Just 146 games into his major league career, Padres right fielder Franmil Reyes has established himself as one of baseball’s most intimidating power threats. The 6-foot-5, 273-pound Reyes smashed 16 home runs during his 285-plate appearance debut a year ago and has totaled the league’s fourth-most HRs (19) this season. The 23-year-old’s on pace for 50 homers in his first full season in the majors, but that alone isn’t the hardest-to-believe fact about his campaign to date.
With a .247/.294/.577 slash line through 211 plate appearances this season, the 23-year-old Reyes has chipped in a strong 122 wRC+ for the playoff-contending Padres. The lone massively underwhelming figure in Reyes’ line is his on-base percentage, which ties for 17th worst among 166 qualified MLB batters. It also helps set the stage for what could go down as a historic season for Reyes.
Based on research at FanGraphs going all the way back to 1871, no hitter has ever accumulated at least 40 home runs and reached base under 30 percent of the time in a season. Former Red Sox outfielder Tony Armas came the closest during a 1984 campaign in which he swatted 43 HRs and recorded an even .300 OBP in 679 PA. Thirty-five years later, Reyes may put forth a similarly powerful season with even less on-base ability.
Just over two months into the season, Reyes has recorded the game’s 26th-highest strikeout rate (27 percent). That’s not awful for someone with Reyes’ high-power skill set; on the other hand, his 6.6 walk percentage leaves plenty to be desired – especially for someone who’s not blessed with much speed. The fact that Reyes isn’t, say, Rhys Hoskins when it comes to drawing bases on balls has helped stop him from becoming a far bigger force at the plate. That aside, the right-handed Reyes has offered above-average production against righty and lefty pitchers alike, and he has registered solid numbers in his home park and elsewhere.
Reyes, who unsurprisingly elevates the ball more than most hitters, ranks 16th in the game in exit velocity on fly balls and line drives (97.9 mph), per Statcast, which credits him with an even higher expected weighted on-base average (.390) than actual wOBA (.365). It also awards Reyes a respectable .283 expected batting average which, along with a paltry .244 BABIP, indicates he hasn’t encountered good batted-ball fortune in 2019. If that turns around at all, it’ll push Reyes’ OBP over the .300 barrier by season’s end and prevent him from making somewhat dubious history.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
imagine if he starts drawing walks.. future MVP contender
Sadly that never seems to happen
indians should have gotten him for bauer or kluber
I bet they still can
Oh sure, get a guy who hits homers occasionally but can’t hit otherwise, or even get on base. Have to guess his defense isn’t splendid, either.
shhhhhhh, we don’t need to hear all that
He is a worse version of edwin encarnacion whome they just traded to get rid of the money. Easy pass
I like these kind of simple articles. It helps me feel closer to the game; especially since I only follow the Mariners (yuck) closely.
I feel for you says a Rangers fan!
Chris Carter could not even get signed after a similar year in 2016. Now, everyone is raving over this type of production, of which, I think they should.
That’s a good point
Carter couldnt single to save his life Reyes at the very least has bat .250 this year.
.250 average, yet carter still got on base more. Carter has career .217 average with .312 OBP. So, that BATTING avg you speak of mean little.
Chris Carter also struck out 5% more often and was a below average first baseman when his manager would even write him in the the lineup to actually play in the field.
Pssst your link for Tony Armas is for the wrong player
Right….that’s his son who was a pitcher. Same family so half right.
When pitchers find his weakness he will stop hitting hrvand will be done. He only does one thing well . He is not a good outfielder , he is really slow , strikes out , and does get on base . Will never make it to free agency.
To be honest I bet he gets an early career extension. Those arbitration years will be expensive with all those dingers.
That’s good analysis Larry. If only a major league GM, manager, scouting department, player development system, and advanced stats program had your insight, they could have moved on by now. Maybe they will give you a call.
Once you get started with weird Franmil stats, it’s hard to stop:
— 27 of his 35 career HRs have been solo shots.
— He’s hit .287/.955 with bases empty, and .231/.679 with anyone on. That OPS differential of -.276 with men on is the 2nd-worst known figure of anyone with 450+ PAs.
— His career RBI/HR ratio of 1.77 (62/35) is the lowest BY FAR of anyone with 30+ HRs. Gallo is next-lowest at 2.17.
— Ditto his career Runs/HR ratio of 1.83. Next-worst is his teammate, Hunter Renfroe, at 1.88.
— HRs comprise 68.6% of his career extra-base hits. Only McGwire had a higher ratio.
— His current season pace is 49 HRs, 73 runs and 81 RBI (through 62 team games). No year of 45+ HRs ever had fewer than 85 runs or 90 RBI.
As a Padre fan who’s been able to watch a lot more games this year, none of these stats surprise me. I’d been meaning to look up the solo HR totals because I also noticed that it seems like all he ever does is hit solo home runs. It seems like he had a better idea of how to just plain hit last year, so let’s hope he figures it out again this year. And it’s funny you mention similarities to Renfroe, because he seems the opposite when it comes to hitting home runs, there’s always someone on. How do they compare to each other in these categories? Since I’m too lazy to look it up myself!!
I’d file the solo homer trend under the interesting but meaningless file. It’s not like Franmil writes himself to bat second in the lineup everyday when he’s way better suited to bat cleanup or fifth and he also can’t control if the batters in front of him get on base or not. Also I think Manny would be doing better offensively if pitchers knew they had to deal with Franmil batting behind him and couldn’t pitch around the edges and off the plate to Manny all the time because of the threat of an instant crooked number on the scoreboard from Franmil.
I think that there are some confounding variables contributing to some of the odd stats here. His solo shot vs home runs with runners on base has a lot to do with the lineup around him and place in the batting order. I expect these numbers will look less drastic as time goes on.
He needs to work on not chasing out of the zone. If he could improve in this area,he could become an offensive force.
The reason he isn’t hitting a lot of doubles is because when he elevates a ball, which for most people is in the gap, it’s over the fence.
For people who only see highlights of his homeruns or maybe a strikeout, chasing a pitch a foot above the strike zone, what you might not see is his ability to rifle line drives to right field. Last year he did a better job of shortening up with 2 strikes and putting the ball in play. Right now it seems he is chasing a homerun title. My point being that while I see some flaws, I also see the potential to improve.
PADRES will fire the batting coach after Preller reads this.
To all those people whining about how people critique the content:
While I agree that sometimes it’s just borderline stupid, the reality is that this site a limited amount of resources and can produce only so many articles in a day, as do all publications. Commentary on what that content should be is OBVIOUSLY acceptable. Constructive criticism is far more useful than any white knighting you could perform in opposition.
That all being said…. Some people have stupid critiques. But how about we start pointing out why the criticism is dumb, instead of asserting that it’s inappropriate… Because the wrong person is coming across as the moron in this scenario.
Reyes has finally been moved from the 2 spot to the 4 spot. So let’s see if having more hitters (especially Tatis) ahead of him will lead to more hr with runners on base. I’ll state I think it will. Also with Renfroe batting after him, he will likely see better pitches.
Apparently nobody noticed Hunter Renfroe is on the same pace?