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Aroldis Chapman Refutes Report That He Expects To Opt Out After Season

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2:34pm: Chapman made clear to reporters today that he has yet to make any such decision, as MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch was among those to report on Twitter. He says he has not even yet discussed the matter and calls it “completely false” to suggest he has decided to opt out.

2:23pm: A confidant of Yankees lefty Aroldis Chapman says that the star reliever is “one million percent” likely to exercise his opt-out clause and return to the open market at the end of the season, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link).

It’s not really surprising to hear such a stance from the 31-year-old fireballer. He is owed another $30MM over two years on the contract he inked to return to New York after the 2017 season. But as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes wrote just yesterday, in ranking Chapman sixth among pending free agents, it seems reasonable to think he could secure a rather significantly larger contract on the open market — even given that he’ll certainly be forced to reject a qualifying offer and carry the burden of draft compensation if he opts out.

True, Chapman is exhibiting a typical velocity reduction at this stage of his career. But in his case that means he’s averaging 98.2 mph with his four-seamer — good for fourth among all qualified relievers in baseball. Chapman is also still sitting in triple-digits (second in baseball) with a two-seam offering that he has gone to more than ever.

It is notable that Chapman carries only a 12.7% swinging-strike rate, lower than any of his single-season marks. But he’s still carrying an excellent 2.45 ERA with 13.0 K/9 and 2.9 K/9. Notably, that walk rate is much better than Chapman’s typical 4+ rate. His first-pitch strike rate sits at 63.2%, a personal high.

Some might point to the Craig Kimbrel contract as reason for Chapman to think twice. But that’s an odd interpretation, particularly considering that the latter has not (to this point, at least) shown the kinds of worrying signs that Kimbrel did in his platform season. Kimbrel also could have landed a larger deal had things shaken out differently in the way his market situation unfolded. Oh, and the contract he did sign? He ultimately took down $43MM over three seasons, the first of which he only played in the second half. That’s clearly a better deal for a relief pitcher of this age than Chapman’s remaining 2/30.

Chapman also won’t face immense competition from the remainder of the free agent market. Kenley Jansen seems less likely to opt out, as he’s not only owed more ($38MM) over the two years of his deal but has shown more worrying declines in velocity and some key peripherals. Otherwise, Will Smith does provide interested teams with another high-end lefty reliever to consider, but he lacks Chapman’s long track record of consistent dominance. And it isn’t as if both can’t find hefty paydays.

For the Yankees, a Chapman opt-out would create some interesting choices. The club would certainly have internal alternatives, even with Dellin Betances (who’s still working towards his season debut) also set to test the open market. Veterans Zack Britton and Adam Ottavino have experience in the ninth, while Tommy Kahnle and Chad Green have the kind of stuff that teams like to see in that spot. It’s possible the Yanks could look into Smith and explore the trade market. And as Dierkes noted in his writeup on the top pending free agents, it’s not hard to imagine a scenario where the Yanks forestall an opt-out by adding to the existing contract — or simply beat the rest of the market to bring the power southpaw back to the Bronx.

Giants Reportedly Still Plan To Sell Despite Recent Hot Streak

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The Giants have won eight of their past 10 games and are suddenly within three games of an NL Wild Card spot, but ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes in his latest 10 Degrees column that the team still plans to operate as a seller. The only real uncertainty surrounding team legend Madison Bumgarner, per the report, is where he’ll land.

“San Francisco’s recent success isn’t throwing a wrench in the team’s trade-Bumgarner-and-all-the-relievers plan,” writes Passan. The Giants, of course, have multiple intriguing bullpen pieces to market beyond Bumgarner. Will Smith is the top rental reliever available, while Sam Dyson is intriguing as a player who is both performing well and controlled through 2020. Southpaw Tony Watson should also draw interest, although as MLBTR detailed earlier this season, his contract isn’t nearly as affordable as some might think due to the large number of incentives he’s reached. He’s already at $8.5MM, and if Watson pitches in 14 more games this year, his salary will check in at a hefty $10.5MM.

Interestingly, at just about the same time Passan’s report hit the wire, Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi was presenting a less declarative stance — at least with the public. In an appearance on KNBR radio this morning (link via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area), Zaidi suggested that he doesn’t take opportunities at the postseason for granted. “Every pennant race and every opportunity you have to get to the playoffs has a ton of value,” said Zaidi. “It has a ton of value to the fans and the organization, and we don’t take that lightly.”

Obviously, it behooves any baseball operations head to take such a tone when his club is even on the periphery of contending. The “never say never” adage probably applies to the current iteration of the Giants. For instance, it’s difficult to imagine them selling in an extreme scenario where they rattle off another 10 or 11 consecutive victories to surge past the .500 mark and into Wild Card position.

However, the outlook for a playoff berth still isn’t favorable. The Giants need to overtake five teams and then hold that ground. Even then, they’d be faced with a one-game playoff against a second Wild Card winner that is likely not quite as patched together as the San Francisco club. There’d be no guarantee of aligning their rotation so that Bumgarner could start a theoretical Wild Card game, either, as the Giants would merely need to focus on winning every game in a tightly contested race.

While it’s conceptually possible for the Giants to hold onto Bumgarner but still trade other pieces, that scenario feels like a stretch. It’s true that Bumgarner would be a lock to turn down a qualifying offer, thus assuring the Giants of at least a compensatory draft pick. That’s less true of Smith, though, and not even in the realm of possibility for Watson. Keeping Bumgarner but trading Smith and Watson wouldn’t be a wholehearted pursuit of a postseason bid, and keeping all their chips only to collapse in August represents a worst-case scenario — a massive missed opportunity to bolster an ailing farm system.

An August collapse is hardly out of the question either. Red-hot Alex Dickerson is riding a .455 BABIP since joining the Giants — a pace he cannot possibly sustain. In fact, over their current 10-3 stretch, the Giants have seven regulars whose average on balls in play is north of .350 — and that doesn’t even count Evan Longoria, who erupted for six home runs in 11 games after previously hitting seven in 72 contests before landing on the injured list.

It seems clear that the Giants have a better roster now than in April, when they were cycling through the likes of Connor Joe, Michael Reed, Mac Williamson and others in the outfield and receiving career-worst levels of performance from veterans Gerardo Parra and Yangervis Solarte. At the same time, the Giants would probably need another 39 wins to have a puncher’s chance at the second NL Wild Card spot, as that’d give them the same 85-win total with which the Twins sneaked into a one-game showdown in 2017. Reaching that level would mean a .582 winning percentage from here on out — a pace that only the Yankees, Twins, Astros, Dodgers and Braves have managed thus far.

The Giants would need this iteration of the club to play like a top-six team in all of baseball for a total period of three months in order to make a playoff run seem plausible, and it’s not only possible but likely that they’d need even more than that hypothetical total of 85 victories to actually land in the Wild Card game. Viewed through that lens, it’s not hard to see why the team isn’t rushing to change course after a two-week hot streak against mostly mediocre teams — even if it’s a bitter pill for fans to swallow. Zaidi’s comments do leave the door cracked in the case of another two weeks of .600-or-better play, and probably signify that deals won’t come early, but they surely do not signify a committed change to the club’s sell-side trajectory.

Blue Jays Acquire Wilmer Font

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The Blue Jays have acquired right-hander Wilmer Font from the Mets in exchange for cash, per announcements from both organizations. New York designated Font for assignment last Friday.

The Mets acquired Font, 29, from the Rays in exchange for 19-year-old righty Neraldo Catalina early in the season to add some depth to a beleaguered pitching staff. He made a few spot starts early in his time with the club but settled into a relief role with uninspiring results. In 31 total innings as a Met, Font logged a 4.94 ERA with 24 strikeouts against 13 walks and two hit batters. Font also served up eight long balls in that short time with the Mets.

Despite his lack of success in the Majors, however, Font keeps intriguing clubs around the league. He’s been traded from the Dodgers to the A’s to the Rays to the Mets and now the Jays without ever even being exposed to outright waivers. He does average 94 mph on a heater he complements with multiple breaking pitches, and Font has experience as an opener, a traditional starter and a reliever, so he’s comfortable in a variety of roles. The Jays will become the fifth team to try to coax quality results out of Font since the 2018 campaign opened, and as a rebuilding club they can certainly afford him a decent leash if they see fit.

Reds Select Juan Graterol

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The Reds announced that they’ve selected the contract of catcher Juan Graterol from Triple-A Louisville and placed closer Raisel Iglesias on the paternity list in a corresponding move to open a spot on the active roster. Cincinnati’s 40-man roster is now full.

Graterol, 30, was an October waiver claim by the Reds and was later retained after being outrighted off the 40-man roster. Regarded as a sound defensive backstop, he’s posted a .249/.301/.325 batting line in 226 plate appearances with the Reds’ top affiliate this season.

Cincinnati currently has Tucker Barnhart on the injured list, which has left Curt Casali and Kyle Farmer as the primary catchers. However, Casali has been a bit banged up in recent days and isn’t in the lineup today, so Graterol will likely be the backup to Farmer for the time being. In 111 MLB plate appearances, Graterol is a .217/.227/.274 hitter.

Phillies Reportedly Extended Klentak, MacPhail Prior To Season

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The Phillies never announced contractual lengths for president Andy MacPhail or general manager Matt Klentak upon hiring the pair to spearhead the organization’s baseball operations department, and Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports (subscription required) that the team was similarly quiet about a pair of previously unannounced extensions for that duo. According to Gelb, MacPhail signed a three-year extension back in 2017 that runs through the 2021 season, while Klentak was extended through the 2022 campaign four months ago.

The extension for Klentak came on the heels of an offseason in which he aggressively reshaped the Phillies’ lineup by signing Bryce Harper and Andrew McCutchen while acquiring several players via trade (headlined by J.T. Realmuto and Jean Segura). The Philadelphia offense has improved in 2019, though probably not quite to the extent the front office had hoped. Phillies hitters have posted a combined .245/.323/.423 batting line and scored 460 runs — up from .236/.319/.390 and 411 runs scored at this same point in 2018.

Philadelphia’s defense has seemingly improved as well. After turning in a stunning -146 mark in Defensive Runs Saved and a -8.0 UZR/150 in 2018, the Phillies have logged a collective +3 DRS and +5.1 UZR/150 to this point in the 2019 campaign.

Unfortunately for the Phillies, the pitching staff has gone in the opposite direction. The offseason efforts put into bullpen acquisitions have been torpedoed by a near-unparalleled level of injury among the Phillies’ relief corps. David Robertson, for instance, has been baseball’s bullpen iron man over the past decade. However, since signing a two-year deal with the Phillies due in no small part to that durability, he’s been limited to 6 2/3 innings as a result of elbow troubles. High-priced bullpen pickups from the 2017-18 offseason like Tommy Hunter and Pat Neshek haven’t been able to stay healthy in 2019. Promising younger arms like Seranthony Dominguez (UCL injury), Victor Arano (arthroscopic elbow surgery) and Edubray Ramos (shoulder impingement) have also fallen victim to injury.

As one might expect of a team that has essentially lost an entire bullpen’s worth of solid MLB arms, Philadelphia relievers are tied for the game’s fifth-worst ERA (4.97). But the more alarming struggles have arguably come in a rotation that went largely unaddressed in the offseason. While the modest price the club paid to extend ace Aaron Nola still looks like a shrewd move, the 26-year-old hasn’t been as dominant in 2019 as he was in 2018. Jake Arrieta, meanwhile, is pitching through a bone spur in his elbow with understandably mixed results. Zach Eflin has been solid but not spectacular. Beyond that trio, the Phillies have received a combined ERA well north of 5.00 from the group of Vince Velasquez, Nick Pivetta and Jerad Eickhoff.

The end result is a Phillies club that has underachieved to the point of falling 8.5 games back of the division-leading Braves. Philadelphia is still three games over .500 and holds a half-game lead over Milwaukee for the second spot in the NL Wild Card race, so the season is far from lost. But the quietly extended front office regime will also have its hands full in endeavoring to address some of the flaws that have led to the current predicament. Gelb writes that, to this point, the Phillies “have not displayed an overwhelming sense of urgency” in their efforts to do so, although they’re hardly the only team that has not jumped into action; to this point in the “trading season,” there have only been three deals of even moderate note consummated (Andrew Cashner, Homer Bailey and Martin Maldonado).

The extent to which the Phillies ramp up that level of aggression could well be dependent on the current roster’s play in the next couple of weeks, but it still seems likely that the club will function as a buyer in the next 14 days.

Pirates Halt Gregory Polanco’s Rehab Assignment

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The Pirates have shut down Gregory Polanco’s rehab assignment due to continued shoulder discomfort, director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk told reporters Wednesday (Twitter links via Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette).

It doesn’t sound as if the club is concerned about any potential structural damage in Polanco’s surgically repaired shoulder, as Tomczyk called the joint both “strong” and “stable” in making today’s announcement. “We just need to figure out the details of what’s causing the soreness and the discomfort in the back of the shoulder,” he added.

Polanco, 27, has been sidelined since late June due to inflammation in a left shoulder that required season-ending surgery in 2018. He beat the initially projected recovery timeline associated with that procedure by more than a month when he was reinstated from the injured list on April 22, but Polanco hasn’t been himself even when healthy in 2019. Through his first 167 trips to the plate, he’s batted just .242/.301/.425 — a significant departure from last year’s .254/.340/.499 output.

Potential complications in Polanco’s recovery are of particular note given the team’s wealth of outfielders. It’s been reported that Pittsburgh preferred to trade Corey Dickerson due to a surplus that existed with Dickerson, Polanco, Starling Marte, rookie Bryan Reynolds and resurgent veteran Melky Cabrera. Whether the club would be so willing to move Dickerson now that there are renewed questions about Polanco’s health will likely depend on the extent to which the ongoing shoulder troubles are expected to hinder Polanco. For the time being, there’s no timeline available on Polanco’s return to the lineup. He’s headed back to Pittsburgh, where he’ll presumably undergo further testing.

Mariners Receiving Trade Interest In Santana, Elias

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The Mariners, as one would expect with GM Jerry Dipoto at the helm, continue to be active in trade discussions and are receiving the most interest in outfielder Domingo Santana and lefty Roenis Elias, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required). Interest in Santana is strong enough that Seattle “will at least consider trading him,” Rosenthal writes.

Santana, 27 in early August, is in his first season with the Mariners after coming over from the Brewers in an offseason swap that sent Ben Gamel to Milwaukee. The slugger has been every bit as productive as Seattle could have reasonably hoped upon acquiring him, hitting at a .280/.346/.489 pace with 19 home runs, 19 doubles, a triple and six steals. Santana, though, has also fanned at a 29.5 percent clip and racked up more total strikeouts (122) than any player in Major League Baseball.

More concerning than Santana’s strikeouts, however, is his glovework in the outfield. Santana’s -14.4 Ultimate Zone Rating and -12 Outs Above Average are the worst marks of any outfielder in baseball. Only Colorado’s Ian Desmond (-16) has fared worse than Santana (-13) in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved. It’s not fully clear what has prompted the downturn in Santana’s defensive ratings. A year ago in Milwaukee, he drew above-average marks from all three of those metrics. And while those positive ratings look to be an outlier relative to the rest of his career, Santana has also never struggled anywhere close to this extent in seasons past.

Surely, some teams — particularly those in the NL — will be wary of Santana’s defense. But a club that could give Santana some time at designated hitter (or, speculatively, first base) and/or one that believes it has a solution to this season’s pronounced decline could hardly help but be intrigued by his bat. Santana has been an above-average hitter in every season he’s received regular playing time, and he’s controlled through the 2021 season at an affordable rate. This year’s home run and RBI totals will undoubtedly boost his salary in arbitration, but he’s earning just $1.95MM in 2019, so his forthcoming raise won’t make his salary burdensome. Santana has been good against right-handed pitching (.277/.338/.449) while obliterating lefties (.287/.374/.621), so he’d be of particular interest to a team that has been overmatched by opposing southpaws (e.g. Indians, Rockies).

As for Elias, MLBTR explored the left-hander’s likely trade candidacy at greater length last week, noting that while he’s not an elite reliever, he’s a solid arm whose modest $910K salary and remaining club control (also through 2021) should generate plenty of interest. Elias can miss bats, throws rather hard for a lefty and gets good spin on both his heater and curveball, all of which makes him an appealing asset. With so many teams around the league eyeing bullpen help and Dipoto never afraid to move a piece as he rebuilds the Seattle roster and farm system, it’d be more surprising to see the Mariners retain Elias than it would be to see him traded.

Injury Notes: Mondesi, Hembree, A’s, Webb

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Royals shortstop Adalberto Mondesi is headed for an MRI on his left shoulder after sustaining an injury on a diving attempt at a foul pop in yesterday’s game, writes Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com. Mondesi told teammate Hunter Dozier that he thinks he dislocated his shoulder upon impact, and the video of the injury makes it apparent that the shortstop immediately knew something was wrong in his shoulder; Mondesi briefly attempted to lift his left arm before leaving it still and motioning toward his left shoulder with his right hand. The Royals obviously aren’t contending for a postseason berth, and Mondesi himself was never a trade candidate, but a prolonged absence would still be deflating for the club. The 23-year-old Mondesi has slumped a bit lately but generally been a bright spot since claiming an everyday role in 2018. Dating back to last season, Mondesi is hitting .270/.299/.462 with 21 home runs and a whopping 62 stolen bases in roughly a full season’s worth of work (156 games, 648 plate appearances).

  • Red Sox right-hander Heath Hembree’s average fastball velocity is down roughly 2.5 mph since his return from the injured list, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com observes. As one would expect, Hembree’s decreased velocity and his potentially related struggles — three runs on three hits and no outs recorded Tuesday — raised red flags with manager Alex Cora and the coaching staff. Cora said after the game that the Sox would “check in” Hembree to gauge how he’s feeling, acknowledging some concern over the right-hander.
  • Stephen Piscotty, on the injured list due to a sprained MCL in his right knee, is confident that he can return to the Athletics on the shorter end of his initial four- to six-week timeline, writes Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. He could begin a minor league rehab stint next week and potentially return before month’s end. Meanwhile, lefty Sean Manaea will make a third rehab start with Class-A Stockton on Thursday before transferring his rehab to Triple-A — likely for another three starts. That’d put Manaea in line for an August return — an encouraging timeline for an A’s club that once feared he’d miss the entire 2019 season.
  • An MRI on Jacob Webb’s right elbow did not reveal any structural damage, writes Andrew Wagner of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. As such, the Braves are hopeful that the right-hander, who was placed on the IL with an elbow impingement Monday, can begin playing catch within a matter of days. Webb, 25, has been a breath of fresh air for an Atlanta ’pen that struggled early in 2019. Through 32 1/3 innings, he’s pitched to a 1.32 ERA with nine holds and a pair of saves. Beyond the bottom-line results, Webb’s numbers are a bit of a mixed bag. He sports pedestrian strikeout and walk rates, and he’s benefited from a .233 average on balls in play and an 86 percent strand rate. However, his swinging-strike rate (13.1 percent) suggests more punchouts could manifest in the future, and Statcast is bullish on the low quality of contact he’s allowed to opponents (.281 xwOBA).

Cubs Rumors: Trade Deadline, Maldonado, Caratini, Hamels

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The Cubs, buoyed by a weekend sweep of the Pirates and a dramatic walk-off victory Tuesday, are likely to approach the trade deadline as a buyer. However, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein tells Patrick Mooney of The Athletic (subscription required) that “it would take a special deal to sacrifice the very top of the farm system.” Epstein plainly states that while his goal is to win in 2019, the team is simultaneously trying to build its farm back up after years of aggressive, win-now deals. Epstein himself doesn’t list specific untouchables, though one can presume that players like Miguel Amaya, Nico Hoerner, Adbert Alzolay and Aramis Ademan will be tough to pry away. The Cubs have recently been linked to left-handed bullpen upgrades, and manager Joe Maddon spoke recently about his desire to add a more consistent veteran bat to the lineup.

More Cubs rumblings…

  • Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times dispels some speculative theories following the Cubs’ surprise acquisition of Martin Maldonado. Adding a third catcher to the mix doesn’t indicate that Willson Contreras’ foot injury is worse than has been suggested. To the contrary, Contreras said he expects to be cleared for full baseball activity by the end of the week, calling his injury a “bruise” after a visit with a specialist. The Maldonado trade was not made with the intent of either shopping Victor Caratini or optioning him back to Triple-A, Wittenmyer further reports. The Cubs have a history of acquiring a third catcher in recent August waiver periods — Bobby Wilson in 2018, Rene Rivera in 2017 — but there’s no opportunity to do so now that August trade waivers have been eliminated. “You can never have enough good catching, especially catching that is playoff-experienced and respected by veteran pitchers and coaches alike,” GM Jed Hoyer said following the Maldonado deal.
  • An early August return could be in the cards for lefty Cole Hamels, Wittenmyer writes in a second piece. Hamels will have a mound session today after a previous pair of throwing sessions from flat ground. The southpaw conceded that while he “hates it,” he’ll need to make at least one minor league rehab start because it’s the “smart thing to do.” If today’s session goes well, that could put him in line to reclaim his rotation spot on Aug. 3, tentatively putting his total absence at a period of about five weeks. Hamels, 35, had pitched to a terrific 2.98 ERA with 8.8 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 0.81 HR/9 and a 51.1 percent ground-ball rate in 99 2/3 innings when he landed on the IL late last month. He’d been doing his best work of the season prior to being shelved, making his absence all the more costly for the Cubs. In six June starts (37 innings), Hamels allowed five earned runs with a 37-to-9 K/BB ratio.

Rangers Considered Optioning Nomar Mazara, Ronald Guzman

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The Rangers welcomed back All-Star slugger Hunter Pence from the injured list Tuesday. Pence’s return forced the Rangers to option someone else from their 25-man roster to Triple-A Nashville. They chose outfielder Willie Calhoun, which left him “speechless.” Demoting Calhoun was not a slam-dunk decision on Texas’ part, though. The club also considered optioning two regulars – right fielder Nomar Mazara and first baseman Ronald Guzman – Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports.

Mazara was billed as a potential superstar coming up through the minors with the Rangers, so sending him back would have been especially notable on their part. To this point, however, Mazara hasn’t matched the hype since his initial promotion to the majors in 2016. The Rangers realize it.

“We want him to be better,” manager Chris Woodward told Wilson of Mazara. General manager Jon Daniels believes Mazara has “been a solid contributor,” but “he’s got another step he can get to.”

Daniels may be right – Mazara’s just 24 years old, after all. Still, it’s difficult to regard Mazara’s career .259/.319/.428 line (91 wRC+) and 1.7 fWAR across 2,077 plate appearances as anything but a disappointment. Likewise, his 2019 has been a letdown. As has typically been the case during his time in the majors, southpaw pitchers have handled the lefty-swinging Mazara. He hasn’t been great against righties either, though. In all, Mazara has hit a personal-worst .258/.310/.433 (86 wRC+) with 12 home runs and a replacement-level fWAR (0.1) over 361 trips to the plate. While Mazara’s on pace for his fourth straight 20-home run season, the HR-heavy nature of today’s game means that accomplishment doesn’t carry as much weight as it once did.

As for Guzman, it seems his position helped spare him of a demotion. Sending him down would’ve left the club with too many outfielders, Wilson notes. Also 24, Guzman has been a decidedly below-average offensive player (83 wRC+) since his 2018 debut. So far this season, Guzman has hit a punchless .201/.286/.413 (73 wRC+) with eight HRs and minus-0.4 fWAR in 217 PA. Like Mazara, lefties have stymied Guzman this year – he has batted .111/.203/.296 against them – which has led the Rangers to use righties Danny Santana and Logan Forsythe against them.

Barring in-season turnarounds from Mazara and Guzman, one wonders how much longer the Rangers will rely on them as key parts of their lineup. Mazara’s team control is running out – next year will be his penultimate season of arbitration eligibility – meaning he’s not guaranteed to stick in Texas for much longer as it is. Guzman won’t be eligible for arbitration until after 2020, so he could be with the organization for a while longer. However, a team with designs on contending can’t keep turning to an offensive albatross at a bat-first position.

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