Braves Rumors

We’re firing up another new series here at MLBTR in which we’ll take one oft-discussed topic each week and present the high-level cases both for and against the move in question. Following that, we’ll present a roundtable of opinions from the MLBTR staff in a separate post and ask our reader base to weigh in on the matter with a poll.

With the Braves in full rebuild mode and their stated willingness to listen to offers for anyone not named Freddie Freeman,  it’s only natural that Julio Teheran’s name has come up frequently early in the summer. Last week, MLBTR’s Connor Byrne examined the difficulties in identifying a trade partner that had both the need to add Teheran and the ability to part with the MLB-ready types of young talent which Atlanta is said to covet in a theoretical deal.

Teheran is off to an incredible start to his 2016 season, having pitched to a 2.85 ERA with 8.5 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and a 42.5 percent ground-ball rate in 82 innings out of the Atlanta rotation. He also looks to be well on his way to a third straight season of 200+ innings in just his age-25 season. He’s benefited from some good fortune in terms of BABIP (.228) and strand rate (83 percent), but Teheran has posted a BABIP lower than the league average throughout his career and also posted strand rates that are above the league norm, so while some regression can be expected, it probably shouldn’t be assumed that those numbers will trend all the way back to the league averages.

We’re a good seven and a half weeks away from this year’s non-waiver trade deadline, and Teheran is pitching brilliantly for a last-place club in the midst of a rebuild, expect to hear his name floated with some degree of regularity between now and Aug. 1. However, does the very fact that he’s an appealing asset on a rebuilding club mean that Teheran should be traded? Let’s look at both sides of the coin.

The case for trading Julio Teheran

The case for the Braves to trade any player on their big league roster always starts at the same place: they’re a team that wasn’t good in 2015 and has been significantly worse in 2016. Atlanta is currently on a course for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 draft, and they’ll be among the few teams that are definitive sellers leading up to the Aug. 1 non-waiver trading deadline. The Braves will probably field calls on any and all pieces that could help a contending club, and Teheran, as noted above, more than fits that bill.

Given his strong start to the season, his highly affordable contract and the utter dearth of impact arms not only on the summer trade market but also on the upcoming free-agent market, there’s a chance that the Braves could coerce a team into parting with a potentially exorbitant package of young talent to pry Teheran from their hands. Atlanta reached that nexus of frenzied demand and willingness to surrender elite talent in the offseason’s Shelby Miller blockbuster, and there’s a case to be made that Teheran could, or at least should, be worth more. The D-backs, after all, were acquiring three years of Miller at arbitration prices, whereas a team dealing for Teheran would be taking on the remainder of this season’s salary ($2.06MM as of this writing) and three more years at $26.3MM. That’s three and a half years of Teheran for roughly $28.14MM plus a club option for $12MM in 2020 — his age-29 season. Last summer, the Rangers surrendered a package of Jerad Eickhoff, Jake Thompson, Jorge Alfaro, Nick Williams and Alec Asher in the Cole Hamels/Jake Diekman trade. Teheran’s entire contract is worth barely more than a season of Hamels, financially speaking.

Moving Teheran this summer could net the Braves an MLB-ready asset (as Eickhoff gave the Phillies or as Ender Inciarte and Aaron Blair gave the Braves in the Miller deal) as well as multiple high-ceiling, top 100 range prospects. The 2016 product is bad, and moving Teheran right now could net them two or more pieces that would help in 2017, when more of their vaunted farm system is at the Major League level.

The case against trading Julio Teheran

On the flip side, the Braves are aiming to contend in 2017, and Teheran helps them tremendously in that vein. Matt Wisler’s solid start to the season aside, Teheran is the Braves’ best pitcher. He misses more bats, generates more grounders and has displayed better control over the course of his career than Wisler has in his. Trading Teheran almost certainly makes the Braves a worse team in 2016, and there’s a very real chance that doing so would make them worse in 2017 as well. Acquiring MLB-ready assets is always a plus, but prospects aren’t guaranteed, no matter how highly regarded they may be. Teheran is performing well in the Majors right now and has done so since 2013, posting a cumulative 3.30 ERA in 689 1/3 innings.

The contract, as mentioned above, gives the Braves the best years of a pitcher that may not be a definitive ace but can clearly pitch near the top of a Major League rotation at an exceptionally affordable rate. Teheran is in his fourth season of big league service and would’ve been arbitration-eligible for the second time this coming winter. He’s earning salaries of $3.3MM, $6.3MM and $8MM for his arbitration seasons and can be controlled for just $23MM total for his first two would-be free-agent seasons. His arb years are cheaper than the likes of Wade Miley and Lance Lynn, and Teheran’s free-agent seasons are priced somewhere in the range of 50 to 75 percent of what they’d command on the open market (as is the case with most pre-arbitration extensions). There’s an enormous amount of value to the Braves themselves in that deal.

Beyond the on-field and financial reasons for keeping Teheran, the Braves have been aggressively working to fight the notion that they’re “tanking” in order to continue to build up the farm through the draft. General manager John Coppolella has repeatedly stressed that his hope for the 2016 season was an improvement over 2015’s record and strides toward a competitive product in 2017 — the opening season of the Braves’ new stadium, Sun Trust Park. Trading away their best pitcher for even more young, controllable pieces would only further fuel the tanking narrative, even if the return brought the potential for multiple contributors to the 2016-17 roster. The Braves would also face continued backlash from a fanbase that has been particularly vocal about its thoughts on the current rebuild, and while fan reaction shouldn’t be the deciding factor in a move, it’s certainly something of which the Braves’ brass must be mindful as it approaches the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The Braves entered the season amid a full rebuild, so it’s hardly a surprise that they’ve shown a willingness to ship away veterans during their National League-worst 16-37 start. Two months into the season, Atlanta has already moved a pair of right-handers, starter Jhoulys Chacin and reliever Jason Grilli, for younger players. The club is understandably less eager to trade its premier major league asset, fellow righty Julio Teheran, as general manager John Coppolella has stated multiple times since last weekend.

On the possibility of dealing the 25-year-old Teheran, Coppolella told FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, “The days of us trading players like Teheran for prospects are over. We need to get better at the major league level. We would have to be overwhelmed to move Teheran.”

Coppollela then informed Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball that he expects Teheran to remain with the Braves for “a long time.”

Teheran is indeed slated to stay in Atlanta for the foreseeable future, having agreed to a pact in 2014 that could keep him there through the 2020 season. That team-friendly contract is undoubtedly a significant part of Teheran’s allure to the Braves and the rest of the league. Teheran’s run prevention (3.37 ERA in 701 2/3 innings) and durability (three straight 30-start seasons) only add to his appeal. Skeptics would point to his less shiny ERA estimators (3.88 FIP, 3.94 xFIP and 3.86 SIERA), mediocre 2015 campaign, this year’s velocity drop and the fact that he has been prone to hard contact as reasons for concern, however.

From a contractual standpoint, Teheran is currently on a relatively meager $3.3MM salary and has a chance to rake in another $37.3MM, including a $12MM club option, over the final four years of his deal. Teheran, therefore, doesn’t need to be particularly dominant to live up to the contract. Thanks to his strong start this season (68 1/3 innings with a 2.77 ERA, 8.17 K/9 and 2.63 BB/9), FanGraphs already values Teheran’s 2016 contributions at $8.4MM. And thanks to both Teheran’s first two months and the weak-looking class of upcoming free agent starters, now might be an opportune time for the Braves to at least consider moving him.

In order for the Braves to actually sell Teheran, Coppolella told Rosenthal he would need a major league hitter of comparable age and quality in return. The problem, if you want to call it that, is such a trade could be a pipe dream for Atlanta. For one, pitchers are more susceptible to injuries than position players, so teams might not be willing to take the risk. Secondly, contending clubs with their eyes on Teheran would be creating a hole just to patch another if they were to swap a hitter for him.

The Red Sox, Dodgers, Tigers and Marlins are among playoff hopefuls who could explore the summer market for starters, and their similar-to-Teheran position players include third baseman Travis Shaw, outfielder Yasiel Puig, third bagger Nick Castellanos and center fielder Marcell Ozuna. It’s doubtful, however, that any of them will be on the move.

Shaw has done nothing but produce since debuting in the majors last season, and he appears primed to man the hot corner in Boston until at least the beginning of the distant Rafael Devers era. Puig has unexpectedly performed like merely an average player since last season, but the Dodgers still seem to need him more than they need another starter. Castellanos has been one of the majors’ top hitters this year, and the Tigers don’t have a replacement for him at the big league level – nor do they have imminent help coming from their farm system. Ozuna has not only been the Marlins’ most valuable outfielder this year (no small feat with Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich alongside him), but he’s also their best defensive option in center.

The Red Sox were willing to move 24-year-old catcher/outfielder Blake Swihart for a No. 2-type starter as of last month, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported, but Swihart alone isn’t definitively worth Teheran. The Braves were at least enamored of Cubs outfielder Jorge Soler in the past, Gordon Wittenmeyer of the Chicago Sun-Times wrote in October, though Chicago subsequently added John Lackey in free agency. With Lackey complementing Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel, the Cubs have arguably the most well-rounded rotation in the league from one to five (though they’re still reportedly seeking depth). Further, they probably aren’t keen on the idea of parting with outfield depth in the wake of Kyle Schwarber’s season-ending injury. There’s also the fact that Soler has underwhelmed since bursting on the scene in 2014 with a fantastic 24-game showing.

With no clear fit mentioned above, it’s fair to wonder what the prospect cutoff is for the John Hart- and Coppolella-led Braves. Would the team really scoff at sending Teheran to, say, the pitching-needy Rangers in a package for one of their excellent 22-year-old prospects, power-hitting, cannon-armed third baseman Joey Gallo or outfielder Lewis Brinson? The Pirates also have rotation issues — granted, they have in-house reinforcements on the way in Jameson Taillon, Tyler Glasnow and perhaps Chad Kuhl — and their stellar outfield trio of Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco looks primed to block the big league path of 21-year-old Austin Meadows. Even if the Braves were receptive to sending away Teheran in a package for any of those players, there’s obviously no guarantee the youngsters’ current organizations would be open to it. All three entered the season among Baseball America’s top 25 prospects, after all (Gallo 10th, Brinson 16th and Meadows 22nd), to cite one reputable outlet’s list.

If it truly takes an overwhelming haul for Atlanta to deal Teheran, then it’s fair to expect he won’t follow Shelby Miller out of town. The Diamondbacks drew almost universal criticism from the moment they traded Dansby Swanson, Ender Inciarte and Aaron Blair for Miller during the winter, and that deal has so far blown up in Arizona’s face. The Braves are highly unlikely to net a comparable package for Teheran – nor will it be easy to land an accomplished, in-his-prime big league hitter in return – so he’s a good bet to continue in Atlanta if Coppolella’s public statements are how he actually feels. Of course, given Teheran’s age, performance and contract, the Braves’ backs aren’t against the wall in this case. Barring injury, simply keeping him wouldn’t qualify as a disastrous decision, and Coppolella appears content to do just that.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.