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Offseason In Review: New York Mets

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The Mets doubled down on their roster core and added some risky but upside-laden pitchers.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Whatever you may think about the Mets and GM Brodie Van Wagenen, you can’t accuse them of being uninteresting. Van Wagenen has toned down some of the public bravado he exhibited in his first offseason at the helm, and didn’t oversee any wild blockbusters or major spending outlays this winter, but still delivered a fairly bold slate of moves — at least, within the organization’s own limitations.

There’s ample upside in the new arms that the team added. It’s probably not worth considering the earlier ceilings of Porcello and Wacha as reasonably plausible scenarios, but it’s not hard to imagine either or both functioning as quality mid-rotation types. Likewise, it’ll be a tall order for Betances and Brach to revisit their peak seasons, but even ~75% of what they’ve shown at their best would be a nice outcome for the New York org. You could say the same for Marisnick, who has one above-average offensive season under his belt and a track record of excellent glovework.

Sure, each of those guys comes with an equivalent downside scenario. Porcello and Brach allowed more than five earned runs per nine in 2019. Wacha and Betances come with major health questions. Marisnick’s career 79 wRC+ actually lags that of the man he’ll effectively replace, fellow defensive standout Juan Lagares. But still, for a cumulative investment of twenty-five million bucks, it’s not a bad value play at all.

All that said … wanna guess which NL East team spent the least this offseason? Nope, not the Marlins. It’s the Mets, even in a winter in which they realized enormous cost savings in the final year of their agreement with Yoenis Cespedes. Let’s revisit what I wrote at the outset of the offseason:

So, unless the Wilpon ownership group is preparing to commit more cash to the cause, the front office is going to have to get very creative. The Mets roster does have quite a bit of talent, but it’s also the same essential unit that fell short this year and could certainly stand to be supplemented in several areas. 

It’s clear how important the Cespedes savings were. Originally promised $29.5MM before suffering a pair of ankle injuries in an accident on his ranch, the veteran slugger is now promised just $6MM. The difference accounts for virtually all of the team’s spending … sort of.

Odds are the Mets will end up being obligated for more than that amount — on a pro-rated basis, anyway, depending upon how the league and union sort out the complicated contractual questions posed by the season delay. But the team will for the most part be in control of its incentive pay and thereby gain some assurance of a return on it. Cespedes earns another $5MM so long as he returns to the active roster (or hits the IL with a different injury); he can also tally another $9MM through plate appearance incentives. Wacha’s deal includes a load of upside if he’s healthy and throwing well enough to keep getting the ball.

That flexible situation was designed to help the club deal with a rather high-variance roster. And to be fair, the Wilpons did sign off on a club-record payroll, though it’s a modest year-over-year move from just under to just over $160MM (that’s not including whatever is still owed to David Wright by the team, the details of which aren’t known, or any incentive money).

Going back to that pre-season piece I wrote … the very next lines:

There’s no true center fielder. We all know how the bullpen looked in 2019. The rotation is missing one piece and still also needs depth. 

Well, there you have it. The club checked each of those boxes with the above-cited MLB signings and trades. But doing so on a budget meant sacrificing in several regards, and left a roster that has some clear pathways to success but also some real questions.

Spending more or striking a trade might’ve provided a clearer answer in center field. Instead, the Mets added a player in Marisnick who may best function as a platoon piece against left-handed pitching and late-game defender/baserunner. This could work out fine — if Brandon Nimmo is able to produce at a high level at the plate (which seems likely) and provide at least palatable glovework (less clear).

The outfield mix contains some good pieces. Michael Conforto is another strong lefty bat; southpaw swinger Dominic Smith off the bench is quite the luxury. J.D. Davis was a beast last year. Cespedes may now be ready for a delayed Opening Day. It’s just … those pieces don’t really seem to be from the same puzzle. The Mets seemingly declined to sacrifice long-term value (their assessment of it, anyway) to compose a cleaner 2020 picture. Smith and Davis aren’t the most comfortable fits, but the Mets understandably love their bats. The club will bet that talent and depth will produce success in one way or another — which, honestly, doesn’t sound so crazy but could perhaps fail to function in practice.

It’s a much simpler situation in the infield, where the Mets have no choice but to hope for a bounce back from Robinson Cano, continued growth of double-play partner Amed Rosario, and further excellence from Jeff McNeil (who’ll step in at third base) and lovable new star Pete Alonso. Behind the dish, the Mets will hope that Wilson Ramos can sustain some improvements in meshing with the pitching staff late in 2019 and keep Tomas Nido as the reserve. Utility candidates include Luis Guillorme, Eduardo Nunez, Max Moroff, and Jed Lowrie — if he’s able to get back to health.

There’s an awful lot of potential pop in that assembly of bats, though there’s also potential for offensive variance and the defensive picture isn’t as compelling. But the potential for swings between greatness and disaster is all the more evident in the pitching staff.

Nobody is going to complain about a starting unit fronted by the game’s top pitcher (Jacob deGrom), one of its highest-upside hurlers (Noah Syndergaard), and an accomplished but still-youthful sidekick (Marcus Stroman). With talented lefty Steven Matz now joined by Porcello and Wacha, there’s an appealing back-end mix. But several of these hurlers have had health issues of late and the depth falls off considerably from that point. Still, this remains the Mets’ chief strength. There’s obvious potential for this to be the game’s best rotation.

The toughest place on the roster to project is undoubtedly the bullpen. Rewind a few years, and you’d be looking at an all-out monster of a unit featuring some of the game’s best short-stint hurlers in Betances, Brach, Edwin Diaz, and Jeurys Familia. That’s not all. Seth Lugo was outstanding last year, lefty Justin Wilson was good as well (and has been better in the past), and Robert Gsellman has a track record that suggests he can be a solid contributor. It’s just that … it’s hard to ignore the terrible outcomes (or lack of innings) produced by much of this group last year. The Mets have a lot of cash invested in this unit and can’t be sure they have up-and-coming arms or available resources to patch any holes that arise.

2020 Season Outlook

The Mets look about as good on paper as any team in the division. And there’s arguably a greater ceiling with this club than its chief competitors. That said, it’s precisely the sort of competitive position where some added expenditures might’ve gone a long way. And it’s not clear whether ownership will give the front office spending capacity to bolster the roster if it’s in position to add at mid-season (if that’s even an option in a truncated campaign). Mets fans will have to hope for the best … all while waiting to see what comes of an uncertain ownership situation following the collapse of an agreed-upon sale of the franchise.

How would you grade the Mets’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

MLB Further Delays Opening Day In Accordance With CDC Recommendations

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Following last night’s recommendations from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Major League Baseball has issued a new statement confirming that Opening Day will be delayed considerably later than the original April 9 date:

Today Commissioner Robert D. Manfred, Jr. conducted a conference call with the 30 Clubs of Major League Baseball. Following last night’s newly updated recommendations from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) restricting events of more than 50 people for the next eight weeks, the opening of the 2020 regular season will be pushed back in accordance with that guidance.

MLB will keep fans updated on decisions regarding plans for the 2020 schedule in the days and weeks ahead. The Clubs remain committed to playing as many games as possible when the season begins. We will continue to monitor ongoing events and undertake the precautions and best practices recommended by public health experts, and urge all baseball fans to follow suit. MLB extends its best wishes to all the individuals and communities who have been impacted by the coronavirus.

Eight weeks from the CDC’s new guidelines last night will push things back until May 10, although there’s no indication that that’s a firm target date. Players will surely need a second installment of Spring Training to ramp back up for game readiness, and the restrictions on the size of gatherings could (and likely will) apply to exhibition contests as well. Even that May 10 date could be optimistic insofar as resuming exhibition play; USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted earlier today that multiple general managers are bracing for a delay that could extend into July.

As for the “playing as many games as possible when the season begins,” that remains a challenge in its own right. Manfred said on the aforementioned conference call that owners are still hoping to play a full schedule, although characterizing that as “difficult to envision” would be putting things mildly. Even a Memorial Day start time feels somewhat optimistic at present, and that would push the standard six-month season calendar back into December. Some stadiums, of course, are domed or have retractable roofs, which could aid in playing games late in the year when weather conditions are a concern, but there are myriad logistical challenges that would go along with playing games in neutral settings as necessary late in the year.

Some have suggested vastly increasing the number of doubleheaders played throughout the season, but one can imagine substantial pushback from the MLBPA on that front. The season already has very few off-days (relative to the number of games played), and increasing workload in an effort to reduce the overall length of schedule represents a heightened injury risk.

As has been the case since the the initial two-week delay was announced last week, the unknowns overwhelmingly outweigh the certainties. There’s no immediate means of accurately forecasting the rate at which the coronoavirus will spread — at least not in such a long-term scope. The league and union will surely take the downtime to discuss matters such as scheduling, player salaries, service time, postponing the draft and All-Star Game, pushing back the trade deadline and countless other situations necessitated by the unprecedented slate of delays. As for when Opening Day will actually take place, there’s just no clear way of accurately projecting that at this time.

Manfred: “We Are Not Going To Start On April 9”

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12:55pm: The non-roster invitees who are covered by the union’s weekly allowance are those who are Article XX(B) free agents and finished the 2019 season on a Major League roster or injured list, MLBTR has learned. That effectively covers players with six-plus years of MLB service who closed out last season on a roster and settled for minor league deals this winter.

12:05pm: Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets that Manfred confirmed the obvious during the conference call, plainly stating: “We are not going to start on April 9.”

Unsurprisingly, Goold notes that owners are still hoping to enjoy the revenue of a full season, although it’s not at all clear how they believe that to be possible. That seems like more of a pipe dream, given the increasingly broad slate of governmental regulations and restrictions being put into place the curb the spread of the pandemic. Beyond that, the logistical and meteorological challenges that would arise with a season beginning as late as June or July range from formidable to insurmountable.

Digression aside, Goold adds that Manfred has not formally closed training camps but has sought to limit informal workouts. The commissioner wouldn’t speculate as to when the season could actually begin.

11:53am: Developments have been quick to materialize since Major League Baseball halted Spring Training camps due to the Coronavirus pandemic. More major news could be on the horizon, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that commissioner Rob Manfred is conducting a conference call today wherein he plans to advise all clubs to shut down their spring facilities entirely. Nightengale adds that multiple GMs believe the shutdown could now extend into the month of July, although there’s no formal word on anything beyond the current (very conservative) April 9 date that was announced last Thursday.

Additionally, the MLBPA sent a memo to agents this morning covering a number of issues that have grown into points of concern in the wake of the shutdown (all Twitter links via The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal). Among the pressing issues for veteran players who are in camp on non-roster deals was one of what happens to their mid-spring opt-out dates. A player with a March 19 opt-out date, for instance, is left in an uncomfortable limbo.

Such clauses are commonplace among veterans; among the dozens of recognizable names with such provisions are: Francisco Liriano, Neil Walker, Wade LeBlanc, Logan Forsythe, Greg Holland, Trevor Rosenthal, Jake Petricka and Anthony Swarzak (among countless others). The dates of those clauses range from March 16 up through Opening Day. The Blue Jays already selected Joe Panik to the 40-man roster to avoid complications.

To that end, the league and union are discussing a transaction freeze that could be implemented in the “very near future” and would run through the reopening of training camps, per Rosenthal. Certainly, there’ll need to be some renegotiation of just where those players’ opt-outs will fall on the calendar of a so-called “second Spring Training” later in the year, but the worry over what to do for the time being would be mitigated. Those players would simply remain the property of the clubs with which they signed this winter, rather than having to decide whether to exercise an opt-out clause at a time when the team can’t be sure of a non-roster player’s chances of making the club (and a time when other clubs may be wary of signing anyone new).

The union is also offering to cover some spring living allowances for players, per Rosenthal, allotting up to $1100 per week to 40-man roster players — and “certain non-roster invitees,” though the nature of the exemption isn’t clear — who choose to return either to their homes or to their team’s home city. Per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link), the memo stipulates: “This allowance will remain in effect until April 9th or such a time that the Clubs begin providing similar allowances.”

Sherman further adds (Twitter thread) that the union has informed agents that it is raising complaints with the league regarding teams that have not complied with MLB’s March 14 memo regarding the availability of spring facilities. That memo stipulated that players on a 40-man roster “must be permitted to remain at the Club’s Spring Training site, and are eligible to receive their usual Spring Training allowances.” Today’s union memo indicates that various player testimonies and public reports have made clear this is not happening universally.

Of course, further questions abound. The two sides are still discussing scheduling, player salaries, Major League service time, amateur signings and a host of other topics, per Rosenthal. Matters that pertain to the June draft, incentive-laden contracts and the July 31 trade deadline are surely all being discussed and will be ongoing as both parties seek to navigate their way through an unprecedented series of challenges in today’s game.

Blue Jays Select Joe Panik

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The Blue Jays have selected the contract of veteran infielder Joe Panik, as first indicated on the league transactions log at MLB.com. Right-hander Yennsy Diaz was placed on the 60-day injured list in a corresponding roster move. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith tweets that the move is indeed official, adding that Panik had an opt-out clause in his contract, which necessitated the transaction. It’s also likely that with the league instructing teams to send non-40-man players home (if they’re safely able to do so), the Jays wanted to act quickly to ensure that Panik is able to remain with the group.

The 29-year-old Panik was the Giants’ first-round pick back in 2011 and ascended to the role of everyday second baseman in San Francisco by 2014. He held that role late into the 2019 season, but the Giants, amid a rebuild phase and hoping to evaluate a younger wave of long-term pieces, designated Panik for assignment in early August and released him shortly thereafter. He quickly signed on with the Mets and finished out the year in a part-time role there.

This past season marked a second consecutive rough year at the plate for Panik, who slashed a combined .249/.311/.334 in 883 plate appearance from 2018-19. That’s a far cry from the quality .282/.345/.408 (105 OPS+) that Panik posted from 2014-17 — a stretch wherein he made the 2015 All-Star Game and won a Gold Glove in 2016. Injuries have surely played a part in his downturn. Since 2015, a stress fracture in his back, multiple bouts of concussion symptoms, thumb surgery and a groin strain have all sent Panik to the injured list. He avoided the IL in 2019, although the litany of injuries certainly could have had a lingering effect on his play.

Prior to the league’s coronavirus shutdown, though, Panik looked quite comfortable in camp with the Jays. It’s only 10 games and 26 plate appearances, but Panik went 8-for-21 with a pair of homers, a triple and more walks (four) than strikeouts (three). It’s difficult to glean too much from that limited showing, but the Blue Jays were impressed enough to add Panik to the roster, thus locking in a $2.85MM base salary for the veteran infielder.

A bench role may be likelier for Panik than a starting role, as Cavan Biggio’s youth and his .364 on-base percentage in 100 big league games last season will probably get him the nod in that regard. Biggio hit .234/.364/.429 with 16 home runs, 17 doubles, a pair of triples and 14 steals in 430 plate appearances as a rookie, and the Blue Jays will surely want to give him a large role to see if he can solidify himself as the primary second baseman for years to come. But Panik is plenty capable of playing both up-the-middle positions — he was drafted as a shortstop but moved to second base due to Brandon Crawford’s presence in San Francisco — and could conceivably be asked to be a backup option at third base as well.

As for the 23-year-old Diaz, it’s not yet clear what his actual injury is. The Jays haven’t made a formal announcement of the roster move yet, however, so details will surely emerge when they publicly acknowledge the transaction. Diaz ranks 26th among Jays farmhands at FanGraphs and 29th at MLB.com. He spent the 2019 season with their Double-A club, pitching to a 3.74 ERA with 7.2 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.75 HR/9 and a 40 percent ground-ball rate before appearing in a single big league game last September.

Brett Cecil Has “Fairly Significant” Hamstring Strain

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Cardinals lefty Brett Cecil suffered a “fairly significant” strain of his right hamstring while covering first base in the Cardinals’ final game before the spring shutdown, manager Mike Shildt told reporters over the weekend (link via Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). There’s no concrete timeline on his rehab — as is the case with baseball in general — but he’ll require “multiple weeks of treatment to get him back to close to being into baseball activities,” per Shildt.

Shildt did note that Cecil avoided a full tear of the hamstring, although any strain, by definition, involves some partial tearing. He was able to walk off the field under his own power at the time of the injury (video link), although the 33-year-old was in obvious pain and walking with a limp.

Cecil didn’t pitch at all in 2019 after undergoing surgery to alleviate carpal tunnel syndrome in his pitching hand. A year prior, shoulder troubles wiped out roughly six weeks of his season. The lefty actually pitched well upon returning from the injured list in mid-May but tanked in the second half of that season. Cecil pitched 9 2/3 innings after the 2018 All-Star break and surrendered a staggering 16 runs on 17 hits and 10 walks with just seven strikeouts.

Cecil is now 75 percent of the way through a four-year, $30.5MM contract he signed with St. Louis prior to the 2017 campaign, and to date, he’s managed only 100 innings of 4.86 ERA ball with just 7.7 K/9 against 3.7 BB/9. Cecil struck out 31.6 percent of the hitters he faced over his final three seasons with the Blue Jays but has seen that number plummet to 19.6 percent. His fastball, which averaged 92.2 mph in 2016, averaged just 89.8 mph during the aforementioned 2018 season.

Suffice it to say, that’s not really what the Cards hoped when issuing the largest contract to which they’ve ever signed a reliever. Depending on the length of the shutdown with which the league is faced, it’s possible that Cecil could be healthy by the time a “second Spring Training” rolls around. Shildt’s rather vague wording and the broader uncertainty surrounding the timeline to Opening Day make that impossible to ascertain, however.

Quick Hits: Peraza, Amateur Draft, Cardinals, Pitchers

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Jose Peraza was linked to the Orioles, Indians, and two other unknown teams this offseason, though Peraza tells Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe that he heard from eight or nine clubs while on the open market.  Peraza chose to sign with the Red Sox because of their recent success (“It’s a great place to play baseball if you want to win a championship“) and the opportunity they presented for regular second base work.  “Second base is my most comfortable position.  I played a lot of second base in the minors.  I know I can help this team playing there,” Peraza said.  He saw quite a bit of second base action over his four seasons in Cincinnati, though the Reds gave Peraza more time as a shortstop (almost exclusively so in 2018) and also used him as an outfielder.  Peraza might get some utility action with the Sox but will likely see the most action as Boston’s first-choice option at the keystone.

More from around the baseball world…

  • The title of Keith Law’s latest piece for The Athletic (subscription required) says it all: “How do you prepare for the draft when there are no games to watch?”  Law speaks to several sources from teams and the league itself about how the 2020 amateur draft will be impacted by the COVID-19 shutdown, as universities and high schools have already halted their seasons.  Some of the draft’s top prospects, therefore, will have had little or no chance to play in front of scouts in weeks or even at all by the time the draft rolls around on June 12.  Pushing the draft back altogether could be an option, and other ideas suggested include holding prospect combines or “thrown-together tournaments” (in the words of one GM) so evaluators could look at the players in both workout and game scenarios.  There is no perfect solution to solve such a major interruption in the usual pre-draft process, of course, though Law suggests that Major League Baseball should “work with amateur institutions to waive the typical restrictions on amateur players. Nobody’s eligibility should be at stake here, not in these extraordinary circumstances.”
  • The Cardinals “will not make any [transactions] until we have more clarity on what the future holds,” president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  This means everything from roster cuts, minor league assignments, releases, or any other moves that would have been expected within the next week had Spring Training progressed as per usual.  Despite some speculation on the subject, the league didn’t issue an official freeze on roster moves while the next steps are figured out during this shutdown period, even though some veterans on minor league contracts are approaching the opt-out dates in their contracts.  A couple of teams have made some minor league re-assignments in the interim, while the Nationals made the most notable move in releasing Hunter Strickland and David Hernandez.
  • “The longer the delay lasts, the longer it will take for the pitchers to reset, to rebuild,” ESPN.com’s Buster Olney writes about a timeline for the “second Spring Training” that will be required should the season get back on track.  The latest reports suggest that late May or early June could be earliest date for a new Opening Day, and should the season be delayed until closer to mid-summer, “some staffers believe something close to a month…will be required to get the pitchers up to speed.”  This is yet another complication facing the league and the MLBPA over the coming weeks or months as they try to work out what will be a heavily-reduced schedule.

Latest On League, MLBPA Discussions Over Player Access To Spring Camps

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Major League Baseball issued a memorandum to all 30 teams earlier today that addressed multiple topics, most notably the halt of any organized player workouts at Spring Training facilities.  The plans outlined in the memo will be in place at least through Monday’s planned conference call between the teams and Commissioner Rob Manfred, and alterations could continue to be made Monday or in the days to come based on further developments concerning the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post detailed some of the main points of the memo, which focused primarily on immediate issues concerning Spring Training matters.  Such bigger-picture topics as a revised schedule were discussed between the league and the union, Sherman noted, though no decisions were made since it is too early to know when the season could potentially get underway.

The memo highlights many concerns that the MLBPA raised with the league over the last few days, as outlined by Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of The Athletic (subscription required).  The Orioles, Brewers, Braves, Marlins and Mets were all cited in player complaints to the union about a lack of access to facilities.  As Rosenthal and Drellich put it, “even as MLB and the PA technically agree that facilities are to be open to major league players for now, they differ about what ’open’ means.”

As outlined in today’s memo, players on a 40-man roster “must be permitted to remain at the Club’s Spring Training site, and are eligible to receive their usual Spring Training allowances.”  Non-roster players were instructed to return to their normal homes, though such players with injury problems were allowed to stay in camp to receive treatment from team medical staffers, and “Clubs should work…to provide suitable accommodations” for any player who wished to remain in the United States rather than another country, or for American players “who reside in high-risk areas in the United States.”

The stability of a team facility offers obvious appeal to players who wish to keep training in preparation for whenever the season begins, though MLB and the individual teams have similarly understandable concerns about keeping players gathered in any sort of clustered situation.  “In the view of several executives and MLB officials, any objection to limited access in the middle of a public health crisis misses the larger point of trying to keep players safe,” Rosenthal and Drellich wrote, adding that teams are also worried about older staff members at the facilities who could be at greater risk of catching the coronavirus.

Reports: MLB Season Could Be Delayed Until Memorial Day Weekend

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6:55PM: The Center Of Disease Control And Prevention has issued a recommendation against any events of 50 or more people over the next eight weeks in the United States.  That eight-week timeline would last until May 9, so assuming that the health situation stabilizes within those eight weeks, a Memorial Day start to baseball season wouldn’t seem feasible, given the necessary time required for preseason preparations.

4:56PM: With MLB operations on hold due to the spread of the coronavirus, it’s becoming increasingly likely that the season remains on hold until at least Memorial Day weekend, according to a report from Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Such a scenario would push back the beginning of the regular season to late May. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman expressed a similar sentiment, saying that the commencement of the season “anytime before June would be viewed as welcome.”

Officially, the beginning of the regular season has been delayed for a minimum of two weeks, which points to April 9 as the earliest date for the sport’s return. But in light of recent developments, that date is looking more and more like a mere pipe dream. Indeed, Robert Murray reports that the MLBPA has advised players to consider returning to the place they would be most comfortable for the next 4-6 weeks. The Athletic writers Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich reported yesterday that it was unlikely for the season to begin before May.

In light of a memo distributed by MLB this morning, minor leaguers have been sent home and organized group workouts at team facilities have been halted. Yesterday, it looked like a host of teams were planning to stick together despite the stoppage, but it’s expected that more and more clubs will vacate their Spring Training facilities in the coming days. And with affiliated baseball discovering its first confirmed case of the virus this morning, teams may be more hesitant to keep players grouped together.

By all accounts, MLB is still aiming to play a 162-game season, but the feasibility of that goal will no doubt be challenged by any significant setback. If indeed the season is delayed until Memorial Day or June, a truncated season may be in order. Otherwise, we might be looking (speculatively) at December World Series games in neutral sites. Of course, specifics on this front are scarce and will remain nebulous until the situation gains clarity.

The consequences of a delayed regular season are wide-ranging, and the subsequent questions that must be resolved will be manifold. Issues such as compensation (especially for minor league players and stadium staff), service time, schedule structure, workouts, and plenty more will need to be sorted out before the 2020 campaign may carry on.

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