Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman is one of several prominent major leaguers who will have a chance to opt out of his contract after the season. Unlike a lot of his peers, there’s seemingly a realistic shot Chapman will vacate the remainder of his deal.
The Cuban fireballer briefly discussed his future with Ken Davidoff of the New York Post during this week’s All-Star festivities, saying through an interpreter: “Honestly, I haven’t been thinking about that at all because through these years, I’ve dealt with some injuries. So the concentration and the focus was to stay healthy this year and try to have a good season. It hasn’t even crossed my mind.”
Chapman’s in his second go-around with the Yankees, who acquired the superstar left-hander for a fairly underwhelming package of players from the Reds in December 2015 amid troubling domestic violence allegations. The league suspended Chapman for the first 30 games of 2016, but he came back to dominate on the mound with New York that year. The Yankees weren’t surefire contenders when the summer rolled around, though, and Chapman was on the cusp of free agency. Consequently, they traded him to the Cubs in a win-win deal. The Yankees landed middle infielder Gleyber Torres, then an excellent prospect and now a terrific 22-year-old major leaguer. The Cubs, with Chapman’s help, won their first World Series in 108 years.
Fresh off his championship with the Cubs, Chapman rejoined the Yankees heading into 2017 for a five-year, $86MM payday. That’s still the largest guarantee ever awarded to a reliever. Chapman will have another two years and $30MM left on his contract after this season, but considering the way he has pitched, the soon-to-be 32-year-old could try his hand in free agency again.
Now a six-time All-Star, Chapman has avoided injuries in 2019 and recorded a matching 1.82 ERA/1.82 FIP with 12.98 K/9, 3.12 BB/9 (one of the lowest walk rates of his career) and a 45.2 percent groundball rate over 34 2/3 innings. Chapman has racked up 24 saves in 27 tries in the process, giving him 260 on 290 tries in his career. Adding to Chapman’s appeal, Statcast regards him as elite or close to it in strikeout percentage, hard-hit rate, exit velocity against, expected batting average against, expected slugging percentage and expected weighted on-base average.
If you’re looking for negatives, Chapman’s K/9, although hefty, is the second-worst mark of his career. Meanwhile, Chapman’s swinging-strike percentage (12.3) is a personal low, merely above average and far less than his lifetime figure (16.8). A drop in four-seam velocity has possibly contributed to Chapman missing fewer bats, though his 98 mph heat remains plenty imposing, and the 99.9 average on his sinker – a pitch he uses just over 10 percent of the time – is jaw-dropping.
All things considered, Chapman has a legitimate case to head back to the open market, where he’d again be the most proven closer available. Unlike his previous trip to free agency, though, Chapman would surely come with a qualifying offer attached. The Yankees wouldn’t simply let him walk for nothing.
Why would he even bother after watching what happened to Kimbrel?
Good point
Kimbrel got 3/43 with a 4th year option.
So Chapman is still making more. Chapman for the next 2 seasons is 2-30mill. That’s 15 mill a year. And Kimbrel is at 14.3 mill a year. That’s not a good argument by saying ohh he got 3/43.
Do you not realize that $43M is more than $34M? That’s all Chapman is guaranteed is $34M for the next 2 years? Chapman could blow out his arm and never pitch after this contract. A 3 year deal gives him MORE MONEY. Contracts are NOT about AAV. They are about the total value.
It’s not all about total value either. AAV does matter too. It’s a balance.
You’re no more accurate claiming 3/43 is a better deal than the other guy saying 2/34 is a better deal.
Personally I view the 2/34 better and then see what I get on the open market after the fact than significantly drop my AAV for 2 years for a 3rd year that would net me an extra 50% of my current contract in that extra guaranteed year.
That’s just me. Yeah he could “blow out his arm”. But he could also pitch perfectly fine, get offered a QO and accept it after his current contract ends.
You’re just playing a “what-if” game to try and prove a point. Doesn’t make you more accurate in claiming 3/$43 is better.
So let me ask you this. Chapman opts out. He goes to FA. He gets one offer for let’s say, 2/40. He gets another for 3/47. You honestly think he’s taking the 2 year deal? There is no what if game. It’s a GUARANTEED $$$ game. If he was 26 and not 32, then your scenario makes sense. But as a closer at his age, he’s taking all the money he can.
And yet Grandal just got done taking a 1 year deal and bypassing the Mets offer of a MUCH larger total sum.
You’re getting exposed hard right now. Stop posting to me. I’m doing you a favor letting you know now before you get embarrassed worse than you already have been
“Rosenthal noted on Thursday on the MLB Network that it was Grandal — not his agents — who turned down the deal from the Mets since he was unhappy with the average annual value.”
I’d say that’s pretty much checkmate. We’re done here.
The calculation for him is total earning power opting out now and signing a new vs. total earning power playing his contract out, and the contract he thinks he can get at that point.
Not sure what world you live in but with an AAV that high, there isn’t a single player in this league that would take the 3/47 that you suggested over the 2/40. No one assumes or expects (and rightfully so) their value to be 50% less on year 3.
Harper did. He took less AAV. So did Machado. I live in the world that all these guys do. You take the guaranteed money. Not sure if any of you are paying attention to what is going on in baseball? You are seeing players starting to get wise and sign extensions rather than go to FA. Goldschmidt opted to skip FA. Now that is proving to be a wise decision. More will follow.
Sure they would when they would be a 35 year old closer. And Kimbrel didn’t get anymore AAV in his contract. Same amount each year. He turned down 1 and 2 year deals that were higher AAV, but he held out for that 3rd year with 4th year option.
I don’t know if you know this, but every person and every situation is different. id want more money to play on the dumpster fire known as the Mets too
I understand completely. That’s why players are taking the guaranteed money and not falling in love with AAV.
Grandal was a FA with a QA, Chapman is an opt out. How you could bring that up in this comparison and claim to “expose” someone in this argument is baffling. You lost by bringing up Grandal. Both situations are not the same. Not even close. Consider yourself the loser in this debate, and you did it all on your own.
Trim, the best part was his “checkmate” call, like he backed me into a corner of a no win situation. Then, he goes running to the forum moderator and flags me.
If Chapman opts out he gets slapped with a QO like Grandal and then the situations aren’t so dissimilar. The only difference is that Chap would be walking away from a guaranteed 34 MM first. I see little to no chance he doesn’t opt out barring a catastrophic meltdown or injury between now and then.
I’m with Nick Stevens on this one. Some players want to throw the dice to get more money but largely the most guaranteed money is what they’re after. Especially for someone as volatile as a reliever, and one who’ll be 32 next year. If he stays in this contract and doesn’t opt out then he’ll be 34 going into free agency. Idk how much a reliever (even if he is successful and not injured over the next few years) can expect at that age on the open market. Take as much money as you can get guaranteed
Bring back downvotes for stuff like this.
Yeah, bring back down votes. God knows baseball discussions deserve downvotes. Good God!
Another thought…who can afford him? Sox? Who else would pay that much for a closer and be contending and not have a closer?
Took awhile though. Lest not forget what he and many other FA’s were subjected to over this past offseason, by what many might theorize as strategized, colluded efforts organized to stymie unreasonable player/agent demands. He finally took what he could .
I agree. I think it would be stupid. He’s not going to get 15 million a year or even a 5 year 50. He’s going nowhere.
I actually think if anything his best bet would be to try and leverage this opt out he has to ask the Yankees to tack on a year or two to his current deal.
Yankees will probably call his bluff, but I think it’s the best chance he has to get paid the most.
It would have to be at least two years. The Yankees may let him walk. They have other guys who can close.
And the fact that his arm is going fall off from throwing 103 mile per hour fastballs. It’s bound to happen sooner or later.
Chapman wasn’t demanding 6 years, $100MM. Nor did he have a draft pick compensation attached to him.
Kimbrel also had a draft pick compensation attached
Because he’s much better than Kimbrel was in ’18.
True!!! He’d get burned like Kimbrell and Kuechel
as much as you can see how he can make more money, the relief market was quite weak last offseason, and he’s getting a QO if he opts out. Kimbrel 2.0 most likely.
A 32 year old closer walking away from $34M to go back into FA is a risky decision. I guess since Kimbrel got 3/43, there’s a chance Chapman could get that extra year too. Closers are just so fragile, and most teams are steering away from their large contracts.
A big second half for Chapman would open the opt out possibility. Like Cespedes. If Chapman wants more years of guaranteed money he will get it, but maybe only for 1 extra year. Dominant Chapman opens that door.
Then again, JD Martinez could in-theory opt out and re-sign with Boston for, say, 4 years at 70 mil. Less per season, gives Boston (some) breathing room at the Luxury. Not saying it would ever happen. In fact, it probably won’t.
Chapman will obiliterate a 2/34 if he keeps this up. He’ll easily get 4/60 from any number of teams. Kimbrel could’ve gotten that also had he not played around with 100 million dollars in his head all spring.
Considering he doesn’t want to play for a west coast team, that eliminates the deep pockets of SF, LAD and LAA. Boston already passed on Kimbrel, so why would they give a big offer to Chapman who is older and his K rate is decreasing? And if he walks away from the Yankees, he has now eliminated 5 big market teams. 4 years would be a big risk.
Striking out nearly 13 per 9 is still elite. They put that in the article because he averaged an insane 16 per 9 last year. He has had some fluctuation in his K rate over his career. His numbers are absolutely elite. I’d rather him striking out 13 per 9 and walking 3 than K’ing 16 and walking 5 last year anyhow. There’s no shortage of teams who would die to have him at 2/34. If he opts out and can’t find the 4/60 (which I seriously doubt) he’ll get a 2/36 in a heartbeat. There is no way he can’t match that offer. There’s just no argument for that.
And where do you hear that Chapman hates the west coast? That sounds like another, “Patrick Corbin loves NY so much he’ll take a discount” crap. Feelings tend to change when there’s millions more coming your way
Chapman’s list of no trade protection is Seattle and any team located in California. That’s where I got that.
That’s a fair point. But if 60 million dollars is on the table versus 30. Preferences can easily change. I’m sure his preferred solution would be an extension from NY. But if that doesn’t materialize he has to test the waters with only 30 million bucks left on his deal.
Chapman will likely threaten to opt out, and in return get an added year of $15M and possibly full no trade. Or they could throw away the remaining 2 year $30M and give him 2/40. It’s anyone’s guess how this will pan out.
We definitely don’t know but there’s no way his market isn’t much stronger than 2/30. Whatever the decision is I’m sure it’ll involve Chapman getting more money one way or the other.
Will he do better than 17 mil per on the open market? I don’t think so
If gets a 3 year deal he will get more.
Question off topic but closer related
If Francisco Mejia brought in an All Star RP in Brad Hand and a very good RP in Adam Cimber
What could/would Christian Pache realistically pull in a similar trade scenario ?????
Will you please stick to the subject of the article.
The subject of whether the closer of arguably the best team in baseball will opt out of his contract at season end ????
17 days from the 1st ever single trade season date and the topic of an opt out is what is being posted.
Sorry the topic is stupid and I want to get the opinion of the many intelligent ppl on here on a topic that is more relevant than an opt out clause in mid July.
And I am limited in time today to wait around until a post that may be relatable pops up.
I stated it was off topic and I am far from the only person on here to ever post unrelated to a topic.
Saying you’re not the only one don’t make it right bro!
Giles and Stroman.
Doesn’t matter. Pache isn’t going anywhere. They’d trade arms, not bats.
Dodgers needed him. They should have grabbed him when they had the chance……
He may find a taker in FA, but any team dumb enough to give Chapman a 3rd or 4th year deserves the decline the’ll get.
If I’m the Yankees and he opts out I’d offer him the QO and let him walk. Chapmans success is base on throwing 100 mph gas. As he moves into his mid 30’s that velo is likely to begin its decline. I’m fine with 2/$30m going forward, but I would be hesitant to go any longer than that.
It’s going to be an interesting decision for Chapman should be continue to perform without issue till seasons end. Relievers are getting paid, but Kimbrel’s situation has thrown a little shade on the FA closer market. A 33 year old Chapman on the open market gets……..? It’s an open question. I could see a team in need of some certainty in the 9th throwing 3 years at him, but at the same time I wouldn’t be surprised if teams limit offers to 2. It’s going to be interesting to see. The AAV is another curiousity. Does he get more than $15m per? I think he opts in personally, but I’m not certain of it.
He’s pitched better this year than Kimbrel did last year. Unless he blows up down the stretch, he can absolutely do better than 2/30m.
I think the most likely scenario is the Yankees add another 2/30m onto the end of his existing deal in exchange for him not opting out.
The problem guys like Kimbrel and Chapman face isn’t that they aren’t inarguably great pitchers, it’s that there’s a point of diminishing returns with pitchers like that. Not that they aren’t the best late inning relievers out there, but a lot of pitchers can provide the same basic results without being quite as dominant. That’s going to be reflected in their contracts.
The focus the Yankees have put on stacking it over the last few years suggests they don’t agree. It’s a good strategy for a team with essentially unlimited resources that expects to be in the playoffs every year.
Not sure what that has to do with what I said.
You said there’s diminishing returns in stacking a bunch of great relievers. Based on the personnel decisions the Yankees have made, I don’t think they agree.
Except he has a filthy slider too. And he’s a lefty. Pay attention to the deadline and see how much a guy like Watson or Smith get relative to rhp counterparts.
Will Watson or Smith get more than Kimbrel? Highly, highly doubt that.
Smith may.
Not because he’s a lefty, just because he’s 5 years younger and having a better season. He has a much shorter track record as an elite reliever, though.
I don’t think righty or lefty matters, although there’s probably a premium for either if they don’t have a severe platoon split.
Smith is 30 years old with just 38 career saves. In my opinion, I don’t give him more money than Chapman or Kimbrel. 3/36 would be the offer I give Will Smith.
I can’t see smith going for less than 4/48 or maybe a Kimbrel-esque 3/43. I don’t think 36 does it. Too good and left handed. If he topped that it wouldn’t surprise me.
Smith has almost no track record. Look at his career ERA: 3.53… or career rWAR: 3.7… he’s 29 and his whole career is worth like one elite season of an elite closer and you want to pay him like one.
Clown take. Put Smith’s last 2 seasons up against anyone in baseball. Take a look at his last 4 while you’re at it. They’re very good to elite seasons. Btw if you’re going to give me a career ERA please don’t do so for a guy who used to be a Starting Pitcher. Absolutely useless number you just slapped up there that was inflated by his year as a starter.
And to stay on topic if Chapman were to opt out it would be the best thing to happen to the Yankees. That bullpen is stacked and the closer position could easily be replaced. Maybe not as good as Chapman but definitely cheaper.
I don’t know if they can offer a QO on an opt out but if they could that could keep negotiations in their court cause a team would not want to give up that pick
Again a terrible topic this close to the only trade deadline date. And a waste of time.
If you’d like to choose the topics, then start your own website.
Stating my opinion if you don’t like it don’t read it
My guess, Chapman threaten to opt out unless the yankees tack on more money and more years. An extension will be signed, end of story.
Oh good, end of story. We can all log off now.
I see that MJ reported me to the moderators because I was making him look foolish. Harper didn’t take the highest AAV. Neither do many players. It’s about the guarantee and total money for security. $25M was NOT Harper’s highest AAV offered, but $330M was.
MJ took his ball and went home.
Then he told his mother to call your mother.
His opinion is the only one that counts.
Well, he did call “checkmate” even though my bishop took his king.
It’s all fun and games until a narc reports you
He reported you? Maybe he’s JDGoat’s burner account?
When you reply to a specific person and it pops up, “under moderator review”, that means that person flagged you. i.e. reported you.
Weak….
Can’t see it being worth the risk. Would anyone really offer way more than NY is already on the hook for?
Holy cow there is some dummies up top. First off, Chapman is a lefty. Way more valuable than a comparable righty. Also, he does love NY, so I wouldn’t put it out of question he resigns for less money to stay than to go, but yeah, he’s definitely opting out. Guy could get a 3-4 year deal. The dodgers are likely interested. The cubs have $$ coming off the books. Other contenders like Philly and the Nats could use a closer. This guy will have no worries finding a suitor. My guess he sticks with Yankees on 3yr-51MM deal with option for 4th year.
Chapman’s current contract of AAV is as follows. $16M in 2017. $20M in 2018. $20M in 2019. $15M in 2020. $15M in 2021.
So basically you’re saying Chapman should/might get a 1 year, $20m extension? That’s the same as opting out and getting a 3 year/$51m deal except this let’s us backload his contract a little bit. So I agree!
The Yankees could trade Chapman after the season to any team except Seattle, SF, SD, Oakland, LAA or LAD. They could offer full trade protection to keep him from opting out.
What are you talking about?
Those 6 teams are on his no trade list in his contract. That means there are 23 other teams the Yankees can trade him to. If they give him full no trade protection, he might not opt out. That’s what I’m talking about.
I don’t see Chapman opting out, as he said he has had some injuries, and the Yanks are the only team that could withstand an injury to their closer and stay in contention.
Would love to see him opt out, and Boston offer him a three year contract, maybe 4
If he opts out Yanks should let him walk and resign Betances and ya him, Britton, and Green in a shared closer role!
Save money and use somewhere else perhaps for Garrit Cole.
Or the Yankees could still go after Gerrit Cole with Chappy because they’re the Ny Yankees . They have no need to operate like the Cleveland Indians.
The Yankees will be going after Gerrit Cole no matter what.
The only competitors will be on the west coast where he can surf all year long.
His brother in law Brandon Crawford is the shortstop for the Giants.
It’s close. Usually when it’s close the safe bet is on the player not opting out.
I don’t see how it’s close. Take a 2/34 and go to FA when you’re 33 or opt out and try to get a longer deal at 31 off a very good/elite season. Barring a collapse or injury how does he not opt out? Kimbrel would’ve beat that deal this offseason had he been amenable to it from the get go. Coming off a statistically worse season and an awful postseason.
This isn’t Kenley Jansen who is showing serious signs of regression. Chapman looks about as good as ever. Don’t think this is a close call at all personally.
It is close because he seems to enjoy his stay in NY and the QO inhibits signing.He may also not want to go through the pain of free agency.I think that Chapman still is one of the best and has stayed that way for many years.My guess is that he tries to get an extra premium year from the Yankees then at 35 it will become a free agent crap shoot as to whether he can demand any AAV or years.
He’s too good, he won’t experience pain in FA. No way. But Yanks may extend anyway.
I don’t think he’ll have any issues finding a 3 year deal at a premium AAV. If the Yankees put him up for sale right now they’d have the phone ringing off the hook trying to get this guy. I’m positive the Dodgers would love to add him to their back end. QO compensation is not going to limit his market lower than 34MM. The price isn’t all that steep if he signed under 50MM either. That comfortably gives him space to beat the deal he currently has. But I’m sure a team like the Dodgers would gladly pay the over 50 MM draft pick compensation price as well.
30 million. I kept putting 34 on my posts I see. That makes the opt out that much easier of a decision. I don’t see anyway in hell he doesn’t opt out of a 2/30. Kimbrel got a 3/43 and skipped 1/3 of the season. This should be a cut and dry case assuming he doesn’t get hurt or completely implode.
It would have to be at least two years. The Yankees may let him walk. They have other guys who can close.
An opt-out, followed by a QO, followed by a multiyear contract with another team might make the best sense for both parties.
How does he not know English by now?
He does speak some English, haven’t you seen him talking to teammates? What language do you you think CC & him were speaking when Sabathia made a mound visit in the all star game? He just doesn’t feel comfortable enough with his command of English to speak to the media, which is understandable. Same goes for a lot of our Spanish speaking guys
Have you guys watched Chapman pitch this season? His numbers look good but on the field he looks significantly worse. 3/4 of the time he can’t get his fastball over the plate and is going to his slider on 3-0. At some point his luck is going to run out and the money you’re talking about is going to look amazing – he’s worth 20/2 or 25/2 tops – he’d be smarter to stay on (although I REALLY hope he doesn’t).
I think the biggest point some people here are missing is that neither the Yankees nor Red Sox were bidding for Craig Kimbrel this past offseason. That can change for Chapman if he opts out.
I doubt he opts out because the Yankees are going to prioritize keeping him. Cash will probably offer him another 2 year deal worth around $30m. So, in that scenario, he’d then be signed for 4 years (2020-2023) for $60m. That’s a lot of financial security for a reliever – and probably enough to keep away any potential suitors.
Even if my 2 year/$30m extension idea isn’t enough, I’m sure Cashman will offer whatever IS enough to extend Chappy & avoid the inevitable bidding war that will ensue if he opts out.
Zero chance he opts out. He’s already rich and after the Kimbrel fiasco any reliever that opts out of a guaranteed $15 million per for the next two years is silly. No team will offer him more than 3 years or more than his current annual salary of $15 million. It’s simply not worth the risk.
You’re setting yourself up to be floored in a couple months.