NL East Notes: Fernandez, Cespedes, Braves, Oberholtzer
Jose Fernandez‘s representatives at the Boras Corporation believe that their client can receive upwards of $30MM annually upon reaching the open market following the completion of the 2018 season, writes Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. As such, the Marlins feel “resigned to losing him eventually,” though that doesn’t mean they’ll trade him anytime soon. Fernandez remains affordable and excellent for the time being, and the Marlins could hang onto him until July 2018 and still receive a sizable return in a trade. If the 2016 is “an unmitigated disaster,” Jackson speculates, the timeline for a possible Fernandez trade could be accelerated, possibly making him available next winter. From my vantage point, it seems clear that the Marlins’ hope is to contend in 2016 and 2017 at the very least, as evidenced by their signing of Wei-Yin Chen and the inclusion of a two-year opt-out in his deal. Of course, if Chen opts out of that contract post-2017 (which is certainly not a guarantee) and the team looks to be facing an uphill battle toward contention, trading Fernandez could serve as a means of quickly accelerating their rebuild. Fernandez is, after all, the type of coveted talent for which teams will pay in the form of MLB-ready talent.
Here’s more from the NL East…
- ESPN’s Mark Simon cautions Mets fans to temper their expectations for Yoenis Cespedes in 2016. While he went on an otherworldly hot streak early with the Mets, a good chunk of that damage was done on the road against weak Rockies and Phillies pitching staffs. Additionally, Cespedes’ career averages prior to 2016 were considerably lesser than his averages this past year, and it’s not reasonable to expect him to maintain his peak-level performance, especially not with the minor injuries he sustained late in the year. Simon notes the projections at Fangraphs boosted the Mets’ win total by two after signing Cespedes. While some will argue that not to be a large enough differentiation, the point Simon seeks to get across is not a specific number of wins which Cespedes will provide but rather that the difference probably won’t be as striking as it was upon his acquisition last July.
- MLB.com’s Mark Bowman conducted a Q&A with Braves GM John Coppolella, during which Coppolella discussed a number of the moves made in the offseason. Coppolella told Bowman that the biggest surprises of the offseason, to him, were the trades of Andrelton Simmons and Shelby Miller. “We didn’t want to trade either player, but we also felt that the talent we received back in those deals made it too good to pass up those opportunities,” said Coppolella. Additionally, the GM discussed the importance of stockpiling young talent in light of the “hyperinflation” of the free-agent market, noting that this offseason illustrated clearly that most teams cannot simply buy a considerable amount of talent in free agency.
- Left-hander Brett Oberholtzer, one of five pitchers sent from the Astros to the Phillies in the Ken Giles trade, tells CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury that the call notifying him of the trade was a “great moment.” Oberholtzer, a Delaware native and lifelong Phillies fan, spoke highly of his time in the Astros and Braves organizations but expressed clear excitement to be joining the team he grew up watching both on TV and in person. In examining Oberholtzer’s place on the roster, Salisbury notes that the lefty is out of minor league options, thus making him a near lock for the 25-man roster. However, with Jeremy Hellickson, Charlie Morton, Aaron Nola and Jerad Eickhoff all set in the rotation, Oberholtzer will compete with former Astros teammate Vincent Velasquez (also a part of the Giles swap) for the final rotation spot. Oberholtzer tells Salisbury that he’s versatile and can pitch in either a relief or starting role, but the rotation is his preference.
Details On The Nationals’ Offer To Yoenis Cespedes
Prior to the Mets’ re-signing of Yoenis Cespedes to a three-year, $75MM contract with an opt-out clause after the first season, the Nationals were viewed as the primary competitor for his services, offering a reported five-year deal with a value said to be around $100MM and an opt-out after two years. A pair of reports from Jon Heyman (Twitter link) and Peter Gammons of the MLB Network (at GammonsDaily.com) now shed some further light on the matter. According to Heyman, the base value of the contract was $110MM, but the deal contained “significant” deferrals. While that info alone makes it difficult to compare the two offers, Gammons adds further context, stating that the $110MM was to be paid out over a 15-year term, and after factoring in the deferred monies, the present-day value of the proposed contract was roughly $77MM.
If that number is indeed accurate, it’s not surprising to see that Cespedes chose a comparable amount over a shorter contract that contained an earlier opt-out date with a team/city with which he was already familiar. Of course, it should also be noted that the present-day value of any multi-year contract is somewhat less than the face value of the deal; the $47.5MM that Cespedes would earn from the Mets if he does not exercise the opt-out clause will be worth less in 2017-18 than it would be in the present day. Nevertheless, the extent of the deferrals in the contract proposed by the Nationals certainly appears to make the Mets’ offer a stronger option, barring further revelations about the pair of proposals.
As Gammons continues, the Nationals had to offer significant deferrals not only to Cespedes, but also to Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist in their respective pursuits, due largely to the structuring of the MASN television contract. Because of the deferred money in their offers to Heyward and Zobrist, neither proposed contract was even close to the overall value that the duo got when ultimately signing with the Cubs. In Heyward’s case, the Cardinals’ offer was also significantly stronger than the reported 10-year, $200MM contract proposed by the Nats, after factoring in deferrals, Gammons notes.
Per Gammons, the structuring of the MASN television rights required the Nats to offer significant deferrals in virtually all of their contract offers this winter. Back in November a New York Supreme Court Judge ruled in favor of the Orioles (the majority owners of MASN), thereby voiding a payment of tens of millions of dollars that had been awarded to the Nationals by an arbitration panel in an effort to settle an ongoing dispute over the allocation of the network’s rights fees. (MLBTR’s Jeff Todd examined the dispute at length at the time of the ruling.) As Gammons notes, the difficulties for the Nationals will continue to linger until the two teams can come to some type of resolution on the matter.
Yankees, Carlos Corporan Agree To Minor League Deal
The Yankees and catcher Carlos Corporan are in agreement on a minor league contract, reports SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (on Twitter). The 32-year-old MDR Sports Management client figures to compete with Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine to serve as the backup to Brian McCann in 2016.
After spending 2011-14 as a member of the Astros, Corporan was traded to the Rangers this past offseason. His first and now seemingly only year in Arlington didn’t go as well as his time with the Astros, as Corporan struggled to a .178/.244/.299 batting line in 121 plate appearances. Those hardships at the plate ultimately led the Rangers to non-tender Corporan in December. However, prior to that down season, Corporan had proven a capable bat for a backup catcher, batting .237/.297/.383 with 17 home runs in 485 plate appearances as an Astro from 2012-14.
From a defensive standpoint, Corporan has been a bit below average in throwing out runners over the course of his career, with a caught-stealing rate of 23 percent. From a framing perspective, Corporan has been anywhere from average to above-average across the past three seasons, according to both Baseball Prospectus and StatCorner.com. If Corporan finishes the season on the Yankees’ roster, the switch-hitter can be controlled through at least the 2017 season, as he currently has four years, 19 days of Major League service time.
Orioles Acquire Efren Navarro, Designate L.J. Hoes For Assignment
The Orioles have acquired first baseman/outfielder Efren Navarro from the Angels in exchange for cash considerations, the teams announced today. In order to clear a spot on the 40-man roster for Navarro, Baltimore announced that it has designated outfielder L.J. Hoes for assignment.
Navarro, 29, was designated for assignment last week to clear a roster spot in Anaheim for right-hander Al Alburquerque, who signed as a free agent. Navarro has seen Major League action with the Angels in four of the past five seasons, totaling a .246/.303/.324 batting line in 280 plate appearances. He’s hit just one home run in that time, though he’s shown a bit more pop in the minors, where he is a .316/.378/.449 hitter with 32 home runs in 2344 plate appearances at Triple-A. Navarro hasn’t hit much with the Angels, but he’s posted solid walk and strikeout rates (7.5 percent and 16.1 percent, respectively). He’s also graded out reasonably well in both Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved at first base and in left field in his small samples of work at each position.
Navarro will, presumably, join the competition for corner outfield playing time in Baltimore. The Orioles currently have Hyun-Soo Kim as one option (in left field — they’re said not to like his arm in right), with Nolan Reimold, Mark Trumbo, Henry Urrutia, Dariel Alvarez and Ryan Flaherty among the other options that could conceivably see some time in right field. Trumbo, of course, is best suited for first base or DH work, but he does have considerable experience in the outfield. As a left-handed bat, Navarro could conceivably pair with Reimold to form a platoon, should not additional outside option be brought in by GM Dan Duquette and his staff. That looks like somewhat of an uninspiring group, on paper, but the Orioles took a piecemeal approach to their corner outfield situation last season, creating some precedent for such measures, and the team has spent heavily in other areas, perhaps limiting its offseason spending capacity.
Hoes has had good success at the upper levels of the minor leagues, including a .299/.388/.399 batting line in parts of four seasons at the Triple-A level. The 25-year-old was originally a third-round pick by Baltimore back in 2008, though the O’s traded him to Houston in the 2013 Bud Norris swap. Hoes was designated for assignment by Houston this offseason, though, and picked up in a trade similar to today’s transaction back in November. In spite of his solid on-base percentage and batting average in Triple-A, Hoes has batted just .237/.289/.329 in 337 Major League plate appearances.
Free Agent Notes: Nats, Lazarito, Bell, O’s, Hunter, Mets
The Nationals have filed an interesting affidavit in their litigation against the Orioles (via MASN) relating to the arbitration on the value of their television rights fees, as James Wagner of the Washington Post notes. Seeking to help convince the judge to order the O’s back to a league-run arbitration panel, Washington owner Ed Cohen said of the lack of market-rate revenue: “[W]ithout this added and steady income, the Nationals cannot bring full economic confidence to investments in multi-year player contracts to keep up with the fierce competition for top players — especially when such control over finances is in the hands of a neighboring club.” It’s interesting to see some insight, however vague, into the team’s thinking on the matter, although it’s hard to know just how much impact there’s been in actuality on the team’s willingness and ability to offer contracts to free agents.
Here are some notes on a few free agents (or those who’ll soon formally join the open market):
- Intriguing young Cuban talent Lazaro Armenteros (aka “Lazarito”) expects to have a deal in place within the next two weeks, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. He’s in negotiations with some teams even as he finishes up workouts with others, says Rosenthal. The 16-year-old is seen as an intriguing athlete, though there have also been some less-than-sterling reviews.
- The showcase for Cuban outfielder Alexei Bell will now take place on February 15th in Mexico City, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports on Twitter. The veteran star is hoping to catch on with a major league organization.
- Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun takes a look at the Orioles‘ current possibilities for adding an outfielder. Dexter Fowler doesn’t seem to be an option, given the need to punt the club’s top draft pick, but he wonders whether Austin Jackson or a left-handed-hitting platoon option such as David Murphy or Will Venable could be in the cards. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com does the same with regard to starting pitching, providing an excellent breakdown of the internal possibilities and potential targets.
- Free agent reliever Tommy Hunter is still looking for a second guaranteed year, Rich Dubroff of CSNmidatlantic.com tweets. He’s certainly one of the better names left on a slowing relief market, though it might still be a tall order to reach a multi-year pact. Hunter has largely posted solid results since moving to the pen full-time, but struggled badly with the long ball late last year.
- At this point, the Mets are realistically only looking at relievers on minor league deals, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets. That makes sense, as the club already had to push a solid pitcher in Carlos Torres off of the roster after signing Antonio Bastardo.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Braves, Nationals, Padres Expected To Exceed 2016-17 International Pools
The Braves, Nationals, and Padres are all expected to bust their international spending allocations for the upcoming July 2 period, Ben Badler of Baseball America reports. With many other clubs serving the first or second year of their own bans on doling out $300K+ bonuses to pool-eligible players, and other organizations not heavily invested internationally, it appears these three clubs are prepared to enter the void.
As Badler explains, the teams don’t yet know exactly how much cash they’ll have to spread, but the general spending capacity won’t come as a surprise since it’s based on prior year’s record. Teams can also acquire individual spending allotments from other clubs via trade, and with many organizations unable to spend all of their slots, there should be plenty available. But a club can only increase its total allocation by 50%, so even adding in some new capacity presumably won’t keep the teams from avoiding the penalties.
The disincentive for going over the pool, of course, is a 100% tax on overages above 10% as well as up to a two-year timeout (after a 15% excess) on future bonuses of over $300K. But it’s long been expected that changes could be coming to the international amateur market — as commissioner Rob Manfred just addressed yesterday — and it’s certainly possible (but hardly certain) that budget-busting organizations won’t end up being handicapped under a new system.
Atlanta, especially, is expected to attack the market, per Badler. He says that the rebuilding organization is lining up a series of signings that could equal or exceed the Yankees’ spree from 2014-15. Their biggest targets are top-shelf infield prospect Kevin Maitan and fellow Venezuelan standout Abrahan Gutierrez, a catcher.
Meanwhile, the Nats are looking to build on their success at low-budget international signings with some real cash at their disposal. A pair of middle infielders — Dominican Yasel Antuna and Venezuelan Jose Sanchez — are near the top of their list.
Likewise, the Padres have not only been laying the groundwork for a series of deals with Dominican and Venezuelan players in the $1MM range, but are eyeing a major strike on the burgeoning market for young Cuban talent. Badler says that the San Diego organization is attempting to convince several players who may soon become free agents to wait for the new signing period to ink their deals.
Indians Agree To Two-Year Deal With Josh Tomlin
The Indians have reached a two-year contract extension with righty Josh Tomlin, Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer reports (Twitter links). The SSG Baseball client will receive a $5.5MM guarantee in the deal, which includes a club option for a third campaign.
Tomlin had already agreed to a $2.25MM, fully guaranteed salary for the coming season, and that remains intact. The new deal will buy up Tomlin’s first season of free agent eligibility and give the club a $3MM option (with a $750K buyout) on another.
The deal could top out at $12MM over three seasons. Tomlin is guaranteed the aforementioned $2.25MM, then a modest raise to $2.5MM for 2017 to go with the buyout on the option. He can also reach a variety of incentives in 2017 and 2018, potentially reaching $2MM per year, based on games started and innings pitched, Hoynes adds on Twitter.
It seems clear that Tomlin, 31, prioritized the maximization of guaranteed money after a strong showing in limited MLB action last year. He’s bounced up and down a fair bit, never quite sticking in the majors, and the opportunity to cash in was surely worth the sacrifice of some upside.
Tomlin worked 65 2/3 innings of 3.02 ERA pitching in his 10 starts in 2015, putting up a solid 7.8 K/9 and outstanding 1.1 BB/9 in that time. He benefited from a low BABIP and high strand rate, and continued to post low ground-ball rates and a troubling predilection to the long ball, but xFIP and SIERA still quite liked the effort. Furthermore, the 2015 campaign marked the second straight season in which Tomlin showed a newfound ability to record strikeouts at an above-average rate. Tomlin’s career 4.9 K/9 rate jumped to 8.1 in 2014, and he was able to sustain much of the improvement in that area this past season.
Anything approaching that output would make this contract a clear win for the Indians. The club is locking in a low rate of pay for a useful pitcher who could factor in the rotation or the pen. And adding a year of non-committed, cheap control is a rare chance. While Tomlin lacks a clear track record of major league success, it’s a relatively easy bet to make for the club.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Latest On Rockies Outfielders
With Gerardo Parra on board, the Rockies have four left-handed-hitting outfielders. A trade may not be inevitable, but it isn’t hard to see how one would make sense, particularly given that Colorado is still in need of pitching. Here’s the latest:
- It may be that Corey Dickerson, rather than Carlos Gonzalez or Charlie Blackmon, could be the likeliest player to be traded, a report from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports suggests (Twitter links). There’s a sense from some in the game, he says, that the 26-year-old may be on the move this winter, due in part to the fact that he might not cost as much as his more established teammates.
- Though he hasn’t even yet cracked 1,000 MLB plate appearances, Dickerson does appear to offer the greatest value upside of the three trade candidates. That’s due in large part to the fact that he’s cheaper and subject to greater control than are the other two. But he also has shown some serious potential with the bat, putting up a .299/.345/.534 slash that is quite impressive even with Coors Field as a home park. On the other hand, defensive metrics haven’t been in love with his glove.
- As Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported, and Rosenthal echoes, the Rays are still involved in chatter with Colorado. Topkin adds that he believes left-handed reliever Jake McGee could be the key name involved in talks from Tampa Bay’s side. That’s certainly an interesting development, as the Rockies have already done some bullpen work this winter and seem more in need of rotation help. Of course, there’s still room for improvement there and McGee is a premium arm. Notably, too, Topkin adds that the addition of Dickerson would likely force the Rays to pursue additional moves.
Free Agent Faceoff: Ian Desmond vs. Howie Kendrick
If your club is in need of some veteran middle infield talent, the market begins with two names: Ian Desmond and Howie Kendrick. The former is a shortstop and the latter a second baseman, and neither has really spent much big league time at other positions, so they aren’t exactly direct competitors. But it’s still interesting to consider which qualifying offer-bound free agent is best situated to cash in at this stage of the winter.
It long seemed like Desmond would be the more hotly pursued of the two players. He offers a rare power/speed combination for a shortstop and has been one of the game’s most valuable players at the position — including a .264/.317/.443 slash and over twenty home runs per season — since breaking out in 2012.
Desmond is also a more valuable defender than most realize. He’s received average metrics, give or take, with his strong range and powerful arm helping to make up for a steady helping of errors. And Desmond is not only a solid stolen base threat, but a highly-rated overall baserunner.
At 30 years of age, the highly-respected Desmond seems well-situated to cash in. There’s no denying that 2015 was a down year. After rating as a 3.5 to 4.5 WAR player for each of the three prior seasons, Desmond accumulated just 2.0 rWAR and 1.7 fWAR as he struggled at the plate and in the field. On the other hand, that doesn’t look like a terrible downside scenario, and the highly athletic veteran ought to age well physically. I predicted he’d have to settle for $70MM to secure a fifth guaranteed year, while MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes felt he could reach $80MM over that term.
Kendrick is a bit older at 32, and plays the less valuable position defensively. But if Desmond feels like a player whose upside comes with some risk, then Kendrick seems to be a steadier option — at least at the plate.
While he’s never put up a monster offensive season, Kendrick owns a .289/.332/.418 slash since becoming a full-time regular in 2010. And he’s never strayed too far from that line: Kendrick has been a more-or-less league-average or better hitter in each of the last nine seasons. While he’s more of a 10/10 than a 20/20 type, he has topped out at 18 home runs and 14 stolen bases.
Kendrick has generally been a steady defender, with most of his campaigns ending in the black in the estimation of UZR and DRS, though he did slip in that regard last year. His baserunning isn’t an asset, overall, but isn’t a hindrance either.
In the aggregate, Kendrick offers reasonable expectations of being a quality, first-division regular. And when the stars have aligned, as in 2011 and 2014, he’s been even more than that. He ended 2015 with injury issues, and while they don’t figure to linger, that did seem to take some momentum out of his market. Dierkes predicted that Kendrick would be able to score four years and $50MM on the open market.
As always, demand is critical. We’ve heard varying degrees of interest from various clubs in both players. But clearly, neither has been targeted as strongly as might have been hoped. Then again, while there’s always a danger for a player of the music stopping with no chairs left, both Desmond and Kendrick seem to have plausible landing spots. The question, though, is how much leverage they’ll have to command the deals that were originally expected.
So, which player do you think is the more valuable free agent asset as things stand in the market?
Who'll Earn More in Free Agency: Ian Desmond or Howie Kendrick?
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Ian Desmond 70% (5,209)
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Howie Kendrick 30% (2,183)
Total votes: 7,392