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MLB Hoping To Stage Regular Season Games At Home Parks In 2020

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We’ve heard of a handful of ideas about ways in which MLB could look to bring back games in 2020. Many have involved centralizing teams in a few states, perhaps with temporary league and divisional realignment. MLB’s “preferred plan,” however, is to stage as many games as possible in teams’ current home parks, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Those games would still be without fans, of course, at least at the beginning of the season.

Should play in home stadiums prove feasible, the schedule would be designed to limit travel, Topkin adds. Teams would primarily be pitted against opponents from within one’s division and the other league’s corresponding division. (So, AL East teams would predominantly face division rivals as well as NL East opponents, NL Central teams would see a heavy dose of the AL Central, etc.). Previously considered ideas, including centralizing all thirty teams in Arizona or arranging groups in Arizona, Florida and Texas, are now “less likely” and “being downplayed or dismissed,” Topkin notes.

MLB was already considering staging spring training games at home parks, but orchestrating the regular season from teams’ home bases would be a more significant undertaking. If possible, it would offer some stability the other proposals would not have. Players and their families would be able to live in their teams’ home cities, rather than moving to a central location for a few months. Players would still have to abide by social distancing requirements, but they wouldn’t be quarantined. MLB wouldn’t necessarily have to consider drastic structural realignment, although an expanded postseason would be a possibility, Topkin adds. And even without fans in attendance, there could be some comfort for TV viewers in seeing teams at familiar confines.

Regardless of where and when MLB attempts to return to action, there’d be myriad challenges. Coronavirus testing needs to be available to players and staff. The league needs to have contingency plans in place in case someone involved tests positive. Players would no doubt have to ramp up quickly in an abbreviated spring training 2.0. There remains massive uncertainty.

Optimism is building around the league that some portion of the season can be salvaged, though. It seems the hope is that’ll be possible without needing to gather teams at a few central locations.

How Worried Should The Cardinals Be About Paul Goldschmidt?

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The Cardinals reached the 2019 NLCS on the strength of their pitching and defense, as the team’s offensive efforts could best be described as middle of the pack.  After letting Marcell Ozuna leave in free agency and trading Jose Martinez to the Rays, St. Louis did more to subtract than add from the lineup during the offseason, as Brad Miller and the re-signed Matt Wieters were the only position players inked to Major League contracts.

Young players like Tommy Edman, Harrison Bader, Lane Thomas, Tyler O’Neill, and (eventually) top prospect Dylan Carlson are expected to make up some of this offensive slack as they grow into being big league regulars.  If and when the 2020 season gets underway, however, the Cards are also counting on several underachieving veteran bats — i.e. Dexter Fowler, Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina — to get back to form.

At the very least, Paul Goldschmidt performed markedly better than that group.  The six-time All Star’s first season in St. Louis saw him hit .260/.346/.476 with 34 homers over 682 plate appearances.  This worked out to a 113 OPS+ and 116 wRC+, both of which ranked second on the team (behind Edman) among Cards batters with at least 349 PA.  Goldschmidt also came up big in the Cardinals’ five-game triumph over the Braves in the NLDS, posting a 1.383 OPS over 23 plate appearances to help lead St. Louis to its first postseason series victory since 2014.

All in all, it was a very solid showing for a veteran hitter in his age-31 season.  However, “very solid” is not what the Cardinals were expecting from Goldschmidt, especially given their major investment in his future during the 2018-19 offseason.

The Cards paid a hefty price to acquire Goldschmidt from the Diamondbacks in December 2018, sending Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly, minor league infielder Andy Young, and a Competitive Balance Round B pick in the 2020 draft (that 75th overall pick was used on Dominic Fletcher, a strong defensive outfielder ranked by MLB Pipeline as the 20th-best prospect in Arizona’s farm system).  It was a lot to give up for just one year of Goldschmidt’s services, though the Cardinals kept the slugger away from free agency by signing him to a five-year, $130MM extension last spring, locking Goldschmidt up for the 2020-24 seasons.

It was the priciest contract in Cardinals history, topping the seven-year, $120MM deal given to Matt Holliday in the 2009-10 offseason.  The Holliday contract, incidentally, is widely considered to be one of the best nine-figure free agent deals in baseball history — entering his age-30 season at the time of the agreement, Holliday remained a very productive player until almost the very end of the seven-year pact, as injuries began to take their toll.  He was limited to 703 PA over the last two seasons (2015-16) of his Cardinals contract, though Holliday still managed a 113 OPS+ and 115 wRC+ during that stretch.

Some might call this a “very solid showing” for an injury-plagued Holliday in his age 35-36 seasons….especially considering that it essentially matched what the 31-year-old Goldschmidt did over only slightly fewer plate appearances in 2019.

Granted, that observation is probably better served to illustrate that Holliday was a very underrated player moreso than it was to hint that Goldschmidt is already in a decline phase.  Still, considering how sharply Goldschmidt’s 2019 numbers dropped off from his superstar-level production in Arizona, the Cardinals can’t be happy about already having to consider if he has already peaked.

From 2013-18, Goldschmidt batted .301/.406/.541 over 3944 PA for the Diamondbacks, hitting 181 homers and posting a 149 wRC+/150 OPS+.  His 2019 campaign, therefore, marked easily the worst season of seven-year span, and Goldschmidt also posted the lowest batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, walk rate (11.4%), and BABIP (.302) of those seven years in 2019, while generating his second-highest strikeout rate (24.3%).

As per Statcast numbers that date back to 2015, Goldschmidt also posted his lowest hard-hit ball rate (42.4%), exit velocity (90.1 mph) and xwOBA (.361) of the Statcast era.  His xwOBA is higher than his .346 wOBA, however, and since Goldschmidt had never previously enjoyed less than a .340 BABIP in any of his full Major League seasons, there is some element of bad luck to his 2019 results.  As MLBTR’s Connor Byrne pointed out last July, however, Goldschmidt’s sprint speed has been in decline as he has gotten older, which has been borne out in his dwindling stolen base totals and, by extension, his ability to beat out grounders and keep up those inflated BABIP numbers.

Connor’s piece (titled “The Surprisingly Disappointing Paul Goldschmidt”) was published on July 2….which, in classic reverse-jinx form, ended up being just about the nadir of Goldschmidt’s season.  After posting a .742 OPS from Opening Day through July 2, Goldschmidt proceeded to hit .274/.354/.554 over his final 326 PA.  It marked the second straight year that Goldschmidt rebounded from tough beginning to a season, as he had only a .721 OPS through his first 243 plate appearances of the 2018 campaign before crushing it to the tune of a whopping 1.040 OPS over his 447 remaining PA.

It’s possible St. Louis could look at those 2018 numbers and think that Goldschmidt might just be evolving into a slow-start type of player.  And again, it should be noted that Goldschmidt in no way was a bad player in 2019, with a 2.9 fWAR.  The issue is that the Cardinals were certainly counting on Goldschmidt’s prime to last at least a couple of years into his extension, not see it potentially already end before his extension even begins.

As a what-if, let’s imagine Goldschmidt hadn’t inked that new deal with the Cards and instead tested free agency.  On the heels of his 2019 performance and going into his age-32 season, he wouldn’t have come anywhere close to five years and $130MM on the open market.  Jose Abreu was the only other major name in the first base market, and the unusual nature of Abreu’s relationship with the White Sox makes him something of an outlier rather than as a Goldschmidt comp.  Abreu openly wanted to remain in Chicago, to the point that he accepted the team’s one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer and then signed a further extension through the 2022 season (an extra two years and $32.2MM).

Abreu is a year older than Goldschmidt and doesn’t have such a long track record of elite performance.  Yet, considering how many felt the White Sox were generous in their extension with Abreu, could something in the neighborhood of a three-year guarantee for $50MM-$60MM have been Goldschmidt’s ceiling in free agency?  Teams are less willing than ever to pay a premium for anything below top-level offense from a first base-only player, and it’s likely multiple clubs would have been worried by Goldschmidt’s 2019.

Plus, a qualifying offer would have also been attached to Goldschmidt’s services, and it’s not out of the question that he could have himself accepted the $17.8MM QO as a form of a pillow contract.  On the other hand, he also might have been wary about leaving any further potential long-term money on the table since his early-career extension with the Diamondbacks ended up being a bargain for the club.  Goldschmidt and his representatives might have looked for a multi-year deal that, ideally, contained an opt-out after the first year, allowing Goldschmidt to re-enter the market if he did indeed prove that 2019 was an aberration.

In any case, the qualifying offer could have potentially helped the Cardinals in re-signing Goldschmidt at a much lower price than $130MM.  Or, while walking away from Goldschmidt entirely would have been bold given how much they sent to the D’Backs, the Cards could have looked elsewhere and, in this scenario, had $130MM in future funds to allocate to another offensive player.  Perhaps St. Louis could have made a big push for Anthony Rendon, or maybe outbid the Twins for Josh Donaldson (a longtime Cardinals target).

It’s all total speculation, of course, as Goldschmidt is on the Cards’ books through the 2024 season.  Of all the veterans St. Louis is relying on once baseball eventually gets underway, the length and cost of Goldschmidt’s contract make him the player the Cardinals most strongly hope can get back on track.

Anthopoulos Discusses Acquiring Troy Tulowitzki In 2015

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In a recent radio appearance on Sportsnet 590 The Fan’s Lead Off show (audio link available, with geographic restrictions), current Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos discussed one of the signature moves from his tenure as the Blue Jays’ general manager — namely, the blockbuster trade that brought Troy Tulowitzki and LaTroy Hawkins from the Rockies to the Jays in July 2015, with Jose Reyes and three well-regarded pitching prospects going to Colorado.

Anthopoulos said initial talks with the Rockies began during the 2014-15 offseason, as “we had concerns with Jose Reyes’ defense at the end of 2014.”  Reyes was coming off a rough year of glovework, posting a minus -3.3 UZR/150 and minus-14 Defensive Runs Saved over 1243 2/3 innings as Toronto’s shortstop.  As per those two metrics, Reyes had been a subpar defender for multiple seasons, though Anthopoulos said the decline in the shortstop’s range was becoming a particular issue for the Jays.

By comparison, Tulowitzki was a much more accomplished defender, in the eyes of both the advanced metrics and in terms of hardware (two Gold Gloves and three Fielding Bible Awards between 2007-11).  The +4.2 UZR/150 and +2 DRS that Tulowitzki posted in 2015 made him a major upgrade over Reyes — as Anthopoulos noted, Tulowitzki didn’t make a single error as a Blue Jay during the 2015 regular season and postseason.

After a loss to the Phillies on July 28, 2015, the day of the Tulowitzki deal, Toronto had only a 50-51 record and sat eight games out of first place in the AL East.  Anthopoulos still felt confident that his club could break out, however: “We lost a ton of games just because we were not playing good defense, and all the pieces were there to have a great team.”

Anthopoulos cited Tulowitzki and Ben Revere (picked up in a less-heralded deadline day deal with the Phillies) as major elements to the defensive turnaround, and of course the Jays’ other headline-grabbing trade to land David Price from the Tigers also helped on the run-prevention front.  The rest was history — after that July 28 loss to Philadelphia, the Blue Jays went on a 43-18 tear over the rest of the regular season to clinch the team’s first AL East title and playoff berth since 1993.

“For me, the key was just shoring up the defense across the board,” Anthopoulos said.  “From Tulo, to getting Ben Revere in left and not having Chris Colabello and [Danny] Valencia on the corners in the outfield when [Jose] Bautista was out DHing.  Just becoming a better defensive club, that really made the whole team get to where we should have been the entire year, when you’re looking at runs scored [and] runs against.”

While things obviously worked out for Toronto, losing Reyes was no small issue to his former teammates.  “It’s not like the clubhouse was elated…we knew they would be jarred” Anthopoulos said, adding that Reyes’ “work ethic was fantastic” and that the shortstop was “so well-liked without our clubhouse.”

Still, some version of Reyes-for-Tulowitzki was a constant within the Jays’ talks with the Rockies, as Anthopoulos said “we were adamant that Reyes had to be part of the deal going back.”  Beyond the practical element of filling each team’s need at shortstop, including Reyes in the trade helped offset some of the added financial costs Toronto faced in taking on Tulowitzki’s contract.  Tulowitzki was owed a minimum of $98MM from 2016-20, while Reyes earned $48MM through the 2017 season — two seasons of salary and then a $4MM buyout of his $22MM club option for 2018.  As it happened, Reyes forfeited roughly $7.09MM of that salary due to a suspension under the domestic violence, sexual assault, and child abuse policy, and he was released by Colorado in June 2016.

For more on the Tulowitzki trade, Jeff Todd recently took a longer-term view of the transaction as part of MLBTR’s YouTube video series, making the case that it was something of a win-win deal for both the Blue Jays and Rockies, even though “both were left a little bit shy of what they really expected to get.”

Albert Pujols Hasn’t Ruled Out Playing Beyond 2021 Season

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Albert Pujols’ ten-year, $240MM deal with the Angels is set to expire after the 2021 season, and it has been widely assumed that the slugger would retire once that contract is up.  However, while 2021 is “my last year under contract…that doesn’t mean I can’t keep playing,” Pujols told ESPN.com’s Alden Gonzalez.  “I haven’t closed that door.”

It should be observed that Pujols isn’t making a statement about his future in either direction, merely that he isn’t yet ready to make a decision that is still well over a year away.  “I’m taking it day by day, year by year, but you haven’t heard from my mouth that I’m going to retire next year, or that it’s going to be my last year, or that I’m going to keep playing,” Pujols said.  “I haven’t said any of that.  When that time comes, we’ll see.  Just because you have one year left on your contract doesn’t mean it’s your last year.  It could be, but it could not be.  God hasn’t put that in my heart yet.”

2022 will be Pujols’ age-42 season, and he has been beset by both injuries and an overall decline in performance over the last few years.  While surgeries on both his right elbow and left knee in 2018 allowed for Pujols to have his cleanest bill of health in some time last season, it didn’t translate to a resurgence at the plate, as he hit .244/.305/.430 with 23 home runs over 545 plate appearances.  Both Fangraphs (-2.6 fWAR) and Baseball Reference (-0.6 bWAR) rate Pujols as a sub-replacement level player from 2017-19, with Fangraphs giving him a negative fWAR in each of the last three seasons.

Barring a major late-career revival, it is hard to see how there could be much of a market for Pujols if he does wish to keep playing in 2022.  There isn’t much roster value in a 42-year-old who can only play first base — and who will still require regular DH days — and doesn’t offer much with the bat, and one would imagine Pujols might not have much interest in signing with a non-contender just for the sake of continuing to play.

As Gonzalez notes, there are some big statistical milestones still within reach for Pujols, who has 656 career homers (sixth all-time), 2075 RBI (fifth all-time), and 3202 hits (15th all-time).  Since the 2020 season will be greatly abbreviated and possibly canceled altogether, Pujols would surely have to play into 2022 to have a shot at joining Henry Aaron as the only players in the 700-homer/3500-hit club, and potentially break Aaron’s all-time record of 2297 career RBI.

While Pujols would surely love to make an even further impact on baseball’s record book, it remains to be seen if he would actually try to stick around long enough to achieve these benchmarks, especially since it is a foregone conclusion that he’ll be a first-ballot Hall Of Famer.  Of note, Pujols is also in line for a ten-year, $10MM personal services contract with the Angels organization that will kick in as soon as he retires; this deal was arranged when Pujols initially signed with the club.

Quick Hits: Bloom, Draft, Krause, White Sox, Rangers

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Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom described some of the challenges that will come out of the unique circumstances surrounding this year’s MLB Draft in a discussion with the Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald. Bloom’s organization is particularly aware of the value of an additional year of scouting, which allowed the team to select Andrew Benintendi in the first round in 2015—something that probably wouldn’t happen if teams’ exposure was limited to his nondescript freshman season the year before. But that’s precisely the scenario teams find themselves in now: they won’t have the same feel for which draft-eligible players would have taken an additional leap this season and might have to base those judgments on just a few weeks of play. In addition, the shortened format of the draft (no more than 10 rounds) could influence teams’ strategy, especially in the later rounds, where clubs might look to take risks on players who will command more than $20K (the maximum amount for which teams can sign undrafted players). All this means that more high school players might opt to forego pro ball in favor of a collegiate scholarship.

  • Former Chicago Bulls front office executive Jerry Krause has received plenty of scrutiny recently, thanks to ESPN’s Michael Jordan docuseries, “The Last Dance.” But Krause’s tenure as the Bulls’ GM was bookended by a career as a baseball scout, where he worked most prominently with the White Sox. The Chicago Tribune’s Mark Gonzales reflects on Krause’s astute eye and resolution as a scout; he was instrumental in swaying White Sox higher-ups to make a play for shortstop Ozzie Guillen (then a Padres minor-leaguer), who would of course go on to play 13 years and rack up 19.5 WAR with the South Siders—not to mention his role in managing the 2005 World Series team.
  • Beginning May 15, the Rangers will institute pay cuts for some of their full-time employees, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Per Grant, employees above a certain salary threshold will have their pay reduced by roughly 10-20%, which will affect approximately half of the team’s full-time staffers. That said, there won’t be any layoffs or furloughs at this time. A number of high-rankings Rangers execs, including GM Jon Daniels, had already begun taking pay cuts in April, but this round will expand the scope of those measures. They’re one of just a few teams that won’t be paying teams in full through May, with a handful of teams implementing similar pay cuts, while the Rays have furloughed some of their employees.

 

Remembering A Disastrous World Series Performance

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The worst bullpen meltdown of the 2001 World Series was not the one you think. You probably go right to Byung-Hyun Kim blowing saves in games four and five in Yankee Stadium, putting the Diamondbacks on the brink of elimination heading into game six. But that’s not it.

You might also think of Mariano Rivera blowing the save in game seven. Mark Grace singled, Rivera turned a sac bunt attempt into runners on first and second, Tony Womack eventually knocked home the tying run. Then Tim McCarver – without so much as a spoiler alert – laid out exactly what was about to happen like he’d seen it already, and Luis Gonzalez shoveled a ball over the drawn in infield to win the World Series. Just like that, the greatest closer of all time blew game seven of the World Series, ending a Yankee dynasty in its tracks.

But that’s not it either. I’m talking about Jay Witasick’s beautifully disastrous performance in game six.

With the Yankees up three games to two in the 2001 World Series, the series shifted back to Arizona for a critical game six. The Yankees were just one win away from their fourth consecutive World Series championship, while the Diamondbacks, in their fourth season, hadn’t yet existed in a world in which the Yankees were not the champs. Kim’s consecutive blown saves put Arizona in this position, but in game six, it would be the Yankees bullpen that would implode. Though Jay Witasick’s meltdown didn’t come in as high a leverage situation as Kim’s (nor Rivera’s), it was something to behold.

Witasick entered Game 6 with runners on second and third with the Yankees trailing 5-0. It was still early. The game was in reach. Here’s how hitters fared against Witasick that inning:

  • Single to LF
  • Single to LF
  • Single to LF
  • Single to RF
  • Tony Womack strikes out swinging (phew!)
  • Single to CF
  • Double to LF
  • Single to CF
  • Double to CF
  • Reggie Sanders strikes out swinging (finally!)

In a game when the Yankees could have clinched a World Series victory, Joe Torre let Witasick stay in the game to surrender four consecutive hits – twice! – in one inning. By the time Reggie Sanders finally struck out, the Diamondbacks led 12-0. Relievers are often made to wear it the way Witasick did here, but a win in this game meant a World Series title. This wasn’t a normal game. This was the type of game when – normally – you never give up. Witasick’s 8 earned runs tied him with Grover “Pete” Alexander for the most runs ever given up in a World Series game. Alexander took 2 1/3 innings to give up that many in the 1928 World Series against the Yankees. 

Witasick would give up two more hits the next inning (he started another inning!), giving him a final line that looks like this (parents, cover your children’s eyes): 1 ⅓ innings, 10 hits, 9 runs (8 earned), 4 strikeouts. Randy Choate came on and allowed Witasick’s stragglers to score, by which point the Diamondbacks led 15-0. Luis Gonzalez – their consensus best player – was pulled for rest in the bottom of that inning (the 4th inning!). Given the stakes of the game, it’s amazing that Torre allowed Witasick to get shelled the way he did. 

I’ll give Torre this: games four and five of the 2001 World Series went into extra innings, and leading 3 games to 2 going into game six, the Yankees had some cause to pack it in by the time Andy Pettitte left the game without recording an out in the third inning. And it’s not as if Witasick was giving up home runs. These were mostly bleeders through the left side of the infield – but they weren’t totally cheap knocks either. 

On the other hand, when Pettitte exited the game, it was still just a 5-0 deficit in the 3rd inning. Of course, Torre also had reason to doubt whether his offense could come back from a deficit that large. In the first five games of the series combined, the Yankees had scored a total of four runs in innings 1 through 8. Without a pair of clutch ninth-inning home runs from Tino Martinez and Scott Brosius, the Yankees came dangerously close to losing all 7 games of the series (which, of course, would have been impossible). 

Still, Witasick’s ill-fated stint in the third and fourth inning of game 6 stands out as a woeful performance with the season on the line. Witasick put together a solid professional career, pitching for 7 teams over 12 years with a 4.64 ERA/4.69 FIP, and it’s hardly his fault that Torre decided to pack this one in by the third inning, but it’s worth a re-watch nonetheless.

Merrifield Or Kingery?

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Scott Kingery and Whit Merrifield aren’t exactly at the same place in their careers.

Merrifield, 31, led his team in bWAR last season and is considered by many as the best player on their rebuilding club. He’s a late-bloomer, but on the wrong side of thirty nonetheless, with 3.5 seasons under his belt as an above-average player. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently wrote this of Merrifield: “The 31-year-old is one of the better all-around veteran assets in the game, considering his ability to play multiple positions, his inexpensive contract that could extend through the 2023 season, and his three consecutive seasons of strong production.” He boasts a career batting line of .296/.344/.445, good for 109 wRC+.

Kingery, 26, disappointed in a major way in his first shot at the big leagues, but he rebounded last year with an honest effort as a multi-positional asset for the contending Phillies. In just his age-25 season, Kingery posted a line of .258/.315/.474 across 500 plate appearances while socking 19 long balls. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently wrote this: “Kingery had some ups and downs in his second season in the bigs, but ultimately made huge strides and turned in a league-average offensive season.” To this point, Kingery’s career line stands at just .242/.291/.407 – but the former 2nd round pick produced a 101 wRC+ last season. At a similar age, Merrifield was splitting his time between Double and Triple A.

Financially-speaking, both are signed to long-term deals. Because Merrifield debuted on the older side, he signed a very team-friendly deal through potentially his age-34 season. He’ll make $5MM in 2020, $6.75MM in 2021, just $2.75MM in 2022, and the Royals hold a team option for $10.5MM in 2023. Many thought Merrifield would be traded to a contending team this winter, but the Royals love him, and given his contract, there’s no particular rush to move him. By not moving him, they’re missing out on the opportunity to add young talent to the organization, but Merrifield is producing now, and his story is one that might give many Kansas City farmhands hope.

Kingery is signed even longer. The Phillies will pay him $1.75MM in 2020 (in theory), $4.25MM in 2021, $6.25MM in 2022, and $8.25MM in 2023. Philadelphia also holds three team options: $13MM in 2024, $14MM in 2025, and $15MM in 2026.

Kingery’s deal brings a lot more upside, with Merrifield likely brings more near-term value. Given the current standings of the Phillies and Royals, an argument could be made that a straight-up swap of the two multi-positional right-handers makes a lot of sense. Kingery has yet to prove that he can produce a season like Merrfield’s 5.2 bWAR effort in 2018, but he’s also five years younger and signed for a longer period. Their deals, meanwhile, converge in 2023, where a 34-year-old Merrifield would be making more on a one-year deal than the 29-year-old Kingery, who at that point will have three relatively reasonable team options remaining.

Both players boast well-rounded games, with Kingery bringing a bit more pop potential, while Merrifield has superior bat skills. Kingery has swiped 25 bases while only being caught 7 times over his two seasons, while Merrifield led the AL in stolen bases in both 2017 and 2018. Last year, Merrifield’s volume and efficiency fell off a bit as he swiped just 20 bases in 30 chances. Both players have capably moved around the diamond, both infield and outfield. The gap between Merrifield’s 110 wRC+ last season and Kingery’s 101 wRC+ isn’t as great as the perceived talent gap between the two players. If nothing else, assume some age-related regression for Merrifield, while Kingery develops further as he grows into his prime, and don’t these two inch just a little closer?

Merrifield is the quick-trigger choice, but given a comprehensive look at both players, an argument can be made that Kingery is the better asset. All in, which would you prefer to have on your team: Merrifield’s proven qualities or Kingery’s rising upside? Put another way, who has the better asset: the Royals or Phillies?

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Offseason In Review: Baltimore Orioles

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The Orioles kept pretty quiet again this winter. They added a couple veteran stopgaps to temper the timelines of their young players. They also lost two Baltimore mainstays: Dylan Bundy and Mark Trumbo – both of whom had been with the big league club since 2016. Chris Davis and Mychal Givens are the only players left on the roster who have seen postseason action in an Orioles’ uniform.

Guaranteed Contracts

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Orioles are an interesting team from a short-season perspective. They don’t have the depth to compete over a full slate of 162 ballgames, but in some bizarro post-coronavirus tournament? They’re still probably not competitors – but they could be peskier than most suspect. Then again, that goes for all potential cellar-dwellers.

Specific to the Orioles, GM Mike Elias made clear early in the offseason what his priority number one would be: pitching depth. Elias found himself repeatedly scouring other organizations in 2019 for low-cost pitching to stanch the bleeding, and he didn’t want the O’s to be in that position again. Rushing minor-league talent to fill the void is not a palatable option for Elias. His offseason focus wasn’t so much about building a talent base in the majors as it was about protecting the future talent from the ill effects of hurried development. In that very-limited scope, Elias’ plan is sound. So while fans might not get goose bumps over the Orioles’ new arms, in this context, Tommy Milone and Wade LeBlanc are legitimate gets.

Milone has pitched in the majors in every season since 2011, and he very well might lead the majors in earned travel miles over that span. After making his debut with the Nationals, Milone pitched for the A’s for 2 1/2 years and Twins for 2 1/2 years, ably filling a rotation slot with a 4.14 ERA/4.36 FIP. 2017 was less kind as he produced lackluster results with the Brewers and Mets before taking a second turn with the Nats in 2018. Last season, however, Milone turned back the clock a tad, providing 111 2/3 innings of 4.76 ERA/5.00 FIP ball for the Mariners. Similar production would suit the Orioles’ needs just fine in 2020, especially under the conditions of a shortened season. It’s pretty darn close to a lateral move from, say, Aaron Brooks, one of last season’s stopgaps, but important nonetheless for the pitching-poor Orioles.

LeBlanc has a longer track record, but of similar shape and sound to Milone’s career. LeBlanc started his career with the Padres from 2008 to 2011. From there he went to the Marlins to the Astros, before boomeranging in 2014 from the Angels to the Yankees and back to the Angels again in the span of the 2014 season. He missed all of 2015, rehabbed with the Blue Jays’ Triple-A team in 2016 before reappearing in the majors for the Mariners and Pirates. “Boomerang” LeBlanc returned to the Mariners in 2018, where he enjoyed a semblance of stability for a pair of seasons, going 15-12 with a 4.57 ERA/4.80 FIP across 283 1/3 innings.

No, LeBlanc, 35, and Milone, 33, aren’t the same pitcher, but you’d be forgiven for getting them confused. 4.46 ERA to 4.47 ERA, 4.68 FIP to 4.58 FIP, 6.6 K/9 to 6.7 K/9. Both are among the absolute softest-tossers in the league, with Milone’s fastball averaging 87.1 mph, while LeBlanc, according to Statcast, has a “heater” that averages 86.3 mph (though he only throws it 5.7% of the time). Here’s a fun fact: LeBlanc appears in the 0th percentile for fastball velocity. Call it a case of baseball rubbernecking, but I personally would love to see a rotation with Milone, LeBlanc, and John Means, whose 91.7 mph fastball may look downright Johnsonian in comparison.

Whether either or both makes the team, let alone the rotation, is still very much in doubt (before the coronavirus craziness, MASN’s Roch Kubatko thought LeBlanc a lock to make the roster). Fellow newcomer Kohl Stewart might be a safer bet to line up behind Means, Alex Cobb and Asher Wojciechowski – though not because of his track record. Stewart comes from sturdier prospect stock as the fourth overall pick of the 2013 draft, and he’s still just 25-years-old. He arrives in Baltimore with just 62 big league innings and a matching 4.79 ERA/FIP.

On paper, Stewart is a fine low-cost gamble for a team like the Orioles, but whether or not he’s actually worth a look will depend on what the Orioles see in him that the Twins did not. If it’s just a paper gambit, there’s not a ton in Stewart’s recent history to get all that excited about – not with just 1.31 K/BB and a long list of injuries that have sapped him of his once-strong potential. But if they can improve his pitch sequencing, there may still exist some version of top-prospect Stewart to unearth. On the whole, these arms  (Milone, LeBlanc, Stewart) were brought in specifically to keep younger arms out of the fire, but if/when the O’s tire of this approach, they have a number of hurlers in the upper minors to keep on your rookie radar.

On the offensive end, the most obvious plus from the 2019 season hit the most worrying snag possible: Trey Mancini doesn’t expect to play baseball in 2020, not after a Stage III Colon Cancer diagnosis. Read his piece in the Players’ Tribune, however, and you’ll be more encouraged about Baltimore baseball than before. Mancini hit .291/.364/.535 with 35 home runs, 106 runs and 97 RBIs in 2019. His 3.5 bWAR/3.6 fWAR (132 wRC+) places him in legitimate All-Star territory, even if that distinction was bestowed upon Means in 2019. If there’s baseball in 2020, Mancini will be missed.

But if Mancini can find the silver lining in his diagnosis, we can find it for the on-field Orioles. Playing time is a limited commodity – more so in 2020 than usual – and Mancini’s absence means ample opportunities for other Orioles to establish their credibility. Our own George Miller wrote about Anthony Santander as a potential breakout candidate, and he might be the most direct beneficiary of Mancini’s absence. But waiver claims like Pat Valaika or Andrew Velazquez could see the trickle down effect while coming off the bench. Velazquez, in particular, impressed manager Brandon Hyde and his staff this spring. DJ Stewart is another candidate to see time keeping Mancini’s spot warm, along with Dwight Smith Jr., Cedric Mullins, Ryan McKenna or Yusniel Diaz.

Ryan Mountcastle could also eventually make the big league club and see time either at first, third, DH, or the outfield. Mountcastle is in the conversation as the best power hitter in the Orioles’ system, and he might be the first of a new wave of Orioles’ prospects to get excited about. He just needs a defensive position.

On the dirt, the Orioles should feature a mostly new middle infield. Richie Martin and Jonathan Villar saw the most time up the middle in 2019. Villar finds himself in a Marlins’ uniform these days, while Martin will have to earn his keep to stay on the major league roster. Last year’s Rule 5 selection could use seasoning time in the minors, though he will compete for a roster spot. Moving on from Villar was somewhat surprising, even if his price tag was getting a little high ($8.2MM in 2020). It’s not as if the Orioles have a ton of financial commitments on the roster, and he’d been a rare plus on the offensive end (107 wRC+). Still, he has just one season left of control, and there might not have been much action on the trade market. Elias did well to at least get something in return for Villar, though Easton, a 23-year-old 14th-round draft pick from 2019, does feel like a light return.

In their stead, Jose Iglesias and Hanser Alberto figure to get most of the playing time up the middle. Iglesias brings a steady glove and consistent major league production to a lineup sorely lacking in veteran experience. But he’s also a textbook second division starter, never having produced more than 2.5 bWAR in a single season, and just as often coming up shy of the 2.0 bWAR mark. Still, his glove should help.

Alberto hit .305/.329/.422 last season, a breakout of sorts of the versatile infielder. Parts of three previous seasons with the Rangers produced a mere .192/.210/.231 line. Even the current version of Alberto isn’t a clear plus on that end (96 wRC+), not with a 2.9% BB%, even if he does put the ball in play (9.1% K%).

Alberto and Iglesias don’t have a real firm hold on their positions atop the depth chart (although it’s not as if Ramon Urias, Dilson Herrera, Stevie Wilkerson and Jose Rondon are beating the door down). Velazquez may steal some at-bats, though like Alberto, he can move around the diamond, and there’s probably room for both in 2020. Richard Urena – a waiver claim from the Blue Jays – is a semi-interesting name to keep in mind. He didn’t impress enough over his time in Toronto to keep a 40-man spot, and most of the buzz around him comes from his strong showings in rookie ball. But if the switch-hitting infielder were ever to walk at the rate he did back then, he could develop into a useful bat as he enters his prime years. For now, however, he’ll start the year with Triple-A Norfolk.

Lastly, the Orioles said goodbye to Mark Trumbo and Dylan Bundy, two of their longest-tenured players. Trumbo and the Orioles had some good times, but health issues and too much of an all-or-nothing approach limited his utility. Orioles fans can look back fondly on his first year in orange and black, however, when Trumbo hit .256/.316/.533 as the AL’s home run king. He slugged 47 long balls in 2016 as a big part of that Wild Card team. Unfortunately for both team and player, Trumbo came nowhere close to repeating that production in the three years since (.242/.295/.413 with 40 home runs across 992 plate appearances). Trumbo appeared in just 12 games in 2019. At 34-years-old, there’s a decent chance he’s played his last game in the majors.

Bundy was a much-heralded prospect coming up, appearing for the first time for two appearances as a 19-year-old way back in 2012. He didn’t reappear in the majors until 2016, and he never quite took off. He finished his Baltimore career with a 38-45 record across 127 games with a 4.67 ERA/4.75 FIP. Still just 27-years-old, Bundy will look to join a long list of former Orioles to find their groove elsewhere. Elias sent Bundy to the Angels for four pitchers. None are huge prospects, with Kyle Bradish the highest ranked, landing as the Orioles #22 prospect (per Fangraphs). Isaac Mattson lands at #31, Zach Peek at #37, while Kyle Brnovich does not rank. There’s not an obvious star there, but the Orioles need prospects of all shapes and sizes, and there’s something to be said for returning three ranked arms and a flyer for a back-end starter (*though not all outlets include the four on the O’s top-30 prospects list).

2020 Outlook

For those not paying attention, you might assume the Orioles were the worst team in baseball again in 2019. But the Tigers swooped in and took that title, leaving the 108-loss Orioles without a distinction on which to hang their hats. It’s not as flashy, but we’ll give them this: the Orioles had the 4th largest year-over-year improvement from 2018 to 2019 in the American League. Their 7-win improvement (from 47 to 54 wins) outpaced all but the Twins, White Sox, and Rangers in that department. If Manager Brandon Hyde can just quadruple that feat in 2020, why, they’d be over .500. More likely, the Orioles are ticketed for a fourth consecutive season in the AL East basement.

How would you grade the Orioles’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

Quick Hits: Rays, Franco, Gibbons, Phillies, Harper, Storen

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Wander Franco has apparently heard some of the positive chatter around his game. MLB Insider Hector Gomez tweets that Franco fully expects to have $300MM in front of him within four years. Of course, baseball economics make that a somewhat suspect goal, as there’s a decent chance Franco will not be arbitration eligible yet in that timespan, and even if he were, the largest contract given out by the Rays is the six-year, $100MM deal given to Evan Longoria. It’s hard to imagine them tripling that high overnight. And yet, if there were a guy to prompt such spending, Franco might be the one. The Rays’ 19-year-old shortstop has a hit tool that scouts are raving about in no uncertain terms. The youngster hit an absurd .318/.390/.506 in Single A last season against competition an average of more than 3 years his elder. Franco’s on-field performance thus far certainly merits bawdy talk, and in an open market, there’s no telling how much Franco might earn today. While Franco’s stock continues to appreciate, let’s check in elsewhere around the league…

  • Former Blue Jays manager John Gibbons has been vocal about his desire to get back into a major league clubhouse. He hasn’t gotten much traction, however, despite efforts on his part to dispel certain assumptions about his managerial style. Gibbons doesn’t agree with his reputation around the league, which considers him an old-school type, non-adept with analytics and better-suited to a veteran clubhouse. He had reached out to a number of teams with openings this offseason, but couldn’t even secure himself an interview. Not until the Astros’ position became available, writes The Star’s Gregor Chisholm. The role ultimately went to Dusty Baker, returning Gibbons to his current role as a scout for the Braves. Gibbons will continue to reach out to clubs with managerial openings.
  • Drew Storen has been through a lot in his baseball life, from an undefeated high school season alongside teammate Lance Lynn, to anchoring the bullpen on early Nats contenders that featured a young Bryce Harper, to Tommy John surgery in 2017 that stuck his career in the mud, writes Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. While in camp with the Phillies this spring, Storen had a couple of major takeaways. First was how much he enjoyed playing the game. Second was how much Harper has grown as a leader since his early days with the Nats. And third was that Storen actually had a pretty decent chance of making the team. Being released by the Royals last June lit a fire for Storen, reminding him the type of urgency and intention it would take to return to the big leagues. He went to work at Driveline in an effort to build his arm enough to make a major league bullpen. Storen looked good this spring, with a 3.60 ERA over 5 innings with 5 strikeouts and zero walks.

Which Current Managers Had The Most Productive Playing Careers?

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For the most part, if you’re a manager in Major League Baseball, it means that you played in the bigs earlier in your life. Out of the game’s current 30 skippers, only seven fell short of the majors. That list consists of the Orioles’ Brandon Hyde, the Angels’ Joe Maddon, the Braves’ Brian Snitker, the Mets’ Luis Rojas, the Cardinals’ Mike Shildt, the Pirates’ Derek Shelton and the Padres’ Jayce Tingler. Of course, no MLB experience as a player doesn’t mean you’ll fail as a manager (just ask the resoundingly successful Maddon). Nevertheless, with baseball shut down and so little going on in the sport, I figured it would be interesting to see which current managers accumulated the most value when they played. Keep in mind that we’re only using one metric (fWAR), which certainly isn’t the end-all, be-all, and this doesn’t take factors such as intangibles and playoff performance into account (some of these guys produced some memorable postseason moments). However, fWAR does give at least a general idea about the kinds of careers these managers had as players (and here’s a fun fact: There’s only one ex-pitcher here). Take a look…

  • Don Mattingly, Marlins (first baseman for the Yankees from 1982-95): 40.7 fWAR in 7,721 plate appearances
  • Dusty Baker, Astros (outfielder for the Braves, Dodgers, Giants and Athletics from 1968-86): 37.9 fWAR in 8,021 plate appearances
  • David Ross, Cubs (catcher for the Cubs, Red Sox, Braves, Dodgers, Reds, Pirates and Padres from 2002-16): 22.4 fWAR in 2,644 plate appearances
  • Bud Black, Rockies (left-hander for the Mariners, Royals, Indians, Blue Jays and Giants from 1981-95): 18.2 fWAR in 2,053 1/3 innings
  • Dave Martinez, Nationals (outfielder for the Cubs, Expos, Rays, White Sox, Giants, Braves, Rangers, Reds and Blue Jays from 1986-2001): 18.1 fWAR in 6,48 plate appearances
  • Craig Counsell, Brewers (infielder for the Rockies, Marlins, Diamondbacks, Brewers and Dodgers from 1995-2011): 17.6 fWAR in 5,484 plate appearances
  • David Bell, Reds (infielder for the Phillies, Cardinals, Mariners, Indians, Giants and Brewers from 1995-2006): 13.5 fWAR in 5,380 plate appearances
  • Dave Roberts, Dodgers (outfielder for the Indians, Dodgers, Red Sox, Padres, Giants from 1999-2008): 10.3 fWAR in 3,092 plate appearances
  • Aaron Boone, Yankees (infielder for the Reds, Yankees, Indians, Marlins, Nationals and Astros from 1997-2009): 10.0 fWAR from 1997-2009
  • Rocco Baldelli, Twins (outfielder for the Rays and Red Sox from 2003-10): 8.0 fWAR in 2,065 plate appearances
  • Joe Girardi, Phillies (catcher for the Yankees, Cubs, Cardinals and Rockies from 1989-2003): 5.6 fWAR in 4,535 plate appearances
  • Gabe Kapler, Giants (outfielder for the Tigers, Rangers, Rockies, Red Sox, Brewers and Rays from 1998-2010): 5.4 fWAR in 3,315 plate appearances
  • Scott Servais, Mariners (catcher for the Astros, Cubs, Giants and Rockies from 1991-2001): 4.9 fWAR in 2,778 plate appearances
  • Ron Roenicke, Red Sox (outfielder for the Dodgers, Phillies, Giants, Padres, Reds and Mariners from 1981-88): 3.6 fWAR in 1,294 plate appearances
  • Mike Matheny, Royals (catcher for the Brewers, Blue Jays, Cardinals and Giants from 1994-2006): 2.8 fWAR in 4,287 plate appearances
  • Bob Melvin, Athletics (catcher for the Tigers, Giants, Orioles, Royals, Red Sox and White Sox from 1985-94): 2.5 fWAR in 2,095 plate appearances
  • Ron Gardenhire, Tigers (shortstop for the Mets from 1981-85): 0.9 fWAR in 777 plate appearances
  • Chris Woodward, Rangers (shortstop for the Blue Jays, Mets, Mariners, Braves and Red Sox from 1999-2011): 0.7 fWAR in 1,986 plate appearances
  • Charlie Montoyo, Blue Jays (second baseman for the Expos in 1993): 0.0 fWAR in five plate appearances
  • Rick Renteria, White Sox (infielder for the Pirates, Mariners and Marlins from 1986-94): minus-0.2 fWAR in 456 plate appearances
  • Torey Lovullo, Diamondbacks (second baseman for the Tigers, Yankees, Angels, Mariners, Athletic, Indians and Phillies from 1988-99): minus-0.5 fWAR in 837 plate appearances
  • Terry Francona, Indians (first baseman/outfielder for the Expos, Cubs, Reds, Indians and Brewers from 1981-90): minus-1.7 fWAR in 1,826 plate appearances
  • Kevin Cash, Rays (catcher for the Rays, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Yankees and Astros from 2002-10): minus-2.4 fWAR in 714 plate appearances

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