It has been exactly two years since the Twins bolstered their roster with a trade that continues to benefit their rotation. On Feb. 17, 2018, the Twins acquired right-hander Jake Odorizzi from the Rays for shortstop prospect Jermaine Palacios.
Odorizzi had two years of control left at the time of the deal and was entering a season in which he’d earn a reasonable $6.3MM via arbitration. The trade brought an end to months of rumors centering on Odorizzi, who garnered interest from a variety of clubs leading up to the Twins’ acquisition. It was already the third trade in Odorizzi’s career, as the 2008 second-round pick of the Brewers previously went from the Brew Crew to the Royals in a 2010 blockbuster and from Kansas City to Tampa Bay in another headline-grabber two years later.
Then entering his age-28 season, Odorizziwas coming off a successful four-year run when he arrived in Minnesota. From his first full season in 2014 through 2017, he registered 120 starts and 668 1/3 innings (30 and 167 per year, respectively) of 3.81 ERA ball. ERA indicators such as FIP (4.23) and xFIP (4.33) weren’t as favorable, but they still painted him as a quality big league starter.
Odorizzi helped his cause by logging 8.31 K/9 against 2.96 BB/9 in his four full years as a Ray, but he generated groundballs at a meager 33.9 percent clip. He still managed to dodge home runs as a member of Tampa Bay, with which he gave them up on just over 11 percent of fly balls. But Odorizzi yielded long balls more than ever in 2017, when he surrendered them a career-worst 15.5 percent of the time. He also posted a relatively bloated walk rate (3.83 per nine, compared to 7.97 K/9) en route to a 4.14 ERA with a far worse 5.43 FIP/5.10 xFIP over 143 1/3 frames.
Although Odorizzi’s last season as a Ray was mediocre, he has rebounded as a Twin. Minnesota’s version has worked to a 3.78 ERA/3.88 FIP across 62 starts and 323 1/3 innings. He still isn’t inducing grounders that often, having done so at a 31.5 percent rate, yet has recorded sub-9 percent HR-to-FB marks in both seasons with the club. Odorizzi was especially effective in 2019, which went down as his first All-Star campaign. He amassed 159 innings of 3.51 ERA/3.36 FIP ball to help the Twins rack up 101 wins and take home their first AL Central title since 2010. Along the way, Odorizzi set career highs in K/9 (10.08, against 3.00 BB/9) and swinging-strike percentage (12.7), thanks in part to a noticeable increase in velocity. His fastball sat in the 90-91 mph range in previous years, but the mean jumped to 92.9 last season.
Once his personal-best campaign ended, Odorizzi looked likely to parlay his success with the Twins into a lucrative multiyear deal. Instead, though, he decided to accept the Twins’ $17.8MM qualifying offer, setting him up to stay with the hopeful World Series contenders for at least one more season. The Twins, for their part, are now in line to get three years of an important rotation cog for the affordable sum of $33.6MM (including 2018-19; Odorizzi made $9.5MM last season).
On the other hand, the Rays haven’t made out as well in the trade. Owing in part to its innovative opener strategy, the team has carried on just fine without Odorizzi, having combined for 186 wins since parting with him. The Rays made the playoffs last year and look like strong bets to challenge for the postseason again in 2020. However, it’s highly questionable whether they’ll ever receive any contributions from Palacios.
Twenty-one years old at the time of the trade, Palacios ranked as one of the Twins’ 30 best prospects during his time with the franchise, though he simply hasn’t panned out in the minors with the Rays. Palacios has reached Double-A ball in each of his two seasons with the Tampa Bay organization, but he has combined for a meek .192/.255/.272 line with three homers in 320 plate appearances at that level.
Always willing to experiment, the Rays did dabble in using Palacios as a pitcher in the minors last season, and he did show encouraging velocity during that brief stint on the mound. Still, it’s anyone’s guess whether he’ll make it to the majors in any capacity. Meanwhile, the Twins will go forward content with landing one of their most valuable starters for a prospect who hasn’t found his niche to this point.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
The Rays either make fantastic trades or get killed from being too cute. This was definitely a bad move on their part.
Pobody’s Nerfect.
Odo is probably enjoying playing in a stadium with fans instead of tens of thousands of empty seats at Tropicana.
K Pam…
Not sure how this killed them, trading odo was practically a Salary dump. He was entirely too expensive for what he was putting out. I think the Rays rotation is doing just fine without him lol. Look in hindsight and say if they are paying odo $10m they probably don’t have enough payroll space to pay Morton. So to say the Rays lost this trade is highly debatable. Getting that payroll free was the biggest part of this trade because every million means more to the Rays than anyone else.
That’s some mental gymnastics. $6.3 million is very little for a quality starting pitcher. The fact is they gave up a solid pitcher for nothing more than modest salary relief. Sure, the Rays will be just fine but they should’ve been able to get more.
Considering they were down to 1 or 0 starting pitchers at times in 2018, this would have been better off falling through no matter how you slice it lol
The rays play on a rolling 5 year budget. That money saved them for years to come not just that year, if you’re paying odo that Salary all of 18 you probably don’t have funds to sign Morton. The Rays have won way more games without him then with him so I’m not sure how you say they’re not better off, they clear the salary open a rotation spot for the young kids to come up and get their feet wet. Im not saying they won but they didn’t lose. They dumped him off for nothing you really think in a pure for talent trade that one kid is all they could’ve gotten anywhere? No. They dumped him and said eh we’ll take a flyer with this kid. They had 1 or 0 pitchers but still won a ton of games and that forced the opener strategy which is now a hit. No matter how you look at it there is no winner or loser, both teams benefited from a salary dump, that’s it
At the time quality was a stretch
The mental gymnastics you’re pulling here are insane.
They clearly lost this trade. It’s not debatable at all.
hey look, the Rays are mortal after all. some would tell you otherwise though. “oh they traded for Chris Davis. well, given their track record, i just have to give them the benefit of the doubt”
I was like, “When did we trade Odo?”
(“Deep Space Nine” character pictured in my mind)
RIP Rene…
Yeah I was like, on the move to the great link?
Clicked on article to figure out who “Odo” was. Thought he was a Japanese player I forgot about.
He still has to be kicking himself for taking the QO after seeing the insane deal Zack Wheeler got.
Extension on the horizon
Nice trade Falvey, I’ll give you credit on this one.
Odorizzi’s results have been way off from the expected. He seems to be an MLBTR darling of sorts, but the reason the Rays dealt him was obvious.
Odorizzi’s last 3 season FIP & xFIP with the Rays
2015 – 3.61 / 3.96
2016 – 4.31 / 4.44
2017 – 5.43 / 5.10
Odorizzi looked like a guy who probably wasn’t going to be worth a rotation spot, but would cost a fair bit of money. Odorizzi’s initial rebound with the Twins still game with a very high 4.87 xFIP.
Last year, Odorizzi’s ERA/FIP made absolutely zero sense. In a season with a juiced ball, With an xFIP of 4.33, Odorizzi allowed more hard contact than ever, but had an FIP of a full run lower at 3.36 and an ERA a near equally lucky 3.51. Odorizzi has not shown a unique ability to curb home run rates until going to the Twins.
Bottom line is Odorizzi seems to be a magician on the mound, but he has a limited supply of smoke and mirrors, even if he only pitches 5 innings at a time. When the wheels come off, he’s going to get destroyed.
Another example of why prospects are not sure things. You just never know.
…I’m not sure if you’re being serious here. Odorizzi was traded for a long shot, lower level prospect with some potential upside. The fact the long shot prospect didn’t work out is expected.