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Cardinals Sign Miles Mikolas

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The first significant move of the offseason is in the books for the Cardinals, but it’s hardly one that everyone has been expecting. St. Louis announced Tuesday that it has signed right-hander Miles Mikolas, to a two-year contract. The 29-year-old Mikolas, who was known to be seeking a return to the Majors after a dominant three-year run with the Yomiuri Giants in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, will reportedly be guaranteed $15.5MM. He’s represented by Octagon.

Miles Mikolas | Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Mikolas, a former Padres/Rangers farmhand, didn’t establish himself in parts of three seasons with those two teams earlier this decade. From 2012-14, he turned in 91 1/3 innings with a 5.32 ERA 6.1 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 1.18 HR/9 and a 44 percent ground-ball rate. However, Mikolas had a sharp track record in the minors, highlighted by excellent control in the upper levels, which piqued the interest of NPB’s Giants.

In his three seasons in Japan, Mikolas registered a 2.18 ERA through 424 1/3 innings, capped off by a superlative 2017 season in which he spun 188 frames of 2.25 ERA ball over 27 starts. He not only struck out a batter per inning this past season but also dropped his walk rate to 1.1 BB/9.

For the Cardinals, Mikolas will add to what was already a fairly solid mix of starting pitchers. He’ll join Carlos Martinez, Luke Weaver, Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha and Jack Flaherty as a rotation option for manager Mike Matheny. Righties Sandy Alcantara, Mike Mayers and Alex Reyes are both on the 40-man roster as well, as is lefty Austin Gomber who was recently added as protection from the Rule 5 Draft. Reyes, though, is recovering from Tommy John surgery and may initially work out of the bullpen in his return from that procedure.

[Related: Updated St. Louis Cardinals Depth Chart & Payroll Outlook]

Adding Mikolas to their rotation will only further the speculation that the Cardinals are prepared to deal some arms as they look to bolster their lineup. St. Louis has been one of the two primary teams in pursuit of reigning NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton on the trade market (joined by the Giants), and if that doesn’t pan out the Cards could also look to pry Marcell Ozuna or Christian Yelich out of Miami or turn to other bats on the market. (Jose Abreu would fit the Cardinals’ stated goal of adding an impact bat, for instance.)

In terms of team payroll, the annual commitment of $7.75MM for Mikolas won’t be hard to fit onto the books. The Cards projected to have a payroll in the neighborhood of $128MM next season, though that figure includes projected arbitration salaries for both Wacha ($5.9MM) and Randal Grichuk ($2.8MM) — each of whom has seen his name surface in trade rumors this winter.

The Cards are well-positioned to take on multiple multi-year commitments this offseason, as they’ll see Wainwright’s $19.5MM salary come off the books at the end of the year, and their only notable arbitration cases for the 2019 season are Wacha, Grichuk, Tyler Lyons and Tommy Pham. Adding Mikolas to the rotation mix will push their current payroll projection into the $135MM range (depending on how it is broken down), which will leave room to add further pieces. The Cards opened the 2017 season with a payroll of more than $148MM, and they’re set to enter the first season of a new television contract that is worth more than $1 billion next season, providing an immediate and significant boost to their 2018 revenue stream.

Yahoo’s Jeff Passan first reported that an agreement was close (on Twitter). Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweeted that Mikolas had agreed to a two-year deal in the $14-16MM range. FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweeted the exact guarantee.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Indians Sign Dan Otero To Two-Year Deal

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The Indians announced today that they’ve extended right-handed reliever Dan Otero, agreeing to a two-year contract extension with a club option for a third year. The contract will buy out the ACES client’s final two years of arbitration eligibility and also give the team control over his first free-agent year. MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian reports (via Twitter) that Otero will be guaranteed $2.5MM on the deal. He’ll earn $1.1MM in 2018, $1.3MM in 2019 and has a $1.5MM club option with a $100K buyout. Otero can also earn $100K annually in bonuses tied to games finished.

Otero had already agreed to a one-year deal worth $1.3MM for the 2018 season this past Friday, so this new agreement will supersede that deal. It’s an eye-opener to see Otero agree to surrender a free-agent season for a minimal guarantee when he already had that deal in place, though it’s worth noting that arbitration deals like the one he agreed to last week aren’t fully guaranteed.

This contract, though, will afford Otero at least $2.5MM — a sum he wouldn’t have thought possible prior to the 2016 season when he was an unheralded waiver claim by the Indians. Set to turn 33 in February and with just over $3MM in career earnings to date, it seems that Otero simply prioritized taking the best guarantee that Cleveland was willing to offer.

While that’s not difficult to understand from a human perspective, the deal looks like a favorable one for the Indians from a baseball standpoint. Otero won’t blow anyone away with a fastball that averages just 90 mph, but he’s worked to an excellent 2.14 ERA in his 130 2/3 innings with Cleveland over the past two seasons. In that time, he’s averaged 6.5 K/9 against 1.3 BB/9 with just 0.6 HR/9 and a 63 percent ground-ball rate.

John Coppolella Makes First Public Comments Since Ban From MLB

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In his first public comments since being forced to resign as the Braves’ general manager and, eventually, permanently banned from Major League Baseball, John Coppolella issued a lengthy and apologetic statement to ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. The 38-year-old says that he has been “disgraced and humbled” and that he and his family have been “devastated and embarrassed by the repercussions of my actions.”

“Throughout my 20-year baseball career my singular focus has been to help make my team more successful,” says Coppolella. “I am heartbroken that in this case my conduct has done the opposite for the Atlanta Braves organization. I accept full responsibility for my actions.”

Coppolella goes on to apologize to the Braves organization, the Commissioner’s office, his former colleagues and peers throughout the industry and to Braves fans everywhere for the damage caused by his actions.

Those actions, of course, included significant circumvention of collectively bargained rules pertaining to both international amateur free agency and the annual June amateur draft. Commissioner Rob Manfred announced that his office’s investigation revealed that the Braves inflated their contract to a foreign professional in the 2015-16 offseason and then funneled some of that money to five players that were signed as international amateurs as a means of circumventing the international bonus pool system.

Had Atlanta signed the five amateur prospects for those full amounts, they’d have been barred from signing any player in the next year’s class for more than $300K. Instead, the Braves were able to spend aggressively on the 2016-17 class — netting well regarded names like Kevin Maitan and Abrahan Gutierrez — both of whom (along with 11 others) has since been declared a free agent by the league. Atlanta also inflated the bonuses of six additional players as a means of enticing prospect Robert Puason’s agent to agree to a deal in the 2019-20 signing period and offered Korean prospect Ji-hwan Bae “extra-contractual compensation,” per Manfred’s statement. The commissioner also noted that the Braves offered “impermissible benefits” in the amateur draft as well.

“I have learned the lesson of a lifetime, as my mistakes have cost me my dream job and my future in the game that I love,” Coppolella says near the end of his statements. “I hope that other people, regardless of their profession, use this as a cautionary tale when making their own business decisions.”

AL Notes: Keuchel, Twins, Avila, Rothschild, Athletics/Mariners Coaches

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Let’s check in on the latest from the American League:

  • Astros lefty Dallas Keuchel is currently sporting a walking boot after suffering a foot sprain, MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart writes. Keuchel told TMZ Sports that he was banged up in the team’s World Series parade. Fortunately, the expectation at the moment is that the injury won’t prove to be much of a hindrance to Keuchel as he begins to prepare for the 2018 campaign.
  • Now that the Twins are out of the chase for Shohei Ohtani, the team could consider dealing some of its remaining international pool money, LaVelle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune reports. Minnesota has a relatively hefty $3.245MM of pool capacity to work with and could offer that up to teams looking to bolster their coffers for an Ohtani signing. Of course, there are also a variety of potential targets left on the international amateur market.
  • Tigers GM Al Avila chatted recently with David Laurila of Fangraphs, who details their discussion. While the club is obviously settling in for some bumps, Avila says there’s “already a nucleus there for our future” on the current roster. While there are still quite a few more pieces to be added, the club’s top baseball decisionmaker suggests he is fairly high on several of the team’s controllable players who are at or near the majors. He also frankly acknowledged that the Tigers’ two middle infielders — Ian Kinsler and Jose Iglesias — could be on the move this offseason. “Whether they’re going to be with us this year or not, we’ll see,” he said of the two veterans, each of whom will reach the open market next winter. There’s more in that post from Avila as well as a few other execs from around the league.
  • The Yankees announced that Larry Rothschild will indeed remain on board as the team’s pitching coach. That move was reported prior to the team’s decision to hire Aaron Boone as its next manager. The club still has a variety of other vacancies to fill on Boone’s staff.
  • In other coaching news, the Mariners announced that Brian DeLunas has been hired as the team’s bullpen coach. Per the club, DeLunas has most recently worked for private entities CSE Baseball and Premier Pitching and Performance (P3) and previously served as a pitching coach at a variety of levels, including at the University of Missouri. Meanwhile, the Athletics have added Al Pedrique as the club’s new first base coach while shifting Mike Aldrete to assistant hitting coach and Marcus Jensen to bullpen coach. Pedrique, a former big leaguer, was most recently the manager for the Yankees’ top affiliate and has previously coached in the majors for the Diamondbacks and Astros.

Poll: Who Will Sign Shohei Ohtani?

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We have been covering Shohei Otani here at MLBTR since his first potential move to the majors — back in 2012, when he was a teenager. At that time, Ohtani decided to remain in Japan. Though an eventual posting always seemed likely, barriers arose along the way that made it seem he’d remain there a while longer, but the 23-year-old phenom is now well down the road of finally coming to North America to play at the game’s highest level. And now that he has narrowed his list of potential teams, we finally have an idea of where he might land.

With sit-down discussions just getting underway between Ohtani and his seven suitors, it seems an opportune time to get predictions from the MLBTR readership. It’s a fun exercise, nothing more, since at this point we still have no real idea what the decision will turn on.

Even if Ohtani himself has an inkling, he’s also surely waiting to see how he hits it off with each team. Of course, his list of possibilities does come with a few clues. He’s obviously inclined to play on the west coast, as all but two of the remaining teams are sited in states bordering the Pacific Ocean. Perhaps he’s not altogether committed to the idea of spending significant time as a DH (rather than an outfielder), as just three of the organizations are in the American League. Really, though, it’s pure guesswork.

Everybody has a pet theory or a gut intuition here. What’s yours? (Team order randomized; link for app users.)

Free Agent Profile: J.D. Martinez

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Despite not accumulating enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, J.D. Martinez hit the third-most home runs of any player in baseball. Make no mistake, he’ll be paid for his power this winter.

Pros/Strengths

Since his breakout season with the Tigers, Martinez has been an incredible power asset. Over the past four seasons, the outfielder is 10th in MLB with 128 homers, despite having the second-fewest plate appearances of any player in the top 20 in that category. During that time, Martinez trails only Mike Trout in slugging percentage. He also ranks within the top five in wOBA and wRC+ during that stretch, with an even .300 batting average and .362 OBP, so it’s not as if he’s an all-or-nothing presence at the plate.

During the 2017 season, Martinez took his power to a new level. Across 489 plate appearances between the Tigers and the Diamondbacks, Martinez posted a whopping .690 slugging percentage, which would have led all of baseball by a full 59 points if he’d made enough trips to the plate to qualify for the slugging title. The power numbers he puts up are incredibly impressive and will motivate many teams to inquire on him.

It’s not just his power numbers that stick out, however. Those figures are just one by-product of Martinez’ true greatest strength: quality of contact. His whopping 49% hard contact rate led all of baseball last season, and only Aaron Judge had more barrels per plate appearance.  His 208-foot average batted ball distance ranked 10th among hitters with at least 250 batted ball events. His 90.8 MPH average exit velocity ranked 12th, while his 97.2 MPH average exit velocity on fly balls ranked 6th.

Cons/Weaknesses

Though Martinez’ power is absolutely elite, he comes with a slew of weaknesses that hurt his value and build in a frightening amount of risk. It all starts with his health; Martinez has missed significant time with injuries in each of the past two seasons. In fact, the outfielder has only qualified for the batting title once in his career; teams will certainly be somewhat skeptical about his ability to produce at his 2017 clip over a full season in 2018, let alone in future years as he ages.

One can’t completely ignore defense, either, and Martinez is a downright liability in the field. Fangraphs rated him the seventh-worst defensive player in baseball in 2017. His Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 games was -14.8; that figure was the worst among all MLB outfielders. Defensive Runs Saved paints a slightly better picture, but his -5 DRS still ties him for 40th place out of 56 qualifying outfielders. If Martinez was even average defensively, he’d no doubt be one of the top ten most valuable players in baseball. As it stands, however, he’s outside the top 40 in WAR among hitters alone across a three-year sample size.

There’s also plenty of swing-and-miss in Martinez’ game, although it may not be a chief concern in today’s environment. His 26.2% strikeout rate was the 41st-highest among 216 MLB players with at least 400 plate appearances last year. Part of this stems from his 71.2% contact rate, which put him in the bottom eighth of baseball players in that category. It’s worth noting that Martinez improved his walk rate dramatically this year as well; his 10.8% walk rate put him in the 30th percentile. All told, high strikeout totals aren’t entirely uncommon for power hitters, but Martinez does have some of the poorest plate discipline among the elite power threats in the game. If we isolate the top 30 players in slugging percentage this past season, Martinez has the 6th-highest strikeout rate and 12th-lowest walk rate in that group.

The mediocre plate discipline is probably worth the trade-off for his avalanche of extra base hits, but it’s tough to know whether his swing will age well. Martinez and agent Scott Boras are reportedly seeking a contract above $200MM. While few in the industry think he’ll come close to that figure, the MLBTR team predicts he’ll earn something in the range of $150MM. If a win is worth roughly $9MM on the free agent market, one would think Martinez will need to provide somewhere close to 14 wins for his new team over the life of that contract, factoring in some inflation. Over the last century, only a handful of players have produced 14 WAR or more for their entire careers with a strikeout rate above 25% and a walk rate below 11%. Those players are Chris Davis, Ryan Howard, David Ross, Colby Rasmus and Melvin Upton Jr. None of them stands out as being particularly productive beyond his age 30 season. Of course, the game is trending in more of a strikeout-heavy direction these days, so perhaps that stat shouldn’t be observed with too much gravity.

Those readers interested in “clutch” hitters should know that Martinez hasn’t been good in high leverage situations. Since his breakout began at the start of the 2014 season, Martinez ranks dead last among 289 qualifying hitters with a -4.30 clutch rating via Fangraphs.

Background

With the number 611 overall pick in the 2009 draft (20th round), the Houston Astros selected Martinez out of Nova Southeastern University in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. He ascended quickly through the minor leagues, making his professional debut just two years later, performing as a roughly average major leaguer in half a season’s worth of at-bats. Things didn’t go well for Martinez across the next two seasons, however. He posted a .245/.295/.376 batting line from 2012-2013 and was ultimately released by Houston.

Although his career seemed all but over after being cut by a then-cellar-dwelling Astros team, the Tigers nabbed Martinez, who had spend the offseason overhauling his swing. Early into the 2014 season, it became clear that Detroit had picked up a completely different player than the sub-replacement level outfielder who had struggled with the Astros. Martinez went on to put together a .318/.358/.553 slash line en route to 4.0 WAR and a 154 wRC+ that year, and has produced fantastic offensive numbers ever since.

Market

As a right-handed power hitter, Martinez would be a welcome asset to the middle of any MLB team’s batting order. However, his price tag will put him firmly out of reach for the majority of teams in smaller markets. Furthermore, the length of the contract he’ll command might give pause to NL teams, who could be concerned that his already-poor defense will decline further with age. While that certainly doesn’t eliminate NL clubs, it does mean that AL clubs (who could play him at DH in the latter years of the contract) might be willing to offer a longer deal. As MLBTR has already noted in our Top 50 Free Agents With Predictions article, the Red Sox are a very good fit. The piece also mentions the Cardinals and Giants as suitors. I’d add the Yankees and Rangers to that list as well, though both would likely need to do some creative financial work to make it possible. Perhaps a few other surprise bidders could emerge.

Expected Contract

The $200MM+ contract Boras is seeking for Martinez isn’t realistic. MLBTR’s initial projection of $150MM over six years is more plausible. However, it’s become evident by now that teams are willing to be patient and wait out the free agent market. Going into last offseason, Yoenis Cespedes had a similar four-year WAR output, was just a year older, and had fewer health questions; he signed a four-year, $110MM contract. Based on that, it might be safer to predict a five-year deal for Martinez. I’m going to forecast exactly that, at a $135MM guarantee.

Rangers Re-Sign Tony Barnette

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The Rangers have agreed to re-sign righty Tony Barnette to a one-year deal, according a team announcement. He’ll receive a $1.5MM guarantee, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (via Twitter).

Texas had previously declined a $4MM option on Barnette, paying him a $250K buyout and putting him back onto the open market. He had played for the prior two seasons with the Rangers after signing with the club following a lengthy stint in Japan.

Barnette, 34, excelled in his first MLB campaign in 2016. (He had never touched the majors before going to Japan in 2010.) Over 60 1/3 innings, he worked to a 2.09 ERA with 7.3 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9.

Things turned south, however, in 2017. He boosted his K rate to 8.9 per nine, along with his swinging-strike rate (from 11.5% to 13.0%). But Barnette also allowed 3.5 free passes per regulation game and saw his ERA skyrocket to 5.49.

In the end, the relationship will continue. The 34-year-old Barnette will help boost the depth of the Texas bullpen, much as recent signee Doug Fister will for the rotation. While that has been a priority, the Rangers likely still have interest in some higher-end additions for both sides of the pitching staff.

2018 MLB Arbitration Tracker

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Our 2018 MLB arbitration tracker is now available! The tracker displays all arbitration eligible players, with fields for team, service time, player and team submissions, the midpoint, and the settlement amount. You can filter by team, signing status, service time, Super Two status, and whether a hearing occurred. For unsigned players that do not agree to terms in the interim, arbitration figures will be exchanged on January 12, 2018.

You can bookmark MLBTR’s 2018 Arbitration Tracker here, or you can find it in the Tools menu at the top of the site.

MLBTR is also the only place for salary projections for every arbitration eligible player, which you can find here.

Rangers Agree To Minor League Deals With Chi Chi Gonzalez, Three Others

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The Rangers announced today that they’ve re-signed right-hander Chi Chi Gonzalez to a minor league contract and invited him to Spring Training. Also getting minor league deals and camp invites are outfielder Anthony Gose (as has been previously reported), lefty David Hurlbut and infielder Christian Lopes.

Gonzalez was the Rangers’ first-round pick back in 2013, but the 25-year-old (26 in January) has struggled substantially in the Majors, pitching to a 4.54 ERA in 78 1/3 innings with more walks than strikeouts. Gonzalez missed the 2017 season due to a partial UCL tear that led to Tommy John surgery in July. He was non-tendered last week and probably won’t be ready to pitch until late in the season, but he’ll continue his rehab with the only pro organization he’s known to date.

Gose, 27, never cemented himself as a big league regular when he ranked among the game’s most promising outfield prospects. A two-way star as an amateur, Gose began pitching in the Tigers’ minor league ranks last season as well. It’s not clear if the Rangers plan to let him continue to experiment on the mound, but the press release references him as an outfielder, so it seems that’ll be his primary role.

Hurlbut, 28, was drafted by the Twins in ’09 and ’11 and has spent his entire career in the Minnesota organization. He reached the Triple-A level in both of the past two seasons and has a solid 3.58 ERA with 6.6 K/9, 1.6 BB/9 and a 47 percent ground-ball rate in 163 1/3 innings there.

Lopes, 25, was the Blue Jays’ seventh-round pick in 2011 and has spent his whole career in that organization. He’s a lifetime .262/.336/.376 hitter in his six minor league campaigns and reached Triple-A for the first time last year, where he batted .261/.349/.402 in 92 games.

Reds, Kyle Crockett Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Reds have struck an agreement with left-handed reliever Kyle Crockett, bringing him back to the organization on a minor league deal just days after non-tendering him, Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets. Crockett will be invited to Major League Spring Training.

Cincinnati claimed Crockett off waivers from the Indians a week ago today but apparently didn’t wish to carry him on the 40-man roster throughout the offseason. The former fourth-round pick will now be in camp and battle it out for a roster spot with a Reds team that looks to have several bullpen roles up for grab this spring.

The 25-year-old Crockett turned in a promising 1.80 ERA with 8.4 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9 in 30 innings in his first big league season back in 2014, but he’s struggled to a 4.84 ERA with 8.7 K/9 against 3.8 BB/9 in 35 1/3 big league innings since then. To his credit, Crockett has only surrendered three homers in 65 1/3 MLB innings and has held lefties to a .614 OPS in 167 plate appearances — including a .196/.266/.258 slash in 110 PAs between Triple-A and the Majors this year. Righties have knocked him around at a .280/.373/.452 clip in the big leagues, however.

The Reds’ top left-handed bullpen option this season will be Wandy Peralta, but the team doesn’t have any locks beyond him after Tony Cingrani was traded to the Dodgers in July. Brandon Finnegan, Cody Reed and Amir Garrett are the only other lefties even on the 40-man roster at all, though each is likely still viewed as a starter by the organization.

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