On several occasions over the past decade, the Phillies have shown a willingness to spend among the league’s elite. However, because the Phillies were recently amid a full-fledged rebuild, the big-market club took major steps backward in the spending department. Last year, with Philadelphia aiming to make a sizable leap in the standings, the team began with a modest $95MM-plus in commitments. Two expensive signings from last offseason – right-hander Jake Arrieta (three years, $75MM) and first baseman Carlos Santana (three years, $60MM) – easily served as the Phillies’ priciest players in 2018, and the duo did help the team make legitimate progress. The Phillies notched their best record since 2012 (80-82), totaling 14 more wins than they amassed in 2017, but they finished under .500 for the sixth consecutive season and extended their playoff drought to seven years.
Santana is now on the block, though his potential exit isn’t a sign that the Phillies are looking to cut costs. Quite the contrary, actually, as owner John Middleton has publicly declared that the Phillies won’t be bashful when it comes to doling out money. In fact, while discussing the Phillies’ offseason plans on Friday, Middleton proclaimed that “we’re going into this expecting to spend money. And maybe even be a little bit stupid about it. We just prefer not to be completely stupid.”
Even before Middleton made it known that Philadelphia’s looking to go big-game hunting, expectations were that the franchise would spend aggressively this winter. After all, the open market now features two of the most enticing free agents ever in outfielder Bryce Harper and infielder Manny Machado. Combining the Phillies’ spending capabilities with the lack of guaranteed money on their books beyond 2020, pursuits of both Harper and Machado have seemed like foregone conclusions. Both players stand a strong chance of surpassing the richest contract in baseball history – the 13-year, $325MM extension outfielder Giancarlo Stanton signed with the Marlins in 2014 – and the Phillies are among the teams truly capable of spending that type of cash. What’s more, if any one organization is going to sign both Harper and Machado, the Phillies are on a very short list of realistic possibilities.
The need for Harper, Machado or both in Philadelphia is obvious, as either player would clearly boost a position player group which ranked 22nd in runs and 23rd in fWAR in 2018. The Phillies’ 48 hitters accounted for 12.4 fWAR, while Machado (6.2) and Harper (3.5) combined for 9.7 by themselves. The two 26-year-olds have been among the game’s most feared hitters throughout their decorated careers, though Machado has also provided plenty of value as a third baseman. The former Oriole and Dodger would do the same in Philadelphia, which got so-so production at the hot corner from Maikel Franco, current free agent Asdrubal Cabrera and J.P. Crawford, among others, in 2018. Franco’s now penciled in as the Phillies’ 2019 starter at third, but that spot’s ripe for an upgrade.
Philadelphia is seemingly even worse off at shortstop, Machado’s preferred position and where he spent the majority of last season. Machado didn’t have a banner year defensively, but he did place first among shortstops in wRC+ (141) and second in both home runs (38) and fWAR. The Phillies, on the other hand, received a microscopic 0.7 fWAR from shortstops Scott Kingery, Crawford, Cabrera and Pedro Florimon, and their combined wRC+ (74) was barely more than half of Machado’s.
Fortunately for the Phillies, their 2018 outfield wasn’t as toothless as the left side of their infield. That doesn’t mean it’s an area of strength, however. Aside from slugger Rhys Hoskins, who overcame horrific defense to log a respectable fWAR (2.9), the Phillies got mediocre or worse overall production from outfield regulars Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams, Roman Quinn and Aaron Altherr. Going forward, Hoskins may shift to first base, which explains the team’s willingness to trade Santana and could increase the need for Harper or another high-end outfielder. Harper, like Hoskins, had a year to forget in the field. Defensive ineptitude has hardly been the norm for Harper since he debuted in 2012, though, and he made up for it to an extent by notching another quality year at the plate.
Signing Harper would improve the Phillies’ near-term chances of returning to contention, and there’s an added bonus: Landing him would be a blow to the division-rival Nationals, Harper’s only team to date. The Nats, the reigning NL East champion Braves and the Mets will each push for supremacy in the division next season, but the Phillies could wind up as the favorites if general manager Matt Klentak uses Middleton’s money effectively this winter. While there are plenty of avenues Klentak could explore that don’t involve Harper or Machado, speculation about those two heading to Philadelphia will persist until they officially come off the market.
If the Phillies sign Machado it’s gonna be entertaining to see how he interacts with Kapler. I’m gonna say the first head to head explosion will happen in mid April.
Name one instance of Machado doing that before.
Other than the “I don’t hustle” thing, he’s literally never drawn the ire of his managers, and all his teammates say he’s been outstanding in the cluhouse.
The confusing thing about Machado is he plays on-field mind games against the opposition that borderline on dirty, but ultimately exist to get the players head out of the game and on Machado himself. It’s an eons-old move that has worked great for his team – and his team is the reason why he does it.
Philadelphia-based teams are always desperate for big names, but they’ll turn on you in a heartbeat if you don’t win.
If you give 110% and hustle you will be ok in Philly. Not running out a ground ball is not an option…
ok, the bench clearing brawls. Causing the brawl when hit by pitch, and the cheap shot. Not hustling down to first. Which one do you wanna discuss that would enrage a manager like Kapler? How about watching some AL East games.
You clearly aren’t familiar of just what a complete ass this guy has been. Machado was suspended for 5 games a few years ago for his actions against the A’s. He started a dugout clearing brawl because he felt that Josh Donaldson tagged him to hard. Then he hit catcher Derek Norris on the head several times with his backswing which Norris eventually had to leave the game because of his history with concussions. While Norris was being examined, Machado stood in the box with a big grin on his face and then to top it all off threw his bat toward Josh Donaldson at third base on an obvious intentional swing and miss.
The incident is not hard to find on the internet.
Manny Machado is a classless ahole and any team that signs him will eventually regret it.
He-man will offer Machado some herbal tea.
Blue Jays fans think Phils will trade for Tulo and Martin.
No we don’t.
Shanes right – nope
Andrew sign Machado already
Didn’t learn anything from the Ryan Howard debacle, eh?
Ok well Machado is not an unathletic 1B.
Howard couldn’t hit a JV curveball…
Trade Wil Myers for Carlos Santana and prospects.
Then trade Carlos Santana, Francisco Mejia, Hunter Renfroe, Michael Gettys, and some pitching to the Mariners for Kyle Seager and Jean Segura.
Moving Santana lets the Phillies put Hoskins at 1st while addressing OF needs. Padres get 3B and SS while clearing OF log jam. Mariners get long term catcher, long term OF power bat, an OF prospect who needs a 40 man spot, and some mlb ready pitching like Nix and Kennedy.
I like that idea but Seager has a lot of money on his contract.
Seager has about the same amount of money Myers has left.. Myers cant stay healthy and least Seager can. Though seager is actually cheaper than Myers after this season. And Seagers contract is done after 2021 whereas Myers is 2022. Seager is clearly a rebound candidate imo to handle 3B. Plus Seagers rated highly defensively at 3B.
The Padres would trade 5+ players with 15+ years of team control for Kyle Seager? Hmmm….doubt that very highly. (I’ll leave Sugura out of this since he has no value whatsoever to San Diego, being extraordinarily expensive and a bad defender).
Well if you leave out Segura it changes the trade proposal obviously. The deal included Segura and Seager. You cant take a part out and then say well thats a horrible deal to trade all 5 of those for just seager. Nice try though. Seguras value comes in the form of padres being table to trade Urias for a cost controlled ace to lessen the package it would take if you were to not include Urias. Segura could stay at SS or shift over to 2B and Tatis Jr plays SS. Either way
“extraordinarily expensive” 14 mill a year, 3 WAR player. actually 7 mill less than what hed command if you use the 1 WAR being 7 mill
“bad defender” fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5933&posit… posts decent defensive ratings according to fangraphs.
Anything else you want to be wrong about?
i like the thought but won’t happen.
That’s stupid
What prospects are Phillies giving with Santana to acquire myers
You all forget that myers is worth more, younger, and more offensive incline then Santana
Santana sucks worst than myers at third
So what prospects are you trying to give to acquire myers
Dumb dumbs
Kyle Young and Cole Irvin would be my preferred choice of prospects to head back to the Padres. I love Young’s side at 6’10”. Think he could be a Chris Young 2.0 for the padres.
Needs more from Seattle if Mejia is in the deal, I like it otherwise.
Why would the Mariners even think of dealing Segura.Padres dont need to overpay for Jean Segura given that Tatis is almost or already MLB ready. Kyle seager has a big contract and his numbers arent too great lately. Myers can always play LF which is his best position in SD if needed.
Seager had a down year after a 5 year run of netting at least 3 WAR. The money owed to him is similar to the money owed to Myers. The only difference being Seager plays 3B well defensively, can stay healthy, and fills a position of need.
If Seager played to his usual level Myers wouldnt be enough to pry him away from Seattle. Padres would be buying low on Seager with the hope of him rebounding. Preller typically likes to take a chance on those types.
Seagers contract also ends in 2021 while Myers ends in 2022. Meaning the Padres get out from a contract obligation a year earlier to extend core assets earlier.
Also, Reyes and Cordero and Renfroe can also play LF if you werent aware. Padres have a log jam of corner outfielders. If the Mariners deal Segura theyd be getting back 2 positions of needs- OF and C. Can always put Dee Gordon at SS, Cano back at 2B, run with Healy and Vogelbach as 1B/DH.
Padres give the mariners ALL THE PLAYERS (some quite valuable) for overpriced Seager and Segura? Is this some kind of “Preller is dumb” joke that I’m missing?
Myers in the OF is an injury waiting to happen. He cant stay healthy there. Id say stick him at 1st but Preller put Hosmer there for some strange reason.
Seager and Myers are roughly owed the same amount of money. The only differences being Myers is younger, Seager plays better defense at 3B, and Seager is coming off a down year after a 5 year stretch of netting at least 3 WAR. Oh and the Padres have an OF log jam. Moving Renfroe and Myers leaves Margot Cordero and Reyes to see consistent playing time.
You could theoretically cut out the middle man in the phillies and build a Myers and Gettys package for Seager and prospects from the Mariners side. Thought idk how much the Mariners need Myers. They could welcome Santana.
The Segura part means the padres can trade Urias in a deal for a cost controlled ace and put Tatis Jr at 2B.
The problem is Hosmer should be in the AL. Split time at 1st then DH. He has 7 years left. He’ll be traded within 3 years of the remaining contract
Phillies have to save $50M annually starting in 2021 for Trout.
The thought that Harper/Trout or Machado/ Trout will be on the same team in a few years is a little scary
Get over it. When Trout signed his extension earlier in his career it pretty much ended any chance he had of playing in Philly. They’re not waiting for Trout, and then paying a near 30 year old (no matter how good he is) $500M. That would be extremely stupid. They’ll sign Harper this winter, and then Arenado next. No room for Trout, and no point in waiting two more years to spend their money.
A near 30 Trout for 7 years is way better than any free agent for the next 4 years
You don’t know that. First off, with the way Trout plays—all out, all the time—his body is likely to break down quickly in his mid 30s. Second, do you really think a 29 year old Trout is going to sign for 7 years? Why would he. If he continues on the pace he’s on, he’ll have teams lining up with 10 year offers. Sure, the game is changing in terms of what teams will give players, but if there’s ever an exception it’s when one of the best players to EVER play the game is available. Signing Trout will take 10 years and likely more than $500M. Not a smart investment at that point in his career. Today, right now? Sure. But he’s not available, and Harper/Machado are, and are younger and cheaper.
Trout is Mantle without the booze, knees, and hassle. He has given the Angels plenty of opportunity to win. When he comes home to Philadelphia, he will not only become the face of the Phillies but the face of MLB as he deserves to be. He will absolutely be worth the money.
Trout has no knees.
It’s sad, really. Just straight bones from hips to ankle. Looks like a Christmas nutcracker when running.
I wanted them to get Harper or Machado but the more I think about it, I think they should spread the money around and not blow it all on one player.
1. If miss on Harper – Adam Jones , AJ Pollock , Michael Brantley
2. Miss on Machado – Jose Iglesias , Mike Moustakus or Josh Donaldson
Sign Corbin or Eovaldi
Britton for the bullpen
Gross…….they’d be better off blowing their load on Harper & Machado than signing Jones, Inglesias, Moose or Donaldson
I’m sticking with my original prediction of the Phillies signing neither.
Initially I had Bryce Harper joining his pal Kris Bryant on the North Side of Chicago while Manny Machado signed with his favorite team in the Bronx. Now I have Machado signing with the Cubs and teaming up with boyhood bud Albert Almora, all after Bryant is traded to the Mets for Noah Syndergaard. The Cubs will then address their bullpen needs and the hole at the leadoff spot in free agency or from among their pitching, infield and outfield surplus on the active roster. They will then become the prohibitive NL favorites to vie for more World Series titles in the next few years.
Meanwhile, I have Harper joining Machado in Chicago, only this time on the South Side with Jerry Reinsdorf offering White Sox fans a going away present before he rides off into the sunset after winning another championship or three in the next decade.
This is one of the worst proposals I’ve ever seen. Bryant is worth much more than Thor.
I can’t take credit for it. That notion came from a NY baseball writer earlier this week.
The fact is both player are among the top at their respective crafts. In addition, both are 26, were former first round picks and most importantly possess 3 more seasons of arbitration eligible control.
The trade makes a ton of sense for both teams. The Mets need offense and a replacement for long time fan favorite David Wright at 3B. The Cubs have soured on Bryant with his rejection of their extension proposal and could replace him with an elite ace starting pitcher. This move would then result in a chain reaction for the Cubs that would propel them into the odds on favorite to represent the NL in the World Series over the course of the next few years.
Regardless of what you perceive as Bryant’s value over Syndergaard the big picture must take precedence. The Mets also need a lot of help in their bullpen. The Cubs could offer one of their surplus righties to balance off a deal if Bryan’t’s value is slightly greater than Syndergaard’s. Another arrow pointing in favor of Syndergaard would be his projected arbitration cost over the next 3 years. He earned just under $3MM for the 2018 season while Bryant took in nearly $11MM. That trend should continue over the course of the next 3 years which could save the Cubs some substantial dollars that they could use as a down payment for other FA’s or for extending some of their other young arbitration eligible players.
Trading away Kris Bryant will never makes sense for the Cubs. fits their general philosophy just too well.
The NY media just needs to let it go. Repeating it ad nauseum will not make it happen.
Money, profits and doing whatever it takes to win another World Series title make the most sense for Cubs owner Tom Ricketts. If Kris Bryant remains a Cub because of his character why is Addison Russell still on their active roster? Why did ownership sign off on the Aroldis Chapman trade?
Bryant for Syndegard makes both teams better, both free agents at same time. I make that trade as either GM.
That’s a bad trade for the Cubs. Syndergaard is great, and you can never have enough pitching, but in today’s game it’s unfortunately becoming obsolete. That being said, Bryant is an MVP talent who impacts the game daily. If you’re trading him for a pitcher you better be getting a guy who starts 35 times per year and throws 230+ innings, but those guys don’t exist anymore.
I’d do it in a heartbeat, Bryant is extremely overrated. He wasn’t even the MVP of his team when he won the NL MVP, voters looked at his overall numbers and that’s it. He struggles in high leverage situations, always has, his stats come from games that are out of hand. This would be a no-brainer for the Cubs.
Bryant, in his 2016 MVP season, hit a robust .196 in high leverage situations and an even worse .140 in 2017. What did Rizzo do in 2016??? In high leverage situations 2016, Rizzo hit .386. When fans rant and rave about how great Bryant is I want to puke, I watch the Cubs 150+ times a year, he isn’t great and easily replaceable. If you can get the type of player like Thor for Bryant, my god I wouldn’t be able to say yes fast enough.
Players don’t sign to play with their childhood friends, or else Harper, Bryant and Gallo would have all requested trades to the same team.
Machado to Yankees, Harper to White Sox.
lol
How about local cuisine as a factor? Harper has already let it be known that Chicago is at the top of the food chain with NY also getting props. He made no mention of an affinity for Philly cheese steaks. lol
How about this…wherever Harper and/or Machado sign will come down to one thing…MONEY. Whichever team offers the most will get them. Could be the Phillies. Could be the Yankees. Could be a team in South Korea. If they offer the most money they’ll get them. Nothing else matters.
Clearly you are not a fan of sarcasm. Obviously all this is based on money as the #1 factor. After that, it will boil down to the player’s preference be it locale, their long term prospects of winning a ring, playing with friends or maybe even cuisine with the dollars being relatively equal in any equation.
Maybe you were being sarcastic, but so many fans think players are going to sign for so many stupid reasons…to play with friends, to be close to home, to play for a team they liked growing up, etc. Players sign for money, plain and simple. Everything else is way down the list.
To be fair if I was a player making millions, I’d take less millions to play for my favorite team and try to change a title. And there’s also teams I’d be pissed if I got traded to. Yeah it’s smarter to not think that was as a professional player, but just because you become a professional doesn’t mean you stop being a fan. Some do, but others maybe not as much
*chase
They do if the money’s more or less the same… I mean, why wouldn’t they?
So is the money more or is it the same?
If the money is close, then other factors weigh in. If they have young children for instance, or if they are divorced and want to be near their kids. Matt Williams once vetoed a trade because he wanted to be near his kids.
Harper and Machado are young star players that you don’t see getting to free agency very often. There are a lot of contenders with deep pockets going after these guys. If contenders like the Yanks, Cubs, Astros, Nats and Dodgers give them an equal offer they will problably go to those teams, they are more committed to winning.
The yankees might be the one team to be stupid to sign Machado or Harper, they need pitching more then hitting. I see the phillies making a splash, I don’t want them to sign either but won’t be shocked if they get one of them
How would signing Machado or Harpee be stupid for the Yankees? It’s not like these guys are 30+ year guys who are in a decline, they’re 26 wiho could still become better. Plus signing a guy like Machado would allow them to use Andujar as a trade chip if they so desire. If they sign one of these guys, then they’re clearly going over the Luxury Tax. So they’d still sign a guy like Corbin and trade for a Kluber/Bum/Paxton/Carrasco type pitcher.
It would be really dumb for them to sign one of them, they have the offense. They need pitching more then anything. They have the young infield of Torres & Andujar, they will be better off going after Marwin Gonzalez or Jed Lowrie, If they add Machado then DiDi will be blocked after the 2019 season.
Didi might not even come back in 2019. Adding a superstar to the team isn’t dumb by any means. They have good enough resources to end up with pitching, regardless.
Couldn’t agree more. It’s fun to think of adding more offense, but the Yankees simply don’t need it. They already led the majors in home runs last year and were second in total bases and runs. Pitching they were mediocre, especially in their starting five. Add two starting pitchers and call it an off-season.
Hey guess what? The yankees can sign a bat AND pitching. Also the Yankees might have hit the most homers ever in a season, but they sucked with RISP and Machado has good numbers with RISP..
And as stated above, Didi might not even be back.
Machado’s glove at 3B is light years ahead of Andujar, who the Yankees should be selling high on.
Asking Phillies fans–do they think Santana/Arrieta were worth the spend last year? Would they be comfortable with both playing out their contracts?
Santana wasen’t worth the money because he took Hoskins out of first base, Arrieta was good the first half of the season but not the second half, But the defense was terrible which is why his numbers were not good. If they can add another starter like Corbin, they would be in a drivers seat for a wildcard, possibly the nl east.
I like Santana as a player but the fit is nonexistent
The Arrieta deal wasn’t bad based on the length
How about philly takes on the greinke contract without coughing up a lot of the farm system?
That’s not a bad idea! They certainly have the money.
“How about philly takes on the greinke contract without coughing up a lot of the farm system?”
This is what I see them doing. It does their MO and his three years of control remaining (with a little being paid down via trade) is agonist too perfect.
I can’t really hate either deal because of the length. Thought Arietta did a good enough job.
The problem with the Phillies is Matt Klentak is in way over his head. He bid against himself on Santana and Arrieta. Both were underwhelming with Arrieta clearly showing decline and Santana supplanting Hoskins at his natural position. Klentak has not made one deal in which the Phillies have been the clear winner. The “prospects” of this team are suspects and the only reason they are going after both Harper and Machado is because the farm system is a wasteland. How do you goof on so many first rounders?!?! This team is an unmitigated disaster – worse than the Eagles really. Spending money to bring in two high price free agents is not the answer.
Easy question to answer. Yes on Arieta. Santana made things much worse. Aside from the obvious with Hoskins, it completely screwed up other players. It took a promising Aaron Altherr and put him on the bench where his skills rotted away. Might have ruined a career.
When He-Man started to play Russian Roulette with Nick Williams, it messed him up too. They waited too long to bring Roman Quinn up. He might have been the only spark on a dismally poor defensive team.
Looks like I got a double tap.
If either give me Harper based on obp and hustle. I cant stand Machado
If they got Goldschmidt in addition to both Harper and Machado, then they’d have quite the lineup. That’s what you want from stupid spending.
Phillies will end up with neither. Machado and Harper will be paid big, regardless of what team signs them. Unless the Phillies start throwing them Absurd deals the owner is hinting at, they’ll sign elsewhere. Machado would probably take less to sign with the Yankees, and I could see Harper signing with a team like the Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees (if they pass on Machado), or even the Nats over the Phillies. Harper wants to win, and the Phillies are still ways away from being true World Series contenders, even with Harper and Machado. Harper’s brand would increase much more in a Yankees, Dodgers, or Cubs uniform over the Phillies.
Just tell me, when was the last time a Philly player was recognized outside of baseball?
Lenny Dykstra, John Kruk, Darren Daulton and Wild Thing Mitch Williams.
The strange thing about the Phillies is, even if they got both players, they still aren’t even an 85 win team. It’s truly scrub city in Phily outside of Nola, who if they were smart they’d be trading and rebuilding. Isn’t this the “trust the process” city? Why doesn’t that apply to baseball, where they’re doing literally the opposite and trying to buy their way into the postseason?
This is true and why the Phillies rebuild has been massively overrated. Their future is nothing speical
How can you say they wouldn’t be an 85 win team if they get Machado and Harper? They won 80 last year without them? Do even watch baseball??
The Phillies had a top 10 farm system coming into this past season. Is that “scrub city”?
You’re a dope
Gotta love those California fans that bail after the fifth inning.
I hope neither signs til Jan/Feb. to drive the price down that would be a LoL,wouldn’t touch that price for either one
The fact that 13.65% of people think the Phillies will sign both is the biggest chuckle I’ve had in months.
I think its more likely that they get both than get neither. I don’t think they will sign both but I do think the Phillies will do something like sign Harper, Donaldson and either sign or trade for a left handed pitcher to slot between Nola and Arrieta. The only way I can see the Phillies not get either Harper or Machado is if both sign for less money than the Phillies will offer since I see them as the highest bidders for both. Middleton got control of the team a couple of years ago and has been waiting for this year to leave his mark on the team.
Machado and harper wont be playing on a 3rd place team lol. Machado also scream yankees based on his lack of drive or hussle he fit well next to gary sanchez and aaron judge. Harper is also very “hollywood” and will go to bigger city like new york or los angeles.
“Machado and harper wont be playing on a 3rd place team lol.”
They’ll play on whatever team is willing to pay them the most money. Winning, for both players and owners, is fun, but a distant second to money.
Been predicting Harper to Philly for two years now. Sticking with it.
They will spend stupid money on him. Stupid.
I dont see why they dont trade hoskins to a al team for a couple valuable pieces. He’s a liability- good hitter or not.
Phillies should trade Santana and a couple of prospects for Greinke and move Rhys back to 1st. Santana could play 1st for Arizona, and they could trade Goldy for prospects. They’d get out from under a lot of payroll and have some prospects to show for it., Philly would be getting a really good starter for just an additonal $15M.
I hope they sign Machado and trade for Trout. Then if possible, sign couple of relievers.
I think they will go for a left handed starter to put in between Nola and Arrieta rather than sign more relievers.
When signing position players to long term deals the american league has a decided advantage. They can afford to give a couple extra years to a player knowing the dh is available to rest older players or as a fall back if injuries shortens their time on the field. I see both machado and harper going to the al for this reason. For the length of time i keep hearing playing on a team that does not make the playoffs yearly is not appealing. Taking into account their positions and individual team payrolls narrows the field down as well. Either could still wind up in the nl but i think it is not likely.
Signing a lengthy high priced contract with a currently contending team can be a problem as well. Chances are those clubs are already stacked with multiple All-Star caliber players and such a deal can create an albatross in just a few years when they might need to consider a cyclable reload, retool or rebuild. A mega-contract for the AAV and length projected for both Bryce Harper and Manny Machado might be more beneficial to a team on the cusp of contention with minimal payroll obligations like the Phillies, Padres or White Sox. It is a conundrum and not just relegated to which league a club is in although that is a fair consideration as well, especially for an already defensively “challenged” player like Harper.