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Latest On Phillies’ GM Search: Byrnes, Epstein

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The Phillies have shown interest in Dodgers assistant general manager Jeff Kingston for their open GM job, but they’re also eyeing another member of LA’s front office: senior vice president of baseball operations Josh Byrnes. “There are strong indications” the Phillies met with Byrnes last week, Jayson Stark of The Athletic writes.

On the other hand, Theo Epstein is not a candidate for the Philadelphia job. Owner John Middleton did reach out to Epstein, per Stark, but the former Cubs president of baseball operations informed the Phillies he isn’t interested in the position. He’s likely to take at least a year off from running a club’s front office.

The 50-year-old Byrnes joins the previously reported Michael Hill as another former GM to meet with the Phillies regarding their vacancy. Byrnes was the GM of the Diamondbacks from 2006-10, and he then led the Padres from 2011-14. Neither one of those tenures worked out as hoped for Byrnes, but he has nonetheless been a popular GM candidate around the league in recent offseasons. It helps that Byrnes has been a prominent part of the Dodgers’ front office, arguably the best in the game, for seven seasons.

Angels, Giants, Reds Among Teams Interested In Dan Straily

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Right-hander Dan Straily dropped completely off the MLB radar following a dismal 2019 showing with the Orioles — a season that saw him surrender 52 earned runs in just 47 2/3 big league innings. Interest in the righty was tepid, and he opted to take a guaranteed $1MM deal with the Lotte Giants of the Korea Baseball Organization over a nonguaranteed deal with an MLB club.

That move could wind up paying dividends for Straily, who’ll turn 32 next Tuesday. Sportsgrid’s Craig Mish reports that the veteran righty is receiving interest from MLB and KBO clubs alike, with the Angels, Giants and Reds among the Major League teams to have reached out. Straily is aiming to decide between a return to the Majors and another season (or seasons) in South Korea as soon as next week, per the report.

Straily’s return to the market this winter comes under vastly different circumstances. While he was coming off the worst season of his professional career a year ago, Straily recently wrapped an outstanding debut campaign in the KBO. In 31 starts, Straily totaled 194 frames and pitched to a 2.50 ERA and 2.97 FIP, averaging 9.5 strikeouts, 2.4 walks and 0.46 home runs per nine innings pitched. It was a remarkable turnaround for the well-traveled right-hander — one that seems to have restored some confidence in his ability to navigate a Major League lineup.

The 2019 season was such a struggle for Straily that it’s easy to forget he’s not far removed from being a perfectly serviceable rotation piece in the Majors. From 2016-18, Straily pitched in 90 games for the Reds and Marlins, working to a collective 4.03 ERA with 7.8 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and 1.49 HR/9. Fielding-independent marks were less bullish on the righty (4.83 FIP, 4.89 xFIP) due in some part to a .261 average on balls in play that was well below the league average and a 77.9 percent strand rate that was well north of average. It’s fair to say that Straily probably did benefit from some good fortune, but extreme fly-ball pitchers like him are generally able to sustain lower BABIPs; his .261 mark over that three-year term is right in line with his career .267 mark.

Also working in Straily’s favor is the simple fact that he should be affordable if he opts to return from the KBO. It’s possible he could command a multi-year pact with a modest annual salary, but many teams are likely hoping to ink him on a one-year deal, perhaps with some incentives to help boost his annual value. He’d surely be able to generate multi-year interest in the KBO or perhaps in NPB at this point, though a successful big league return is the most lucrative potential path forward.

Rangers Interested In Ha-Seong Kim

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The Rangers have interest in star Korean infielder Ha-Seong Kim, MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan reports in his latest inbox column. The Kiwoom Heroes of the Korea Baseball Organization posted the 25-year-old Kim for Major League teams earlier this week.

While Kim has primarily played shortstop to this point in his career, he also spent a good chunk of time at third base this year after the Heroes brought Addison Russell over midway through the season. Kim is also capable of handling second base. As Sullivan points out, Kim checks some boxes for the Rangers by virtue of the fact that he’s a prime-aged player with the potential to provide an offensive upgrade in the infield without necessarily being boxed into one position at the time of signing.

As noted in our Rangers Offseason Outlook, Kim’s versatility indeed seems like a good fit for a Texas club that has openly expressed a desire to get younger. A pair of roadblocks at the two middle infield positions exist in shortstop Elvis Andrus and second baseman Rougned Odor, both of whom are signed for two more seasons. Andrus struggled through an injury-marred 2020 campaign, although he was a serviceable option at his position as recently as 2019 thanks to his strong glovework. Odor’s struggles have been far more persistent, however, and the question of whether the club will move on or drop him to a bench role becomes more prominent with each passing year.

Even if Texas is intent on keeping both stalwarts in place, Kim or Isiah Kiner-Falefa could be used as a multi-position utility piece. A pursuit of Kim wouldn’t necessarily be about winning immediately in 2021 so much as acquiring a long-term contributor, so if the Rangers feel he can be an everyday option at any of third base, shortstop or second base, there’s reason for the team to make a push for him and sort out playing time down the road.

The Rangers, of course, won’t be the only team in the mix for Kim; he’s also been linked to the Blue Jays already and will surely draw broader interest. Kim is an abnormally young free agent option for MLB teams, and after a strong showing early in his career, he’s broken out as a superstar-level performer in the KBO over the past two seasons.

Even as the KBO has become a slightly more pitcher-friendly setting in recent years, Kim has improved. Since Opening Day 2019, he’s slashed .307/.393/.500 with 62 doubles, three triples and 49 home home runs through 1247 plate appearances — including 30 long balls in 2020. He’s walked 145 times to just 148 strikeouts over that same two-year stretch and also gone 56-for-62 in stolen base attempts. Over the past two seasons, he’s been 41 percent better than a league-average hitter in the KBO, by measure of wRC+.

Whichever club signs Kim to a multi-year deal will need to pay a posting fee to the Heroes. That sum is dependent on the size of Kim’s contract and is on top of whatever money he’s guaranteed. The Heroes are entitled to a fee equal to 20 percent of the contract’s first $25MM in value, 17.5 percent of the next $25MM and 15 percent of anything money thereafter. Kim’s 30-day posting window began yesterday and will run through 5pm ET on Dec. 25. He’s free to sign at any point during that period and does not need to wait until the deadline to make a decision.

Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays

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The reigning American League champions will deploy their usual strategy of tight payroll management and canny roster maneuvering as they look to take the final step of capturing a World Series.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Blake Snell, SP: $39MM through 2023
  • Kevin Kiermaier, CF: $26MM through 2022 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2023)
  • Brandon Lowe, 2B/OF: $21.5MM through 2024 (includes $1MM buyout of $10.5MM club option for 2025; Rays also hold $11.5MM club option for 2026)
  • Yoshi Tsutsugo, 3B/OF: $7MM through 2021

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

It’s possible that in a normal 2020 season with fans in the stands and some extra postseason revenue in hand, the Rays might have taken the plunge in exercising Charlie Morton’s $15MM option.  Or, it’s just as possible that the Rays would have declined the option anyway, since trying to maximize value on any available payroll space is just how the team does business.  This includes even tough decisions like parting ways with Morton, who delivered nothing but good results over his two years in Tampa Bay.

Given the Rays’ 226-158 record over the last three seasons and the fact that they finished just two games shy of a World Series title, it’s hard to argue with the club’s methods.  It also makes their offseason moves both somewhat easy and somewhat difficult to predict.  Obviously we can rule out any big free agent signings or acquisitions of high-salaried stars (without another big contract going back in return), yet pretty much anything else besides a Wander Franco trade is conceivably on the table.

For instance, it isn’t surprising that the Rays are open to discussing Blake Snell in trade talks.  Should any future reports indicate that Tampa Bay is floating other guaranteed-salary players like Kevin Kiermaier, Yoshi Tsutsugo, or even Brandon Lowe in discussions with other teams, that also shouldn’t raise eyebrows.  It remains to be seen if Snell or any of this group will actually be dealt, but GM Erik Neander has shown he is willing to deal even premium players for less-heralded talents who are much less expensive but end up being comparably productive.

Let’s begin with the rotation, which is the most natural area of need with Morton gone.  The Rays had hopes of bringing Morton back on a lesser salary, but the veteran found another $15MM in the form of a one-year deal with the Braves.  That leaves Snell, Ryan Yarbrough, Tyler Glasnow, and likely Josh Fleming as the projected top four starters, with a host of candidates for the fifth spot.  Prospects Shane McClanahan and Joe Ryan are on the cusp of big league action — McClanahan debuted in this year’s postseason — and the hope is that former top prospect Brent Honeywell Jr. might finally be healthy after three years lost to major injuries.  Brendan McKay isn’t expected to be ready for the start of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery, but is penciled in to pitch at some point in 2021.

While the Rays have shown they’re comfortable putting young starters into high-leverage positions, it’s probably safe to assume the team will look to add at least one veteran to the mix.  We can likely rule out any eight-figure average annual salaries for that next veteran — Morton’s two-year, $30MM deal was a surprise — but several interesting names could emerge as candidates for lower-cost one-year deals.  These free agents could be attracted at the idea of pitching for a contender.

Tampa figures to look into acquiring a veteran to the relief corps as well, probably a left-hander since the club’s current bullpen mix tilts to the right.  Jose Alvarado is a potential non-tender and Aaron Loup is a free agent, so there would certainly be room for more southpaw help.  But, the Rays will likely continue to rely on their farm system and their ever-active shuttle of fresh Triple-A pitcher to fill out their pitching staff, whether it’s starters, relievers, or openers.

Trading from this minor league depth is a definite possibility, if perhaps a less of an option for the Rays this offseason than in past winters.  Between all of their pitching injuries last season and Morton’s departure, the Rays might prefer to keep most of their young arms in the fold rather than openly offer them as trade chips, though naturally that wouldn’t stop Neander and company from moving a pitching prospect if the right offer emerged.

In what has become almost an annual offseason tradition, the Rays will again be looking for catching help.  Mike Zunino’s option was declined, Michael Perez was claimed by the Pirates, and Kevan Smith elected free agency, leaving Tampa Bay without a single catcher who appeared in a game for them in 2020.  It’s possible Zunino could be re-signed at a lower cost than his $4.5MM option, though even if he is brought back, the Rays would be in some sense settling for a catcher who offers quality defense but whose offense has cratered over the last two seasons.  Prospect Ronaldo Hernandez could get a look but is more likely to be broken in as a backup rather than thrust into a regular role.

There aren’t many truly expensive options within the free agent catching market, so the Rays could make a signing and land another one-year stopgap behind the plate.  If Tampa Bay did decide to trade from its prospect depth, it could be argued that they should be using that trade capital to find a more longer-term catching option.  There aren’t many teams with a surplus of young catching, of course, but the Padres or Dodgers seem like speculative trade partners.  Since the Cubs seem open to trading any veteran making a significant salary, Willson Contreras would also seem like a trade target, though Contreras’ projected $5.6MM arbitration salary might give the Rays some pause.

Elsewhere around the diamond, Randy Arozarena’s status is up in the air given his recent detainment due to an alleged domestic incident.  Details are still scarce about the exact nature of the incident or what charges Arozarena may face, though legal issues aside, Arozarena may still face a possible suspension under the MLB/MLBPA joint domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy.

The outfield was probably already going to be a target area since Hunter Renfroe was let go, but if Arozarena could also miss time, the Rays would have a starting outfield of Manuel Margot, Kiermaier, and Austin Meadows, with Brett Phillips as a potential fourth outfielder, and Tsutsugo, Lowe, and Mike Brosseau all getting some time in the corner spots.  (Prospect Josh Lowe, Tampa Bay’s first-round pick in 2016, could also make his MLB debut in 2021.)  A right-handed hitting outfielder would be a solid addition to that collection, and Arozarena’s situation could determine whether that outfielder is more of a part-timer, or a potential everyday type.

The Rays are pretty set around the infield, but it would fit Neander’s M.O. to trade any of these players if a (more) inexpensive upgrade could be found elsewhere.  Depending on how the Rays feel about Nate Lowe’s readiness as a regular, it’s possible Ji-Man Choi could be replaced as the primary left-handed first base option, though Choi’s $1.6MM projected arbitration number isn’t onerous even for Tampa.

With so many controllable infielders already on hand, the Rays might feel more comfortable about moving some infield prospects in trade talks.  Franco obviously isn’t going anywhere, but the likes of Vidal Brujan, Taylor Walls, or Xavier Edwards would definitely get the attention of other clubs.

Franco’s development looms over the Rays’ infield plans, and while he doesn’t even turn 20 years old until March and has yet to play above high-A ball, it wouldn’t be a shock if he made his big league debut before 2021 was over.  Rays coaches and staffers did get a chance to evaluate Franco against higher-level talent at the team’s alternate training site over the summer, and Tampa has been aggressive in promoting its top prospects in the past.  This all said, the smart money is on Willy Adames continuing to hold down the fort at shortstop while Franco gets another year of development under his belt.

Pre-pandemic, Tampa Bay had a projected Opening Day payroll of just under $72.5MM.  Counting guaranteed contracts, projected arbitration salaries, and minimum salaries for pre-arb players, the Rays have approximately $63.68MM committed to their 2021 payroll.  Considering revenue losses, getting back up to even the $70MM threshold seems like a stretch, leaving Neander (as usual) without many extra funds on hand this winter.  The Rays front office’s ability to thrive within limited financial parameters will again be tested, but with much of a pennant-winning core already in place, Tampa could be just a piece or two away.

NPB’s Yakult Swallows Sign Jose Osuna, In Talks To Acquire Cy Sneed

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Jose Osuna announced on his Instagram page that he has signed with the Tokyo Yakult Swallows of Nippon Professional Baseball.  Pirates GM Ben Cherington recently suggested that Osuna would be heading to play in Asia after Pittsburgh designated Osuna for assignment and subsequently released him earlier this week.  In addition to Osuna, the Swallows seem to be close to landing another recent big leaguer, as multiple reports out of Japan have Astros right-hander Cy Sneed in talks with the Tokyo club.

Over four seasons and 705 plate appearances with the Pirates, Osuna hit .241/.280/.430 and saw significant playing time at first base, third base, and both corner outfield positions.  This versatility didn’t help him keep a job on the Bucs’ roster, however, as the DFA essentially represented an early non-tender.  Osuna was projected to earn $1.1MM in his first trip through the arbitration process.

An international signing out of Venezuela in 2009, Osuna has spent his entire 11-year pro career in the Pirates organization, so the move to NPB will represent a particularly notable change of scenery.  Osuna doesn’t turn 28 until December, so there’s plenty of time for him to get his career on track and then weigh continuing playing in Japan or perhaps exploring a return to North American baseball.

Sneed is also entering his age-28 season, and the righty has a 5.59 ERA, 2.93 K/BB rate, and 10.2 K/9 over 38 2/3 career innings with Houston at the Major League level.  Home runs have been a big issue for Sneed (1.9 HR/9), but he also had some bad luck, with a .367 BABIP during his brief time in the Show.

Sneed has worked only as a reliever during his two seasons with the Astros, usually appearing in a multi-inning capacity in 2019 before seeing a lot more single-inning duty this year.  He started 155 of his 216 career games in the minor leagues, so it’s possible he could get another look as a starter with the Swallows.

There haven’t been any reports of Sneed being designated or released by Houston, so it would seem that some type of deal will have to be worked out (or has been worked out) between the Astros and Swallows.  While Sneed is a controllable pitcher who has yet to even lose his rookie status, it could be that he just isn’t in the Astros’ long-term plans, so a move to NPB represents a new opportunity for the right-hander.

Yadier Molina Says Five Teams Have Shown Interest

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Yadier Molina has long stated that he wants to remain with the Cardinals, and he reiterated that hope in an interview with Laura A. Bonnelly V. of Mas Que Pelota (hat tip to Deportivo Z 101’s Hector Gomez).  However, Molina also revealed four other teams who have shown interest in his services — the Yankees, Mets, Padres, and Angels.

The two New York clubs had already been linked to Molina’s market, and the Cards have been in talks for seemingly close to a year about another contract to keep Molina in St. Louis.  The Angels and Padres are new additions to the hunt, however, and each represents an interesting possible landing spot for the nine-time Gold Glover.

At first glance, San Diego already seems set at catcher, with Austin Nola behind the plate, former top prospect Francisco Mejia slated as the backup and star prospect Luis Campusano making his MLB debut this season.  Signing Molina, however, would add immeasurably more experience and some veteran leadership to a team that plans to contend for a championship in 2021.  While Nola’s ability to catch makes him a particularly valuable utility asset, he can also play several other positions around the diamond; the Padres could use Nola in a somewhat normal backup catcher role to spell Molina once a week, and then otherwise deploy him at other positions.

Molina has expressed interest in a two-year contract, but even if Molina were to land such a deal, that wouldn’t be much of a roadblock to Campusano as the Padres’ eventual catcher of the future.  Mejia could be the odd man out if Molina joined the team, as Mejia has yet to show much over parts of four MLB seasons with the Indians and Padres.  That said, Mejia has only 362 career plate appearances, only just turned 25, and was a consensus top-35 prospect as recently as the 2018-19 offseason, so he would still be an interesting trade chip if the Padres made him expendable.

There are some obvious family ties for Molina in Anaheim, as his brother Jose is the Angels’ catching coach, and his other brother Bengie spent his first eight MLB seasons in an Angels uniform.  Yadier would also be reunited with his old Cardinals teammate Albert Pujols for the final season of Pujols’ ten-year, $240MM deal with the Halos.

Beyond the personal connections, Molina would also fill a need for Los Angeles since Max Stassi could miss the start of the season after undergoing hip surgery in October.  Depending on how quickly Stassi recovers, the Angels could start Molina (and use Anthony Bemboom as the backup) until Stassi is ready, and then potentially move into something closer to a timeshare, though it’s probably safe to guess Molina might end up getting the bulk of the action.

Blue Jays Interested In Brad Hand

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The Blue Jays’ long list of free agent targets has extended to the bullpen market, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets that Toronto was recently in touch with left-hander Brad Hand.  The former All-Star entered free agency after the Indians declined their $10MM club option on Hand’s services.

Hand was placed on waivers by the Tribe prior to that declined option, as Cleveland was looking to save paying Hand a $1MM buyout by exposing him to any team willing to make a claim.  All 29 teams (including Toronto) passed on Hand at the time, which is possibly indicative of how clubs are viewing spending on relief pitching this winter.  In an offseason where more or less every team will be dealing with payroll limitations, a $10MM average annual value even for an established star reliever like Hand could be a reach.

The Jays are thought to have more spending capacity than most teams this winter, however, which is part of the reason they have been so quick to explore so many of the top names available.  While they might not have been comfortable claiming Hand back in October, the Blue Jays would certainly seem to have a fit for Hand at the back of their bullpen.  With Ken Giles being out for much of the 2020 season, six different pitchers recorded saves for the Jays last year — Anthony Bass led the way with seven saves, but Bass is now a free agent himself.

Rafael Dolis and Jordan Romano represent a pair of intriguing in-house closer candidates, so as Morosi notes, signing an established closer like Hand may be more of a need than a want for Toronto.  That said, there is certainly value in being able to roll out multiple strong relievers, especially for a Jays team that has a few questions marks within its starting rotation.

Reds GM Nick Krall Discusses Pitching Staff

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Reds general manager Nick Krall recently discussed the team’s pitching outlook for 2021 with reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). The baseball operations head said he wouldn’t rule out a reunion with top free agent Trevor Bauer but reiterated that the parties “haven’t really had substantial conversations” to this point.

Should Bauer depart, the Reds have no shortage of arms who could compete for rotation spots behind Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle and Wade Miley. Recently-acquired Jeff Hoffman could be in that mix, as are Tejay Antone and Michael Lorenzen. Krall also pointed to former top prospect José De León, who struggled in five relief appearances last season but saw his velocity spike into the mid-90’s and remains on the 40-man roster. Brandon Bailey, acquired from the Astros last week, also has starting experience in the minors but is seen as more of a bullpen option for Cincinnati, Krall said.

Of course, there’s also been some discussion of a possible Gray trade. Krall didn’t deny reports the organization is listening to offers on Gray. He did, however, downplay the significance, suggesting those discussions were mostly due diligence. It certainly remains possible another team bowls the Reds over with an offer in the coming months, but Nightengale suggests the most likely outcome is that Gray stays put into next season.

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Braves’ Recent Signings

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The Braves have easily been the offseason’s most active team in the early going. Atlanta has made a pair of rotation additions, signing southpaw Drew Smyly to a one-year, $11MM deal and bringing in Charlie Morton for one year at $15MM.

Single-year terms has become a staple of the Alex Anthopoulos regime in Atlanta. They’ve had plenty of success with short-term additions of Josh Donaldson and Marcell Ozuna, but last winter’s Cole Hamels signing didn’t pan out as the left-hander’s year was derailed by injury. The front office decided to roll the dice on a new pair of veteran hurlers after coming up one game shy of a pennant in 2020.

Each of Morton and Smyly was indeed projected by the MLBTR staff to ink one-year deals this winter. However, both pitchers pulled in a bit more money than anticipated during what is widely expected to be a frigid offseason in the wake of teams suffering massive revenue losses. Morton picked up $7MM more than anticipated, while Smyly’s deal came in $6MM above expectation.

There are plenty of reasons the Braves’ front office decided to jump the market on these specific pitchers. Morton put up ace-caliber numbers from 2017-19 and rounded back into form down the stretch after a difficult start this past season. Smyly has battled injuries and inconsistency throughout his career but flashed a new level for the Giants in 2020. The 31-year-old showed massively improved raw stuff and generated whiffs in bunches en route to a 2.01 FIP. He’ll need to prove he can sustain those gains for more than 26.1 innings, but it’s easy to see the upside.

One other factor worth considering: the qualifying offer. Neither Morton nor Smyly has received one in the past, meaning they’ll be eligible for the QO next winter if they spend the entire season in Atlanta.  It’s not especially likely either player warrants a QO in eleven months. Morton would be entering his age-38 season and might not even wish to keep playing; Smyly’s a year removed from a 6.24 ERA season. But the same would’ve been true of Kevin Gausman a year ago, and he sufficiently rehabilitated his value during his platform year to earn a qualifying offer from the Giants this offseason.

So, how do MLBTR readers feel about the Braves’ two new additions? Grade each deal from the team’s perspective. (poll links for app users)

Grade The Charlie Morton Deal From The Braves' Perspective.
A 49.02% (7,469 votes)
B 40.80% (6,216 votes)
C 7.85% (1,196 votes)
D 1.50% (228 votes)
F 0.84% (128 votes)
Total Votes: 15,237

 

Grade The Drew Smyly Deal From The Braves' Perspective.
B 39.62% (5,541 votes)
C 37.19% (5,201 votes)
A 10.32% (1,443 votes)
D 9.82% (1,374 votes)
F 3.05% (426 votes)
Total Votes: 13,985

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