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Reds “Picking Up The Pace” On Jay Bruce Trade Talks; Mariners Interested

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JULY 27: The Mariners are among the teams that have reached out the Reds to inquire about Bruce, Crasnick reports today (Twitter link). Seattle’s offseason addition of Nori Aoki has yet to pay dividends, causing the Mariners to rely more heavily on Franklin Gutierrez and Nelson Cruz in the outfield than the team initially expected.

JULY 26: The Reds have “picked up the pace” on trade talks surrounding slugging right fielder Jay Bruce and are talking to “at least” four teams, according to ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter link). Cincinnati is seeking a top prospect in exchange for Bruce, who is in the midst of an outstanding rebound campaign at the plate.

Bruce, 29, underwent arthroscopic knee surgery early in the 2014 season and never looked like himself upon his return that year or in 2015. Over those two seasons, Bruce batted a paltry .222/.288/.406 with a combined 44 home runs, submarining a great deal of his trade value in the process (though Cincinnati still nearly moved him to Toronto in Spring Training). The 2016 season, however, has yielded a revitalized version of Bruce that is slashing an excellent .272/.326/.564 with 23 homers, 22 doubles and six triples. His 20.6 percent strikeout rate is the second-lowest of his career, and 20.9 percent homer-to-flyball ratio and 37.5 percent hard-contact rate are the best single-season marks he’s ever posted.

Where Bruce has seemingly struggled, though, is on the outfield grass. Despite sporting a park- and league-adjusted batting line that is 29 percent above league average, per wRC+, and 32 percent above league average, per OPS+, defensive metrics feel that Bruce has mitigated the majority of the value provided by his bat. Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved both peg Bruce as 12 runs below the league average right fielder, dinging him for both his range and his arm. Bruce graded out as a serviceable, if not above-average fielder last season, though, and he rated among the game’s top defenders in right field back in 2013 as well (prior to his knee surgery). Scouts, of course, will have their own take on Bruce’s glovework, and it’s certainly possible that there are evaluators out there that find such metrics to overstate Bruce’s statistical deficiencies this season. And, even if on is to believe that Bruce’s defensive game has dramatically deteriorated, his resurgent bat makes plenty of sense for an American League club that can give him significant time in the DH slot.

Bruce is earning $12.5MM this season — of which about $4.71MM remains — and has what now looks to be a reasonably priced $13MM club option on his contract as well. Bruce’s six-year, $51MM extension provides him with the ability to block trades to eight clubs, but he’s reportedly willing to waive his no-trade protection in order to play for a contending club. He’s been connected to the Dodgers, Orioles, Giants, Nationals, Rangers and Indians in the past week, and Toronto has been mentioned multiple times as a potential fit. More recent reports, though, have indicated that Cleveland isn’t in the mix for Bruce at this time. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, acquired Melvin Upton Jr. earlier today.

Trade Market For Third Basemen

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Third base has been a largely productive position for big league clubs this season, and even teams that have seen their primary options go down due to injury (i.e. the Royals and the Mets) have received solid if not above-average production from their replacements. That shrinks the number of clubs that would conceivably look to buy at the hot corner, though there are a few contenders that make sense. Cleveland, for instance, hasn’t received great production out of Juan Uribe and could shift him to a bench role with a meaningful third base upgrade. The Giants have had a carousel at the hot corner with Matt Duffy on the shelf, and the Cardinals last week placed Jhonny Peralta on the disabled list with an injury to the same thumb that cost him the first few months of the 2016 season. Other clubs could simply look to add a versatile piece (possibly with remaining club control) that could not only handle third base but a few other positions. And, as luck would have it, there are plenty such names available…

Short-Term Veterans

Todd Frazier: The White Sox are opening to offers on the majority of their roster, and while Frazier comes with plenty of name value and plenty of power, his overall production has been a bit of a letdown. Frazier’s 29 homers trail only Mark Trumbo for the Major League lead, but he’s hitting .212/.299/.475 this season. His 10.4 percent walk rate is a career-best, and there’s some poor luck in terms of BABIP (.200), but part of that low average on balls in play is due to an enormous 22 percent infield-fly rate, so he shouldn’t be expected to rebound to the league average. Frazier’s 24 percent strikeout rate is a career worst as well. Still, he’s teeming with power, earning just $8.25MM this year and owed one more raise in arbitration before free agency. The Sox probably place a high value on him, as they’re not indicating a full rebuild is in the offing.

Yunel Escobar: The .326/.372/.418 batting line that Escobar has produced this season is a near-mirror image of his .314/.375/.415 slash from his strong 2015 season with the Nationals. However, the sub-par defense he’s playing at the hot corner is also a close approximation of last season as well. That’s essentially who Escobar is, though: an average to above-average hitter with a questionable glove. He’s on a reasonable $7MM salary for the 2016 season and has a 2017 club option for the same rate, making him attractive from a financial standpoint. Escobar’s personality has drawn some questionable reviews in the past, but he received an endorsement as a teammate from Hector Santiago earlier this summer.

Danny Valencia: Whether Valencia has fallen out of favor with the A’s or Oakland simply wants to see Ryon Healy on an everyday basis to gauge his future, Valencia has lost his starting third base gig in spite of a robust .299/.351/.481 slash line this season. His defense has been abysmal, per both UZR and DRS, though he’s drawn at least competent marks from each of those metrics in the seasons leading up to 2016. Detractors will claim that Valencia’ productivity is a short-term fluke, but he’s somewhat quietly mashed at a .294/.348/.502 (131 OPS+) clip over his past 694 plate appearances. There are some clubhouse concerns here, and the defense is troubling as well, but Valencia has been an offensive force for more than a year and is controlled through 2017 via arbitration. He can probably handle some first base and left field as well.

Eduardo Nunez: Like Valencia, Nunez has quietly escalated his offensive profile dating back to Opening Day 2015. In 590 plate appearances since that time, the former Yankee is hitting .293/.326/.440 with 16 home runs and 34 stolen bases. Nunez is controlled through the 2017 season and is earning just $1.475MM this season, making him the most affordable option in this “short-term veteran” bucket. As a bonus, he’s capable of playing shortstop (where he’s played for most of the 2016 season), second base and left field as well, even if he’s not a great defender at any of the four spots. Nunez is popular among his teammates, but the disappointing Twins are likely open to moving any player within arm’s reach of free agency, and Nunez is reportedly one of their most asked-about names.

Controllable Assets

Yangervis Solarte: The Padres haven’t shied away from selling controllable pieces, and Solarte only has one more year of control than Drew Pomeranz, whom they already shipped out. He’s done nothing but hit in the Majors, is cheap for the time being, can play multiple positions and is in the midst of the best season of his career. The return for Chase Headley looked pretty light when the Padres got him, but Solarte has made it a great move for San Diego.

Jed Lowrie: Lowrie’s power has vanished, and he hasn’t played a lot of third base lately, but he’s experienced at the position and is hitting for average/OBP on an affordable contract for a clear-cut seller in Oakland. Like Solarte, he can move around the infield a bit and provide a team with at least a super-utility option if not a regular player at multiple positions.

Jonathan Villar: The Brewers needn’t feel compelled to move Villar, who is having a breakout season (.295/.377/.433 with an MLB-best 36 steals). He’s controllable through 2020, so if Milwaukee is to part with him, the return would need to be fairly significant. Orlando Arcia is going to push him off shortstop soon, but Villar could play second or third base, so that’s not much of a concern for the Brew Crew.

Logan Forsythe: The Rays have played Forsythe at second base almost exclusively, but he has a bit of experience at third and could probably handle the spot if needed. He’s continued his 2015 breakout with a .278/.339/.454 batting line this season and is affordable through the 2018 season via a $5.75MM salary next year and a club option for the 2018 season that’s valued at $8.5MM. If he continues at his current pace, those are both flat-out bargains. The Rays are selling, and $5.75MM next year is more to them than it is to most clubs.

Evan Longoria: I only mention Longoria due to some fairly vague speculation that the Dodgers would have interest in him — Longo is a known commodity for Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, who previously headed up Tampa Bay’s baseball ops department — but that’s probably true of most teams in baseball. Longoria is in the midst of a brilliant rebound season at the plate, hitting .287/.336/.535 with 22 home runs. He’s playing his typically excellent defense at the hot corner and figures to finish out the season somewhere in the vicinity of five to six wins above replacement. He’s still just 30 years of age, so the $99MM he’s owed through 2022 is perfectly reasonable. The Rays would have to be overwhelmed to move him.

Reserves/Utility Options

Gordon Beckham (Braves), Brett Wallace (Padres), Eduardo Escobar (Twins), Andres Blanco/Freddy Galvis (Phillies), Adam Rosales/Alexi Amarista (Padres), Daniel Descalso (Rockies)

As we saw at both second base and shortstop, there’s a wide variety of utility types available. The asking price on most of these players wouldn’t be all that high, with Escobar as a possible exception due to his remaining club control and the fact that he was a very solid piece for Minnesota in 2014-15.

Big Contracts/Injured Players (i.e. August Options)

Chase Headley: Headley probably draws more criticism than he deserves, as he’s quietly batted .279/.341/.442 dating back to May 1 this season and is on pace for an overall above-average campaign. He comes with concerns about his durability, and there’s a perception among some fans that he’s a bust because he hasn’t played like a star even though he isn’t being paid like one in the first place. He’s owed $5.26MM through the end of this season plus another $13MM in 2017 and in 2018. That amount of money means the Yankees would probably have to absorb some cash to move him.

Trevor Plouffe: It looked reasonable for the Twins to trade Plouffe this winter when he was coming off a pair of solid seasons as Minnesota’s regular third baseman. Now, he’s in the midst of his second DL stint and sporting a lackluster .252/.283/.399 slash with seven homers and a $7.25MM salary. The Twins have moved Miguel Sano back to third base in part to clear room for Max Kepler and in part because Sano often looked lost in the outfield. That makes it tough to see where Plouffe fits into the long-term plan once he’s healthy. Down season aside, Plouffe is controllable through 2017 via arbitration and enjoyed a .251/.317/.429 run with 20-homer pop and solid defense from 2014-15, so one can envision him piquing the interest of corner-infield-needy clubs. (Plouffe also has recent experience at first base.)

Brett Lawrie: Reportedly headed to the disabled list due to a hamstring strain (per JJ Stankevitz of CSN Chicago), Lawrie’s injury makes him an unlikely candidate to be dealt this month. However, he could be an August option for teams in need of help at second or third base. He’s sporting a roughly league-average batting line, per OPS+ and wRC+, and offers a bit of pop and speed at either position. He’s making $4.125MM this year and has another year of control before hitting free agency following the 2017 season.

2017 Qualifying Offer Estimated At $16.7MM

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Current estimates on the 2017 qualifying offer have it priced at $16.7MM, according to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (Twitter link). That would represent a year-over-year rise of $900K.

That’s a rather standard increase for the qualifying offer, which is determined by averaging the league’s 125 contracts with the highest mean salaries. It sat at $15.8MM for the current year, after rising from $15.3MM in 2015, $14.1MM in 2014, and $13.3MM in the inaugural year of 2013.

Teams can offer their departing free agents a one-year deal, at the established price tag, within five days of the conclusion of the World Series. Over the next seven days, players who receive the offer are allowed to talk with other teams and decide whether to take the single-season pact. If they reject it, then draft implications attach: their former team stands to gain a compensation pick in the following year’s draft, while a new signing team must give up their highest non-protected draft choice.

The real question with the qualifying offer, though isn’t so much its specific price tag as it is the underlying rules. With a new collective bargaining agreement being negotiated at present, many have suggested that it’s one of the most important issues that is — or, at least, could be — on the table for change. Even if something gets done, though, it presumably wouldn’t go into effect for the coming offseason.

It’s not yet clear whether there’s any realistic possibility of modifications to a system that has had a notable dampening effect on the market experiences of numerous mid-level free agents in recent years. Players entering the market after declining the one-year qualifying offer come with the added cost of draft compensation. That has arguably forced certain good but not great players — those who have the toughest decisions to decline the QO — to shoulder an out-of-proportion piece of the dampening effect that the system imposes on player salaries.

Notably, this last offseason was the first in which any player accepted a qualifying offer — thus taking a one-year deal (admittedly, at a nice price) rather than rolling the dice on a stalled market situation. Matt Wieters of the Orioles, Brett Anderson of the Dodgers, and Colby Rasmus of the Astros all took the deal. The fact that some players have now elected to take the big one-year payday and re-enter the market could conceivably make teams think twice about slapping the offer on marginal candidates.

For those who aren’t familiar with the qualifying offer system, you can check out this old-but-good overview and read up on why “avoiding the qualifying offer” is so important for a free agent’s value.

Rays, Phillies Placing High Asking Prices On Starters

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The asking prices for starting pitching don’t appear to be dipping even as some more supply hits the market, according to reports from ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick and Jayson Stark (Twitter link). Both the Rays and Phillies are said to be seeking significant returns on their best trade assets, buttressed by the idea that they don’t have to sell.

For Tampa Bay, the fact remains that none of its starters are set to reach free agency after the season, so there’s no real urgency to deal. The Rays’ surplus of controllable arms isn’t such a pressing matter that a deal is necessary, and none of its apparent trade pieces is really pitching to expectations. Jake Odorizzi has been steady enough, but the others — Chris Archer, Matt Moore, and Drew Smyly — have at best been inconsistent. Against that backdrop, perhaps it’s unsurprising that appealing offers have apparently not yet developed.

There’s plenty of time between now and the August 1st deadline for that to change, of course, but sources suggest to Crasnick that the odds are shifting towards a move over the winter. The Rays can hope that its starters turn around their performances while still feeling comfortable that the demand will be there given with a weak pending  free agent class. As an executive on a buy-side teams explains it: “There’s no urgency for them to do stuff now. They can set a price, and if they don’t get it, they’ll take it into the offseason.”

As for the Phillies, the deadline is more or less all about one name: Jeremy Hellickson. According to Stark, the Phils are letting other teams know that they will require a top-five type of organizational prospect in order to part with the resurgent righty. Though he’s a free agent, Philadelphia is apparently content with the idea that it can recoup value via the qualifying offer.

That trade stance seems like an interesting gambit that the Phillies organization is well-positioned to try. Hellickson has been lights-out of late, and the rental market is otherwise headlined by an injured Rich Hill and inconsistent Andrew Cashner. Actually holding onto Hellickson is not certain to result in a draft pick — he might fall off in the next several months or could accept a QO — but it’s a plausible enough idea at this point given that Philly has ample financial muscle to actually make him an offer even in the midst of a rebuild.

White Sox Open To Moving James Shields

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The White Sox are willing to trade away righty James Shields, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter). Shields has split his season between the Padres and the South Siders, who acquired the 34-year-old earlier in the summer.

The swap that brought Shields to Chicago also re-allocated his salary. San Diego is still on the hook for $31MM of the sizable outlay, leaving the ChiSox responsible for around $27MM from the point of the trade (June 4th) forward. Point being: the heavy lifting of re-valuing his contract has already been accomplished. Shields does still have opt-out rights following the season, which is increasingly relevant, though that doesn’t appear to be a major factor in his potential market.

Of primary importance for teams looking to bolster their rotation is the fact that Shields has been quite effective of late. His overall numbers with Chicago aren’t pretty, but that’s heavily influenced by his first three outings in the new uniform — all of which were more or less disastrous.

Since turning in a decent start on June 23rd, Shields has taken the hill six times without allowing more than two earned runs. Though he isn’t generating many strikeouts, and hasn’t regained any of his lost velocity, the veteran has averaged a robust seven frames per outing in that span and has ably managed contact.

While it’s still difficult to imagine a particularly significant return for a pitcher who is no longer the top-of-the-rotation starter, or even the mid-rotation starter, that he once was, it’s not hard to imagine interest developing. Shields is bidding for a remarkable tenth-straight season with 200 innings, is a highly-respected veteran, and has some post-season experience, so there’s added value beyond his current, on-field ability.

Latest On Andrew Cashner

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TODAY, 10:00am: The Giants are still in “active talks” with San Diego regarding Cashner, Morosi tweets, so evidently the market for his services remains wide open.

YESTERDAY, 8:05pm: Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports (via Twitter) that clubs eyeing Cashner wanted to see him pitch one more time before deciding whether to meet the Padres’ asking price. Cashner got off to a rocky start when he walked Jose Bautista and gave up a two-run homer to Josh Donaldson, but he recovered quite well, finishing the evening with three runs allowed on four hits and three walks with six strikeouts in six innings.

6:16pm: The Blue Jays/Padres game is underway with Cashner on the mound, so there’s clearly nothing imminent at this time.

3:54pm: Morosi adds that the Padres are still discussing Cashner with multiple clubs, but there’s been enough progress in talks that he could be scratched from tonight’s start vs. the Blue Jays (Twitter link).

3:39pm: The Padres are making progress on a trade involving Andrew Cashner, reports MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). Cashner, widely expected to be on the move prior to the Aug. 1 non-waiver deadline, could even be moved before tonight’s scheduled start against the Blue Jays, Morosi adds. Bleacher Report’s Scott Miller, however, heard otherwise earlier today, tweeting that the Padres are expecting Cashner to start in tonight’s game. However, Miller did add that trade talks surrounding Cashner continue, with the Blue Jays and Marlins “heavily” involved and the Rangers involved to a lesser extent.

Last week, Morosi reported that the Padres were trying to move Cashner before his Thursday start in St. Louis, though obviously those efforts came up short. Cashner threw well against the Cardinals, however, limiting them to a run on three hits and no walks with eight strikeouts across 5 2/3 strong innings, so if anything the delay in finding a trade partner may have caused an ever-so-mild uptick in his value.

Cashner, 29, is currently sporting a 4.79 ERA on the season with 7.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and a 47.3 percent ground-ball rate in 73 1/3 innings. A neck strain and a hamstring strain have resulted in a pair of DL stints and limited his innings this season, further compounding the Padres’ efforts to extract strong value in a potential trade. That said, Cashner’s heater is averaging 93.6 mph this season and has trended upward of late, and he’s still displaying an ability to rack up grounders at a rate that is slightly above the league average. His status as a former high draft pick and top prospect that looked to be delivering on that hype as recently as 2013-14 (2.87 ERA in 298 1/3 innings) creates somewhat of a sense of upside as well, even if the 2015-16 seasons have yielded decidedly underwhelming results (4.47 ERA in 258 innings).

A number of teams have been connected to Cashner in recent weeks, with the Orioles, Marlins, Blue Jays, Rangers and Giants among the supposedly interested parties. Cashner is earning $7.15MM in his final season before hitting the free agent market, and about $2.67MM of that sum remains on his contract through the end of the year. Cashner’s name has been in trade rumors for months, and the right-hander has accepted the fact that his days in San Diego are nearing an end. “I know I’m going to be traded,” Cashner told Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune following his start last week. “It’s just part of the game, part of where the season’s at.”

Central Notes: Sale, Rosenthal, Nunez, Antony

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It still seems like a fairly remote possibility that the White Sox will end up trading southpaw Chris Sale; indeed, rival executives who have spoken with the Chicago front office get the impression that the odds of a deal remain low, according to WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. That doesn’t mean that clubs aren’t trying to see what it’d take to reach a deal, though, and ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden provides an entertaining effort at identifying what kinds of trade packages could be negotiated with some major contenders.

Here’s more from the game’s central divisions:

  • The Cardinals seem to be considering how to rebuild fallen closer Trevor Rosenthal, with Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch providing an update after the righty was placed on the DL yesterday. Rosenthal told the team of shoulder discomfort, which suggests there may have been at least some injury considerations underlying his struggles. Meanwhile, the organization is weighing whether to utilize Rosenthal as a starter during his rehab stint. Whether that would put him in line to return to that role, or just permit him to work on his approach in a different manner, remains to be seen, but we’ve heard in the past that Rosenthal would like to return to the rotation.
  • Among the players being “evaluated” by the Indians is Twins utilityman Eduardo Nunez, per Buster Olney of ESPN.com (via Twitter). The 29-year-old has mostly played on the left side of the infield this year, but he also has experience at second and the corner outfield. Nunez has turned his career around over the last two years in Minnesota, as he owns a .293/.326/.440 batting line with 16 home runs and 34 steals over his last 590 plate appearances. Presumably, the interest in Nunez relates primarily to the ongoing struggles of third baseman Juan Uribe, who is hitting just .209/.262/.336 on the year.
  • It’s not yet clear how serious a candidate acting Twins GM Rob Antony is for the full-time job, but he might be back with the organization in 2017 regardless, MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger tweets. Team president Dave St. Peter noted that Antony is under contract for the coming season, and seemingly suggested that the club would like to keep him around even if he doesn’t get the permanent gig to replace Terry Ryan. Minnesota’s upper management has also made clear that skipper Paul Molitor will be retained.

Minor MLB Transactions: 7/27/16

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Here are the latest minor moves from around the game, all via Baseball America’s Matt Eddy unless otherwise noted:

  • The Rangers released outfielder Justin Ruggiano, per a club announcement. It had seemed at one point over the winter that Ruggiano would hold down an important role at the major league level for Texas, but the team ended up adding Ian Desmond and the veteran Ruggiano has received a grand total of four major league plate appearances on the year. He has been playing at Triple-A, where he owns a .226/.321/.427 batting line with seven home runs over 190 plate appearances. The eight-year MLB veteran could yet have an impact this year with another organization; he has enjoyed some productive runs in the majors, including a late-season spurt last year with the Dodgers.
  • Outfielder Ronnier Mustelier was outrighted by the Braves. He had received his first major league call-up for Atlanta at 31 years of age, but didn’t see any action. He owns a .300/.362/.399 slash over 357 plate appearances on the season at Triple-A Gwinnett. After leaving his native Cuba, Mustelier joined the Yankees organization before the 2011 season, then played mostly in Mexico and Venezuela last year after New York cut him loose.
  • The Marlins have outrighted right-hander Asher Wojciechowski after recently designating him for assignment. The 27-year-old struggled in a brief stint with the Astros last year — his only taste of major league time to date — and hasn’t really put things together since a promising 2013 campaign. Wojciochowski hasn’t been very effective this year at the Triple-A level, where he has issued too many free passes to keep runs off of the board.
  • Righty Justin De Fratus signed a minor league deal with the Nationals after being released by the Rangers. Now 28, De Fratus was a source of quality innings for the Phillies not long ago. Entering the 2015 season, he had thrown 114 major league innings of 3.08 ERA pitching with 8.1 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9. Things went south from there, however, as De Fratus scuffled to a 5.51 ERA in his ensuing campaign and hasn’t seen the majors since. He had not shown well since moving from the Mariners’ to the Rangers’ top affiliate, walking more batters than he struck out over 9 1/3 innings.

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