This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.
The Cardinals added a major star via trade but otherwise largely doubled down on their existing roster as they seek to break an uncharacteristic string of postseason-free campaigns.
Major League Signings
- Andrew Miller, RP: two years, $25MM (plus vesting/club option)
- Total spend: $25MM
Trades And Claims
- Acquired 1B Paul Goldschmidt from Diamondbacks in exchange for SP Luke Weaver, C Carson Kelly, INF Andy Young, Competitive Balance Round B draft selection
- Acquired INF/OF Drew Robinson from Rangers in exchange for 3B Patrick Wisdom
- Claimed RP Ryan Meisinger off waivers from Orioles
Extensions
- Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: five years, $130MM
- Miles Mikolas, SP: four years, $68MM
- Jose Martinez, 1B/OF: two years, $3.25MM
- Adam Wainwright, SP: one year, $2MM
Minor League Signings
- Harold Arauz, Chris Beck, Hunter Cervenka, Mike Hauschild, Joe Hudson, Tommy Layne, Francisco Pena, Williams Perez, Matt Wieters
Notable Losses
[St. Louis Cardinals Depth Chart | St. Louis Cardinals Payroll Information]
Needs Addressed
The Cardinals have rolled off eleven-straight winning seasons, which is really quite an accomplishment. But the last three of those campaigns have ended without a posteason berth and the club last won the World Series in 2011. It’s hardly an epic drought, but this is an organization that holds itself to a high standard.
The problem, arguably, was that the club has of late lacked truly premium players on an otherwise deep and talented roster. In 2018, no St. Louis player reached five wins above replacement, as measured by Baseball-Reference. The organization seemed like a prime contender to chase after superstar free agents Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.
Instead of dangling $300MM+ contracts to those younger players, the Cards coughed up some of their solid young MLB assets in a swap that brought in outstanding first baseman Paul Goldschmidt from the Diamondbacks. Luke Weaver has at times looked like a quality, mid-rotation hurler; Carson Kelly at one point seemed the long-term replacement for Yadier Molina. Both will now seek to stake out a career in Arizona while their new team mourns the departure of an all-time franchise great.
That acquisition only brought the Cardinals one year of control over Goldschmidt, who was slated to test the open market next winter. But he and the team cozied up quickly and worked out a contract that meets the needs for each. Defensively limited sluggers just don’t earn like they used to. Goldschmidt turns 32 this September, so he’s hardly youthful. And he’ll take home a bigger deal (albeit without the opt-outs) than that secured last winter by top slugger J.D. Martinez (five years, $110MM). It’s sensible for him to take the money now and understandable that the club was willing to pay something close to open-market value to ensure they keep their new lineup centerpiece.
The other major deal struck by the Cards this winter went to an existing player. Having struck gold with their signing last year of starter Miles Mikolas, the team doubled down with a lengthier contract. It’s a manageable risk at $17MM annually over four years, but also represents a good bit of faith in a pitcher who had not even cracked one hundred MLB innings before his triumphant return stateside last year.
St. Louis president of baseball operations John Mozeliak obviously felt quite good about the organization’s pitching depth on the whole. But he did make one new acquisition to boost the pen, placing a sensible bet on veteran lefty Andrew Miller. The multi-inning relief ace was limited by a balky knee last year and just wasn’t as sharp as usual. If he can recover some of his lost velocity and get batters to start chasing out of the zone again, Miller could be a bargain. Even if not, he still ought to be an effective relief arm so long as he’s able to stay on the field.
Otherwise, the Cardinals picked around the edges of the roster. They decided to give another year to veteran Adam Wainwright to buttress the rotation — which ultimately made it easier, at least in the short term, to part with Weaver. Veteran receiver Matt Wieters was added late in camp; he beat out Francisco Pena for the right to spell Molina here and there. Drew Robinson was snagged as a utility option, while the team also made low-risk depth moves for hurlers including Ryan Meisinger, Mike Hauschild, Chris Beck, and Tommy Layne.
Questions Remaining
There aren’t many holes on this roster. As we touched on at the outset, though, that isn’t really the question. It’s this: did Mozeliak and co. do enough?
The Cardinals play in the most competitive division in baseball, from top to bottom. While most would tab the Reds and Pirates as underdogs, both project as approximately average teams. The Brewers and Cubs have their warts, but those teams won 96 and 95 games apiece last year, respectively. There’s ample wild card competition in the rest of the National League as well.
While adding Goldschmidt is precisely the kind of move the Cards could and should have made to put more wins into their lineup, it’s arguable they should have done more. A spirited pursuit of Harper or Machado may still have made sense. Had they gone big with another acquisition, the Cards could have used any displaced players as trade chips to boost the pitching. Or, the team could have gone straightaway after high-end arms in free agency or trade. A significant rotation upgrade, high-end closer, or multiple top late-inning relievers could all have made sense. Heck, perhaps they still ought to be in on Craig Kimbrel.
Going with the existing options was certainly defensible in many respects, but the Cardinals will need some things to go their way to take the NL Central. The organization continues to pump out young arms, but they’ll be put to the test to a greater extent than had been hoped due to ongoing injury issues for Carlos Martinez. When he’ll be back isn’t known. Neither can we guess at this point what the team will get from the aging Wainwright, oft-injured Michael Wacha, or still-raw Dakota Hudson — a groundball monster who won the final rotation spot in Martinez’s place. Alex Reyes is a fascinating talent but will be handled carefully after a brutal string of injuries. He’ll be in the pen to open the year. Mikolas and Jack Flaherty were excellent last year but are (in quite different ways) still thin on MLB experience.
The pen has some fire — Jordan Hicks, in particular — but would look that much better with a veteran closer sitting atop the depth chart. Otherwise, there wasn’t much need to spend on depth. The club opened with John Brebbia, Dominic Leone, and Mike Mayers supplementing the above-noted players as middle relievers and John Gant on hand as a swingman. There are some veteran pieces available if any of those arms falter; in addition to the minor-league signees, the club held onto Chasen Shreve after bumping him from the MLB roster and could still hope for contributions from rehabbing, high-priced veterans Brett Cecil and Luke Gregerson.
It’s hard to quibble with any of the position players on the roster to open the season; all seem like quality big leaguers. But it’s hard also not to wish that there was one more star-level performer in the mix, with the other players all bumped down a peg on the depth chart. There’s a plethora of ~2 WAR projected players on the roster. If deployed with precision, perhaps the exceedingly deep mix of individuals will play up as a unit. But truly optimal usage is difficult to pull off.
The potential lineup issues are most obvious in the outfield, where the Cardinals feature two bounceback candidates (Marcell Ozuna and Dexter Fowler) who realistically weren’t going anywhere after tough 2018 seasons. Harrison Bader impressed as a rookie, but projection systems expect his bat to take a step back with the bat; it’s the opposite situation for Jose Martinez, a highly talented hitter who probably ought to be on an American League roster. Tyler O’Neill has a chance to be the most productive member of the bunch, but he’ll have to pare back the worrying volume of strikeouts he ran up last year and prove he can overcome the adjustments of MLB pitchers. The Cardinals have already spun off a number of other outfielders in recent seasons — Tommy Pham, Randal Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty, Magneuris Sierra — and yet still seem to have a mix that’s deep but potentially lacking in top-end pieces.
It’s not altogether dissimilar in the infield, though it’s easier there to see why the Cards held pat. Matt Carpenter was the team’s best player last year and is an easy choice to pay nearly everyday. They already locked into Paul DeJong with an extension. There’s a sensible platoon match at second between Kolten Wong and Jedd Gyorko, with the latter joined by Yairo Munoz as utility pieces who can also spell DeJong and help keep the older corner players fresh.
2019 Season Outlook
This club has every hope of returning to the postseason. But it would hardly be surprising to see another disappointing conclusion to the year. It seems fair to say the front office could have pushed harder to boost the near-term outlook, though that would have meant giving up future value in a trade and/or further expanding an Opening Day payroll that is already topping $160MM for the first time in club history.
How do you think the Cards handled things this winter? (Link for app users.)
Not to nit pick, but Sandy Alcantara is not an outfielder…
I’d say that’s worth pointing out! I somehow flipped him in my mind with Magneuris Sierra … fixing now.
It’s so weird how STL is a small market team, yet they have no problem dishing out $100M deals, all while taking advantage of MLB’s small market team benefits. Meanwhile Oakland gave Eric Chavez $66M in 2005 and has never come close to breaking that, because they claim they are a small market team, and recently lost some of their small market benefits.
It’s almost like the system is totally broken or just decided with no logic behind it at all.
I liked STL’s offseason, they seem to always run their team really well without crying poor ever. If they got Kimbrel they’d be really nasty though…
There’s a difference between being mid-market like St Louis and having to give away free tickets to get people to show up like Oakland.
^^he’s right on that.
St Louis isn’t mid-market though, they are in a literal small market media area. The team acts like a mid-to-upper tier market though, and always put a great team on the field, money be damned. Oakland has no excuse not to be acting exactly like STL, they’d definitely have titles in the Beane era if they did.
They act like that, because unlike Oakland they have the money for it. While they have a relatively small media market, they’re always among the top teams in ticket and merch sales. Together, that puts their overall revenue in the upper middle class.
However, since they do pull in such revenue despite their market size, I agree that it doesn’t make sense for them to be eligible for competitive balance draft picks. Of course, they’re not going to turn down what MLB is willing to give them.
why should they turn them down? they are small market by definition. why should they be punished for being successful and generating revenue when their market size dictates they deserve the compensation picks just as much as Oakland and the like? the system is designed to help create competitive balance. they are a small market team that is a competitor every year. doesn’t that mean the system in place is working? maybe instead of complaining that the cardinals are getting compensation picks and winning, we should be complaining about the teams that get the same compensation and can’t figure out how to get out of the basement. I get so sick of the mentality that if someone’s consistently successful, it must be because they have an advantage that the loser doesn’t have. it’s absurd. sometimes losers are losers based on their own actions, not because someone else is winning.
That’s because the Cardinals has an outstanding revenue stream and they draw over 3 million fans a year. Plus they have a billion dollar tv contract.
It’s because we have fans… Oakland and Tampa have to close off 60% of the seats to promote a “more intimate fan experience”
To be fair, Oakland Coliseum holds 63K+, and Busch holds 45.5K. It’s really a football stadium, if that.
Also before you go spouting off some stereotype look at the FACTS. The Cardinals have for years invested in their farm system, drafted and replenished the team with young talent and spun off for talent. They maybe able to give 100 million contracts but what team can’t now with TV contract money. Also the Cardinals are in a small market only a PRO Baseball and Hockey Franchise (The hockey team is the equivalent of the cubs) and the NFL has spurned us twice even though we have a devout fan base that loves sports as there’s really nothing else going on in the city. The owners could put some $ more into the team but it’s also been proven with signings like Holland, Cecil, and Leake that our farm system can produce something way better without the name being known yet. Also realize we have the BEST catcher in the league. Should have seen that Cain throw out tonight. 36 and still going. Goldy with 3 HR’s but this team has depth and is catching on quickly.
The Blues are more like the Nationals. They can get to the playoffs easily most years, but they can’t do much once they get there and have never won a championship.
No one wants to go see a rotation full of 5th starters. Beane and co could spend big and bring fans to see them. Most fairweather fans flock to that, and the A’s never have that, and its always about building up a superstar and letting them go, never bringing one in other than like Holiday, which was 10 freaking years ago. Beane needs to try it more, he seems to always let the deals that don’t pan out decide how he will act in the future 100% of the time, when its never been an exact formula, finding out who will still produce at a high level post-contract. The A’s had the 4th wealthiest owners in MLB all throughout the Moneyball birth – its always been about cheapskate owners and Beane being gunshy.
They have no problem? You mean the 2 times in history they have done that?
I gave a F grade…because luke weaver will pitch better than mikolas this year
Wrong Juicemane
Even if that were true it wouldn’t justify an ‘F’.
Since over 80% voted a grade of ‘A’ or ‘B’ I ascribe the ‘D’ and ‘F votes to unreasonable hate of the Cardinals, and bitter Cub’s fans. Not a Card’s fan BTW.
Juicemane I give you an Failing grade as a critic. Don’t quit the dayjob also we all know you root for another central team. How sad is it you go post trash talk on a message board? Guess you can’t enjoy your team’s success?
Im a padres fan.
Hey Jeff. I gave you some crap a few weeks back about certain aspects of your writing style that bothered me. It would have been totally understandable if you had just dismissed or ignored me, but instead you responded politely. And maybe I’m imagining things, but it feels like maybe you took my comments a little bit to heart, because I’ve noticed what I consider improvements in your writing lately.
If I’m wrong, you can ignore this. But I just wanted to say I admire you for being the kind of person who can take criticism thoughtfully, something that it seems very, very few people are capable of. I know I’m pretty bad at it myself. So thanks.
That’s it, I’m not going to dwell on this or anything. Have a great day.
Thanks. I have always seen the top priorities in this job as substantive precision and tone, and I still do. The nature of the process — we write, edit, publish, scan for news, etc all in real time — is not optimal for crafting elegant prose. But that’s also an excuse that I don’t want to lean on. There’s no sense doing an aspect of a job poorly if you are capable of better.
Big fat F from me. Goldschmidt is totally gonna regress when not playing 81 games at elevation like in AZ. Plus aging.
STL obviously can’t attract FAs, they have to trade for someone every year (Heyward; Osuna; Goldie). The supposed BFIBs cry small market…when they take taxpayer money for their stadium and are a moving Budweiser ad.
This article also points out Mozeliak/GM crapping the bed w/ FAs (Holland; Cecil; Fowler; Gregerson).
IHMO…they got older, more expensive, Bryce/Manny had zero interest, and their pitching still iffy. Kimbrel or Keuchel bumps the garde up to a D+
When you realize Goldie’s splits are comically identical.
Oh…it’s a Cubs fan
Yeah any critique that is that dense has to be a Cubs fan.
Goldy hit 3 homers tonight. I want the Cardinals to crap out, but not going to happen, they are going to be very good.
Looks like Goldschmidt “regressed” alright. Four hits, 3 HRs, 4 RBI tonight against Milwaukee.
Since when is St. Louis at a high elevation? They may play in a slight pitcher’s park, but it not that big compared to some of the others.
Oh, sorry, I read that wrong. Anyway, Arizona’s elevation advantage was already neutralized last year with the humidor, when Goldschmidt still put up MVP caliber numbers, and as I said, Busch Stadium III isn’t that much of a pitcher’s park.
Wrong! The Cardinals paid for the stadium themselves. No taxpayers money involved.
Goldy rakes in the NL Central. It’ll be fun watching him kill it in the Division.
Why do we keep referring to Goldschmidt as a “defensively limited slugger?” He’s literally never had a full season of 0 or less in DRS. I’d argue that he’s a consistently good fielder, especially considering the realm of “talent” at first base.
Exactly
I was referring to his positional limitations, not his ability to field at first base.
Then you need a better description for it.
Wouldn’t you describe someone who is only capable of playing one position — a position which is most commonly thought of as the least demanding defensively — as defensively limited even if he plays it well? I would. He’s also a slugger. If you put those together, it does seem to say “defensively limited slugger” to me.
Great article. I love reading these outlooks.
You’re really underestimating Marcell Ozuna. If he can hit .280 with 23 home runs with a bum shoulder, imagine what he could do now that he’s healthy…or just look at his 2017 stat line. While he may not match those numbers, he should at least come a lot closer to them than last year’s marks.
Keep in mind his shoulder still sucks. A good example of this is a throw he made last night that hopped two or three times before it made the infield.
As for Machado/Harper, the Cards wouldn’t have had the payroll room for one of them unless they traded a pricey contract first. To make room for Machado, it would have to be Carpenter, one of their best hitters who’s nearly a match for Machado offensively although certainly a downgrade compared to Machado with his below average defense and baserunning, However, that isn’t worth the 8-digit difference in both their 2019 and 2020 salaries (assuming Carpenter’s option is picked up). For Harper, they’d have to trade Fowler, and as you said nobody’s taking on his contract after the horrible season he had last year.
Now I agree they could use someone like Kimbrel, but Girsch and Mozeliak are adamant about not potentially repeating the same mistake they made with Holland last year.
The Cardinals are going to be just fine. That young pitching is going to be phenomenal. Even the experts don’t realize how good they are. And that offense is going to be relentless. The year of the Bird. You heard it here first.