Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Archives for 2019

Hanser Alberto: Trade Piece?

By | at

Infielder Hanser Alberto had an extreme amount of difficulty sticking with one organization last offseason. The Yankees claimed Alberto off waivers from the Rangers on Nov. 2, only to designate him for assignment Jan. 11. The Orioles claimed Alberto that same day but designated him Feb 19. The Giants claimed Alberto on Feb. 22 and then designated him March 1, at which point the Orioles scooped him back up.

Thankfully for Alberto, the O’s haven’t subjected him to the waiver process again since they reclaimed him. Rather, rebuilding Baltimore has seen Alberto turn into a useful part of its roster since earning a season-opening spot on it. That doesn’t mean Alberto is there to stay, though. On the contrary, the 26-year-old may now be a trade chip for the club with the July 31 deadline approaching, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com observes.

The Orioles’ version of Alberto has been substantially more productive than the player the Rangers got in parts of three seasons from 2015-18. During that stretch of 192 plate appearances, Alberto mustered an unfathomably awful wRC+ (9), batted .192/.210/.231 and failed to hit a home run. This year, though, Alberto has been 10 times the offensive player by wRC+ (91), having slashed .306/.325/.402 with five homers across 304 PA.

Although much improved, Alberto’s 2019 numbers still aren’t all that exciting – especially taking his .311 weighted on-base average/.292 xwOBA and meek 83 mph average exit velocity into account. On the other hand, the righty has terrorized southpaw pitchers, whom he has teed off on for a .397/.407/.512 line (144 wRC+) in 121 trips to the plate. The problem is that those numbers are rather unlikely to hold. After all, Alberto has benefited from a .438 batting average on balls in play versus LHPs, and has drawn just one walk against them.

Along with his serviceable bottom-line production at the plate, Alberto has provided the Orioles a credible defender at second and third base. Alberto has essentially been a scratch fielder at each of those spots in 50 and 36 appearances, respectively, per Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating. And for what it’s worth, he’s a well-liked, high-energy clubhouse presence, according to Kubatko.

The Orioles value Alberto’s on- and off-field contributions, and as someone who won’t reach arbitration for the first time until the offseason, they don’t have to trade him. But “Alberto’s value may never reach this level again,” Kubatko writes, which could persuade the club to deal him for something almost five months after getting him for nothing.

Can The Phillies Justify A Win-Now Deadline?

By | at

It’s obvious on the face of the standings that the Phillies haven’t been playing great ball. After setting the pace in the NL East through early June, the club took a spill (dropping 11 of 13) and has limped along ever since at about a .500 rate of play. The Braves are largely cruising. The Nats just streaked past. The Mets are even back on their feet and in pursuit.

This is what all of that looks like in Fangraphs form: a bunch of jagged lines that signify devastating changes to the Phillies’ odds of appearing in the postseason. That chart, at least, shows that there’s still at least something like a one-in-five chance … at a coin-flip game to get a full playoff series. The division is the real prize. How are things looking there? Well, the descending jags are beginning to flatline.

More worrying still is the fact that the Phillies’ record may not even accurately reflect the team’s true state. Entering play today, the club was carrying a negative-20 run differential. By measure of BaseRuns — which looks not at actual runs or actual wins, but reasonably expected runs (and by translation wins) based upon underlying performance — the Phils have outperformed their theoretical win expectancy by a whopping seven games. The good news is that the team does not actually sit five games below .500. The bad news is that they have (broadly speaking) played like such a team, and project to play sub-.500 ball going forward.

I can already hear some readers’ alarm bells going off … what happened didn’t really quite happen? you can predict the future? Phooey! None of those fancy stats are gospel, true, though they do provide critical context for understanding outcomes that necessarily depend upon a vast array of factors. And it’s not as if other means of analyzing the situation provide cause for greater optimism. Phillies pitchers — especially starters — are giving up home runs by the bucket. (Analytical aside: the Phils’ three most successful starters — Aaron Nola, Zach Eflin, and Jake Arrieta — have also outperformed their FIP/xFIP/SIERA numbers.) Closer Hector Neris is suddenly on the ropes. What appeared at the outset to be a loaded lineup is now without one of its best pieces (Andrew McCutchen) and carries a distinctively middle-of-the-road .243/.322/.420 collective output.

This is a club that entered the season with huge expectations after promising its fans significant spending and going on to secure the services of McCutchen, Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Jean Segura, and David Robertson. It’s not as if it’s totally out of the picture. Still, it doesn’t feel like a time for anything close to an all-in push.

And yet … here we are, reading about the Phillies’ broad canvassing of the starting pitching market. The club is reportedly looking into just about every starting pitcher named on MLBTR’s list of the top sixty free agents — including pure rental players, highly paid veterans, and younger/more controllable hurlers. From public reports, anyway, it seems to be the sort of open-ended approach that would seem better suited to a club in a clearer position to contend.

But it may be that we shouldn’t read too much into the laundry list of starting pitching targets. It would behoove the club to have a good sense of the price of all the arms, after all. And at some point, it’d be worth going ahead with a move even for a pending free agent if the acquisition cost is low enough. There’s no particular reason to believe the team would act in an overly rash manner, even if it has an obvious interest in seeing through its significant offseason investments. President Andy MacPhail and GM Matt Klentak have plenty of contractual security, so their incentives should be fully in line with those of the organization itself.

Notably, the club’s leadership hasn’t been shy about acknowledging the predicament. MacPhail seems quite realistic about the situation. It’s no question whether the team is “one trade away from the World Series,” he said: “We don’t believe that. I don’t believe that.” Well then. That doesn’t mean that the club won’t pursue additions, but the declining postseason odds will clearly influence the nature of the pursuit. MacPhail suggested the Phils would “be more judicious with [their] playing talent,” while noting that such hesitancy to give up high-end prospects “doesn’t mean you can’t make a deal where a component is taking on somebody’s salary.”

So, where do and where should the Phillies stand when the deadline hits? That’ll obviously depend upon the final run of play, but presuming the situation remains roughly the same, there’s little doubt that a true all-in deadline approach would be unwise. The odds of a division title are minuscule; chances at a Wild Card are rather low. That said, there’s unquestionably value in pursuing even a play-in opportunity. Drawing fans down the stretch, convincing season-ticket holders to re-up for 2020, maintaining roster morale, preparing for another offseason of player recruiting (free agents and extension targets), adding players who’ll feature on future rosters … there are causes aplenty even beyond that of boosting the odds of a postseason berth itself. And even a Wild Card comes with an approximately 50/50 shot at earning a full series … and who knows from there?

What’s most interesting here is the fact that the Phillies are obviously especially willing to throw their financial heft into acquisition efforts. That may not be possible for quite a few other teams — even traditional big spenders have their limits and are facing luxury tax concerns — and opens up many creative possibilities. Perhaps a rental target or controllable starter could be packaged with a more expensive (albeit potentially still useful) player to reduce the prospect burden. Or the Philadelphia org can simply focus in on the higher-priced segment of the market as things shake out under the pressure of the impending deadline. Plus, while the Phils are seemingly clinging to prospects … who isn’t? There’s plenty of reason to think they can compete with cash — and, more importantly, that it could make bottom-line sense from both a financial and baseball sense to do so. If they fall short in their pursuit of new arms, the Philadelphia front office can sleep easy knowing that it did its best … and, quite possibly, forced the club’s long-term rivals to pony up additional young talent to shut down the 2019 Phils.

Latest On Steve Pearce

By | at

Steve Pearce proved to be a brilliant in-season pickup by the Red Sox a year ago, when they acquired him from the division-rival Blue Jays in late June. Pearce not only put up excellent regular-season production with Boston, but the first baseman dominated during the Fall Classic to earn World Series MVP honors in a five-game victory over the Dodgers. The Red Sox and Pearce could have gone their separate ways then and ended their relationship on a high note, but a couple weeks after the team won its latest title, it re-signed the 36-year-old to a $6.25MM guarantee.

While Boston undoubtedly expected the good times to continue rolling for Pearce in 2019, he has instead trudged through a season defined by underperformance and injuries. After starting the campaign on the shelf because of a strained left calf, Pearce debuted in early April and proceeded to hit a ghastly .180/.245/.258 (29 wRC+) with one home run in 99 plate appearances through May. The Red Sox sent Pearce back to the IL on June 1 with back problems. Pearce hasn’t returned to action since then, owing largely to the posterior ligament knee injury he suffered while on a rehab stint. A month and a half later, he’s still not slated to make his way back to the majors anytime soon, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.

Manager Alex Cora issued an update Thursday on Pearce, saying he’s “just rehabbing” at the team’s complex in Fort Myers, Fla., and not “even close to (being) back.” As of now, Pearce isn’t “participating in many baseball activities” and is only hitting off a tee, Smith writes.

The absences of Pearce and Mitch Moreland (who has taken two at-bats since late May) have thrown a wrench into the plans Boston had at first base entering the season. The righty-swinging Pearce and the left-handed Moreland were supposed to be the Red Sox’s solution at the position. Rookie Michael Chavis, who had been at second base, has instead emerged as the team’s starter at first with Pearce and Moreland unavailable. Meanwhile, Brock Holt and Marco Hernandez have taken the reins at second, which played a part in the Red Sox’s decision to to designate struggling veteran Eduardo Nunez for assignment this week. Moreland’s due back soon, Smith notes, though it’s not yet clear how the Red Sox will dole out playing time at first and second when he returns.

How Good Is Shane Greene?

By | at

With the Tigers mired in a rebuild and closer Shane Greene in his second-last year of team control, the right-hander ranks as one of baseball’s most obvious trade candidates heading into the July 31 deadline. While little has gone right this year for Detroit, whose 29-62 record stands as the game’s second worst, Greene has been one of the team’s few bright lights. That’s especially encouraging for the Tigers considering they may be on the verge of dealing the All-Star to a contender.

A Tiger since they acquired him from the Yankees in a noteworthy three-team trade entering the 2015 season, Greene’s tenure in the Motor City has been a mixed bag. He was subpar in his first year with the Tigers while mostly working as a starter, and has proved inconsistent as a reliever since then. Greene’s career has continued its up-and-down trajectory this season, but 2019 has checked in on the overwhelmingly positive side in terms of results. The 30-year-old owns a near-flawless 1.06 ERA in 34 innings, during which he has converted 22 of 24 saves. Greene has racked up those numbers on a reasonable $4MM salary, which should only add to his appeal for reliever-needy contenders.

Chris McCosky of the Detroit News reported last week that interested clubs view Greene as more a setup man than a closer, despite the success he has enjoyed putting a bow on rare Detroit wins this year.

The question is: Would an acquiring team be getting a real difference-maker in Greene? His ERA says yes, as do Greene’s 9.26 K/9, 2.65 BB/9, career-high 53.4 percent groundball rate and improved swinging-strike and contact rates. Furthermore, thanks in part to a personal-best 15.2 percent infield fly mark, Greene’s hard-contact rate against has tumbled from 37.5 percent last year to 27.3 this season. According to FanGraphs, just 11 relievers have yielded a lower hard-hit percentage than Greene.

Statcast only places Greene in the league’s 49th percentile in the hard-hit department, though it assigns him far better reviews in the expected slugging percentage (67th), expected weighted on-base average (80th) and expected batting average (86th) categories. It also indicates Greene has made changes to his pitch mix compared to last year, having upped his cutter usage by almost 6 percent and thrown his slider 4 percent less. Greene’s slider hasn’t produced poor results, but his cutter and his main pitch – a sinker – have been particularly tough on opposing hitters. Thus far, they’ve managed sub-.200 wOBAs against the two. Those offerings have helped Greene stymie same-handed batters, who have logged a pitiful .170 wOBA against him, and also keep lefties at bay (.271).

As effective as Greene has been in 2019, there are some red flags accompanying his performance. For one, his velocity isn’t quite where it was in 2018. Beyond that, it appears Greene has benefited greatly from luck. ERA estimators FIP (3.66), xFIP (4.04) and SIERA (3.62) paint Greene as something closer to a useful reliever than a a true shutdown option, and the .179 batting average on balls in play he has surrendered to opposing hitters likely won’t hold. The number’s a whopping 125 points below Greene’s career norm (.304). Allowing less impactful contact has helped Greene sustain that figure to this point, granted, but it’s nevertheless a good bet to climb as the season progresses. Likewise, Greene’s 86.1 percent strand rate – which is a lofty 17-plus points higher than his usual (69.0) – may regress toward his lifetime mean over the next couple months. Plus, although Greene’s aforementioned xwOBA (.282) is among the league’s best, it’s still 66 points higher than the real wOBA he has given up (.216).

It’s clear there are no shortage of reasons for optimism and pessimism in regards to Greene’s 2019 output. It’s also obvious Greene’s a capable major league reliever, though, and with another year of arbitration control left, he’ll be in demand around the deadline.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Mets Notes: Trades, Nimmo, O’Rourke

By | at

The latest on the Mets….

  • The Mets entered the day with a 44-51 record, they’re still only five games out of a wild card spot in the congested National League.  With this in mind, the New York Post’s Joel Sherman suggests that if the team isn’t going to really blow things up by dealing Noah Syndergaard or Jacob deGrom, they might as well hang onto other veteran trade chips like Zack Wheeler, Todd Frazier, and Jason Vargas (none of whom are likely to generate much in the way of a return at the deadline, with Wheeler’s value in question due to injury) to try and contend down the stretch.  With so much parity in the NL, “why not just play this out, rather than performing a fan-angering salary dump for minimal prospect return?” Sherman asks.
  • Brandon Nimmo is able to resume some baseball activities after the Mets shut him down last month, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports (Twitter link).  While Nimmo probably won’t start a rehab assignment “until August at the earliest,” it’s still a positive step forward given that Nimmo has been suffering from a bulging cervical disc in his neck.  It would seem like there’s at least some chance Nimmo gets back onto the field this season, though the Mets will obviously be careful with the outfielder given the delicate nature of the injury.
  • Ryan O’Rourke was designated for assignment by the Mets in late June, and learned about the move in unfortunate fashion, Syracuse.com’s Lindsay Kramer writes.  O’Rourke wasn’t told about the transaction by a coach or staff member, but rather via Twitter after a teammate showed him the news prior to a game.  The left-hander ended up remaining in the organization at Triple-A Syracuse after being outrighted off the 40-man roster in late June, though O’Rourke took advantage of his brief hiatus in a unique manner.  He ended up playing for Team Ireland in the qualifying rounds of the 2019 European Baseball Championship, appearing in two games for his grandfather’s home country.   “I was so happy. It was one of the better experiences in baseball of my entire life….I’m not representing myself, I’m representing my parents, my grandparents. I’m representing a country. I’ve never represented a country before when I played so it was really cool,” O’Rourke said.

Washington’s Yan Gomes Acquisition Isn’t Working Out

By | at

The Nationals were one of eight teams whose catchers posted a sub-replacement fWAR in 2018, which led general manager Mike Rizzo to make over the position entering this season. Rizzo said goodbye to Matt Wieters and Pedro Severino, the Nationals’ primary catchers last year, and brought in Kurt Suzuki in free agency and Yan Gomes in a trade with the Indians. Both pickups looked fine on paper, and Suzuki has played pretty well through the first four months into the season. Gomes, on the other hand, has been stunningly bad.

Set to turn 32 this Friday, Gomes was a valuable backstop in Cleveland, where he totaled 13.7 fWAR from 2013-18. But Gomes has taken massive steps back in D.C., where he has accounted for minus-0.2 fWAR and mustered an unsightly .202/.298/.290 batting line with three home runs in 208 plate appearances. Gomes’ 54 wRC+ is barely more than half the 101 he managed last year with the Tribe, and his .087 ISO ranks ninth worst in the majors among 262 hitters who have amassed at least 200 trips to the plate.

To make matters worse, Gomes hasn’t been the same caliber of defender he was just a year ago, when he ranked as one of Baseball Prospectus’ premier catchers (including in the pitch-framing department). Although Gomes has thrown out a strong 36 percent of would-be base stealers – up from 29 percent in 2018 – BP regards the Washington version as a below-average backstop and a subpar framer. Meanwhile, Statcast only puts Gomes’ in the majors’ 36th percentile when it comes to stealing strikes.

Statcast also thinks little of Gomes’ offense, placing him in the 26th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, expected slugging percentage, expected batting average and expected weighted-on base average. There isn’t a huge difference between Gomes’ xwOBA (.276) and real wOBA (.261), which suggests a major rebound isn’t coming at the plate. FanGraphs offers even more bad news, noting Gomes’ hard-hit percentage (25.2) has dropped exactly 18 points since 2018 and ranks third last in the majors. Gomes is hitting far more ground balls and far fewer line drives than he did a year ago, which predictably hasn’t been a recipe for success.

If you’re holding out for encouraging signs, there are a few, starting with Gomes’ K/BB ratio. He has struck out in 23.1 percent of plate appearances, down from 25.8 percent or more in each of the previous four seasons. Moreover, Gomes’ walk rate, 10.1 percent, is a career best and almost doubles his lifetime mark (5.4). He’s also swinging and missing less than he has in recent years and making much more out-of-zone contact than ever. And Gomes’ .258 batting average on balls in play, a 37-point decrease from his lifetime figure (.295), indicates he has dealt with some poor fortune this year.

Even if Gomes’ BABIP does normalize as the season goes on, odds are the Nationals aren’t going to get the 2018 All-Star version they wanted. To this point, Gomes has surprisingly been a less valuable player than right-hander Jefry Rodriguez, whom the Nationals traded to the Indians for him and who hasn’t exactly been a world-beater in his own right. The Nats also parted with outfield prospect Daniel Johnson, a 24-year-old who has notched quality numbers in his first Triple-A action this season, and young infielder Andruw Monasterio.

Waving goodbye to Rodriguez, Johnson and Monasterio to acquire Gomes was an understandable decision for Washington at the time, but the move hasn’t yielded dividends thus far for the playoff hopefuls. Unless Gomes revisits his prior form during the final couple months of the campaign, the Nationals may buy him out in the offseason in lieu of exercising a $9MM club option for 2020.

Minor MLB Transactions: 7/18/19

By | at

The latest minor moves from around baseball…

  • Right-hander Clayton Blackburn announced his retirement from baseball, as per his Instagram page.  Originally a 16th-round pick for the Giants in 2011, Blackburn posted a 3.46 ERA, 8.2 K/9, and 4.05 K/BB rate over 751 career minor league frames, and he cracked Baseball Prospectus’ top-100 prospects list prior to the 2013 season.  That promise didn’t result in any official MLB appearances, however, as Blackburn received call-ups to the Giants in 2016 and the Rangers in 2017 but he never got into a game, thus making him a so-called “phantom Major Leaguer.”  After undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2018, Blackburn has decided to hang up his cleats at age 26.  We at MLBTR wish Blackburn the best in his post-playing career.

Drew Smyly Elects Free Agency

By | at

5:29pm: The Phillies have interest in Smyly, according to NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury (Twitter link).

1:10pm: Veteran left-hander Drew Smyly has opted out of his minor league contract with the Brewers, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (on Twitter). Smyly had signed a minor league pact with Milwaukee back on July 1 after being cut loose from the Rangers.

Smyly made three starts with Milwaukee’s top affiliate in San Antonio, where he allowed seven runs on 10 hits (two homers) and three walks with 18 strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings of work. It’s a small but slightly more encouraging showing than he had with Texas earlier in the year. Smyly, pitching in the big leagues for the first time since 2017 Tommy John surgery, was tattooed for an 8.42 ERA in 51 1/3 innings as a Ranger. While he averaged better than a strikeout per inning there, Smyly also walked 34 batters (6.0 BB/9) and served up a staggering 19 home runs (3.33 HR/9).

Prior to undergoing surgery, Smyly displayed a knack for missing bats and strong control skills, but home runs have long been an issue for him. He’s always been an extreme fly-ball pitcher, and the league-wide uptick in home runs hasn’t done him any favors in 2019. Smyly’s average fastball velocity is back to its career norm, and he’s avoided any trips to the injured list thus far, so it seems as though he’s back to full strength following that surgery. He’ll head back to the open market in search of a new opportunity with a club that has its eyes on some affordable rotation depth; any team that signs Smyly would only owe him the prorated league minimum for any time spent in the Majors.

Giants Add Jandel Gustave To 40-Man Roster

By | at

The Giants announced a set of roster moves today, including the news that right-hander Jandel Gustave has been added to their 40-man roster and assigned to Triple-A.  Travis Bergen was moved to the 60-day injured list to create a 40-man spot for Gustave.  In other news, the Giants sent left-hander Andrew Suarez to Triple-A and called up southpaw Williams Jerez.

Gustave signed a minor league deal with San Francisco last winter, and has already spent much of his season at Triple-A Sacramento.  The 40-man roster placement does put Gustave a bit closer, at least on paper, to making his first MLB appearance since 2017 when he was a member of the Astros.  Gustave tossed 20 1/3 innings for Houston from 2016-17, though Tommy John surgery in June 2017 brought things to a halt.  After missing all of 2018 rehabbing, Gustave has looked shaky in his return to the mound this year, with a 6.85 ERA over 22 1/3 IP for Sacramento.

Suarez burst onto the big league scene with a solid 2018 rookie season, posting a 4.49 ERA, 2.89 K/BB rate, and 7.3 K/9 over 160 1/3 innings out of the Giants’ rotation.  Thus far in 2019, however, Suarez hasn’t followed up whatsoever, as he has appeared in only three games (two starts) and has been hit hard to the tune of a 10.03 ERA over 11 2/3 frames.

Red Sox Likely To Activate Nathan Eovaldi On The Weekend

By | at

Starter-turned-possible closer Nathan Eovaldi will join the Red Sox for their upcoming series in Baltimore beginning on Friday, as per multiple reporters (including MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo).  Eovaldi may not necessarily be activated from the 60-day injured list on Friday, since his final minor league rehab outing came today and the Sox could be hesitant about having Eovaldi pitch on consecutive days in the wake of elbow surgery in April.

Eovaldi tossed just 21 innings (of 6.00 ERA ball) before going under the knife this season, and rather than extend his rehab process by stretching him out in preparation to start, Boston will instead try to solve its season-long issues at the back of the bullpen by deploying Eovaldi as a closer.  It’s a creative solution that has some real upside, though using Eovaldi as a reliever surely wasn’t on Boston’s mind when the club re-signed Eovaldi to a four-year/$68MM deal last winter.

How Eovaldi performs even in the short term will be of significant consequence to the Red Sox as they approach the trade deadline.  President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski suggested that the team’s recent acquisition of Andrew Cashner to address the back of the rotation (more or less filling the hole left by Eovaldi) could potentially be the sum total of Boston’s pre-deadline moves.  It’s possible Dombrowski’s stance could change should Eovaldi get off to a rough beginning out of the bullpen, even if it’s adding one more lower-tier arm to further bolster the pen.

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top