As we explored here several months ago, Ian Kennedy has gone from a starter on an albatross contract to a highly intriguing reliever this season, making him a fairly logical trade candidate for the 39-65 Royals. Kansas City is indeed getting interest in not only Kennedy but also left-hander Danny Duffy, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required). Both players are on sizable contracts, however, and Rosenthal adds that Kansas City is “not inclined” to make a deal if it means paying down either veteran’s deal to a more palatable rate. The Royals “value [Kennedy and Duffy] as place-holders until their younger pitchers develop,” per the report.
With regard to Duffy, that’s a rather logical stance to take. He’s a homegrown player who was extended to much fanfare in Kansas City, and while the $15-16MM he’s being paid on an annual basis outstrips his recent production, it’s not an egregious overpay. Signed through the 2021 season, Duffy has at least been a serviceable arm. He owns a 4.32 ERA in 89 1/3 innings and is averaging 8.0 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 while still carrying the upside of pitching at a higher level.
Trading Duffy, even with an acquiring team taking on all of his money (which is highly unlikely) would be selling low. The lefty was the Royals’ best starter in 2016-17, tossing a combined 326 innings of 3.54 ERA ball with 8.8 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and 1.1 HR/9. It’s possible that with a strong finish to the 2019 season and/or a strong first half in 2020, Duffy’s value could increase. Paying down his contract and seeing his value increase in the future would be a bitter pill to swallow — particularly because the present-day return in a theoretical trade would be relatively modest.
As pertains to Kennedy, though, it’s a somewhat befuddling mindset. He’s four years older than Duffy, only signed through the end of the 2020 season (at annual rates of $16.5MM) and is pitching more effectively than he has at any point in his Royals tenure. Kennedy is currently sporting a 3.40 ERA, but he’s also recorded a 2.16 FIP and a 3.17 SIERA mark. The right-hander is averaging 11.1 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 with a career-high 45.5 percent ground-ball rate. Suddenly, in a relief role, Kennedy is missing bats, limiting walks and home runs, and generating grounders all at career-best rates. His value could well be at its apex, and a once-untradeable pitcher now looks like a player who could be moved and return an intriguing prospect or two if the Royals pay him down to market value (or even lower).
Were Kennedy a free agent this offseason, it’s easy to see him commanding a solid salary on a one-year deal or perhaps even a two-year pact. He’s owed $22.4MM from this writing through the end of the 2020 season, and while that’s more than he’d earn in free agency, it’s not outlandish to think he could earn himself $6-7MM annually on the open market. Paying him down to that rate, or even a bit further, could net some minor leaguers to further the club’s rebuild while also saving enough cash to sign a different “placeholder” (or two) in free agency.
If the Royals are eyeing contention in 2020, hats off to them for making an effort in a weak division at a time when so many other clubs are insistent on lengthy rebuilds that inherently come with diminishing returns. (The more clubs that tank, the less effective the benefits of tanking become.) But even if that’s the case, it’s hard to see how retaining Kennedy at $16.5MM for next season meshes with that plan. If the alternative is adding a quasi-interesting prospect or two and saving some money that could be reinvested in the 2020 roster, the Royals should be willing to sell Kennedy at peak value.
while I somewhat agree on Kennedy, the pen is awful and simply getting rid of guys (especially character guys) isnt always a great idea. You want to send a message to your players you will try and compete each yeàr (even of it looks bleak). I can’t imagine any return they get for Kennedy would make Whit or Salvy think “we are in a better position to make the playoffs in 2020 and 2021 because of this”
They arent in a position to compete currently with the roster they have in 2020 or 2021…..
Trading duffy kennedy and anyone really is the right move.
Not every team wants to follow the Padres model of losing for 20 years and then maybe collecting enough young players to win for a year or two before starting over again.
Not every team wants to follow the Padres model of losing for 20 years and then maybe collecting enough young players to win for a year or two before starting over again.
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That’s not really a model. It’s a false dichotomy. The idea is to choose to be a little worse for a couple of years, in order to be better for a couple of years.
I think the model you want to refer to is like KC, Cubs, Houston, TB. The choice then becomes, do you want to be a consistent .475 team, or do you want to alternated between .375 and .575?
Lol. The Royals aren’t following the Padres model. They’re just also not trading most of their decent players away. They’re as bad as the padres ever were with no change to that coming anytime soon.
Unless you want to start arguing that Ian Kennedy and Danny Duffy are going to be part of the next good Royals team? A team this bad should be selling any ST asset they have.
Joe your point about being a .575 or .475 team doesn’t even fit the Royals. They already are a .375 team with the quality big leaguers they have back. If this were the Mets that might be the fair trade off but for the Royals the question is even simpler. Do you want to be .375 with your tradeable assets and not bolster your farm or do you want to have a .370 winning percentage and acquire some talent that might actually help you crawl out of this mess?
The royals basically did that except for 2014 and 2015
And if your minor league prospects are not ready what then? Rush them up and risk ruining them?
Somebody has to pitch Duffy’s innings. Somebody has to close. The Royals (any team for that matter) has to put a product on the field. Placeholders do have value.
Every player dreams and prepared for the major leagues through the minors except for the very few who went straight to the big leagues. To say that a team risks “ruining them” by any opportunities they have earned is a total BS narrative concocted by the media. If they perform in AAA they are either ready or they aren’t. You will never know if you don’t give them a chance.
if they performed up to par in AAA they would already be up
Duffy’s innings could go to anyone. Trust me. The Orioles have done it this year with guys like Asher Wojciechowski and Gabriel Ynoa. You can find any scrub to eat innings without harming your prospects. If any team would give up value for Duffy. If there’s no real value coming back; I agree there is no point
There are always replacement level free agents/old MiLB vets that can step in until the end of the year. Should be tanking, anyways to get a better draft pick.
if they aren’t ready to compete for 2+ years, why not move Whit for a haul?
You don’t have the slightest idea about 2021! By then we will have at least 2 of our top minor league starting pitchers starting for us (Kowar and Singer). So you just don’t know what they might look like in 2021.
So you are gunna let your emotions get in the way?
i wonder if they’d be willing to send back a prospect or two in a Kennedy trade then. could be a good investment.
I think the only way they trade Danny is if they are sure they have a good replacement for the rotation . And no, a good replacement is not named Eric Skoglund. When Danny still had Twitter, trade rumors really upset him in winter 2017. He had no desire to play for anyone but the Royals. He just had a good outing the other night.
As for Kennedy, time will tell If anyone would be willing to trade for him, maybe next year in June or July. I was thinking maybe if we trade him, it would be at the winter meetings. I’d be willing to trade him if I knew that the bullpen would be in good hands. I know that if we trade Jake Diekman, we have Richard Lovelady to replace him. uncertainties would come for a closer ( because you still need a guy that can help you win a game, if you’re leading, even in a rebuild. look what happened last year – Despite over 100 losses, the royals still needed a “closer” for 14 games after Herrera was traded, So Peralta, who was just DFAed recently, Came through for 14 games. Though he wasn’t the same pitcher this year….
I’m all willing to trade Kennedy if I know that somebody in AAA will be able to help in the bullpen in 2020 . Hopefully it won’t be somebody from the dumpster.
this is Detroit’s issue. Greene has max value but no one (including Jimenez) is ready to take on the closer role.
What do either of these teams need a cooser for?
Don’t knock the cooser until you’ve tried it.
Coosing?
I’m all willing to trade Kennedy if I know that somebody in AAA will be able to help in the bullpen in 2020 .
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I’m a RS fan, so it is a different model. But does Kennedy make a difference for you? Right now, they are .375. Let’s say, as is, they can play .400 next year. Would trading Kennedy, and becoming a .375 team, make that much difference to you?
The RS had the bug salary dump, followed by a minor reset by trading Miller, and I was 100% in favor of it.
miller was a lefty so instantly more value and a lower contract. unlike with say a mad bum who is a pending fa, the money left on Kennedy’s deal is actually a problem. if you are kc and know this, do you eat money and trade him now or wait, hope he is as good next year and sell when you dont have to take less because of the money left.
KC is sure doing a lot of puffing their chest out so far. You want prospects and a full salary pay down on some decent but not star pitchers? Good luck with that.
They are basically saying we dont have to trade these guys, but if you want them you pay for their contracts. That’s a smart move by the Totals.
I wonder if the Royals would be willing to add a prospect or two as sweetener in a Duffy or Kennedy deal, if they are unwilling to eat dollars? Similar to what the Pirates did when they traded Francisco Liriano to the Jays and added Reese McGuire and Harold Ramirez. At a minimum, that would increase the number of potential partners – at a maximum, they might actually get something of value back.
The Royals did that to move really bad contracts like Moss and Soria. The Royals are not looking to dump salary.
if they aren’t ready to compete they aren’t trading prospects
I have never understood paying down salaries, especially at mid season. The teams trying to acquire the players are in a much more desperate situation than the sellers. If you don’t want to pay Danny Duffy, it’s not like you can go to the July free agent market and find someone comparable for a cheaper price. You may be able to find someone at a better value in the off season, but that doesn’t help you win the World Series this season. In the off season, you have more options, but right now there are not a ton of quality starting pitchers available. The Royals would be smart to hold strong.
The idea is you get better prospects. A team might be offering to C level prospects if they take on all the salary. If KC eats money, they’d turn those prospects into higher upside ones.
JD-If the RS suddenly fell out of it, I would hope they would eat 100% of the salary of every traded player.
It makes much more sense from the fan perspective. If the team (any team) tanks, and the acquiring team absorbs 100% of the salary, in exchange for giving up lesser prospects, then that trade is enriching the owners.
If the selling team absorbs the salary, then the owners are effectively paying $$$ to improve the team’s future.
I would agree with hif if Duffy were playing well. But his SIERA trend is troubling – 3.53 in 2016, then 4.31, 4.75 and 4.82 so far in 2019. I strongly suspect that KC have been marketing him already, and that they are finding no takers at a $15m salary in 2020 and 2021. Bear is not even an innings eater, having never pitched 200 innings in a year in his career and having averaged 153 IP over the last 5 years.
Don’t get me wrong – Duffy still has value, particularly for a non-contender who needs #4-5 starter innings. And it is always possible that he could bloom elsewhere (ask the Jays about Boyd). But I don’t see him of particular value to a contender, and I don’t see a non-contender paying $15m per.
I do not believe Jays fans are sad about losing Matthew Boyd in a trade involving David Price.
Would cubs taking on all of Kennedy’s contract increase chance of getting Merrifield too?
Haven’t you heard? They are poor and don’t have the money for that.
Yeah from 0% to 1% haha just kidding – it might factor in a little bit like how the Mets took back Cano when getting Diaz. But if you truly believe what the Royals are saying about $ not being a motivating factor then it probably means even less than it otherwise would.
no, GMDM thinks Whit Merrifield is Mike Trout
It’s the equivalent of the Detroit GM saying he wanted a young MLB star for Boyd. Won’t happen but might as well set a high starting price and negotiate from there. I say keep Duffy and see if he continues to build value. Trade Kennedy. He’s done a fine job as the closer but relievers can be an inconsistent bunch. See Wily. Or ask the Mets about Diaz. Or the Padres with Yates who went from awful to incredible in one season. Don’t wait for next season.
I think Moore’ (whose not a dumb guy) is just blowing some smoke. It’s less what Kennedy’s making this year that’s the real problem; it’s almost palatable, especially considering the competition you can drum up for a decent veteran reliever. It’s the 2020 number that’s the issue.
I would think if he paid that off, and just saddled the acquiring team with the 8M (or thereabouts) due this year, he might get some decent return. Not a spectacular one, but a decent one.
Something along the lines of a (from Rays, who are in need) Gibault and Josh Lowe. Lowe’s a former #1 draftee whose underperformed his tools, but the tools are still there, and there’s been some gradual improvement along the way.
The royals front office is doing a terrible job. Both their farm system and their ml club are bottom 5 in mlb, there is zero path to success in the next 4 years.
They need to collect talent first who cares if they lose 110 the next two years. They already waited too long with perez and then he got hurt and the same might happen with merryfield too if they wait too long.
Also a structured tank rebuild doesnt take 20 years. The padres lost 20 years because they did not commit to it. The structured full tank jobs in the last years (cubs, astros, white sox) all took only 3-5 years depending on the talent you have.
The royals need to fully commit to tanking and try to acquire as much minor league talent as possible.
The royals front office is doing a terrible job. Both their farm system and their ml club are bottom 5 in mlb, there is zero path to success in the next 4 years.
They need to collect talent first who cares if they lose 110 the next two years. They already waited too long with perez and then he got hurt and the same might happen with merryfield too if they wait too long.
Also a structured tank rebuild doesnt take 20 years. The padres lost 20 years because they did not commit to it. The structured full tank jobs in the last years (cubs, astros, white sox) all took only 3-5 years depending on the talent you have.
The royals need to fully commit to tanking and try to acquire as much minor league talent as possible.
If you think they are that bad think how bad they would be if they gave Hosmer that big over pay contract. Padres are now stuck with a mediocre 1B being payed all star dollars.
The Deal of Hosmer is bad but the Padres have some exciting young players and a boatload of prospects.
The royals have won a WS just a couple years ago so they can afford a few bad years but they need to start taking stepa in the right dorection.
The Deal of Hosmer is bad but the Padres have some exciting young players and a boatload of prospects.
The royals have won a WS just a couple years ago so they can afford a few bad years but they need to start taking stepa in the right dorection.
If only the royals would take back Wil Myers…
Myers for Kennedy straight up.
Steve,
I usually complain so I thought I’d compliment you on a solid article that was a nice read. Your points on a Kennedy I felt were spot on.
Okay then. Ian Kennedy for Jordan Zimmermann? 🙂
why would kc take on more money?
Inciarte package for Duffy package?.
The $35m or so Duffy is owed through 2021 sounds like a problem.
For Ender it is like $17m
The Royals are not inclined to pay down salaries in trades. The Royals are not inclined to trade their most valuable chip in 30-year old Whit Merrifield.
Does anybody actually thinks that the Royals could contend in 2020? How would they do this short of signing every premium free agent on the market this offseason? How often have they even signed one?
If the Royals are inclined to even be in the conversation to contend in the AL they best undertake another rebuild like the one they engineered prior to their two World Series appearances in 2014 and 2015 and then maybe try spending the dollars to retain the young players who could get them to the promised land like they did in the latter year more often.
I agree with all of this and you could say the same thing re: the White Sox. Neither team is contending anytime soon. Move anyone on the wrong side of 30 and accelerate the rebuild. Merrifield should be traded, create a bidding war and get what you can. Same for Abreu.
This is the year to get a big return on Merrifield. The Braves had their time to trade Freeman for an epic haul and held on though and it has paid dividends.
Depends on where KC sees themselves in 2021. Building back up still? Or mostly built?
The difference being that Whit Merrifield is a late bloomer and already 30 years old. Freddie Freeman is still just 29 and a was a whole lot younger if and when the Braves might have contemplated a trade a few years ago.
A rebuilding Atlanta team moving into a new stadium had a lot more incentive to hang on to Freeman then the Royals current situation dictates with Merrifield.
100% spot on, imo. I said the same thing about Baltimore & Toronto. They both held onto their guys way too long. As a result, they received lesser packages. In TO’s case, they got -0- in exchange for one of the top players in the league. And they probably could’ve gotten at least a top-50 + a top-100 if they sold him prior to 2017.
And BA, along with Machado, had a decent BP to sell off (Brach, Givens, O’Day, Britton) plus a couple of mediocre SPs.
And the idea that this is good with fans also doesn’t work out. The only ones that go to Camden Yards are Yankee & Red Sox fans. TO had 3,392k in 2016, and probably won’t have 2M this year. Teams aren’t saving themselves by trying to play .400 instead of .350.
O’Day in his prime would have gotten a deal like Colome should get. Instead he was a giveaway w Gausman for some B/C specs.
The team feels enough development at the major league level can be helped by a winning guy being there. Like a trade of the minor league player of the year for James Shields for 2013, a barely winning team, would help the team in 2014 when they took the AL pennant. Hanging on to who ever for 2020 may help teams that follow. Seams to be a KC mandate.
Royals gon have a hard time then! At least Mariners ownership has been willing to take on salary or eat it to trade players.
It depends on what you value. If it’s competitiveness, then you want the best possible talent in return, and if that means absorbing salary, by all means, do it. If it’s just tossing out salary, then expect little if any return. The problem (for the fans) of these tanking teams is that some owners don’t see enough of an incentive to improve, especially marginally, when all they need to do to make a profit is keep payrolls down.
How about Tyler oneill, Jake wofford and adolis Garcia for Duffy and Kennedy and their whole contracts? Throw in diekman and you can have shreve and mayers and edmundo sosa
It’s funny the teams that are the most paranoid about their payroll are the teams that have the lowest payrolls in the league. Kansas City’s payroll if I am not mistaken it’s somewhere in the area of 70 million that is a joke in 2019.