Headlines

  • Astros Have Reportedly Considered Carlos Correa Trade
  • Giants Sign Kevin Gausman
  • Phillies To Sign Didi Gregorius
  • Giants Acquire Zack Cozart
  • Rangers To Sign Joely Rodriguez
  • Nationals Agree To Re-Sign Stephen Strasburg
  • Previous
  • Next
Register
Login
  • Hoops Rumors
  • Pro Football Rumors
  • Pro Hockey Rumors

MLB Trade Rumors

  • Home
  • Teams
    • AL East
      • Baltimore Orioles
      • Boston Red Sox
      • New York Yankees
      • Tampa Bay Rays
      • Toronto Blue Jays
    • AL Central
      • Chicago White Sox
      • Cleveland Indians
      • Detroit Tigers
      • Kansas City Royals
      • Minnesota Twins
    • AL West
      • Houston Astros
      • Los Angeles Angels
      • Oakland Athletics
      • Seattle Mariners
      • Texas Rangers
    • NL East
      • Atlanta Braves
      • Miami Marlins
      • New York Mets
      • Philadelphia Phillies
      • Washington Nationals
    • NL Central
      • Chicago Cubs
      • Cincinnati Reds
      • Milwaukee Brewers
      • Pittsburgh Pirates
      • St. Louis Cardinals
    • NL West
      • Arizona Diamondbacks
      • Colorado Rockies
      • Los Angeles Dodgers
      • San Diego Padres
      • San Francisco Giants
  • About
    • MLB Trade Rumors
    • Tim Dierkes
    • Writing team
    • Advertise
    • Archives
  • Contact
  • Tools
    • 2019-20 Top 50 MLB Free Agents With Predictions
    • 2019-20 MLB Free Agent Tracker
    • 2019-20 MLB Free Agent List
    • 2020-21 MLB Free Agent List
    • Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2020
    • Arbitration Tracker
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Extension Tracker
    • Agency Database
    • Last 100 Comments
  • NBA/NFL/NHL
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors
  • App
  • Chats
Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Trade Candidate: Trey Mancini

By Mark Polishuk | May 30, 2019 at 6:24pm CDT

As the Orioles begin what will be a lengthy rebuilding process, it’s fair to assume they’re open to offers on virtually any player on their roster with a modicum of Major League experience.  This extends even to players like Trey Mancini, who under some circumstances would seem like a potential building block.

Mancini burst onto the scene with an impressive 2017 campaign before seeing his production drop to sub-replacement levels (-0.2 fWAR) in 2018.  Aside from minor improvements to his swinging strike rate and walk rate, Mancini’s numbers dropped pretty much across the board in every major batting category from 2017 to 2018.  This could be attributed to an old-fashioned sophomore slump as pitchers got a book on a young hitter, or perhaps Mancini suffered from the added mental stress of being caught up in the Orioles’ disastrous 115-loss season.

Perhaps the most telling number, however, was Mancini’s .285 BABIP in 2018.  It marked a big decline from his .352 BABIP in 2017, which had a particularly deleterious effect on a player who had such extreme trouble keeping the ball off the ground.  Mancini’s 52.9% ground-ball rate over the 2017-18 seasons was the sixth-highest total of any qualified player in that stretch, so when Mancini’s grounders weren’t sneaking through the infield with as much regularity, it had a significant impact on his production.  This issue wasn’t a new one for Mancini, who also had high grounder rates throughout his minor league career.

Trey Mancini

Almost two months into the 2019 season, however, Mancini has done a much better job of driving the ball through the air.  His grounder rate this season stands at only 38.3%, plus a .342 BABIP indicates that Mancini’s lesser number of ground balls are sneaking through the infield.  Beyond just getting more good luck from the BABIP gods, Mancini’s 25.3% line drive rate, 36.4% fly ball rate, and 37.7% hard-hit ball rates are all career bests, and his .365 xwOBA is a virtual match for his .369 wOBA.

These underlying factors are a big reason why the 2019 version of Mancini is looking like a more sustainably productive player than the the 2017 model.  The 27-year-old is hitting .295/.345/.529 with 10 home runs, a 128 wRC+ and 132 OPS + through 229 plate appearances.  With this production looking up, Baltimore could decide now is the time to sell high on what could be its best position-player trade chip.

It’s worth noting, of course, that the Orioles are under no pressure to trade Mancini by July 31 — he isn’t eligible for arbitration until this coming offseason, meaning that he is under team control through the 2022 season.  It also isn’t totally out of the question that the O’s hang onto Mancini altogether, though the club’s timeline for a return to contention doesn’t really fit Mancini’s age and skillset.

Over his two-plus seasons in the big leagues, Mancini has played 793 innings as a first baseman and 1808 2/3 innings as a corner outfielder, despite being drafted as a first baseman out of Notre Dame in 2013 and never seeing any outfield action over his four minor league seasons.  With Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo holding down the first base/DH spots, the Orioles deployed Mancini in the outfield as a way of getting his bat into the lineup, with predictably subpar defensive results.

Mancini has a -12.9 UZR/150 and minus-20 Defensive Runs Saved as an outfielder, making him an ill fit at the position now, let alone in the future.  He has been seeing more time at first base recently with Davis on the IL, and there’s really no reason for Baltimore to not continue playing Mancini at his original position going forward; he wouldn’t be the first player to take his hitting to another level after being relieved from a troublesome defensive situation.

While Orioles GM Mike Elias surely hopes he can have the club on track in shorter order, the fact remains that the O’s might still not be full-fledged contenders by the 2023 season, given the extensive nature of the team’s rebuild.  At that point, Mancini will be in his age-31 season and in all likelihood a full-time first baseman/DH, making it a better bet that he will be starting into a decline phase just as the Orioles as a whole plan to be rising up.

Waiting for the winter to explore Mancini trades would theoretically expand Baltimore’s market for the young slugger, since dealing him now would limit the O’s to only contending teams….or would it?  Mancini’s extra years of control make him an interesting option for teams who might be riding the fence between being a pure buyer or a pure seller.  Mancini could fit on a team like the White Sox, who aren’t contenders this season but surely have an eye towards taking a step forward in 2020 (especially now that Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, and Lucas Giolito are all breaking out).

Holding off on a Mancini deal also carries risk beyond just the normal concerns of a potential dropoff.  As we’ve seen over the last two offseasons, teams are putting less and less value on defensively-limited players and first base/DH types, no matter how big a bat they might be swinging.  Nicholas Castellanos (a free agent this winter) has far less team control than Mancini, but is almost exactly the same age and a much more established MLB hitter, yet the Tigers have had no luck shopping Castellanos for over a year.

Plus, once the offseason hits and the free agent market opens, teams with a first base or corner outfield vacancy might prefer to just sign a productive veteran at a relatively low price rather than give up prospects to Baltimore for Mancini.  This could open the door to a more immediate trade, as the urgency of a pennant race might encourage teams to give up some solid minor league talent for a quality bat like Mancini, with his years of control as a significant bonus.

Looking at teams who could fit as trade partners for Mancini, I considered both contenders and non-contenders (who were planning to be competitive sooner rather than later) with both outfield/first base needs for 2019 and longer-term needs at first base going forward.  More teams could certainly emerge as injuries, slumps, and other factors impact this summer’s deadline business, though a few clubs stand out as possible candidates at the moment.

Astros: Mancini would help them now, though Houston isn’t exactly hurting for bats, and the Astros have several interesting young names (Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker) waiting in the wings.

Red Sox: Mitch Moreland and Steve Pearce are pending free agents, and J.D. Martinez could join them if he chooses to opt out of the final three years and $62.5MM on his contract.  Boston’s first base spot has been seen as a potential eventual landing spot for either Rafael Devers or Michael Chavis, though those two emerging stars may end up at third base and second base, and prospect Bobby Dalbec may be at least a year away.  A case can be made for the Red Sox to pursue Mancini at the deadline, though with JDM, Moreland, and Pearce all still in the fold, Boston is more likely to wait until the offseason to address its first base/DH situation.

Nationals: On paper, Washington fits since Ryan Zimmerman’s $18MM club option isn’t likely to be picked up for 2020.  In practice, all the bad blood between the Nationals and Orioles stemming from the ongoing legal dispute over broadcast rights makes any sort of trade between the two Beltway rivals next to impossible.

White Sox: As mentioned earlier, Mancini could fit nicely into an emerging White Sox lineup.  Yonder Alonso is unlikely to have his club option exercised, and Jose Abreu is slated for free agency at the moment (though the Sox certainly want to keep Abreu on the south side).  If Abreu does stay, he and Mancini would provide a lot of pop from the first base/DH positions.

Mariners: Something of a similar case to the White Sox, as Seattle also aren’t contenders now, but their quest to “re-imagine” their roster wasn’t seen as a long-term endeavor.  Edwin Encarnacion could himself be traded by the deadline, and if he does stay, the M’s are more likely to buy out his 2020 option for $5MM than exercise it for $20MM.  The surprising Daniel Vogelbach has definitely slugged his way into Seattle’s 2020 plans, so he could join Mancini splitting time between first base and designated hitter.  Jay Bruce is also likely to still be in the mix barring a trade, though Bruce’s presence wouldn’t stop GM Jerry Dipoto from picking up a player like Mancini.

Rangers: Between Shin-Soo Choo, Hunter Pence, and even top prospect Willie Calhoun, Texas already has multiple players who might be best suited for DH duty, and Ronald Guzman is still young and controllable at first base.  Texas also doesn’t have a deep farm system, and might not be willing to meet Baltimore’s asking price for Mancini, or maybe even any team’s price tag on any notable midseason upgrade since the Rangers weren’t fully committing to contending this year.  Nevertheless, the surprising Rangers are maybe an interesting outside-the-box candidate for Mancini since the team has stayed in the wild card race.  Acquiring Mancini is both a go-for-it type of move, while also serving as a long-term piece.  Mancini would also give Texas some much-needed right-handed lineup balance.

Brewers: Only two teams have received less bWAR from the first base position this season than Milwaukee, Jesus Aguilar’s breakout 2018 season has given way to some major struggles this year, while Eric Thames’ hot start has given way to an ice-cold May.  It would be a bold move to see the Brewers move on entirely from Aguilar less than a year after his big season, though the club doesn’t have much margin for error in a tight NL Central race.  Like Texas, the Brew Crew also doesn’t have a lot of minor league talent to spare in trades.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Share 0 Retweet 6 Send via email0

Baltimore Orioles MLBTR Originals Trade Candidate Trey Mancini

Mariners Release Christian Bergman
Main
The Importance Of Scott Kingery
20 comments
newest oldest

Comments

  1. bravesfan

    6 months ago

    Brewers…

    Like
    Reply
  2. johnsilver

    6 months ago

    Boston has a glut of middle infield people to play 2b (Chavis/Lin/ Marco hernandez) and Chavis can then move to 1st once the organization finally goes in that direction. neither Moreland/Pierce will be around next season and mancini is an average player at best who some team will overpay for.

    I’d prefer Boston going with a finally healthy hernandez at 2b, then Chavis at 1st than giving up anything for mancini.

    Like
    Reply
  3. Vinny1228

    6 months ago

    Why aren’t the rays a team considered for Mancini ? They could use a first baseman and a middle of the order bat.

    Like
    Reply
    • Matt Galvin

      6 months ago

      Rays have both Lowe’s,Wendle,Diaz and so on Roster.

      Like
      Reply
      • Clayton_Chokeshaw

        6 months ago

        Don’t forget about the GOAT Ji-Man Choi

        Like
        Reply
  4. Christopher_Oriole

    6 months ago

    But if the orioles trade him, who would you go to a game to watch?

    Like
    Reply
    • MT in Baltimore

      6 months ago

      Not too many people are attending games at the Yard presently..

      Like
      Reply
      • Ironman_4life

        6 months ago

        Those are not true fans.

        1 Like
        Reply
    • doug.daniel243

      6 months ago

      Was Mancini filling the seats by himself or something? He’s not a franchise player and he’s not on a big market team. Doesn’t seem like it’ll make much of a difference in attendance.

      Like
      Reply
  5. MT in Baltimore

    6 months ago

    A very interesting article here..

    Elias will certainly entertain/explore trades for Mancini this Summer–the Orioles won’t just give him away..

    He is a very good player and an even better teammate. Would be good for him to go to a team where he can contribute to a winner.

    1 Like
    Reply
  6. Clayton_Chokeshaw

    6 months ago

    Trade him while his value is so high. They could’ve got so much more if they hadn’t waited to trade Machado, Britton, and Schoop

    1 Like
    Reply
  7. Clayton_Chokeshaw

    6 months ago

    If Cleveland wants to stay in it this year, they need to hop onto the Mancini boat. They could also flip him for better prospects

    Like
    Reply
  8. jorge78

    6 months ago

    These articles are a nice change of pace but they’re a little long…..

    Like
    Reply
  9. snowbladerp14

    6 months ago

    Should have mentioned the injury he suffered last year. After sliding into the wall he never really got back on track. Started last year strong before the injury.

    Like
    Reply
  10. lopodan

    6 months ago

    Very limited market for 1b and dh types -only AL,, for one problem. Orioles were unable to get any good offers for Machadoi or Schoop although they were both available for the previous year well as the year they were finally traded..
    Even the Os have a glut at 1b.. In addition to Mancini, there are Davis, Trumbo, top prospect at AAA Mountcastle and leading team leading HR hitter Renato Nunez.. I suspect most AL teams are backed up at 1B. No reason to pay a big price in prospects for TM although he is a good team guy…

    Like
    Reply
  11. mgrap84

    6 months ago

    Why not just build around him. Not like he is that old. Get rid of Davis even if you just have to suck it up and take whatever loss comes with it like we did with Albert Belle

    Like
    Reply
    • niched

      6 months ago

      By the time the Orioles are any good again there’s a good chance Mancini will only have league average numbers and he’ll be expensive. No reason to hang on to him IF the return is decent, but only if it is decent — like for young pitching with some upside. But no reason to give Mancini away if the return does not have something enticing

      Like
      Reply
  12. hope4orioles

    6 months ago

    Mancini is a solid player, but we’d hate to see him go. He and Means are the only bright spots we have right now. Not really sure how much we could actually get for either of them. But I’d like to see an additional starter like Means who can actually keep them in the game.

    Like
    Reply
  13. fomeols

    6 months ago

    Mancini has value but he’s no different from a multitude of guys who do the same thing. Why trade for him when you can just sign Danny Valencia of Pedro Alverez for next to nothing.
    Best thing is to keep him. He won’t bring back what he offers so even though he won’t contribute to the next winning team, he can keep us from being more awful.

    Like
    Reply
    • niched

      6 months ago

      Mancini can play everyday and he’s capable in the field. He’s not just a platoon player who’s lousy at defense

      Like
      Reply

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Please login to leave a reply.
Log in Register

ad: 300x250_1_MLB

    Top Stories

    Astros Have Reportedly Considered Carlos Correa Trade

    Giants Sign Kevin Gausman

    Phillies To Sign Didi Gregorius

    Giants Acquire Zack Cozart

    Rangers To Sign Joely Rodriguez

    Nationals Agree To Re-Sign Stephen Strasburg

    Adam Jones Weighing Move To Japan

    Phillies Sign Zack Wheeler

    Steve Pearce “Unofficially Retired”

    Ted Simmons, Marvin Miller Elected To Baseball Hall Of Fame

    Yankees Reportedly Preparing $245MM Offer To Gerrit Cole

    Rangers To Sign Jordan Lyles

    Rays, Padres Announce Tommy Pham-Hunter Renfroe Trade

    Mets Re-Sign Brad Brach

    Rangers Sign Kyle Gibson

    Recent

    Astros Have Reportedly Considered Carlos Correa Trade

    Gerrit Cole Rumors: 12/10/19

    FA Rumors: Ozuna, Braves, J. Castro, Stammen, Peraza, Grandy

    David Price Drawing Trade Interest

    Rangers Exploring Outfield Trades, Pursuing Chirinos Reunion

    Angels Have Shown Interest In Josh Donaldson

    Padres Rumors: Merrifield, Hedges, Mejia

    Giants Sign Kevin Gausman

    Phillies To Sign Didi Gregorius

    Giants Acquire Zack Cozart

    Trade Rumors App for iOS and Android

    MLBTR Features

    MLBTR Features

    • 2019-20 MLB Free Agent Tracker
    • 2019-20 MLB Free Agent List
    • 2020 Arbitration Tracker
    • Free Agent Contest Leaderboard
    • Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2020
    • 2020-21 MLB Free Agent List
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Extension Tracker
    • Agency Database
    • MLBTR On Twitter
    • MLBTR On Facebook
    • Team Facebook Pages
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors

    Rumors By Team

    • Angels Rumors
    • Astros Rumors
    • Athletics Rumors
    • Blue Jays Rumors
    • Braves Rumors
    • Brewers Rumors
    • Cardinals Rumors
    • Cubs Rumors
    • Diamondbacks Rumors
    • Dodgers Rumors
    • Giants Rumors
    • Indians Rumors
    • Mariners Rumors
    • Marlins Rumors
    • Mets Rumors
    • Nationals Rumors
    • Orioles Rumors
    • Padres Rumors
    • Phillies Rumors
    • Pirates Rumors
    • Rangers Rumors
    • Rays Rumors
    • Red Sox Rumors
    • Reds Rumors
    • Rockies Rumors
    • Royals Rumors
    • Tigers Rumors
    • Twins Rumors
    • White Sox Rumors
    • Yankees Rumors

    ad: 160x600_MLB

    Navigation

    • Sitemap
    • Archives
    • Feeds by Team

    MLBTR INFO

    • Advertise
    • About
    • Commenting Policy
    • Privacy Policy

    Connect

    • Contact Us
    • Twitter
    • Facebook
    • RSS Feed

    MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

    hide arrowsFOX Sports Engage Network scroll to top
    Close

    Desktop Version | Switch To Mobile Version