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Phillies To Pursue Anthony Rendon

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The Phillies are preparing to make a run at free agent third baseman Anthony Rendon, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. He’s now the team’s top priority, per the report.

If there was any doubt as to the Phillies’ all-in intentions after they inked Zack Wheeler, this would seem to resolve it. The organization had spoken of its disinclination to part with draft compensation to land free agents. But having done so for Wheeler, adding another qualifying offer-declining free agent would actually cost less in draft capital.

Should the sides end up seeing eye to eye on a contract, Rendon would be following Bryce Harper in a dramatic trip north on I-95. It’s not difficult to see the match on paper. Rendon is an exceptional all-around player who’d fill the void at the hot corner for the Phils. The team grew tired of waiting for Maikel Franco to establish himself there and isn’t inclined to sit on its hands until top prospect Alec Bohm is ready.

Plenty of other teams (the incumbent Nationals among them) would likewise love to slot Rendon in at third base. He’s being courted by a variety of organizations. Rumors persist that Rendon would be interested in a somewhat shorter, higher-AAV contract — the precise opposite of the angle Harper took. Whether that sort of arrangement would suit the Philadelphia club’s needs isn’t known.

What is clear is that the involvement of the Phillies only serves to buttress Rendon’s market. Entering the winter, we predicted a $235MM guarantee over seven years. It seems that Rendon does indeed have that kind of earning power, even if he ultimately elects to take a shorter contract with greater single-season salaries.

Latest On Addison Russell

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DECEMBER 6: A source tells Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link) that the Tigers “have no interest” in Russell.

DECEMBER 5: The Tigers are among the teams interested in free-agent middle infielder Addison Russell, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. Russell joined the open market when the Cubs non-tendered him Monday.

There is no denying Russell is a major league-caliber middle infielder, but the significant baggage he comes with likely helped influence the Cubs to move on from him. The 25-year-old Russell sat out the early portion of last season after the league issued him a 40-game suspension for a violation of its domestic violence policy in October 2018. Once Russell came back from that alarming ban, opposing pitchers handled him. The former top prospect managed a weak .237/.308/.391 line with nine home runs across 241 plate appearances.

The Cubs, led by president of baseball operations Theo Epstein, have spoken well of Russell since they moved on from him. Nevertheless, he probably won’t do all that well in free agency, which helps make the rebuilding Tigers a fit for Russell. They don’t figure to spend that much in free agency after a 47-win campaign. General manager Al Avila has indicated that utilityman Niko Goodrum’s the favorite to man short in 2020, but even if that’s true, the Tigers have a clear need at second base. Russell has significant experience at both positions.

Rangers Sign Kyle Gibson

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Dec. 6: The Rangers have announced the deal. Their 40-man roster is up to 39 players.

Dec. 5: The official price tag is $28MM in guaranteed money over three years, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter links) with $3MM more available to Gibson in incentives.  The front-loaded deal will pay Gibson $11MM in 2020, $10MM in 2021, and $7MM in 2022.

Nov. 27: The Rangers are poised to make their first big addition of the winter, as they’ve reportedly agreed to a three-year, $30MM pact with free-agent right-hander Kyle Gibson. The agreement is pending completion of a physical. Gibson is a client of Rowley Sports Management.

Assuming the physical checks out, the agreement represents an important early marker on the market for starters. There’s a bevy of hurlers and quite a few teams working on matches at the outset of free agency. Gibson ranked 19th on MLBTR’s list of the top fifty free agents.

The reported three-year, $30MM term hews closely to the model that the Texas organization has adopted with Mike Minor and Lance Lynn in recent offseasons: identify an upside starter and pay a slight premium in terms of years in order to lure him into the fold. The total outlay doesn’t represent a large-scale risk for a team with the Rangers’ payroll track record — particularly with a new stadium in the offing in 2020. That said, Gibson isn’t exactly a sure bet to break out in the same manner as Minor and Lynn have in Arlington.

At 32 years of age, Gibson is older than many first-time free-agent pitchers — and not because he signed a contract extension that delayed his path to the open market. Injuries, most notably Tommy John surgery, delayed the former Mizzou star and first-round pick’s path to the big leagues. He didn’t dbut until he was on the cusp of his 26th birthday and didn’t pitch a full season in the Majors until he was indeed 26.

Gibson showed real promise with a strong full season of work in 2015 before turning in matching 5.07 ERAs in both 2016 and 2017. He turned the corner in 2018, when he ran up a 3.62 ERA over 196 2/3 innings. His 2019 results are disappointing by comparison. After a late lull, he finished with a 4.84 ERA in 160 frames. Those results, it should be noted, can in some ways be attributed to recent health troubles — though none involving his arm. Rather, Gibson lost roughly 25 pounds last winter due to a bout of e-coli, and he was never fully able to put the weight back on and build up to full strength. Late in the season, he missed time due to further gastrointestinal issues when he diagnosed with ulcerative colitis.

All that said, it’s worth drilling down beneath the surface-level numbers with Gibson even more so than with most free agents. The lanky 6’6″ righty struck out exactly one hitter for every inning he pitched and posted a career-high 13.1% swinging-strike rate in 2019, and he carried a characteristically strong 51.4% ground-ball rate.

Gibson has also taken a major step forward with his slider in recent seasons; what was already an above-average pitch for much of his career generated a career-best 26.7 percent swinging-strike rate over the past two years. Gibson’s changeup, too, has been an outstanding offering at times and has generated a near-60 percent grounder rate dating back to Opening Day 2018. Combined with a fastball that has averaged 93.6 mph over the past two seasons, Gibson is armed with a quality three-pitch mix — even if his four-seamer isn’ta swing-and-miss offering at all.

The big question from a performance standpoint is the long ball. Gibson has always been a bit prone to coughing up dingers when hitters manage to put the ball in the air. Last year, he allowed home runs on 20.4 percent of the balls put in the air against him and served up an average of 1.29 big flies per nine innings pitched. He’s also never had particularly strong command of the strike zone, evidenced by a career 3.2 BB/9 mark (identical to his season-long total in 2019).

At a minimum, it seems reasonable to hope that Gibson will settle in as a steady and durable back-of-the-rotation arm — just the sort of piece the Rangers so badly need. That outcome would make this investment something of an overpay, but it’s also easy to see how better health could bring about a Minor/Lynn-esque breakout for Gibson and make his contract look like a similarly savvy bargain pickup for president of baseball operations Jon Daniels and his staff.

Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported that the two sides were closing in on a deal (Twitter links). Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that a deal was in place (via Twitter). Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reported the contract terms (via Twitter).

Pirates Open To Offers For Starling Marte

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The Pirates will listen to offers on center fielder Starling Marte, although to this point there’s no traction toward any sort of a trade, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets. That Marte would be available with two years of club control remaining comes as no surprise. If anything, prior suggestions that he wouldn’t be moved this winter (which came under the previous front office regime) were more unexpected. Marte himself has since even gone on record to state that he’d be open to being dealt to a contending club.

The $24MM Marte can earn over the next two seasons — $11.5MM salary in 2020, $12.5MM option for 2021 — is an expensive sum for the perennially low-spending Pirates but an affordable rate for many others throughout the league. The Pittsburgh organization also just overhauled its front office and field staff on the heels of a disastrous 93-loss season and doesn’t seem likely to contend in 2020. Listening on Marte is to be expected, which is why he checked in near the top of MLBTR’s most recent inventory of baseball’s top trade candidates. The Pirates, Heyman notes, would like to add a high-end catching prospect by some means this winter (although they’ll have other players to market beyond Marte).

There’s every reason to think that interest in Marte will be robust in the coming weeks (or possibly months). The best center fielders in free agency are Brett Gardner, who seems likely to return to the Yankees, and a wild card option in Japanese star Shogo Akiyama. Other trade candidates could certainly crop up on the market, but few would be able to match Marte’s level of production and relatively affordable control.

Marte will play the entire 2020 season at age 31 and is fresh off a .295/.342/.503 batting line with a career-high 23 home runs. Obligatory juiced ball caveat aside, Marte also swatted 20 long balls a year prior. Skeptics surely questioned his true offensive abilities (and perhaps still do) following 2017’s 80-game PED ban, but Marte has posted a strong .285/.336/.462 batting line in 1472 plate appearances since returning from suspension that July.

He may not quite be a superstar-level performer at the plate, but Marte has demonstrated that he’s clearly a quality hitter at a premium defensive position. He was 19 to 20 percent better than a league-average hitter in 2019 by measure of park- and league-adjusted metrics like wRC+ (119) and OPS+ (120). That’s particularly impressive when considering that center fielders, as a collective group, hit five percent worse than the league average in 2019 (95 wRC+). Add in that his 58 stolen bases over the past two seasons tie him for sixth-most in the Majors, and there’s plenty to like about Marte’s all-around capabilities on offense.

Defensive stats present more of a mixed bag. Although Statcast credited Marte with a respectable two outs above average in center this year, both Defensive Runs Saved (-9) and Ultimate Zone Rating (-7.6) felt that the 2019 campaign was the worst of his career in center. For a player entering his age-31 season, that’s not ideal, but it’s worth noting that he graded out anywhere from above-average to excellent by all three of those metrics as recently as 2018. At worst, he could be viewed as a player with another year of center field left in him before transitioning to an outfield corner. Even with substandard defensive marks, Marte was worth 3.0 fWAR and 2.9 bWAR in 2019, so he’s a plenty valuable asset and well worth his remaining contractual obligation.

The trade market should see plenty of teams with potential center field needs inquire. The Phillies, Cubs, Reds, D-backs, Padres, Giants, Rangers, Braves and White Sox all seem like clubs that could inquire and gauge the asking price on Marte. The Blue Jays could represent an on-paper fit, but recent reports indicate that they’re not planning to pursue such a swap. The Mets, too, could use a center fielder — although they did just pick up Jake Marisnick, a more cost-effective option, in a swap with the Astros yesterday. If nothing else, Pirates fans should brace themselves for the inevitability that Marte’s name will be a popular one at next week’s Winter Meetings.

Cubs, Brandon Morrow Discussing Minor League Deal

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The Cubs and right-hander Brandon Morrow are discussing a minor league contract that would bring the former closer back for a third season in the Cubs organization, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score/CBS Chicago reports (Twitter link). A deal isn’t close at this point and could still take a bit to be ironed out, per Levine. Mutual interest between the Cubs and Morrow was reported last month.

“The Cubs invested a lot of time into Brandon, and money, of course, and Brandon feels a certain sense of loyalty and obligation back to the Cubs to stay with them if they want him on a minor-league contract or something like that,” agent Joel Wolfe told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times in early November. Today’s report makes it all the more clear that the Cubs do indeed have interest in such a pact.

Some Cubs fans might bristle at the idea of continuing the relationship with Morrow, 35, after injuries limited him to just 30 2/3 innings over the life of his previous two-year, $21MM contract with the team. But Morrow was objectively excellent with the Cubs when healthy in 2018, pitching to a 1.47 ERA (2.96 FIP) with a 31-to-9 K/BB ratio and would’ve been a career-best 51.9 percent ground-ball rate had he sustained it for the remainder of the season.

Morrow was also one of the game’s best relievers with the Dodgers in 2017 when he posted a 2.06 ERA and a 50-to-9 K/BB ratio in 43 2/3 frames, although Los Angeles leaned heavily on the injury-prone righty in the postseason that year, as he appeared in 14 of their 15 games. The extent to which that heavy workload impacted Morrow’s first tenure with the Cubs can’t be known, but a biceps injury cut his 2018 season in half and he’s since undergone a pair of elbow surgeries without setting foot on a big league mound.

Successfully striking gold on Morrow, as the Dodgers did in 2017, would be a boon for what looks like an uncertain Chicago relief corps at the moment. Craig Kimbrel will be back in both 2020 and 2021, and the Cubs will have to hope that a normal offseason and a full Spring Training ramp-up period can help him round back into form after an ugly half-season debut in 2019. Meanwhile, veterans Steve Cishek, Pedro Strop and Brandon Kintzler have all set out into free agency, leaving Kyle Ryan, Rowan Wick and demoted starter Tyler Chatwood among the likeliest names to be included in next year’s bullpen. The Cubs are reportedly taking a low-cost flier on righty Dan Winkler to perhaps join that group, but there’s quite a bit more work to do to turn this into anything resembling a reliable relief unit.

Nationals To Re-Sign Howie Kendrick

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9:00am: The two sides have finalized a one-year deal that promises Kendrick a $6.25MM guarantee, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (Twitter link). It’s the same guarantee that Steve Pearce received from the Red Sox on the heels of his own postseason heroics following the 2018 World Series.

8:47am: The Nationals are “closing in” on a deal to bring postseason hero Howie Kendrick back to the team, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports (via Twitter). It’ll be a one-year deal with a mutual option for the Reynolds Sports client once completed, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets, adding that Kendrick spurned guaranteed two-year offers to return to Washington.

Howie Kendrick | Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Kendrick, 36, has been nothing short of outstanding with the Nats over the past two seasons, hitting a combined .331/.375/.541 with 21 homers, 37 doubles and a triple through 530 plate appearances. With Ryan Zimmerman, Matt Adams, Brian Dozier and Asdrubal Cabrera all entering free agency, the Nats have some uncertainty at first base and second base, making a reunion with Kendrick a rather sensible pursuit.

Of course, as good as Kendrick has been during the regular season, it was his postseason heroics that truly endeared him to fans and entrenched his place in franchise lore. Kendrick’s 10th-inning grand slam against the Dodgers in the NLDS put Washington up for good and sent them toward a date with the Cardinals in the NLCS, where Kendrick was named the series MVP after hitting .333/.412/.600 in a four-game sweep. And in the World Series, it was Kendrick’s remarkable Game 7, opposite-field shot off the foul pole that put the Nationals ahead by a 3-2 margin they’d never relinquish.

Kendrick becomes the second member of the Nationals’ championship club to re-up on a new contract, joining catcher Yan Gomes, who agreed to a two-year, $10MM contract two weeks ago. The Nats still have bigger targets to address, as both Stephen Strasburg and Anthony Rendon are looming on the free-agent market, but Kendrick’s return shores up some infield needs and ensures that one of their most productive bats over the past two and a half seasons will remain in the fold.

Even with Kendrick aboard for another season, the Nationals’ 2020 payroll currently projects to about $132MM, while their luxury-tax considerations come in around $142MM (via Jason Martinez of Roster Resource). Viewed through that lens, it certainly seems as though the Nats have the payroll capacity to retain both Strasburg and Rendon, although owner Mark Lerner perhaps dubiously suggested otherwise yesterday in claiming his club could only afford to sign one of its two departing stars to a long-term deal. The Nats do have some pricey arbitration cases beginning to mount — Trea Turner is a second-time-eligible Super Two player in 2020 and Juan Soto will be eligible in 2021 — but Patrick Corbin is currently the only player the team has signed beyond the 2021 campaign.

Minor MLB Transactions: 12/6/19

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The latest minor moves from around baseball…

  • The Yakult Swallows of Nippon Professional Baseball have reached an agreement with right-hander Gabriel Ynoa, Jim Allen relays. A former Met and Oriole, Ynoa was hammered last season in his most extensive major league action to date. Across 110 2/3 innings for Baltimore in 2019, he posted a 5.61 ERA/6.20 FIP with 5.45 K/9 and 2.11 BB/9. Home runs were a major problem for the 26-year-old Ynoa, who gave up 29 on the season.
  • The Dodgers have signed left-hander Casey Crosby to a minor league contract, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. Thanks in part to injuries, the 31-year-old Crosby has only appeared in the majors in one season – back in 2012 – since the Tigers picked him in the fifth round of the 2007 draft. Crosby divided last year between the independent American Association and the Atlantic League, combining for 46 2/3 dominant innings in which he logged a 1.74 ERA with 14.5 K/9. However, the hard-throwing Crosby struggled with control, as his lofty walk rate of 6.6 per nine shows.
  • The Hanwha Eagles of the Korea Baseball Organization re-signed outfielder Jared Hoying this week, per the Yonhap News Agency. The ex-Ranger, 30, spent the previous two years as a member of the Eagles, with whom he has been far more successful than he was during his brief run in the majors from 2016-17. Hoying has put up a .296/.355/.519 line with 48 home runs in 1,115 plate appearances since he departed for Korea.

Giants Hire Donnie Ecker As Hitting Coach

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New Giants manager Gabe Kapler has made an important addition to his staff. Reds assistant hitting coach Donnie Ecker will take over as San Francisco’s hitting coach, Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune was among those to report. It’ll be a homecoming for Ecker, who Gonzales notes hails from the Bay Area.

Just 33 years old, Ecker’s a former professional infielder whom the Rangers selected in the 22nd round of the 2007 draft. Ecker didn’t get past the Single-A level with the Rangers, and he spent the final couple years of his career on the independent circuit, but he has carved a niche for himself as a coach since he last played in 2010.

Ecker’s an ex-high school and college coach who also worked for the Cardinals before the Reds hired him prior to 2018. They made Ecker their director of hitting before last season, and now he’ll try to help turn around a San Francisco offense that ranked among the majors’ worst in ’19. Ecker will replace prior hitting coach Alonzo Powell, who accepted a coaching position in Japan last month.

Along with Ecker, the Giants are adding Jim D’Aloia to the organization, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets. D’Aloia, who had been the Mets’ pro scouting director, will work in a scouting capacity with the Giants, per Puma. He was a major opponent of the Mets’ decision to include stud outfield prospect Jarred Kelenic in their trade for then-Mariners second baseman Robinson Cano and closer Edwin Diaz last winter, Puma notes. That reflects well on D’Aloia, as that trade has been disastrous for the Mets thus far.

Angels Have Met With Stephen Strasburg

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The Angels have often been connected to right-hander Gerrit Cole, the No. 1 free-agent starter available, but they’re considering the second-best starter on the market as a contingency plan. The club has held a face-to-face meeting with Stephen Strasburg, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports.

Strasburg, like Cole, is a a Southern California native, but that probably won’t matter if the Angels don’t put forth an extremely competitive offer. In Strasburg’s case, that could mean a proposal approaching $200MM. The Angels already acquired one starter earlier this week, as they landed righty Dylan Bundy in a trade with the Orioles, but there’s still plenty of work left to fix their rotation. To many, this offseason could go down as a failure for the long-suffering Angels if they don’t reel in a front-line starter such as Cole or Strasburg.

Of course, whether Strasburg will leave his only team to date – the Nationals – remains in question. He and third baseman Anthony Rendon are two enormously important free agents for the reigning World Series winners, but Nationals principal owner Mark Lerner has suggested the Nats are only capable of retaining one of the two. If that one free agent proves to be Rendon, it could lead to a Strasburg-Angels union. Strasburg’s agent, Scott Boras, hasn’t gotten along well with Angels owner Arte Moreno in the past, though it seems the two have moved past their differences. That may prove to be hugely important for the Angels, as they need a No. 1-caliber starter and the two top rotation options – Cole and Strasburg – are Boras cliients.

Dodgers Notes: Treinen, Greinke, Free Agents

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The latest from Chavez Ravine…

  • The Dodgers have interest in Blake Treinen, Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times reports (Twitter link).  Treinen was non-tendered by the Athletics earlier this week in the wake of a rough 2019 season and a projected $7.8MM arbitration salary, though Treinen figures to get a lot of attention on the open market since he’s only a year removed from an all-world performance in 2018.  The former A’s closer would be a particularly good fit for a Dodgers team that got somewhat shaky results from Kenley Jansen and Joe Kelly last year.
  • This offseason could be “the perfect storm” for the Andrew Friedman-led front office to finally splurge on a major free agent, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes (subscription required).  While L.A. has been in the mix for several big names over the years, the Dodgers’ biggest expenditures under Friedman have come in the form of re-signing its own players to free agent contracts or extensions.  With the likes of Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon, Stephen Strasburg, or even Josh Donaldson (who is comparatively much less expensive than the first three) all available in free agency, and such talents as Francisco Lindor or Kris Bryant available in trades, Rosenthal feels “the only debate for the Dodgers should be over which superstar they should acquire.”
  • Rosenthal’s piece an interesting companion to this what-if item from his Athletic colleague Andy McCullough, who looks back at everything that could have been different for the Dodgers if they had re-signed Zack Greinke in the 2015-16 offseason.  It would’ve been another case of Friedman being willing to spend on a known quantity, as he had tabled a six-year offer worth close to $160MM to the free agent righty, only to be shocked when the Diamondbacks blew away expectations by offering Greinke $206.5MM over a six-year pact.  “Had it been closer, I think it would have been a really difficult decision,” Friedman said about the opportunity to counter Arizona’s offer.  “I’m not sure how things would have played out.  But it was a pretty seismic gap.”  The fallout of Greinke re-signing with Los Angeles would’ve been immense, though given how the club was able to re-invest that planned money into some other noteworthy players, it’s not a slam dunk that having Greinke would have meant a World Series title over the last four years.

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