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Extension Candidates: NL East

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We don’t really know whether or to what extent extension talks will continue during the coronavirus hiatus. But as I wrote earlier today, it seems reasonable to think they’ll be explored. Some may already have advanced nearly to completion before the global pandemic intervened.

While we may have to wait to learn who the targets are and see what deals get done, there’s a silver lining: more time for rampant speculation! Okay, we’re not going to speculate here; rather, we’ll tick through some interesting possibilities on paper. Remember, we’ve seen an increasing prevalence of deals with less-experienced players (even some without any MLB service) and with new player types (early-career relievers and utilitymen).

In the present MLB environment, value is king and the old forms are fading. Here are some names to chew on from the NL East …

Braves

We all love Freddie Freeman and so do the Braves. He’s now within two years of free agency … but he’s also already 30 years of age. Knowing how this organization operates, it’d be a bit of a surprise to see it go big to keep him around. At the same time, this might be the best window to do so.

It’s likelier that the team will look into deals with young players after scoring huge value in deals with Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies last winter. The most obvious candidate is excellent youngster Mike Soroka, but there’s an argument for fellow starter Max Fried. Both are likely Super Two arbitration qualifiers next winter, so this could be a good time to achieve value. Mike Foltynewicz has some potential appeal despite his ups and downs, but he’s already earning big arb money and is just two years from the open market, so it’s tougher to see a deal that’d make sense for both sides. Perhaps there’s a scenario where a deal with shortstop Dansby Swanson makes sense, but he may still want to wait for an offensive surge that the team won’t pay for on spec.

In terms of more creative possibilities … none of the Braves’ relievers seem particularly likely. If the team is particularly smitten with Austin Riley and/or Kyle Wright, despite some early stumbles, it could chase the upside. Among the pre-MLB players, outfielder Cristian Pache seems the likeliest (highly speculative) possibility. He’s already on the 40-man roster, unlike fellow outfielder Drew Waters and pitcher Ian Anderson.

Marlins

There are a few fairly classic extension targets in Miami. Quality third baseman/outfielder Brian Anderson makes sense. Perhaps the team could make a run at backstop Jorge Alfaro if it believes in him. Both of those guys are 2+ service-class players, so they’ve got another year to wait for arbitration.

The same is true of interesting hurler Caleb Smith. Even less-experienced Miami starters could also be targeted, with Sandy Alcantara and perhaps Jordan Yamamoto representing interesting candidates.

There’s an argument to be made that the Marlins ought to consider some even bolder action. Their top position-player prospects — outfielder Monte Harrison and shortstop Jazz Chisholm — are each already on the 40-man roster, so there wouldn’t be any complications to locking them up. Risky? Sure, but the potential rewards are enormous. And they wouldn’t necessarily have to open the year on the MLB roster.

Mets

Pete Alonso stands out here. The lovable longball launcher may only be one season into his MLB career, but he has all the markings of a franchise face and community cornerstone. The team is obviously as smitten as are the fans, as it not only brought him up to open the 2019 season (rather than messing with his service time) but made him happy with a record sophomore salary.

There are some other conceivable position-player targets as well. Fellow breakout star Jeff McNeil is certainly of interest, though he’s already close to his 28th birthday and is under team control through his age-32 season. Pre-arb shortstop Amed Rosario could make sense after making strides in his second full season in the majors. The Mets obviously like J.D. Davis, though it probably makes sense to see if he keeps hitting and how the team’s needs develop with plenty of time before he’s a free agent. (Like McNeil, he’s under team control through 2024.)

There are also some candidates for new deals that are closer to free agency. It’s tough to imagine a deal with Noah Syndergaard given the ups and downs in the relationship and his sky-high ceiling; he’d surely require a monster payday to keep. But New York native Marcus Stroman seems cosy in his home city and might be amenable to a deal. As a walk-year player he’ll be seeking something like full market value. Outfielders Michael Conforto (4+ service class) and Brandon Nimmo (3+ service class) are certainly good enough players to approach. Want a bit of a wild card? How about righty Seth Lugo, who has turned into a heckuva reliever.

Nationals

The Nats’ situation is fairly simple to understand. The club has some glaringly obvious candidates, but it’s largely unknown whether it has attempted to start talks and (if so) whether it has any hopes of making a deal.

Juan Soto is the crown jewel. But he’s an exceptionally youthful superstar represented by Scott Boras. That’ll make it tough to get a deal done … especially if this eye-popping report is to be believed. Fellow outfielder Victor Robles isn’t as established or as certain, but perhaps there’s greater room there for the sides to find common ground.

Shortstop Trea Turner is the other most-obvious candidate. He’s 26 years of age and three full seasons from free agency. A high-quality all-around player who gamely battled through an injury, Turner could certainly be approached. He’s into arbitration with a big salary, though, so he has leverage. The Nats aren’t afraid to pay for quality, so it’s possible to imagine an agreement.

On the pitching front, there aren’t any rising young arms that seem primed for a deal. But with Max Scherzer two years from the open market … well, who knows? He is already 35 years of age, but perhaps the sides could line up on something that keeps the highly productive relationship going. After a challenging 2019 season, it’s likely that closer Sean Doolittle will be allowed to prove he’s still a top-flight reliever before getting his next deal, but talks can’t be ruled out.

Phillies

I don’t need to tell you the chief target for the Phils: it’s catcher J.T. Realmuto, who is now one season shy of free agency. The sides ended up in an arbitration hearing after failing to agree on a 2020 salary. While they say there aren’t any hard feelings, Realmuto — who’s 29 tomorrow — has also made clear he’s not interested in taking a team-friendly arrangement. We might’ve spent more time talking about first baseman Rhys Hoskins as a candidate, but that seems unlikely after his late-2019 swoon.

This is an organization that has proven willing to do a pre-MLB deal, having previously inked Scott Kingery. Top third base prospect Alec Bohm makes some sense, but only if the team is committed to bringing him up early (if not at the start of) the season. He doesn’t have a 40-man roster spot just yet. Top pitching prospect Adonis Medina does, but it’d be rather speculative to lock into him at this point.

What Happens To Extension Talks During The Coronavirus Hiatus?

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For the time being, MLB rosters are not locked. There’s still a trickle of transactional news. Odds are, we’ll see some sort of agreement to freeze roster movement — including, presumably, an orderly process for tying up any pending decisions and then ramping back up in advance of a hopeful resumption of play. Once that’s sorted, there could be a flurry of moves before the hold goes into effect.

But really, that’s beside the point when it comes to extensions. Deals can be negotiated at any time, even if it’s necessary to wait to make them official. Even if there’s a halt to transactions for a stretch, teams and agents and players can talk about their futures.

It’s hardly an optimal time to be broadcasting a major new contract, for a variety of reasons. But we are seeing NFL dealmaking happen as if the football season will begin as normal. And it probably behooves us all to keep one eye on the future.

In the baseball context, the major free agent action was already completed — Yasiel Puig excepted. But we were right smack dab in the middle of extension season when the coronavirus crisis hit. And there was some indication that, on the heels of a robust free agent market, we were due for a varied and voluminous slate of new deals.

In some respects, it’s the close in-person proximity of Spring Training that makes extensions so prevalent. But it’s also a function of MLB’s calendar, most of the rest of which is occupied by the playing of games or execution of other business.

Under the present circumstances, there’s quite a strong case for utilizing the time off to consider longer pacts. The time pressure of the coming season has been released momentarily, but it’ll eventually ramp back up and help finalize talks. But whatever truncated second spring ultimate occurs later this year isn’t likely to represent an optimal time for long-term negotiations. Teams will be slammed with season preparations and unusual logistical demands.

If there’s to be another run of new deals, it’ll likely emerge from prior talks that continue during the present lull, even absent the ready ability to chat face-to-face. But the halt to sports also injects potentially massive uncertainty that could itself impact negotiations. Players’ 2020 salaries are already set, but they’re presumably not going to be paid out in full. Some players may be more inclined to secure their financial futures; some teams may wish to avoid long-fuse risks while looking ahead to clogged revenue streams.

No doubt the onset of the coronavirus shutdown halted many negotiations in mid-stream. Perhaps some deals were already reached in principle before the league went on ice. In all periods of uncertainty, there’s added risk and added opportunity. It will be interesting to see how players and teams approach extensions over the coming months — whether or not a moratorium on formal dealmaking forces us to wait for the outcomes.

 

Check Out Pro Football Rumors For NFL Offseason Updates

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None of North America’s major sports leagues are currently playing games, but the NFL is in the midst of one of its biggest weeks of the year, and Pro Football Rumors is covering all the action.

The NFL’s free agency period kicked off on Monday with a series of agreements on major deals, including the Texans trading DeAndre Hopkins to the Cardinals, the Vikings sending Stefon Diggs to the Bills, and Amari Cooper reaching a $100MM deal with the Cowboys.

Tuesday began with Tom Brady dropping a bombshell, announcing that his time with the Patriots has come to an end. Brady’s eventual landing spot is one of the biggest NFL offseason questions still to be answered, but Pro Football Rumors is keeping tabs on every potential roster move, big and small.

If you’re suffering from hot stove rumor withdrawal and you’re an NFL fan, be sure to follow PFR (@pfrumors on Twitter) for all the latest offseason updates.

MLBPA Expands Stipend; Minor-Leaguers Remain In Flux

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With a worldwide pandemic halting the run-up to the regular season, we’ve seen Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association engaged on a variety of complicated subjects. The sheer uncertainty of the situation has created major concerns for just about everyone involved in the game — some of whom are much better situated than others to take care of themselves.

The MLBPA has acted to provide emergency funds to certain players who are now staring at a potential loss and delay of wages. It has initiated a program to provide a $1,100 weekly stipend to players that depart camp.

That effort was initially rather limited but has now been broadened to cover a wider class of MLB players. Per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter), the MLBPA will now offer the sum through April 9th to all players who were on a 40-man roster as of March 13th of this year, even if they were already on optional assignment. Also included are all non-roster invitees to big league camps who accrued at least one day of MLB service in the 2019 season.

Quite a few big leaguers have no real need for that kind of support, though it’s not fair to paint with overly broad strokes for the entire league. Younger and/or less-established players may not have accrued significant earnings at all to this point of their careers.

That said, the effort doesn’t address the biggest player-related need in the game: that of the many minor-leaguers who have now been thrust into quite a tough position. Those players were unexpectedly sent home rather than continuing to participate in Spring Training. And they’ve been counting on their earnings to start back up again with the new season, which now won’t occur for some time.

It’s an unusual situation, but these are unusual times. Emily Waldon of The Athletic has become an unlikely nexus point for minor-leaguers in need of some form of assistance or job opportunity and those willing to help them out. (See, e.g., this Twitter link.)

Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports on the difficulties faced by those non-40-man players. The matter is on the table to be addressed between the league and union, he says, but the salary situation of big league players is first on the docket.

The Rays have promised their minor-leaguers a $400 weekly stipend through the end of the month. The Mets and Dodgers have done the same, per Kyle Glaser of Baseball America. Some other teams are working to do the same, per Glaser, but it is obviously a situation that seems to demand leaguewide action.

It’s an especially tough spot for these hopeful future big leaguers, Dougherty explains, because they aren’t sure what type of employment to seek given the possibility of the season re-starting. The always difficult tradeoffs of immediate practicalities and long-term dreams are already proving tougher than ever.

One might hope that the league and union act quickly to provide at least temporary relief for these players. It’s one of several major problems with numerous dimensions. And that’s all before considering the fact that many stadium workers and other seasonal employees in big league cities are now looking at lost anticipated earnings with the season on hold.

Coronavirus Updates: Draft, ASG, Workouts, Scouting

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We now know that the COVID-19 pandemic may delay the start of the Major League Baseball season until at least June or July. As of now, however, the league hasn’t indicated whether it will postpone the June 10-12 draft or the July 14 All-Star Game at Dodger Stadium, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. Meanwhile, the league and the union have been negotiating on payment for the players during this shutdown. MLB proposed “an initial lump payment” to the players to make up for missed checks early in the season, and then the MLBPA countered that offer, Sherman writes. It’s unclear how much progress the two sides have made in those talks, though. The league plans to turn its attention to payment for minor leaguers and stadium and team personnel once it’s through ironing out how to proceed with players who are on 40-man rosters, per Sherman.

  • Yankees players have been staying in Florida to work out, but manager Aaron Boone admitted Monday that might not be feasible anymore, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com relays. Boone, whose organization had a minor leaguer test positive for coronavirus last week, acknowledged that “it’s getting more and more challenging” to carry out present plans, adding that he’ll likely return to New York in the next couple days. It remains to be seen whether members of the club will follow suit in returning to their homes, but if they do, Boone’s confident they’ll be able to stay in shape by working out on their own.
  • Mariners players have been exiting their facility in Arizona, according to Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. The M’s are down to 28 players remaining there, and they sent all of their non-roster invitees home.
  • Count former Mets general manager and current Athletics consultant Sandy Alderson among those dumbfounded that independent workouts are still going on at all. He expects them to end in the immediate future. “I would be surprised if anybody is in camp after the next two or three days, because No. 1 it doesn’t make any sense from a baseball standpoint, if the season is not going to start until maybe June 1,” Alderson told Mike Puma of the New York Post. “And secondly it doesn’t make any sense in terms of setting an example for the rest of the population to have a bunch of athletes running around playing catch. That does not constitute social distancing.”
  • MLB has ceased all scouting activity, both foreign and domestic, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. That’s hardly a surprising development with just about all sports on hiatus at this point. Even in-home and in-person visits have been prohibited, Rosenthal notes.

MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Mets?

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It wasn’t an especially aggressive offseason for the Mets, a team that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2016, but perhaps it didn’t need to be. After all, even though the franchise, its ownership and general manager Brodie Van Wagenen are often maligned, team brass has assembled a rather talented roster. Last year’s Mets amassed 86 wins – the sixth-highest total in the National League – and are set to bring back their best contributors from then if and when the season gets underway.

Of course, a pair of award winners are at the forefront of the roster. Right-hander Jacob deGrom has earned back to back National League Cy Youngs. There’s little reason to believe he or first baseman Pete Alonso, who pounded 53 home runs in 2019 to earn NL Rookie of the Year honors, are going to let up. And there’s plenty of proven talent supporting that pair, with an appealing rotation (albeit one that lost Zack Wheeler to the division-rival Phillies in free agency) that will consist of some combination of deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, Rick Porcello, Steven Matz and Michael Wacha.

Meanwhile, a position player cast that finished 2019 seventh in wRC+ and 11th in fWAR is returning the same key complements to Alonso. Hitting machine Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto (currently down with an oblique strain, but he could be fine by the time the season starts), Brandon Nimmo, J.D. Davis, Dominic Smith, Wilson Ramos and Amed Rosario haven’t gone anywhere. Neither has potential Hall of Fame second baseman Robinson Cano, for whom there appears nowhere to go up after a shockingly poor, injury-marred first season as a Met. And Yoenis Cespedes seems to be progressing after three straight injury-ruined campaigns of his own.

Cano and Cespedes make for potential rebound candidates, as do multiple members of a Mets bullpen that fell on its face a year ago despite Van Wagenen’s efforts to improve it during the previous winter. Edwin Diaz, who joined the Mets from the Mariners in the Cano blockbuster that has blown up in New York’s face so far, and big-money signing Jeurys Familia were terrible. Considering their strong track records, it seems fair to expect some sort of bounce-back effort this season. Likewise, former Yankees star Dellin Betances – who came to the Mets in free agency – is also seeking a return to form. But that’s on account of injuries that all but wiped out his 2019, not any kind of decline in performance. The hope is that those three will get back to normal and join Seth Lugo, Justin Wilson, Robert Gsellman, Brad Brach and likely Wacha to comprise a dominant bullpen. There’s loads of risk in that bunch, but the upside is evident.

It was an odd winter for the Mets, who had to can rookie skipper Carlos Beltran before he ever managed a game, thanks to his role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal. To the chagrin of many Mets fans, they also saw a potential sale of the franchise fall apart. Off-field turmoil aside, Beltran’s replacement, Luis Rojas, looks to be inheriting a good situation. However, it should be a dogfight in the NL East, which could feature as many as four contenders (the Braves, Nationals and Phillies are the others).

Before the coronavirus turned the world on its head, back when baseball was supposed to consist of 162 games, PECOTA projected 87.9 wins and a division title for the Mets. Normally, it would be customary to ask how many victories you expect them to rack up, but a 162-game season is a pipe dream at this point. Therefore, let’s take the simpler route: If a baseball season does happen, will the Mets make the playoffs?

(Poll link for app users)

This Date In Transactions History: The Return Of Andy Pettitte

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It was on this date eight years ago that one of the members of the Yankees’ famed Core Four came out of retirement to return to the mound. Left-hander Andy Pettitte rejoined two other players from that group (longtime teammates Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera) in the Bronx, agreeing to what proved to be a bargain contract for the club. It was a minor league deal worth up to $2.5MM – money well spent for the Yankees.

Pettitte retired after the 2010 season, his 16th in the majors and his 13th as a Yankee, but felt the urge to pitch again while working as a spring guest instructor for the team prior to the 2012 campaign. As one of the most accomplished pitchers in the history of the organization, the Yankees were happy to welcome back Pettitte, then 39 years old, even though they already had six other arms (CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda, Hiroki Kuroda, Phil Hughes, Freddy Garcia and Ivan Nova) for five rotation spots. But it turns out that they needed Pettite that year. Pineda didn’t pitch after succumbing to a torn labrum following the Pettitte reunion, while Garcia and Nova turned in ineffective seasons.

As someone who signed so close to the regular season, Pettitte took time to ramp up before his return to the mound became official. He didn’t make his 2012 debut until May 13, a 6-2 loss to Seattle in which he yielded four earned runs on 6 1/3 innings.

Pettitte was encouraged afterward, though, saying: “I just cannot believe how comfortable this is for me. I don’t know how to explain it.”

Indeed, while Pettitte’s first game back didn’t produce ideal results for him or his team, he returned to his old ways from that point forward. Pettitte tossed eight shutout frames five days later in a 4-0 win over the Reds. He continued to throw well in the coming weeks, but Pettitte fractured his left fibula in a June 27 start versus Cleveland and didn’t get back until the end of September. Pettitte posted three solid outings to conclude the season, ending it with 12 starts and 75 1/3 frames of 2.87 ERA ball with a lofty grounder percentage of 56.3 and 8.24 K/9 against 2.51 BB/9. His stellar performance contributed to a 95-victory, AL East-winning campaign for the Yankees, who edged out the Orioles by two games.

The Yankees couldn’t have realistically asked for more out of Pettitte, but he provided it in October. Typically impervious to the pressure of the postseason, Pettitte combined for 13 2/3 innings of five-run pitching in two starts (one against Baltimore, the other versus Detroit). The Yankees did get by the Orioles in an ALDS that went the distance, but the Tigers overwhelmed them in the ALCS in a four-game sweep.

While Pettitte was unable to claim his sixth World Series title in his first season back, he fared so nicely that it convinced him to stick around for one more year. The Yankees had to pay up that time, inking the three-time All-Star to a $12MM guarantee, but they also got their money’s worth in 2013. Even though New York finished 85-77 and didn’t qualify for the playoffs, Pettitte’s going-out party was one of the highlights of the team’s year. He put the exclamation point on his career with a complete game, one-run performance in Houston (where he pitched from 2004-06) in his last game.

Thanks to Pettitte’s decision to end his first retirement on March 16, 2012, he spent two years further cementing himself as one of the top pitchers in the Yankees’ storied history.

Recent Optional Assignments Of MLB Veterans

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We don’t cover option decisions as a matter of course, especially during Spring Training. But … it’s a quiet news stretch when it comes to baseball transactions. And in some cases, we have seen recent decisions on optional assignments that reflect teams’ intentions on their (eventual) Opening Day rosters. After all, players optioned in mid-March were obviously not seen as having a real shot at an active roster spot.

Here’s a non-exhaustive list of players optioned over the past week, per the MLB.com transactions page, featuring those with prior big league experience:

9 NL Central Pitchers Looking For Bounce-Back Years

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Nobody knows when the 2020 Major League Baseball season will begin, but we can still look forward to its start. With that in mind, we’ll continue our series on potential bounce-back players from each division, this time focusing on notable National League Central pitchers whose production fell off from 2018 to ’19.

Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Cubs:

Undoubtedly among the greatest relief pitchers in baseball history, Kimbrel’s numbers careened off a cliff in his first season as a Cub. In fairness, though, Kimbrel didn’t have a normal offseason before finally joining the Cubs on a three-year, $43MM contract. The 31-year-old flamethrower went without a deal until the first week June, and he never really got on track after debuting later that month. Kimbrel battled elbow issues and threw just 20 2/3 innings, over which he allowed 15 earned runs on 21 hits (including a whopping nine home runs) and 12 walks. Although Kimbrel did strike out 30 hitters and continue to throw upward of 96 mph, it wasn’t enough to overcome the other problems. Considering what the Cubs have invested in him, not to mention the losses their bullpen suffered in free agency, it’s a must for him to return to form this year.

Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, Cubs:

Jeffress was a lights-out part of the Brewers’ bullpen in 2018, but last season represented an enormous step backward. In fact, it went so badly for Jeffress that the Brewers – then vying for a playoff spot – released him during the first week of September. Jeffress wound up with a ghastly 5.02 ERA in 52 innings and saw his typical fastball go from 95.3 mph in 2018 to 93.8. He also lost 4 percent on his swinging-strike rate, almost 10 percent on his strikeout rate, and 8 percent on his groundball rate. Consequently, he was only able to secure an $850K guarantee in free agency.

Trevor Bauer, RHP, Reds:

Bauer went from one of the absolute best pitchers in the sport two years ago to someone whom the opposition shelled after the Reds acquired him from the Indians at last summer’s trade deadline. The 29-year-old kept throwing hard, averaging about 95 mph on his fastball, but yielded 57 hits (including 12 home runs) en route to a 6.39 ERA in 56 1/3 innings as a Red. Between the two teams, his combined 4.48 ERA and 4.34 FIP were each more than two runs worse than the production he logged in 2018. Bauer also experienced an almost 7 percent fall in groundball rate, and he wasn’t any kind of Statcast hero, ranking near the middle of the pack in multiple important categories.

Pedro Strop, RHP, Reds:

Strop, 34, had several terrific years with the Cubs, but last season wasn’t one of them. His average fastball dropped by 1.5 mph (93.6), his walk rate spiked to its highest level since 2012 (4.32 BB/9) and he gave up more home runs than ever (1.3 per nine). All of those factors helped lead to career-worst run prevention totals for Strop (4.97 ERA/4.53 FIP), which came at a less-than-ideal time for the pending free agent. Strop’s subpar output last year stopped him from cashing in on the open market, but if he can rebound, the Reds will have a bargain on their hands at $1.825MM.

Chris Archer, RHP, Pirates:

MLBTR’s Steve Adams just took a more in-depth dive into the surprising struggles Archer has gone through as a Pirate. The former Rays standout has been a shell of himself since Pittsburgh acquired him from Tampa Bay in a July 2018 trade that looks incredibly lopsided in the Rays’ favor. But not all hope is lost for Archer, who – at the Pirates’ behest – grew too reliant on a sinking fastball that the opposition hammered. Archer bagged the pitch last summer and proceeded to post far better numbers during the second half of the season than he did before then, making the 5.19 ERA/5.02 FIP, 4.14 BB/9, 1.88 HR/9 and 36.3 percent groundball rate he put up over 119 2/3 innings look somewhat deceiving.

Derek Holland, LHP, Pirates:

Holland resurrected his career two years ago in San Francisco, only to fall apart between the Giants and Cubs last season. While Holland made 30 starts in 2018, he had such a rough time a year ago that he spent most of it in the bullpen, where he amassed 43 of 51 appearances. The 33-year-old limped to a 6.10 ERA/6.08 FIP with 8.75 K/9, 4.8 BB/9 and 2.13 HR/9, forcing him to settle for a minor league contract with Pittsburgh in the offseason.

Andrew Miller, LHP, Cardinals:

The first season as a Cardinal didn’t go well for Miller, whom they signed to a two-year, $25MM pact beforehand. The majority of his numbers, including a 4.45 ERA/5.19 FIP in 54 2/3 innings, went the wrong way. Miller, who barely walked more than one hitter per nine during his career-best season back in 2016, issued almost four and a half free passes last season. Moreover, he endured a 10.5 percent dip in groundball rate from 2018 and saw his home run-to-fly ball rate skyrocket to 21.6 percent. The 34-year-old has since dealt with some health troubles this spring, though the latest update on his status was encouraging.

Corbin Burnes, RHP, Brewers:

Burnes had a promising debut from Milwaukee’s bullpen in 2018. However, the spin rate darling’s propensity for surrendering homers proved to be his undoing last season. Burnes, 25, gave them up on 38.6 percent of fly balls, leading to an awful 8.82 ERA/6.09 FIP in 49 innings and canceling out a strong strikeout rate of 12.86 per nine and a borderline elite swinging-strike percentage of 17.2.

Corey Knebel, RHP, Brewers:

Knebel’s on the list for injury reasons, not ones related to performance. He was a huge piece of the Brewers’ relief corps from 2017-18, but Tommy John surgery kept him off the mound a season ago. Knebel, who underwent the procedure just under 12 months ago, had been lining up for an early May return before the game shut down, according to Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. So, the longer baseball’s hiatus last, the better Knebel’s odds are of returning to his past role as a Brewers contributor over a full season.

Rebound Candidate: Chris Archer

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There’s little getting around the fact that the Pirates set back their franchise by years when trading Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and Shane Baz for Chris Archer prior to the 2018 trade deadline. The move had a cascading series of implications for the organization and quite likely contributed to the ousting of GM Neal Huntington, manager Clint Hurdle and pitching coach Ray Searage to varying extents. The Archer trade was bad. It cannot be undone. But is Archer a sunk cost? I’m not so certain of that.

When looking at Archer’s struggles in Pittsburgh, it’s worth noting that the Pirates asked him to dust off a two-seamer/sinker that he hadn’t thrown since 2014. The Pirates’ fascination with two-seamers was nothing new; it was a pitch they preferred all their pitchers to incorporate into their arsenals — sometimes to their detriment. Glasnow himself opened up about this when he called the Pirates “behind the times” in a revealing interview with the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Jason Mackey — a piece that serves as a rather damning indictment on the prior regime in Pittsburgh, which was once renowned for unearthing hidden pitching value.

Chris Archer | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

A quarter of the pitches Glasnow threw with the Pirates in 2017 were sinkers. He scrapped the pitch entirely with Tampa Bay. Nearly 18 percent of the pitches Gerrit Cole threw in five seasons with Pittsburgh were sinkers; he threw 13 total sinkers in 2019 with the Astros and nearly won a Cy Young Award. Glasnow also indicated that the Pirates emphasized pitching down and in rather than at the top of the strike zone; a look at Jordan Lyles’ heatmaps reveals that when deviated from that gameplan upon being traded to the Brewers he found quite a bit more success.

This isn’t to say the two-seamer-heavy approach never worked. As Mackey observed in his interview, there were indeed success stories — Francisco Liriano and J.A. Happ among them. But teams have increasingly moved away from shoehorning every pitcher on their roster into the same organizational pitching philosophy when it’s clearly not working for a certain pitcher.

To the Pirates’ credit, they eventually did allow Archer to scrap his sinker in 2019 — and the overall results still weren’t great. He posted a 4.65 ERA in 12 sinker-free starts. But looking beyond ERA, there was more reason to be optimistic. Archer posted a 5.85 ERA, a 6.07 FIP and a 4.93 xFIP while incorporating the sinker into his repertoire until mid-June of this past season. Upon ditching that pitch? He sat at 4.42/3.78/3.70 in those same measures. He also induced substantially more swings and misses and seemed to control his arsenal more effectively:

K% BB% First-Pitch-Strike% K-BB% SwStr% Chase%
Archer w/ sinker 23.9% 11.4% 58.1% 12.5% 12.3% 29.8%
Archer w/out sinker 31.2% 9.3% 65.4% 21.9% 13.7% 34.0%

Once he scrapped the sinker, Archer walked fewer hitters, worked ahead in more counts and generally looked like a superior pitcher. Archer also saw his home-run rate plummet from 2.37 HR/9 to 1.31 HR/9 once he changed up his pitch mix — and it’s important to point out that homers were never a major problem for him prior to this past season’s juiced ball environment. Archer entered the 2019 season with a career 1.01 HR/9 mark and saw that number skyrocket to 1.88 on the year. Again, his sinker contributed; about one percent of Archer’s non-sinker offerings were hit for home runs. Five of the 203 sinkers he threw wound up going over the fence (2.5 percent).

We’re looking at a small sample, but it’s clear that Archer’s sinker was an awful pitch for him in 2019. He might not be an ace even if he goes back to a full season of four-seamers, but the non-sinker version of Archer in 2019 was a perfectly passable pitcher. And if the ball reverts to a more traditional composition and Archer’s home-run rate backs down toward his career levels, he might even look more like the pitcher the Pirates hoped they were acquiring when surrendering Glasnow, Meadows and Baz in that deal. (Alas, even if that does come to pass, it’s exceedingly difficult to imagine the scales of the deal tipping all the way back to Pittsburgh’s direction.)

The manner in which Archer is able to capitalize on what seems likely to be a four-seam-heavy approach will be critical for the fate of both Archer himself and the Pirates. Archer’s $9MM option for 2020 was something of a no-brainer given the hefty $1.75MM buyout and the fact that his contract contained a second club option. The option decision on him this winter is far less in his favor. Pittsburgh (or more likely another club) will hold an $11MM option over Archer with a much smaller $250K buyout. The 2020 option decision was a net $7.25MM call, but it’ll be a $10.75MM call next winter. That’s probably not getting picked up if he looks more like a rebound candidate than a bona fide big league starter.

Archer’s performance, of course, also has significant impact for the Pirates’ future. If he’s throwing well early in the season — whenever that may be — and looks like he’s back to his old ways (or, ideally, better than ever), Archer will become a premier trade chip. If he looks more like first-half Archer from 2019, the Bucs might simply look to dump his salary in a “take what you can get” type of deal.

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