensive veteran could also be added to the mix to fight for that last rotation job, and the M’s have had some good luck with veteran reclamation projects looking to rebuild themselves at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field.

Karns, left-hander C.J. Riefenhauser and minor league outfielder Boog Powell came to Seattle in Dipoto’s first notable deal as GM, with Brad Miller, Danny Farquhar and Logan Morrison heading to Tampa Bay in return.  Karns posted a 3.67 ERA, 8.9 K/9 and 2.59 K/BB rate over 147 innings with the Rays last season in his first extended taste of Major League action.  He’s a bit old for a rookie (Karns turns 28 in November) but he’s controlled through the 2020 season and looks to be a very promising arm in the M’s rotation for years to come.

Riefenhauser hasn’t shown much over his 20 career MLB innings, though he adds a needed left-handed option to a bullpen that Dipoto has openly stated will be an area of focus this winter, and he has a strong Triple-A track record.  Tom Wilhelmsen and Carson Smith are basically the only relievers who look to have guaranteed jobs next year.  Rookie Tony Zych will get a long look in Spring Training after an impressive late-season callup, while Charlie Furbush will probably return unless the biceps injury that sidelined him for much of the second half continues to be an issue (which could lead to a non-tender).

Wilhelmsen and Smith both saw action at closer in the wake of Fernando Rodney’s implosion, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Mariners brought in a more established ninth-inning man given that Wilhelmsen has struggled to keep the closer’s job both in 2015 and in the past, while Smith also lost the gig back to Wilhelmsen late last year.  Joakim Soria makes sense as a target, or perhaps someone with past closer experience like Jonathan Broxton if the M’s wanted to at least keep Wilhelmsen/Smith in the mix for the closing job.  The Mariners are one of a few teams who have scouted Korean closer Seung-hwan Oh, who could be an intriguing option as he’s planning to make the jump to North American baseball.

Seattle could be very deep or very thin in left-handed relief options depending on Furbush’s health, Riefenhauser’s Spring Training performance and the roles of Nuno/Montgomery (who could be used in the bullpen or kept stretched out in the minors as starters).  The Mariners will at least check in on the offseason’s top-tier lefty relief options (Antonio Bastardo, Tony Sipp, etc.) and veteran Joe Beimel could also be re-signed to reinforce the southpaw corps.

Around the diamond, the Mariners are only set at third base (Seager), second base (Cano), and wherever Cruz plays, which is probably more likely to be DH than right field next season.  He’s been a defensive liability for years, and Dipoto has spoken of wanting to improve the Mariners’ athleticism and defense, particularly in regards to playing in a spacious ballpark like Safeco Field.

Powell and the recently-claimed Dan Robertson were Dipoto’s first steps towards addressing this outfield need, as both can play all three positions.  Robertson may be more of a depth option while Powell is likely on the verge of reaching the bigs after a solid performance in 246 Triple-A PA in 2015.  An everyday assignment may be a stretch, but Powell could certainly factor into the Mariners’ wide-open center field spot, if not early in the year then midseason.  Powell and left field incumbent Seth Smith are both left-handed hitters, so a right-handed hitting free agent outfielder like Rajai Davis or Chris B. Young could be a fairly inexpensive fits as platoon partners.  Robertson could also be an internal option for a right-handed platoon bat, and Franklin Gutierrez is another familiar face the M’s could look to re-sign for a part-time role.

If the Mariners want a full-time option in center, any number of free agent or (further) trade possibilities could be considered.  Jackie Bradley, Juan Lagares, Leonys Martin, Marcell Ozuna, Dalton Pompey and Melvin Upton could all conceivably be made available for trade this winter.  Denard Span would make sense in free agency, as he wouldn’t cost a draft pick since the Nationals didn’t extend him a qualifying offer.  Austin Jackson likely isn’t an option given how he has already under-performed in an Mariners uniform.  Dexter Fowler and Colby Rasmus, the other two major center fielders on the market, do have qualifying offers attached so they’re not likely to be targeted.

While I noted earlier that the Mariners probably won’t be big free agent spenders, if they were to make a big splash, Yoenis Cespedes could be a fit.  Due to his midseason trade, Cespedes isn’t subject to the qualifying offer and can be signed without draft pick compensation.  He certainly matches Dipoto’s preference for an athletic outfielder, though while he’s one of the game’s best defensive left fielders, Cespedes has graded as below-average in center over his career.  He could handle center for a year and then move back to his customary left field spot once Smith’s contract is up, or Cespedes could be installed into left immediately and Smith would become trade bait.

With Miller now in Tampa Bay, that solidifies Ketel Marte as the top choice at shortstop.  Marte played well enough last year to crack Baseball America’s midseason top 50 prospects list and earn his first call-up, then fit right in to the tune of a .283/.351/.402 slash line over 247 PA.  Marte has the inside track on the everyday job, with Chris Taylor on board as the middle infield backup.

Mike Zunino is still too young (24) to be considered a bust, especially given his top prospect pedigree and his already-outstanding defensive ability.  At the plate, however, Zunino posted a miserable .174/.230/.300 line over 386 PA last season, so Seattle certainly needs a catcher to pick up some of the offensive slack.  While Chris Iannetta himself struggled at the plate in 2015, I’m guessing Dipoto might be interested in his former Angels backstop as a veteran mentor to Zunino who can still contribute on the field.  If not Iannetta, Geovany Soto or Alex Avila make sense among free agent catchers, though if the Mariners weren’t committed to Zunino at least half the playing time, they could aim for Dioner Navarro or A.J. Pierzynski.

The first base situation became clearer when Morrison was sent to the Rays, and his departure probably saves the M’s from having to non-tender him to avoid a projected $4.1MM arbitration salary.  Mark Trumbo delivered some pop after joining the club from the Diamondbacks, though his lousy defense resulted in only 0.4 fWAR in 361 PA as a Mariner.  Trumbo’s limited skill set and projected $9.1MM salary combine to make him a non-tender candidate as well, though my guess is that the M’s would explore trading Trumbo rather than simply cutting him for no return.

With so much uncertainty at first, any number of interesting bats like Adam Lind, Ryan Howard, Brandon Moss, Adam LaRoche, Yonder Alonso or Pedro Alvarez being available in trades (or free agency, in the case of non-tenders).  While none are guaranteed to be big offensive powerhouses, they could at least be part of a platoon that could do more at a lesser cost than Trumbo’s $9.1MM, especially since some of the teams making those deals would have to eat some money, i.e. the Phillies and Howard or the White Sox and LaRoche.  A huge signing like Chris Davis can’t be completely ruled out simply because he’d be such a big upgrade, though as mentioned earlier, giving up another first-round draft pick and adding another huge salary would seem counter to what Dipoto is trying to do with the team.  A trade could be the likelier route to a first base upgrade.

With all this talk of trades, however, it’s well worth looking at what exactly the Mariners have to offer in return.  Further trades from the Major League roster could be a bit difficult, though, since the M’s were already lacking in depth.  As noted earlier, Trumbo or Smith could be trade bait.  If another catcher is acquired, Jesus Sucre, John Hicks or Steve Baron could be dealt.  One of Elias, Nuno or Montgomery could be moved if Iwakuma re-signs and Paxton proves he’s healthy.  These small pieces won’t combine for any blockbusters, but Seattle could help their own depth problems by moving expendable pieces for bench parts that are more likely to contribute in 2016.  Case in point, that deal with the Rays looks like a strong one on paper for Dipoto, as Morrison and Farquhar might have outlived their usefulness in Seattle.

Baseball America ranked the Mariners’ farm system 25th of 30 teams prior to the season, and that was before top prospects Alex Jackson and D.J. Peterson both suffered through rough 2015 campaigns.  While both (Jackson, in particular) are still well-regarded, Dipoto and his new minor league staff may not have the same attachment to Zduriencik’s prospects and could see them as trade chips while they still have value.  On the other hand, the reason for the player development overhaul was to better develop prospects both in the future and in the present, not to write off the current batch of young talent.  Given how thin Seattle’s system is, you’re probably only going to see a notable prospect traded if Dipoto and his staff have already decided against the player.

In a way, Dipoto finds himself in something of the same position that he was in as the Angels general manager — a few superstars on huge contracts, a few regulars best suited to platoon duty, little minor league depth, and some payroll limitations.  In Anaheim, however, those limitations were Moreno not wanting to exceed the $189MM luxury tax threshold, while in Seattle, Dipoto will have at least $130MM to work with.  While that’s a healthy number, if you count Iwakuma’s projected salary with the five players under contract, that leaves roughly $33MM for 19 members of the 25-man roster.

Dipoto won’t be judged entirely on his first offseason, of course, especially given the less-than-great shape the organization was in when he inherited the job and the sweeping changes he’s already trying to implement.  Many of the players from the Mariners’ 87-75 season in 2014, however, are still around, so a return to contention shouldn’t be out of the question as long as at least some of the major question mark positions are resolved.

Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks

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The Diamondbacks remained in contention longer than most expected in 2015. GM Dave Stewart, chief baseball officer Tony La Russa and senior VP of baseball ops De Jon Watson will look to supplement the club’s core of exciting young position players this winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Yasmany Tomas, OF: $52.5MM through 2020 (Tomas can opt out of the final two years, $32.5MM)
  • Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $27.5MM through 2018 (including buyout of 2019 club option)
  • Aaron Hill, 2B/3B: $12MM through 2016

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR)

Contract Options

  • Brad Ziegler, RHP: $5.5MM club option — exercised earlier this week
  • Josh Collmenter, RHP: $1.825MM club option — exercised earlier this week

Free Agents

From a pure payroll standpoint, the Diamondbacks look to be in excellent shape moving forward. Arizona has just $32.68MM committed to five players for the 2016 season (including the exercised options on Brad Ziegler and Josh Collmenter), and one of those commitments (Aaron Hill) will be shopped this winter. If the club tenders all of its arb-eligible players, that’d bring the total commitment to just over $58MM, and it’s possible that a few of those names will be non-tendered. Jeremy Hellickson is listed as one such candidate above, but he could also be traded to a club in need of innings. The former AL Rookie of the Year has now struggled for three straight seasons. A team without the financial wherewithal to spend much more than that might look at Hellickson as a reasonable roll of the dice, but he’s no longer the inexpensive upside play the Diamondbacks acquired last offseason, and Arizona arguably has more intriguing (or at least more affordable) internal options.

With that in mind, the pitching staff will be Arizona’s top priority this offseason. Patrick Corbin returned from Tommy John surgery and was highly impressive, so he figures to be a lock for the rotation. Another lefty, Robbie Ray, figures to have nailed down a rotation spot after posting a 3.52 ERA with solid peripherals in 127 1/3 innings of work. Chase Anderson and Rubby De La Rosa each posted ERAs well north of 4.00, though in De La Rosa’s case it’s worth noting that he utterly dominated right-handed hitters and was crushed by lefties. The D-Backs probably aren’t ready to go this route yet, but he seems very capable of becoming a late-inning bullpen weapon if he’s unable to find a third pitch to help him keep lefties off balance. Anderson, while his results weren’t outstanding, has looked the part of a capable fourth/fifth starter for two straight seasons now. Arizona also has Jhoulys Chacin, who delivered solid results in Triple-A and the Majors and could, at the very least, serve as a swingman for a reasonably affordable price tag.

Top prospect Archie Bradley had a difficult season. The right-hander suffered a fractured sinus when a rocket off the bat of Carlos Gonzalez came back up the middle and hit him in the face. It was a gruesome, frightening scene, but Bradley was back on the hill less than a month later. That return was short-lived, as a bout of shoulder tendinitis sidelined him for more than two months. Bradley, presumably, is still a big part of Arizona’s future, but he’s yet to deliver on the hype that made him one of the Top 10 prospects in baseball prior to the 2014 season. Other intriguing, upper-level arms include Braden Shipley and Aaron Blair. Both righties rank in the Top 100 prospects, per MLB.com, and both could arrive in 2016. That gives Arizona the option of letting the kids audition for rotation spots or packaging some upper-level talent to make a run at a proven rotation upgrade.

GM Dave Stewart has made no secret of his desire to add rotation help this winter. The D-Backs courted James Shields last offseason and figure to be in on the second tier of free agent arms this offseason as well. Mike Leake’s name has already been mentioned in connection with the team on more than one occasion, and considering the fact that the longtime Reds hurler played his college ball some 10 miles from Chase Field at Arizona State, the former Sun Devil may very well have interest in signing on as a Diamondback.

If Stewart and his staff want to aim for more upside, Jeff Samardzija has inconsistent results but top-of-the-rotation potential. Scouts love Samardzija’s frame and pure stuff, and Arizona is a heavily scouting-driven organization in an age of increasingly analytic-minded clubs. Stewart has also shown a willingness to spend on the international front (Yasmany Tomas, Yoan Lopez), so if Japanese right-hander Kenta Maeda is posted this winter, look for the Diamondbacks to show interest. Jordan Zimmermann is somewhere between the very top of the pitching market and that second tier, and he could conceivably be of interest as well. Additionally, the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro recently listed older veterans that will command shorter-term deals, such as John Lackey and Hisashi Iwakuma, as excellent fits for the D-Backs — a notion with which I firmly agree.

Any of those pitchers could command north of $15MM on an annual basis, but the Diamondbacks’ lack of long-term commitments on the books should make them relatively easy to fit into the picture while also presenting the opportunity to backload some contracts a bit to add more talent in 2016. The team does face some increasing arbitration salaries, but Ziegler, Hill, Hellickson and Hudson are all slated to come off the ledger next winter, lessening the risk of backloaded signings.

The bullpen is another area of need, and the team made an effort to upgrade in the most dramatic way possible over the summer by pursuing Aroldis Chapman. With just one year of control remaining, Chapman strikes me as an imperfect fit, to say the least. Some reports have indicated that the goal is to acquire and extend the flamethrowing lefty, but Chapman would, assuredly, command a record-setting contract for relief pitchers. Great as Chapman is, a lengthy commitment to a relief pitcher doesn’t seem like an optimal way for the D-Backs to maximize their long-term financial flexibility.

If the Diamondbacks are set on trading for a relief ace, I’d submit that a more reasonable trade target would be the Phillies’ Ken Giles. Philadelphia isn’t likely to consider Giles a building block due to the volatile nature of relievers, and his most valuable (i.e. least expensive) seasons will be, in some sense, wasted in Philadelphia as the club looks to rebuild. In a similar vein, Milwaukee’s Will Smith is a highly appealing relief arm on a rebuilding team that will begin to get expensive this winter via Super Two status. As such, the Brewers may be open to trading him even though he’s controlled through 2019.

Wiser still may simply be to make some short-term investments in free-agent relief help. Ryan Madson had a dominant rebound season with Kansas City and should receive, at most, a two-year commitment. Shawn Kelley is coming off an impressive year in San Diego after multiple seasons of strong peripherals but less-impressive bottom-line results. At least one lefty reliever should be added in some capacity, as well. Antonio Bastardo and Tony Sipp make for attractive targets, having stifled both left- and right-handed hitters in recent years.

Turning to the lineup, the D-Backs have little work to do. The outfield is strong, with David Peralta, Ender Inciarte and the grossly underrated A.J. Pollock comprising a solid starting unit. Tomas could factor into a corner position and provide the lineup with some thump, but his 2015 struggles and the team’s depth could allow him to start in the minors if he has a poor spring showing. Pollock is an extension candidate, albeit an older one at the age of 27. It’ll be tough to balance out the team’s desire to buy free-agent years and Pollock’s age, as he’s currently slated to hit the open market entering his age-31 season. Delaying that much more significantly dampens his earning power, so the options are probably a three-year deal to buy out his arb years (giving the team financial certainty), a four-year deal to delay free agency by one season (in the Michael Brantley mold, perhaps) or a significant six-year deal that rewards Pollock handsomely up front while dampening his mid-30s earning power.

The acquisition of Welington Castillo proved to be a huge victory for Stewart and his staff, as Castillo would go on to out-produce the man for whom he was traded — Mark Trumbo. (There were, of course, four other players in the deal, but Castillo was the most immediate piece of help Arizona received.) He should be the team’s regular catcher in 2016, though because he’s a not a great defender, adding a veteran, defense-first backup option isn’t a bad idea. Slugging prospect Peter O’Brien reportedly will give catching another try, but the powerful righty switched to the outfield earlier this year after developing issues with his throws back to the mound. Few scouts have pegged O’Brien as a catcher, and the outfield, first base or (following a trade) DH might be a more realistic future for him.

In the infield, Paul Goldschmidt ranks among baseball’s most elite all-around players, but the rest of the group isn’t as certain. Jake Lamb is a potential regular at third, but he hit just .249/.313/.358 with a 26.5 percent strikeout rate from June through September after returning from a stress reaction in his left foot. Chris Owings and Nick Ahmed have the defensive chops to be a stellar middle-infield duo, even if Ahmed won’t ever hit much. However, Owings is supposed to be known for his bat but instead posted an anemic .227/.264/.322 batting line with only four homers. Owings was plagued by shoulder issues in 2014 that eventually required surgery, and those troubles lingered into 2015. He has an outstanding Triple-A track record, so there’s hope for a turnaround, but he’s far from a sure thing.

Prospect Brandon Drury can handle both second base and third base, making him a candidate for the Opening Day roster given uncertainty surrounding Lamb and Owings, but the D-Backs seem like a strong candidate to pursue a versatile infield piece. Mike Aviles, Clint Barmes and old friend Cliff Pennington all make some sense in that regard, and Asdrubal Cabrera represents a higher-upside option that could move around the infield. He’d probably command starter money, though, which may be more than Arizona cares to spend, as the hope is that the cheap, young, in-house infielders figure it all out.

The elephant in the room (or in the infield, as it were) is Hill, who is owed $12MM next season in the final year of his contract. Drury’s presence means that Hill is even more redundant than he was in 2015. He’s been an obvious trade candidate for quite some time, but no takers have materialized due to his high salary and eroded production. The D-Backs will try to move him and may ultimately have to release him, but his situation creates opportunities for other clubs.

Arizona has already shown a willingness to part with prospect value as a means of shedding payroll, doing so blatantly in the Touki Toussaint/Bronson Arroyo trade with the Braves and doing so somewhat less blatantly earlier in the 2015 campaign by essentially trading a Competitive Balance draft pick to Atlanta in exchange for salary relief on Trevor Cahill’s deal. A rebuilding team with holes around the infield — think Phillies or Brewers — could offer to take on some or all of Hill’s contract in exchange for prospect value from the D-Backs.

That, of course, isn’t an ideal scenario for the D-Backs, but if the $12MM were able to be reallocated toward an immediate boost in the rotation or in the bullpen, then the team would be receiving much more apparent benefit than in the midseason trade of Toussaint. Shedding Hill’s salary would leave Arizona with just $46MM in 2016 commitments, which would be enough flexibility to pursue virtually any free agent on the market. That doesn’t mean fans should expect a run at David Price or Zack Greinke, but dealing Hill would create room to add a pair of second-tier free agents in addition to two relief upgrades and possibly some infield depth.

The D-Backs have some work to do, but their excellent outfield, the presence of Goldschmidt and a full year of Corbin in the rotation form a great start to a contending roster. If either Lamb or Owings breaks out and the team leverages its wide-open payroll capacity to make a few legitimate pitching upgrades, it’s not hard to envision meaningful baseball in Arizona sooner rather than later.

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

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The deck has been cleared in Philly, and now it’s time for the new front office to chart a course.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Ryan Howard, 1B: $35MM through 2016 (including buyout of 2017 option)
  • Matt Harrison, SP: $28MM through 2017 (including buyout of 2018 option)
  • Carlos Ruiz, C: $9MM through 2016 (including buyout of 2017 option)
  • Miguel Gonzalez, SP/RP: $4MM through 2016 (contract includes 2017 vesting option)

Arbitration Eligibles

Options

  • Cliff Lee, SP: $27.5MM club option ($12.5MM buyout) — option already declined by club

Free Agents

The Phillies constitute a fairly blank slate, in more than one respect. Heading out of the 2015 season after a year that featured an unusual amount of change, it’s hard to predict exactly how the club will proceed.

Philadelphia also features a brand new, hard-to-predict leadership group. Plurality owner John Middleton has been around for some time, but has steadily increased his ownership share and only recently stepped into the public spotlight for the first time. Incoming president Andy MacPhail has been running teams for quite a while, but was last at the helm in 2011 with the Orioles. He made the first big move of his tenure by firing long-time Phillies executive Ruben Amaro Jr. and replacing him with Matt Klentak. The youthful executive got his start under MacPhail in Baltimore, and more recently served as Jerry Dipoto’s assistant GM with the Angels, but has never functioned as a general manager. Philadelphia also decided to retain veteran baseball man Pete Mackanin as manager — his first permanent post after serving as an interim skipper on several occasions. The organization is even rolling out a new data and information system — the aptly-named “PHIL” — which is expected to assist the organization’s fledgling sabermetric efforts.

The fresh-look front office will inherit little in the way of future commitments. After sporting $100MM+ payrolls for each of the last seven years, the Phils have less than $65MM in obligations written in ink for 2016 and just a shade over $25MM thereafter. That’s quite a turnaround for a club that carried over $200MM in future promises in advance of the 2014 campaign.

As that wide-open future payroll would suggest, there aren’t many veteran pieces left. Ryan Howard has $35MM left on his deal, but that includes the buyout on a 2017 option, so he’s almost certainly entering his last year with the team (if he’s not moved beforehand). Veteran catcher Carlos Ruiz is in the same boat, though he only costs another $9MM. Cliff Lee’s buyout is included in the 2016 tally, as is the remainder of the money promised to Miguel Gonzalez. And the only other commitment that the team has is to lefty Matt Harrison, who was included as part of the salary workout undertaken in the summer’s Cole Hamels trade.

Neither is there much to worry about on the arbitration side of things. Just before Klentak was hired, the club outrighted former top prospect Domonic Brown, bringing his disappointing tenure with the organization to an end. He wouldn’t have earned much more than the $2.6MM he received through arbitration last year, and comes with another season of control thereafter, but the organization decided to cut bait after he put up back-to-back .634 OPS campaigns while delivering poor glovework in the corner outfield.

The remaining arbitration cases seem fairly easy. Jeanmar Gomez is a cheap and solid middle reliever. Andres Blanco, a historically light-hitting utilityman, had a career-best .292/.360/.502 batting line over 261 plate appearances (with most of the damage coming against lefties). There’s little harm in keeping him around on a cheap salary. It won’t be expensive to retain Freddy Galvis, either. While he’s not much of a hitter, he’s a good and versatile defender and strong baserunner.

Some would argue that it’s preferable to give a look to younger players rather than relying on the likes of Blanco and Galvis. But cheap veterans such as these allow teams to make promotions based upon developmental considerations rather than desperation. And it’s always good to have some experience and leadership in the clubhouse.

There are some other returning pieces that will factor into the offseason plans, of course. We’ll start in the infield, where Cesar Hernandez joined Blanco and Galvis in the middle infield (along with the since-traded Chase Utley). Like Galvis, he’s a light-hitting but versatile player who gives the organization flexibility. Youngster Darnell Sweeney, acquired in the Utley deal, will factor into the mix as well after making his MLB debut last year. The club could conceivably utilize those in-house options up the middle in 2016, or trade any one of them if an opportunity arises to add a new player who’s ready for big league action. Top prospect J.P. Crawford is the future at shortstop, and could end up as a mid-season call-up, but he has yet to play above the Double-A level. Third base is even easier: Maikel Franco will look to build off of his strong 2015 and make himself into a star.

The opposite scenario is in play at first and behind the plate. Philly could dump Howard and Ruiz for whatever salary relief it can find. Darin Ruf and Cameron Rupp are standing by as short-term replacements, or time-share options, depending upon what direction the team goes. Neither of those players is terribly exciting, of course, and both are much more useful against southpaws, but they could be paired with a variety of short-term free agents. There’s plenty of left-handed-hitting first base options, with Pedro Alvarez representing a somewhat interesting trade possibility, and catchers such as Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Alex Avila — both of whom are historically much better against righties — could be drawn by the promise of playing time.

In the outfield, too, Philly has somoe options but very few things etched in stone. Odubel Herrera was one of the more productive Rule 5 picks you’ll ever see last year, and he’ll get a chance to repeat in center. Aaron Altherr and Cody Asche are the only other 40-man outfielders under club control, though a number of the players discussed above (e.g. Galvis, Hernandez, Sweeney) have outfield experience. Altherr had an impressive debut, and could get a shot at regular playing time, while Asche has often been talked about as a trade piece since he might have more value to other teams that would put him back at third. There’s certainly room here to add a future-oriented piece, though it wouldn’t be surprising if the team simply brought back Jeff Francoeur and added another veteran free agent. This may be a place for the team to take a shot on a veteran who might like the idea of hitting at Citizens Bank Park and receiving everyday playing time. Austin Jackson comes to mind, as does Matt Joyce, a left-handed hitter who could platoon with Francoeur.

In the aggregate, a variety of positions — including, at least, second base, first base, catcher, and the corner outfield — remain unclaimed for the future. That’s not to say there aren’t down-the-line options in the organization, as prospects such as Scott Kingery (second base), Jorge Alfaro (behind the dish, if he can return to health and stick there), and Nick Williams, Cornelius Randolph, and Roman Quinn (in the outfield) are all filtering up. But those aren’t super-premium prospects of the Crawford variety, and prospect depth is always a good thing to have; if nothing else, of course, it provides trade chips when a team finally does reach contention (as the Astros and Mets both demonstrated this summer).

As with the position-player side of things, the rotation has a few interesting youngsters, some less-than-inspiring depth options, and an increasingly interesting group of prospects who might not quite be ready. Aaron Nola and Jerad Eickhoff were both solid in their late-season rotation runs, and ought to open the year with the big league staff. Beyond them, there’s little certainty. Adam Morgan should get a look this spring after posting a respectable-enough 4.48 ERA over his first 15 MLB starts. But ERA estimators suggest he was much worse, and his minor league track record isn’t terribly inspiring. None of the other returning pitchers who made starts last year for the Phils —Alec Asher, David Buchanan, and Severino Gonzalez — managed a big league earned run average of lower than 6.99. Matt Harrison could ultimately provide some frames, but his back issues are so serious that it’s hard to count on him for much.

There are more arms coming, some of whom (e.g., Jake Thompson, Zach Eflin, Ben Lively) could factor into the mix next year. But the Phillies don’t want to rush those pitchers to the majors — and start their service clocks — out of necessity. Dangling open rotation spots is a great way to attract buy-low free agents who’ll eat innings and could turn into summer trade chips. While CBP is a turn-off for pitchers, the leash should be relatively lengthy. Though last year’s choices of Aaron Harang and Chad Billingsley didn’t turn out so well, the organization will almost certainly add two or three rotation arms in free agency (and/or via trade). Doug Fister and Mat Latos might be drawn elsewhere, but pitchers like Mike Pelfrey, Trevor Cahill, Rich Hill, Alfredo Simon, Dillon Gee, Ryan Vogelsong, Kyle Lohse, Bud Norris, and Edwin Jackson are among the other hypothetical options. Some might require modest but not-insignificant comments, while others could even be minor league free agent targets.

There will be some open bullpen spots, too, though the unit had some useful performances last year. Young closer Ken Giles led the way, of course, taking over in the ninth after the departure of Jonathan Papelbon. Many have suggested that it could be an opportune time to cash in on Giles, and the club will have to consider it if a good offer can be procured. (It hurts to give up bright, young players, and it can be painful to part with a high-end closer, but Philly can move Giles if the Braves can trade Craig Kimbrel.)

Otherwise, the aforementioned Gomez joined pitchers like Luis Garcia, Elvis Araujo, and Hector Neris in posting sub-4.00 ERA campaigns. Dalier Hinojosa was even better, though he greatly outperformed his peripherals. The club just added Dan Otero from the A’s via waiver claim. Southpaw Mario Hollands, who underwent Tommy John surgery in April, could come back on line at some point in the year. All told, compared to the rest of the team’s issues, the bullpen looks plenty solid. But that’s not to say that a veteran addition or two wouldn’t be worthwhile. That’s especially true, of course, if Giles is dealt, in which case the Phils may be able to draw some free agents with late-inning experience who would be intrigued at the possibility of acting as closer.

Broadly speaking, it’s hard to imagine the new front office trying to spend its way into immediate contention, given that it’s starting with one of the league’s weakest current rosters. Indeed, the club finished with the  game’s worst record in 2015.

On the bright side, Philadelphia was able to finish on a high note with a decent second half while still landing the number one overall pick in next summer’s draft. With plenty of bonus money to spend in the draft and on next year’s international market, much of the organization’s attention will remain on accumulating young talent. The Rule 5 draft could again prove fruitful. And the Phils’ incredible payroll flexibility could open the doors to more creative routes, such as taking on expensive veterans packaged with talented young players from other organization that need to shed salary.

That’s not to say that there’s no merit to considering MLB additions of more significance than were made last year. There’s plenty of appeal to the idea of spending money to improve competitiveness and — in some cases — to tamp down future arbitration earnings and add potential trade pieces. It would be surprising, really, were Philly to completely ignore that possibility this winter. I’d expect the team to look for opportunities as players fall through the cracks amongst a talented group of free agents.

In truth, though, it’s not yet known whether the Phils will follow a slower course (like the fellow big-market-dwelling Cubs) or instead try for nearer-term competitiveness with a more blended approach. Some have suggested a more aggressive approach to infusing MLB-level talent into the system: chasing younger free agents who will contribute when the club is ready to contend. There’s a new TV deal and fans to be appeased, and it’s hard to argue that the Phils don’t have the capacity to spend. In theory, that strategy could include position players such as Jason Heyward and Justin Upton and pitchers like Mike Leake, Brett Anderson, and Kenta Maeda (if posted by his NPB club). Should the club decide to dump Howard, moreover, a run at Korean slugger Byung-ho Park (who’s in the middle of the posting process as we speak) could make sense.

There’s certainly some merit to the idea, at least if good value can be achieved, but the new front office has said it doesn’t intend to build through open-market signings (at least yet). It will also be difficult to woo top players into a rebuilding situation. And it’s always dangerous to pre-commit. Though the organization has deep enough pockets to take some risks, it surely wants to avoid handcuffing itself again with bad contracts.

My own expectation is that a more modest offseason lies ahead, particularly since Hamels has already been shipped out. Creative trade concepts ought to be pursued, and value sought on the open market, but it wouldn’t be surprising if something like a Giles swap ended up being the biggest move of the winter. Then again, with brand new baseball ops leadership in place, anything seems possible again in Philly.

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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Check out all the entries in the 2015-16 Offseason Outlook series here.

After racking up more regular-season wins than any other team in 2015, the Cardinals are set to contend again, as they usually do. First, though, they’ll need to address Jason Heyward’s impending free agency.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

  • Jaime Garcia, SP: 2016 club option for $11.5MM with $500K buyout (exercised). The Cardinals also have a $12MM 2017 option with a $500K buyout
  • Jonathan Broxton, RP: 2016 club option for $9MM with $1MM buyout (declined)

Free Agents

After winning 100 games and then losing in the NLDS, the Cardinals will try to fly even faster into the wind this offseason. Whatever solutions they come up with to their immediate roster issues, it will be difficult for them to continue to perform at such a toweringly high level. Of course, they should still be a strong team. The problem of how best to maintain a 100-win team is a great one to have.

The possibility of losing Heyward looms large. Heyward, acquired last winter after the tragic death of Oscar Taveras, had the kind of season he usually has — his offensive numbers were, on the surface, a bit disappointing, but he contributed all sorts of value with his fielding and baserunning, frequently changing games with his glove and arm. His youth and broad skill set will make him a mint in free agency, although he could receive somewhat less per season than the usual top free agent might. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently predicted Heyward would receive a ten-year, $200MM contract, perhaps with an opt-out. Any contract at or near that level is a risk, and the Cardinals will have plenty of competition, but they could certainly bid for Heyward at that price, given their modest payroll commitments in 2017 and beyond.

If Heyward signs elsewhere, the Cardinals can be flexible. They could pursue a lower-cost free agent outfielder, but it’s more likely they’ll simply go with veterans Matt Holliday and Jon Jay plus some combination of young outfielders Randal Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty and Tommy Pham, all of whom had surprisingly strong seasons in 2015. The Cardinals could then spend their available funds on other positions.

One of those positions could be starting pitcher, but likely only if they’re acquiring a top-flight player. The Cardinals have Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha and a healthy Adam Wainwright under control for 2016, along with Jaime Garcia, whose option they’ve already decided to exercise after a successful comeback season. They also have Carlos Martinez, although a season-ending shoulder strain makes his short-term future somewhat uncertain. Their depth options, like Tyler Lyons and Tim Cooney, are also fairly good ones, and top prospect Alex Reyes could potentially enter the picture late in the season. So despite the impending departure of John Lackey, there’s little reason for the Cardinals to pursue an innings-eater type.

They could, however, conceivably aim higher — they’ve already been mentioned as a possible bidder for this winter’s top free agent, David Price. Pursuing a free agent like Price (or Heyward, for that matter) does seem a bit tricky from a budgetary perspective, at least in the short term; the Cardinals’ Opening Day payroll was $122MM in 2015, and between their $90MM or so in existing commitments for 2016 and arbitration-year salaries on top of that, they don’t appear to have much room for a highly paid player. Given their very limited future commitments ($65MM in 2016, $33MM in 2017, and practically nothing after that), though, it would seem possible for the Cardinals to increase their payroll somewhat for 2016 with the understanding that they can limit their spending in the future if they need to.

Besides, if the Cardinals were to decide to pursue top free agents, they would have ways to trim payroll. In addition to non-tendering Brandon Moss, Peter Bourjos and Steve Cishek (all of whom had subpar 2015 seasons), the Cardinals could conceivably clear payroll space by trading someone like Garcia, especially if they sign a top starter. Garcia had a brilliant comeback season in 2015 and is well worth his option, but the Cardinals could look at his injury history and figure they might be able to get more certainty by spending their money differently. The Cardinals have also already declined Jonathan Broxton’s option, and they could also attempt to save a bit by non-tendering light-hitting backup catcher Tony Cruz.

The Cardinals could also potentially upgrade at first base, particularly if Heyward leaves. They were 25th in the big leagues in home runs last season, with 137, and first could represent one way to address that problem. Chris Davis would represent a huge improvement, and Korean slugger Byung-Ho Park might be a lower-cost option. Of the two, Park might be somewhat more likely — the Cards bid on Jung-Ho Kang last offseason, and GM John Mozeliak said at the time that the organization was interested in delving further into the market for Asian players. If the Cardinals do re-sign Heyward, they could pass on first base upgrades and have Piscotty spell Matt Adams there on occasion, particularly against lefties. Adams could also become a trade candidate in that scenario — he didn’t hit well in 2015, but a team with a bigger hole at first (or a need for DH) could have interest in taking a flyer on his bat.

Trevor Rosenthal, Kevin Siegrist and Seth Maness will all presumably be back in the bullpen. The Cardinals can also hope for more from Jordan Walden, who missed most of 2015 with a shoulder injury. A variety of other pitchers, including Sam Tuivailala, Miguel Socolovich and Lyons, could also contribute. It wouldn’t be a surprise to the Cardinals add a lefty to complement Siegrist, though, particularly if they plan on saving Lyons to start if needed. Lefty Randy Choate is a free agent, and the Cards might benefit from adding someone who they trust a little more against righties. Someone like Antonio Bastardo or Tony Sipp would make sense, although those pitchers figure to be in demand this offseason, with a relatively thin group of lefty relievers on the market. If the Cardinals can’t find someone from outside the organization, minor league southpaw Dean Kiekhefer could be a possibility. The Cards will also likely at least consider re-signing righty Carlos Villanueva, who was effective in multi-inning stints last season, although the need for him would be lessened somewhat by replacing Choate with a lefty capable of pitching full innings.

The Cards will also need to address their bench somewhat. They have solid outfield depth, but they’re a bit thin on catching and infielders. At catcher, Cody Stanley would probably have been the next man up if Cruz departs, but he’ll be serving an 80-game PED suspension for much of next season. The Cardinals can also use a somewhat stronger backup catcher than they’ve had recently, too, with Yadier Molina getting older (he’s now 32) and coming off a subpar offensive season. And now that the Cardinals have outrighted Pete Kozma, they only have Greg Garcia as an obvious backup to Jhonny Peralta and Kolten Wong, unless they want to push Cuban shortstop Aledmys Diaz to the big leagues after only 58 Triple-A plate appearances (or use minor league vet Dean Anna, who remains on their 40-man roster even though they showed little interest in him last season).

Beyond the roster tweaking, though, a key problem for the Cardinals this season is how to maintain, or even approximate, the amazing pitching results they got in 2015. The Cards’ 2.82 team ERA ran a full run behind their xFIP and about three quarters of a run behind their SIERA. They held batters to a .275 wOBA with runners on base and .266 with runners in scoring position. Each mark was at least 20 points better than their nearest competitor. They left 79.4% of runners on base, more than four percentage points better than the next-best team. Ed Feng of the Power Rank calculates that the Cardinals saved 105 runs more than expected via the clustering (or lack thereof) of their opponents’ hits.

The Cardinals gave about a third of that cluster luck back on offense. Still, as Ben Lindbergh of Grantland suggested in August, it’s difficult to find reasons that fully explain how the Cardinals’ pitchers got such great results last season. It’s probably unwise, therefore, to expect them to do so again in 2016, just as the Cards’ 2014 offense didn’t maintain anything resembling the amazing .330 average with runners in scoring position they’d posted the previous year.

Obviously, though, there isn’t much the Cardinals can do to address that problem other than to attempt to upgrade their roster the way they normally would. And, of course, they won 100 games last year, and it generally takes some good fortune to be that successful, even if you’re great. The Cardinals could win ten fewer games in 2016 and still be competitive. If they’re able to re-sign Heyward, or compensate for his departure with additions elsewhere, they should be right in the thick of the NL Central race yet again.

Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

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After undergoing a fairly extensive tear-down last winter, the Braves will look to begin rebuilding toward a return to contention in 2017, when they are set to open a new park.

Guaranteed Contracts

*Indians will pay $10MM of the collective obligations to Swisher and Bourn in 2016

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

  • None

Free Agents

Things got ugly in the second half for the club, which all but collapsed down the stretch. In addition to the sales of a few last short-term veterans, the Braves’ summer featured a bad contract swap of Chris Johnson for Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn and — more importantly — the acquisition of Hector Olivera in a deal that sent lefty Alex Wood and prospect Jose Peraza to the Dodgers (among other pieces changing hands). That made for a less-than-ideal 2015 product, but that wasn’t really the point.

We may have been given a hint at the Braves’ endgame when the club parted with the controllable Wood for an unproven, somewhat older player in Olivera. Having spent the winter accumulating as many upper-level young arms as it could via trade, Atlanta gave one up for the chance at five fairly cheap years of Olivera. That move suggests that Atlanta already sees a light at the end of the tunnel of its quick rebuild. After all, Wood certainly could’ve brought back youthful prospects instead.

With a newly resurgent farm system and at least the nucleus of a core in place, the Braves are probably ready to begin adding at the major league level. But having parted with so much MLB-level talent in the last year or so, it’s unlikely that the organization really expects contention in 2016. Instead, the focus will be on 2017 and beyond.

So, what might the club look to do this winter under the leadership of newly-promoted GM John Coppolella and president of baseball operations John Hart? Let’s start with the possibility of further swaps, as it’s hard to rule anything out after Atlanta was willing to part with its long-term control over Evan Gattis and Craig Kimbrel last offseason.

It would take something awfully compelling for the Braves to consider moving Freddie Freeman or Andrelton Simmons, the pair of young infielders who figure to bridge the team’s most recent contender to its (hopeful) future outfit. Frankly, the possibility seems too remote to seriously consider as something that’s on the table.

Righty Julio Teheran, though, has generated more chatter. He’s taken a value hit after an uninspiring 2015, but he’s cheap, young (still 24), and durable (607 1/3 innings since the start of 2013). It’s hard to know how interested Atlanta is in parting with him, but the ask would surely be high in spite of his difficulties.

After all, while the Braves have compiled an impressive volume of young arms, few have established themselves in the big leagues. It would be risky to move on from Teheran, especially after having already sent out Wood. Shelby Miller had a strong season and looks like a great get from the Jason Heyward/Jordan Walden deal. (An extension with Miller could be pursued, at least to buy up his arb-eligible seasons.) The other key piece in that swap, Tyrell Jenkins, is one of several younger arms who’ll look to crack (or stay in) the big league staff in the coming years. Matt Wisler, Mike Foltynewicz, and Manny Banuelos are also recent trade additions in that general mold, and top prospect Lucas Sims is coming up behind that group. Further off are interesting names like Touki Toussaint, Kolby Allard, and Max Fried, among others.

Rounding out the 2016 rotation will involve a mix of depth pieces like Williams Perez and Ryan Weber and, perhaps, a veteran acquisition or two. The club has indicated it will tender a contract to lefty Mike Minor in hopes that he can reestablish himself after a tough run of injuries, but he’ll be hard to count on.

It’s possible to imagine Atlanta adding a mid or long-term arm on the free agent market, though it seems more likely that the club will look to bail out an undervalued asset than to beat the market for a top-end hurler. It wouldn’t be too hard to imagine this opportunistic front office pouncing if someone like Jeff Samardzija or Ian Kennedy find demand lacking, though I’d expect they will value the loss of a draft pick quite highly in weighing such decisions. While Atlanta’s #3 overall selection is protected, the team will probably like the idea of preserving an additional early draft slot (and the pool money that comes with it). Otherwise, there’s certainly some merit to the idea of utilizing the team’s unclaimed rotation spots to draw a pitcher (Doug Fister being the popular, but potentially too pricey, example) who could be looking for a one-year bounce-back deal. And Atlanta should be a popular destination for minor league free agents seeking a chance to prove themselves in the spring.

There’s even more uncertainty in the bullpen, where Arodys Vizcaino reemerged to have a nice year and take over as the closer. After him, though, the team’s most-used and most effective pen arms were traded (Jim Johnson, Luis Avilan) or hurt (Jason Grilli). The team still controls Grilli for two more years (the second via option) and could put him back in the ninth when he returns from injury, both to boost his trade stock and to tamp down Vizcaino’s arb platform. Rule 5 pick Daniel Winkler will need a roster spot to open the year in order for the team to earn his permanent rights, while another Rule 5 selection — Andrew McKirahan — could provide a left-handed option. Unfortunately, southpaw Paco Rodriguez — who was acquired from the Dodgers — is going to be out for the year after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but Chris Withrow — another Los Angeles import (separate trade) — could be ready and provides some interest. Veteran Peter Moylan could be brought back, and the club can also get some frames out of Brandon Cunniff, who logged the most relief innings last year of any returning pitcher in the organization.

There are a number of other names that could be in the mix, but none seem particularly worth mentioning. Atlanta took advantage of the fact that it had late-inning opportunities to offer last year when it signed Grilli and Johnson, and it could do so again. The club will also just be looking to get innings wherever it can. Last year’s roster ultimately included a veritable who’s who of once-quality pitchers who were looking for big league chances. But there’s also quite a realistic scenario where the Braves make a real investment in a reliever or two via free agency, as the team’s front office has hinted in recent weeks.

Moving back to the position player side of the equation, the infield seems largely set — potentially. Simmons, Freeman, and Olivera will take three spots. Third base prospect Rio Ruiz, who didn’t exactly master Double-A but spent the year there at 21 years of age, could eventually push Olivera off of the hot corner. That would open new questions and new possibilities, but there are some more immediate issues to be addressed.

Jace Peterson probably warrants another audition at second, though he’ll need to improve on a .239/.314/.335 batting effort. It’s possible — perhaps likely — that the team will look to supplement him with a veteran. The team signed Alberto Callaspo and Kelly Johnson as role-playing depth pieces last year, and figures to do something similar this winter. Top prospect Ozhaino Albies may ultimately be an appealing option up the middle, but he’s just 18 and is further off away than was the traded-away Jose Peraza.

Its certainly possible that the organization will consider adding a more significant infield piece this winter. That’s all the more true given reports that Olivera will spend some time in Puerto Rico playing the corner outfield. There are several free agents who might function as bridge players — Howie Kendrick and Daniel Murphy among them — and a variety of hypothetical trade candidates.

The club faces more questions behind the dish, where Christian Bethancourt remains an intriguing but frustrating player. He played only sporadically in the majors, endured a mid-season demotion (though he hit well at Triple-A), and drew questions about his mental approach. In a mid-season interview, Hart explained that he liked the young backstop’s tools, but felt that he was failing to grasp what it took to be a big league catcher. The issue was “not dedication,” said Hart. Instead: “It’s a level of preparedness you need for what [pitching coach] Roger [McDowell] expects and a championship organization expects, especially when dealing with young pitchers.” It’s possible that Atlanta will entertain change-of-scenery offers, though he seems more likely to get another chance. Last year’s primary backstop ended up being veteran A.J. Pierzynski. He remains a candidate to return, particularly after the club resisted the urge to trade him at the deadline, though he’ll test the market first. Otherwise, another elder statesman might be found. The Braves have been mentioned as a hypothetical suitor for Matt Wieters, who attended Georgia Tech, and he certainly could be the sort of (relative) buy-low that the organization would find intriguing. But it’s not yet clear whether Atlanta will be a leading contender for his services, especially since he’ll likely require a signing team to sacrifice a draft pick.

In the outfield, Nick Markakis — last year’s surprise free agent splurge — will handle right. Cameron Maybin figures to see the bulk of the action in center — barring a trade, at least. He was a nice comeback surprise after being included as part of the salary balancing in the Craig Kimbrel deal. Though his production tailed off late, he ended up with a .267/.327/.370 batting line to go with 23 steals and ten home runs. On the other hand, defensive metrics hated his glovework despite historical success.

While there would have to be interest if an appealing offer came in, the club is probably best off sticking with Maybin for the time being. He isn’t too expensive, his option conveys a bit of upside, and he could turn into an even more valuable mid-season trade chip. Maybin is likely just keeping the seat warm for Mallex Smith, who earned a mid-season promotion to Triple-A in his age-22 campaign. He still needs to conquer that level, and is far from a surefire prospect, but a summer promotion could be in order if he does and if there’s a need at the major league level.

Of course, the Braves do have another option in center: the veteran Bourn, who came over in the aforementioned trade along with Swisher. Bourn could help bridge the gap as well. Neither of those players produced last year, and may not last the year if they falter. (Both have options for 2017 that vest at 550 plate appearances, and it’s hard to imagine a scenario where that is allowed to take place.) But they’ll do for the meanwhile, and the organization has another fourth outfield type on hand in Adonis Garcia (though he’s not a good bet to repeat his production).

Given that array of outfield options, it’s easy to dream on the team wading into the free agent market. It would be foolish to rule out such an effort, though it’d also be rather shocking to see any nine-figure deals handed out. As with the rotation, it’s possible to imagine the Braves seeing what the market will yield. That could come in the form of a one-year, bounceback signing or a multi-year pact with a mid-level free agent who falls through the cracks.

Entering the winter, there’s an argument to be made that Atlanta should be increasingly aggressive in free agency (after having already shown just that trait on the trade market). After all, if the team hopes to be prepared for legitimate contention in 2017, this robust free agent market might present the right moment to strike.

Having demonstrated a willingness to spend on the mid-tier market last year, in signing Markakis, players his price range certainly seem in play. Costlier additions, though, may not be forthcoming. There’s some open current and future payroll, but not a lot: the club has just under $75MM in commitments for 2016 before accounting for arbitration, and that number drops into the $50MM to $60MM range over the four seasons to follow. Even with the promise of new stadium and TV revenue, it would be dangerous to tie up too much future payroll for an organization that has started a season with a payroll over $100MM only once (2014).

All told, the offseason promises more of the same creativity out of Atlanta, albeit with a nearer-term focus. And we can’t discount the possibility of a big surprise out of this creative front office duo.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs’ primary offseason goal is to add an impact starting pitcher.  They will also address center field, consider trades for surplus position players, and explore an extension for Jake Arrieta.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jon Lester, SP: $125MM through 2020; mutual option for 2021
  • Starlin Castro, 2B/SS: $38MM through 2019; club option for 2020
  • Anthony Rizzo, 1B: $32MM through 2019; club options for 2020 and 2021
  • Miguel Montero, C: $28MM through 2017
  • Jorge Soler, RF: $18MM through 2020; may opt into arbitration after 2017
  • Jason Hammel, SP: $11MM through 2016; club option for 2017 that may become void based on ’16 performance
  • David Ross, C: $2.25MM through 2016

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

  • None

Free Agents

MLB: NLDS-Chicago Cubs at St. Louis CardinalsExpectations have been raised for the 2016 Cubs, after the club reached the NLCS for the first time in 12 years.  The team’s position player core has the potential to be in place for at least five more years.  Jorge Soler is under team control through 2020, while Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, and Javier Baez are under control through 2021.  At 26 years old, Rizzo is the elder statesman of the group.  Bryant, Russell, Schwarber, and Baez are years from arbitration, and Soler ($3MM) and Rizzo ($5MM) are also very cheap.  Theo Epstein and company have assembled something special and have lined the players up for sustained success.

Bryant’s rookie season defense suggests he’ll remain mostly at third base next year, although manager Joe Maddon dabbled with him at each outfield position and may continue to do so.  Rizzo is locked in at first base.  The veteran tandem of Montero and Ross will return at catcher.

The Cubs have a middle infield surplus.  Russell will remain the starting shortstop, so the question is what to do with Baez and Castro.  Both players were acquired under the Jim Hendry front office, though Epstein’s group brokered the extension with Castro in the summer of 2012.  Castro’s 2015 season was near replacement level, and he lost the starting shortstop job to Russell in August.  Partially because of an injury to Soler that forced Chris Coghlan back to the outfield, Castro became the starting second baseman in September and had a blistering month.  He continued in that role throughout the playoffs.

Castro won’t turn 26 until March, and he’s an enigma.  He tallied 529 hits from age 20-22, joining Alex Rodriguez as the only middle infielders to accomplish that feat in baseball history.  Since then he’s had replacement level seasons in 2013 and ’15, sandwiching a solid 2014.  The Cubs prefer Russell and Baez over Castro as defensive shortstops, so it’s unclear whether another team would install Castro at short.  He did show pretty well at second base late in the year.

If Castro became a free agent right now and demanded a four-year deal with a club option, I think he could get $38MM or a bit more.  So perhaps the Cubs could move him without eating salary, though they wouldn’t get a player back with much surplus value.  The Mets, Padres, White Sox, and Yankees could be potential trade partners for the Cubs, who would presumably look to add starting pitching.  Most of those teams have pitching depth, and the Cubs could look to add to their bullpen as well.

Baez, who turns 23 in December and comes with six years of control, is also a trade candidate.  He was able to cut his strikeout rate a bit in Triple-A this year, while dealing with the tragic passing of his sister as well as a broken finger.  Baez’s star potential gives him much more trade value than Castro, and it would be risky for the Cubs to move him.  The flip side of that is that making him available opens the door to controllable upper-tier arms like Carlos Carrasco and Tyson Ross, pitchers the Cubs pursued in July.  All in all, Castro is more likely to be dealt than Baez this winter, yet there is a reasonable chance the club enters the season with both and delays the trade decision.  Baez could serve as the team’s backup infielder to start the season.

Schwarber’s bat is well ahead of his glove.  He joined the Cubs in mid-June and clubbed 21 home runs in 304 plate appearances, including his postseason onslaught.  The plan remains the same for 2016: bring him along as a catcher when possible, while keeping his bat in the lineup as the left fielder.  Trading Schwarber at this point in his career would be an extremely bold move that I don’t anticipate the Cubs making.  Trading Chris Coghlan is a safer alternative.  He and Schwarber both bat left-handed, so they can’t form a left field platoon.  Coghlan remains affordable in his final year of team control, and he hit .264/.355/.476 against right-handed pitching this year.  I’m reminded of Seth Smith, who was traded to the Padres for Luke Gregerson two years ago.  The Angels, Astros, Giants, Orioles, Padres, Royals, and White Sox could be potential trade partners for Coghlan.

Though he’s cut from the same cloth as Baez, the Cubs could consider trading Soler for controllable pitching.  Soler posted a replacement level rookie season, with poor defense and a 30% strikeout rate.  His 112 total games played marked a pro career high.  Still, Soler flashed All-Star potential in the playoffs.  Like Baez, the safe move here is to retain Soler and see what he becomes.

With Schwarber and Soler penciled in at the outfield corners, center field is the Cubs’ clearest position of need.  Coming off the healthiest season of his career, Dexter Fowler is due a qualifying offer and perhaps a four-year contract in the $60MM range.  While the Cubs have the capacity to sign him, they may acknowledge that a four-year deal wouldn’t provide good value.  If Denard Span does not receive a qualifying offer and the Cubs aren’t scared off by his September hip surgery, he could be a cheaper replacement on a shorter term.  The Cubs have 2012 first-rounder Albert Almora working his way up the minor leagues, so a shorter-term investment makes sense.  Bringing Austin Jackson back is an option, or the Cubs could look into a trade for the Yankees’ Brett Gardner.  Epstein has named outfield defense as an area of improvement, which could mean exploring trades for players like Leonys Martin or Juan Lagares.

Despite some decisions to be made on the position player side, the Cubs’ offseason focus will be on their rotation.   The group is currently fronted by Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester.  After the season, Epstein spoke of his desire to add “impact pitching,” as well as big league depth.  He seems open to the “necessary evil” of free agency, and this year’s class is stacked with David Price, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto, and Jordan Zimmermann.  Jeff Samardzija could also be considered a potential impact arm.  Then there’s John Lackey, who Epstein signed as Red Sox GM six years ago. Greinke, Zimmermann, Samardzija, and Lackey would likely require the Cubs to forfeit their first-round draft pick.  The Cubs could make trade attempts for Carrasco, Ross, Jose Quintana, Sonny Gray, Matt Harvey, or Stephen Strasburg, though some of them will be off-limits and they come with varying amounts of team control.  In the end, expect the Cubs to come away with someone they’re comfortable starting in the first three games of a playoff series.

Hammel and Hendricks can capably fill out the back of the Cubs’ rotation.  Hendricks, 26 in December, won’t reach arbitration until after the 2017 season, and the Cubs could include him as part of a trade for a better pitcher like Ross.  Epstein’s mention of depth is important, as the club avoided major injuries in 2015.  They need to safeguard against possible injuries in 2016, especially with ace Jake Arrieta reaching 248 2/3 frames.  That means starting the year with at least six capable options.  Travis Wood could be stretched out if needed, but the Cubs should probably add two starters.

The Cubs assembled an interesting collection of relievers by the time the playoffs started, with a surprisingly heavy reliance on failed starters Wood, Trevor Cahill, and Clayton Richard along with Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop, and Justin Grimm.  Wood’s past as a starter will drive his arbitration price up to more than you’d like to pay, but he posted a 2.95 ERA and 11.0 K/9 in regular season relief and should be retained.  It’s unclear whether Cahill, 28 in March, will embrace a relief role as a free agent.  He was very good in that role for 22 1/3 innings after joining the Cubs, and the team should find a way to bring him back.

Perhaps in the new year, the Cubs will explore an extension for Arrieta.  A big factor is who they are able to acquire – if it’s David Price on a seven-year deal, the Cubs would seem unlikely to make Arrieta their third long-term $25MM+ pitcher.  If it’s two years of Tyson Ross, maybe there’s room for a huge deal for Arrieta.  We project Arrieta to make a big leap to a $10.6MM salary in arbitration for 2016, and then he’d be due another raise for 2017.  Signing him now could allow the Cubs to temper those two arbitration salaries, but it would be a question of how many years the pitcher would need on top.  Arrieta’s projected free agency begins with his age 32 season, and Scott Boras is his agent.  Zack Greinke’s new deal will also begin with his age 32 season.  Whatever Greinke gets for his free agent years, Boras will expect the same.  That could be $150MM over five years, $160MM over six, or something else, but we should know by January.  The Cubs have to ask the hard question of whether giving Arrieta ace money through age 36 or 37 is prudent, when they already control his age 30 and 31 seasons.

If the Cubs are already looking at $185MM or so over seven years to lock Arrieta up in January 2016, how much higher would the price be in January 2017?  Can the Cubs wait this year out to see how Arrieta’s arm holds up after all the added innings, or will the window to extend him be mostly closed by that point?  If a long-term deal can’t be reached, the Cubs could at least gain cost certainty by signing Arrieta to a two-year deal.

In 2015, Joe Maddon’s Cubs got close enough to taste their first World Series in 70 years before running into the Mets buzzsaw in the NLCS.  The Cubs were playing with house money with a lot of fans this year, as many perceived this club to be a year early.  Now, the team will hike ticket prices and add to the payroll to assemble a playoff-caliber rotation to complement their exciting young position players.

Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

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After one of the most frenetic offseasons in recent history, the Padres entered the 2015 season with elevated expectations and a wildly different roster than the one inherited by first-year GM A.J. Preller. Unfortunately for the team, Preller’s high-profile acquisitions didn’t yield a postseason run or even a winning record.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Matt Kemp, OF: $72MM through 2019 (Dodgers also owe Kemp $14MM through 2019)
  • James Shields, RHP: $65MM through 2018 (including buyout of 2019 option; Shields can opt out after 2016)
  • Jedd Gyorko, 2B/3B/SS: $33MM through 2019 (including buyout of 2020 option)
  • Melvin Upton, OF: $31.9MM through 2017
  • Craig Kimbrel, RHP: $25MM through 2017 (including buyout of 2018 option)
  • Alexi Amarista, 2B/SS/3B/OF: $1.3MM through 2016

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR)

Free Agents

Contract Options

  • Joaquin Benoit, RHP: $8MM club option with $1.5MM buyout
  • Clint Barmes, SS: $2MM club option with $200K buyout
  • Cory Luebke, LHP: $7.5MM club option with $1.75MM buyout

The Padres have crossed off the first item on their to-do list, and it probably shouldn’t come as a surprise that it was an out-of-the-box move. San Diego has tabbed 38-year-old Diamondbacks third base coach Andy Green as their new manager. While he comes with some notable minor league experience, this will be Green’s first taste of manging in the Majors.

As far as the contractual options facing the Padres, Cory Luebke’s is an easy call to decline, as the lefty hasn’t thrown a pitch since 2012 due to a pair of Tommy John surgeries. Clint Barmes’ option is cheap, but the Padres probably consider him redundant with Alexi Amarista projected to have a bench spot. Joaquin Benoit’s option is the toughest call. Metrics like FIP call for big regression, but he’s been able to routinely outperform them by sustaining abnormal BABIP marks and strand rates. While his walk and strikeout rates have each gone in the wrong direction, his velocity and swinging strike rate look good. This boils down to a one-year, $6.5MM decision on Benoit (he has a $1.5MM buyout). That seems reasonable, and even if the Padres don’t want him at that price, they could trade him. Picking up the option and paying $1.5MM to improve the return in a trade is a better outcome than simply buying him out.

Perhaps the biggest roadblock that option presents is that it would bring the 2016 payroll higher than their Opening Day mark from 2015, and there’s quite a bit of work to do around the diamond. An elevated payroll was always the expectation, as they received $18MM in 2015 salary relief in the Matt Kemp trade and also backloaded James Shields’ contract, but the baseball ops staff probably hoped there’d be less needs around the roster. Instead, they’ve already committed $71.9MM to the 2016 payroll, plus a projected $24.4MM for Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner, Yonder Alonso, Derek Norris and Will Middlebrooks in arbitration, and then the potential Benoit option and league-minimum salaries needed to fill out the roster.

That crowded payroll is one reason that the Padres were said to be open to moving some of their more established contributors at the non-waiver trade deadline, though that never came to fruition. Many of those talks will be revisited this winter. In an odd way, the Padres’ 2015-16 offseason will be defined perhaps more so by who they subtract from the organization than by who they add. It’s unclear how much flexibility they’ll have for roster additions without eliminating some 2016 payroll concerns.

Shields, Craig Kimbrel and Melvin Upton represent the three largest salaries that San Diego could shop, but nearly every position on the diamond and every slot in the rotation could be subject to trade talks. That sets up a fascinating offseason but also makes the already-difficult task of attempting to outline a team’s winter nearly impossible.

Shields is a particularly tough sell, as he was more good than great in his first first year with Padres. Though his strikeout rate soared, so too did his homer-to-flyball rate, resulting in an elevated ERA and FIP. If another club is convinced the HR/FB spike is a fluke, Shields is more appealing, but $21MM annually is steep. He isn’t the quintessential “albatross” contract — he’s still a useful starter — but it’s fair to say he qualifies as the type of player that’s often moved in swaps of “bad” contracts.

One oft-floated suggestion was a swap of Pablo Sandoval with the Red Sox, though I don’t see the merit in that for San Diego unless Boston sweetens the deal with young talent. Sandoval is owed more money and was one of the game’s worst all-around performers in 2015. The Padres needn’t be that desperate to move Shields, who was useful in 2015.

Upton — Melvin, that is — possesses an undesirable contract of his own, although the older of the two Uptons did quietly enjoy a bounceback year in 2015. He didn’t reach his peak Tampa Bay production levels, but Upton slashed .259/.327/.429 and made solid contributions on the basepaths and defense. The $31.9MM he’s owed lines up reasonably well with the money remaining on the contracts of Ricky Nolasco, Ubaldo Jimenez and Matt Garza, though I’m not sure any of those pitchers’ teams would benefit from making such a deal. More realistic is that Upton will remain under contract as an overpriced fourth outfielder/platoon partner for defensive standout Travis Jankowski, which appears to be at least somewhat of a consideration.

The other significant salary the Padres could try to move is that of Kimbrel, but he, unlike Shields and Upton, would be in high demand. The Yankees, Astros, Red Sox, Nationals and Cubs all stand out as plausible trade partners, and each of those clubs possesses plenty of young talent. If he’s to trade Kimbrel, Preller would have to decide if the goal is to add Major League talent to help the 2016 club or package Kimbrel with a less desirable contract (i.e. Shields, Upton) to clear salary. Trading him for prospects doesn’t align with the Padres’ recent tactics.

If the Padres are able to free up some payroll, shortstop will be their biggest priority. Ian Desmond tops the free agent market, but despite a down season, he strikes me as likely to command, at minimum, a four-year deal (five is also possible). He’s already been connected to the Padres, but an expensive free-agent miss wouldn’t look good for the front office coming off a disappointing 2015 season, and the Friars have multiple needs. If Preller is again to turn to the trade market, a highly speculative list of partners includes the Cubs (Javier Baez, Starlin Castro), Mariners (Ketel Marte, Brad Miller, Chris Taylor), Astros (Jed Lowrie), Rays (Nick Franklin), Red Sox (Deven Marrero) and possibly Twins (Eduardo Escobar, Eduardo Nunez, Jorge Polanco).

There are more in-house options, at least, in the rest of the infield. Jedd Gyorko filled in at short late in the 2015 season, but he shouldn’t be asked to play there again for defensive reasons. Gyorko can handle both second base and third base, as can the younger Cory Spangenberg. The former is a righty, the latter swings from the left side, and the club also has the switch-hitting Yangervis Solarte (and disappointing Will Middlebrooks) available at the hot corner. Given the needs elsewhere, it’s possible to imagine Preller relying on this group again in 2016, though a free agent target wouldn’t be out of the question. Ben Zobrist, as we at MLBTR find ourselves saying frequently in these Offseason Outlooks, certainly makes some sense given his versatility, though his age makes him particularly risky for San Diego, given the current uncertainty permeating their roster.

The Padres quickly abandoned the idea of Wil Myers in center field and moved him to first base, but that now presents its own issues. With both Myers and Yonder Alonso figuring to be healthy in 2016, the Padres have two players for that first base spot. The best option for Myers is probably to shift to left field in place of the departing Justin Upton. That creates somewhat of a logjam, though, as top prospect Hunter Renfroe is a corner outfielder, as is former Top 100 prospect Rymer Liriano. Both are nearly MLB-ready, though Preller hasn’t shown an aversion to trading prospects.

Alonso could be a desirable trade piece for many teams — Milwaukee, Baltimore (if Chris Davis leaves), Pittsburgh, to name a few — but he’s also one of the precious few lefty bats the Padres have. And while he doesn’t hit for power, his overall offensive contributions this year were positive. There’s a case to be made that San Diego should move Alonso, go for broke, and make a run at Davis to inject some power into the lineup, but that’s a long shot.

If Alonso is moved, a left-field decision arises: trust Renfroe/Liriano or seek an outside addition. Colby Rasmus would give the Padres a much-needed left-handed bat, as would Gerardo Parra. If Preller and L.A. counterpart Andrew Friedman want to connect for another significant swap, the Dodgers have Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier, who could each be moved for a bad contract. The player the Padres received from the Dodgers last winter, Matt Kemp, seems like he’ll definitively be stationed in right field, so there appears to be at least one certain spot in the lineup.

Center field, again, comes with question marks. Jankowski is a gifted defender but doesn’t project to hit much. He could be a fine fourth outfielder, but he’s probably miscast as a starter. Jankowski and Upton could platoon here, but free agents Dexter Fowler and Denard Span or a trade candidate like Jackie Bradley would help to balance out the lineup and provide better offense. Span, in particular, is an intriguing buy-low candidate, as his injury could suppress his value and make him a relative bargain. Although, that also enhances the risk of signing him. If handedness isn’t a concern, Marcell Ozuna makes sense.

Like nearly every other position on the diamond, the Padres have some trade options behind the plate. Derek Norris is slated to make $3.4MM, so moving him could free up a bit of money, and Austin Hedges represents an MLB-ready replacement. However, the team could flip the defensively gifted and well-regarded Hedges in a trade to fill another hole. Norris had his worst season at the plate in 2015, so they could be selling low, though on the other hand his throwing improved quite a bit. On a thin catching market, he’d draw interest, and Hedges is superior defensively.

The rotation offers a bit more certainty, but not much. Shields, Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner form a solid 1-2-3 atop the rotation, and young righty Colin Rea is a candidate for the back of the starting unit along with righty Odrisamer Despaigne and lefty Robbie Erlin. Ian Kennedy is set to depart as a free agent and should net the team a compensatory draft pick — I see little reason for him to accept a qualifying offer, as his durability and steady results should net him a more lucrative multi-year deal — though the team could look to retain him.

However, as previously mentioned, Shields is a definite trade candidate this winter, and the Padres fielded offers on both Ross and Cashner prior to the trade deadline. Cashner is only controlled through 2016, so it makes sense that he, in particular, could resurface in trade talks. The Cubs and Red Sox each showed interest in Ross, and the righty is the type of borderline-dominant arm that either team could pursue to bolster its rotation for at least two years, if not more via an extension. Names like Kyle Hendricks or Henry Owens could be part of a Ross trade (though not necessarily headliners), thereby giving San Diego an immediate, albeit lesser replacement. Cashner wouldn’t fetch as large of a haul, but he could bring back a big-league piece to help in a different area.

The Padres need to add at least one arm to the mix, possibly two if they move one of the current three rotation locks and don’t receive an immediate replacement in return. A lefty would help give opponents a bit of a different look, though adding quality innings should be an emphasis over pitcher handedness. One inexpensive possibility would be to try Brandon Maurer in the rotation again. The former Mariners prospect has blossomed into an excellent setup man but still deployed a three-pitch mix out of the ’pen in 2015. Obviously, an innings limit would have to be a consideration.

Moving Maurer to the rotation could create a larger hole in the bullpen, where the Padres are also set to lose the underrated Shawn Kelley and could also non-tender Rzepczynski. Kevin Quackenbush and Nick Vincent could rejoin Benoit and Kimbrel (if neither is traded). Lefty Frank Garces battled his control in both the Majors and minors after a dominant Double-A campaign in 2014, so at least one cheap lefty relief option would be a nice pickup.

No first-year GM has ever made a splash as immediate and dramatic as Preller in 2014-15. Because no one could have reasonably predicted that level of activity, the Padres dominated headlines for much of the offseason, right up until their acquisition of Kimbrel on the eve of Opening Day. San Diego again mystified the baseball world by taking the opposite course of action this summer, standing pat despite the fact that they weren’t within reasonable striking distance of a postseason berth. The expectation here is that the Padres will again be in for an exceptionally active offseason, so much so that their course of action could play a key role in a number of other clubs’ winter gameplans as well.

Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

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With several key players hitting the free agent market and areas of need all over the diamond, the Orioles’ roster could look significantly different come Opening Day.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Adam Jones, OF: $49MM through 2018
  • J.J. Hardy, SS: $28.5MM through 2017 (includes $2MM buyout of $14MM club option for 2018; option vests based on plate appearances)
  • Ubaldo Jimenez, SP: $26.5MM through 2017

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

The Orioles have one of the most distinguished free agent classes of any team, and yet even with all of these notables hitting the open market, Adam Jones sees it as an opportunity.  “It’s going to be exciting to see what goes on this offseason because I know when you have a lot of free agents that means you have a lot of money to spend,” Jones told the Baltimore Sun’s Dan Connolly in a late-season interview.  “And so, hopefully, I can influence some officials to spend a little bit of that money.”

Since Dan Duquette took over as executive VP of baseball operations in late 2011, the Orioles have indeed shown an increased willingness to spend, going from an $84MM Opening Day payroll in 2012 to just under the $119MM mark for last season’s opener.  A nice chunk of that increase has gone to Jones himself via his six-year, $85.5MM extension, which is still the largest contract in O’s franchise history.  The Orioles may well have to break that record in order to re-sign some of their own top free agents or add major talents to replace those departing stars, which also means overcoming a well-documented wariness to long-term free agent deals.

First, the good news for the Orioles and their fans.  Manny Machado was healthy and had a superstar year, Jones continued to produce, Jonathan Schoop broke out as an everyday second baseman, Ubaldo Jimenez had a solid bounce-back campaign and Zach Britton cemented himself as a reliable closer while headlining one of the game’s better bullpens last season.  Combine these with former fourth overall pick Kevin Gausman, who is now established as a full-time starter, and there are worse building blocks to have in place for a team looking to reload as an AL East contender.

The problem, however, is that these are also pretty much the only areas of relative certainty amidst a very unsettled Orioles roster.  It’s possible that the O’s will have openings at first base (Chris Davis), setup man (Darren O’Day), right field (Gerardo Parra), catcher (Matt Wieters) and at the front of the rotation (Wei-Yin Chen).

Let’s begin with the rotation, as it stands out as an area of need even if Chen returns  — a seemingly unlikely scenario, according to several pundits.  Beyond Jimenez and Gausman, Chris Tillman and Miguel Gonzalez are likely to be back despite rough seasons that saw their ERAs catch up to their generally unimpressive career advanced metrics.  It was poor timing for the arb-eligible pitchers, who failed to maximize their earning power. Assuming the Orioles bring them back, a total of $11.1MM in combined arbitration earnings is a very good price for two innings-eaters (though obviously Baltimore hopes the two can deliver more than just innings next year).  If not, Tillman and Gonzalez could both potentially be non-tender candidates come next winter as their price tags keep rising.

A more aggressive move would be for the Orioles to non-tender Gonzalez (the less established of the two) this winter and replace him with one of Tyler Wilson or Mike Wright.  This frees up more money to pursue a true top-of-the-rotation starter, and there’s no shortage of big-name aces on the market this winter.  Baltimore could also tender Tillman and Gonzalez and then trade one or both to open a rotation spot, though they’d certainly be selling low on either pitcher.

Of course, the O’s have been particularly hesitant to spend big on pitching.  Jimenez’s four-year, $50MM deal is the largest contract the team has ever given to a pitcher, and that’s probably one Duquette would like to have back given Jimenez’s up-and-down performance through two seasons.  It’s probably safe to assume that David Price and Zack Greinke are out of Baltimore’s price range.  Jordan Zimmermann or Johnny Cueto would command a deal worth at least twice Jimenez’s price tag, and any of the names in the second and third tiers of the free agent pitching market (Chen himself, Mike Leake, Jeff Samardzija, Yovani Gallardo, Ian Kennedy) are all good bets to exceed Jimenez’s number.

Could the Orioles deal for an ace?  They may not have the trade chips available given their thin farm system, which could be even more lacking given Dylan Bundy’s ongoing shoulder problems.  The former top prospect is out of options, so while he could still emerge as a secret weapon if healthy, he’ll have only a short window in the Arizona Fall League and Spring Training to prove he’s fit.

Expect the O’s to look at Scott Kazmir, Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ or any other quality starters who posted Chen-like numbers in 2015 but could be signed on shorter-term deals than the four or even five years that Chen could command.  Simply replacing Chen, of course, doesn’t solve Baltimore’s overall pitching issues.  Either owner Peter Angelos shows a greater willingness to spend on free agent arms or else the Orioles will again be relying on a lot of things to go right for their incumbent starters.

The same question of spending also applies to Davis, who is projected by MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes to land a six-year, $144MM contract this offseason.  Unlike the free agent pitching market, this winter’s list of available first basemen isn’t star-studded, so there’s no easy way to make up Davis’ 47 home runs.  Someone like Adam Lind (if the Brewers either don’t pick up his option or look to trade him) could be at least a passable replacement; while Lind isn’t an everyday option since he can’t hit left-handed pitching, he could be platooned with prospect Christian Walker, a right-handed bat.  The Orioles could also look to trade for a similar left-handed first baseman like Ryan Howard or Adam LaRoche, or sign a potential non-tender candidate such as Pedro Alvarez or Logan Morrison. The soon-to-be-posted Byung-ho Park could also be a consideration. After all, Baltimore has dabbled in the Korean market in recent years (e.g., Suk-min Yoon) and successfully nabbed Chen from Taiwan.

Filling that gap at first base would open the door for the Orioles to replace Davis’ power with a big corner outfield bat, though names like Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, Jason Heyward would again require huge financial commitments.  Baltimore’s only current corner outfield options are David Lough, Nolan Reimold and Junior Lake, so it’s probably no surprise that the team is interested in bringing Parra back to bolster either left or right field.

In late August, MLBTR’s Jeff Todd projected that Parra could earn a 3-4 year deal with an average annual value in the $10-$15MM range, though that was before Parra suffered through a miserable September and finished with only a .625 OPS in his 238 PA as an Oriole.  Even if Parra’s poor finish lowered his price into the three-year/$24MM range, in my opinion Parra may not be worth such a commitment and the O’s could instead use that money on a more consistent free agent bat.

Given the question marks in the corner outfield spots and at first base, re-signing Steve Pearce could be a sneaky-important move for the Orioles given his versatility.  Pearce battled some injuries last season and regressed after his big 2014 campaign, though he still hit 15 homers in 325 PA.  While Pearce’s contract value is somewhat hard to predict, his price tag shouldn’t be all that big, unless the Orioles lose him to a team that can offer more regular playing time than the part-time role he’d likely receive in Baltimore.

Beyond the headline names on the free agent outfield market, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Orioles made runs at signing Ben Zobrist or Colby Rasmus, both of whom drew interest from Baltimore last winter.  Since the O’s prefer shorter-term free agent deals in general, both could be good fits — Rasmus has said he may not want to play longer than a few more seasons, while Zobrist is entering his age-35 season and may not command too lengthy a contract.  (Though a four-year deal isn’t out of the question for Zobrist since his versatility is expected to draw a large amount of interest in his services.)

As mentioned, the Orioles had a pretty strong bullpen last season.  While O’Day’s great numbers were a big part of that success, Baltimore could withstand his departure by elevating someone like Brad Brach to the setup role.  The O’s could also explore a pretty strong setup reliever market, looking at the likes of Mark Lowe, Tony Sipp or Shawn Kelley to replace O’Day (who may earn the largest contract of any relief pitcher this offseason), or perhaps go with lower-cost options.

The O’s also have a replacement for Wieters in the form of Caleb Joseph, who only hit .234/.299/.394 with 11 homers over 355 PA last year but is a solid defender and pitch-framer.  There’s been speculation that Wieters might not even be issued a qualifying offer by the Orioles in the wake of his disappointing 2015 season, as the catcher struggled both offensively and defensively after returning from Tommy John surgery.

I tend to believe that Wieters would indeed reject a QO if offered.  Firstly, it would be stunning if the first player to accept a qualifying offer was a Scott Boras client given how the agent has so harshly criticized the QO concept.  Secondly, between the thin catching market and Wieters’ star pedigree, he’s sure to find a multi-year deal even in the wake of a tough season.  Baltimore can therefore be pretty confident in issuing Wieters a qualifying offer and at least ensuring themselves a compensatory draft pick if he signs elsewhere.

The Orioles have just under $42MM committed to three players (Jones, Jimenez, J.J. Hardy) for 2016 and MLBTR projects roughly $34.9MM for their 11 arbitration-eligible players, assuming everyone is tendered a contract.  Pre-arb players in regular roles (i.e. Schoop, Gausman, Joseph) will take up a few more roster spots at minimum salaries.  If the 2016 payroll stays in the $119MM range, that leaves Duquette with approximately $42MM to work with this winter.

That’s certainly enough room to add at least one big salary into the mix.  Since Angelos has specifically gone on record as saying the team will try to re-sign Davis, I would guess that if the Orioles are going to break the bank on a signing, it will be for the slugging first baseman since that kind of power is hard to find in today’s game.  The O’s have been more willing to spend on position players (Jones, Hardy, Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis) than on pitchers, so it makes sense that they’d try harder to retain a familiar big bat than they would a free agent ace.

Jones, Jimenez and Hardy are also the only players signed beyond 2016, so the Orioles have space on the books for another long-term commitment.  It seems likely, however, that the O’s will look to the future in another sense by considering extensions for Schoop and possibly Machado, though Duquette has said that a Machado extension isn’t a major priority for this offseason.

This certainly promises to be, by far, the Orioles’ busiest winter under Duquette, as his tenure has been marked more by canny under-the-radar acquisitions  — i.e. Chen, Gonzalez or Pearce — than by flashy trades or free agent signings.  Even the one-year, $8MM signing of Nelson Cruz in February 2014 (Duquette’s most successful free agent deal) was rather a unique circumstance given how Cruz’s market was chilled by a PED suspension and the qualifying offer.

Hardy was the only one of Baltimore’s free agents to re-sign last winter, as the Orioles lost Cruz, Markakis and Andrew Miller to free agency.  The O’s have internal replacements for a few of this winter’s free agents, but another mass exodus would leave the team with simply too many holes to fill.  Duquette will have to be creative and Angelos will have to be willing to go beyond his contractual comfort zone in order to get the Orioles back into playoff contention.  If not…well, if last winter’s free agent 0-fer allegedly led to tension between Duquette and manager Buck Showalter, a repeat performance could result in some front office changes.

Offseason Outlook: Oakland Athletics

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After an ugly 2015 season, the Athletics have plenty of flexibility, but also face plenty of uncertainty.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Billy Butler, DH: $20MM through 2017
  • Coco Crisp, OF: $11.75MM through 2016 (plus 2017 club/vesting option)
  • Sean Doolittle, P: $9MM through 2018 (plus 2019 and 2020 club options)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

After a season in which almost nothing went right, the Athletics will attempt to get back on track in 2016. How their ever-creative front office will accomplish that, though, is anyone’s guess. Now that they’ve lost a number of high-profile players (Josh Donaldson, Jon Lester, Jeff Samardzija, Scott Kazmir, Brandon Moss, Derek Norris, Jed Lowrie, Jason Hammel, Luke Gregerson) from their 2014 playoff run and still others (Ben Zobrist, Tyler Clippard) once their 2015 season fell apart, it seems wise to begin with an assessment of what, exactly, they still have.

Ace Sonny Gray still has a year remaining before he’s eligible for arbitration, and he looks like one of the game’s most potent young starters after a terrific 2015. The team also has several other starting pitchers (Jesse Chavez, Jesse Hahn, Chris Bassitt) who helped to one degree or another. Offensively, the A’s have a few young veterans who had decent seasons (like Josh Reddick, Stephen Vogt and Danny Valencia, with Billy Beane’s August claim of Valencia looking like a big win so far), and the team was also able to find playing time last year for a number of relative youngsters (Billy Burns, Marcus Semien, Josh Phegley, Mark Canha) who held their own and look like cheap future role players. The A’s lost 94 games last season, so it’s no surprise that they don’t exactly appear to be loaded with talent.

Of course, Donaldson, for example, once looked like little more than a cheap future role player too, and plenty of analysts have underestimated Oakland rosters barely flashier than the one the A’s have now. The 2015 A’s were also the victims of poor luck — they weren’t a good team, but they scored only 35 fewer runs than they allowed and might well have ended up with far more than 68 wins.

Still, this offseason is going to be a tough one for Beane and new GM David Forst. A series of questionable trades have left the Athletics with a limited talent base. In particular, their decision to deal Donaldson to the Blue Jays makes even less sense now than it did when it was consummated — the Athletics traded an MVP-type player with four years of control remaining and received only one good prospect (Franklin Barreto) plus a disappointing infielder (Brett Lawrie) and a couple low-wattage arms.

That the trade was a disaster for the Athletics is well known at this point, but I mention it here because it’s part of a pattern. Small-payroll teams need inexpensive stars like Donaldson. Other than Gray, the Athletics really don’t have any, and they don’t appear to have many players who have that potential, either. When they traded for Samardzija, they gave up Addison Russell, who already seems to be blossoming in Chicago. Then, when they dealt Samardzija themselves, they got Bassitt, Semien and Phegley, who look like good, helpful players, but not future stars. Their trade of Samardzija was, in isolation, a decent one, and it looks better after Samardzija had a subpar season in 2015, but the net result of the two deals is that it appears the A’s gave up an impact talent and didn’t receive one in return.

So now that potentially game-changing players like Donaldson and Russell are gone, how do the A’s build something new in their absence? For a 68-win team, the Athletics certainly have their fair share of decent players, and it’s easy to see any one of at least a dozen of them becoming useful contributors on a top-quality team. What they don’t seem to have is enough elite players to rally around, and it’s not clear where they’ll get them.

Many 68-win teams can upgrade simply by identifying positions where they have massive deficiencies and addressing those, but the A’s actually have fewer gaping holes than most. One priority, though, could be adding another corner outfielder or first baseman. Canha profiles decently as a semi-regular either in left field or at first base, and Vogt figures to pick up at bats at first base when he’s not catching, but the Athletics can use a bit of help. They’re unlikely to be top players for free agents, but they could find a lefty outfielder to upgrade on Sam Fuld — someone like Gerardo Parra or David Murphy might make sense, particularly with Jake Smolinski available to bat against lefties. Coco Crisp, a switch-hitter who’s under contract for next season, might be able to help in that regard, although he’ll play next season at age 36 and suffered through a miserable 2015 due to a lingering neck injury.

Beyond first base, the Athletics appear fairly set in the infield. With Lawrie and Valencia in the fold, the A’s can give Semien another shot at shortstop, although Beane seems open to using him at other positions at some point in the future. The A’s could add an infield backup via free agency, though, particularly if they decide to non-tender Eric Sogard.

The Athletics could also use an upgrade at DH; the three-year deal to which they signed Billy Butler was perplexing at the time, and it doesn’t make any more sense now. It seems more likely, though, that they’ll hope Butler improves in 2016, since he’ll still be just 30, and they owe him an additional $20MM. A trade involving another bad contract also might be a possibility.

Then there’s the rotation. Gray ought to be back, along with Chavez, Bassitt and Hahn, health permitting. Jarrod Parker, who hasn’t thrown a pitch in the big leagues since 2013, was back to throwing at the end of the season after spending most of it recovering from an elbow fracture. The 26-year-old Parker got off to a great start to his big-league career in 2012 and 2013, but there’s no telling what the Athletics can expect from him, if anything, after multiple arm injuries and two full years on the shelf. Another talented young starter, A.J. Griffin, is in a similar boat — he was making his way back from Tommy John surgery last June when he got shut down again, this time with a shoulder problem. Now he hasn’t appeared in the big leagues in two full years, either.

Beyond that, the Athletics’ best options right now are back-of-the-rotation types like Kendall Graveman, Aaron Brooks and Sean Nolin, plus Drew Pomeranz, who could conceivably move to starting full-time. (Sean Manaea, who they acquired in the Zobrist trade, could be in the rotation picture by midseason.) It’s safe to say, then, that they could add another starter this offseason without causing a logjam.

Given the Athletics’ extremely limited future commitments, they could easily sign a free agent starter, although it’s doubtful they would want to be on the hook for a contract that would still be on the books, say, three years from now. A creative short-term addition like Doug Fister, Mat Latos, Rich Hill, or old friends Trevor Cahill or Bartolo Colon might make sense.

Then again, all this speculation assumes the A’s will look to stay competitive next year without sacrificing their ability to compete in the future, but Beane often forgoes the obvious path. One off-the-grid possibility might be spending heavily on righty relievers in an attempt to improve by building a good bullpen around Sean Doolittle, Fernando Rodriguez and Pomeranz. Relievers would require shorter-term commitments than starters or position players, allowing the A’s to spend a bit while still keeping their payroll relatively clear in 2018 or 2019, when they might have a better core than they do now.

Beane has also alluded to the possibility that the team could extend Reddick, who is eligible for free agency following the 2016 season. Reddick was already a very good all-around player before cutting his strikeout rate in half over the past three seasons. The change came at the expense of some of his home-run power, but his newfound strike-zone judgment increases the possibility that he’ll continue to be productive in the near future, particularly since he’s still just 28.

Other than that, who knows? The only constant with the Athletics is change. Would it really be a shock if, after previously emerging as the high bidder for top international talents like Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Ynoa, the Athletics suddenly entered the bidding for Korean first baseman Byung-Ho Park? Would it be impossible for Beane to sense an inefficiency in the market and pounce on, say, a three-year deal for a bigger-name player at an unexpected position, given that most of the team’s current options are passable but unspectacular? Would it be a surprise if, after previously trading their top prospect (Daniel Robertson) for Ben Zobrist in an offseason in which they looked to be re-tooling, they dealt someone like Barreto for a big win-now upgrade? After emphatically denying he would trade Gray, would it be out of the question for Beane to deal him anyway, a year after an anonymous A’s official emphatically denied that the team would trade Donaldson? Could the A’s trade Vogt, say, or Chavez, or even Reddick? With Beane and Forst, there’s no telling.

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

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The Giants have money to spend on a pitching-heavy free agent market. But what else can they do to set up another even-year World Series run?

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

Free Agents

Jeremy Affeldt, Alejandro De Aza, Tim Hudson, Mike Leake, Tim Lincecum, Ryan Vogelsong

The 2015 Giants didn’t quite match the World Series run of their predecessors, but that grand finish in 2014 came from an outfit that won only 88 regular season games. This year’s unit took home 84 victories, and was slightly better by measures such as BaseRuns and Pythagorean win-loss.

Importantly, GM Bobby Evans and his staff were able to stay in contention even without having made any large financial commitments before the season. The Giants reportedly tried for, but lost out on, players like Pablo Sandoval, James Shields, and Jon Lester. Instead, the club added older, short-term options: Jake Peavy, Sergio Romo, Nori Aoki, Ryan Vogelsong, and Casey McGehee.

As a result of that relatively quiet offseason a year ago, the Giants now have ample future spending capacity to deploy this winter. The team has a fair amount of cash on the books already for next year (about $120MM, before arb) and 2017 (~$73MM, pre-arb), but little thereafter. And this is an organization that pushed its Opening Day payroll over $170MM last year.

As they begin to utilize that financial flexibility, the Giants will surely look first at the rotation. Beyond the excellent Madison Bumgarner and righties Jake Peavy and Matt Cain, the starting staff is unsettled. Chris Heston is still in the mix after an up-and-down rookie year, and the organization hopes it will be able to turn to some young arms (including Clayton Blackburn, Tyler Beede, Kyle Crick, Ty Blach, and Chris Stratton) in the near future. But that group of pitchers is in need of supplementation. Bringing back Tim Lincecum on a low-risk contract won’t be enough, though he and the solid Yusmeiro Petit could be useful as swingmen. Peavy and Cain have just one and two years, respectively, left on their deals. And it would probably be overly optimistic to expect those upper-minors pitchers all to work out — let alone to do so in the near term.

The Giants will find a free agent market loaded with starting pitching options. Mike Leake, who spent the last several months in San Francisco after a deadline deal, appears to be at the top of the team’s list. He’ll be expensive, though more because he’s young enough to command a lengthy commitment than due to his expected annual salary. If that match-up falls through, Japan’s Kenta Maeda might offer a similar cost and age proposition. Though San Francisco has not been one of the more notably active teams in acquiring MLB-ready talent from Asia, its location on the west coast makes it a plausible destination (at least in theory).

It’s not at all inconceivable, though, that the club could pursue an even higher-end arm, whether or not it gets Leake. Remember, the team reportedly was willing to pay Lester $168MM over seven years. David Price could well be a target, and even if he proves too costly, the market includes a variety of other top-of-the-rotation options. Zack Greinke is the consensus second-best pitcher, and the Giants have previously been connected with Jordan Zimmermann. If San Francisco doesn’t go that route, or if it adds such a pitcher but misses on Leake, there are a variety mid-tier arms (like Ian Kennedy and Yovani Gallardo) as well as a host of bounce-back veterans (such as Doug Fister, Mat Latos, and Kyle Lohse) who could theoretically be considered as well. It’s difficult to prognosticate what direction San Francisco will take — we’ve seen the club pursue high-cost arms and short-term veterans in recent years — but there will be no shortages of possibilities.

San Francisco also could seek to add some depth to its pen, which will lose Jeremy Affeldt to retirement. The bulk of the unit should return, with Romo, Santiago Casilla, and Javier Lopez serving as a veteran core, accompanied by Petit, George Kontos and newer arms like Hunter Strickland and Josh Osich. A veteran pitcher or two — possibly including Lincecum, if he returns but doesn’t crack the rotation in the spring — probably wouldn’t hurt, but there’s not much work to do here.

There’s even less need for repair in the infield, where the Giants thrived in 2015. Matt Duffy made the loss of Sandoval seem like a blessing by putting up nearly five wins at a fraction of the cost. Brandon Crawford (shortstop), Joe Panik (second), Brandon Belt (first), and Buster Posey (catcher) rounded out what might’ve been the best infield in baseball. Then again, Panik dealt with back issues, while Belt had both a concussion and meniscus surgery late in the year, so they’ll need to get back to full health. Meanwhile, Duffy will need to prove that he isn’t a one-year wonder, and Crawford will look to maintain his ascendancy.

The outfield has some questions. While the situation looks straightforward at first glance, it may not be. Hunter Pence is a lock in right, and will hope for better health than he experienced last year. Gregor Blanco has been outstanding in a fourth outfielder role and will be back as well. Then, there’s center field, where Angel Pagan seemingly remains in line for regular duty.

It would be easy enough to say “add a left fielder” and call it a day, but it isn’t quite that simple. For one thing, Pagan had a wreck of a 2015 season and continues to deal with persistent injury issues. While Blanco has spent a good bit of time in center over his career, defensive metrics have always preferred him in the corner — especially the last two seasons. So, there’s an argument to be made that the Giants ought to consider adding a center field-capable player, whether as an upgrade or a platoon mate/back-up plan.

Even if the Giants simply look to add a left fielder, with the idea of continuing to use Blanco as an all-over-the-outfield sub, they face a tough decision on Nori Aoki’s option. That looks like a cheap pick-up, but his concussion issues could be problematic. And there are other options. The Giants hold a $8MM option over deadline acquisition Marlon Byrd. While that seems a bit too expensive, the team has expressed some interest in retaining both Byrd and Alejandro De Aza, who was also added over the summer. All of those players have their merit for San Francisco, but it’s also arguable that the club should look for more impact out of that roster spot. On the other hand, such short-term options hold increased appeal given that corner outfield prospects Jarrett Parker and Mac Williamson are now near or at big league readiness.

In terms of targets, it’s really anyone’s guess for the reasons noted above. The market has a number of high-end options (e.g., Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, Alex Gordon) and several shorter-term candidates with track records in center (such as Dexter Fowler, Colby Rasmus, Gerardo Parra, and Austin Jackson). And there is one free agent who might answer several of the team’s needs: Ben Zobrist. While the same can be said of many other clubs, and though the refrain has become tiresome, it nevertheless remains true that he’d offer a regular solution in the corner outfield in addition to providing coverage for the infield, where relative inexperience and injury questions are a factor despite the stellar 2015 performance.

Of course, it’s always possible to upgrade the bench, and that’s arguably more pressing with some injury questions surrounding multiple key regulars. Adding a reserve corner infielder/outfielder who can provide some pop might make sense, depending on how the team proceeds in left field, but the Giants have at least three important pieces covered. In addition to the aforementioned Blanco, 25-year-old Kelby Tomlinson impressed in his rookie year, and could serve a super-utility role.

Then there’s Andrew Susac, a very promising young backstop who could free Posey to spend more time at first. It’s certainly appealing to imagine a scenario where Susac, Posey, and Belt all play significant innings for San Francisco, but that may be hard to work out in practice without a DH — unless Belt spends more time in the outfield. While the current situation probably does not make for a serious roster crunch just yet, particularly as the team may prefer to wait another year to see how everything progresses, Susac could be a major trade piece for San Francisco if they look to add an arm through the trade market.

All said, there may not be a ton of pieces to add for the Giants. But deciding precisely which ones to pursue, and how to re-arrange the team’s in-house options to make that happen, won’t be easy.

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