The Padres have been on the hunt for long-term outfield pieces for a while. Over the past five years, the Friars have trotted out ten different Opening Day starters on the grass. Only Manuel Margot (three times), Wil Myers and Matt Kemp (two apiece) had garnered multiple Opening Day opportunities in that time. Evidently, they weren’t sold on their 2019 group, either. Of the four outfielders with the most playing time for the Friars last season, three are gone. Hunter Renfroe and Margot were sent to the Rays in separate deals, while Franmil Reyes was traded to the Indians in last summer’s three-team blockbuster. Only Myers is still around, and that’s seemingly because the club found his contract ($67.5MM remaining over three years) too difficult to move.
Yet the club acted decisively to solidify the outfield this offseason. Tommy Pham came over from Tampa Bay in the Renfroe deal. He’s a known commodity who should shore up left field for the next two years, his final seasons of arbitration control. More interesting from a long-term perspective is Trent Grisham. The 23-year-old was acquired from the Brewers in November in a four-player deal that cost the Pads prized young infielder Luis Urías and starter Eric Lauer.
A first-round pick (15th overall) out of a Texas high school in 2015, Grisham’s pro career got off to a bit of a rocky start. Baseball America’s #49 overall prospect after his draft year, his stock fell in the eyes of evaluators with each passing season. High strikeout rates in the low minors combined with relatively little power production to tamp down his offensive output. He always drew an elite number of walks, but it was fair to question whether that would continue against higher-level pitchers.
In 2017, Grisham seemingly turned a corner. He increased his fly ball rate by ten percentage points from the year prior. Not only did he maintain that ability the following year, he upped it another six points in his first crack at Double-A. Things fully clicked last season, when Grisham maintained his fly ball oriented batted ball profile while cutting his strikeouts four points. All the while, he managed to maintain his elite walk rates. In 283 plate appearances in the pitcher-friendly Southern League, Grisham hit .254/.371/.504 with a career-high 13 home runs. He matched those 13 homers in a month-plus in the PCL before earning an August call to the majors.
With only 183 MLB plate appearances under his belt, Grisham certainly doesn’t have a long track record at the highest level. Early indications, though, are he’ll carry over much of that minor-league approach. He remains exceptionally patient. That willingness to run deep counts will probably always lead to a fair amount of strikeouts, but Grisham made contact at a league average rate in the big leagues when he did swing. He also showed surprising speed, ranking in the 93rd percentile leaguewide, per Statcast.
To some, Grisham’s probably only known for his costly error in right field in last season’s NL Wild Card game. That unfortunately proved to be the final image of his Milwaukee career, but Brewers GM David Stearns shot down any notion (via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com) that one play had anything to do with the trade. No doubt, the left-handed hitter’s performance track record and physical gifts weigh heavier on decision-makers’ minds than a single misplay, no matter how high-profile.
MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell reported last month Grisham had the inside track at the Padres’ center field job. If/when the 2020 season resumes, that presumably would still be the plan. San Diego no doubt hopes his impressive high-minors performance will translate into an MLB-ready, long-term outfield fixture.
gotta admit i was never a fan as a prospect, but he killed it in ST. im certainly intrigued now.
You’re 18, your prospect analysis means nothing
Nor does your comment
Yet your comment is well below 18 year old mentality.
uh, thanks?
This may be Sean Burrough’s time to shine.
Matt Clement is gonna give em a cy young season. Bet.
Clement had nasty stuff when he wanted to.
The drop on his pitches was downright nasty.
Sometimes it is more than talent but when Clement came out when his A stuff it was going to be a long night.
The difference for pitchers is their A stuff came become C stuff with one bad at bat
Some pitchers C stuff can be A stuff with one at bat
100% mental
I was so stoked when the Sox signed clement. And he actually had a great first half for them before he moved into his own head and started overthinking every pitch. I always rooted for him cause he had asthma like me!
dynamite drop in monty, Sean Burroughs…..I haven’t read that name in a LONG time…LOL. The great Padres 3B that couldn’t hit his weight. Phil Nevin was never the fielder that Graig Nettles or Ken Caminiti were at the ‘hot corner’, but he could always HIT. I still laugh that a competition was started between Nevin and Burroughs. How do you consider replacing Phil Nevin with a guy that can’t hit?
To be fair, Burroughs had always hit in the minors and was a much better defender. If you had to shoehorn Nevin-Klesko-Burroughs into the same lineup, 1b-LF-3b was the only way to go.
Burroughs hit .325 as a minor leaguer despite being way younger than his competition. He’d been a top 10 prospect for three years running before his debut. His lack of immediate major league success may have gotten into his head, but he had the physical tools and the performance record.
Nevin was a tremendous hitter as a Padre, but before then he’d bounced from the Tigers to the Angels and never done much. He’d been a terrific college player (Golden Spikes), but there has always been speculation about his power increase as a Padre, especially to the opposite field. Hitting one out to RF in Qualcomm for a RH hitter was no joke.
If memory serves, the Mariners wanted Burroughs, Ruben Rivera, and Matt Clement for Randy Johnson in 1998. We would have been hard pressed to beat the Yankees in the Series, they were a fantastic team. But Brown-Johnson at the top of the rotation would have been fun to see.
Billy Baroo, I recall the Mariners wanted Joey Hamilton SP and Ruben Rivera CF for Randy Johnson at the ’98 trade deadline. Regardless, that trade is the greatest “If only…” in Padre history. Brown, Johnson and Andy Ashby would have been a great 1-2-3 rotation against the Yankees. Perhaps that would have put Sterling Hitchcock in the bullpen. Mark Langston’s Grand Slam to Tino Martinez may never have happened in game 1. With Hitchcock in the pen, why would Bochy give the ball to Mark Langston in that spot? I know, it’s all “If Only’s…” and speculation. .
Billy Baroo, I don’t want you to think that I am trying to knock Sean Burroughs. I liked that kid! I recall a blow-out game where he took the ball and pitched because there was nobody else to do it. He had grit and tried his best! This has been a fun walk down Padres Memory Lane. Reading names like Burroughs, Clement, Arias, and Rivera has to make all fans realize that with prospects nothing is certain. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and always have a PLAN B.
Forgot who the Astros traded for when they gave Nevin up to Detriot.
But he had a lot of hype when the Astros drafted him
But he took the long road to major league stardom.
He stuck it out. Even learned to play catcher.
Jasona9 – That is too bad. Dave Stewart went from Padres pitching coach to Blue Jays Assistant GM and his big trade was Joey Hamilton for Woody Williams and Carlos Almanzar. Then the Jays immediately handed Hamilton an extension. It was a preview for things to come in Arizona years later. Too bad Seattle couldn’t make that deal; would have saved the Blue Jays.
Burroughs got a shot because of his bloodline. His dad Jeff Burroughs has a decent career with the Braves.
Burroughs was a great prospect in his own right. Most prospects fail to reach their ceilings, just like Burroughs did.
Nah he was a solid prospect and he kicked butt in the little league World Series
Burroughs hit for average but had zero power. For what looked like a big, strong kid he was a powder puff at the plate. Maybe he was the one player NOT on steroids during that time.
George Arias puts it all together this year
MWeller77, George Arias…..He had the impossible task of replacing one-time MVP Ken Caminiti at 3B in 1999. He had Ripped-up the PCL! Unfortunately, that didn’t translate to success in the majors. He was replaced as the Padres 3B midway through the ’99 season by then back-up catcher Phil Nevin. The typical fans response was, “What took so long”. Last I read George Arias finished his career in Japan. Another nice guy, according to press reports he really tried hard, but just couldn’t cut the mustard.
Funny story is Nevin was supposed to replace Caminiti in Houston
Ended up replacing him in SD
Glad to have Framil Reyes in Cleveland. He was having a monster spring and I believe is poised to have a breakout season whenever we are able to start the season.
The Pads will rue the day they traded him
I went to college w a guy who would write that as “roo the day” and when I asked him why he said he thought the phrase meant kangaroos used to ruin people’s days.
not going to lie, prefer his idea
Me too
Jason LaRoo says hi
Not really. He was always best suited for the DH. Unless the NL adopts the DH in the next 5 years. Great power bat his obp skills could be better.
Last year:
Hunter Renfroe 31.5% k rate and 9.3% walk rate.
Franmil Reyes 28.5% k rate and 8.6 walk rate.
Both ranked as poor in terms of k rate based on fangraphs tiers.
Tommy Pham 18.8% k rate and 12.4% walk rate.
Trent Grisham posted 26.2% k rate and 10.9% k rate in limited sample size. His minor numbers were better bigger walk rate lower k rate.
Padres clearly were prioritizing on base skills this off season and cutting down on strike outs.
Will remain to be seen if grisham can transition his minor numbers to the majors but Reyes and Renfroe both struck out way too much and didn’t offer enough on base skill to offset the K issues. Neither offered much in terms of base running skills either.
Reyes posted -1.9 bsr with Padres and -1.4 with indians and Renfroe posted -0.4
Pham posted a 0.6 and Grisham offered 0.7 in limited sample size.
You pointed out everything except truly explaining if a player can hit. Walk and K rates? WOW. Two stats where a player doesn’t have to take the bat off the shoulder and you don’t even show the real impact; swinging the bat. What you wrote was a bunch of crap with a side of who cares.
Clearly you cared enough to waste your time and respond to my post.
And you’re gonna show me and others how much you don’t care when you type a response to this. People who actually don’t care don’t waste their time responding smart one.
And clearly I made enough of an impression for a rebuttal. You’re welcome
WAJGH Canada’s favorite fart sniffer!
No they won’t.
Man are you wrong, Reyes was a great guy but cost as many games on his D that he won with a hit, he belongs in the AL as a DH wishing him the best and that he keeps that smile
If they keep him a full-time DH and they will get 40+ homers and a solid middle-order bat.
A .300 OBP is not a solid middle of the order bat.
He is going to hit 40+ HR for the Indians. Incredible power. Padres had no place for him because of his defense, but in Cleveland he has DH.
Reyes is also only 24 years old. He has time to improve.
His D will always be a problem, his OBP was terrible, etc.
He is a great kid with a big bat. They should have shipped Renfroe to Cuyahoga county instead.
tbh I think his prospect star fell because he changed his name from Clark to Grisham and didn’t tell enough people, so people forgot about him the second he played not-great in 2017 – they didn’t even know it was the guy everyone saw as a top 50 prospect.
there straight years of a ~.220-.230 goes a long way to damaging one’s prospect status. more than a name change does.
Batting average is lol, his obp was always good
You can’t walk to the majors. You have to hit and hit for power. Other than 34 games in AAA Grisham was not able to do that. It is unlikely he can in the majors either.
We shall see. Hopefully he’s got it figured out.
Maybe Oakland allows players to walk to the majors. After all, they looked for walkers instead of hitters drafting in the early 2000’s which is why Chokeland couldn’t churn out talent for many years after the Alderson-era draft picks and international signings.
WAJGH the guy who disagrees with things because he wants to start an internet fight! BATTLE!
Happy Easter Assume. Glad the facility let you back on the computer although you weren’t sorely missed. Really hope your family left isolation to visit your padded room.
Man you are so wrong, HR’s got us last place, we need players with OBP and then a few guys that drive them in. I would drop Tatis to the No.3 hole with Pham leading off and Trent No.2, get some guys on base for Tatis and Manny. FYI
Grisham couldn’t hit or hit for power in the minors. Other than 34 games in the PCL with a juiced ball he hit .231 with 32 HR the past 4 years. In spring training this year he played bad defense and was a spray hitter with only 2 XBH. You can throw out batting average since it was 11 games and he had a 440 BABIP.
Pads Fans back
Brain dead. The doctor has pronounced Strike Four brain dead.
Trade Rumors is putting out more frequent and arguably better insights than the Athletic is right now. I’m a big fan of the Athletic, so consider that a huge compliment. Great to have sports to read during this unique time.
and the big difference – its free!
Both sites are outstanding. The Athletic is a bargain.
Agreed – it’s a big time bargain. Just reading the list of the top 100 players in the history of baseball is worth way more than what they charge. Really hope that series is made available in a book.
Who is Matt Clement?
You would have to be a Padre fan to know who Matt Clement was. A young pitcher with a lot of talent who never became special.
yeah, to be honest saw Jeff Clement at first until i realized the player in question was a pitcher.
Around ‘87 or ‘88 the Pads acquired a journeyman pitcher named (IIRC) Pat Clement. I was REALLY EXCITED for a few days till I figured out that this wasn’t the phenom with a very similar surname who had recently risen to stardom in Boston.
Before you mock me: I was ten or eleven years old lol
Hey Armaday—Ex-Padre electric fireballer. Kid couldn’t throw strikes—I’ve never seen a slider start so far off any plate before ending up two feet away upon completion. Batters were never tempted to go after it.
Clement wasn’t *that* bad. No hall of Famers, but he had a pretty long career with the Padres, Cubs, Marlins and Red Sox.
I remember him giving up lots of walks.
They rotate too many outfielders. Preller can’t decide what direction he wants to go with this club. If Grisham and Pham are the answers they have a serious problem. This article seems like Anthony Franco was due to write something and just picked a weak subject.
The outfield needed improvement. Pham is a definite improvement. Of course you cannot rebuild an entire OF in one offseason. Pham was the best trade he could make without trading Gore, Patino and Abrams. He didn’t have $50-$70 million to spend on OF this off-season, and even if he did there was nobody worth spending that on. All he can do is the best he can.
Pham is lightyears better than Renfroe.
Not if he needs TJS and certainly not after 2021
Until he got hurt last year, Renfroe was much better than Pham.
WRC+ by month “until Renfroe got hurt.”
Pham wins April, 141-117.
Pham wins May, 146-134.
Renfroe wins June, 142-101,
Pham’s OBP is more valuable, and more consistent, than Renfroe’s power. Hunter could put it together, he’s not unskilled, but Pham HAS put it together, for 3 straight years.
If he is healthy, something Pham was not, he was slightly better overall than a healthy Renfroe.
Pham was at the bottom of the lists on defense and Renfroe was at the top. Before his injury in June Renfroe was at the top of the lists for offense too.
Pham is 32 so its almost a guarantee that he will not be as good as last year and Renfroe at least has a chance to improve at 28. A substantial decline by Pham, something that is common for 32 year old players or TJ surgery and Renfroe playing like he did before the injury last season and this looks like the dumbest trade of the offseason.
DarkSide830, “Pham is lightyears better than Renfroe”. Pham had better be! The Padres are paying MORE money for him and traded a player with two additional years of control. If Pham isn’t significantly better than Renfroe than the Padres lose that trade. I hope Tommy loves playing LF in San Diego.
Renfroe went on a hot streak last year until the all star break. After that he was horrible and his lack of productivity was a big factor in the Padres meltdown.
He has immense power but he is always going to strike out a lot. His defense is solid, which is probably what tipped the scales and sent Reyes to Cleveland. I think he will do well in Tampa and see more pitches to hit there.
Renfroe appears to have had a high ankle sprain and a bone spur in his foot. Not clear when he incurred them though. They probably shouldn’t have let him play through them.
I never thought the Padres would trade BOTH Franmil Reyes and Hunter Renfroe. I hope Pham and Trammell prove to be worth it! Pham actually needs to be significantly better than Renfroe for that trade to be a win for the Padres. Renfroe is younger, less expensive, and had two extra years of control. Time will tell.
Pham (LF), Grisham (CF) and Myers (RF) look like they will be a solid trio when the 2020 season gets going. Wil has struggled the last couple of seasons, but was having a monster Spring. We’ll see……
the same Grisham who hit. 230 everywhere he’s played other than half a season in the PCL last year?
He hit 330 in the Rookie leagues (2015) but that was admittedly a while ago.
His WRC+ for the “bad period,” 2016-2018, was still above average. His walk numbers have normally been good and his Ks acceptable.
He’s absolutely a scouting choice by Preller, not a sabremetric choice.
I did not like giving up Urias at all.. Again, that feels like an emotional choice by Preller, similar to his gut feeling that Trea Turner didn’t have the arm to play short in the majors. But Grisham does have talent, even if it didn’t consistently translate into results in the minors.
Urias is going to be another Rizzo or Turner. Wait and see.
26% K rate is not acceptable unless you are demonstrating exceptional power. 32 HR in 4 seasons outside of 34 games in the PCL with a juiced ball is not showing power at all.
He also didn’t srike out in 26% of his minor league PA’s, Koamalu. Don’t change the story to fit your narrative! He was striking out in the upper teens!
I guess I don’t translate how much a guy walks against A+ and AA pitching that’s generally not going to make the majors to how much he’ll walk against big-league pitching and if he can’t hit for average or power against the weak pitching, it’s less likely he’ll do it against better pitching. Players’ stats tend to get worse the higher they get as the weaker competition gets weeded out.
His 600 ab slash line for 2019 in Mil would equate to 23 hrs 87 rbis 87 runs 328 obp – This from his first 156 career abs (Nypad66)
He was the 15th overall pick in 2015
And yea he had 11 hits in 31 abs this Spring…..
Same ole grey clouds in here, you Padres fans sure attract some haters here for being so secluded and quiet down their in Sunny SD,. Like the West coast Mets over huurrr
Personally I like Grish’s upside more than Urias and given that 2b is majorly devalued these days it makes it even easier- I think they see a poor mans non Yankee staduims Granderson here, which is a huge compliment- Good eye low bavg some speed an pop
“Personally I like Grish’s upside more than Urias…”
Grisham has no upside.
“… and given that 2b is majorly devalued these days it makes it even easier”
If 2B is so easy to fill how come the Padres don’t have one?
“Grisham has no upside.”
Do not agree. He may not be a CF long-term (or even short) and he may never have eye-popping power, but his plate discipline is fantastic, he’s fast, and he does have some pop. Our own Tommy Pham is a possible comp — somebody who doesn’t excel at anything but does most things well, and excels at the most important thing — getting on base.
“If 2b is so easy to fill how the Padres don’t have one?”
Agree, especially since we seem to be simpatico regarding Urias. There was no way Preller had to trade Urias to get Grisham. One of the sneakiest benefits of keeping Urias was that we then had 3 players capable of playing short on the starting roster, so we didn’t need a backup infielder who could do that. We could have carried a bat-first bench player.
Urias is about as capable as playing SS as I am. But no one said he had to be capable of playing SS. Best to just put him at 2nd base and leave him there.
Padres still have ZERO second basemen.
So you’re a passable major league shortstop? What are you doing to stay in shape during this shutdown? 🙂
The Brewers, a very smart organization, plan to use Urias at SS.
He didn’t need to be a 150 game first-division shortstop. He needed to be a 150 game 2b who could slide over to SS without killing us, and he’s more than capable of doing that.
The dude was pretty bad at shortstop. Both by the eye test and by the statistics. If I’m trading for him I’m putting him at 2nd base and leaving him there. Which the Padres could have very easily afforded to do.
Grisham only had 34 games in AAA with juiced ball
nypadre66, I wrote “solid”, not superb or even great….we’ll hope and see! With Manuel Margot gone the Padres don’t have a true CF. The job looks like Trent Grisham’s to lose.
He’s only 23. Give him a chance. I really like his intensity.
Good luck with that.. You have Pham and two question marks.
Two years from now, Zach Davies, Jurickson Profar and Tommy Pham will be free agents and Trent Grisham and Jake Cronenworth will have been DFA’d.
There’s yet to be a compelling argument for why Preller traded for Profar. He can barely throw from 2b and yet people will say “he can play anywhere.” Hey, I can play anywhere. I will suck at it, but I can jog from the dugout to any position on the field.
Pham is a true sign that Preller needs to win. He is a good player, almost surely better than Renfroe over the next two years as long as his elbow doesn’t blow apart.
Davies vs Lauer seems like a bad negotiation by Preller. He was so hot to get rid of Urias that he ponied up even more.
Have a good feeling about Cronenworth. That’s a true utility player (unlike Profar) with the pitching flexibility. Not a world-beater, but can be an important player on a good team.
Grisham — we’ll have to see if the scouts or the numbers are right.
@Billy Baroo…
Preller traded for Profar because he needed a new lapdog now that Jose Pirela is gone.
Davies and Lauer are pretty interchangeable to me from a skill perspective but Lauer is controlled 3 years longer.
Preller did seem dead-set on dumping Urias. It’s clear that he never believed in the guy at any point in time, which seriously calls his ability as a scout into question. Urias basically has to be a complete bust at this point for Preller to keep his job.
Urias is one of the best pure hitters I have seen in the upper minors in a decade. The Padres constant tinkering with his swing and not giving him consistent at bats after he was called up was a dumb move. He will hit .280/.380 and play Gold Glove caliber defense for the next 6 years in Milwaukee.
@Koamalu problem is they apparently plan to use him at shortstop. He is really limited to 2nd base, which isn’t a bad thing in a vacuum, but the Brewers already have a 2nd baseman they like in Keston Hiura.
So? Two years from now MacKensie Gore and Luis Patino will have taken Davies and Lucchesi’s spots in the roatation anyway. C.J. Abrams will be playing either 2B or CF. All three of those will be titanic improvements over the guys we will be losing. Taylor Trammell, Hudson Head for the OF. The Padres will be fine.
“So? Two years from now MacKensie Gore and Luis Patino will have taken Davies and Lucchesi’s spots in the roatation anyway.”
That would still be true even if they never traded for Davies.
“C.J. Abrams will be playing either 2B or CF.”
Not guaranteed to hit in the majors and especially not guaranteed to be as good as Urias.
Hey MikeEmbletonSmellsBad–There are no guarantees in baseball or life (see Corona Virus-19) or in leadership (see Orange Orangutan from the Jungles of Sumatra). Just gotta hope things work out for the best.
Exactly. That’s why trading Urias was stupid.
Davies ERA last year: 3.55 Lifetime: 3.91
Lauer’s ERA last year: 4.45. Lifetime: 4.40
One of these lines is definitely superior. I will give you some time to figure out which one MikeEmbletonSmellsBad.
Also, “(C.J. Abrams) Not guaranteed to hit in the majors and especially not guaranteed to be as good as Urias.”
Did I miss an article or pronouncement? Where is it guaranteed that Urias will hit in the majors? He had a very highly graded bat when he was a prospect. It hasn’t translated to the majors yet. It may someday, it may not. No guarantees. Abrams also has a very highly graded bat. He still is a prospect. Who is more likely to hit? The guy who has already tried and failed, or the guy who has never gotten the chance to try? Again, I will give you some time to think about it. I know, these are very complex concepts!
@Javia…
In terms of stuff and ability to navigate the third time through the lineup, I see Davies and Lauer as pretty similar commodities. And then there’s the aforementioned issue that you so conveniently danced around of Lauer being controlled 3 years longer.
Abrams is 19 and is yet to advance past full season A-ball. Plus there are reports of him getting all pissy when they ask him to play a position other than shortstop. Urias has already made it to the majors and hit very well in the last month of the season or so once they stopped messing with his swing and let him play every day. Who is more likely to hit: the guy who is all projection or the guy who has actually walked the walk before?
I will give YOU some time to think about it.
The one who is more likely to hit is the one who did hit through 540 minor league games, from the Rookie League all the way through AAA, rather than the one whose pro career is 34 games long, 32 of those in Rookie Ball. .
Urias did hit in September / October. It was only one month, but it was a good month. 300/371/425. It definitely does NOT mean he’ll be a better hitter than Abrams, but anyone with even an elementary understanding of probability knows that you’d bet on Urias.
Abrams is a terrific prospect, but he’s a baby. He’s also two years at least away from the majors. Late 2022 would be incredibly fast promotion. If we still had Urias, and Abrams forced his way onto the team, that’s a good problem.
As far as ability to get through a lineup a third time, I don’t know if either one can. That’s not the point. The point is that one has decisively better numbers than the other one. Davies is a better pitcher. Period. I didn’t dance around Lauer’s extra 3 years of control. Preller didn’t care because he is not part of the Padres future. He would be their #6 starter this year, therefore he had no place. We have 5 or even 6 better starters than him RIGHT NOW, with more on the way. He was a candidate to get cut from the rotation and the Padres got a better pitcher for him.
Urias already made it to the majors and hit very well in the last month? Wow! He is a star! Wil Myers also hit oner .400 this spring. Wow! Another star! Urias has not come anywhere close to proving he can hit at the major league level. I love the guy. I hated the trade. I think that if he gets rid of the damn leg-kick he picked up he can go back to being a possible .280-.300 hitter. I don’t think all that talent that so many evaluators saw for years just disappears, but sometimes things just don’t work out. He may hit, he may not. Guaranteed? Not a chance! For proof, just look above to see where Sean Burroughs is mentioned. He was a first round pick with a guaranteed .300 plus bat destined for multiple batting titles. Things didn’t work out that way.
“I didn’t dance around Lauer’s extra 3 years of control.”
Yes you did.
“We have 5 or even 6 better starters than him RIGHT NOW”
Name them.
“Urias already made it to the majors and hit very well in the last month?”
Got better and better every month, the product of getting used to major league pitching and Andy Green finally starting to use him correctly.
“Urias has not come anywhere close to proving he can hit at the major league level.”
He has proven way more than Abrams has.
“I love the guy. I hated the trade.”
Don’t lie.
“I think that if he gets rid of the damn leg-kick he picked up he can go back to being a possible .280-.300 hitter.”
Exactly and that’s what Preller gave up for nothing.
“I don’t think all that talent that so many evaluators saw for years just disappears, but sometimes things just don’t work out.”
And who says they wouldn’t have worked out with Urias?
“Guaranteed? Not a chance!”
Closer to a guarantee than it is with Abrams.
Can you not read?
-Preller didn’t care about Lauer’s extra years of control. He isn’t good enough to start for the Padres anyway. He wanted higher quality, which he got with Davies.
(I feel like I just said this. Obviously bit takes a long time to work it’s way through your thick skull)
-“Name them” Seriously? Richards, Paddack, Lamet, Davies, Lucchesi and Quantrill. I know you love to hate on all things Padre, but ask anybody who knows anything about baseball(and no that does not include you) and they will tell you that Lauer is undoubtedly the worst of those.
-Yes Urias got better every month. He even had 1 month where his offense was above league average, as opposed to well below. 1 month. 80 AB. That means nothing. As I said, Wil Myers hit over .400 in ST.
-Comparing Urias to Abrams? Urias has 80-AB of good production and 183-AB of absolute crap production. That is proof of what exactly?
-“Don’t lie” Are you seriously going to tell ME what I THINK and what I FEEL? How unbelievably stupid and conceited can you get?
Never, EVER try and attribute your opinion to ME!
“Can you not read?”
Mmhm. Can you?
“Preller didn’t care about Lauer’s extra years of control. He isn’t good enough to start for the Padres anyway. He wanted higher quality, which he got with Davies.”
Well we already know Preller can’t be bothered with years of control, hence him throwing guaranteed control of Tatis and Paddack’s 2025 seasons into the garbage for no reason. But anyway, Davies’ stuff is pretty mediocre, much like Lauer’s. This is why they both are only good 2 times through the lineup.
“Seriously? Richards, Paddack, Lamet, Davies, Lucchesi and Quantrill. I know you love to hate on all things Padre, but ask anybody who knows anything about baseball(and no that does not include you) and they will tell you that Lauer is undoubtedly the worst of those.”
You could make a pretty good case for Lauer being better than all of those except Paddack, Lucchesi and maybe Lamet.
“Yes Urias got better every month. He even had 1 month where his offense was above league average, as opposed to well below.”
Exactly. He’s trending up. Grisham is trending down.
“1 month. 80 AB. That means nothing.”
It does when it’s part of a pattern of improvement and you can see where that improvement is coming from.
“Comparing Urias to Abrams? Urias has 80-AB of good production and 183-AB of absolute crap production. That is proof of what exactly?”
And what does Abrams have in the majors? Or even above full-season A-ball?
“Are you seriously going to tell ME what I THINK and what I FEEL? How unbelievably stupid and conceited can you get?”
Can’t have a serious discussion with someone and insult them at the same time. If you would prefer an exchange on insults just say so. I can do that too.
And it’s abundantly clear by the way that you talk about him that you are a Urias hater. You’d be better off just admitting it.
I always have been a big Urias fan.
-Davies IS better than Lauer. The numbers say so loud and clear. If you are too deaf to hear them I cannot help you.
-You can make a case hat Lauer is better than all of those guys? Go ahead, make your case. I would love to see it. Lifetime ERA says he only has the edge on Quantrill, who only has 1/2 season of experience. Quantrill is also trending heavily upwards, as is Lamet. Lauer is not. But go ahead and show me, with numbers not your personal opinions which I already know are worthless.
-Urias could be a good hitter, he just hasn’t shown enough to bet on it yet. And I don’t expect Grisham to be great, just passable. If he is average he is a big improvement over what the Padres used to have. If you are such a big believer in Urias, why don’t you start a poll? See how many people on this site have confidence that he will hit even .280. Love to see you try to prove what you are saying and that would do it. Put your money where your mouth is.
-It is obvious to me that Preller hurt you. You’ll be better off if you just admit it. You have to admit it and forgive him, and yourself, if you ever want to get over the suffering and mental anguish. Perhaps you could join a support group?
“I always have been a big Urias fan.”
Bull. If that were true you wouldn’t choose to delusionally try to defend trading him away for a non-prospect.
“Davies IS better than Lauer. The numbers say so loud and clear. If you are too deaf to hear them I cannot help you. You can make a case hat Lauer is better than all of those guys? Go ahead, make your case. I would love to see it. Lifetime ERA says he only has the edge on Quantrill, who only has 1/2 season of experience.”
ERA is your whole argument for Davies being better than Lauer. So if that is what you want to do then that is completely fine, but you can’t then say that Quantrill is better than Lauer. You think Quantrill will be better than Lauer in the future? Ok. Then I think Lauer and Davies will be about the same going forward. And they will both be better than Garrett Richards. Oh, and Lauer is controlled the longest of the 3.
“Quantrill is also trending heavily upwards, as is Lamet. Lauer is not. But go ahead and show me, with numbers not your personal opinions which I already know are worthless.”
Cal Quantrill’s ERA got worse every month from July to September. Lamet appears to be trending up but I actually had him among the Padres pitchers that are better than Lauer. He’s still going to have to learn to curtail his longball tendencies if he wants to take the next step forward.
“Urias could be a good hitter, he just hasn’t shown enough to bet on it yet.”
Nor has Grisham.
“And I don’t expect Grisham to be great, just passable.”
You don’t trade a guy like Urias for “Just passable.”
“If he is average he is a big improvement over what the Padres used to have.”
Nope.
“If you are such a big believer in Urias, why don’t you start a poll? See how many people on this site have confidence that he will hit even .280. Love to see you try to prove what you are saying and that would do it. Put your money where your mouth is.”
I’m not a site admin so I don’t have the authority to do such things. But I actually did make one in my Facebook group and no one liked giving up Urias.
“It is obvious to me that Preller hurt you. You’ll be better off if you just admit it. You have to admit it and forgive him, and yourself, if you ever want to get over the suffering and mental anguish. Perhaps you could join a support group?”
Ok then. Do you realize that people only tolerate you?
-3 bad starts brought Quantrill’s ERA from 3.32 to 5.12. Maybe he got worn down. It happens to rookies. So fine, maybe Lauer is better than Quantrill. Where does that put Lauer? Starter #6. Lauer still wouldn’t start for the Padres. You think Lauer and Davies will be about the same and both will be better than Richards? Lifetime ERA’s: Richards-3.60 Davies-3.91 Lauer-4.40. The numbers STRONGLY disagree with you. But that’s okay because to you your opinion is all that matters.
-Again, I didn’t like the trade but it filled a need. It is a bad idea to trade a guy like Urias for a guy like Grisham. But he filled 2 major needs, CF and a LHH who can hit RHP.
-“If he is average he is a big improvement over what the Padres used to have.” Nope? Is that supposed to explain anything? Margot hit .234/.304 12-HR 20-SB. Those are well below average numbers. Average would seem to be a significant improvement, no?
-“I did a poll on Facebook and no one liked giving up Urias” Really? Because I did a national poll where 437 professional baseball writers, analysts, scouts and pro coaches voted 46 to 1 against Urias. Of course I am not showing you the exact question I asked or the results, but I am sure you can trust me just as much as I trust you.
If you want to argue with me show me some numbers to support your case. All you keep giving me is your opinion. I already know your opinion and I disagree with it. Now you can either put up some evidence (numbers, stats) or you can just keep spouting your opinion with nothing to back it up. I have provided lots of numbers and stats to support my opinion. You have resorted to arguments such as “Nope” That’s pretty weak.
“3 bad starts brought Quantrill’s ERA from 3.32 to 5.12. Maybe he got worn down. It happens to rookies.”
If that’s the game you want to play, I can take out Lauer’s 3 worst starts in 2019 (specifically, the 3 starts he made in Coors Field) and that brings his 2019 ERA down to a MUCH more palatable 3.63.
“You think Lauer and Davies will be about the same and both will be better than Richards? Lifetime ERA’s: Richards-3.60 Davies-3.91 Lauer-4.40. The numbers STRONGLY disagree with you.”
That’s what they have done, not what they will do. We don’t know how Richards will look as he distances himself from Tommy John surgery but in his few appearances in late 2019 it was not good. And now that Lauer doesn’t have to pitch in Coors Field anymore I like his chances.
“Again, I didn’t like the trade but it filled a need. It is a bad idea to trade a guy like Urias for a guy like Grisham. But he filled 2 major needs, CF and a LHH who can hit RHP.”
1. It created an even bigger need over at 2nd base. 2. Grisham doesn’t fill that need because you actually have to be good to fill it. Plus he graded out much better defensively in RF than in CF.
“Margot hit .234/.304 12-HR 20-SB. Those are well below average numbers. Average would seem to be a significant improvement, no?”
And yet, Margot posted a 1.6 WAR compared to Grisham’s 0.6 WAR. And you can’t even use the excuse that Grisham spent most of the season in the minors. If you extrapolate Grisham’s performance out to a full season, he comes in with 1.8 WAR. So better than Margot, sure. But not by much.
“Really? Because I did a national poll where 437 professional baseball writers, analysts, scouts and pro coaches voted 46 to 1 against Urias. Of course I am not showing you the exact question I asked or the results, but I am sure you can trust me just as much as I trust you.”
Frankly I don’t care if you believe me or not. I was there. I know what happened.
“If you want to argue with me show me some numbers to support your case. All you keep giving me is your opinion.”
Oh, I’ve given you plenty of facts. You just don’t like them so you dismiss them.
Numbers MikeEmbletonSmellsBad. Numbers. I would love to see some from you. Your opinion means nothing. Numbers provide evidence. Got any?
See last comment.
Urias is gone and he’ll be a lifetime .235 ave, He’s on the IL now with a arm problem not good sign. At least Profar has some power.
@nowheretogobutup that is one Hell of a crystal ball you got there!
And everyone has power these days. We need guys who can get on base. Guys like… well… Luis Urias.
The surgery was on his hamate bone, which is fairly common and usually doesn’t have long term effects. It’s not an elbow or shoulder.
Profar has been below-average every year but 2018. In 2018 he was just average and people act like it was a breakout year. Profar’s power is way less valuable than somebody who could get on base.
The key problem with trading Urias is that it didn’t need to happen. He was more valuable than Grisham when the trade was made, even if Grisham ends up being more productive.
Preller could have traded for Grisham / Davies with Lauer / Someone Not Urias (Austin Allen?), waited for Oakland to DFA his beloved Profar and signed him to a minor league deal, then done the same with Dozier. THEN you see how everybody looks in the spring and if you get a good offer for Urias, MAYBE you make it.
Pham is in town to give Taylor Trammell time to develop, to mentor young guys like Grisham, and to try to light a fire under Myers and Hosmer. Profar is a stopgap along with Dozier until the next big phenom (CJ Abrams) is ready. Davies fills a hole until Patiño and big unit 2.0 are in town. I think Cronenworth will be just fine.
They. Didn’t. Have. To. Trade. For. Profar. First. In. Order. For. CJ. Abrams. To. Pan. Out. Later. On.
Yes indeed.
The Profars of the world are a dime a dozen (not really, but in MLB terms). Oakland was far more likely to DFA him than to find anyone other than Preller to make a trade.
A big part of Preller’s justification for signing Hosmer — a really bad idea — was Hosmer’s leadership.
If he needed to bring in somebody else to light a fire under Hosmer, it’s a serious indictment of Preller’s original decision. As if anything more than Hosmer’s subpar play was needed.
The Profar trade went down because AJ Preller likes his ex-Rangers. He’s a Padre for the same reason that Tingler is the manager.
I agree with your take, Javia. Wish Padres would have Taylor Trammell in the outfield at some point in 2020’s short season. Ditto for Abrams in ’21 in CF or at 2B. Hudson Head and Edward Olivares are my choices for the next wave of Padres outfielders. Gore and Pitino are gonna put the hurt on opposing lineups.
Abrams making the majors in 2021 would have been almost impossible. That’s a Tatis Jr pace, and we already got that lucky one time.
The reduced playing time caused by the pandemic will affect every prospect’s timeline. A half year of development, at least, gone.
Very sneaky upside and I think a better relative floor than Cordero/Reyes were ever going to give them considering they are a NL team – The eye is not bad here, with some continued improvements I can see a 340 obp 830 ops Of with some speed…. I really liked this move and the subsequent move to trade Margot for Pagan- Nice reshuffling of the cards
Padres need a new, experienced GM.
Experienced: That would be Dave Dombrowski
Or a Newer GM Hire whoever is running Tampa Bay Rays
The current Padres GM cannot put together a championship contender..
Preller has made some boneheaded moves as GM, no doubt about it. Scott Boras suckered him badly on the Hosmer contract. Some of his early trades reminded me of fantasy baseball.
On the other hand, he traded for Tatis and Paddack. And he is getting a little smarter. I thought sure he’d throw serious money at someone like MadBum or Felix Hernandez to shore up the pitching staff. Instead he traded Lauer, who sucked against everyone last year except the Dodgers, for Zach Davies, who is solid if unspectacular.
Felix only got $1m. If Preller had to give him “serious money” to get him to sign it would be an indictment of how players feel about the Padres.
King Felix has a lot of mileage on his arm, His velocity is way down, Felix is not worth a big contract at this point. If he reinvents himself and produces, then maybe in the future, but not now..
AJ has made some good moves and some very bad moves….If he doesn’t get the Padres to the playoffs soon, he could be history.
Even with the Dodgers in the same Division, the Padres, with its loaded farm system, should be contending for at least the Wild Card.
With Manny, Tatis, Hosmer and others, they have a solid base of position players. The Padres hey have some stud, young starters who will be very good. The Padres always seem to have a very good bullpen from all the guys they have traded (set up guys and closers).
Hosmer was an overpay.
I can’t see why they traded 2B Luis Urias who at 22 has the talent to be a star(to the Brewers). And, that Cleveland deal where the Padres gave up a top rated starting prospect(Logan Allen) and an OF that hits 30 Home runs (Franmil Reyes) for an underperforming minor leaguer (Taylor Trammell) made zero sense to me?! If your team is trading top, young impact talent, then you better get at least equal or better, young impact talent back….I don’t see that the Padres did that either in the Brewers or Indians deals. At least a guy like Dombrowski or the Rays front office, get impact players back when they make deals that moves their teams needle to playoffs contention…
Why would you even mention Eric Hosmer among the “solid base of position players?” He is not good. At all.
A long term, nearly immovable contract might be the definition of a solid base? Taking a wild guess here….
Wrong sir, Hosmer hits close to .300 ave against RH pitchers so he platoons with Myers at first, OF Pham, Trent, Almonte and choice of two others on the cusp., maybe Cordero if he can hit ML pitching.
Hosmer .781 OPS against righties last year. Not good from a guy making $20m playing a non-premium defensive position. The other GM’s are laughing at Preller for signing him.
Preller will get bounced and Pads will begin again – A franchise with lousy judgement. Did Preller ever play Little League?
I agree if AJ doesn’t come in at .500 for the season or better he is gone. Dombrowski is available he’s a bit of a fast draw but brings in WS rings. If there is baseball this season I would say it will start up again in mid June and go through Oct. with playoffs played in neutral sites stadium with domes through early Dec.