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A World Series hangover led to a surprising 43-45 record from the Cubs in the first half of the season. The club rallied to 49-25 in the second half and just barely pulled off an NLDS win over the Nationals. The Dodgers then dispatched the Cubs fairly easily in the NLCS, marking Chicago’s third straight appearance in the second round of the playoffs. The Cubs are poised for an active winter, with an outfield logjam and major needs in the rotation and bullpen.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Jason Heyward, RF: $147.5MM through 2023. Heyward can opt out of contract after 2018 season or after 2019 season with 550 plate appearances in 2019.
- Jon Lester, SP: $85MM through 2020. Includes $25MM mutual option for 2021 with a $10MM buyout. 2021 option becomes guaranteed with 200 innings in 2020 or 400 innings in 2019-20.
- Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF: $28MM through 2019.
- Anthony Rizzo, 1B: $21MM through 2019. Includes $16.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout for 2020 and an identical club option for 2021. 2019 salaries can increase based on MVP finishes. Rizzo can void 2021 option with top two finish in 2017-19 MVP voting and subsequent trade.
- Jose Quintana, SP: $9.85MM through 2018. Includes $10.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout for 2019 and an identical club option for 2020.
- Pedro Strop, RP: $6.35MM through 2018. Includes $6.25MM club option with a $500K buyout for 2019.
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)
- Justin Wilson (5.035) – $4.3MM
- Hector Rondon (5.000) – $6.2MM
- Justin Grimm (4.162) – $2.4MM
- Kyle Hendricks (3.081) – $4.9MM
- Tommy La Stella (3.072) – $1.0MM
- Kris Bryant (2.171) – $8.9MM
- Addison Russell (2.167) – $2.3MM
- Non-tender candidates: Rondon, Grimm
Free Agents
- Jake Arrieta, Wade Davis, John Lackey, Jon Jay, Koji Uehara, Alex Avila, Brian Duensing, Rene Rivera
[Chicago Cubs Depth Chart; Chicago Cubs Payroll Overview]
The Cubs swung a huge, surprising trade with their crosstown rivals in July, sending four prospects to the White Sox for lefty starter Jose Quintana. Since the Cubs control Quintana through 2020, this deal was as much about the future as the present. Quintana adds innings and stability to a rotation that also includes Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks. Lester and Hendricks are controlled through 2020 as well. Jake Arrieta and John Lackey combined for 60 regular season starts for the Cubs this year, and both are now free agents. Quintana helped prepare for the possible departure of Arrieta, but the Cubs still need to replace 40% of their rotation.
Signing Arrieta is certainly an option. The righty, 32 in March, famously resurrected his career after a 2013 trade to the Cubs. Back in March, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports wrote that “the belief is that [the Cubs] wouldn’t go more than four years [on a new contract for Arrieta], if that.” Around that time, the idea was floated by Arrieta and his agent Scott Boras that a six or seven-year deal would be appropriate. Even then I found five years much more likely. Arrieta went on to post a decent season, but we’ve perhaps become the low man on him, projecting a four-year contract. If we’re right, then maybe the Cubs and Arrieta can match up after all. However, I wouldn’t expect Arrieta to sign a four-year deal in November or December. Given where Boras was at earlier this year, four years seems possible only if Arrieta’s market disappoints, and he signs in January or February. The Cubs may not be able to keep enough powder dry into the new year to pay Arrieta $25MM a year, even if the term comes down to four years.
Free agency offers an alternative in Yu Darvish. Darvish is only 163 days younger than Arrieta, and he has Tommy John surgery on his résumé. We’re projecting a six-year, $160MM deal for Darvish, a contract similar to the one the Cubs gave Lester three years ago. I think the Cubs could look past Darvish’s pair of World Series bombs, but president Theo Epstein was noncommittal, saying regarding high-priced free agent pitching, “I wouldn’t rule it out completely, and I wouldn’t rule it in. I would just say it’s not our preferred method.” Of course, paying baseball players $25MM+ per year is not the preferred method of any team. Would the Cubs prefer the devil they know with Arrieta, or would they prefer a megadeal for Darvish?
Quite possibly, it’s neither. The Cubs seem likely to pursue one front-rotation arm and one lesser starting pitcher, and they are expected to explore the trade market. The only established top of the rotation starting pitcher who projects to be available this winter is Chris Archer of the Rays. Former Cubs GM Jim Hendry deftly acquired Archer from the Indians in the 2008 Mark DeRosa trade, only to ship him to Tampa Bay two years later in the Matt Garza deal. Archer, 29, has made 32 starts in each of the last four seasons, displaying a dominant strikeout rate and earning two All-Star nods in that time. The hard-throwing righty is on a team-friendly contract through 2021, so the Rays have no reason to force a trade this offseason. The Cubs already spent their best remaining prospects in the Quintana deal, and would have to subtract from the Major League roster to have a shot at Archer. It remains to be seen how willing the Cubs are to deal from their starting middle infield to acquire someone like Archer, which would lead to a defensive downgrade at second base for Chicago with some combination of Ian Happ and Ben Zobrist.
From the Rays’ point of view, would Addison Russell or Javier Baez be enough to lead a package for Archer? Both players have four years of control remaining, same as Archer, and Russell is already eligible for arbitration. The Rays might prefer a headliner with six years of control remaining, like Yoan Moncada in the Chris Sale trade. Russell took a step backward in performance this year, also facing a divorce and a domestic abuse allegation. Baez seems the more valuable asset, a player with star potential if he can rein in some of the swing-and-miss. However, the Rays already have Willy Adames, a shortstop who is big league ready and is rated #15 among all prospects by MLB.com. Russell or Baez might not be enough, and might not be the right fit for the Rays either. The Cubs have run out of Top 100 prospects to deal, but could complement a trade with 50-grade prospects, including a few with big league experience in Victor Caratini and Mark Zagunis. While some kind of position player for pitcher swap between the Cubs and Rays has been discussed by fans and executives for years, the Cubs will face stiff competition from other teams if the Rays listen on Archer.
The Cubs also have left fielder Kyle Schwarber as a primary trade chip, whether for a mid-level starting pitcher or a reliever. Schwarber, 25 in March, is a player the Cubs have always liked more than most since they drafted him fourth overall in 2014. Finally given a full season in the Majors after last year’s ACL tear, Schwarber was used as a platoon bat after a rough April, and even his big league success after a June Triple-A demotion (131 wRC+) has to take into account that he only faced southpaws 16.4% of the time. With donning catching gear seemingly in the rearview for Schwarber, the pessimistic view is that he’s a platoon bat without a position. Certainly, to trade Schwarber now would be selling low, though opening up left field for Happ full-time would alleviate the logjam and may improve the outfield defense. Schwarber would be a better fit in the American League, where he could learn first base and spend time at designated hitter. Danny Salazar, Kendall Graveman, Matt Andriese, Collin McHugh, and Jake Odorizzi are a few speculative trade targets. These names are not nearly as exciting as they would have been a year ago had the Cubs shopped Schwarber. The Cubs may well set a price on Schwarber higher than Odorizzi or McHugh, who are only under control for two more years.
The Cubs could also consider putting their faith in Schwarber and trading Happ, who they drafted ninth overall in 2015. The 23-year-old switch-hitter would be a very valuable trade chip after a promising rookie debut; he’s still under team control for six more years. The Cubs have yet to settle on a position for Happ, who appeared at all three outfield positions as well as second base in 2017. He seems less likely to be moved than Schwarber. Albert Almora Jr. also seems unlikely to be traded. While Epstein won’t quite pencil Almora in as next year’s starting center fielder, he has at least pledged an increased role.
Free agency offers the Cubs a slew of mid-level or worse options if they don’t want to pony up for Darvish. Alex Cobb is a name to consider, especially since he played under Cubs manager Joe Maddon and his new pitching coach, Jim Hickey. The Cubs are also intimately familiar with Lance Lynn, who started against them 18 times in his career as a member of the Cardinals. Last year, the Cubs made a run at Tyson Ross before settling for Brett Anderson as their fifth starter, and they could look to fill out the fifth starter spot again with a one-year bounceback guy like Chris Tillman, Clay Buchholz, or Jeremy Hellickson.
The ideal candidate for the Cubs’ rotation, of course, is 23-year-old righty Shohei Otani. If MLB, the players’ union, Nippon Professional Baseball, and the Nippon Ham Fighters are able to reach an agreement, Otani may make the leap to MLB despite being subject to international bonus pool restrictions. While Cubs fans are surely dreaming of Otani pitching every fifth day and patrolling the Wrigley outfield on some of his off days, the Cubs are one of a dozen teams capped at $300K in the potential bidding. Many other teams are able to bid more than ten times as much (the theoretical maximum is about $10MM), although Otani would be leaving hundreds of millions of dollars on the table either way. Like every team, the Cubs will have to do a hell of a marketing job to win Otani’s heart if he’s posted, and they can’t build their offseason around him to any degree.
The Cubs will surely cast a wide net for starting pitching, but they also have ample work to do on their bullpen. By the end of the postseason, it seemed that Maddon only trusted closer Wade Davis. The Cubs may make a run at Davis, which would involve holding their noses and giving him a four-year deal. Having shown no interest in past free agent closers such as Kenley Jansen and David Robertson, I’m guessing this is again not Epstein’s “preferred method.” Rather than give Davis or Greg Holland $15MM a year, the Cubs could get two very good relievers for a similar price, in a free agent market featuring Addison Reed, Mike Minor, Brandon Morrow, Jake McGee, and other quality names. If the Cubs hit the trade market for a late inning reliever, they could pursue Alex Colome, Raisel Iglesias, Brad Hand, Zach Britton, Dellin Betances, Joakim Soria, or Kelvin Herrera. Aside from Davis, the Cubs could also consider retaining free agent lefty Brian Duensing, who had a resurgent year for them on a $2MM contract and will be seeking a raise.
The holdovers in the Cubs’ bullpen include righties Carl Edwards Jr. and Pedro Strop and lefties Mike Montgomery and Justin Wilson. The Cubs have Hector Rondon and his projected $6.2MM salary as well, but he’s fallen far enough out of favor that I expect them to move him in a salary dump trade. Justin Grimm, with a $2.4MM projection, could also get the boot. Like Quintana, Wilson was acquired in a summer trade with a partial eye on the future. The 30-year-old southpaw has a $4.3MM salary projection, and was expected to play a key role in the Cubs’ 2018 bullpen at the time of his acquisition. Wilson was hammered in 17 2/3 innings with the Cubs, allowing 38 baserunners in that span with horrible control. The Cubs will try to get him back into form, but can hardly count on him. This bullpen probably needs three or more outside additions this winter.
On the position player side, the Cubs’ needs are minimal. A veteran backup catcher behind Willson Contreras would be helpful, filling the shoes of free agent Alex Avila. The Cubs already have 24-year-old Victor Caratini as an option for that role, though some teams prefer a veteran presence. Outfielder Jon Jay is also a free agent. If Schwarber is dealt, the Cubs can still fill out their outfield with Ian Happ, Albert Almora, Jason Heyward, and Ben Zobrist. Since Happ and Zobrist will likely play some second base, a veteran backup outfielder could be added to replace Jay.
How much can the Cubs spend to fill these needs? Assuming Rondon and Grimm are gone, the Cubs will be paying about $106MM to 18 players, eight of whom are pre-arbitration. The Cubs’ biggest pain points are Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist, a pair that provided 1.2 wins above replacement in 2017 and will be paid $37.5MM in 2018. There is little to be done with those two, who both have full no-trade protection for 2018 and negative trade value anyway. Heyward and Zobrist were generally treated as starting players this year, and both should enter 2018 with reduced playing time expectations. The Cubs seem capable of a $180MM payroll, and despite the large salaries of Jon Lester, Heyward, and Zobrist, might be able to spend as much as $70MM on new 2018 player salaries.
The Cubs remain an immensely talented team. They’ve got affordable star position players in Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Willson Contreras, none of whom will earn a $10MM salary in 2018. That core is complemented by some combination of Baez, Russell, Happ, Almora, and Schwarber, depending on who is traded this winter. While the rotation needs serious work, Hendricks proved his 2016 season was no fluke, Lester continues to provide value, and Quintana is a younger, cheaper version of Lester. Still, there is significant work to be done this winter, much more than last winter. “We knew that the 2017-2018 offseason would be one of our most challenging,” Epstein told reporters in an October press conference. For the first time under Epstein, the Cubs enter an offseason with both significant holes to fill and sky-high expectations.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Here comes another 108 year drought!
How clever. Did you think of that one all by yourself?
So they are going to a $250 mil payroll for next year AND all the young guns are coming up to be resigned in the next couple of years also? OK!
$106 million (current payroll) plus $70 million is $176 million.. Add benefits and insurance and they will still be under the luxury tax.. I am not sure where you are getting the $250 million number from..
They have a new TV deal coming in 2019… They’re expecting a huge haul.
Jason Heyward, RF: $147.5MM through 2023. Heyward can opt out of contract after 2018 season or after 2019 season with 550 plate appearances in 2019.
lolol
Yea, even if he posted an amazing 2018 season, everyone knows his propensity to be a different player every year. He isn’t going to get a better deal than what he already has.
Heyward would have to have a very good 2018 followed by an excellent 2019 (and enough plate appearances to qualify for his option out) to generate serious interest. It isn’t out of the realm of possibilities but it sure isn’t likely either.
No one wants Heyward for the price left on the contract after 18. 0 chance he opts out
You are absolutely correct which is why I SPECIFICALLY worded my reply the way I did. While the current version of Heyward would never get more on the open market than he did I was just looking hypothetically (even if the chance is minimal). Let’s say Heyward hits .285 with 25 homers in 2018 AND follows it up with a stellar 2019 where he hits .300 and 35 homers still playing excellent D. In that case I promise some team would over pay thinking he finally developed into the monster some thought he might one day be.
Watch out for unicorns if that happens.
Gold star for that one…⭐️
LOL. Look I definitely don’t think that Heyward will get his swing right, but no one thought Chris Taylor would develop the power stroke he did and no one expected Charlie Morton to significantly increase his velocity. Heyward still is in his prime and some “experts” thought based on his minor league career Heyward could eventually be a 30+ dinger hitter a year. That hasn’t happened yet, but there is a non zero chance he could. As I thought I implied above I certainly don’t expect him to take a jump in production but for some one to say there is a zero chance of it is ludicrous.
Why the Cubs decided to give all that money to a 6 ‘ 5″ singles hitter is beyond my understanding. Will go down in Baseball history as the worlds largest singles hitter – and not a very good one a that.
Not to be out-done by the world’s tallest doubles hitter – Derrek Lee. I believe we’re moving towards an 18’5″ triples machine that gets to third by rounding second and falling over.
He had put up two 6+ bWAR seasons in a row. and was entering FA in what appeared to be the prime of his career.
Betances + filler for Schwarber seems about right.. Cashman was said to have a man crush on Schwarber last year and wouldn’t trade Miller to the Cubs without his inclusion. (reportedly).. The Yankees have plenty of intriguing prospects that should interest Epstein.. I really wish they would have traded Miller for Happ though.. So far, he has proven to be superior to Frazier.. My pleas fell on def ears though..
Where are all of the posters who routinely scolded me for not believing Heyward was worth a $100 million dollar contract, let alone one approaching $200 million? I doubt he would get 4/$56 this offseason..
The Miller trade not only brought Frazier but also netted Justus Sheffield. That’s way better…come-on-man
Betances is worth more then just Schwarber…
Gotta be some serious filler. Schwarber’s value is way down. He hasn’t shown he can hit for a good average, get on base, or have ok fielding. He’s only good for the long ball. Yea, he’s only 25, and still got room for improvement, but right now, he isn’t worth too much.
He only has 1 full season under his belt and was fast tracked through the minors. Plus, last year he was still recovering from a major knee injury. Give him a lil bit of time. His minor league numbers are better than just about any big mlb bat that I’ve looked at.
Yes, I understand this is his first full season, but didn’t show anything too impressive in that first full season, outside of power.
First off, I think yankees still have no facial hair policy, Schwarbs has facial hair! Secondly the filler was recommended as a addition to schwarber for Betances.
Try looking at his OBP this year then you may rethink your statement. He has a nice future ahead regardless.
Schwarber has no trade value, this coming from a Cubs fan. Cubs fans are an embarrassment the more the talk about the trade that will never happen with Schwarber. Cubs would be lucky to get a bag of donuts for him.
No interest in a guy who can hit 30 homers in his sleep?
LoL. Betances for Schwarber.
Wait for it……….
Schwarber trade bait AND ONLY FOR A MID-LOW LEVEL STARTER OR RELIEVER
Wait for it……….
The sound you here are Cubs fans heads exploding everywhere!!!
hear
My head will explode like the guy in Scanners if Kyle is traded. Before that happens, my guess is that Happ or Russell will be swapped for an impact arm simply because they have more value right now. My preference is to keep all the young bats. Gives Joe something to do on his Ipad over a glass of wine next summer.
“Scanners” great old school movie reference..
I don’t think Schwarber alone would bring back very much. They’re farm is kinda average, after trading for Quintana. They have prospects, just no top prospects(ie. someone like Jimenez). I’d spend on a free agent starter like Darvish, Lynn, or Cobb, and try and trade Schwarber+mid-level prospect for an ok relief pitcher. You’re not going to get an ace relief guy out of Schwarber+prospects.
Schwarber in Yankee Stadium sure sounds scary. The Cubs have to see that Schwarber just can’t play the outfield in the major leagues. He’d be pretty bad at first even if Rizzo wasn’t already there. The guy has DH all over him.
I don’t see any reason to conclude that he’d be a poor defensive first baseman, if given time to learn the position.
Scott Hatteberg: I’ve only ever played Catcher.
Billy Beane: It’s not that hard, Scott. Tell him, Wash.
Ron Washington:It’s incredibly hard.
And that team set a record for consecutive wins…
Indians
Sorry disregard previous post…
Schwarber has ZERO value on defense, if not negative value. He is slow and awkward. Chris Carter tied for the NL lead in home runs in 2016 with 41. He also had an OPS of .821 (compared to Schwarber’s .782) while playing 160 games in the NL, which does not have a DH, in his walk season. What did that net him? A part time 1b/DH role in the AL after being non-tendered by Milwaukee. That alone should tell you the value of Schwarber in other teams eyes. I will never understand the love affair Cubs fans have with this guy. He is simply the definition of a one-tool player.
OPS is dumb. It weighs OBP and SLG the same when OBP is more valuable. Don’t get me wrong – Schwarber did not have a great year with the bat. But OPS is dumb.
Spoken like a true Cubs fan
Crazy comment Tim. Bias much? OPS is huge for a player like Kyle Schwarber. His OPS+ was 99. That is putrid.
I’m hoping for a trade if Schwarber and Almora or Happ for a front end starter with at least two years of control. Then, I’d love for the Cubs to go after Lorenzo Cain if he can be had at no more than a 4 year contract.
I️ suggested it before on here but was torn to shreds for it, but I️ think Almora and Happ (plus other smaller pieces) is around what it would take for the Cubs to get Archer.
Price seems about right, but that leaves them with a hole in CF that they would have to fill. Could always slide over Heyward, but I think they’d prefer to deal Russell or Baez than Almora.
The thing with Russel and Baez is that they are not controllable for longer than Archer is. Only Happ doesn’t get it done and then have no one else to throw in that could beat what other teams could give them in terms of blue chip prospects. Happ and Almora of no Archer.
Wow. I didn’t know that this team was in this much of flux. I mean, I think everyone understands the Baez/Schwarber home run or nothing output, but considering the fact that they have 3 decent but not great SP in Lester, Quintana, and Hendricks, and no true “ace”, plus another solid 4/5 SP needed, the re-vamp of that bullpen will be a second priority. That is scary, considering how much help they need in the bullpen.
Lester/Hendricks/Quintana are studs. Hendricks was second in cy yoing voting last year. Quintana puts up 4 war every season. Lester is one of the best postseason pitchers in modern history.
Better than 90% of rotations. Plus Cubs have soooo much money to spend.
Is that why they’re letting Arrieta walk? SMDH
50mm of the 70mm for filling the major holes after Jake Arrieta, Wade Davis, John Lackey are gone. 20mm and the poor farm for bullpen holes and other improvements. Not so bad actually. Cubs can come back strong.
Kyle Schwarber for Danny Salazar!
No thank you. As a cubs fan, I’ll hold out and give Schwarber more than just one full season. An injury recovery season at that.
The old give him one more year approach. Guy was slow and out of place defensively before the injury,now just horrendous.
This team badly needs pitching. Aside from Davis, they can clean out that ENTIRE bullpen, as far as I’m concerned.
Also, they need two quality starters. They have hitting, but it doesn’t exactly make bats come alive, when they know they need to score at least 5 runs per game, in order to win.
Get the pitching, and everything falls into place.
Schwarber has got to be one of the most overrated players in the last decade.
Agreed. The cub fans want a one on one swap for the best prospect but there’s no chance a decent GM would make a trade close to anything like that.
Are Cubs fans really saying that? Or are you just talking about trolls and people making claims that Cubs fans perception of Schwarber is unrealistic? Seems to be most fans are pretty realistic in that right now his value is low and Cubs best option is to hold onto him in hopes he builds some value. Seems pretty logical to me.
No, we’re realists. He is no where near his ceiling, and we’ve all witnessed spurts of what he can do. Unfortunately, we have only 1 full season to go by, and he was recovering from a major knee injury. If we trade him for middle relief (as many on here feel he’s worth) we are selling below firesale prices. The Cubs have no reason to do that. He may end up being a bust, but his college, minor league numbers, and small streaks here and there in the bigs, say otherwise.
Personally, I’d rather keep Schwarber and let him phase out into DFA material than to trade him for a 4th starter or 7th inning guy , only to watch him hit 50 bombs for the Yankees one day.
Is that you KyleSchwarbersmom?
Bravo. Logical and nicely stated.
He was coming back from a severe knee injury, and his second half was MUCH better than his first. Which obviously indicate that things are falling back into place.
If the Cubs don’t get quite a bit better at developing their own pitching, the Cubs are screwed long-term.
I’ve broken this down and it isn’t nearly as “dire” as sports writers are making it out to be. First off, they don’t “have” to trade anybody to fill in their needs pitching-wise. ONLY person I would want to see them trade is Zobrist, and not because I think he is a bum but because he is clogging up playing time at a few positions from younger, better players like Baez, Almora, and now Happ. Trade Zobrist to the Braves or Phillies, teams early in the process of rebuilding (and struggling to rebuild) who need solid veteran leadership. Zobrist is that guy for them. He is owed quite a bit of money for a glorified platoon/utility player though, so I trade him just for the sake of trading him….. maybe get just cash in the form on international signing money or just a PTBNL….. I’d pretty much take just about anything.
SO, other than that trade, pretty much the entire offense is returning and will return for the next several years. Here’s what MY position player roster would look like if I were calling the shots.
2018 lineup
CF Almora
2B Happ
3B Bryant
1B Rizzo
C Contreras
LF Schwarber
RF Heyward
SS Russell/Baez
Bench
C/1B Caratini
2B/SS Russell/Baez (whoever isn’t starting
2B/3B La Stella (quite possibly one of the most under appreciated players not only on this team but in MLB. Dude has hit .280 with like a .370 OBP the last 2 years in very limited play. He raked in the minors. On pretty much any other team he’d be or at least competing for a starting gig at 2B. On the Cubs…… he’s like the 25th man on the roster)
OF Leonys Martin…. they just released him so they’d now have to “re-sign” him. He made $4.8+ in 2017. No one really wanted him last year and the fact he was released by the Cubs tells me when he elects free agency he’ll likely sign a ML deal for 1 year around $4M TOPS $5M. If not that maybe only a minor league deal will be offered to him. Either way, he’s a solid 4th/5th OFer (Happ can also play the OF) and he’d be cheap. He is also a stellar baserunner who plays solid OF defense…… great dude to have on your bench IMO.
So that’s the offense….. pretty damn solid. I mean this was a “sluggish” year for this offense supposedly……. yet they scored 822 runs…. 4th most in MLB, while hitting in the middle of the pack in terms of team BA at .255 (16th in MLB I believe), but they had the 4th best team OBP in 2017 at .338. 7th best team slugging % at .437, and 6th best team OPS at .775………. and that was a sluggish season – I can’t wait until they’re firing on all cylinders then according to sports “experts” and writers. Because what would that look like? 900-1,000 runs scored, a team .280 BA, .370 OBP, 300 HRs, and a team OPS of .850? haha. Seriously, overall the Cubs had probably a top 5 offense in 2017…… yet it was sluggish. I don’t agree with that adjective, though I will say I do think this offense wasn’t nearly as good as it could be. Contreras missed significant time during the season, Heyward still hasn’t shown his abilities with the bat he showed in years prior to becoming a Cub (not asking for much…. just want him to be that .265-.270 hitter with a .340-.350 OBP he used to be seemingly year in and year out prior to coming to Chicago…… we don’t need him to have that 20+ HR power to return….. just hit the d**n ball and get on base. And then Schwarber struggled in the first half in his first full ML season…….. “struggled” despite bashing 30 HRs in only like 422 ABs. He hit .253 in the 2nd half though and owned a respectable .335 OBP and a stellar .894 OPS…. so yeah…. he was trending up in the 2nd half for sure. I expect him to be Aaron Judge like in 2018…… just unlike Judge who SUCKED in the 2nd half (as I predicted, because he never hit for average in the minors) Schwabrer should be more consistent. A .270-.280 BA and an OBP in the .400 neighborhood is DEFINITELY attainable for Schwarber. If he hits at that level 45 HRs should be pretty easy for him to accumulate. Schwarber’s swing is too flawless and his plate discipline is too solid for him to be a .210 hitter with a .315 OBP. Then if Happ builds off his rookie campaign he’ll be friggin insane in this offense too. I mean as a rookie he hit what, .255 with a .330 OBP and belted 25 HRs in only about 360 ABs…… AS A ROOKIE!!! I’m not going to say Happ has 35-40 HR power, but for comparison, Bryant in his Rookie year had 559 ABs and hit 27 HRs…… yeah. Happ always had a high ceiling but he might have raised it a bit after his 2017 display. So if he builds off his rookie season and is a bit better…. da**….. this team’s starting 8 are friggin insane. 6 of the 8 (7 of 9 if you count both Baez and Russell who each have at least 20_+ HR power) have 25 or more HR power.
ANYWAYS, I think I made my point about how stupidly awesome this offense is.
Now on to the “issues” that need to be addressed. First off, a current rotation headed by Lester, Hendricks, and Quintana is already better than most rotations in MLB and that’s with the 4th and 5th spot empty. That said, they have 2 options. They CAN afford Arrieta, it just depends on if they WANT to bring back Arrieta. And when I say they can afford him, I’m not saying they can afford him only on their terms, they could literally pay him whatever he wants and they’d still be sitting pretty payroll-wise. How? Lackey, Montero, and if they trade Zobrist that’s about $46.5M coming off the books. Arrieta made $15+M last year. So if they offered him, say, a 4 year deal worth….. $125M that’s an INSANE $31.25M AAV…. or about a $16M pay raise for Arrieta…… leaving $30 M to spend elsewhere still and that’s assuming they don’t want to exceed their 2017 ≈$175M team payroll. Sign some “2nd chance” or “3rd chance starter” needing to get a fresh start from where he is currently to be your 5th starter….. you know, someone like….. Doug Fister….. or bring Trevor Cahill back to be the 5th starter…. he had a solid year in SD… not so much in KC. OR have that Korean kid they already have pitch as the 5th starter. Then use the remaining $20 or so million they’d have left to have a $175M team payroll to sign 3 relievers in the $6M AAV range.
This route their pitching would be something like
Lester
Arrieta
Quintana
Hendricks
Tseng/Fister/Cahill/some other cheap free agent
The bullpen would be something like
FA signed Mike Minor
FA signed Addison Reed
FA signed Jake McGee
RP Strop
RP Edwards
RP Rondon
RP Montgomery
RP Justin Wilson…… I guess….. he sucked MAJOR balls last year though. Don’t really get the hype around him that there was at the trade deadline this past season. from 2014-2016 with the tigers he had a 3.81 ERA as a reliever…. why were people hyping this dude up? He’s average at best)
All things considered, this is an improved bullpen. No clear cut closer, but I think Mike Minor could be an intriguing candidate. He quietly had a stellar return season as a reliever for the Royals this past year. Competition for the closer spot would be between IMO Reed, Edwards, Minor, and Rondon……. who was a GOOD CLOSER before Maddon got here and decided for some reason he wasn’t “good enough.” This team payroll would add up to be about $175-185M…… pretty much what it was in 2017 if not a hair higher. Oh yeah, and I forgot to subtract the $10M Davis was getting in 2017….. so this payroll would be more like exactly what it was in 2017 if not LOWER. I’ll say this once…… it’s not like Ricketts and the Cubs are short on cash. They are OOZING cash out of every crevasse. And this is before they strike their new TV deal here in a couple of years or they might create their own “Cubs Network” TV station….. whatever they do they are about to come into a TON of cash on top of the pile of cash they already have. This team could easily afford to be right up there with the Yanks, Dodgers, Red Sox, and Surprisingly the Tigers who all had $200+M payrolls just about in 2017….. in the case of the Dodgers about $250M.
That’s one route they can go for pitching. I on the other hand would like to see them go this route. This will be utilizing MLBTR’s free agent contract projections.
Trade Zobrist like the above scenario to get rid of his salary which in 2018 will be like $16.5M (in the last year of his current deal which is 2019 I believe he is due $12.5M so it does lower….. overall he has $29M left on his deal for the next 2 seasons, or a $14.5M AAV). Lackey, Montero, and Arrieta come off the books, that’s $45M freed up in addition to the $16.5 they would’ve paid Zobrist so a total of $61.5-$62M is off the books. Re-sign Wade Davis to the projected deal by MLBTR….. I think it is like a 4 year $60M deal…. or a $15M AAV. Go out and Sign BOTH Lynn and Cobb. I think MLBTR projected them to combine for about $26M (Lynn on a $14M AAV and Cobb around $12M AAV). That leaves about $21M to address more bullpen help. Again, like before, sign Addison Reed to I think the $8-9M AAV MLBTR projected. Sign Minor to I think a $7M AAV. And then sign McGee to I think also $7M AAV. Yes, I can math and those 3 add up to $23M not $21….. are you really going to fret over a $2M increase in team payroll from 2017?
SO IN THIOS SECOND AND PREFERRED SCENARIO the Cubs team I run would look like this
Same lineup and bench as first scenario
Rotation
Lester
Hendricks
Quintana
Lynn
Cobb
Bullpen
CL Davis
RP Reed
LRP Minor
RP Strop
RP Edwards
RP Rondon
LRP McGee
LRP Montgomery
That bullpen is full of closer/setup man quality relievers AND has THREE left handed pitchers in it. THIS bullpen is quite possibly one of the best in baseball at least on paper. Definitely should be a top 5 at the very least. This also allows the Cubs to release the OVERRATED Justin Wilson, so those fretting about my $2M overage from the 2017 Payroll…… cut Wilson and his projected $2.5M he’ll get in arbitration. ALSO subtract Justin Grimm’s money too because I would release him as well and hope to sign him to a minor league deal. This bullpen is also pretty versatile. Not only can Montgomery be stretched out to make some spot starts should a starter get injured, but so can Mike Minor who is a recently converted starter into a reliever.
And to top it all off, this still solid rotation and MUCH improved bullpen route would likely cost the team LESS in payroll than their 2017 squad did. This is mainly because they would be losing a lot of deadweight and pricey contracts that never produced to the level they were getting paid…. Lackey $16M, Zobrist $14.5M on average (sorry, glorified utility players or “platoon” players as they’re called today aren’t worth 8 figure salaries), and Montero’s $14M in 2017 to be a disgruntled backup catcher (how the F&*^ can a backup catcher be as pissy as Montero was when he’s getting paid top tier starting catcher money…. to be a friggin backup catcher who starts only 40-50 games a year. IMO that’s the best deal in MLB if I were him, haha…. I’d thrilled. Sit on my a$$ all day collecting top tier money for my position…. sign me up). THIS PAYROLL with THIS TEAM would likely be in the $170M range…… LESS than the 2017 payroll. And yes, I factored in the salary increases for the guys due to make more in arbitration AND the small increases they’ll likely give to guys under team control but not in their arb years…. like Almora among others. So IMO they’d still have about $30M they COULD spend if hey truly wanted too on top of having this potentially STELLAR team. They could EASILY re-sign Arrieta AND sign Lynn to round out the rotation making it Lester, Arrieta, Quintana, Hendricks, and Lynn…… that’s easily the best rotation in baseball. AND they could sign/re-sign relievers in Davis, Reed, Minor, Mcgee, AND maybe one more top tier free agent reliever on top of that making their bullpen that much more lights out…… maybe Holland. So a bullpen of Davis, Holland, Minor, Reed, McGee, Montgomery, Strop, and Edwards…. f*** me.
So this notion that the Cubs “need to do some serious work this offseason” is a joke to me. They have a ton of money coming off the books this offseason on top of the bucket loads they COULD spend if they truly wanted to to make the team payroll around the $200M range. I mean their entire offense is pretty much homegrown, young, cheap talent. The beautiful thing about the whole situation is is that when their guys like Rizzo, Bryant, Schwarber, Baez, Russell, Contreras etc. are all due to hit free agency, all these signees I list here will be hitting free agency as well since NONE of the guys I mentioned will be signed to deals longer than 4 years. Lester and his $25-$26M AAV will also becoming off the books around that time as well, so these deals won’t bury them when their marquee position players are due for salary increases via new deals. Sure, some of the position players will have to be let go and go elsewhere, but they’d still be able to retain the best of the best. Point is, for the next 3-4 years this team is sitting pretty payroll-wise regardless of what they do this offseason.
I’m impressed that you typed all of this out. I didn’t read any of it, I’m just impressed.
i didnt bother to read this entire thing, but your second setup would require something like 250M to pull off.
50M for Cobb
60M for Davis
80M for Lynn
30M for Reed
20M for McGee
20M for Minor
probably not gonna happen
Cliffs notes…”everyone on the Cubs will compete for MVP and CY Young in next 3-4 years”. Thanks for the input
Zobrist-NTC
Schwarber-bench/platoon
Your payroll would exceed LA
That….. was insanely longer than I anticipated. Bottom line, this team is sitting in excellent shape.
One thing I didn’t mention though in that novel of a post though. Can someone explain to me how MLBTR rationalizes Darvish getting a 6 year $160M deal or a $26.67M AAV while Arrieta will struggle to get much more than 4 years and $25M AAV? I mean they even pointed out that Darvish and Arrieta are pretty much the same age….. but DARVISH has major injury history UNLIKE Arrieta. And despite Arrieta struggling mightily the first half of his career in Baltimore…. his numbers are nearly identical to Darvish’s career numbers. Yes, Arrieta has about 300 more IP on his arm but that is mainly due to the fact Darvish missed a huge chunk of time because of….. TOMMY JOHN surgery. So how on earth is a guy who is the same age, has major injury history, and who has posted similar stats in his career as to Arrieta, BUT doesn’t have a Cy Young to his name worth MORE dollars and MORE years than Arrieta? Makesanoasense to me. IMO Darvish should be the cheaper of the two free agents, but if what MLBTR says and predicts is true, the Cubs are fools if they don’t “can’t” re-sign Arrieta then.
All that said….. neither Darvish or Arrieta are worth the money they are projected to attract this offseason which is why I almost would rather see the Cubs sign Lynn AND Cobb and then just pretty much rape the reliever free agent market of pretty much every reliever worth a d**n. Only guys worth returning to the bullpen from the 2017 squad who aren’t free agents are Strop, Edwards, and Montgomery. So that’s 5 relievers they need/could/should sign in free agency. Re-sign Davis and then Addison Reed, Jake McGee, and Mike Minor are all must adds IMO. Reed because he’s been one of the best setup men over the last 3 years and he’s only 29 years old. McGee because he’s a solid lefty to help Montgomery in the “lefty role” in the bullpen. Mike Minor because he is incredibly intriguing to me as a converted starter and now reliever. His 2017 was excellent and he might be a Davis 2.0 type reliever….. and he’s a lefty. This leaves 2 other spots. Greg Holland was nasty to start the season but tailed off there at the end. He is coming back from a long stretch of inactivity so he could’ve just been fighting fatigue. Also….. he was playing in Colorado so that finally might’ve caught up to him. I think he is a solid addition IF they can get him for a reasonable price/AAV. MLBTR has him projected at 4 years and $50M….. might be a bit too much for my liking IMO. But still….. there are a good amount of solid relievers the Cubs could EASILY add this offseason.
Arrieta ERA WHIP and Ks last 3 seasons. ERA. 1.77, 3.10, 3.53. Whip 0.87, 1.08, 1.22. Ks 236, 190, 163. If that doesn’t paint the picture that the rest of the league sees, then you are oblivious.
Won’t be easy to trade Zobrist without eating cash
Were you trying to make your post longer than the original article?
They need to re-sign Davis. At least for 4 years. Then sign 2 starters I’m hoping for Alex Cobb and another MOTR Starter. Then they need at least 2 bullpen arms. Addison Reed and even though Travis Wood had a bad year he was great for the cubs. He can start, do ling relief, short relief and plays left field. He’s as versatile as some of the every day players the cubs have. Pretty sure he signed a 2 year deal with KC before getting traded to San Diego. It wouldn’t cost much to get him back. 2 rookie ball players probably
If Schwarber’s value is so low, then trade Happ instead. Could easily see an Archer deal built around Baez and Happ, then Cobb is signed as your 5th starter. Some money will need to be splashed to bolster the back end of that bullpen, but some decent options are available.
Who’s gonna platoon with Schwarber against lefties and be the defensive replacement in left?
So trade Happ and Baez? You want Zobrist to play 2B every day or have them have to then go out and get another 2B guy to platoon with him? Bad move either way so I very highly doubt Cubs trade both Baez and Happ. I actually don’t think Happ gets traded at all cuz then the Cubs are sticking with Baez to who isn’t really showing that he is going to stop swinging and missing so much. Zobrist is getting old and I think the Cubs use this as the opportunity to start working Happ into the roll more
If the Cubs are going to trade from their core of position players, it NEEDS to be Schwarber. Period.
I don’t care, I don’t want to hear that his value has gone down.
It’s just so obvious he has to be the guy. I’ve never felt or seen a player that makes you feel so uncomfortable seeing him out in the outfield, and there’s been some bad slugging defenders that have been just stuck out in LF.
He’s too much of a liability, it’s that simple.
Without Schwarber, the Cubs are a better team, period. Everything, all the depth, yada yada makes perfect sense with Schwarber out of the picture.
If 2017 showed the Cubs anything, it’s that if Schwarber didn’t improve at all, even the least bit defensively, he’s never going too.
Having said all of that,
if the Cubs pick or choose to trade someone other than Schwarber, i.e. Russell or Baez, it’s going to be one of the most regrettable and just painful move they ever make.
Okay I’m done, that’s it, no more.
But Schwarber did improve in 2017. His 2nd half was much better than his 1st half.
As far as awkward left fielders…Schwarber is no worse then many others I’ve seen…Holliday, Dunn, Kingman, FRank Howard, Bichette, Incaviglia and many more.
Did everyone forget how bad Soriano was in the outfield? Schwarber will at least make some good catches here and there.
What they need to do is when they trade for a starting pitcher, get a good reliever in return as well, maybe they will pay less doing so. Like trade for archer and colome for Happ and a few prospects. Then I hope Theo trades schwarber to get benintendi, then you get your leadoff bat and left fielder and they can start almora in center most days . And they can look to the free agent market for a couple more relievers like Davis, Holland, Reed, minor, McGee, and morrow.. if they could aqcuire colome in a archer trade and resign Davis and sign Reed, they would then have a top 3 pen in the majors, and their offense only gets better by trading schwarber for benintendi, gives them a youngster that will only improve and he he has some pop and good obp to be a table setter for KB and Rizzo.
Also I’m still a fan of trying to trade heyward if he’s willing and package Happ or Baez with him to get a team to eat that contract. Then if that happened they could use all that money saved to sign a whole new pen.
That was funny.
I stopped reading after “Theo trades Schwarber for Benentendi”
lol same
The Cubs are in great shape for the next 3 or 4 years. That will be a great 7 year run. When was the last time you could say that about the Cubs.
Ignore the management team if you want. But they are among the best in baseball.
The Cubs could most certainly sign Anibal Sanchez, who still has great swing and miss stuff but has had an incredibly difficult time keeping the ball inside the park. The Cubs are the perfect team to put Sanchez into the number five slot and get very decent production.
Some may scoff at this proposal, but look at what they were able to do with John Lackey, a pitcher with stuff far inferior to Sanchez.
Better option is Chatwood. Great fastball and GB pitcher.
Rumor Mill: Heyward to SF for Shark and Melancon. Discuss.
I’ve never imagined the Giants’ offense actually getting worse. Well done!
Why would the Giants trade an inning eating starter with ace peripherals for one of the worst contracts in baseball?
First, SF is not doing that..Second, why do we want Samardzjia back? The guy has had maybe a total of 2 good years as a starter. At least Heyward gives you gold glove defense
In other words, the Cubs might do this, they might do that and they might do the other thing. Then again, they might do nothing.
Happ rode the pine in the playoffs, He is the prime trade candidate.
Baez is overrated on defense and people are finally seeing it. Zobrist had a better range factor.
Almora can’t get on against RHP. He is not an everyday player.
Listen to Theo talk about Kyle and you know he is not going to be traded.
Archer has had an ERA over 4 the last two years. He is a middle of the rotation guy, not top.
Is there any other team that is losing more valuable free agents this season?
Nope. Not even close.
Just saw that Anthony Rizzo got shafted out of a gold glove this year. And it’s total bs Baez wasn’t a finalist. There’s not a single player at 2b or SS in the NL. He had over 60 games at both positions and only made 8 total errors combined.
Goldschmidt isn’t half the player Rizzo is at 1st. He’s top 5 but not better. And even more bs Rizzo wasn’t a finalist for mvp. He had a better year than votto and goldschmidt. Less errors than them only a few less rbi. And he made the playoffs. It would be awful if Stanton, Altuve don’t win unanimously MVPs. As well as bellinger and judge for roty
Smoking that blue ganja again…lofl
Your one funny Guy
You sound like a Cubs fan that rates there players higher than Mike Trout. First, errors are not an accurate statistic to use when comparing a players defensive skills. Stats like DRS, and fielding runs above replacement are a way better stat to compare a player defensively. Overall, Rizzo did have a good defensive year, but Goldschmidt was better overall. Baez rated above average in DRS, but below average in fielding runs above replacement, where as LeMahieu rated as a very good defender in both categories. Next, I don’t know why you think Rizzo had a better year than Votto, and Goldschmidt. Rizzo batted 273, where as Goldy batted 297, and Votto batted 320. Also, Votto got on base way more compared to Rizzo, by striking out less, and walking more.
Rizzo > Your opinion
Instead of explaining himself you get a down vote…
Trade Rizzo, Heyward, and Baez for a controlled elite pitcher and 1 reliever. Move Schwarber to 1st. Happ/ La Stella plays 2nd. Almora, Zobrist, resign Jon Jay and FA outfielder for outfield. This will free up money for more pitching. I know I’ll get beat up for trading Rizzo but if it moves Heyward’s money it puts Cubs in better situation for future. Plus It could open up money that could be used on star outfielder.
You want to trade Rizzo,.heyward and Baez for a starter and 1 reliever? Schwaber has never played 1st. I like La Stella but he’s not a better option at 2nd over Baez. Those 3.players could get Archer and Odorizzi plus two relievers make it a 3 team trade cubs get Zach britton and Chris Davis amd cash go to Tampa bay.
Rizzo to baltimore
Britton to the cubs
Heyward and Baez to Tampa
Archer and Odorizzi to the cubs
That’s basically what you want
I like those trades if that gets us more money to shop for more pitching. I was looking more at the Braves for a trade involving some of there young controllable pitchers. Baez would be an upgrade at SS and Heyward is a local fan favorite. I thought Braves might be willing to take on Heyward’s salary. Hopefully Cubs could get 2 good arms out of the deal and dump Heyward’s salary.
Hopefully Rizzo could bring a better arm. Hopefully someone like Gerrit Cole. That might be ambitious but Rizzo is controlled out to 2021 and has a great contract.