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Archives for June 2016

AL Central Notes: Rollins, Ventura, Nunez

By Steve Adams | June 10, 2016 at 9:18pm CDT

Following his DFA from the White Sox, Jimmy Rollins hopes to continue his career, per ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter link). Crasnick speculates that Rollins could make a nice addition as a bench piece for a contender, which seems like a reasonable role for him at this juncture of his career. Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle, meanwhile, tweets that Rollins, a Bay Area native, hasn’t been interested in playing for the Giants in the past but has long been open to the idea of playing for the Athletics, for whom he grew up cheering.

A few more notes pertaining to the AL Central…

  • Following up on Jeff Passan’s report from earlier this week regarding Yordano Ventura, FOX’s Ken Rosenthal wrote that he, too, heard that Ventura had been offered to other clubs in trades as recently as a couple of weeks ago. However, Rosenthal adds that when he questioned a Royals official on the matter, he was met with a reply about how perilously thin the Kansas City rotation is even with Ventura on board. That’s not a firm denial, of course, and the Royals could conceivably ask for a rotation piece back in theoretical trade scenarios. Trade talks aside, Rosenthal wrote that the Royals have spoken to Ventura about his maturity issues over and over again with seemingly little effect. The issues go beyond his fiery demeanor, Rosenthal notes, as Ventura is known to even add some dramatic flair to his pitching mechanics during games; while he looks smooth and fluid in side sessions, he’s taken to finishing with a high, exaggerated leg kick during games — a trend the Royals would like to stop. Rosenthal opines that Ventura’s career is at a crossroads, noting that he was a rock in their rotation as recently as 2015 postseason but hasn’t demonstrated a willingness to curtail his emotions.
  • Eduardo Nunez has been an unexpected bright spot in an otherwise dismal season for the Twins, writes 1500 ESPN’s Judd Zulgad, which is the precise reason that he opines the Twins should look to sell high on him this summer. Every action the Twins make from this point forth needs to be with 2017 and beyond in mind, he continues, and moving Nunez (who can be a free agent following the 2017 season) while his value is at or near its peak would return young talent and allow the Twins an extended look at top infield prospect Jorge Polanco. The Mets are one speculative trading partner for the Twins with regards to Nunez, who is batting an excellent but likely unsustainable .332/.357/.531 through 209 plate appearances this season and is capable of playing shortstop, second base, third base and left field.
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Kansas City Royals Minnesota Twins Jimmy Rollins Yordano Ventura

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MLBTR Roundtable: Trading Julio Teheran

By Steve Adams | June 10, 2016 at 6:34pm CDT

Earlier today, I laid out a high-level overview of the cases both for and against the Braves trading Julio Teheran. While there are certainly some gray areas in making a decision — every player, no matter how good, becomes tradeable once the value received in exchange reaches a certain point — we’ve asked the entire staff at MLBTR to offer its thoughts on whether the Braves should be open to making a move or should hang onto their best starting pitcher.

You can read the above-linked post for more info on the 25-year-old righty. Or, skip right ahead to the opinions of the MLBTR team:

Tim Dierkes: As the saying goes, “Better the devil you know than the devil you don’t.”  Teheran has been in the Braves’ organization for nearly a decade, and they know him better than anyone.  It was that familiarity that led them to sign him to a deal guaranteeing $32.4MM back in 2014, a fairly aggressive extension for a pitcher with less than two years of Major League service time.  Research from Matt Swartz has shown that it is hard to avoid lemons when signing away free agent pitchers from other teams.  The Braves may have good money to spend this winter in advance of their new stadium opening, but in addition to the issue of the “Other People’s Players” premium Swartz discovered, the free agent market for starting pitching looks historically bad.  Even with Teheran, the Braves will need to add significant starting pitching if they hope to contend in 2017. Verdict: Retain him.

Steve Adams: There’s virtually no scenario in which trading Teheran makes the Braves better in 2016, and they’d be hard-pressed to find a deal that makes them definitively better in 2017 — the year in which they supposedly aim to contend in a new stadium. The Braves have stocked their farm with pitching depth, but Teheran is their best pitcher in the Majors right now, and his $32.4MM contract has enough surplus value that the asking price could (and should) reasonably rival the Shelby Miller haul. A return of that magnitude strikes me as extremely unlikely, and given the backlash they’ve had from fans in John Coppolella’s first season as general manager, moving the team’s clear top starter for more young pieces wouldn’t sit well with their audience. Verdict: Retain him.

Jeff Todd: As things stand, Teheran has had great results in three of his four full seasons in the majors. He’s young, he racks up innings, and he has an appealing contract. On the other hand, he doesn’t have elite swinging strike rates, isn’t much of a groundball pitcher, and has always outperformed ERA estimators — yes, even in 2015 — which have recently viewed him as a ~4.00 (and change) performer. In large part, then, his value is dependent upon whether one believes that’s sustainable. He’s still a nice piece regardless, and at worst he provides Atlanta with a sturdy mid-rotation piece as it exposes its top prospects to the majors, but I’m actually in favor of looking to sell while the gettin’ is good. Teheran’s value is up, especially with a mediocre set of fellow trade targets and a seemingly barren free agent starter crop coming this winter, and frankly I’m not bullish on Atlanta’s 2017 outlook. Too many things need to go right, and the lackluster overall free agent class may not be conducive to building out a competitive roster for a reasonable price. PR considerations aside, a deal that includes at least a high-quality, advanced position-player prospect makes sense to me, even if a truly premium youngster can’t be had. Verdict: Shop him.

Mark Polishuk: The Braves’ long-stated plan was to return to contention when their new ballpark opens in April 2017.  While that timeline may have been pushed back a bit thanks to their terrible record this season, the organization obviously still wants to be competitive sooner rather than later.  Even if they wait until 2018 to make a push, that’s still well within the life of Teheran’s contract and the prime of his career.  If I’m the Braves, I hang onto Teheran now (barring a Godfather offer from another team, of course) since I’d find myself looking for a Teheran-type of pitcher within a year or two anyway. Verdict: Retain him.

Charlie Wilmoth: Not to straddle the fence, but I think the Braves should strongly consider trading Teheran but keep him if they don’t get a return they like. A rebuilding team should consider trading any veteran starter in the midst of a good year. You never know when a pitcher might lose velocity, get hurt, or decline for other reasons, so keeping Teheran to pitch for a bad team is risky asset management. Teheran and Shelby Miller are different types of pitchers, but Miller’s case demonstrates that principle. Even leaving aside the terrific return the Braves wouldn’t have received if they hadn’t dealt Miller, how bad would it have been for Atlanta if the Braves had kept him and then he had a 2016 season like the one he’s having now with the Diamondbacks? On the other hand, Teheran is only 25 and is under control and cheap through 2020, so he could easily be part of the next good Braves team. Add in that the Braves would surely like to play well next season for the opening of their new ballpark, and there are compelling reasons to keep Teheran around. I’d try to deal him, but if the offers are underwhelming, holding on is reasonable too. Verdict: Hung jury!

Connor Byrne: The crop of starters who are expected to be available prior to the trade deadline looks mostly unappealing, as does the upcoming class of free agents, so the rebuilding Braves should at least shop Teheran. The next several months could serve as the perfect time frame for the Braves to get more for Teheran than he’s worth. If they put Teheran on the block and don’t get a palatable enough offer, then keeping him wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. With his team-friendly contract, Teheran won’t have to perform like much more than a back-end starter to provide value over the next few years, meaning the Braves won’t be in a negative position if they retain him. However, by no means should John Coppolella be so intent on acquiring a young, established major league hitter in return for Teheran that he summarily spurns other offers. Teheran’s only a year removed from a 4.00 ERA season with a below-average 2.34 K/BB ratio. We’re not talking about a Jose Fernandez-esque superstar here; rather, Teheran’s contract and durability are arguably the two best things he has going for him. The Braves shouldn’t need to be “overwhelmed” to trade him, then, even though Coppolella said otherwise last month. Verdict: Shop him.

That’s where we stand, but we’ll also open this one up to our readers with a poll (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users):

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Atlanta Braves MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Julio Teheran

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Minor MLB Transactions: 6/10/16

By Steve Adams | June 10, 2016 at 5:38pm CDT

Here are the day’s minor moves from around the league…

  • The Angels announced that both right-hander Javy Guerra and left-hander Chris Jones have cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A Salt Lake after having been designated for assignment earlier this week. Guerra, having previously been outrighted, has the right to reject the assignment in favor of free agency, though he’s already accepted one outright from the Halos this season. Guerra has a 5.68 ERA through just 6 1/3 inning with the Angels this season but has worked to a 2.99 ERA in 156 2/3 innings over the life of his Major League career. The 27-year-old Jones was acquired from the Orioles in a minor trade late in Spring Training and has worked to a 7.33 ERA in 50 1/3 innings at Triple-A this season despite a good deal of prior success at that level. In 390 2/3 innings of Triple-A work, Jones has a 3.66 ERA even after this season’s poor results.
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Los Angeles Angels Transactions Chris Jones Javy Guerra

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Austin Jackson Out At Least 6 Weeks With Torn Meniscus; Petricka, Webb Out For Season

By Steve Adams | June 10, 2016 at 4:20pm CDT

The White Sox announced today that they’ve placed center fielder Austin Jackson on the 15-day disabled list with a medial meniscus tear in his left knee. Jackson will undergo surgery to repair the injury and will miss a minimum of six weeks, GM Rick Hahn told reporters, including Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago (Twitter link). Beyond that, Hayes tweets that  Hahn informed the media that relievers Jake Petricka and Daniel Webb have undergone season-ending surgery. Webb had Tommy John surgery to repair a torn ulnar collateral ligament, while Petricka required surgery to repair an impingement in his right hip. Outfielder Jason Coats has been recalled from Triple-A Charlotte to take Jackson’s spot on the roster.

The loss of Jackson won’t subtract an overly productive bat from the club’s everyday lineup — Jackson is hitting .254/.318/.343 through 204 plate appearances — but it will thin the team’s outfield depth and deprive the Sox of their primary center fielder. Adam Eaton shifted over to center field for tonight’s contest and could very well take the reins at the position he frequented for the first four seasons of his big league career. Jackson had posted below-average defensive metrics in center this season, but Eaton rated as arguably the best defender in all of baseball while playing right field, so moving him off that position could be a detriment to the club’s overall outfield defense even if his work in center is a small step up from that of Jackson. Eaton, after all, also carries below-average Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating marks in center field for his career.

Petricka, 28, is a particularly big loss for the Chicago bullpen. While he’s hardly a shutdown reliever, the former second-round pick tallied 144 1/3 innings of 3.24 ERA ball across the 2013-15 seasons for the ChiSox and had averaged 64.5 appearances over the past two seasons. He’s been limited to eight innings this year, however, as a result of the hip injury that ultimately required surgery. Webb, meanwhile, opened the season in Triple-A and pitched just one inning in late April before landing on the disabled list with right flexor inflammation. While he struggled through the 2015 campaign (6.30 ERA in 30 innings), Webb was better in 2013-14, pitching to a 3.87 ERA in a combined 79 innings out of the bullpen. The hard-thrower averaged nearly 96 mph on his fastball in that 2013-14 span, but his heater was sitting at 92 mph in his lone big league appearance of the 2016 season (though he still managed to strike out the side).

While the Sox can stick with Coats and Avisail Garcia and cover right field internally, the team has shown a very proactive approach in attempting to right the ship after a hot start disintegrated into a .500 record. The South Siders have already picked up James Shields in a trade and designated Mat Latos for assignment, and earlier today the team promoted top shortstop prospect Tim Anderson from Triple-A and designated veteran Jimmy Rollins for assignment. The Sox have already been connected to both left-handed bats and bullpen help, so it’s reason to believe that these significant hits to their depth could push Hahn and his staff into further action on the trade market. Jay Bruce and, to a lesser extent, Carlos Gonzalez stand out as reasonable options on that would satisfy Chicago’s desire for a left-handed bat and fill the right field void left by Eaton. Alternatively, they could pursue a left-handed bat with center field experience such as San Diego’s Jon Jay. Petricka and Webb, while neither are exactly cornerstone relievers for the Sox, further deplete the organizational depth and could lead the Sox to pursue any of the considerable amount of relievers that are currently available or could become available on the trade market.

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Chicago White Sox Newsstand Austin Jackson Daniel Webb Jake Petricka

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7 Surprise Players Making Cases To Land Qualifying Offers

By Connor Byrne | June 10, 2016 at 3:08pm CDT

Since Major League Baseball instituted the qualifying offer system in 2012, the cost to extend one to a free agent has gradually risen from $13.3MM on a single-year contract to $15.8MM. That number figures to increase again this year, which is all the more reason for teams to be vigilant when distributing them. Last year was the first time a player accepted the offer – three did, actually – which prevented their teams from watching them depart in free agency in favor of a first-round compensatory pick.

Looking ahead to the upcoming offseason, potential free agents like Yoenis Cespedes, Jose Bautista and Kenley Jansen, among others, are slam dunks to receive qualifying offers if they reach November without being traded and without new contracts (Cespedes would have to opt out of his current deal, which he seems likely to do). That premier group of shoo-ins could be joined by a slew of players who have been surprise standouts so far this year. Those players are…

Mark Trumbo, 1B/RF/DH, Orioles: Six months ago, the Mariners dealt Trumbo to Baltimore for backup catcher Steve Clevenger in what amounted to a salary dump. Trumbo established himself as a notable home run threat during the first five years of his major league career, hitting 131 balls over the fence from 2011-15, but that’s about all he did well. In addition to proving himself a defensive liability, Trumbo struck out too much, walked too little and got on base at a paltry .301 clip. The Mariners, already Trumbo’s third team, decided it made more sense to get rid of his salary (which ended up at $9.15MM after a January arbitration hearing) than deal with his shortcomings.

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The Baltimore version of Trumbo brings the same flaws to the table as he did in previous stops, but now he’s doing his best to offset his imperfections by producing like an elite hitter. The 30-year-old has already totaled a major league-leading 20 homers, and he ranks fourth in ISO (.316, 99 points higher than his career mark) and is tied for fifth in wRC+ (155) through 251 plate appearances.

Trumbo – who has slashed .296/.347/.609 – has helped himself by chasing fewer bad pitches than ever, having swung at a career-best 32.7 percent of offerings outside the strike zone, and has elevated the ball and hit it both hard and far when he has swung. Trumbo’s 43.1 fly ball percentage and 37.5 ground-ball rate are both personal bests, and Statcast (link via Baseball Savant) indicates that the ball is coming off Trumbo’s bat at a mean of 95.3 miles per hour – good for fourth in the league – and traveling an average of 250 feet. At that distance, he’s tied with teammate Chris Davis, among others, for seventh in the league. Further, as pointed out earlier this week by FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan, Trumbo’s stellar production at the plate goes all the way back to last July – nearly a calendar year. All things considered, the Orioles have a prodigious slugger who’s on a collision course with a qualifying offer.

Rich Hill, SP, Athletics: Hill went on the disabled list Thursday with a strained right groin, which is a troubling development for someone who has a long injury history and hasn’t exceeded 100 innings in a major league season since 2007. Nevertheless, the 36-year-old was among the top starters in baseball over the season’s initial two months. Eleven starts and 64 innings into 2016, the curveball specialist owns the league’s ninth-best ERA (2.25) and 10th-best K/9 (10.41), and Hill has amassed those numbers while inducing plenty of grounders (48.1 percent rate) and generating soft contact (87 mph exit velocity). Both Hill’s early season brilliance and the A’s struggles make him an ideal candidate to move prior to the Aug. 1 trade deadline. If the A’s do sell Hill, he won’t be eligible to receive a qualifying offer in the offseason from his new team. In the event Oakland keeps Hill and he doesn’t turn into a pumpkin before the end of the season, he’ll be a strong bet to land a qualifying offer. Given Hill’s journeyman status, including a stint in the independent Atlantic League last summer, his story is already rather improbable. If he goes from Long Island Duck in July 2014 to major league qualifying offer recipient in November 2016, it would add yet another unexpected chapter to the book.

Michael Saunders, LF, Blue Jays: When it comes to Toronto’s pending free agents, almost all of the attention has understandably gone to Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. Saunders’ start to the year has also made him worth paying attention to, though, as he has rebounded from an injury-ravaged 2015 to upstage his more accomplished teammates. Through his first 222 trips to the plate, Saunders leads all Jays regulars – including reigning AL MVP Josh Donaldson – in average (.294), OBP (.374) and slugging percentage (.528), and he’s third on the team in both ISO (.234) and fWAR (1.5). On a leaguewide scale, Saunders’ 145 wRC+ places him in a tie with former NL MVP Ryan Braun and slightly ahead of other world-class talents like Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, Miguel Cabrera and Bryce Harper. It’s possible Saunders’ success is largely driven by a .376 BABIP and he’ll eventually revert to being merely the decent cog he was during his most productive seasons with the Mariners from 2012-14. For now, he’s following in the footsteps of Bautista and Encarnacion as the Jays’ latest out-of-nowhere offensive star. That puts Saunders on pace to once again mimic those two in receiving a qualifying offer.

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Wilson Ramos, C, Nationals: Ramos, whom the Nationals considered replacing during the offseason, has gone from injury-prone mediocrity to early season superstar. With a sparkling .345/.392/.594 line through 181 PAs, Ramos has been the preeminent hitting catcher in the majors this season by a wide margin. Ramos has strengthened his triple slash by belting eight home runs while striking out just 11.6 percent of the time. The 28-year-old’s swing rate on pitches outside the zone is at 31.3 percent, which is 4.1 percent better than his career average, and he has posted personal bests in contact rate (90.5 percent) and swing-and-miss rate (7.9 percent). Ramos won’t sustain an inflated BABIP (.360) that’s 72 points higher than his career mark, but there are reasons to believe his offensive breakout is mostly real. Defensively, Ramos doesn’t rank as a particularly effective pitch framer, though he has thrown out six of 17 would-be base stealers. That puts Ramos on course to exceed the league-average caught stealing rate for the fourth straight season. Given the dearth of quality catchers slated for free agency, it’s hard to envision the Nats not qualifying Ramos if he continues faring well – let alone performing like one of the most valuable backstops in the majors.

Steve Pearce, 1B/2B/OF, Rays: Pearce escaped anonymity in 2014 to log the league’s sixth-best wRC+ (161) and a 4.9 fWAR in just 383 PAs with the Orioles, but his follow-up campaign was a dud. As a result, the 33-year-old had to settle for a one-year pact with the division-rival Rays in January. The 2014 Pearce is now back in full force, as the first baseman/second baseman has recorded an identical 161 wRC+ on the strength of a .321/.403/.537 line and eight homers in 154 PAs. Pearce has also drawn nearly as many walks (18) as strikeouts (22) while improving his swing rate on pitches outside the zone and swinging and missing at under 10 percent of general offerings. The Rays have one of the majors’ lowest payrolls and might not want to risk allocating in the neighborhood of $16MM to Pearce next season via the qualifying offer, but they’ll have a difficult time not extending him a QO if he keeps this up.

Brandon Moss, 1B/LF, Cardinals: During a three-year stretch in Oakland from 2012-14, Moss batted an outstanding .254/.340/.504 with 76 homers and a combined 6.9 fWAR in 1,381 PAs. After undergoing October 2014 hip surgery, Moss was subpar as a member of both the Indians and Cardinals last year, which made him into something of an afterthought. Now, in his first full season in St. Louis, the 32-year-old is turning back the clock a bit with a .247/.335/.568 line, 13 HRs and the majors’ third-ranked ISO (.322) in 167 PAs. With the chance to decline the soon-to-be 37-year-old Matt Holliday’s $17MM club option at season’s end, the Redbirds could qualify Moss in hopes of keeping the power-hitting first baseman/left fielder around in 2017 as a ready-made replacement.

Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Phillies: After years of compiling below-average strikeout totals in stints with the Rays and Diamondbacks, Hellickson is finally revisiting his days as an elite prospect in that regard – both his 9.04 K/9 and 4.06 K/BB ratio rank in the league’s top 25 among qualified starters. Hellickson’s resurgence is thanks largely to his changeup, which has been the fourth-most valuable pitch of its kind this year, and a top 30 curveball (per FanGraphs). As is the case with Hill, Hellickson looks like a prime summer trade candidate, but if Philly keeps the 29-year-old around for the stretch run and he continues showing strong skills and preventing runs at a respectable clip (3.80 ERA), he could get a qualifying offer in an unremarkable class of free agent starters.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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MLBTR Originals

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Latest On Zack Collins

By Steve Adams | June 10, 2016 at 10:19am CDT

UPDATE: There no formal agreement between the two sides in place as of yet, Murray tweets, retracting his initial report.

10:19am: The White Sox have agreed to terms with first-round pick Zack Collins, per Baseball Essential’s Robert Murray (links to Twitter). The University of Miami catcher was selected with the 10th overall pick, which came with a slot value of $3,380,600. SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets that Collins signed for slot value.

Zack Collins

Collins entered the draft ranked 14th on the Top 200 prospects list from Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis of MLB.com, ranked 16th by Baseball America and ranked 18th by ESPN’s Keith Law. Mayo and Callis note that Collins was a top 100 draft prospect back in 2013 but slid to the Reds in the 27th round due to his strong commitment to Miami. All three scouting reports agree that Collins is a bat-first catcher that may not be able to stay behind the plate, as Law notes that a move to first base or DH is likely. The other two give him more of a chance to remain at catcher, noting that he’s improved his throwing. BA writes that he’ll never be an above-average backstop but has a chance to stay there thanks to the improved throwing.

Collins addressed those perceived defensive shortcomings in an interview with MLBTR contributor Chuck Wasserstrom earlier this spring, telling Wasserstrom: “Obviously, I’m an offensive catcher, but I’m working on my defense a lot lately. I think I’ve gotten a lot better defensively … I’ve worked a lot on my blocking and receiving and throwing and footwork – all that kind of stuff. We actually have a new catching coach down here in Miami (Norberto Lopez), and he’s helped me a ton.” Collins also talked about his extremely patient approach at the plate and the importance of recognizing that it’s best for the team to take a walk when he’s not presented with pitches to hit as opposed expanding the zone to try to put a ball in the seats.

In his junior season at Miami, Collins batted an impressive .358/.534/.631 with 13 homers and nine doubles in 176 at-bats. He drew 69 walks against just 48 strikeouts as well, and that display of power and a discerning eye at the plate led MLB.com to peg him as a potential 20-homer bat on a year-to-year basis. Collins is the first player from this year’s first round to reportedly agree to terms with a club, and we at MLBTR will be continually updating our list of first-round and list of compensation/competitive balance round A picks with numbers as the players begin to sign. The White Sox had a draft pool of $9.354MM, so with Collins signing for slot value, they have $5.973MM remaining to spend on their other selections before exceeding their pool (and $6.441MM to spend before incurring the loss of future draft picks for exceeding said pool by more than five percent).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2016 Amateur Draft Chicago White Sox Zack Collins

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The Cases For And Against A Julio Teheran Trade

By Steve Adams | June 10, 2016 at 8:55am CDT

We’re firing up another new series here at MLBTR in which we’ll take one oft-discussed topic each week and present the high-level cases both for and against the move in question. Following that, we’ll present a roundtable of opinions from the MLBTR staff in a separate post and ask our reader base to weigh in on the matter with a poll.

With the Braves in full rebuild mode and their stated willingness to listen to offers for anyone not named Freddie Freeman,  it’s only natural that Julio Teheran’s name has come up frequently early in the summer. Last week, MLBTR’s Connor Byrne examined the difficulties in identifying a trade partner that had both the need to add Teheran and the ability to part with the MLB-ready types of young talent which Atlanta is said to covet in a theoretical deal.

Teheran is off to an incredible start to his 2016 season, having pitched to a 2.85 ERA with 8.5 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and a 42.5 percent ground-ball rate in 82 innings out of the Atlanta rotation. He also looks to be well on his way to a third straight season of 200+ innings in just his age-25 season. He’s benefited from some good fortune in terms of BABIP (.228) and strand rate (83 percent), but Teheran has posted a BABIP lower than the league average throughout his career and also posted strand rates that are above the league norm, so while some regression can be expected, it probably shouldn’t be assumed that those numbers will trend all the way back to the league averages.

We’re a good seven and a half weeks away from this year’s non-waiver trade deadline, and Teheran is pitching brilliantly for a last-place club in the midst of a rebuild, expect to hear his name floated with some degree of regularity between now and Aug. 1. However, does the very fact that he’s an appealing asset on a rebuilding club mean that Teheran should be traded? Let’s look at both sides of the coin.

The case for trading Julio Teheran

The case for the Braves to trade any player on their big league roster always starts at the same place: they’re a team that wasn’t good in 2015 and has been significantly worse in 2016. Atlanta is currently on a course for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 draft, and they’ll be among the few teams that are definitive sellers leading up to the Aug. 1 non-waiver trading deadline. The Braves will probably field calls on any and all pieces that could help a contending club, and Teheran, as noted above, more than fits that bill.

Julio Teheran

Given his strong start to the season, his highly affordable contract and the utter dearth of impact arms not only on the summer trade market but also on the upcoming free-agent market, there’s a chance that the Braves could coerce a team into parting with a potentially exorbitant package of young talent to pry Teheran from their hands. Atlanta reached that nexus of frenzied demand and willingness to surrender elite talent in the offseason’s Shelby Miller blockbuster, and there’s a case to be made that Teheran could, or at least should, be worth more. The D-backs, after all, were acquiring three years of Miller at arbitration prices, whereas a team dealing for Teheran would be taking on the remainder of this season’s salary ($2.06MM as of this writing) and three more years at $26.3MM. That’s three and a half years of Teheran for roughly $28.14MM plus a club option for $12MM in 2020 — his age-29 season. Last summer, the Rangers surrendered a package of Jerad Eickhoff, Jake Thompson, Jorge Alfaro, Nick Williams and Alec Asher in the Cole Hamels/Jake Diekman trade. Teheran’s entire contract is worth barely more than a season of Hamels, financially speaking.

Moving Teheran this summer could net the Braves an MLB-ready asset (as Eickhoff gave the Phillies or as Ender Inciarte and Aaron Blair gave the Braves in the Miller deal) as well as multiple high-ceiling, top 100 range prospects. The 2016 product is bad, and moving Teheran right now could net them two or more pieces that would help in 2017, when more of their vaunted farm system is at the Major League level.

The case against trading Julio Teheran

On the flip side, the Braves are aiming to contend in 2017, and Teheran helps them tremendously in that vein. Matt Wisler’s solid start to the season aside, Teheran is the Braves’ best pitcher. He misses more bats, generates more grounders and has displayed better control over the course of his career than Wisler has in his. Trading Teheran almost certainly makes the Braves a worse team in 2016, and there’s a very real chance that doing so would make them worse in 2017 as well. Acquiring MLB-ready assets is always a plus, but prospects aren’t guaranteed, no matter how highly regarded they may be. Teheran is performing well in the Majors right now and has done so since 2013, posting a cumulative 3.30 ERA in 689 1/3 innings.

The contract, as mentioned above, gives the Braves the best years of a pitcher that may not be a definitive ace but can clearly pitch near the top of a Major League rotation at an exceptionally affordable rate. Teheran is in his fourth season of big league service and would’ve been arbitration-eligible for the second time this coming winter. He’s earning salaries of $3.3MM, $6.3MM and $8MM for his arbitration seasons and can be controlled for just $23MM total for his first two would-be free-agent seasons. His arb years are cheaper than the likes of Wade Miley and Lance Lynn, and Teheran’s free-agent seasons are priced somewhere in the range of 50 to 75 percent of what they’d command on the open market (as is the case with most pre-arbitration extensions). There’s an enormous amount of value to the Braves themselves in that deal.

Beyond the on-field and financial reasons for keeping Teheran, the Braves have been aggressively working to fight the notion that they’re “tanking” in order to continue to build up the farm through the draft. General manager John Coppolella has repeatedly stressed that his hope for the 2016 season was an improvement over 2015’s record and strides toward a competitive product in 2017 — the opening season of the Braves’ new stadium, Sun Trust Park. Trading away their best pitcher for even more young, controllable pieces would only further fuel the tanking narrative, even if the return brought the potential for multiple contributors to the 2016-17 roster. The Braves would also face continued backlash from a fanbase that has been particularly vocal about its thoughts on the current rebuild, and while fan reaction shouldn’t be the deciding factor in a move, it’s certainly something of which the Braves’ brass must be mindful as it approaches the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Atlanta Braves MLBTR Originals Julio Teheran

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Heyman’s Latest: D-Backs, Villar, Mets, Yanks, Gibbons, Ramos

By Jeff Todd | June 9, 2016 at 11:09pm CDT

Diamondbacks GM Dave Stewart tells Jon Heyman of todaysknuckleball.com that the organization is “not giving up” despite a dismal start to the year. He did acknowledge that “the signs are not real good right now,” though. And in suggesting that the team thinks there’s a chance A.J. Pollock could return by September, Stewart added, somewhat ominously: “Hopefully, we’re still in it.”

Here are some more notes from the column:

  • When asked whether the Brewers would consider dealing shortstop Jonathan Villar this summer, GM David Stearns suggested it would be unlikely. “We are looking to acquire players like that,” he said. It’s been quite a turnaround for the 25-year-old since he followed Stearns from the Astros to Milwaukee. Over 250 plate appearances, Villar owns a .306/.405/.450 batting line with a league-leading 22 steals. Better still, he’ll likely fall shy of Super Two status next year, so there’s plenty of cheap control remaining.
  • The Mets haven’t tried to open extension talks with either Noah Syndergaard or Jacob deGrom, per Heyman. It seems the same holds true of Matt Harvey, who is further ahead in service time, with a source telling Heyman that the star righty is highly unlikely to be retained past his arb eligibility. It is a bit surprising to learn, though, that the team hasn’t at least looked into whether there might be a bargain to be had amongst the pre-arb righties — deGrom in particular, since he is somewhat older and might be more willing to settle for a team-friendly rate.
  • The Yankees, meanwhile, won’t sell in the near-term, but will reconsider in the run-up to the trade period. That’s not surprising to hear; the team is, after all, still treading water in the division.
  • While the Blue Jays don’t have any inclination to part with John Gibbons at present, Heyman suggests it’s unlikely he’ll be retained past the present season. A “huge year” could change that, though.
  • The Nationals dabbled with the idea of upgrading over Wilson Ramos over the winter, but decided against it — or, at least didn’t find a deal to their liking. That’s turned out to be wise in retrospect, as the big Venezuelan is off to a notable start at the plate: .345/.392/.554 with eight home runs and just 21 walks against 13 strikeouts over 181 plate appearances. The pending free agent remains an interesting player to watch the rest of the way.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Milwaukee Brewers New York Mets New York Yankees Toronto Blue Jays Washington Nationals Jacob deGrom John Gibbons Jonathan Villar Noah Syndergaard Wilson Ramos

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Minor MLB Transactions: 6/9/16

By Jeff Todd | June 9, 2016 at 10:07pm CDT

Here are the day’s minor moves:

  • Padres corner infielder Josh Satin has retired, Michael Mayer of Metsmerized Online first reported (Twitter link). The 31-year-old has seen action in four seasons with the Mets, compiling a .243/.346/.351 slash line in 292 big league plate appearances. He has scuffled in limited playing time this year at Triple-A, though, with just eight base knocks in 49 trips to the dish.
  • The Giants have acquired outfielder Shawon Dunston Jr. from the Cubs, as he himself tweeted (h/t to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle, via Twitter). It’s a cash deal for the son of the former big leaguer, who also went from Chicago to San Francisco in the mid-nineties. Of course, the younger Dunston hasn’t yet cracked the majors; far from it, in fact. Signed to a significant bonus after being picked in the 11th round of the 2011 draft, he has yet to advance past the High-A level at 23 years of age. Over 128 plate appearances there this year, he owns a .219/.299/.342 batting line with seven steals.
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Chicago Cubs San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants Transactions Josh Satin

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2016 MLB Draft Results — Compensation & Competitive Balance Round A

By Jeff Todd | June 9, 2016 at 8:30pm CDT

With the traditional first-round picks in the books, we’ll use this post to track the “sandwich” selections that come before the second round: compensatory picks awarded to clubs that lost QO-declining free agents as well as Round A of the competitive balance picks (tradeable choices that are awarded by lottery to low-revenue/small market clubs).

Click here for bonus pools and other important context, including links to scouting reports and other assessments. Here are the picks:

Compensation Picks

24. Padres — Hudson Sanchez, SS/3B, Carroll Senior HS, Southlake, TX

25. Padres — Eric Lauer, LHP, Kent State University

26. White Sox — Zack Burdi, RHP, University of Louisville

27. Orioles — Cody Sedlock, RHP, University of Illinois

28. Nationals — Carter Kieboom, SS/3B, Walton HS, Marietta, GA

29. Nationals — Dane Dunning, RHP, University of Florida

30. Rangers — Cole Ragans, LHP, North Florida Christian HS, Crawfordville, FL

31. Mets — Anthony Kay, LHP, University of Connecticut

32. Dodgers — Will Smith, C, University of Louisville

33. Cardinals — Dylan Carlson, OF, Elk Grove HS, Elk Grove, CA

34. Cardinals — Dakota Hudson, RHP, Mississippi State University

Competitive Balance (Round A) Picks

35. Reds — Taylor Trammell, OF, Mount Paran Christian School, Kennesaw, GA

36. Dodgers — Jordan Sheffield, RHP, Vanderbilt University

37. Athletics — Daulton Jefferies, RHP, University of California

38. Rockies — Robert Tyler, RHP, University of Georgia

39. Diamondbacks — Anfernee Grier, OF, Auburn University

40. Braves (via Marlins) — Joey Wentz, LHP, Shawnee Mission East HS, Prairie Village, KS

41. Pirates — Nick Lodolo, LHP, Damien HS, La Verne, CA

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2016 Amateur Draft

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