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Archives for July 2019

All-Star Break Opt-Out Updates

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The opt-out clause is now a permanent fixture in the large-contract toolkit. Not every deal has one, but they’re a common mechanism to allow players and teams to tweak otherwise rigid structures to find accord. Fortunately for hot stove watchers, opt-out clauses — really, glorified player options — create added layers of complexity and intrigue for significant players.

Let’s check in on the opt-out decisions forthcoming at the end of the 2019 season:

Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers: Three years, $43MM: Andrus is in an interesting spot as he nears his 31st birthday. He’s posting league-average numbers at the plate thus far in 2019 with a blend of a high batting average, scant walk rate, and decent power. Statcast indicates he has overperformed a bit, which was also the assessment based upon the batted-ball data in his successful 2016 and 2017 campaigns. (The opposite was true last year, a down season at the plate.) There’s a split on the defensive side between UZR (which grades Andrus as excellent) and DRS (the opposite); given his long history, it seems fair to say Andrus is still plenty capable of handling short. He’s ticking up on the basepaths, having already swiped 19 bags after taking just five last year. It’s still possible to imagine this situation going one way or the other, depending upon how Andrus finishes out the year and what his personal preferences are. On balance, it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll have much greater earning power than the existing contract — particularly since he’d assuredly be dragging draft compensation if he opts out (which would make it an easy choice for the Rangers to issue him a qualifying offer).

Jake Arrieta, RHP, Phillies: One year, $20MM (unless Phillies exercise two-year, $40MM option for 2021-22): Unless Arrieta completely flips the script hard down the stretch, there’s almost no way it’ll make sense on paper for him to opt out. His useful but uninspiring 2018 effort has given way to a messy 2019 campaign, with the problem areas of the past few seasons coming fully to roost. Arrieta is through 108 innings in 18 starts, so he remains a dependable rotation piece, but he’s coughing up 4.67 earned per nine with just 7.1 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9. While he is again drawing grounders on over half the balls put in play against him, he’s also allowing dingers on one in five flies. At 33 years of age, Arrieta seems to be on the career arc of James Shields moreso than that of Zack Greinke.

Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Yankees: Two years, $30MM: We initially missed this one when we rounded up the year’s opt-out opportunities. That stings doubly since Chapman arguably has the best case for bailing on the rest of his contract. 32 next February, the southpaw remains a force at the back of the Yanks’ bullpen. Through 34 2/3 innings this year, Chapman carries a 1.82 ERA with 13.0 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. While many other pitchers are seeing their dinger rates rise, he has allowed only a single ball to leave the yard. His swinging-strike rate is down to a personal-low of 12.3%, and Chapman is averaging only 98.2 mph with his average four-seam fastball — though he’s still over 100 with a sinker that he has utilized more than ever. There’s some market competition from excellent lefty Will Smith, and Chapman can be issued a qualifying offer by the Yankees, but there’s plenty of reason to think Chapman would be hotly pursued in free agency.

Yu Darvish, RHP, Cubs: Four years, $81MM: Darvish is consistently making starts, which is more than could be said last year, but the Cubs’ Arrieta replacement has not been anywhere close to good enough to spurn those remaining earnings. As he closes in on his 33rd birthday, Darvish is giving up free passes (4.5 BB/9) and long flies (1.86 per nine, 25.3% HR/FB) by the bucketful. There are some positive signs that leave the door open for a turnaround — his 93.9 mph average fastball and 12.2% swinging-strike rate sit right at his career means — but they aren’t going to change the contractual outcome here.

Jason Heyward, OF, Cubs: Four years, $86MM (assuming he makes 550 PAs): Heyward still hasn’t reached his 30th birthday and is in the midst of a bit of a renaissance at the plate. After two brutal campaigns, he crawled back to league-average production in 2018. Now, he’s slashing .266/.355/.457 (110 wRC+) with 14 home runs and a career-high 12.0% walk rate through 332 plate appearances in 2019. We haven’t seen this kind of pop from Heyward since way back in 2013. There are some limits to the good vibes, however. Heyward continues to grade well defensively in right field, but metrics have panned his work in center. And he has been abysmal against left-handed pitching, cobbling together a .188/.246/.281 slash without the platoon advantage. That profile isn’t going to command a payday that comes close to what Heyward already has in hand.

Kenley Jansen, RHP, Dodgers: Two years, $38MM: Much like teammate Clayton Kershaw, Jansen is now merely excellent, rather than exceptional. The veteran closer looks much the same this year as he did last, with still sparkling K/BB numbers (11.8 K/9 vs. 1.7 BB/9) but a vulnerability to the long ball that did not exist at his peak. Over his past 108 1/3 innings, dating to the start of the ’18 campaign, Jansen has allowed more than 1.5 dingers per nine with a HR/FB rate of greater than 15 percent. Though his swinging-strike rate has trended back up this year (to 16.0%, just over his career average but below his ceiling), his average fastball velocity has continued its inevitable descent (now to 92.0 mph). Jansen will turn 32 at the very end of the season. There’s still a possibility that he could secure a slightly larger overall contract on the open market if he finishes strong, particularly since Jansen can’t be hung with a qualifying offer. Wade Davis got $52MM over three years at the same point on the age spectrum. But that possibility may not be worth the risk, particularly after Craig Kimbrel fell shy of expectations in free agency.

J.D. Martinez, DH/OF, Red Sox: Three years, $62.5MM: This one could be interesting, particularly given that several of the most productive potential free agents decided to avoid the market by inking extensions. Martinez is going to have a fairly limited potential pool of suitors, which will impact the decisionmaking. He’s also a candidate to receive a qualifying offer, which won’t help. It doesn’t sound as if he much of an idea yet whether he’ll trigger the opt out. The second-half performance will be key here. Martinez has now fallen off of the phenomenal levels of offensive production he carried in the prior two seasons. Through 357 plate appearances, he owns an impressive (but mortal) .304/.376/.541 batting line with 18 home runs. Statcast has some mixed news: Martinez is exhibiting clear declines in hard contact but still seems like a candidate for positive regression (.383 wOBA vs. .416 xwOBA). Edwin Encarnacion took down $20MM annually over a three-year term entering his age-34 season, so there’s a realistic possibility that Martinez (32 in August) could beat the earnings he already has secured.

Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals: Four years, $100MM: As he nears his 31st birthday, Strasburg continues to turn in excellent work on the mound. He has underperformed his peripherals again in 2019, but has been in good health (knock on wood) with 116 1/3 frames over 18 starts. Stras carries a 3.64 ERA with 10.7 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9 and a strong 52.4% groundball rate. He’s sporting career-best marks in swinging-strike rate (14.2%) and chase rate (38.6%) despite losing a tick on his average four-seamer, so the stuff is still plenty crisp. The opt-out chance — there’s another next winter as well — could well prove tantalizing so long as Strasburg keeps up his present pace and stays healthy down the stretch. It’s important to bear in mind that the contract’s deferrals reduce its present-day value. Still, it’s a big number to top in free agency. And while the upcoming class was severely weakened by pre-season extensions, it does feature some strong rotation competition — particularly the more youthful Gerrit Cole, but also including Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Rick Porcello, Kyle Gibson, and Cole Hamels.

Manfred On Ball, DH, Free Agency, Expansion, Rays

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If you ask Astros ace Justin Verlander, Major League Baseball has become a home-run happy farce. Verlander, who started the All-Star Game for the American League on Tuesday, issued acerbic comments on the direction of the game Monday, saying (via Jeff Passan of ESPN): “Major League Baseball’s turning this game into a joke. They own Rawlings, and you’ve got Manfred up here saying it might be the way they center the pill. They own the [expletive] company. If any other $40 billion company bought out a $400 million company and the product changed dramatically, it’s not a guess as to what happened.”

Sour grapes from someone who’s already close to allowing a career-high home run total for a season? It doesn’t seem that way. There is growing skepticism – not just from Verlander – about the integrity of the baseball MLB is using, and understandably so. Big leaguers are on pace to hit 6,600-plus home runs, which would crush the record of 6,105 set in 2017, Tyler Kepner of the New York Times notes. Like Verlander, MLBPA executive director Tony Clark is under the impression something is up. So are starters Max Scherzer, Charlie Morton, Jake Odorizzi, Marcus Stroman and CC Sabathia, as Kepner and Passan detail in their pieces.

“If there’s something that’s potentially altering that, just come out and say it,” Odorizzi said. “I think, as players, we’ve gotten to the point now where we’ve accepted it.”

However, according to commissioner Rob Manfred, there isn’t anything nefarious happening. Rather, the league “has done nothing, given no direction, for an alteration in the baseball.” Manfred added MLB doesn’t want more home runs – owners have “no desire” for an increase, he insisted Tuesday – so juicing the baseball wouldn’t make sense from MLB’s perspective.

At the same time, Manfred did admit Monday the ball has changed. He told ESPN’s Golic and Wingo (via Passan): “”Our scientists that have been now studying the baseball more regularly have told us that this year the baseball has a little less drag. It doesn’t need to change very much in order to produce meaningful change in terms of the way the game is played on the field. We are trying to understand exactly why that happened and build out a manufacturing process that gives us a little more control over what’s going on. But you have to remember that our baseball is a handmade product and there’s gonna be variation year to year.”

Whether Manfred’s telling the truth in regards to the baseball is up for debate. What’s clear is that the game won’t be injecting more offense by implementing a universal designated hitter in the imminent future. Manfred remarked Tuesday (via Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) that a DH in the National League is not “inevitable,” indicating it won’t come up as a possibility until after the collective bargaining agreement runs out in 2021.

Free agency, like the DH, will be an important discussion point during talks on the next CBA. Clark conveyed a desire this week to restore “meaningful free agency.” Manfred seems happy with the current system, though, saying baseball has the “freest free agency in any sport” – one devoid of a salary cap, franchise tags and max contracts. He expressed satisfaction that MLB “has produced more $100 million guaranteed contracts than the rest of professional sports combined.” While Manfred did indicate a willingness to negotiate with the union as regards free agency, the league’s “economic system has to preserve the competitiveness of those small-market clubs. That is always our overriding goal.”

Concerning the markets MLB plans to occupy going forward, Manfred put the kibosh on any short-term expansion possibilities, stating, “There’s no way we’re biting into expansion until we get Tampa and Oakland (which also needs a new stadium) resolved one way or the other.” 

Tampa Bay, however, is exploring becoming a two-city franchise – an idea the league has thrown its support behind. In Manfred’s estimation, the Rays’ proposed Tampa Bay-Montreal team-sharing setup would present “an opportunity to preserve baseball in Tampa Bay. And I’m not prepared to say one way or the other what’s going to happen if that effort turns out to be unsuccessful.”

Pitcher Notes: Stroman, Felix, Gore, Whitley

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Blue Jays right-hander and prime trade chip Marcus Stroman has been dealing with a left pectoral issue since June 29, but he expects to return to the mound Sunday, Scott Mitchell of TSN tweets. Stroman’s set to take the ball at Yankee Stadium against a team that has shown interest in acquiring him prior to the July 31 deadline. Whether it’s New York or another club that reels in the 28-year-old, expectations are he won’t be a member of Toronto’s roster once the calendar reaches August. That isn’t lost on Stroman. Regarding the Blue Jays, Stroman told Mitchell, “They haven’t had me in their plans for the future, and I’ve come to terms with it.”

Here’s more on a few other notable hurlers…

  • Shoulder and lat injuries have kept Mariners right-hander Felix Hernandez from taking a major league mound since May 11. It’s now likely Hernandez won’t rejoin Seattle’s staff until at least the end of July, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports. Hernandez may have even thrown his last pitch as a Mariner should more setbacks occur, per Divish. That would make for a sad ending in Seattle for the 33-year-old Hernandez, a free agent after the season. A career-long Mariner who debuted in 2005, King Felix enjoyed a long run as one of the majors’ premier aces, but the six-time All-Star and 2010 AL Cy Young winner is now in the throes of a sharp decline. Despite solid strikeout, walk and groundball rates (7.91 K/9, 1.86 BB/9, 50.0 GB%), Hernandez slumped to a 6.52 ERA/5.40 FIP in eight starts and 38 2/3 innings this season before going on the injured list.
  • Elite Padres pitching prospect MacKenzie Gore is inching closer to a major league promotion. The Padres promoted the 20-year-old left-hander from High-A ball to the Double-A level Tuesday, Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune relays. Gore, the third overall pick in the 2017 draft, ranks as a top 10 prospect according to Baseball America (No. 3), MLB.com (No. 3), ESPN’s Keith Law (No. 7) and FanGraphs (No. 10). After injuries limited Gore to 60 2/3 innings last season, he jumped out to a magnificent 1.02 ERA with 12.48 K/9 and 2.27 BB/9 in 79 1/3 High-A innings this year to earn a promotion.
  • Unlike Gore, fellow high-end pitching prospect Forrest Whitley has failed to impress in 2019, Josh Norris of Baseball America observes. In addition to posting horrific numbers and battling injuries with the Astros’ Triple-A affiliate this season, Whitley has shown serious immaturity and underwhelming stuff on the mound, evaluators have told Norris. The 21-year-old did enter the season as the youngest player in the Pacific Coast League, though, Norris points out.

Noah Syndergaard Rumors: Brewers, Astros

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A trade involving Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard doesn’t look imminent – it may not even be likely – but he is garnering interest from teams in need of starting pitching, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports. Although the Mets are not soliciting offers for Syndergaard, the Brewers are “monitoring” him and teammate Zack Wheeler (previously reported), according to Morosi. Meanwhile, Syndergaard has “intrigued” some members of the Astros organzation.

The Mets are 40-50 and seemingly on track to deal veterans by the July 31 trade deadline, yet this may not be the ideal time to sell Syndergaard. While he produced dominant results when healthy from 2015-18, Syndergaard hasn’t been nearly as great this season. So far in 2019, the 26-year-old has registered a career-worst ERA (4.68), FIP (3.98), xFIP (4.22), strikeout rate (8.6 K/9) and swinging-strike percentage (11.9) over 105 2/3 innings.

Syndergaard, to his credit, certainly hasn’t posted bad numbers this season; he also continues to fire heat in the 98 mph range. Beyond that, Syndergaard has his pre-2019 track record working in his favor – not to mention a team-friendly contract that would likely help lead to major interest from playoff hopefuls and non-contenders alike. Syndergaard is on a $6MM salary this year and comes with another two seasons of arbitration control.

The Mets entertained trading Syndergaard last winter, but rookie general manager Brodie Van Wagenen – the hurler’s ex-agent – kept him in hopes of contending this year. The offseason moves Van Wagenen did make haven’t panned out to this point, though, which has put some extra pressure on him to “win” a potential Syndergaard trade, Morosi hears. Regardless, it would take a sizable return – likely a package including a major league-ready starter, per Morosi – for the struggling club to say goodbye to Thor this month.

Gerrit Cole Discusses Potential Trip To Free Agency

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Astros right-hander Gerrit Cole is on a collision course with an enormous payday in the next few months. Arguably the most valuable impending free agent in baseball, the three-time All-Star expressed excitement Tuesday in regards to his potential trip to the open market, per Mark Berman of Fox 26 (video links).

“I’m looking forward to it,” said Cole. “I know what my right is as a player. Once I get six years of service time, my right is to be able to say yes or no to a place I want to play. So I’m excited to be able to exercise that right.”

That may make it sound as if Cole is ready to exit the Astros, but that isn’t necessarily the case. Houston, according to Cole, “checks a lot of the boxes. I expect them to be there when push comes to shove. I wouldn’t mind playing there for a lot longer.”

The feeling’s likely mutual for the Astros, with whom Cole has been brilliant since they acquired him from the Pirates entering the 2018 campaign. While Cole had plenty of high moments as a Pirate, he endured multiple seasons in Pittsburgh in which he battled injuries and didn’t prevent runs at ace-level rates. The Houston version has been durable and elite, though.

Not only is the hard-throwing Cole on pace for his second straight 200-inning season with the Astros, but he has a realistic chance to surpass the 300-strikeout mark. Cole leads the majors with a stunning 13.11 K/9, has walked just 2.31 hitters per nine and has logged a 3.09 ERA/3.00 FIP across 116 2/3 innings. Overall as an Astro, he owns a 2.95 ERA/2.81 FIP with 12.66 K/9 and 2.67 BB/9 through 317 frames. His 9.4 fWAR dating back to 2018 paces all American League starters and ranks third in the game, trailing only supreme aces Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom.

Scherzer’s a few offseasons removed from signing a seven-year, $210MM contract with the Nationals in free agency. Scott Boras, who also represents Cole, helped Scherzer secure that deal. Along with David Price and Zack Greinke, Scherzer is one of three pitchers to reel in $200MM-plus pacts to this point. The soon-to-be 29-year-old Cole, with Boras’ help, could angle to become the fourth by next season.

KBO’s LG Twins Sign Carlos Peguero, Place Tommy Joseph On Waivers

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The LG Twins of the Korea Baseball Organization have made a pair of moves involving former major leaguers, Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net reports. The club signed outfielder Carlos Peguero and placed first baseman Tommy Joseph on waivers.

Playing in Asia isn’t foreign to the 32-year-old Peguero, though he is new to Korean ball. Peguero spent 2016-18 with the Rakuten Golden Eagles of Nippon Professional Baseball in Japan. Before that, he played parts of 2011-15 in the majors and struggled to a .194/.263/.384 line in a combined 319 plate appearances with the Mariners, Royals, Red Sox and Rangers.

Joseph’s also an ex-Ranger, having joined the team via waivers from the Phillies going into the 2018 season. Joseph ended up spending the entire season in the minors, though, which was unexpected after he was a regular for the Phillies over the previous two years. The right-handed slugger accumulated 880 trips to the plate during those seasons and piled up 43 home runs, but his overall production (.247/.297/.460 – good for a 97 wRC+) didn’t convince the Phillies to retain him, nor did it lead to a chance in Texas.

Unable to find another big league opportunity last offseason, the 27-year-old Joseph signed in Korea for $1MM. While Joseph looked like a candidate to rake in the hitter-friendly KBO, his OPS (.758) over 217 PA has fallen more than 100 points short of the league average (.866) for foreign players.

Rick Ankiel Likely To End Comeback Attempt

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Former major league pitcher/outfielder Rick Ankiel is nearing “decision time” regarding his potential comeback, agent Scott Boras told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. It’s unlikely the soon-to-be 40-year-old Ankiel will continue his bid to return to the game, though, Goold writes.

Ankiel, who last played in the majors in 2013, first declared his intention to come back last August. Although Ankiel hasn’t pitched in the bigs since 2004, he was hoping to return as a southpaw reliever. However, Ankiel hasn’t bounced back from the surgery he underwent in November to repair his damaged left ulnar collateral ligament, per Goold, who hears that his recovery has “plateaued.”

Had Ankiel been healthy, it seems he would have been given a realistic chance to vie for a spot with the Cardinals – who originally chose him in the second round of the 1997 draft. According to Goold, the Cardinals checked on Ankiel sometime in the past month to see if he was in shape to sign a minor league contract, but president of baseball operations John Mozeliak didn’t hear back.

Ankiel shined at times as both a pitcher and a hitter in St. Louis. In 2000, his best season as a hurler, Ankiel notched a 3.50 ERA with 3.4 fWAR and 9.98 K/9 against 4.63 BB/9 over 175 innings. A lack of control became a major problem for Ankiel the year after, however, and an extreme case of the yips forced him to transition from the mound to the outfield.

Ankiel didn’t garner a large number of at-bats in a season until 2007, the beginning of a two-year stretch in which he slashed .270/.334/.515 (120 wRC+) with 36 home runs and 3.1 fWAR in 653 plate appearances. Ankiel went on to appear in the majors in each of the next five seasons, also spending time with the Royals, Braves, Nationals, Astros and Mets, but experienced limited success with those clubs.

Injuries Limiting Khris Davis’ Power

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Khris Davis has been a remarkably consistent piece of the Athletics’ offense since the team acquired him from the Brewers just a couple months before the 2016 season began. A .247 hitter in his final season with the Brewers, Davis incredibly posted that same average from 2016-18 in Oakland. At the same time, the man known as Khrush slammed 133 home runs – at least 42 in each season – while recording a 128 wRC+ during that three-year, 1,916-plate appearance span.

Durability played an important role in Davis’ counting stats during his first three years as an Athletic. He appeared in no fewer than 150 games in any of those seasons, though hip, oblique and left hand problems have dogged Davis this year, limiting him to 74 of a possible 91 contests. It hasn’t been an ideal outcome for low-budget Oakland, which signed the fan and organizational favorite to a two-year, $33.5MM contract extension entering 2019. Including Davis’ $16.5MM salary this season, he’s under wraps through 2021 for $50MM. That’s a lot for the A’s, who – despite being in the thick of the playoff race for the second straight year – haven’t gotten the optimal version of Davis.

Through 302 plate appearances this season, the 31-year-old Davis has batted a career-worst .236/.305/.433 with a personal-low .196 ISO that sits 91 points below his 2016-18 mark. While Davis does have 16 homers, he’s easily on pace for his fewest in a season as an Athletic, and he hasn’t hit one since June 18. Moreover, his wRC+ (94) comes in 16 points below the league average for a designated hitter.

This past weekend, Davis explained to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that the pain in his hand has hampered his power, saying: “It’s just not as strong as it should be. I’ve been choking up a little bit, and that’s been helping a little, but not a lot of power guys choke up.”

Indeed, although a career-high swing percentage (52.7) has led to Davis’ greatest contact rate as an Athletic (70 percent), he’s not denting the ball to the extent he did in prior years. Davis’ average exit velocity has decreased from 92.5 mph to 89.5 since last season, according to Statcast, while his launch angle has plummeted from 18.1 to 12.4. He has also hit 11.7 percent fewer fly balls since then, which helps explain why he’s so far from the major league-leading 48 homers he amassed a season ago.

Davis’ MLB-best HR total in 2018 played a key part in a .365 weighted on-base average/.378 expected wOBA, but those numbers have sunk to .313/.331 this year. His xwOBA ranks in the league’s 48th percentile, while his expected batting average (35th), hard-hit rate (52nd) and expected slugging percentage (65th and down 106 points from 2018) also aren’t befitting of a top-rate slugger. Here’s an interesting bit of trivia, though: Davis’ expected average is – you guessed it – .247.

The right-handed Davis has typically handled both same-handed and lefty pitchers, though not having the platoon advantage has kneecapped him this year. He’s hitting an unimposing .226/.297/.392 (83 wRC+) against righties thus far. Per FanGraphs, Davis destroyed pitches in the middle of the zone against RHPs just a season ago, but his success in that portion of the plate (and in other areas) versus righties has dwindled significantly in 2019.

With two-plus months left in the season, Davis has time to reverse his fortunes this year and help Oakland to the playoffs. Owing in some part to injuries, though, one of the game’s fiercest sluggers has gone backward in a season where power has run rampant. Considering the hefty investment small-budget Oakland made in Davis coming into the season, it’s in obvious need of a turnaround from the typically elite HR hitter going forward.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Realmuto Open To Long-Term Deal With Phillies

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J.T. Realmuto was clear toward the end of his time with the Marlins that he wasn’t interested in signing an extension with Miami, but the All-Star catcher has taken a different tone with his new organization after just a few months. As Matt Breen of Philly.com reports, Realmuto wasn’t shy during this week’s All-Star festivities about expressing his interest in signing a long-term deal with the Phillies.

“Everything I’ve experienced in Philadelphia has been awesome, so I wouldn’t be opposed to spending the rest of my career there,” Realmuto told the media. It doesn’t sound as though there’d be any particular deadline on talks, either, as Realmuto indicated he’d be open to talks “whether it be tomorrow or in the off-season or next July.”

While plenty has gone wrong for the Phillies in 2019, their acquisition of Realmuto has proven to be a terrific move. His offense is down from last year in Miami (despite a move to a more hitter-friendly park), but his .273/.328/.438 slash line translates to roughly league average for a hitter, per OPS+ and wRC+. Relative to other catchers throughout the league, that’s considerably above-average. And defensively, Realmuto has taken his already strong game to a whole new level.

Realmuto leads the Majors with an incredible 49 percent caught-stealing rate, having thrown out 26 of the 53 players who’ve been bold enough to attempt a steal. His framing marks, once again, are comfortably above the league average, and Baseball Prospectus credits Realmuto as the game’s second-best pitch-blocker (behind Cleveland’s Roberto Perez). Realmuto is tied with Perez for second among all MLB catcher with 10 Defensive Runs Saved, and Baseball Prospectus rates only San Diego’s Austin Hedges as a superior defender behind the dish.

As can be seen in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker, there haven’t been many catchers with four-plus years of service to ink long-term deals in recent seasons. Both Francisco Cervelli (three years, $31MM when he had 5+ years) and Salvador Perez (five years, $52.5MM as a 4+ player) did so in 2016, while Miguel Montero (five years, $60MM as a 5+ player) did so back in 2012. Montero’s deal is dated, though, while Cervelli wasn’t nearly as established a hitter and Perez was signing a make-good deal after initially inking an astronomically club-friendly extension as a pre-arb player. (Mammoth extensions signed by Joe Mauer and Buster Posey were outliers for prime-aged superstars coming off MVP seasons.) From an annual value standpoint, Yadier Molina is earning $20MM per year on a three-year pact that he signed when he was four years older than Realmuto would be in free agency. Yasmani Grandal secured an $18.25MM salary this past winter.

In a sense, a Realmuto extension could help to set some form of precedent for this type of player. He’s already earning $5.9MM in his second season of arbitration and could see that sum pushed to $10MM or more next year even without an extension. He’s on track to reach free agency in advance of his age-30 season, which would set him up nicely for a contract of four years in length. The Mets, as a point of comparison, were willing to pay a reported $60MM for Grandal at the same age, although that deal obviously never came together.

From a team vantage point, the Phillies could easily fit a long-term deal for Realmuto onto the books. Philadelphia opened the current season with a payroll in excess of $161MM (and has pushed $180MM in the past); the organization currently has just under $90MM on the books for Realmuto’s first would-be free agent season in 2021, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez.

Tyler Thornburg Rejects Minor League Assignment

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Right-hander Tyler Thornburg has refused an optional to Triple-A Pawtucket with the Red Sox and is “trending toward being released” by the organization, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports (via Twitter). The Red Sox recalled Thornburg’s rehab assignment yesterday, triggering a 48-hour window to either bring him to the big leagues or option him to the minors. As a player with more than five years of MLB service, however, Thornburg has the right to reject a minor league assignment.

Thornburg, 30, has been on the shelf since late May due to a hip impingement. He’s pitched 18 2/3 innings out of the Boston ’pen this year, but despite picking up 22 strikeouts in that time, he’s scuffled to a 7.71 ERA thanks to the 10 walks and four homers he’s allowed.

Injuries have decimated Thornburg’s tenure with the Red Sox since Boston acquired him from the Brewers in the December 2016 trade that sent Travis Shaw to Milwaukee. At the time, Thornburg was coming off an excellent season, having given the Brewers 67 innings of 2.15 ERA ball with a gaudy 90-to-25 K/BB ratio. Controllable for another three seasons, Thornburg looked like a potential long-term late-inning option in the Boston relief corps.

Instead, he missed the entire 2017 season due to shoulder troubles that eventually culminated in surgery to alleviate the dreaded thoracic outlet syndrome. TOS surgery has proven considerably more problematic for pitchers than Tommy John surgery in recent years, and like many others before him, Thornburg has struggled in the wake of that procedure. He’s pitched just 42 2/3 innings with the Red Sox in total, working to a 6.54 ERA while yielding an average of 2.1 homers per nine innings pitched. Thornburg’s velocity actually bounced back a bit this season, albeit not quite to his pre-surgery levels (93.7 mph vs. 94.2 mph).

Assuming Thornburg does ultimately end up being cut loose, he’ll become a free agent who can sign with any club. Given the number of teams in search of bullpen help throughout the league, he should latch on elsewhere as he looks to reestablish himself as a viable bullpen piece.

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