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The Most Improved Offense Of 2019

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After unexpectedly earning a playoff berth in 2017, the Twins finished far out of contention last season with a 78-84 record. The club’s offense contributed to its mediocrity a year ago, ranking 13th in the majors in runs, 19th in wRC+ (95) and 23rd in homers. Aside from infielder Eduardo Escobar, whom Minnesota traded to Arizona before the end-of-July deadline, none of its regulars posted well above-average offensive production. Additionally, the Twins handed out a couple thousand plate appearances to players who were so-so or worse at the plate. Franchise icon Joe Mauer, who retired at season’s end, as well as Brian Dozier (traded last summer) and offseason departures Robbie Grossman, Logan Morrison and Logan Forsythe were among those responsible for Minnesota’s middle-of-the-pack attack.

Unlike last season, there hasn’t been anything run-of-the-mill about the Twins’ offense. In fact, the unit has been downright scary, a key reason why the Twins have sprinted to the majors’ fourth-ranked record (56-33). No team has scored more runs than the Twins, who are tied atop the league at 509 and have seen their wRC+ climb a whopping 21 points to 116 (second in baseball). With 166 home runs, the Twins are first in the majors and on pace to eclipse the record 266 the Yankees swatted just last season.

The club’s marked offensive improvement is the product of in-house talent coming into its own and shrewd offseason pickups by chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine. A slew of holdovers – shortstop Jorge Polanco (19), center fielder Byron Buxton (19), outfielder Max Kepler (25), utilityman Ehire Adrianza (30), third baseman Miguel Sano (44), and catchers Mitch Garver (53) and Jason Castro (83) – have each boosted their wRC+ by sizable amounts. Meanwhile, unheralded rookie utility player Luis Arraez has recorded a phenomenal 162 wRC+  in his first 95 plate appearances.

The Twins also helped their cause with a few notable additions to their offense over the winter, including the signing of accomplished slugger Nelson Cruz to a one-year, $14.3MM deal. Cruz couldn’t find a multiyear contract because of his advanced age (39), but he still isn’t showing signs of slowing down. He has smashed 16 homers, giving him 376 for his career, and is on track to finish with a 130-plus wRC+ for the sixth straight year.

Fellow free-agent signings Jonathan Schoop (103 wRC+) and Marwin Gonzalez (94) haven’t been close to as effective as Cruz, but Schoop has outdone the offensive output Dozier and Forsythe put up at second in 2018. Gonzalez has come on strong since an ice-cold April, thereby doing his best to justify the two-year, $21MM investment Minnesota made in him.

The team also utilized the waiver wire to its advantage in the offseason, scooping up first baseman C.J. Cron after the Rays cut him on the heels of a 30-home run season. Cron, whom the Rays didn’t want to pay an estimated $5.2MM in arbitration, settled for $4.8MM after catching on with the Twins. The 29-year-old’s numbers have dipped compared to last season’s, though he has still hit .266/.326/.495 (111 wRC+) in 331 PA and added 17 HRs to the Twins’ potentially historic ledger.

With the Twins hoping to vie for a World Series in the season’s second half, it’s fair to wonder whether their offense can keep up this type of pace. Statcast’s expected weighted on-base average metric presents a mixed bag of answers. Castro, Cruz, Gonzalez and Cron have all logged xwOBAs ranging from 29 to 55 points better than their actual marks. On the other hand, the xwOBAs of Polanco and Kepler are 15 points lower, Buxton’s is 26 points inferior, Sano’s lagging by 43 and Garver by 57. However, Polanco, Kepler and Garver are still clearly above average in the category. Meantime, there’s not much difference for Adrianza, Schoop or slugging outfielder Eddie Rosario.

Between a high-octane offense and a quality pitching staff, the Twins are legitimate candidates to play deep into the fall this year. Of course, there’s still work to be done around this month’s trade deadline (perhaps by acquiring another starter and more relief help) for a team trying to hold off the hard-charging Indians in the American League Central.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

An Underrated Waiver Pickup

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The Marlins finally parted with catcher J.T. Realmuto last offseason, making him the latest household name to exit Miami via trade. Other than that, the rebuilding club unsurprisingly engaged in a quiet winter. The Marlins handed out just two guaranteed contracts, signing veteran Band-Aids Neil Walker and Sergio Romo for a combined $4.5MM, and made the rest of their acquisitions via low-key trades, minor league signings and waiver claims. Three months into the season, one of those waiver pickups has been a steal for Miami.

The Marlins claimed reliever Austin Brice from the fellow non-contending Orioles on Feb. 4. The transaction reunited the right-handed Brice and the organization he started his career with when it chose him in the ninth round of the 2010 draft. Brice stuck with the Marlins for several years and made his major league debut with them in 2016, but they traded him and righty starter Luis Castillo to the Reds in the ensuing offseason as part of a deal for RHP Dan Straily. Considering the emergence of Castillo as a front-line starter in Cincinnati, not to mention that Straily lasted a meager two years in Miami, the trade obviously hasn’t worked out for the Marlins. However, thanks to their reunion with Brice, it looks a tad less unfortunate (albeit still highly regrettable).

Brice, who turned 27 last month, didn’t have the makings of a particularly interesting pickup for the Marlins when they brought him back. He was coming off a two-year stretch with the Reds in which he pitched to a 5.40 ERA with 7.5 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 70 innings. Unimpressed, the Reds decided early in the offseason to cut the cord on Brice. He then had brief winter stints with the Angels and Orioles after each of those teams claimed him off waivers, finally finding a home with the Marlins about two months before the season began.

Just past the halfway point of the 2019 campaign, Brice has come to the fore as one of the most productive waiver additions of the offseason. Through 37 1/3 innings, which ties him for first among Marlins relievers, Brice has logged a sterling 1.93 ERA. Some of his other numbers – including 8.68 K/9 against 3.38 BB/9 and a 3.84 FIP – don’t inspire nearly as much confidence. However, Brice ranks much closer to the top of the majors than the bottom in weighted on-base average/expected wOBA against (.253/.276). He has also been a bear to deal with for both righties and lefties, having limited the former to a .237 wOBA and the latter to a .274 mark.

Brice’s success has come with a change in repertoire. When the Marlins brought Brice back in the winter, president of baseball operations Michael Hill called him a “severe sinkerball pitcher.” Compared to 2018, though, Brice’s sinker usage has, well, sunk. He utilized the pitch 48.5 percent of the time in his Cincinnati swan song, but it’s down to 22.4 in his return to Miami. Brice is now relying primarily on his curveball, which is up to 44.2 percent usage after sitting at 28.1 a year ago and ranks in the league’s 96th percentile in spin rate. He has also leaned heavily on his four-seamer, having thrown it almost 9 percent more than he did last season (28.5 to 19.8).

The switch in pitch mix has yielded encouraging results for Brice, whose curve (.219 wOBA/.253 xwOBA) and four-seamer (.173/.133) have stymied opposing hitters. Turning to those pitches more has helped Brice rank well above average in hard-hit rate against (65th percentile), exit velocity (68th), xwOBA (84th), expected batting average (84th) and expected slugging percentage (93rd).

Nine years after they drafted him, the Marlins may have stumbled on a useful multiyear piece in Brice, who’s not slated to reach arbitration until after 2020 or free agency until the end of the 2023 campaign. It’s a welcome bit of good news for a team which owns the NL’s worst record, 33-55, and hasn’t had many causes for celebration this season.

Minor MLB Transactions: 7/10/19

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We’ll track Wednesday’s minor moves throughout baseball here…

  • The Rangers announced that corner infielder Patrick Wisdom has cleared outright waivers and been assigned to Triple-A Nashville. The 27-year-old went 4-for-26 with a double in a brief nine-game stint with Texas and has scuffled to a .199/.310/.389 slash in 259 plate appearances with Nashville this season. However, Wisdom mashed at a .288/.363/.480 clip in 421 PAs with the Cardinals’ top affiliate last season. The former supplemental-round pick has a generally solid track record in Triple-A and will stick around with the Texas org as a depth option in the event of further injuries at the MLB level.

Earlier Moves

  • The Tigers announced that right-hander Austin D. Adams cleared waivers and was sent outright to Triple-A Toledo. Not to be confused with the Mariners reliever of the same first and last name (Austin L. Adams) the 32-year-old Adams returned to the big leagues in 2019 for the first time since 2016 but hasn’t experienced much in the way of success. In 16 2/3 innings between the Twins and Tigers, Adams has a 7.02 ERA with 14 strikeouts, 13 walks and four homers allowed. He logged an impressive 28-to-6 K/BB ratio in 18 innings with Minnesota’s Triple-A club earlier this year and has a lifetime 3.64 ERA and 10.1 K/9 at that level. Adams has previously been outrighted, so he’ll have the option of rejecting the assignment in favor of free agency, although a threadbare Tigers ’pen that looks likely to lose Shane Greene via trade in the next three weeks could present Adams a viable path back to the Majors later in the year.

Dodgers Notes: Seager, Bullpen Trades, Ryu

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The Dodgers announced today that they’ve activated Corey Seager from the injured list and optioned first baseman/outfielder Matt Beaty to Triple-A Oklahoma City. Seager, 25, will ultimately miss just under a month due to a strained left hamstring. He’ll now rejoin a Dodgers roster that recently welcomed David Freese back from the injured list and is set to get A.J. Pollock back as well. Los Angeles still has a 13.5 game lead on the second-place Diamondbacks and will likely be in an all-the-more commanding position with several key players back to full strength. However, the L.A. front office still has some work to do in the three weeks leading up to the trade deadline. Here’s a look at the latest chatter on the Dodgers…

  • The Dodgers have “varying levels of interest in multiple Giants relievers,” writes MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. Unsurprisingly, Los Angeles harbor some degree of interest in each of Will Smith, Sam Dyson, Tony Watson and Reyes Moronta. That quartet likely appeals to the majority of contending clubs throughout the game, though, and there’s no indication within Morosi’s report that there are any substantive talks between the two sides. The Dodgers are loath to part with any of their top four prospects for a rental reliever, making Gavin Lux, Dustin May, Keibert Ruiz and their own Will Smith unlikely to change hands in any type of deal for one of San Francisco’s short-term assets.
  • If the recent comments from Pirates GM Neal Huntington didn’t sufficiently quash the Dodgers/Felipe Vazquez connection, Morosi writes that Pittsburgh would require “at least two” of the four aforementioned top prospects (Lux, May, Smith, Ruiz) to headline a Vazquez deal. Between that and Huntington’s declaration that the team’s “expectation and anticipation is that Felipe will be closing out playoff games, be it this year or in the future with us,” it doesn’t seem wise to bank on Vazquez landing in Los Angeles (or anywhere else, for that matter).
  • In a more high-level look at the Dodgers’ trade needs, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com points out that the Andrew Friedman-led Dodgers have not been a team that has been willing to deal away its very best prospects, making a high-profile acquisition of Smith, Brad Hand, Vazquez, etc. less likely than some trades to more affordably acquire some second-tier relievers on the market. He suggests that a reunion with Watson or Blue Jays righty Daniel Hudson is more plausible than a marquee splash. (To be clear, those are speculative examples listed by Gurnick rather than specific trades that the Dodgers are actively pursuing.)
  • Hyun-Jin Ryu’s gamble on accepting the qualifying offer made by the Dodgers could prove one of the wisest decisions of the offseason, writes Jorge Castillo of the L.A. Times, who notes that Ryu is now positioned to cash in on a major contract (without the burden of draft compensation, as players can only receive one qualifying offer in their careers). Indeed, over his past 191 1/3 regular-season innings, Ryu has a 1.83 ERA with 8.8 K/9, 1.2 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9 and a 48.6 percent ground-ball rate. More broadly, Castillo’s column is a terrific look at the long road that Ryu took from intriguing high-school prospect coveted by the Dodgers and Twins to 2019 All-Star Game starter. Dodgers fans who have not previously familiarized themselves with Ryu’s path to stardom in the United States will want to be sure to give the story a read-through.

Yankees, Second-Rounder Josh Smith Agree To Terms

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The Yankees have agreed to a deal with No. 67 overall draft pick Josh Smith, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). The now-former Louisiana State shortstop will sign for his full slot value of $967,700.

Smith, 21, hit .346/.433/.533 with nine home runs, 17 doubles, a pair of triples and 20 stolen bases in his junior season at LSU. Entering the draft, he was ranked by Fangraphs as the No. 53 prospect available, while Baseball America tabbed him 68th and MLB.com listed him at No. 76. Smith doesn’t draw plus grades for any single tool but has average or above-average rankings across the board. He’s listed at 5’10” and 175 pounds, and most reports give him a chance to stick at shortstop even though some believe a move to second base is ultimately in his future. Smith had been the only unsigned pick among the Yankees’ selections in the draft’s first 10 rounds.

Red Sox Release Tyler Thornburg

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The Red Sox have released righty Tyler Thornburg, per a club announcement (via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, on Twitter). That was the anticipated outcome after the reliever declined an optional assignment.

Thornburg will be now take to the open market in search of a bounceback opportunity elsewhere. He’s promised a $1.75MM salary from the Boston organization regardless. Other clubs can consider bringing him aboard for nothing more than the league-minimum rate of pay for whatever time he spends at the major-league level. While Thornburg hasn’t been a productive big league pitcher in quite some time, he’s still only 30 years of age and is sure to catch on with a rival team (likely on a minors pact).

The trade that brought Thornburg to the Red Sox stings quite a bit in retrospect. Travis Shaw ended up giving the Brewers two quality seasons; while he has struggled this year, the Milwaukee org also just called up the other key piece of the swap — infielder Mauricio Dubon. While he isn’t seen as a blue-chipper, the 24-year-old has handled the bat well at Triple-A and is generally viewed as a valuable prospect.

Latest On Kyle Freeland

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Rockies starter Kyle Freeland could soon be ready for a return to the majors, if he isn’t already, Nick Groke of The Athletic explains (subscription link) in the course of an excellent examination of the demoted southpaw.

There’s still no formal indication whether and when the Colorado organization will elect to call back Freeland. But the club is badly in need of a boost after dropping six-straight contests heading into the All-Star break. And Freeland says he’s ready to roll.

“I feel back to myself,” says Freeland, who was optioned at the end of May after a brutal start to the season. That came on the heels of a stirring 2018 performance in which he landed fourth in the National League’s Cy Young voting. While there was cause to anticipate some regression, it seemed at the time that the Denver native was destined to be a rotation stalwart for years to come.

After allowing more than seven earned runs per nine innings in a dozen MLB starts, Freeland has coughed up almost a run per frame in his half-dozen outings at Triple-A. With 28 strikeouts against 16 walks, he’s not exactly posting dominant K/BB numbers against second-level competition.

But those numbers only tell part of the tale, Groke writes. When Freeland was demoted, the prevailing sense was that he was in good shape physically and mechanically. The issue, rather, was that he had become predictable to big-league hitters. The Rox initially told Freeland to rely exclusively on his fastball and change. He wasn’t working on big fixes; as he puts it, “it was just getting back to being myself.”

That’s approximately the same characterization that skipper Bud Black puts on the situation. He expressed confidence, saying he anticipates Freeland will “exhibit confidence in his pitch mix” and “be more dimensional.” It’s all but impossible to really say what that will look like on the mound. As Groke explains, though, that’s due to Freeland’s nature as a pitcher who succeeds by mixing, matching, and adapting constantly with his expansive repertoire.

While Freeland may feel himself, it remains to be seen whether he can again pitch anything like the version of himself that was capable of a full season of sub-3.00 ERA ball at Coors Field. He was bombed in his last Triple-A outing of the month of June, coughing up nine earned runs in 3 1/3 innings, but then bounced back with a sterling outing just before the break (9 strikeouts, 2 walks, four hits, 1 earned run in 7 innings).

There’s loads of uncertainty, but the Rockies have little choice but to give Freeland another shot — likely in the relatively near future. Groke says the club is inclined to call up Chi Chi Gonzalez for an upcoming doubleheader spot start, but anticipates a need for a fifth starter later this month. That’s only part of the picture, though, as the club’s current four-man rotation mix is not without broader issues. German Marquez and Jon Gray have been sturdy; otherwise, the Colorado club has received shaky output. Antonio Senzatela (who has been destroyed by lefty hitters) and newcomer Peter Lambert (nine home runs allowed in 29 2/3 innings) haven’t thrived any more than did Freeland, Jeff Hoffman, Tyler Anderson, and Chad Bettis. If the Rox are to hand in the Wild Card race, they’ll need to get more consistency from their starting staff.

Nationals Activate, Option Kyle Barraclough

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The Nationals announced today that they have activated righty Kyle Barraclough from the 10-day injured list. Rather than bringing him back onto the MLB roster, the club optioned Barraclough to Double-A.

Barraclough had been sidelined since mid-June with nerve irritation in his right forearm. The 29-year-old, acquired over the offseason, is earning $1.725MM this year in his first season of arbitration eligibility.

Before hitting the shelf, Barraclough had struggled to a 6.39 ERA in 25 1/3 innings. Despite a solid 30:12 K/BB ratio, the righty reliever was touched for seven long balls. Statcast has in the past credited Barraclough with maintaining low hard-hit rates, helping to offset his typically hefty walk numbers. But opposing hitters have jumped him for 43.6% hard contact this year as he has continued to shed fastball velocity (from an early-career peak of 96.6 mph down to 93.7 mph in 2019).

The Nats may well need to call upon Barraclough again later in the season, but they’ll first see if they can find more consistency from other arms. The D.C. relief unit still lacks much in the way of stability, though it is no longer performing at historically awful rates after an unbelievably poor start to the year.

7 Top Prospects Who Could Spur Their Teams Down The Stretch

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Every now and again, a young player arrives in the majors relatively late in the season and immediately functions as a key cog for a contender. Think Corey Seager in 2015. It takes a combination of talent, readiness, and opportunity all coming together. We’ll be focused in no small part on that last prong here; it’s always possible that injuries will create new openings, but our attention will fall on already foreseeable chances at playing time.

Here are a few top prospects who have yet to make their MLB debuts but could be positioned to make a splash for possible contenders in the second half:

Jo Adell, OF, Angels: If the Halos are to make a charge — into the Wild Card picture, if not that of the division — they’ll need everything they can get. While Brian Goodwin has been a nice surprise, he’s best suited to functioning as a fourth outfielder. Overcoming adversity for a surprise run may require a bold bet on Adell’s talent; after a late start to the year, he has shattered Double-A pitching.

MacKenzie Gore, LHP, Padres: Ditto the Friars, who have shown zero hesitation to promote top young hurlers but still haven’t settled on a sustainable rotation mix. There isn’t much reason for the San Diego org to go wild with rental additions at the deadline, but it could remain in the Wild Card hunt and would have less to lose by rolling the dice on its own prospect assets. Gore is the most talented of all the team’s pre-MLB hurlers. He only just earned a promotion to the Double-A level after mowing down High-A batters, so bringing the 20-year-old to the show would be rather aggressive, but it could be intriguing to consider the possibility depending upon how things shake out (for both Gore and the team) over the next month or so.

Ian Anderson, RHP, Braves: The Atlanta organization has likewise cycled through a whole host of young arms of late, with the sort of mixed results you’d expect. Anderson has yet to get the call but has made a compelling case. He’s now through 86 2/3 innings of 2.91 ERA ball at Double-A — the same level he finished the ’18 season — with 11.7 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9. Having reached 119 1/3 total frames last year, Anderson ought to have some availability left in the tank. The Braves could conceivably call upon him as a rotation piece, late-inning reliever, or multi-inning flex hurler.

Alec Bohm, 3B, Phillies: It’s a parade of former third overall picks! Bohm, who followed Gore (’17) and Anderson (’16) in that draft slot, only recently made it to the Double-A level. But he was selected as an accomplished collegiate player and is nearly 23 years of age. Bohm has exhibited exceptional plate discipline and good power this year. Meanwhile, the Phils have sunk in the standings as third bagger Maikel Franco has faded at the plate.

A.J. Puk, LHP, Athletics: We’ve long known of this possibility. Puk, a long-hyped southpaw, is coming back from Tommy John surgery just in time to give another boost to the streaking A’s. Unfortunately, he has been walk-prone in his rehab work and may need some more polishing before making his MLB debut. But the upside here is too tantalizing to ignore, even if it could come initially in relief work. We’re not forgetting about two other high-end A’s prospects — Jesus Luzardo and Sean Murphy — but both are still working through injury issues.

Nico Hoerner, 2B, Cubs: As with Bohm, Hoerner is a quick-moving 2018 first-rounder. While he was ahead of his classmate to begin the year, opening at the penultimate level of the minors, Hoerner was sidelined by a wrist injury that he returned from only recently. But it’s not hard to imagine him jumping onto the MLB radar in the relatively near future. Through 95 plate appearances this season at Double-A, Hoerner carries a .305/.371/.486 slash line. Meanwhile, at the major-league level, the Cubs have featured an underperforming carousel of players at Hoerner’s position.

Dustin May, RHP, Dodgers: While Gavin Lux seems ready for an impact, there just isn’t much immediate opportunity in a loaded Los Angeles infield mix. Instead, we’re featuring May, a 21-year-old hurler who could make an impact in any number of ways on the Dodgers pitching staff. Having already twice topped 130 innings in prior seasons, May could be asked to work as a starter. It’s more likely, perhaps, that the L.A. club would consider him as yet another flex piece. May was just bumped up to Triple-A after throwing 79 1/3 innings of 3.74 ERA ball, with 9.8 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9, for Double-A Tulsa.

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