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Blue Jays Planning For New Stadium?

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TODAY: In response to the Globe & Mail’s story, Rogers Communications spokesperson Andrew Garas released a statement to media: “Prior to the pandemic, we were exploring options for the stadium but through this year our primary focus has been keeping our customers connected and keeping our employees safe, so there is no update on the Rogers Centre to share at this time.”

Andrew Tumilty, a spokesperson for Waterfront Toronto, also told The Canadian Press that Willis’ piece “was the first Waterfront Toronto has heard of the Quayside site as a potential new home for the Blue Jays,” in reference to the team’s apparent Plan B if building a new ballpark on the current Rogers Centre site isn’t feasible.

NOVEMBER 27: Rogers Centre has been the Blue Jays’ home stadium since 1989, but that might not be the case for much longer. Blue Jays ownership is hoping to knock down Rogers Centre and put up a new multibillion-dollar facility in its place, Andrew Willis of the Globe and Mail reports.

As you’d expect with such a grand plan, there are potential roadblocks in the way. For one, Rogers Communications Inc. – which owns the Blue Jays – does not own the land on which the ballpark sits. That belongs to Canada Lands Company. Secondly, the Blue Jays would need the Canadian federal government to sign off in order to move forward with this project, which Willis writes could take five to eight years to complete if approved. Jays ownership, government officials and the real estate arm of Brookfield Asset Management Inc. plan to go public with the project in 2021, though, according to Willis. Those two companies would fund the stadium, whereas Rogers Centre was built largely on taxpayer money.

A replacement stadium for the Blue Jays would occupy some of the same land as the Rogers Centre. The rest would be dedicated to “residential towers, office buildings, stores and public space” as part of a redevelopment plan for Toronto, per Willis. If that plan collapses, though, the Blue Jays could seek a new lakefront stadium instead. Any new facility would feature natural grass, not the artificial turf the Blue Jays play on now, though it’s unclear whether it would include a retractable roof – the most recognizable aspect of Rogers Centre.

In the event the proposal to build a new stadium on the Rogers Centre site succeeds, it’s unclear where the Blue Jays would play their home games in the interim. Nearby Buffalo, N.Y., hosted the Blue Jays in 2020 because of travel restrictions stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic, but there is no word on whether that will continue if the club has to wait for a new ballpark.

Trevor Williams Elects Free Agency

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Trevor Williams has elected free agency over accepting an assignment to Triple-A, per John Dreker of Pirates Prospects (via Twitter). Williams was designated for assignment last week and largely assumed to choose free agency given his role in the Pirates rotation the last four seasons.

All told, Williams has been a steadying presence in the Buccos rotation since 2017, making a total of 93 starts spanning 522 innings with a 4.34 ERA/4.52 FIP, 7.0 K/9 to 3.0 BB/9, and 2.07 bWAR per 200 frames. The 28-year-old has mostly taken the backseat in the public eye to higher profile arms the likes of Tyler Glasnow and Chris Archer, however.

Williams best work came in 2017 and 2018. Last season was a low-point for Williams as he struggled to a 6.18 ERA/6.30 FIP in 55 1/3 innings over 11 starts. His strikeout rate actually increased to a career-high 19.4 K%, but his command wandered as well as his walk rate climbed to 8.3 BB%. The bigger issue for Williams was keeping the ball in the ballpark. He surrendered an ML-leading 15 home runs in 2020 despite the launch angle and exit velocity of opposing hitters decreasing from the previous season.

Mel Rojas Jr. Drawing Interest After MVP-Caliber KBO Season

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The MLB legacy of the Alou/Rojas family runs deep.  Felipe and Matty Alou made multiple All-Star teams in the 60s, with Jesus joining them on the 1963 Giants for the first all-brother outfield.  Felipe would further his reputation as the longtime manager of the Expos and Giants.  Moises would become an even better MLB player than his father Felipe, racking up six All-Star appearances and MVP votes in seven seasons.  And don’t forget Felipe’s other son, Luis, who was requested by MLB to use the surname on his birth certificate.  Luis Rojas now serves as manager of the Mets.

Moises’ cousin, Mel Rojas, pitched in the Majors in the 90s for the Expos and other clubs, racking up 126 saves in his big league career.  Mel Rojas Jr., however, hasn’t yet seen MLB success.  Mel Jr., 31 in May, was drafted by the Pirates in the third round in 2010 as a switch-hitting outfielder out of Wabash Valley College in Mount Caramel, Illinois.  At his MLB prospect peak, Rojas was ranked 23rd among Pirates prospects by Baseball America before the 2011 season.  BA wrote, “Some see him as having five-tool potential, though with no true plus tool, but others see him as a tweener who won’t be able to remain in center and may not hit enough for a corner.”

Rojas topped out at Triple-A in the Pirates organization, and was traded to the Braves in 2016 for cash considerations.  In 2017, he decided to reboot his career by signing with a KBO team, the KT Wiz.  After four strong years in Suwon, Rojas is back on the radar for MLB teams.  He appears on track for the KBO MVP award tomorrow after nearly winning the Triple Crown in 2020, boasting a .349/.417/.680 line with 47 home runs and 135 RBI in 628 plate appearances.  Ted Baarda of Sports Info Solutions recently provided a scouting report on Rojas.

Rojas is represented by his cousin Jay Alou, son of Jesus Alou.  Rojas fits best as a right fielder, and would require a Major League deal to return to the United States.  As Rojas said to Kyle Koster of The Big Lead back in July, “If I win the MVP, I’m for sure getting a big-league contract. It would mean everything to me, and I’m not just saying that.”  He earned $1.5MM in 2020, and is looking to top that amount.  The Wiz would like to retain him, but Rojas is also drawing interest from three MLB teams as well as three Japanese clubs.

The question is how Rojas’ KBO video game numbers would translate to MLB.  Rojas explained the difference in his interview with Koster: “Honestly, it’s harder to hit against Koreans than Americans sometimes. The average speed over here is 88-90 mph but it gets there quick and looks faster than it is. They’re very sneaky.”  Rojas hasn’t mashed at the level of Eric Thames, who peaked at a 216 wRC+ in KBO and landed a three-year, $16MM deal with the Brewers four years ago.  Thames has a 113 wRC+ in the Majors since returning, doing most of his damage against right-handed pitching.

When FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski translated Rojas’ 2019 KBO season to its MLB equivalency, his .322/.381/.530 line in KBO became .266/.314/.448 in MLB.  That’s pretty similar to the work of an Eric Hosmer or Renato Nunez the last couple of seasons, though Rojas upped his game in 2020.  Unlike someone like Thames, Rojas has the ability to play the corner outfield capably, and appears to have the arm for right field.  A low-level MLB deal does seem possible for Rojas, but he’d likely have to wait until after Wednesday’s non-tender deadline when teams will have a better picture of who’s available.

Garrett Richards On Blue Jays’ Radar

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The Blue Jays have expressed preliminary interest in Garrett Richards, per Ben Nicholson-Smith with Arden Zwelling on sportsnet.ca’s Blue Jays’ podcast. That’s not a head-spinning development, as Toronto is largely expected to kick the tires on most of the top names in the free agent pool. Still, “preliminary interest” means slightly more given the Blue Jays’ status as one of the more eager buyers on the market.

The Jays are known to have made a three-year, $40MM offer to Kevin Gausman, according to the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. In terms of their process for free agents like Gausman with qualifying offers attached (J.T. Realmuto, George Springer, DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Bauer), the Jays have a fairly specified process, per the same podcast as above. They take the dollar number that they’ve assigned to the draft pick they’d lose by signing a given free agent, and subtract that number from the offer made to the player. In a vacuum, that makes sense.

Predictive player evaluation models, of course, assume a range of potential outcomes, making for a murkier process than the one described above. To take any valuation of a player as gospel is unrealistic. Furthermore, putting the onus of the lost draft pick on the player largely neglects the competitive aspect of free agency. The only players Toronto could ever expect to sign would be ones they rate higher than the market norms (or those that could be convinced with supplemental appeals, such as culture, the tax situation in Canada, or the quality of the roster).

Granted, in a literal sense, that is exactly the free agent process – winning a free agent bid means signing those players for whom the Jays are willing to pay more than everybody else. That doesn’t just happen when the Jays find value in a player that nobody else can see – such as might be the case with the mythical “diamond in the rough” a la Max Muncy or Justin Turner signing with the Dodgers. In practice, most players have explicit appeal that multiple teams all see at once. This is why the dollar value of a player in free agency is by necessity a dynamic thing. In effect, it’s hard to know where exactly Toronto’s dollar value began with Gausman, only roughly where it maxed out.

Still, the greater point here probably comes from simply knowing Toronto’s thinking. As noted on the podcast, many conversations happen during the courtship process and only some actually end in contract offers. Though Richards comes from a different pool of free agents than Gausman – meaning free agents unburdened by a qualifying offer – there’s still no indication that Toronto has moved beyond those initial meet-and-greet level of courtship with Richards.

After missing out on Gausman, however, the Jays are clear about their desire to acquire someone else to fill out their rotation. Richards fits the profile. The former Angel isn’t at the tippy-top of the pitching market, but he did land 24th on MLBTR’s list of top-50 free agents. The 32-year-old posted a 4.03 ERA/4.28 FIP across 51 1/3 innings with San Diego last season, presumably showing enough in his full-speed return from Tommy John to prove that he’s back to full strength. For the Jays, that’s likely to put him up near the top for starters in their price range, speculatively speaking.

Braves Notes: Melancon, Morton, Leaks, Chemistry, And Culture

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The Braves pulled off a somewhat surprising pair of moves early this postseason by nabbing starters Drew Smyly and Charlie Morton on one-year deals. That the deals were surprising, however, was not surprising. The Braves keep their internal conversations about players internal, according to the Athletic’s David O’Brien, who writes, “Atlanta is as leak-free as any organization in sports regarding rumors of potential trades and free-agent signings, and if the player and his agent are equally private, which is how the Braves like it and something that agents are aware of, there could and often are discussions and deals completed before anything is leaked.”

Hence, the dearth of news about re-signing, say, Mark Melancon, O’Brien notes, doesn’t equate to a lack of movement or interest. Simply, if the Braves do bring Melancon back, the public isn’t likely to hear about it until the deal is done.

In the meantime, Braves’ fans can content themselves with the additions they’ve already made this winter. After all, while neither the Smyly nor Morton contracts were big deals financially, they are big deals in terms of potential impact. The Morton acquisition bumped Fangraphs’ valuation of Atlanta’s rotation from the 16th-ranked rotation in the game to 11th, writes Jay Jaffe. Morton brings 1.5 more projected WAR than the Braves’ in-house alternative, per Steamer.

But for Morton, the decision to sign on the dotted line had as much to do with the personalities involved as it did the strength of the rotation. Familiarity with catching coach Sal Fasano, pitching coach Rick Kranitz, and catcher Travis d’Arnaud helped Morton commit to the switch from Tampa to Atlanta, according to a piece by O’Brien from just before Thanksgiving.

The already-established clubhouse culture in Atlanta also made the Braves an intriguing destination. Chemistry may not be the metric du jour for statisticians, but it was a consideration for Morton. Per O’Brien, Morton said, “Most good teams, they can outplay their talent level just by being close and having good attitudes and having fun. From everything that I know and what I’ve seen, the Braves have both. It looks like they’re really loose, fun-loving, but they’re also really talented. So I’m looking forward to being part of a group where you’re looking forward to getting to the park every day and you just want to hang out, being excited to play together.”

Quick Hits: Colon, Fresno Grizzlies, MiLB

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The story hasn’t changed for 47-year-old hurler Bartolo Colon. Though he hasn’t pitched in the Majors since 2018, he desires to return and finish his career with the Mets, tweets MLB Insider Héctor Gómez. Colon felt the same way last May, however. It’s hard to imagine that his chances of suiting up again in New York have increased since then. A veteran of 21 seasons, the hugely-popular Colon turns 48-years-old in May. “Big Sexy” last appeared in the Majors with 146 1/3 innings for the Rangers in 2018. He posted a 5.78 ERA/5.47 FIP with 5.0 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 that season. With that, let’s check on the latest updates from minor league baseball…

  • The Fresno Grizzlies are facing a tough decision: accept relegation from Triple-A to Single-A, or leave the Major League system entirely, according to J.J. Cooper of Baseball America. News of MLB’s ultimatum to the Grizzlies first came from Brianna Calix of the Fresno Bee, who obtained a letter emailed from deputy commissioner and chief legal officer for MLB Daniel R. Halem to high-ranking government officials in Fresno. In the letter, per Calix, Halem writes: “Because communications with the (Fresno) Grizzlies and City of Fresno have indicated they have no interest in operating a Single-A affiliate, we do not currently intend to offer any affiliation to the Grizzlies or Fresno.”
  • The Grizzlies remain committed in their stance to stay in Triple-A. The difference in league amounts to more home games, a higher profile, and likely more revenue. Fresno Mayor Lee Brand and Mayor-elect Jerry Dyer issued a statement in response to MLB, posted here on Twitter by Marek Warszawski of the Fresno Bee. It’s certainly easy to understand their desire to remain in Triple-A, but for MLB’s part, they’re trying to execute a restructuring plan that they think will bring more revenue to the game overall.
  • For a reminder on how the Grizzlies and other clubs got to this point, Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper walks through the timeline of negotiations between MLB and MiLB from December of 2018 to the present day. Cooper includes the latest development from last week when he reported on the changing dynamics for clubhouse managers.

Phillies Reduce Front Office Workforce

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The Philadelphia Phillies let go 80 employees on Wednesday, reducing their front office workforce by 20%, reports Marcus Hayes of the Philadelphia Inquirer. A number of Major League teams have diminished their staffs since the pandemic prompted revenue losses all across the sporting landscape, but the Phillies brought their own particular panache to the unfortunate business of layoffs. Hayes reports that employees were alerted of the latest cuts by email the day before Thanksgiving.

The 80 positions that were eliminated came via buyouts and layoffs on both the business and baseball side of the front office, notes Gary Miles, also of the Philadelphia Inquirer. This is just the latest in a number of cost-cutting efforts made by the Phillies to counterbalance the losses of the past year. A letter in June gave employees some idea of the scope of revenue depletion with which the organization was wrestling, and a round of salary reductions impacted employees making more than $90K. Middleton himself forewent his salary, but none of it was enough to stave off the eventual slimming of personnel files.

Managing partner John Middleton hasn’t always put forth the best optics since taking over the Phillies in 2016, and this latest bit of personnel management certainly falls into that camp. Even if these layoffs were delayed by some time, and even if most of them were buyouts, the timing of the notice certainly paints a grim picture.

Meanwhile, the Phillies continue to search for a new GM to lead their now-depleted baseball operations team. Word is they’ve tabled the search for a president of baseball ops, but they continue to seek a new GM. On the one hand, the tepid free agent market and a presumably long winter provide opportunity for the Phillies to exert some patience in their search for a new top decision-maker. On the other hand, the Atlanta Braves – their division rival and incumbent team-to-beat in the NL East – are setting the pace early by adding two viable arms to their already-strong rotation.

MLBTR Poll: Shortstop Trade Candidates

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It’s early in the offseason, but three star shortstops have already been mentioned as trade candidates. The Indians’ Francisco Lindor, the Rockies’ Trevor Story and the Astros’ Carlos Correa each seem to have at least a small chance of ending up on the move this winter. The question is: Which of the three would you prefer to acquire?

There isn’t a more accomplished member of the trio than Lindor, a 27-year-old who has already earned four All-Star nods and a pair of Gold Glove Awards since his career began in 2015. If you’re looking for flaws, though, the switch-hitting Lindor isn’t coming off a stellar year at the plate, as he slashed .258/.335/.415 (good for a league-average 100 wRC+) with eight home runs and six stolen bases in 266 trips. He also comes with potentially the biggest price tag of the three players, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a salary between $17.5MM and $21MM for his final year of team control.

Story, 28, had a better year than Lindor and Correa in 2019, slashing .289/.355/.519 (117 wRC+) with 11 homers and 15 steals across 259 plate appearances. It was the third straight exemplary season for Story, a two-time All-Star who’s also a year from free agency. Story’s locked in for a $17.5MM salary next season after signing a two-year, $27.5MM extension before 2020.

Correa is also slated to be part of next winter’s standout class of free-agent shortstops. In the meantime, he’ll rake in the lowest salary (between $8MM and $10.2MM) next year. The 26-year-old’s name hit the rumor mill earlier this week, though the Astros reportedly aren’t in active negotiations to trade him. If they were, they wouldn’t be aiming to sell high on Correa, who was uncharacteristically pedestrian at the plate in 2020. Correa wound up with a line of .264/.326/.383 (97 wRC+) and five HRs in 221 PA. The good news is that he stayed healthy after three consecutive injury-limited, albeit more productive, seasons.

All three of these well-known shortstops are nearing free agency, so any of them could be involved in trades before the 2021 campaign. Considering their production and their salaries, which one would you want?

(Poll link for app users)

Which shortstop would you want in a trade?
Lindor 64.84% (11,320 votes)
Story 23.96% (4,183 votes)
Correa 11.20% (1,955 votes)
Total Votes: 17,458

Stearns On Brewers’ Offseason Needs, Hader Rumors

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The Brewers eked out a postseason berth in 2020 by virtue of this year’s expanded format, laying claim to the No. 8 seed in the National League despite finishing with a sub-.500 record (29-31). They’re headed back into the offseason with plenty of holes to fill thanks to last year’s slate of one-year pickups, but the infield in particular is rife with uncertainty.

In Keston Hiura, Luis Urias and Orlando Arcia, the Brew Crew has some options up the middle, but the infield corners are far less certain. That reality is all the more clear after president of baseball operations David Stearns acknowledged the deficiency in an interview with The Athletic’s Will Sammon this week when discussing the work that lies ahead between now and Spring Training.

“I think what is clear is our production at first base and third base has to improve,” Stearns tells Sammon. “That, we know. Whether that can come from internal sources or external sources are some of the questions we’re continuing to talk through, evaluate and then determine the best course of action.”

While Stearns’ comment about a need for improvement is of course accurate, it also in many ways largely undersells how dire the situation is. Milwaukee third basemen combined for an abysmal .200/.279/.295 in 2020, which translated to an MLB-worst 56 wRC+ at the position.

Things were better across the diamond, where Milwaukee first basemen batted .229/.303/.467 — good for a 101 wRC+ that ranked 17th in the Majors. However, the bulk of that production came from Jedd Gyorko, whose option was bought out at season’s end. Daniel Vogelbach was red-hot in his short time with the Brewers to end the season, but he only logged eight plate appearances as a first baseman. He could be in line for more of a look at first in 2021, but it’s not guaranteed that he’ll be tendered a contract. Vogelbach is arbitraiton-eligible and struggled enormously from the All-Star break in 2019 up until his acquisition by the Brewers. He’s more of a designated hitter than a first baseman, and the lack of clarity regarding the universal DH could lead to a non-tender.

There are plenty of external options to explore at the infield corners, although Sammon reports that the Brewers’ payroll — like the payroll of most clubs around the league — is expected to decline in 2021. The Brewers’ 2020 payroll was set to open at just shy of $98MM before the season was halted and salaries were pro-rated. They currently have about $47.5MM in guaranteed contracts plus a big slate of arbitration players who could approach roughly $26MM in salary. Several of those names are non-tender candidates, which could give Stearns & Co. some breathing room as they search for upgrades.

Trades for high-profile infielders like Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado and Francisco Lindor can be ruled out due to the salary associated with those players. Free agents Justin Turner and DJ LeMahieu, similarly, are likely to be too expensive. But the market does have some intriguing bounceback options, with Jake Lamb and Carlos Santana among the veterans eyeing rebounds. Trade possibilities are numerous, of course, and the Brewers will see a whole new set of possible candidates join the field next week after Wednesday’s non-tender deadline. They’ll also have a firmer grasp on what they can afford to spend at that point.

One player sure to be immune from that non-tender fate is lefty Josh Hader, whose name has again popped up on the rumor circuit. Despite Stearns’ prior assertion that he doesn’t envision trading Hader, Fansided’s Robert Murray reported recently that Milwaukee is “open” to such a move. That’s a far cry from shopping Hader, of course, and Stearns again sought to downplay the possibility while instead characterizing any listening on Hader more as due diligence. The Brewers, per Stearns are in a “very similar position” with Hader as they were after the trade deadline when he initially made those comments.

“Josh remains a very large contributor to our team and he has since he got here,” Stearns says. “I don’t really anticipate that changing. And when you have really good players, you’re going to get calls on them. And I don’t anticipate that changing, either.”

Stearns, like many of today’s presidents and general managers, seems to prefer not to operate in absolutes, so it’s only natural that he’ll continue listening should teams continue to try to blow the Brewers away with an offer. And this time next year or even at the 2021 trade deadline, the situation may be different.

If Hader keeps piling up strikeouts and saves, the arbitration process will keep ballooning his salary. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.1MM in 2021, and barring a long-term deal, that number could quickly rise beyond Milwaukee’s comfort level. If the Brewers are well out of the race next summer or carry Hader into the offseason, it might become more realistic to see a low-payroll club more aggressively solicit offers. That’s not to say that a trade this winter is wholly off the table, but at least for the time being, he appears affordable enough that Milwaukee can enjoy the benefit of a Hader/Devin Williams combo late in games to help slam the door in close contests.

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