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Cardinals Outright Harris, Rosario, Ohlman

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The Cardinals have outrighted right-handed reliever Mitch Harris and catchers Alberto Rosario and Mike Ohlman, per Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

The 30-year-old Harris spent the season on the 60-day disabled list. The Cards had hoped that he could return from Tommy John surgery in June 2015 to make an impact on the roster this season, but Harris didn’t end up pitching in the Majors or minors this year. The Naval Academy product made his MLB debut last season and tossed 27 innings of 3.67 ERA ball with 5.0 K/9, 4.3 BB/9 and a 45.1 percent ground-ball rate. In addition to the 27 frames he compiled in 2015, Harris has a 2.92 ERA with 7.2 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9 in his minor league career.

Rosario, 29, made his MLB debut this season, hitting .184/.225/.237 over the life of 41 plate appearances. He’s never hit all that much, as evidenced by his .253/.302/.327 line in parts of five Triple-A seasons, though he’s caught 42 percent of attempted base-stealers throughout his 11-year minor league career.

Ohlman, 25, is a former Orioles farmhand that spent his second season with the Cardinals organization in 2016. The 25-year-old split the 2016 season between Double-A and Triple-A, where he batted a combined .287/.344/.434. Ohlman saw 54 games/186 plate appearances at the Triple-A level this year — his first exposure to that level of competition — and fared well with the bat, hitting .280/.333/.464.

Royals Receiving Early Trade Interest In Wade Davis

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The Royals have already begun receiving quite a few calls about the availability of closer Wade Davis, per FanRag’s Jon Heyman, and the team appears willing to consider the possibility of a deal, as it was this past July when Davis was a trade candidate prior to landing on the disabled list with a forearm strain.

Kansas City has yet to exercise Davis’ $10MM option for the 2017 season and won’t do so until the completion of the World Series, though it’s a lock that they’ll do so when that decision arrives. While he’s only controlled for one more season before hitting the open market, Davis would represent a considerably more affordable late-inning option (from a financial perspective, anyhow) than free agents such as Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon.

Heyman’s report doesn’t list specific teams that have reached out the K.C. general manager Dayton Moore, but the Giants are known to be prioritizing top-tier bullpen arms this winter. Speculatively speaking, the Dodgers could make sense as an eventual trade partner, given president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman’s familiarity with him (Friedman was the GM in Tampa Bay when Davis was drafted), though certainly Los Angeles has more pressing issues on its hands as it preps for a matchup with the Cubs in the NLCS. The Cubs themselves could also be in the market for a ninth-inning arm this offseason (though they may well try to retain Chapman), while the Yankees and Nationals represent other clubs that could explore opportunities to add high-impact relief help.

Of course, any number of teams could come calling on Davis given his relatively affordable salary and his track record of excellence. Since moving to the bullpen with the Royals following multiple lackluster seasons in the rotation, Davis has transformed into one of the game’s truly elite relievers. Dating back to Opening Day 2014, Davis boasts a comically minuscule 1.18 ERA with 11.5 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and a 44.4 percent ground-ball rate. Moore has said that Kansas City will see its payroll “regress” in 2017, and swapping out Davis for some premium minor league talent and/or a cheaper, more controllable young big leaguer could help them work toward that end.

Then again, the 31-year-old Davis isn’t without his red flags. Though his 1.87 ERA in 2016 was once again pristine, his 9.8 K/9 rate was the lowest in any of his seasons as an elite reliever, while his 3.3 BB/9 rate was his highest of any full season in the ’pen. Davis’ velocity was down one full mile per hour over his 2015 average of 95.9, and he also spent a combined five weeks on the disabled list (spread across two different stints) due to forearm troubles. He surrendered three runs across his first three appearances in returning from that second DL stint, though interested parties may be heartened by the fact that he finished the year with seven shutout innings, during which he compiled a very tidy 9-to-1 K/BB ratio.

While it should be stressed that no deal would be reached with the postseason still in full swing, the preliminary talks being held now could ultimately provide the groundwork for more substantial discussions later in the offseason, be they at the GM Meetings in November or the Winter Meetings in early December.

Braves Outright De La Cruz, Lalli, Snyder

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The Braves have outrighted reliever Joel De La Cruz, catcher Blake Lalli and first baseman Brandon Snyder off their 40-man roster, according to Baseball America’s Matt Eddy. Each of the three can and very likely will become minor league free agents this offseason.

Signed to a minor league pact this offseason, the 27-year-old De La Cruz made his big league debut with Atlanta in 2016 and wound up tossing a fairly substantial 62 2/3 innings for the Braves across nine starts and 13 relief appearances. In that time, De La Cruz worked to a 4.88 ERA with 5.3 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 43.1 percent ground-ball rate. The longtime Yankees farmhand, who has also spent time in the Brewers and Nationals organizations, averaged 91.3 mph on a sinker he threw for just over half of his offerings, per PITCHf/x data, also working in a slider and a changeup. Neither De La Cruz’s Major League nor minor league numbers stand out, but his 4.15 ERA in parts of three seasons (184 1/3 innings) at the Triple-A level is an identical match with his career 4.15 ERA across five minor league levels, so he can function as a serviceable depth piece in a club’s Triple-A rotation or bullpen.

The 33-year-old Lalli, meanwhile, returned to the Majors for the first time since 2013 and picked up 13 plate appearances with a pair of hits. He’s seen parts of three seasons in the Majors, though he has just 53 plate appearances and a .305 OPS in that time. He’s fared considerably better at Triple-A, where he’s a lifetime .265/.316/.376 hitter.

And Snyder, 29, tallied 47 PAs this season and hit .239/.255/.652 — one of the stranger batting lines you’ll come across anytime soon. The 29-year-old collected 11 hits but just one single, as he belted four homers to go along with five doubles and a triple in his brief stint, bumping his career batting line to .242/.279/.459. Clearly, as evidenced by the .217 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) that he’s posted in the Majors, there’s some pop in Snyder’s bat, though he’s never been able to carve out a prolonged role in the bigs. Formerly selected with the 13th overall pick by the Orioles in 2005, Snyder is a career .274/.336/.437 hitter in the minors, including a .259/.319/.411 slash in parts of seven Triple-A seasons.

AL East Notes: Yankees, Farrell, Orioles

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Chad Jennings of the LoHud Journal News writes that it might finally be time for the Yankees to trade either Jacoby Ellsbury or Brett Gardner. Both outfielders have been oft-rumored trade candidates for more than a year, but both have (obviously) remained in New York. General manager Brian Cashman tells Jennings he’ll be open to discussing anything with other clubs this winter but doesn’t yet know where any of those talks may take him. As Jennings points out, though, the only open spots in the Yankees’ lineup right now are first base and right field, where the Yanks prefer to play Greg Bird and Aaron Judge in an ideal setting. Moving one of Gardner or Ellsbury would open another spot, in left field, where the Yankees could add a player with a bit more of an offensive-oriented profile. And, if they’re not able to acquire that type of bat but move Gardner or Ellsbury anyhow, they have an in-house replacement in the form of Mason Williams and will at least have trimmed some payroll.

More from the AL East…

  • While it’s already been announced that John Farrell will manage the Red Sox in 2017, there’s some degree of confusion pertaining his 2018 option, as Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald writes. Team president/COO Sam Kennedy said in a radio appearance on WEEI recently that the situation would be addressed in the coming days, adding that president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski would be making a recommendation to ownership. However, Dombrowski himself indicated to Drellich that there’s no timetable for either a decision on the option or a discussion with ownership about the option.
  • Meanwhile, WEEI’s Rob Bradford argues that Dombrowski and the Red Sox are handling the situation wrong by not simply committing to Farrell for the 2018 season and picking up the option. While some critics of Farrell would be even more perturbed to see his contract extended beyond 2017, not exercising the option subjects both the manager and his players to uncomfortable questions about Farrell’s status, when the only downside to committing to him would committing a relatively marginal sum from which the team could move on next season if they change their mind. (Clubs dismissing managers that have multiple years remaining on their contract is hardly irregular.) Indeed, as Bradford points out, the financial hit would be scarcely more than cutting a middle reliever.
  • Orioles GM Dan Duquette tells MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko that top prospect Chance Sisco was in high demand at the non-waiver deadline, and Duquette also sounded open-minded about trade talks this coming winter. “A lot of teams like (Chance) Sisco other than our club,” said Duquette, who added that he feels the organization has some depth behind the plate. “We know that from our trade discussions at the end of July. Whether they can do that job or not, that remains to be seen, but we do have pretty good depth in the organization at the catching position.” Sisco is the presumptive heir apparent behind the plate in Baltimore, but he’s also played just four games at Triple-A and remains a work in progress from a defensive standpoint. Sisco did hit .317/.403/.430 as a 21-year-old at Double-A this season, demonstrating his offensive upside, but he’s probably not yet ready to open the year in the Majors, and he’d be an appealing piece in the event that the O’s pursue rotation help on the trade market this winter. However, Kubatko writes that the O’s are more determined to keep Sisco now that they traded fellow catcher Jonah Heim to Tampa Bay. Even still, though, he notes that they’ll need a short-term bridge to Sisco if they keep him.

Evans, Sabean Discuss Bullpen, Cain, Posey, Arroyo, Coaches

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The Giants’ season ended in a devastating defeat that saw a gem from Matt Moore — two runs (one earned) on two hits and two walks with 10 strikeouts across eight innings — go to waste as five relievers turned a three-run lead into a one-run deficit in the ninth inning of Game 4 of the NLDS vs. the Cubs. In the wake of that stunning defeat, executive vice president of baseball operations Brian Sabean and general manager Bobby Evans spoke to the San Francisco media on Thursday, and Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area has published three different stories on the media session. (Giants fans would do well to read each in its entirety, as they contain far more quotes and context than this overview.)

Sabean and Evans emphasized that the Giants will pursue late-inning relief help this winter. A top-flight closer appears high on the wishlist for the longtime San Francisco baseball ops duo, though as Pavlovic notes, there won’t be a complete overhaul of the bullpen. The Giants are encouraged by the overall output of Derek Law, Hunter Strickland, Josh Osich, Steven Okert and Will Smith, and Evans confirmed that right-hander George Kontos will be tendered a contract as well. However, as Evans explained, the Giants believe there’s a benefit to all members of the relief corps if there’s no question as to who will be closing out games.

“The bullpen performs at a much higher level when you know who your ninth-inning guy is,” said the GM. “It puts everybody at ease and helps [manager Bruce Bochy] as he defines roles. With ambiguity, it creates tension and unknowns that can add to or detract from performance and ultimately lead to struggles.” As for how he’ll go about acquiring a closer, Evans implied a no-stone-left-unturned approach, stating that he’ll be active in free agency, trades and even evaluating his internal options.

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Terry Collins On His Future, Mets’ 2017 Roster

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Terry Collins is only under contract as the Mets’ manager through the 2017 season, but even in the event that the team has interest in re-signing him, Collins isn’t certain that he’d manage beyond next year, he tells ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin.

“I just need to re-evaluate at the end of this coming year what’s going on, where I am, how I’m feeling,” said Collins, who admitted that the 2016 season was tough on him. Asked by Rubin if the next season would be his last as a manager if he felt the same in October 2017 as he does in October 2016, Collins indicated that was likely. The 67-year-old Collins is MLB’s oldest manager, Rubin notes, and the toll of traveling for a 162-game schedule understandably takes a toll on any human being — especially on evenings on which the team has to travel following a night game in order to arrive for an afternoon contest the following day.

Collins also addressed next year’s rotation, implying the obvious truth that there are uncertainties throughout the staff. “As we saw from Zack Wheeler, not everything is etched in stone,” the manager explained. “…We’ll make sure we don’t push them too much early in spring training, so that they are ready. Coming out of spring training, are they ready to go seven innings? Probably not, some of those guys.”

Collins did note, though, that there’s “no reason” the team would expect Wheeler not to be ready come Spring Training, as it’ll have been nearly two full years since his Tommy John surgery at that point. The offseason should also give Matt Harvey (thoracic outlet syndrome), Jacob deGrom (ulnar nerve repair) and Steven Matz (bone spur removal) ample time to heal up, though there can be no certainties until each is on the mound next spring. (That fact is what prompts many to believe that the Mets are likely to re-sign veteran Bartolo Colon.)

[Related: New York Mets Depth Chart]

Furthermore, Collins emphasized the importance of getting Travis d’Arnaud back up to full strength. While he cautioned that it’s not his call as to whether the team pursues outside help behind the plate, Collins spoke like a man who currently anticipates that d’Arnaud will have every opportunity to be the regular catcher again in 2017. “We’ve got to get him better,” said Collins of d’Arnaud. “…He had 250 at-bats when he should have 500. You’re talking about a guy who missed half the season. … He is going to be one of our No. 1 projects in spring training. We’ve got to get this guy back, and we’ve got to get his bat going. If he is what we thought he’s going to be, he’s a middle-of-the-lineup guy who can do damage from the right side.”

Indeed, d’Arnaud struggled greatly in 2016, batting a mere .247/.307/.323 with four home runs in 276 plate appearances. That represents a precipitous drop-off from a 2015 season in which d’Arnaud slashed .268/.340/.485 with 12 homers in roughly the same number of plate appearances (268). Set to turn 28 years old in February, d’Arnaud has never been a poster child for healthy seasons, as he’s never topped 108 games or 385 plate appearances in a big league campaign.

This past season he missed nearly two months with a strained right rotator cuff and upon his return was ineffectual enough with the bat that he lost playing time to light-hitting veteran Rene Rivera over the season’s final weeks. He’s also spent time on the disabled list due to a concussion, a fractured finger and an elbow sprain as a Major Leaguer in addition to knee troubles while still playing in the minors.

If the Mets do wish to look outside the organization for some help at catcher — which would be a disappointing outcome for a team that not long ago boasted a pair of Top 100 prospects behind the plate in d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki — the free-agent market does offer its fair share of alternatives. Top free agent Wilson Ramos saw his future clouded by an ill-timed ACL tear late in the season, but Matt Wieters, Jason Castro, Nick Hundley and Kurt Suzuki are each coming off respectable seasons and figure to avoid being tagged with a qualifying offer. Additionally, the trade market could bear some options, including Yankees backstop Brian McCann, although the Big Apple’s two teams don’t line up on trades particularly often.

Mets fans will want to check out Rubin’s entire column, as it’s chock-full of quotes from Collins and also contains insight from Rubin, who once again indicates that the Mets fully plan on exercising their $13MM option over Jay Bruce, as he suggested following the team’s exit from the postseason.

Tyson Ross Undergoes Thoracic Outlet Surgery

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OCT. 13: Lin tweets that Dr. Thompson told Green he was pleased with the operation, indicating that no complications arose and no additional damage was found in Ross’ shoulder. Ross had one of his ribs removed to alleviate some pressure, as is common in TOS operations.

OCT. 12: Padres right-hander Tyson Ross, who made only one appearance during the 2016 season due to persistent shoulder troubles, will undergo surgery to relieve thoracic outlet syndrome, manager Andy Green tells Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The surgery comes with a projected recovery timeline of four to six months, leaving the Friars hopeful that Ross will be ready for Spring Training. Lin adds that Dr. Robert Thompson, who is considered the nation’s leading expert on thoracic outlet syndrome, will perform the surgery on Thursday.

While not as prevalent as the dreaded Tommy John surgery, thoracic outlet surgery (TOS) isn’t uncommon. Just this season, Mets right-hander Matt Harvey and Twins right-hander Phil Hughes have undergone the procedure, which alleviates a compression of blood vessels and nerves near the shoulder — often by removing a rib from the patient. Lin notes that Ross’ teammate, Clayton Richard, underwent the surgery in 2014, as did former Padres right-hander Chris Young. Other recent TOS patients include Cardinals lefty Jaime Garcia, former NL Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter and former big league reliever Mike Adams, to name a few.

Ross, 29, was an oft-speculated trade candidate both at the 2015 non-waiver deadline and in the 2015-16 offseason, but the Padres hung onto their top starter rather than deal him for what one can only assume would have been a strong package of prospects. Acquired in a what looked to be a fairly forgettable trade back in November 2012 (Oakland sent Ross and A.J. Kirby-Jones to San Diego in exchange for infielder Andy Parrino and left-hander Andrew Werner), Ross broke out with a terrific 2013 season in San Diego. From 2013-15, the former second-round pick pitched to a 3.07 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 and a hefty 58.2 percent ground-ball rate across 516 2/3 innings — including a pair of 195+ inning seasons in 2014-15.

That performance netted Ross a notable $9.625MM salary for the 2016 campaign, but he managed just 5 1/3 innings this season — all of which came on Opening Day for the Padres. His lost season obviously won’t result in any type of raise in arbitration, so San Diego figures to control him for the same amount in 2017 as well. If Ross is able to demonstrate his health and return to his previous levels of excellence, he could yet become an appealing trade asset for the Padres next July. Of course, he’ll be a pure rental at that point, as Ross is slated to hit free agency following the 2017 season. That fact makes the success of this surgery and a return to form next year all the more important for Ross, as a rebound would position him for a nice payday as he enters the open market on the brink of his age-31 season.

2017 Qualifying Offer Set At $17.2MM

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3:36pm: Joel Sherman of the New York Post hears that one adjustment that has been discussed is that no player would be allowed to be tagged with a qualifying offer in consecutive seasons (Twitter links). That, of course, isn’t a lock to implemented this offseason — if at all — but could be applied from this point forth.

Of course, that adjustment would come with its own potential pitfalls. Many teams that part with a first-round pick to sign a free agent to a one-year deal, as the Rangers did with Desmond and the Cubs did with Fowler last offseason (technically speaking, anyhow, as they’d have netted a pick had he signed elsewhere), do so knowing that the sting will be lessened by the ability to extend a QO the following season in the event that the player performs well. Removing that incentive could make teams even more reluctant to sign borderline free agents coming off of a down season.

2:27pm: The qualifying offer is expected to rise to $17.2MM this offseason, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). He adds that the QO system is likely to “remain in place,” under the new CBA, albeit with certain “adjustments.”

The specific nature of said adjustments, of course, remains to be seen, but the new figure represents a fairly significant boost to last year’s qualifying offer value of $15.8MM. In fact, that $1.4MM jump in value is the largest single-year increase in the qualifying offer’s value since the system was first implemented in the 2012-13 offseason. In that first year of the system’s existence, the QO was valued at $13.3MM — a figure that rose to $14.1MM in the 2013-14 offseason, $15.3MM in the 2014-15 offseason and $15.8MM last winter. The stark increase in this year’s total is reflective of the overall rise in salaries throughout the game, as the QO’s value is determined by averaging the salaries of Major League Baseball’s 125 highest-paid players.

For those who aren’t familiar with the QO system or need a quick refresher, it’s fairly simple. Teams that wish to receive a compensatory draft pick for the departure of a free agent must extend a one-year “qualifying offer” to that free agent, who has a week to decide whether to accept or reject the QO. If the player accepts, he is considered signed for the following season and cannot be traded without his consent until the following June (as is the case with any free agent who signs a Major League contract in the offseason). If the player rejects the QO, then he may negotiate with all 30 teams, and the team that ultimately signs him must forfeit its top unprotected draft pick. (The top 10 selections in each year’s draft are protected, so some clubs may only need to part with a second-round pick.) If a team signs multiple free agents that rejected a qualifying offer, they forfeit their top remaining unprotected pick in each instance. Players are only eligible to receive a qualifying offer if they spent the entire season with the same team. (In other words, traded players and midseason signees cannot receive a QO.)

Until the 2015-16 offseason, no player had accepted a qualifying offer. Generally speaking, the downside to rejecting had been fairly minimal, at least in relation to the upside, as even those who rejected and found reluctance when negotiating with potential suitors still found one-year deals at or near the value of the qualifying offer (e.g. Ervin Santana signing for one year at $14.1MM with the Braves late in the 2013-14 offseason). However, last winter, the trio of Matt Wieters, Colby Rasmus and Brett Anderson accepted their QOs and locked in one-year, $15.8MM salaries for this season. With the continued rise of the offer’s value, it becomes more and more enticing for free agents to accept the deal — particularly those whose free-agent earning capacity is limited to a two- or three-year contract.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently ran down a list of potential qualifying offer candidates in the latest MLBTR Mailbag, noting that a handful of players — Yoenis Cespedes (once he opts out of his contract), Edwin Encarnacion, Kenley Jansen, Justin Turner, Jeremy Hellickson, Jose Bautista, Dexter Fowler and and Mark Trumbo — are locks to receive the offer. While not all of those players will necessarily receive a contract worth more than $17.2MM on an annual basis, each has a strong case for a free-agent deal of at least three years at a significant annual value — more than enough to outweigh the risk of playing one year at a higher rate but incurring an injury or notable downturn in performance that would cause his stock to diminish the following offseason.

There are plenty of other elements of the system, of course, and you can check out this old but comprehensive overview of the system for more. For an understanding of why the qualifying offer matters so much, you can refer to MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes’ previous explanation of why avoiding the qualifying offer is so important for a free agent’s value.

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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Since July 2015, the rebuilding Reds have been able to trade away Jay Bruce, Aroldis Chapman, Johnny Cueto, Todd Frazier and Mike Leake in exchange for young talent, including several players who contributed in 2016. The team’s remaining star player, Joey Votto, is still in the prime of his career and would likely be willing to waive his no-trade clause if the rebuilding is to continue. Which direction will the Reds go this offseason?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Joey Votto, 1B: $179MM through 2023 ($20MM club option in 2014; $7MM buyout; full no-trade clause)
  • Homer Bailey, SP: $69MM through 2019 ($25MM mutual option in 2020; $5MM buyout)
  • Brandon Phillips, 2B: $14MMMM through 2017 (full no-trade clause as part of 10-and-5 rights)
  • Raisel Iglesias, RP: est. $21MM through 2020 (can opt out and file for arbitration after 2017 season)
  • Devin Mesoraco, C: $20.45MM through 2018

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; link to MLBTR projections)

Free Agents

Cincinnati Reds Depth Chart; Cincinnati Reds Payroll Information

The 33-year-old Votto is still owed close to $180MM through his age-39 season in 2023. With the expectation that he’d be past his prime for at least a few of those seven seasons, teams probably aren’t willing to take on that kind of money and give up premium young assets to get him. Unless the Reds are willing to eat a good chunk of his remaining salary, Votto is likely staying put.

With that in mind, along with a halfway decent second half (35-37) that likely saved manager Bryan Price’s job, it’s possible that the rebuilding period has come to an end. Notable acquisitions in trades for veteran talent since the 2014-15 offseason include Rookie Davis, Anthony DeSclafani, Adam Duvall, Brandon Finnegan, Dilson Herrera, Keury Mella, Jose Peraza, Cody Reed and Eugenio Suarez. With that group assembled, general manager Dick Williams could look to add an impact player or two at the major league level as he takes over the baseball operations department from president of baseball operations Walt Jocketty this offseason.

Votto might’ve been the best hitter in baseball in 2016 after struggling out of the gate. From May 1st through the end of the season, he posted a 1.044 OPS with 27 homers, 33 doubles and 96 walks. That’s a pretty good starting point if you’re building a playoff-caliber lineup. But is there enough talent surrounding him?

After posting a sub-.300 on-base percentage through the first 1350 plate appearances of his career, speedster Billy Hamilton reached base nearly 37% of the time in the second half of the 2016 season. While it was only 197 plate appearances—he suffered a season-ending oblique injury in early September—it was a very encouraging development for a Reds lineup that also had a breakout from Duvall (33 HR, 31 2B) and strong second half performances from Brandon Phillips (.828 OPS), Suarez (.765 OPS) and right fielder Schebler (.818 OPS).

A return to health from catcher Devin Mesoraco would give the Reds an additional boost. The 28-year-old has played in only 39 games since signing a four-year contract extension after a terrific 2014 season (.893 OPS, 25 HR). The expectation is that he’ll be ready for Spring Training after undergoing shoulder surgery in May and and hip surgery in July. Even if Mesoraco is healthy, the Reds figure to ease him back to regular duties with Tucker Barnhart, a strong defender who posted a .702 OPS in 2016, having proved that he was a capable big league catcher.

Even if the rebuild is over, the Reds could still look to trade Phillips—he would need to waive his no-trade clause— and shortstop Zack Cozart, with Peraza and Herrera representing capable replacements up the middle. Phillips, who vetoed a trade to the Washington Nationals last offseason, is entering the final year of his contract and set to earn $14MM.

The market for a highly-paid second baseman entering his age-36 season probably isn’t great even if Phillips agrees to waive his no-trade clause. Cozart, on the other hand, should have plenty of interest, although the Reds likely missed their best shot at trading him at peak value. When the trade deadline passed on August 1st, Cozart was having a career year with a .779 OPS and 15 homers. He stayed put, however, and went into a 19-for-96 (.198 BA) with one homer before he was shut down with a sore knee in mid-September. The Mariners, who were reportedly close to acquiring Cozart prior to the trade deadline, could still have him on their radar. The Padres and Twins, who have Luis Sardinas and Jorge Polanco penciled in, respectively, could also be interested in acquiring Cozart for 2017.

While there are no clear holes in the lineup, Schebler’s success came in a small sample (.762 OPS in 82 games) and the addition of another corner outfielder, at least to create some competition and provide depth, wouldn’t be a bad idea. Peraza, who posted a .762 OPS with 21 stolen bases in 72 games as a rookie, could also push for playing time at several different spots. He started games at shortstop, center field, left field and second base in 2016. Even if a regular lineup spot isn’t in the cards for 2017, his versatility still allows him to fill a super-utility role with at least four starts per week.

The pitching staff, despite finishing the season with the 3rd worst ERA in baseball (4.91), also gave the team plenty of reasons for optimism with strong second half performances from both the starting rotation and bullpen.

After missing the first two months of the season with an oblique injury, DeSclafani was able to stabilize the top of the rotation with a 3.28 ERA and 70% quality start rate. Taking a flyer on Dan Straily, who was claimed off of waivers just before the start of the season, worked out well. The 27-year-old led the team in wins (14), starts (31), innings (191.1) and strikeouts (162) while posting a respectable 3.76 ERA. The team’s bevy of young starting pitchers mostly struggled, but Finnegan finished on a strong note with a 2.23 ERA over his last 11 starts.

Unsurprisingly, Homer Bailey’s return from Tommy John surgery was not a smooth one (6.65 ERA in six starts) and top prospects Reed and Robert Stephenson proved that they weren’t quite ready for the big leagues. However, Bailey should be closer to his pre-injury form next April and the talented duo of Reed and Stephenson are breakout candidates in 2017. Amir Garrett (2.55 ERA, 3.7 BB/9. 8.2 K/9 between Triple-A and Double-A) could also factor into the mix.

There are still too many question marks for the Reds to stand pat, however, and the addition of another reliable starting pitcher could be at the top of their offseason wish list. But as is the case with the other 29 teams in baseball, this is easier said than done. Rich Hill, Jeremy Hellickson and Ivan Nova are the best starters available in free agency and would likely cost more than the Reds are willing to pay to upgrade their rotation. The key will be finding a gem amongst the long list of free agent mid-rotation options who are coming off of unproductive and/or injury-riddled seasons.

While Raisel Iglesias could be the frontline starter that the Reds need, the closer’s role that he finished the season in might a permanent one. With his health and durability a long-term concern, the Reds had the 26-year-old pitch out of the bullpen after a disabled list stint that kept him out of action from mid-April until late July. As expected, he was very tough on opposing hitters and his ability to pitch multiple innings proved to be valuable. By season’s end, he was Price’s top choice to close out games. Michael Lorenzen, another former starter moved to the bullpen because of health concerns, also thrived in his new role and emerged as the primary setup man.

Jumbo Diaz and Blake Wood pitched well enough to enter 2017 with spots, as did lefty Tony Cingrani, who held down the closer’s job for a long stretch before struggling in September. Alejandro Chacin, who dominated at the Double-A level in 2016 (1.78 ERA, 11.1 K/9), could also make an impact next season.

Adding two veteran relievers who Price can lean on to help ease the workload of Iglesias and Lorenzen would go a long way in bringing the Reds back to respectability. Williams has expressed a willingness to spend money to upgrade this area of the roster, which could put them in the mix for one of the top free agent relievers not named Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen or Mark Melancon.

It’s unrealistic to think that the Reds can jump to the top of the pack in a very tough division. If they continue to build on the several bright spots from the second half, however, and add some talent to the big league roster this offseason, 81-85 wins isn’t out of the question in 2017.

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