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Camp Battles: Boston’s Rotation

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Boston’s season-opening rotation is going to look quite a bit different than we could have imagined just a few weeks ago. Gone is left-hander David Price, whom the Red Sox traded to the Dodgers less than a month ago. Fellow southpaw Chris Sale – the team’s No. 1 starter – is still in the fold, but he’ll open the campaign on the 15-day injured list as a result of a pneumonia that has slowed him this spring. Price’s departure and the temporary absence of Sale leaves the Red Sox with just three hurlers – Eduardo Rodriguez, Nathan Eovaldi and Martin Perez – who are shoo-ins to begin 2020 in their rotation. So, even if not for Sale’s illness, they’d still be looking for someone to claim a spot in their rotation in the coming weeks.

Boston’s led by chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, who used to be an executive with a Tampa Bay team that spearheaded the opener strategy. Manager Ron Roenicke admitted last week the Red Sox could mimic the AL East rival Rays in that regard (via Chad Jennings of The Athletic; subscription link).

“We can do (an opener) with two spots in the rotation,” Roenicke said. “But we’ll see if someone emerges and covers one of those spots (as a traditional starter).”

If the Red Sox do want to find at least one more conventional starter before the season, and if they’re not going to venture outside the organization to get one (which is a possibility), whom could they turn to from within? Let’s take a look at some of their options…

  • Ryan Weber, RHP: The 29-year-old Weber has pitched in the majors for the Braves, Mariners, Rays and Red Sox since 2015, but he hasn’t experienced much success in the bigs. Weber’s fastball averaged under 89 mph last year as a member of the Red Sox, with whom he struggled to a 5.09 ERA (with a much better 4.20 FIP) and 6.42 K/9, 1.77 BB/9 and a 48.6 percent groundball rate across a career-high 40 2/3 innings. While Weber worked mostly as a reliever in 2019, the Red Sox are optimistic about his chances of turning into a capable starter or at least a bulk pitcher, thanks to increased reliance on a cutter.
  • Chris Mazza, RHP: Mazza debuted in MLB last season with the Mets at the age of 29, but he yielded 10 earned runs on 21 hits during that 16 1/3-inning span. To Mazza’s credit, he was far better last year in Triple-A, where he put up a 3.67 ERA/3.85 FIP with 7.34 K/9, 2.13 BB/9 and a lofty 58 percent groundball rate across 76 frames.The Mets cut Mazza loose after the season, and he ended up with the Red Sox via waivers.
  • Mike Shawaryn, RHP: Shawaryn, 25, was a fifth-rounder of the Red Sox in 2016 who climbed to the majors for the first time last season. It didn’t go well; even though Shawaryn racked up 29 strikeouts in 20 1/3 innings, he surrendered 22 earned runs on 26 hits and issued 13 walks. And he wasn’t great with Triple-A Pawtucket, either, evidenced by a 4.52 ERA/5.65 FIP with 7.63 K/9 and 4.92 BB/9 in 89 2/3 frames.
  • Kyle Hart, LHP: A 19th-round pick of the Red Sox in 2016, Hart has consistently prevented runs at a solid clip in the minors, where he has never posted an ERA above the threes at any level. The 27-year-old made his Triple-A debut in 2019 and logged a 3.86 ERA/4.32 FIP with 7.18 K/9 and 3.23 BB/9 over 100 1/3 innings.
  • Hector Velazquez, RHP: The 31-year-old threw upward of 100 effective innings for the Red Sox from 2017-18, but things went downhill last season. Owing in part to a career-worst 4.47 BB/9 and a personal-low 38.6 percent groundball rate, Velazquez ended up with a 5.43 ERA/4.74 FIP in 56 1/3 innings.
  • Matt Hall, LHP: Hall, 26, joined the Red Sox in a minor trade with the Tigers in January. The spin rate darling has enjoyed some success in the minors, shown in part by a 4.25 ERA with 10.3 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 144 Triple-A innings, but has allowed almost 10 runs per nine with 5.17 BB/9 in a smaller sample of major league frames (31 1/3).
  • Phillips Valdez, RHP: Valdez was a waiver pickup from the Mariners just last week. He got his first taste of MLB action with the Rangers a season ago, and while he pitched to a 3.94 ERA, averaged better than 10 strikeouts per nine and induced grounders at a 53.3 percent clip, he walked more than five per nine at the same time. And Valdez wasn’t as good at Triple-A, where he recorded a 4.92 ERA/5.59 FIP with 7.44 K/9 and 4.12 BB/9 in 78 2/3 innings of work.
  • Brian Johnson, LHP: Unlike the names listed above, Johnson’s not on Boston’s 40-man roster, meaning he’s facing an especially steep climb to begin the season in the majors. Now 29, Johnson turned in passable numbers as a member of the Red Sox in 2017-18, but health problems helped hold the soft-tossing southpaw to a 6.02 ERA/5.32 FIP in 40 1/3 innings last year, when he walked over five hitters per nine.

If you don’t find Boston’s back-end rotation choices enthralling, it’s hard to blame you. For all we know, though, Bloom will end up going outside for help – something he seems open to doing – whether via free agency, the trade market, waivers or some combination.

Blue Jays Focused On “Development” Of Nate Pearson

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It’s never wise to get too excited over a few spring outings. But already hyped Blue Jays prospect Nate Pearson has been awfully impressive, racking up six strikeouts in three hitless innings while pumping triple-digit heat. Suppose he keeps this up?

Toronto GM Ross Atkins faced the question today: is there any chance that Pearson shows so much that he cracks the Opening Day roster? As Arden Zwelling of the Sportsnet.ca tweets, Atkins didn’t exactly offer a direct answer to that question … though his words certainly suggested that the club is not likely to deviate from its pre-spring plan.

Per Atkins, the Jays “are entirely focused on [Pearson’s] development. And a big part of his development is ensuring he has ever chance to increase that workload in a logical and smart way.”

That’s a nod to the fact that Pearson, one of the game’s very best pitching prospects, has still not thrown more than 101 2/3 innings in a professional campaign owing to an injury-busted 2018 season. And he only made it to Triple-A for three starts.

The Atkins comment may be oblique, but it seems there’s only one reasonable interpretation. If Pearson still requires “development” and a planned-out workload expansion, he’s not going to be considered for an Opening Day gig. As Zwelling wrote recently, the original plan was for Pearson to open at Triple-A. Nothing about what Atkins said today suggests any other outcome.

We have seen teams take differing approaches to situations such as this. Quite a few organizations have declined to change their plans even after watching a breakout Spring Training from a top prospect, resisting the allure in favor of service-time and other considerations. See, e.g., the Cubs and Kris Bryant. But that’s not an inevitable outcome. Last season, the Padres decided to carry Fernando Tatis Jr. north out of camp. Seven years ago, the dearly departed Jose Fernandez forced the Marlins’ hands.

In this case, fans that pine for a bold decision from the Blue Jays front office are almost certain to be disappointed — at least in the short run. The Jays did make some long-awaited rotation additions over the winter, so it’s not as if there’s a glaring hole in the staff at the moment. If circumstances warrant, it stands to reason that Pearson could push into the MLB picture later this year. In the meantime, Toronto fans will have to hope that the patience pays off — all while enjoying some of the other intriguing young players on the roster.

Dodgers Outright Yadier Alvarez

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The Dodgers announced that righty Yadier Alvarez has been outrighted after clearing waivers, as MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick was among those to tweet. He had been designated for assignment recently.

Alvarez lost his 40-man spot after some shoulder issues cropped up. It’s unclear as of yet what his health outlook is. Any injury issues would only add to the slate of challenges facing the youngster, who’ll turn 24 later this week.

Once considered a blue-chip pitching prospect, Alvarez has long dealt with control issues and slid off track in 2019. He only made two appearances last year while struggling with injury and disciplinary issues.

Alvarez has yet to appear in the majors. Based upon the history to this point, it seems unlikely he’ll reward the team for its up-front investment ($16MM, which was effectively doubled by tax obligations). Still, the Dodgers will presumably be glad to have the chance to hang onto the remaining upside in Alvarez’s powerful right arm. Better still, the team can work to get him on track without tying up a roster spot.

Still No Timetable For Cole Hamels

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It has now been nearly three weeks since news emerged that Braves starter Cole Hamels wouldn’t be ready to report to Spring Training on time due to some shoulder irritation. There’s still no timeline in place for him to get back to action, manager Brian Snitker said today, as David O’Brien of The Athletic reports (Twitter links).

There is some evidence of progress, it seems, but the update largely confirms that the Atlanta organization is going to endure a fairly lengthy stretch without the veteran southpaw. A recent medical exam — held, as promised, three weeks after the initial concern arose — revealed that Hamels’s shoulder has improved but that he’s still not ready to resume throwing.

There really isn’t much to go off of here in assessing the situation. The Braves haven’t given much indication of just what Hamels is dealing with, so there’s no context to work with. It isn’t clear when Hamels will go in for another check-up, either. Presumably, he won’t pick up a ball until he receives clearance.

What is clear is that Hamels is certain to miss the start of the season — and not just the minimum 15 days. (Yes, the 15-day IL is back for pitchers.) Even if Hamels is cleared to throw in a week’s time and doesn’t experience further issues, he’d be about a month behind the regular ramp-up schedule and wouldn’t have a chance to tune up in Spring Training competition.

The Braves can certainly weather the loss of Hamels. Sean Newcomb and Felix Hernandez are likely to round out the rotation to open the season, but there are a host of interesting young arms available to call upon depending upon how things progress. Snitker said today that Kyle Wright, Bryse Wilson, and perhaps Touki Toussaint could still challenge for roles. Still, it’s obviously disappointing to lose the team’s major offseason rotation addition — particularly since Hamels was signed in large part to provide reliable innings.

Yankees Have Shown Interest In Steven Matz

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Following injuries to Luis Severino and James Paxton, the Yankees have reached out to the Mets to inquire on the availability of left-hander Steven Matz, per Ken Davidoff and Mike Puma of the New York Post. SNY’s Andy Martino tweets that while there’s been contact between the two teams, however, a deal is quite unlikely.

The 28-year-old Matz has started 30 games in each of the past two seasons, pitching to a combined 4.09 ERA with 8.7 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.49 HR/9 and a 48 percent ground-ball rate in 314 1/3 frames. The Mets control him through the 2021 season as an arbitration-eligible player.

A deal between the two sides coming together would indeed face numerous obstacles. The Yankees and Mets generally don’t trade with one another, and the Mets themselves have some question marks among their starting staff. Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman and Rick Porcello are locks at this point, and there’s been talk of taking a less-conventional approach to the fifth spot, using both Matz and Michael Wacha in nontraditional capacities. After that, the 40-man roster contains Stephen Gonsalves, Walker Lockett, Corey Oswalt and Franklyn Kilome, while veteran righty Erasmo Ramirez is in camp on a non-roster deal. Wacha and Porcello are already in need of their own rebounds, and a trade of Matz followed by an injury elsewhere on the starting staff would leave the Mets with a good bit of uncertainty.

From a financial vantage point, Matz’s $5MM salary for the 2020 season would cost the Yankees more than it appears at first glance. After adding Gerrit Cole to the mix and giving out arbitration raises to the likes of Paxton, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Gio Urshela, Tommy Kahnle and others, the Yankees find themselves more than $50MM north of the luxury barrier. Because they’re more than $40MM above that $208MM line and would be in luxury-tax territory for a second straight season, the Yankees would owe a 75 percent tax on any additional dollars added to the payroll. In effect, Matz would cost them $8.75MM. It’s not a backbreaking difference, but it’d certainly impact the manner in which the club determines Matz’s value and what he should cost in a theoretical trade.

Perhaps the biggest roadblock, though, is the simple fact that the Mets would covet MLB talent in return for Matz, according to the Post’s reporting. Puma and Davidoff suggest that Miguel Andujar would “likely” intrigue the Mets but that the Yankees wouldn’t be keen on such a swap.

Not long after Severino’s injury was announced, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman downplayed the possibility of making a move. “The winter marketplace this time of year, it doesn’t exist,” he said when asked about the possibility of going outside the organization for help. That’s not a declaration that he wouldn’t make any type of effort, but as the previously laid-out obstacles illustrate, making a deal this time of year (particularly in the case of these two teams) can be problematic.

The Yankees have surely asked about other starters — they’ve also scouted free agent Henderson Alvarez — but inquiring and acquiring are two very different things. There’s still a bit more than three weeks to try to pull something together before Opening Day, but it’s difficult to envision a Matz swap coming to fruition.

Steven Brault Shut Down With Shoulder Issue

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The Pirates have shut left-hander Steven Brault down due to a strained muscle in his left shoulder, the team announced this morning. He’ll be reevaluated in two weeks’ time.

Brault, 27, pitched a career-high 113 1/3 innings at the Major League level in 2019 but struggled to a career-worst 5.16 ERA in that time. He averaged 8.0 strikeouts, 4.2 walks and 1.19 homers per nine innings pitched along the way.

Additional details on the injury weren’t provided, but it obviously casts doubt upon Brault’s readiness to begin the season. He’s worked both as a starter and as a reliever in the Majors and seemed likely to slot into the 2020 rotation prior to this morning’s announcement. The Bucs are thin on starting pitching options on the 40-man roster following injuries to Jameson Taillon (2019 Tommy John surgery), Chad Kuhl (2018 Tommy John surgery) and Clay Holmes (broken foot).

An absence for Brault could further open the door for non-roster southpaw Derek Holland to make the Opening Day rotation alongside Chris Archer, Joe Musgrove, Trevor Williams and Mitch Keller. The Pirates could also look to the handful of remaining free agents or pursue some alternative depth options later in camp as veterans opt out of minor league deals and as other players are exposed to waivers.

Tom Koehler Retires

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Right-hander Tom Koehler, in camp with the Pirates as a non-roster invitee to Spring Training, announced his retirement from baseball on Instagram this morning. The 33-year-old Koehler says he’s looking forward to “starting [his] next chapter in the game,” whenever and whatever that may hold. For now, it seems as though he’ll take some time with his family.

Tom Koehler

From 2013-16, Koehler was a solid and durable constant at the back of the Marlins’ rotation, averaging 30 starts per season while pitching to a 4.14 ERA with averages of 6.8 strikeouts, 3.7 walks and 1.0 home runs per nine innings pitched. He struggled early in the 2017 season and found himself traded to the Blue Jays, with whom he posted an intriguing 15-game relief stint (2.65 ERA, 18-to-6 K/BB ratio in 17 innings). That showing prompted the Dodgers to take a look at Koehler in the offseason with the hope that he could transform his career as a late-inning bullpen piece.

Instead, Koehler was beset by shoulder injuries in 2018. After spending more than half the season trying to rehab an anterior capsule strain and make his Dodgers debut, Koehler underwent surgery that ended his 2018 season. He never threw a pitch at the MLB level for the Dodgers. He signed with the Pirates both last offseason and earlier this winter but wasn’t able to get back onto the hill.

It’s a tough way to end a playing career, although as an 18th-round senior sign back in 2008, Koehler exceeded any and all expectations. The Stony Brook alum pitched in 161 Major League games, totaling 784 1/3 innings of 4.39 ERA ball along the way. Koehler’s 36-55 record is more an indictment on the sub-par Marlins rosters surrounding him for much of his career than on his own abilities on the mound. He was generally a serviceable option, twice leading the club in games started and once leading them in innings pitched. Koehler was never a household name but pitched into his arbitration years, helping him to secure more than $12MM in total salary. Best wishes to Koehler in whatever path he next pursues.

Mariners’ Matt Festa To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Mariners right-hander Matt Festa is slated to undergo Tommy John surgery and will miss the 2020 season, tweets Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. Festa was outrighted off the 40-man roster this winter but had been in camp as a non-roster invitee to Spring Training.

The 26-year-old Festa has pitched a total of 30 2/3 innings of relief over the past two seasons. To this point in his relatively young career, Festa has managed a 4.70 ERA with a 25-to-14 K/BB ratio and a 36.5 percent ground-ball rate in the Majors. He’ll now have to wait at least a year to for the opportunity to add to that resume.

Although Festa lost his roster spot over the winter, his absence still depletes the Mariners’ depth a bit. Based solely on his minor league results, Festa would’ve had a decent shot at eventually reemerging in the Majors in 2020. The overall sample is pretty small — Festa was drafted in 2016 and made his MLB debut in 2018 — but the right-hander has a sub-3.00 ERA in both Double-A and Triple-A and has generally posted sharp strikeout-to-walk ratios throughout his minor league tenure. In total, Festa has tossed 209 2/3 frames in the minors and compiled a 3.18 ERA with 11.0 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9.

Jose Bautista Eyeing Return As Two-Way Player

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It’s been more than three months since Jose Bautista made it known that he had no plans to officially retire. There’s been virtually nothing mentioned about him since that time, but ESPN’s Jeff Passan now reports that the 39-year-old Bautista has been working out as a pitcher this winter in hopes of a return as a two-way player. Bautista plans to play for the Dominican Republic in this month’s Olympic qualifier tournament, though he might not pitch in that setting.

Bautista’s accomplishments at the plate are well known, of course. He emerged from journeyman prospect status to Blue Jays stalwart and feared All-Star slugger with a 2010 season that saw him rip a league-leading 54 homers. That kicked off a run of six straight All-Star appearances and helped to bring about the “Joey Bats” moniker that followed him throughout his career. From 2010-16, Bautista raked at a .264/.387/.542 clip, averaging 36 homers per season. His 2015 ALDS bat flip after a go-ahead, three-run homer against the Rangers stands out as one of the more iconic moments in Blue Jays franchise history.

All that said, Bautista’s production dipped sharply as he entered his late 30s. A 2017 return to the Blue Jays on a one-year, free-agent deal didn’t prove fruitful, and a followup effort split between the Braves, Mets and Phillies was better but not particularly encouraging. In a combined 1085 plate appearances between those two seasons, Bautista batted .203/.323/.371. He did not sign with a club last winter and sat out the 2019 season.

So what’s next for Bautista? He’s slated to play primarily first base in the aforementioned Olympic qualifier tournament. As for the slugger’s mound work, Passan tweets that he’s been able to run his fastball up to 94 mph. Bautista is also throwing a slider, it seems. Former Jays teammate Marcus Stroman tweeted in January that he’d been working out with Bautista and legitimately believed he could pitch in a Major League bullpen. It wasn’t clear at the time, though, that Bautista was actually working toward a spot as a potential two-way player.

Obviously, Bautista would face long odds in working his way back into the Majors — particularly as a viable pitcher. The addition of a 26th roster spot and the official two-way player designation may slightly bolster his chances of emerging as a first baseman/outfielder/reliever, but we’ve seen very few players capable of actually succeeding in a two-way role to this point. He’ll need to throw for big league scouts and would almost certainly need to be willing to take a minor league deal, but the possibility of Joey Bats becoming “Joey Sliders” should be a fun one to follow.

Yankees, Royals, Marlins Among Teams To Have Recently Scouted Henderson Alvarez

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The Yankees, Royals and Marlins are among the teams that have scouted a recent throwing session from right-hander Henderson Alvarez, The Athletic’s Marc Carig reports while chronicling the 29-year-old’s latest comeback efforts. Alvarez has frequently taken to social media to post clips of his workouts and bullpen sessions, and he’s drawn at least a few speculative scouting assignments, although obviously no deal has come together yet. If or when he does sign, it’d surely be on a minor league pact.

Since being named to the NL All-Star team as a 24-year-old back in 2014, Alvarez has thrown just 37 innings in the Major Leagues and 116 1/3 innings of affiliated ball in the minors. He’s also tallied 165 1/3 frames in the Mexican League. Alvarez underwent shoulder surgery in both 2015 and 2016 — the effects of which have largely derailed what looked to be an otherwise promising career. However, he remains motivated to return to the big leagues, telling Carig: “I know I can still give more.”

Alvarez did pitch in affiliated ball last year, throwing 53 innings with the Nationals’ Triple-A club. Like most pitchers in Triple-A — the Pacific Coast League in particular — he was plagued by home runs, serving up 15 long balls en route to a 5.94 ERA. After being cut loose by the Nats, Alvarez returned to Mexico to make six starts for los Tigres de Quintana Roo. In 34 2/3 innings, he logged a 3.12 ERA with a 23-to-5 K/BB ratio and a 57.6 percent ground-ball rate. He closed out the season with a complete-game victory wherein he allowed one run.

The Yankees have lost Luis Severino for the season (Tommy John surgery) and James Paxton for more than a month of the regular season (back surgery), so it’s only natural to see them at least exploring depth additions in the rotation. At the moment, it looks as though Jordan Montgomery will take the fourth spot behind Gerrit Cole, Masahiro Tanaka and J.A. Happ. The competition for the fifth spot includes Luis Cessa, Jonathan Loaisiga, Mike King and Chad Bettis, among others.

The Royals, meanwhile, don’t have a defined fifth starter, and club decision-makers have been open about the possibility of bringing in a veteran option even as they allow their plethora of highly regarded young arms to compete for that starting job. Brad Keller, Danny Duffy, Jakob Junis and Mike Montgomery should hold down the top four spots. The competition for the team’s fifth starter presently is vast and could ultimately be a revolving door early in the year if the club opts to use an opener. Jesse Hahn, Eric Skoglund and Chance Adams are among the names on the 40-man roster vying for a look. Top prospects Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch and Jackson Kowar could all be factors eventually as well.

Rotation help isn’t as needed in Miami, where the Marlins have a wealth of controllable options with MLB experience who’ll comprise one of the game’s youngest starting staffs. Sandy Alcantara, Caleb Smith, Pablo Lopez, Jose Urena and Jordan Yamamoto have the most experience, and the wave of high-end arms immediately behind them includes the likes of Sixto Sanchez, Nick Neidert and Edward Cabrera. But Alvarez’s lone All-Star season in ’14 came as a Marlin, and a comeback with the Miami organization would make for a compelling storyline in South Florida.

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