By Mark Polishuk | at
MLB Trade Rumors is deep into our annual Offseason Outlook series, breaking down what each of the 30 teams may or may not have planned on the transactions front this winter. Here is the list of completed entries thus far, and keep checking this post as more teams are added…
NL West
NL Central
NL East
AL East
AL Central
AL West
By Mark Polishuk | at
The Padres overhauled their catching mix at the August 31 trade deadline, acquiring Austin Nola and Jason Castro in separate trades with the Mariners and Angels, while Luis Torrens went to Seattle as part of the Nola trade and Austin Hedges was sent to the Indians as part of the trade return for Mike Clevinger.
The end result was that Francisco Mejia was the only catcher who entered and exited deadline season in a Padres uniform, though he wasn’t on the active roster. Mejia was on the injured list due to a thumb contusion and, once activated, he played in only one more MLB game before being sent to the Padres’ alternate training site. As we get deeper into the offseason, it’s fair to wonder whether that one September game (a pinch-hit appearance on Sept. 16) might also mark Mejia’s final outing as a Padre.
Nola is still the projected starter, but recent reports from Yadier Molina himself have connected San Diego to Molina’s free agent market. Star catching prospect Luis Campusano also made his big league debut in 2020 and, perhaps tellingly, was included on the Padres’ postseason roster over Mejia as the third catcher. However, Campusano’s status is currently up in the air following an October arrest for felony marijuana possession.
Given the uncertainty over Campusano and the chances that Molina could sign elsewhere, it’s quite possible that the Friars could simply hang onto Mejia and use him as Nola’s backup. (If not Molina, another veteran catcher could be signed as further depth, perhaps to a minor league deal rather than the MLB contract Molina will demand.) If the Padres did sign Molina or another noted veteran catcher, however, Mejia could suddenly be expendable.
It was back in July 2018 that Mejia was a much more prominent trade chip, as he was sent from the Indians to the Padres in exchange for both Brad Hand and Adam Cimber. At the time, Mejia was widely considered one of baseball’s top minor leaguers, ranked as high as fifth in Baseball Prospectus’ top-100 prospect ranking prior to the 2018 season. Over an even 2200 career plate appearances at the minor league level, Mejia has hit .295/.349/.462 with 58 home runs and looked all the world like a player ready for the Show.
Even in 2019, Mejia performed well enough in his first extended taste of Major League action that he seemed to be living up to the prospect hype. Despite two separate IL stints due to a knee sprain and an oblique strain, Mejia still hit a respectable .265/.316/.438 over 244 PA in 2019. Unfortunately, Mejia couldn’t come close to this form last season, hitting just .077/.143/.179 in 42 PA — with Hedges posting equally dismal numbers, it isn’t surprising that San Diego chose to shake up their catching corps at the deadline.
Mejia only turned 25 last month and is still close enough to his blue-chip prospect days that he would certainly generate some interest on the trade market. Any number of teams would like to upgrade their catching situation, ranging both from rebuilding clubs to would-be contenders. The Yankees, Phillies, Nationals, Mets, Braves, Marlins, Rays, Brewers, Reds, Angels, or Cardinals are some of the names in the latter group, and the two New York teams, St. Louis, and Anaheim have also been linked to Molina.
While lots of teams need catching, one of the outstanding questions about Mejia is whether or not he’ll ultimately stick at catcher over the long term. Mejia saw some action as a corner outfielder when he was in Cleveland’s farm system, and he also played four MLB games as a left fielder for the Padres in 2019. Obviously Mejia’s bat carries more value at catcher than at any other position, though showing an ability to at least passably play on the grass might not hurt Mejia’s trade value all that much, given how multi-positional versatility is so prized by modern front offices.
The Padres’ interest in Molina shows that the club has at least some inclination to alter its catching mix yet again, so this might be the position to watch since San Diego is otherwise pretty set elsewhere around the diamond. Rather than again deal from their deep farm system, the Padres could prefer to move an MLB-ready player like Mejia who might be in need of a change of scenery.
By Mark Polishuk | at
Mets owner Steve Cohen and team president Sandy Alderson have made it clear that the team is intent on being big players this offseason, though Alderson provided a bit more clarity about these winter plans in an interview with Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (partial audio link).
“We expect to be somewhat active in the free agent market as opposed to the trade market. We don’t want to give up our young guys,” Alderson said, noting that the Mets plan to “recommit to our farm system and try to stay away from…our really prospects in significant trades.”
While Alderson stated that the organization’s lack of “patience…to allow these players to develop” dates back beyond just “the last couple of years,” the obvious implication is that the Cohen/Alderson Mets aren’t planning any of the blockbuster prospect-for-star trades that defined Brodie Van Wagenen’s tenure as the team’s general manager. (Namely the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz trade with the Mariners and the deal that landed Marcus Stroman from the Blue Jays.)
It could be that this strategy was also somewhat born out of necessity, as the Mets don’t have a ton of blue chip minor league talent. Baseball America ranked the Mets 20th in their August ranking of all 30 organizations, and MLB.com doesn’t have any Mets prospects ranked within the top half of the top-100 prospects list (though Ronny Mauricio, Francisco Alvarez, and Brett Baty all appear later in the list).
“There are only two currencies in baseball: players and money,” Alderson said. “Right now, especially in the upper levels of our system, we don’t have the players. We have some money at this point. So, we’re going to sort of balance those two things.”
This is surely music to the ears of free agents, as the Mets are expected to be bidders on multiple big names on the open market. Cohen’s financial resources could also play a big role in trades, however, given how many teams will be looking to cut costs this winter and might be open to moving some of their higher-salaried players. If the Mets are willing to eat a larger portion of those contracts, rival teams could give up some noteworthy talent for a relatively meager prospect return.
By Anthony Franco | at
On this date five years ago, the Tigers agreed to terms with Jordan Zimmermann on a five-year, $110MM deal. The Wisconsin native expressed a preference to return to the Midwest after spending the first eight-plus years of his pro career in the Nationals’ organization.
At the time, Zimmermann looked a reliable bet to log #2 starter caliber production. Between 2013-15, the right-hander had tossed 614.2 innings of 3.19 ERA/3.27 FIP ball for Washington. He wasn’t overpowering, but Zimmermann threw a ton of strikes, avoided barrels, and punched out enough batters to become a high-end starter. If anything, the deal looked a bit team-friendly at the time of signing. Entering the offseason, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes had projected Zimmermann to pull down $126MM over six years.
Unfortunately, things didn’t play out anywhere near as hoped. Zimmermann went on the injured list twice in 2016 and was limited to 105.1 innings of 4.87 ERA ball that first season. Things continued to trend down from there. Over the next three seasons, Zimmermann managed just a 5.80 ERA, with opposing hitters posting a .299/.339/.518 line against him. He missed almost all of this past season after being diagnosed with a forearm strain but finished the year healthy.
Zimmermann is now a free agent, and he’ll almost certainly have to work his way back onto a team’s roster via a minor-league deal. As of May, the 34-year-old said he had no interest in retiring any time soon.
By Anthony Franco | at
Some notes from around the National League:
By Anthony Franco | at
By next Wednesday’s non-tender deadline, the Yankees will have to make a decision on how to proceed with Gary Sánchez. The 27-year-old (28 next week) originally signed with the New York organization as an international amateur back in 2009. He emerged as a top prospect and burst onto the MLB scene with an otherworldly final two months in 2016. He finished as runner-up in AL Rookie of the Year voting that year after hitting 20 home runs in just 229 plate appearances.
Sánchez backed that up with an elite 2017 season that saw him garner some down-ballot MVP support. After an injury-hampered, disappointing 2018 effort, Sánchez seemingly reemerged as one of the game’s premier catchers in 2019. Unfortunately, the wheels fell off completely in 2020, as he hit .147/.253/.365 with a woeful 36% strikeout rate. By the postseason, Sánchez had mostly fallen behind Kyle Higashioka on the depth chart.
He’s also drawn his share of criticism for his work behind the plate. Some of that is deserved, as his 52 passed balls over the past five seasons leads the sport. Sánchez generally rated as a slightly below-average pitch framer as well. But his rocket arm has helped him cut down 32.6% of attempted basestealers in his career, well above the league average of 27.2%. Altogether, he’s a generally average defensive catcher in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved (although he did rate rather poorly in 2020).
So, how to proceed with a player who has had his share of ups and downs? Over his career, Sánchez has been plenty productive in the Bronx. His .236/.320/.502 career slash line works out to a 117 wRC+, indicating he’s been seventeen points better than the league average hitter. Among qualified catchers, only Yasmani Grandal has edged out Sánchez offensively since the latter broke into the league. Sánchez’s projected $5.1MM – $6.4MM arbitration salary would be a bargain if he can rediscover that form at the plate. But the backstop’s most recent season was atrocious, leaving the Yankees’ front office in a bind.
There isn’t another clear fit at catcher on the current roster. A team with World Series aspirations can’t feel comfortable turning the primary job over to Higashioka. Free agency offers a few options. J.T. Realmuto is the prize, but James McCann and Yadier Molina look like potential regulars. (The Yankees have shown some interest in Molina already). To non-tender Sánchez would be a tough blow, though, considering how recently he looked like a franchise cornerstone. They could explore the trade market, but Sánchez isn’t exactly teeming with surplus value, as Craig Edwards of FanGraphs recently explored.
Assuming opposing teams aren’t willing to give up much value in trade, where should GM Brian Cashman and the front office go from here?
(poll link for app users)
By Steve Adams and Tim Dierkes | at
More than 200 MLB players are currently eligible for arbitration, meaning they are on a team’s 40-man roster and have enough service time to have their salaries determined through the longstanding backward-looking system. At the low end, this includes players who qualify for Super Two status, the exact cutoff for which is not known yet for 2020. The Super Two cutoff typically falls around two years and 130 days (written as 2.130) but has fallen as low as 2.115 last year. The high end of service time would be anyone short of the six years needed to qualify for free agency, even one day shy like Kris Bryant.
Potentially arbitration eligible players have been getting pared from 40-man rosters since the offseason began, but those that remain will be subject to the non-tender deadline. This deadline is at 8pm ET on Wednesday, December 2nd. By that point, teams must inform arbitration-eligible players whether they will receive a non-guaranteed contract for the 2020 season, or else become free agents. Once a player is tendered a contract, the two sides will have another roughly two months to work out salaries before arbitration hearings kick off in February. Non-tendered players immediately become free agents who can sign with another team for any amount. Those will be added to our free agent list and tracker.
There is a general expectation among baseball writers that this year, arbitration eligible players will be cut loose in record numbers due to teams’ financial losses in 2020 and uncertainty for 2021. Eric Longenhagen at FanGraphs recently explored recent historical non-tender data, suggesting that the number of players being cut at the deadline already has been on the rise. My guess is that we’ll see a handful of players cut that normally wouldn’t be, but nothing wildly abnormal.
As we do each year at MLBTR, we’re providing a list of players whose teams could potentially choose not to tender them a contract, thus sending them into the free agent pool earlier than expected. It should be emphasized that we’re not indicating that each of these players is likely to be non-tendered (though that’s certainly the case with some of them). Typically, we list any player for which we can envision at least a 10 percent chance of a non-tender, but this year I’ve included some long shots who are probably less likely than that.
It should also be noted that some of these non-tender candidates will be traded prior to the December 2nd deadline rather than simply cut loose. Some could also be claimed by another team on waivers. Other borderline candidates may be presented with an offer that is notably lower than their projected salary and could accept the “take it or leave it” ultimatum rather than being non-tendered. This is known as a pre-tender contract. Multiyear extensions are another possibility.
Determining arbitration salaries will be especially difficult this offseason, which I’ve written about here. That difficulty also applies to the arbitration salary projections Matt Swartz provides each year for MLBTR, which can be found here. In this list, I’ve provided Matt’s “Method 3” arbitration projections. On to our list of non-tender candidates:
Catchers
Curt Casali, Reds ($1.8MM)
Elias Diaz, Rockies ($850K)
Austin Hedges, Indians ($3.0MM)
Omar Narvaez, Brewers ($2.9MM)
Gary Sanchez, Yankees ($5.5MM)
Pedro Severino, Orioles ($1.4MM)
Tony Wolters, Rockies ($2.0MM)
First Basemen
Danny Santana, Rangers ($3.6MM)
Second Basemen
Hanser Alberto, Orioles ($2.6MM)
Johan Camargo, Braves ($1.9MM)
Greg Garcia, Padres ($1.6MM)
Shortstops
Orlando Arcia, Brewers ($2.8MM)
Erik Gonzalez, Pirates ($1.2MM)
Niko Goodrum, Tigers ($1.6MM)
Daniel Robertson, Giants ($1.1MM)
Pat Valaika, Orioles ($1.1MM)
Third Basemen
Kris Bryant, Cubs ($18.6MM)
Travis Shaw, Blue Jays ($4.5MM)
Left Fielders
Tommy Pham, Padres ($8.0MM)
Eddie Rosario, Twins ($9.6MM)
Kyle Schwarber, Cubs ($7.9MM)
Center Fielders
Albert Almora, Cubs ($1.575MM)
Delino DeShields, Indians ($2.1MM)
Brian Goodwin, Reds ($2.7MM)
Guillermo Heredia, Mets ($1.3MM)
Right Fielders
Ben Gamel, Brewers ($1.7MM)
Nomar Mazara, White Sox ($5.7MM)
Tyler Naquin, Indians ($1.8MM)
Jace Peterson, Brewers ($700K)
Designated Hitters
Jose Martinez, Cubs ($2.1MM)
Daniel Vogelbach, Brewers ($1.4MM)
Starting Pitchers
Tyler Anderson, Giants ($3.7MM)
Yonny Chirinos, Rays ($1.6MM)
Chi Chi Gonzalez, Rockies ($1.2MM)
Jon Gray, Rockies ($5.9MM)
Robert Gsellman, Mets ($1.3MM)
Reynaldo Lopez, White Sox ($1.7MM)
Steven Matz, Mets ($5.1MM)
Carlos Rodon, White Sox ($4.5MM)
Jose Urena, Marlins ($3.9MM)
Vince Velasquez, Phillies ($4.0MM)
Right-Handed Relievers
Justin Anderson, Angels ($700K)
Matt Andriese, Angels ($1.9MM)
Shawn Armstrong, Orioles ($800K)
Matt Barnes, Red Sox ($4.1MM)
Ryan Brasier, Red Sox ($1.0MM)
John Brebbia, Cardinals ($800K)
Austin Brice, Red Sox ($700K)
Luis Cessa, Yankees ($1.1MM)
Adam Cimber, Indians ($800K) – designated for assignment
A.J. Cole, Blue Jays ($800K)
Jairo Diaz, Rockies ($800K)
Seranthony Dominguez, Phillies ($900K)
Carlos Estevez, Rockies ($1.5MM)
Michael Feliz, Pirates ($1.1MM)
Trevor Gott, Giants ($700K)
Ben Heller, Yankees ($700K)
Jonathan Holder, Yankees ($900K)
Corey Knebel, Brewers ($5.125MM)
Luke Jackson, Braves ($1.9MM)
Joe Jimenez, Tigers ($1.0MM)
Keynan Middleton, Angels ($900K)
Colin Rea, Cubs ($1.0MM)
Hansel Robles, Angels ($3.9MM)
Nick Tropeano, Mets ($700K)
Dan Winkler, Cubs ($900K)
Left-Handed Relievers
Scott Alexander, Dodgers ($1.0MM)
Alex Claudio, Brewers ($2.0MM)
Grant Dayton, Braves ($800K)
Wandy Peralta, Giants ($1.0MM)
Kyle Ryan, Cubs ($1.2MM)
Chasen Shreve ($800K)
By Mark Polishuk | at
The Hanwha Eagles of the Korea Baseball Organization have agreed to deals with left-hander Ryan Carpenter, and right-hander Nick Kingham. (Hat tips to the CPBL Stats website and Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net.) Both pitchers will receive a $100K signing bonus, while Carpenter will receive $300K salary and another potential $100K in incentives, and Kingham gets a $250K salary and $200K in incentives.
Both pitchers will be spending a second season overseas. Carpenter pitched for the Rakuten Monkeys of the Chinese Professional Baseball League in 2020, and Kingham will remain in the KBO League after an injury-shortened season with SK Wyverns.
A veteran of 15 games with the Tigers in 2018-19, Carpenter posted an 8.57 ERA, 2.35 K/BB rate, and 5.7 K/9 over his 63 Major League innings. After inking a deal with the Monkeys last January, Carpenter performed well in his first CPBL season, delivering a 4.00 ERA, 4.55 K/BB rate, and 8.6 K/9 over 157 1/3 innings, starting 25 of his 26 appearances.
Kingham suffered an elbow injury that ended his stint with the Wyverns after only two starts (and a 6.75 ERA), as he was released in July. It wasn’t the first time that elbow problems have impacted Kingham’s career, as his development as a top-100 ranked prospect in the Pirates’ farm system was curtailed by Tommy John surgery in 2015. Though he still showed some flashes of his old form at the minor league level, Kingham managed only a 6.08 ERA over 131 2/3 career MLB innings with the Pirates and Blue Jays in 2018-19.
By Mark Polishuk | at
The Nationals’ recent interest in Kris Bryant isn’t the first time Washington has explored trading for the former NL MVP, as the Nats and Cubs held some discussions just last offseason. Victor Robles was known to be of interest to Chicago in a potential Bryant trade, and Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post adds that held firm in keeping not only Robles, but also Juan Soto, Trea Turner, and pitching prospect Jackson Rutledge during negotiations with the Cubs.
Needless to say, there was zero chance Soto, Turner, or probably even Robles were being moved for Bryant last offseason, and this quartet will continue to be off the table in any trade talks this winter. Rutledge (the 17th overall pick of the 2019 draft and ranked by MLB.com as Washington’s top prospect) could have made some sense as a trade chip when Bryant was coming off an impressive 2019 campaign and had two years of team control remaining. Now, however, Bryant is just a year away from free agency and is looking to rebound from an injury-plagued 2020 season. As Dougherty notes, the Nationals or any other team might not have to give up much or any major prospect capital to land Bryant, if the Cubs’ chief intent is just to get Bryant’s projected $18.6MM salary off their books.
More from the NL East…
By Mark Polishuk | at
George Springer is one of the most prominent of the many free agents the Blue Jays are reportedly exploring this offseason, though the Jays’ initial interest in Springer seems to be developing. According to Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi, the Jays have “progressed beyond just talking” with Springer, which would seem to indicate that Toronto has issued at least one offer to the former World Series MVP.
Such a step doesn’t necessarily indicate that a deal could be close, or even that Springer is the Blue Jays’ top free agent target. However, the Jays already made one early signing in bringing Robbie Ray back to the club on a one-year contract, and the wide net Toronto is seemingly casting over so many free agents could indicate that the Blue Jays are looking to strike while many other teams are still figuring out their payrolls or (along those same lines) planning to wait to make moves later in the offseason in order to find bargains. Davidi opines that the Jays first seem to be looking at position players in order to “nail down their lineup adds, figure out what’s staying, and then trade to get pitching help.”
From Springer’s perspective, there are pros and cons to signing early (with the Jays or any other team). Signing a deal now would allow him to avoid any prolonged uncertainty on the open market and allow him to entirely focus on the 2021 season with his new team. If the Blue Jays are one of relatively few teams who reportedly have money to spend this winter, signing would ensure that Springer can get top dollar rather than see Toronto spend its payroll on other players and then leaving Springer short a major suitor.
On the other hand, while the expected free agent crunch should impact players in the middle and lower tiers of the market, Springer and the other top-tier free agent names can safely assume they’ll still find an appropriately big payday. MLBTR ranked Springer third on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents and projected a hefty five-year, $125MM deal for the outfielder, even as he enters his age-31 season. As such, Springer faces no real rush to sign immediately since he knows a big contract awaits somewhere.
Springer might also want to wait for his market to fully reveal itself, once more teams do get their budgets finalized and more offers emerge. For instance, the Mets don’t seem to be fully diving into offseason moves until they figure out their front office situation, and loom as a potential bidder for just about anyone. “While the Blue Jays may be willing to set the market, agents will probably want to wait for the Mets to drop the gauntlet,” Davidi writes.
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