Finishing an even 81-81, the Phillies were a disappointment in 2019, in part because of their rotation. Their starting staff wound up 17th in the majors in ERA, 20th in K/BB ratio and 23rd in fWAR. The subpar production from the Phillies’ group of starters contributed to the team’s eighth straight year without a playoff berth, but the club has since since made a real effort to improve its rotation and better its chances of earning a postseason spot in 2020.
The Phillies’ biggest move of the winter was signing right-hander Zack Wheeler to a five-year, $118MM guarantee. He’s now near the top of a staff that’ll also include Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta from one through three. Right-hander Zach Eflin’s set to occupy the fourth position, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia, which leaves a handful of names vying for the last place in the Phillies’ rotation. Touted prospect Spencer Howard could make his debut this year, but the Phillies will bring him along slowly, so it doesn’t seem he’s in the running for a season-opening rotation spot. Here’s a look at those who are…
- Vince Velasquez, RHP: The 27-year-old Velasquez throws hard (around 94 mph), but his ERA has hung around the 5.00 mark in recent seasons. He worked out of the Phillies’ rotation and bullpen last year, striking out just under 10 batters per nine (against 3.11 BB/9) from the team’s rotation. Problem is that Velasquez didn’t do well to prevent runs in either role. He ended up with a 4.91 ERA/5.21 FIP over 117 1/3 innings.
- Nick Pivetta, RHP: Pivetta was an effective starter for the Phillies as recently as 2018, but the wheels came off last season. He concluded the year with an ugly 5.38 ERA/5.47 FIP in 93 2/3 innings, some of which came as a reliever, though he did continue to post an average fastball upward of 94 mph.
- Ranger Suarez, LHP: The 24-year-old Suarez didn’t make a single start for the Phillies last season, but he did turn in a 3.14 ERA/3.89 FIP with 7.77 K/9, 2.22 BB/9 and a 55.1 percent groundball rate in 48 2/3 innings from their bullpen. Suarez does have quite a bit of starting experience in various levels of the minors, though. He owns a 4.02 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 87 1/3 innings in Triple-A ball.
- Cole Irvin, LHP: Irvin, 26, made his major league debut last season, mostly working from the Phillies’ bullpen. He tossed 41 2/3 frames of 5.83 ERA/5.06 FIP ball with 6.7 K/9 and 2.81 BB/9. Irvin was far better as a Triple-A pitcher from 2018-19, during which he logged a 3.07 ERA with 6.9 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in 255 innings.
- Damon Jones, LHP: Jones, 25, was an 18th-round pick of the Phillies in 2017 who hasn’t gotten to the majors yet, but he does rank as their 20th-best prospect at MLB.com. However, Jones had difficulty across a 34-inning Triple-A debut last season, when he walked just under seven batters per nine. Overall, Jones has issued free passes to a bit under five hitters per nine in the minors, so despite a lofty K/9 (11.1), it’s difficult to imagine him opening the season in Philly’s rotation if he doesn’t significantly improve his control.
I love you guys.
F Rob Manfred!
Uhhh D Ray Morton
B5, you sunk my battleship!
CROSSFIRE!!!!!
My name is Richard Roma….
It has to be between Vinny V and Pivetta. Although I think I’d rather go with a 4 man rotation…
Right until you need that 5th or cause of injury! JS.
This franchise has waited so long for Velasquez and Pivetta to breakout. Time to move on from them.
Totally agree
I think PHI should try to trade for either Stripling or Boyd.
Who is better the sox or phillies? Serious question.
id go with the Sox, but i feel like removing the Sox DH at bats (say even it out by halving JD and JBJ) makes it VERY close
Connor, you forgot Ramon Rosso! (though everyone does)
Pivetta could be a legit stopper in the bullpen.
Let Velasquez and Irvin compete for the 5th spot and give Pivetta a shot at being the dude in the pen.
Same thing goes for Velasquez. W should’ve signed gio gonzalez for the $4.5 the Sox gave him. He’s gonna have a better season than arrieta who we’re paying $20 mill
I disagree. Arrieta is healthy and wants another contract. I think hes going to be good this year.
Velasquez works high pitch counts and gets hits hard the 3rd time through the order. They need to make him the Closer with his power stuff.
I’d rather see VV in the outfield than as my closer. Who are you watching? Lol
I don’t understand why these guys are getting so many chances, it’s insane. VV has had 5 seasons to put it together and can’t, and you’re saying make him the closer?? That’s insanity. I would never trust him to finish a one run game for me lol
Vince — who should never see an opponent’s lineup more than once — does profile out as a 7th or 8th inning guy. But Kenyans MacFail’s misguided belief in him as a starter is as much of an indictment of them as him.
*Klentak and MacFail….
Pivetta got rocked in the pen last year. He just stinks.
Pivetta is terrible and cant play anywhere. i could never rely on him in the pen.
He’s got better all-around stuff than VV does, but struggles with command and hangs too many meatballs up in the zone. If he can just focus on keeping the ball down a bit more, he can definitely generate more weak contact and some missed bats with his slider. His pitches have a decent amount of movement, unlike VV who isn’t fooling anyone with a 95mph straight fastball. Neither guy was all too happy about being tasked with bullpen duty last year, but I’d go with VV in the pen and Pivetta as the 5th starter to open the season. If VV is in the rotation, you pretty much have to plan on that day being used as an “opener” day anyway, as he can’t make it past the fourth inning. I agree with many on here that the franchise has been patient and has given them ample opportunities to prove themselves, but honestly, with no other studs ready to come in and challenge Pivetta/VV for that spot, what choice is there, really?
I think De Los Santos gets a further look. He didn’t impress much in his time in the Show before, but it was a pretty small sample size. Dude throws some of the easiest gas in the system, IMO, and has some deception in his secondary pitches.
So what makes the Phillies seem any better than last year? I don’t see it. 3rd place NL East.
But that’s better than they did last year…
Girardi
Wheeler
Gregorias
Mccutchen
Half the ridiculous amount of injuries
Last year the Phils had 1 good pitcher. This year they have 2 and maybe 3 if Arrieta is healthy. These guys fighting for a backend spot in the rotation? They all stink, but last year they were the Phillies 3rd and 4th starters. That’s how bad the team was last year. Not to mention the addition of Didi and a healthy McCutchen. There are still obvious holes, but they’re a much better team in 2020.
The Phillies are a decent team. If everything breaks right they could contend for a wild card, but winning the division still looks like a tall order. You never know, though.
2 of the 1st 3 camp battles Phillies related. Can’t wait to watch.
next up is our pen
Nick Pivetta will be the 5th starter and Vince Velasquez will be the Closer.
Surprised we dont hear Enyel de los Santos’ name more often as in the competition for the last rotation spot.
Jake Arrieta being healthy and productive this season is so crucial for the Phils.
Pivetta starting and VV closing sounds terrible! Yuck
its porbably going to be Vince given he was quietly managable as a starter later last year. not great, but not bad enough to take much heat.
I’m a big fan of Eflin. With a new coach, he’ll be just fine. Pivetta has had more chances than any player deserves. Velasquez has shown signs of brilliance, but never consistency. For the first time in his career, Arrieta just needs to be a number 3. Love Wheeler as a #2. Nola is an ace. Phillies pitching is certainly a question mark, but they won the world series with worse.
Phillies aren’t going anywhere with the Nats and Braves
We’ll see.The Phillies still need pitching,but they’ve upgraded their lineup.Both of the Braves and Nats lost MvP caliber bats from theirs.Phillies also upgraded their coaching staff.Pivetta started showing potential towards the end of 18,and then they replaced Kranitz with a rookie pitching coach,and pretty much every pitcher on the team went backwards.Eflin improved once he stopped listening to that pitching coach.If Price can get Eflin and Pivetta pitching solid consistently,the Phillies pitching could actually end up being decent.And people forget that they were in 1st when McCutchen went down.Not to many teams can survive losing 2/3rds of their outfield and just about their entire bullpen.
by July, the desperate Phillies will be offering anything to get Bryant in their lineup.
NL East
Nats…………….94 wins
Mets……………92 wins WC
Phillies………88 wins WC
Braves……….87 wins
Marlins………59 wins
Not sure 88 wins gets a WC in the NL this year. Arizona has improved significantly and look like a 90 win team if they stay healthy.
Not sure 88 wins gets a WC in the NL this year. Arizona has improved significantly and look like a 90 win team if they stay healthy.
I don’t understand how the Braves don’t get any credit. 87 wins for the Braves seems low. 88 for Phils seems about right.
Angels should trade for Piveta and Velasquez. Maybe a change of scenery would do them good. Doubt it would take all that much to acquire them with those numbers.
You forgot “the” in front of “problem is…”
Also why do you use so many inconsistent contractions? Like you say “problem is” then say “Elfin’s set” instead of “Elfin is set.” It reads really poorly… I’ve never seen anyone write like this. It smacks of a middle-aged father trying to sound cool and casual to his kids.
The word, “really” serves no purpose in written language. If anything, it showcases the fact that you have little understanding of how to use an adjective or adverb. You should probably try to stay away from that one in the future, especially when you’re trying to call people out on their grammar and diction choices.
I’m interested in seeing, if Brian Price as Pitching Coach has any effect on Pivetta or Velasquez. I still think that it’s a major mistake not to have at least one lefty in your starting rotation! We should have signed a free agent left-handed starting pitcher.
Pivetta is frustrating to watch. Loves to miss his spots and get rocked. Guy has good stuff and has more than enough talent to be a solid mid-rotation arm. Bad location kills him.
good lord Pivetta is bad. i wish he was gone 2 years ago.
I absolutely cannot watch him anymore.
Been a Phillies fan for over sixty years, and like Farmers Insurance, “I know a few things because I’ve I’ve seen a few things.”.
What I’ve seen from Pivetta, Velasquez and Irvin as starting pitchers is something I no longer want to see. There were FA pitchers like Alex Wood, Jimmy Nelson and Taijuan Walker who Klentak should have signed as low cost but high upside options.
Fact is, Klentak should have signed those three and maybe one or two others of the same ilk and hoped he’d strike gold with at least one of them.
When it comes to SP, I rank my Phillies below the Nats, Mets and Braves. And the bullpens those three teams have, especially the Mets, are deeper and more talented than ours. We only have one guy, Hector Neris, and the rest of the bullpen arms are a total crapshoot.
It’s no surprise the O/U on Phillies wins in 2020 is 84 1/2 and, thus far, 75% of the betting public wagered on the “Under” (New York Post- 2/17/20).
Sadly, I think we Phillies fans are looking at another plain vanilla type season this year. Good enough to compete most nights but not good enough to finish the race.
Phillies bullpen will be significantly better by virtue of guys returning from injury. Their starting pitching depth is certainly a problem. Their lineup can be scary good if Hoskins remembers how to hit. This team could surprise people, but it’s hard believing that in this tough NL East.
Yeah, I would have loved to take a chance on Taijuan Walker for sure, but in reality, is he going to outperform Pivetta this year? Not likely. I’m still a bit frustrated that the Phils didn’t match Texas’s surprisingly low package for Cory Kluber. That is a gamble worth taking and I think he’s got a great chance to rebound in Texas.
How many years do we wait to see these two get better? I’m so tired of seeing them pick at the corners and miss.Get some Balls and challenge the hitters!
Time to move on and give someone else a shot. I’m sorry to say I don’t have faith in bullpen either.You failed us Klentek
I think it’ll be Cole Irvin. He started out well for the first couple of games last year and the he rocked by the Cubs and was sent back down to the minors. After they brought him back up he never really had a defined role, and I think that was a big factor in his struggles.
I’m going to believe in the changes Pivetta has gone under this winter and think he’ll be the #5 on opening day. He more than anybody was effected by Young’s one size fits all style of coaching. Watching Pivetta in ‘18 under Kranitz is a completely different pitcher than ‘19 under Young. I’ll believe in the improvement of his changeup, better raw stuff than VV, and his change in winter preparations with guys like Flaherty, Syndergaard, and Giolito. Velasquez has looked like the same pitcher every year, he’s definitely a change of scenery candidate.
Ranger Suarez looked like a different pitcher when coming in relief instead of starting last year. He profiles more on the big league level as a reliever but it looks like every young pitcher Chris Young touched last year is getting a mulligan. Damon Jones is an interesting story and being an obscure, 19th round choice who developed his best pitch through YouTube videos would be great to read/write about, he’s another who profiles long term as a reliever. A lot of comps to form and arsenal of Andrew Miller. He has 2 legitimate pitches in his mid/high 90’s fastball and his slider which was borderline unhittable for much of last year. He’ll be interesting to keep an eye on. Cole Irvin is one of those guys whose a LOOGY or will bounce around the league, left handed who has below average stuff but high pitching IQ. If he’s pitching in a fly-ball friendly park like SF or SEA, he can probably garner decent results but he’s on the older end of prospects and doesn’t have the pinpoint control to overcome his lack of stuff for many scouts.
The irony is that this is probably nothing more than a battle for this one season. Barring a major breakout type season from any of these guys and any major injuries to the other starters, I think it’ll be a one year fix only. The Phillies have a lot of money coming off the books this winter and with a possibly deep free agent class of starters, I could see the Phillies letting Arrieta walk, move Howard into the #3-4 starter role. Sign a Middle/middle-high free agent pitcher to pitch behind Nola/Wheeler, and move Eflin to the #5 starter role.
Phillies just need to designate two “openers” like the Rays did and then mix in the current crop of question marks one time or so through the lineup. An opener, Pivetta through 3+ and Suarez. Next day, opener, Velesquez for 3+ then Irvin. Opener, righty, lefty and you are at your set up and closer.