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Camp Battles: Rangers’ First Base Situation

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After a run as a well-regarded prospect, Rangers first baseman Ronald Guzman made his major league debut in 2018. Since then, though, few teams have gotten less from the position. Guzman’s defense has drawn praise, but that only goes so far when you struggle to hit at an offensively charged position. He’s coming off a two-year stretch in which he slashed a less-than-stellar .229/.307/.415 with 25 home runs in 723 plate appearances. Guzman accounted for just 0.1 fWAR along the way, and his lack of production even led the Rangers to option him to Triple-A Nashville last season.

In the wake of Guzman’s weak 2019, it wouldn’t have been a surprise to see the Rangers make an improvement at first base in the offseason. Even for modest prices, there were apparent free-agent upgrades available (Eric Thames and Justin Smoak come to mind). The Rangers even considered signing pricey outfielder Nick Castellanos and putting him at first, but he wound up with the Reds.

Having struck out on Castellanos, the Rangers have just about stood pat at first in recent months. Therefore, Guzman’s the front-runner to start again in 2020. He does have an option remaining, however, so the Rangers could send him back to the minors and still retain him if he doesn’t win the job in camp.

Cognizant of the fact that he may be in a make-or-break situation, the 25-year-old Guzman worked hard to better himself during the winter. He sought help from one of the game’s best offensive players in recent memory, former Ranger and current Twin Nelson Cruz, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News explained earlier this week.

On the heels of his work with Cruz, both Guzman and the Rangers seem optimistic he’ll finally begin realizing his potential in 2020. If that doesn’t happen, though, there are other in-house first base choices to whom they could turn. Granted, there may not be a clear answer on the roster at all.

The Rangers brought in former Yankees first baseman Greg Bird on a minor league contract Feb. 4. As a prospect and then as a rookie in 2015, when he batted .261/.343/.529 with 11 homers in 178 plate appearances, Bird looked like a possible long-term answer at first for the Yankees. But a series of injuries – including to his foot, shoulder, ankle and knee – helped take a sledgehammer to his Yankees career. Bird missed all of 2016 and was unproductive from 2017-19, appearing in a paltry 10 games in the last of those seasons. The Yankees let the 27-year-old Bird go a few months ago, and he now has to prove himself all over again.

The Rangers also took a low-risk flier on former Red Sox first baseman Sam Travis over the winter. Like Guzman and Bird, Travis was once a quality prospect. Now 26, Travis wasn’t especially impressive at the Triple-A or major league levels from 2017-19. Consequently, the Red Sox – despite needing a first baseman at the time – moved on from Travis a month ago.

If you’re not inspired by Guzman, Bird or Travis, it’s hard to blame you. Problem is that the Rangers aren’t teeming with obvious solutions otherwise. In theory, veteran third baseman Todd Frazier could man the position, but that seems improbable unless the club puts Nick Solak or Danny Santana at the hot corner or does the unlikely and acquires the Cubs’ Kris Bryant or the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado in a blockbuster preseason trade. Should no trade occur, Solak or Santana may see some time at first, but the Rangers might prefer to move the versatile duo around the diamond.

Considering their current options, it looks as if it’ll be another bleak year at first base for the Rangers. The club has made real improvements elsewhere, particularly to its starting staff, but it doesn’t appear that’ll happen at first before the season opens. The spot’s devoid of impact players in free agency, so it would take an unexpected trade in order to find a slam-dunk upgrade now.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Josh Hader Discusses Arbitration Defeat

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Brewers reliever Josh Hader just barely earned Super Two status this offseason, setting him up to take four trips through arbitration instead of three. Hader then filed for a $6.4MM salary – a far cry from the $4.1MM the Brewers proposed. The decision on the case came down Friday, and the Brewers emerged as the victors. Even in defeat, Hader’s now set to make significantly more than he’d have hauled in had he not gotten to arbitration this early. But this loss will negatively affect Hader’s earning power in future years, and he’d like to see a change in the system.

Speaking on Friday, the 25-year-old left-hander said (via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com): “We definitely knew that we were the underdogs going into it. But it’s something that needs to be put out there: Baseball’s always changing, and we’re at a point now that we’re continuing to change, and I think the system needs to change with that. You can see it in baseball now — a lot of relievers aren’t in certain roles that they once were.”

Hader added that the current arbitration setup is “outdated” with respect to reliever usage, and it’s difficult to argue against that. The present system puts a great deal of emphasis on racking up saves and holds, which doesn’t seem fair to dominant relievers who aren’t just used in those spots (Hader, for example). Hader does have 49 saves and 39 holds since he debuted in 2017 (including 37 and six in those respective categories in 2019), but the Brewers utilized him in various high-leverage situations in his first two seasons, thereby hurting his counting stats. That tactic, while perhaps wise on the team’s part, didn’t do Hader any favors in his initial arbitration hearing.

No matter how they’ve used him, Hader has been lights-out. A two-time All-Star and a back-to-back NL Reliever of the Year winner, Hader owns a superb 2.42 ERA/2.74 FIP with 15.35 K/9 and 3.17 BB/9 through 204 career 2/3 innings. Furthermore, he has regularly recorded more than three outs per appearance. Given Hader’s excellence to date and Friday’s results, he’s not unreasonable to contend that the arbitration process is behind the times for those in his position.

Zack Wheeler Heard “Crickets” From Mets In Free Agency

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Phillies right-hander Zack Wheeler and the Mets are engaged in a public feud. Wheeler, a Met from 2013-19, joined the Phillies on a five-year, $118MM contract during the offseason. However, Wheeler indicated Thursday that he had hoped to remain with his longtime team, revealing (via Greg Joyce of the New York Post) that he reached out to the Mets to gauge their interest in re-signing him before he became a Phillie. But Wheeler said he only heard “crickets” from the Mets, adding: “Because it’s them. It’s how they roll.”

Wheeler went on to suggest the Mets are a dysfunctional organization, but general manager Brodie Van Wagenen took exception to his comments. Van Wagenen expressed “surprise” in regards to Wheeler’s statements, per Tim Britton of The Athletic. The GM also noted, “I feel like this organization supported him in giving him the opportunity to reach major league success.” He then took a shoot at Wheeler, contending, “Our health and performance department, our coaches, all contributed and helped him parlay two good half-seasons over the last five years into $118MM.”

It should be pointed out that Wheeler has produced palatable results in every season but 2017 – his first year back from a March 2015 Tommy John procedure that helped cost him two campaigns. He has otherwise totaled three seasons with at least 180 innings and ERAs somewhere in the threes. The hard-throwing Wheeler was statistically one of the most effective starters in baseball from 2018-19, during which he put up a 3.65 ERA/3.37 FIP ERA with 8.91 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in 377 2/3 frames. Considering that, Van Wagenen’s snipe doesn’t ring true.

Neither side may look great in this situation, but the spat does make a division rivalry even more interesting. Both teams are looking up at the Braves and the Nationals in the NL East, though all four are arguably good enough on paper to at least compete for the division. Wheeler was the Phillies’ big-ticket acquisition during the winter, while the Mets still boast a strong rotation even in the wake of his departure. Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman and Steven Matz lead the group, and the Mets have added Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha since free agency opened.

Latest On Russell Martin

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We’ve reached the middle of February, but longtime major league catcher Russell Martin is still without a job. He’s the best backstop left on a market that has drastically dwindled since last season ended. As of November, Martin was still planning to play in 2020. That remains the case, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

While Martin has received chances to sign with teams since 2019 ended, he has turned down those opportunities for family reasons, Sherman reports. However, expectations are that he’ll put himself back on the market within the “next few weeks,” per Sherman.

Since the offseason commenced, the Athletics have been the only team connected to Martin in the rumor mill. Wherever he goes (if he signs anywhere), he’ll have to settle for a low-paying major league contract or even a minors deal. But that’s not to dismiss Martin’s vast accomplishments. Set to turn 37 on Saturday, the former Dodger, Yankee, Pirate and Blue Jay is statistically one of the most successful catchers ever, ranking ninth all-time at his position in fWAR (55.2).

Although Martin’s no longer the player he was in his heyday, the four-time All-Star still has something to offer. Martin was worth 1.2 fWAR in a part-time role last season in Los Angeles, where he hit .220/.337/.330 in 249 plate appearances. He also rated as one of the top pitch-framing catchers in the game. Beyond statistics, Martin has always been thought of as a high-quality teammate and leader, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him end up in a major league uniform yet again in 2020.

Nolan Arenado Discusses Relationship With Rockies

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It hasn’t even been a full 12 months since third baseman Nolan Arenado signed a whopper of an extension with the Rockies, but the relationship between the two has already grown frosty. Arenado said late last month that he felt “disrespected” by the Rockies. Trade rumors were swirling around Arenado at the time, but that wasn’t the problem. Rather, he was reportedly irked because the Rockies made little effort to improve in the offseason after winning just 71 games in 2019.

With spring training in its early stages, there remains a “disconnect” between Arenado and the Rockies, he admitted to Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports. While Arenado isn’t thrilled with Rockies higher-ups, the relationship isn’t necessarily irreparable, nor will Arenado be a disruptive force behind the scenes if the team does retain him.

On the contrary, Arenado said to Brown: “To be honest with you, there is a disconnect right now, right? There’s a little bit of a disconnect. But that doesn’t mean it can’t be fixed. It doesn’t mean that I’m not gonna go out there and play hard for my teammates. Or be a negative presence in that locker room. That’s just not me. It’s not how I’m going to do things. I’m not going to be there trying to show them I don’t want to be there. I’m not going to be that way. That’s not fair. That’s drawing attention to me.”

That’s good news for the Rockies, who inked Arenado to a franchise-record seven-year, $234MM contract before last season. However, Arenado noted that he doesn’t regret anything he has said this offseason. The bottom line remains that the five-time All-Star wants to play for a contender.

“I’ve been to All-Star Games. I’ve done some special things, you know? I’ve won Gold Gloves,” he told Brown. “Those all mean a lot to me. At the end of the day the goal is to win. They signed me to win. And I want to be on a winner. If that’s in Colorado or somewhere else, I want to win.”

The Rockies made playoff appearances in 2017 and ’18, the first two of Arenado’s career, but they’ve fallen flat since then. The club, led by owner Dick Monfort and general manager Jeff Bridich, has signed just one major league free agent (unproven righty Jose Mujica) since last season ended. Thanks in part to that, the Rockies aren’t favored to push for a playoff spot this year.

While there’s certainly a case that Arenado’s within reason to be upset, that doesn’t mean he’ll be going anywhere before the season opens. Among his potential suitors, the Cardinals have indicated they don’t have payroll space for such a mega acquisition; the Rangers don’t expect anything to come together right now; the Nationals like their third basemen; and the Cubs probably aren’t moving Kris Bryant for Arenado.

Angels Outright Parker Markel

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The Angels announced that righty Parker Markel has been outrighted after clearing waivers. He was designated recently to make way for the addition of another hurler.

This’ll give the Halos another arm in camp without any real commitment. Markel hasn’t actually appeared with the club; he was added in an early-offseason trade with the Pirates for cash considerations.

Markel, 29, scuffled badly last year when he first got a shot in the majors. But he earned his way up with an interesting arsenal — a 50/50 mix of a mid-nineties fastball and slider. Markel turned in a 1.74 ERA in his 41 1/3 Triple-A frames, logging an eye-popping 16.3 K/9 to go with 5.7 BB/9.

Klentak, MacPhail On Phillies’ Stance Towards Luxury Tax

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As the Phillies have ramped up their spending in recent years, the question has become inevitable: will they cross the luxury tax line for the first time, and if so when? GM Matt Klentak and president Andy MacPhail discussed the subject in camp, as Scott Lauber and Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer report.

Even as Klentak downplayed the importance of the $208MM line in the team’s decisionmaking, he also seemed to acknowledge it as a rather prominent factor in the internal decisionmaking process. Klentak labeled the Competitive Balance Tax line a “guide” rather than a “barrier.”

The rubber meets the road when a stated principle is put to a real-world test. Klentak says that hasn’t quite happened just yet, explaining that the team “never got to the point of really asking ownership about [any moves] because we never lined up a baseball trade that we thought was right.” If and when an opportunity arises that would force the Phils to foot a luxury bill, Klentak says he “would expect to have a good, productive dialogue with our owners about” the matter.

MacPhail suggested a clearer desire to push into the luxury realm if circumstances warrant. “It’s my hope and frankly my expectation that we’re going to exceed it this year,” he said. Read one way, that’s a strong indication that the club intends to spend. Read another, it’s an acknowledgement that the organization will plunk down more cash if the team finds itself in a competitive enough position. That’ll mean waiting to find out how the already assembled roster can perform.

In comments of more general interest — to the MLBPA, if not the casual fan — MacPhail laid out rather clearly how teams — even those with revenues as great as the Phillies — view the function of the tax. “Nobody can live over it,” MacPhail says of the luxury line. “The penalties are too severe — not just economically, but it grabs you every different way.”

It probably won’t take much to force a decision on the luxury tax matter. The Phils are right up on it already. Cot’s on Contracts has the club sitting at $203MM in CBT payroll, which is also Lauber’s estimate. Roster Resource has that number over $2MM higher, which would mean even less breathing room.

Calculating payroll for CBT purposes is an evolving process, of course. Decisions taken during the season can move it up or down. And it isn’t as if there is any drastic penalty for going over (just 20% on the amount over the line). The actual financial hit only ramps up when you go into higher tax penalty levels and do so over multiple seasons.

So, what does this all mean from a practical perspective? Perhaps Klentak should be taken at his word when he says the team is pleased with the talent it has assembled, which includes a long list of notable veterans on non-roster deals. There’s obviously room to improve and deepen the pitching staff and/or to add an established performer at third base or center field. But that’ll require a higher level of ownership involvement to complete, unless Klentak can work something out that’s mostly cost-neutral.

Odds are, any movement past the line — should it occur — will happen during the season. MacPhail says the club intends to “evaluate what we have and make a determination in-season as if we are going to go over or not.” The front office has seemingly already committed most of the money it has been allocated, even if its spending is viewed as a guide rather than a “hard barrier.”

Red Sox Sign Kevin Pillar

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7:37pm: This one’s in the books, with the Sox announcing the signing.

5:25am: The Red Sox are reportedly in agreement on a one-year, $4.25MM deal with free-agent outfielder Kevin Pillar. The All Bases Covered Sports Management client is said to be set for a physical this weekend, after which the deal will be officially announced by the club (assuming all goes well).

Kevin Pillar | Zach Gardner/MLBTR Photoshop

Pillar, 31, was non-tendered by the Giants earlier in the winter after hitting .259/.287/.432 with a career-high 21 home runs in 2019. He’d been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $9.7MM in arbitration. Pillar also swiped 14 bags — his fifth straight season with at least that many — and struck out in just 13.8 percent of his plate appearances. However, the longtime Blue Jays center fielder also only walked at a 2.8 percent clip — a career low — and the resulting .287 on-base percentage was one of the worst marks of any qualified MLB hitter.

Defensively, he played a roughly average center field by measure of metrics like Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average. That’s a step back from the days when he graded out as one of MLB’s premier defensive players, but Pillar is still at least a serviceable option in center and likely an above-average glove in the corners.

Following the trade of Mookie Betts, the Red Sox had an all-left-handed-hitting outfield comprised of Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr. and newly acquired Alex Verdugo. Pillar will give them a right-handed hitting complement to that bunch as well as insurance against an injury (or perhaps an eventual trade of Bradley) at any of the three positions. He’s a career .281/.313/.453 hitter against southpaws, so while he’s not exactly a lefty masher, he’s still a bit above average in those situations.

Dumping the salaries of Betts and David Price (well, half of his deal) in the Dodgers trade dropped the Red Sox south of the $208MM luxury tax threshold by a bit less than $10MM. They should be able to bring Pillar aboard while maintaining ownership’s preference to remain south of that cutoff.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported that the two sides were close to a deal. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal added that a Major League pact was in the works. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported that a deal had been reached, and Heyman tweeted the final guarantee.

Mike Clevinger To Undergo Knee Surgery

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7:03pm: Clevinger is expected to be able to return to action in six to eight weeks, the team tells reporters including MLB.com’s Mandy Bell (Twitter link).

8:58am: Indians ace Mike Clevinger is slated to undergo surgery to repair a partial tear of the medial meniscus in his left knee, reports Zack Meisel of The Athletic (Twitter link). Clevinger has been on crutches after sustaining the injury while training earlier this week. A timetable for his return is not yet known.

While a meniscus tear typically isn’t a season-ender, it also seems highly unlikely that Clevinger would be ready to open the season in the Cleveland rotation. The extent of his rehab will be determined following the operation, but even a return on the short end of typical meniscus timelines would leave Clevinger with little (if any) time to ramp up for the season.

The Indians, for the first time in several years, will head into the season as underdogs in the American League Central — and the loss of Clevinger for any portion of the season will only dampen their hopes. The team is deep in pitching options, but Clevinger and fellow righty Shane Bieber were the two best options at manager Terry Francona’s disposal. (Carlos Carrasco, of course, is immensely talented but more of a wild card following last year’s battle with leukemia.)

Bieber and Carrasco figure to front the rotation now, and the Indians will likely choose among Zach Plesac, Aaron Civale, Adam Plutko, Jefry Rodriguez, Logan Allen and Scott Moss to round out the final three spots in the rotation. Both Plesac (3.81 ERA in 115 2/3 innings) and Civale (2.34 ERA in 57 2/3 innings) looked sharp in their respective MLB debuts in 2019, although fielding-independent pitching metrics considered both to be more than a full run worse than his eared run average. Plutko has been up and down with the Indians over the past three seasons, posting a combined 5.08 ERA/5.61 FIP in 189 2/3 frames. Rodriguez posted similar results to the rest of that group (4.63 ERA/4.54 FIP in 46 2/3 innings).

The 22-year-old Allen, meanwhile, is a well-regarded southpaw who came over in last summer’s three-team Trevor Bauer/Franmil Reyes/Yasiel Puig blockbuster. He’s light on big league experience but considered one of the organization’s more promising arms. Moss, too, was acquired in that swap. Unlike Allen, he’s yet to make his big league debut. He did post strong numbers in the upper minors in 2019, however, including a hearty 159 strikeouts in just 130 2/3 frames. Control is an issue for the 6’6″ lefty, but he’ll get a look as a potential option in the coming weeks.

MLBTR Poll: Ohtani’s 2020 As A Pitcher

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It was revealed earlier this week that the Angels will go without the pitching of two-way star Shohei Ohtani until at least the middle of May. It’s not wholly unsurprising that Ohtani won’t be ready at the start of 2020. After all, he’s on the mend from a rather serious surgical procedure – the dreaded Tommy John – that he underwent in October 2018. Considering his value to the franchise, there’s no need for the Angels to rush Ohtani back if they’re not fully confident in his health.

All that said, it’s disappointing that Ohtani has pitched so few innings since the Angels brought him over from Japan prior to 2018. The latest news is especially damaging when considering that the team hasn’t added a front-line starter since last season, even though expectations were that it would pick up at least one over the winter. The Angels, stuck in a five-year playoff drought, did get Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran, but they’re more back-end innings-eaters than standouts. On the other hand, Ohtani has the ability to produce No. 1- or 2-type numbers for the club this year, but it’s obvious it’ll be over an abbreviated amount of innings.

The lack of frames Ohtani has racked up since he joined the Angels is no doubt a letdown – not that it’s his fault. He came to the majors as one of the most ballyhooed international free agents ever – someone often called the Japanese Babe Ruth – and has not faltered when healthy. Ohtani tossed 51 2/3 innings of 3.31 ERA/3.57 FIP ball with 10.97 K/9 and 3.83 BB/9 as a major league rookie, averaging just under 97 mph on his fastball along the way. It was a dazzling display overall, and Ohtani truly showed what he’s capable of when he threw seven scoreless, one-hit innings of 12-strikeout ball against the Athletics in his second career start.

Ohtani remained really good through his initial season, though injuries were an issue, thus limiting him to two major league pitching appearances from the start of June through the end of the year. We haven’t been treated to Ohtani the pitcher since Sept. 2, 2018, and we’ll have to wait at least a few more months to get another look at that aspect of his game.

Fortunately for the Angels and baseball in general, Ohtani’s no one-trick pony. He’s also quite an offensive player, having slashed .286/.351/.532 (136 wRC+) with 40 home runs and 22 stolen bases in 792 plate appearances since he emigrated from his homeland.

At the very least, the 25-year-old Ohtani is in line to help the Angels as a designated hitter throughout the entirety of the upcoming campaign. But how much of an impact do you think he’ll make as a hurler when he officially returns from surgery? Vote in the polls below…

(Innings poll link for app users)

How many innings will Ohtani throw?
91-100 26.51% (1,218 votes)
71-90 26.07% (1,198 votes)
More than 100 24.87% (1,143 votes)
51-70 12.75% (586 votes)
50 or fewer 9.79% (450 votes)
Total Votes: 4,595

(ERA poll link for app users)

Predict Ohtani's ERA
3.31-3.50 29.01% (1,070 votes)
3.51-4.00 25.73% (949 votes)
3.00-3.30 25.67% (947 votes)
Below 3.00 9.92% (366 votes)
Above 4.00 9.68% (357 votes)
Total Votes: 3,689

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