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Archives for 2020

Details On Reds’ Pursuit Of Marcell Ozuna

By Jeff Todd | February 4, 2020 at 12:18pm CDT

It’s mostly of historical interest at this point, but the Reds’ pursuit of Marcell Ozuna was perhaps more spirited than was known at the time. The Cincinnati club offered him a three-year, $50MM contract, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).

Though it is somewhat unusual for a player to turn down a similar annual salary over a longer term for one on a shorter term, that’s just what Ozuna did. He picked the Braves’ offer of one year and $18MM. Whether the Reds also would’ve considered a single-season arrangement isn’t clear.

For Ozuna, this was a calculated gamble — not unlike the one he took when he spurned the Marlins’ interest in an extension way back when. He’s still just 29 years of age and has shown rather an impressive offensive ceiling (143 wRC+ in 2017).

If Ozuna can turn in another campaign along those lines, he might well earn a much larger contract. Even if not, another solid effort could allow him to take down something close to or even in excess of what the Reds would’ve paid him. At the same time, there’s always risk — especially for a corner outfielder who has endured some shoulder problems and sagging numbers of late.

This bit of information is obviously also interesting because of its impact on the rest of the market. The Reds went on to strike a multi-year pact with Nick Castellanos, promising him $64MM over four seasons in a deal that he can opt out of after either of the first two campaigns.

It’s still a bit unclear how the market interplay between these players unfolded, but it was obviously a major factor. Notably, the Castellanos deal is far more desirable from the player’s perspective than that obtained by Ozuna from the Braves. After all, the former’s contract conveys both the upside of a possible return to the open market as well as long-term security. Unless Ozuna had another reason to prefer Atlanta, it stands to reason that his offer from the Reds did not include such generous opt-out opportunities.

Signing Ozuna cost a draft pick, it’s worth noting, since he turned down a qualifying offer from the Cardinals. He’s also no longer eligible to receive one in the future. The Reds might’ve been more comfortable with the structure they gave Castellanos since he did not cost a pick up front and remains eligible to receive a QO if he opts out (thus carrying the possibility of eventual draft compensation to the team).

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Camp Battles: Phillies Reserve Infielders

By Jeff Todd | February 4, 2020 at 11:14am CDT

Over the coming weeks, as Spring Training approaches and then gets underway, we’ll look at some of the camp battles that arise. The goal here isn’t to be exhaustive — obviously, there’s a ton of jockeying across the game for roster spots and roles — but to cover the contests that are particularly interesting and/or that carry notable hot stove implications.

First up: the brewing fight in Phillies camp for a utility infield job.

If you’re wondering whether the Phils are really done adding pieces this winter, you’re not alone. There’s a lot to like about the additions of Zack Wheeler and Didi Gregorius. But the roster would feel quite a bit more complete with a high-quality third baseman or center fielder plugged in. Picking up a hot corner stalwart makes particular sense, as it’d allow Scott Kingery to contribute in center and elsewhere. True, the club can allow things to play out and adjust in mid-season as needed — adding via trade or perhaps calling up top prospect Alec Bohm — but the early uncertainty could hurt in a hotly contested NL East.

Supposing the Phillies are indeed willing to roll with their existing options, their recent accumulation of veteran reserve infield candidates becomes all the more interesting. There’ll be quite a few assembled in Clearwater: Phil Gosselin, Logan Forsythe, Josh Harrison, T.J. Rivera, Ronald Torreyes, and Neil Walker. The club has certainly signaled that it has significant plans for one or more lucky former big leaguers. Drawing such players to sign non-roster deals is all about dangling opportunity; given the volume of experienced players on hand, it seems reasonable to deduce that the club has offered a chance at the prize (MLB action) that all these men seek.

Make no mistake: these guys are looking for bounce backs from a performance perspective. There’s a reason they were available for no commitment and in such volume. It’s anyone’s guess just how this group will look in camp — let alone how they’ll perform if and when given the chance in 2020 — but the Phils are obviously hoping one or more shows a spark.

More on each of the candidates:

  • Gosselin is obviously viewed as a trustworthy depth piece around the game, as six teams have given him MLB time over the past seven seasons. He’s not even close to being an average hitter over his time in the majors but did post a hefty (even in league context) .314/.405/.497 slash last year in 353 Triple-A plate appearances.
  • Forsythe has a ton of experience and turned in a solid first half in 2019. But he faltered down the stretch and ended with a .227/.325/.353 batting line. Once a sneaky offensive threat, Forsythe has now turned in three straight seasons of below-average hitting.
  • Harrison had hoped to find a return to prominence last year with the Tigers, but ended up limping through an injury-limited, ugly season. The 32-year-old’s big 2014 season is a distant memory. Then again, he was a high-quality all-around performer as recently as 2017. Even if the bat doesn’t quite come back to league-average levels, Harrison might be a worthwhile contributor on the bases and with the glove.
  • Rivera has been hampered by health issues and hasn’t appeared in the majors (or even much in the upper minors) since 2017. But he showed a productive bat with the Mets when last he was at full strength and could be an intriguing rebound candidate at 31 years of age.
  • Torreyes doesn’t excite with the bat, but he’s about as hard to strike out as they come and can play anywhere in the infield. Still just 27 years of age, he’s easily the youngest of those listed here. He’s also the only man on this list other than Gosselin that profiles as an option at shortstop.
  • Walker is the only player covered here who turned in something like league-average hitting in 2019. It wasn’t up to his prior standard, but Walker did improve from a down 2018 season by slashing .261/.344/.395 with eight home runs in 381 plate appearances. He’s also the only one of the group that hits from the left side (as a switch-hitter), perhaps increasing his utility as a part-time option not only at third base but also on the right side of the infield.

It’s an interesting mix to watch. The Phils are otherwise rather settled in the infield, with Gregorius and Kingery set to line up opposite Jean Segura and Rhys Hoskins. As presently situated, one or (quite possibly) more of the players listed above will end up claiming jobs. There’s just one other infielder on the 40-man roster: youngster Arquimedes Gamboa, who is still trying to get his bat going and has yet to appear beyond the Double-A level.

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MLBTR Originals Philadelphia Phillies Camp Battles

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MLBTR Video: Astros Poach Rays Exec As New GM; Mariners Lock Up A Lefty

By Tim Dierkes | February 4, 2020 at 9:56am CDT

James Click is in as the Astros’ new GM, and the Mariners signed lefty Marco Gonzales to a four-year extension. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd has what you need to know in today’s video!

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Houston Astros MLBTR On YouTube James Click

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Mike Dunn Announces Retirement

By Jeff Todd | February 4, 2020 at 8:26am CDT

Veteran southpaw Mike Dunn announced that he is finished with his playing days, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today conveyed via Twitter. The 34-year-old says he’s ready to spend more time with his family.

Dunn just wrapped up a three-year deal with the Rockies that didn’t quite turn out as planned. The typically hard-throwing lefty lost velocity out of the gates in Colorado and never really found his footing. He struggled with injuries over the final two seasons of the pact and wasn’t effective when he was on the mound. All told, Dunn managed only 85 innings of 5.93 ERA ball with the Rox.

There were plenty of good seasons before that, of course. Dunn was long a valuable performer for the Marlins during a six-year stint. He worked to a 3.59 ERA with 9.8 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 over 328 frames in Miami.

Add it all up, including Dunn’s early-career stints with the Yankees and Braves, and he threw 436 total innings in the bigs. He allowed an even 4.00 ERA for his career. As you might expect, Dunn was generally quite a bit more effective against opposing lefties, holding them to a .232/.315/.353 cumulative batting line.

MLBTR extends its congratulations and best wishes to Dunn and his family.

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Transactions Mike Dunn Retirement

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Red Sox Still Pondering Mookie Betts Trade Scenarios

By Jeff Todd | February 4, 2020 at 6:09am CDT

The waiting game continues, despite expectations to the contrary. As of this morning, with just one week until pitchers and catchers report, Mookie Betts remains a member of the Red Sox.

All day yesterday it seemed a trade could drop at any moment. Reports the evening prior had indicated as much. Padres beat writer Kevin Acee tweeted midday that “multiple people close to situation believe resolution on Mookie Betts trade is imminent.”

It seems the Friars expected to find out whether they or the division-overlord Dodgers would land a new superstar. They’re still waiting right along with the rest of us.

The Red Sox are still engaged with both west coast organizations, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. And the Boston club is still not even settled on particular trade scenarios with each prospective trade partner. Speier says that concepts both including and excluding high-priced lefty David Price remain on the table.

So, is today the day? Perhaps. But new Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom seems determined to take his time making his first major call. While it has appeared that talks were building to a crescendo, Speier explains that the club still isn’t feeling timing or logistical pressure.

Presumably, there’s a point in the near future at which the constraints of the calendar will force a move (or lack thereof). The Padres and Dodgers need to make alternative plans if they can’t nab Betts. And the Boston club no doubt prefers not to open camp with such massive uncertainty hanging over the organization. Even if it can’t be said that a resolution is now truly imminent, it seems quite likely to come within the week.

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Assessing Scott Boras’ Offseason

By Connor Byrne | February 4, 2020 at 12:14am CDT

Regardless of whether you’re a fan of the outspoken Scott Boras, there is no denying he is one of the most successful and influential agents in the history of sports. Boras’ skill in landing mega-bucks for his clients has been on full display this offseason – a winter he entered representing seven players from MLBTR’s top 50 list of free agents. He has since secured a staggering $1,077,500,000 in guarantees for those clients. That figure trumps the predicted total of $842MM that we predicted for those players when free agency commenced.

Let’s check in on the work Boras did this winter for his biggest clients, including the three players who were the game’s highest-ranked free agents when the market opened…

Gerrit Cole, RHP, Yankees (MLBTR prediction: eight years, $256MM; actual contract: nine years, $324MM)

  • One year after Boras secured the richest contract ever for a free agent – Phillies outfielder Bryce Harper’s 13-year, $330MM pact – he almost surpassed it. In many ways, he did. Cole’s deal breezes past Harper’s in average annual value ($36MM), ranking first in baseball history in that category. And the 29-year-old Cole also owns the longest and largest contract a pitcher has ever signed.

Anthony Rendon, 3B, Angels (MLBTR prediction: seven years, $235MM; actual contract: seven years $245MM)

  • Nothing surprising about the value of this contract for Rendon, who was far and away the No. 1-ranked position player in this free-agent class. Among hitters, only new teammate Mike Trout ($35.5MM per year) earns more on an annual basis than Rendon’s $35MM.

Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals (MLBTR prediction: six years, $180MM; actual contract: seven years, $245MM)

  • It wasn’t long ago there were questions as to whether Strasburg would opt out of the remaining four years and $100MM on his previous contract, making this payday especially impressive. Strasburg will turn 32 in June, and he owns a somewhat checkered injury history, yet the World Series MVP was still able to score $35MM per season. As they tend to do, the Nationals included deferrals in the deal (approximately $80MM), but those come with interest in this case, so they don’t impact the present-day value of the contract.

Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP, Blue Jays (MLBTR prediction: three years, $54MM; actual contract: four years, $80MM)

  • On a per-inning basis, Ryu has been among the game’s premier pitchers last season, but he’s also a soon-to-be 33-year-old with a concerning injury history. But those factors didn’t stop Boras from crushing our Ryu projection and persuading a Toronto team that hasn’t finished .500 in a season since 2016 to splurge on the ex-Dodger.

Nick Castellanos, OF, Reds (MLBTR prediction: four years, $58MM; actual contract: four years, $64MM)

  • There’s nothing eye-opening about the value of Castellanos’ pact, though it’s arguably a surprise relative to the way his market unfolded. The big-hitting, fielding-challenged 27-year-old went unsigned until late January, after all, and he netted his deal shortly after a similarly valuable outfielder (the Braves’ Marcell Ozuna) signed for three fewer years and $46MM less. Moreover, Boras convinced the Reds to throw in opt-out clauses after each of the next two seasons, which will give Castellanos the power to return to free agency in the near future if he’s so inclined.

Mike Moustakas, 3B, Reds (MLBTR prediction: two years, $20MM; actual contract: four years, $64MM)

  • The other member of the Reds’ two-man $64MM club, Moustakas raked in more than triple what we forecast. That’s despite the fact that Moustakas entered this free-agency period coming off back-to-back offseasons in which he settled for relatively modest one-year guarantees. It’s also worth noting the 31-year-old wasn’t markedly more productive in 2019 than he was in either 2017 or ’18.

Dallas Keuchel, LHP, White Sox (MLBTR prediction: three years, $39MM; actual contract: three years, $55.5MM)

  • Boras and Keuchel aimed too high in free agency last year, which is why the former AL Cy Young winner wound up without a job until the Braves added him for a $13MM commitment in June. Keuchel, 32, was more decent than great as a Brave, but he still managed to smash our predicted total this winter and get the multi-season guarantee he couldn’t find a year ago.
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MLBTR Originals

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MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Astros?

By Connor Byrne | February 3, 2020 at 10:22pm CDT

The Astros have been a juggernaut dating back to 2017, evidenced by their three 100-win efforts, two American League pennants and World Series title. However, thanks to the sign-stealing scandal from their championship-winning campaign, the Astros’ recent excellence has been sullied in the minds of many observers. Although the club’s the reigning AL champion, it’s now going into 2020 with plenty to prove on the field. It also has a new GM and manager, having parted with the eminently successful Jeff Luhnow-A.J. Hinch duo after MLB issued each of them one-year suspensions for their roles in Houston’s misdeeds.

With spring training closing in, the Astros moved quickly to replace Luhnow and Hinch after firing them in mid-January. They tabbed former Rays vice president of baseball operations James Click on Monday to take over for Luhnow in the wake of selecting veteran Dusty Baker as their new manager last week. Click’s coming over from an organization known for doing a lot with a little, but despite the chaos that has enveloped the Astros, he’s not walking into a franchise low on talent. The 70-year-old Baker, meanwhile, is a calming influence and a longtime winner whom the Astros hope will help them sail through stormy waters.

Of course, one of the knocks on Baker is that he has never helped guide a team to a title in his 22 seasons as a manager. Could that change in 2020? Perhaps, though he’s inheriting a roster that has taken some hits this offseason. There’s no more ace Gerrit Cole, who left for the hated Yankees for a record contract after two straight sterling seasons in Houston. There’s also no more standout reliever Will Harris, who became a National in free agency, or offensive-minded catcher Robinson Chirinos (now a member of the division-rival Rangers). And the Astros haven’t done anything remotely splashy via the trade or free-agent markets (the latter of which is all but devoid of impact players now) to cover for their key departures or strengthen other aspects of their roster.

While this has not been a banner winter for the Astros, they do still look to be contenders on paper. Last year’s all-world offense – one fronted by Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, George Springer and Michael Brantley, among others – remains intact. Better still, the Astros could get full seasons from Alvarez (the 2019 AL Rookie of the Year whom they didn’t promote until almost halfway through June) and the Altuve-Springer-Carlos Correa trio after those stars were limited by injuries in the most recent campaign. And while Cole and now-Red Wade Miley are gone from their rotation, the Astros still boast an elite top two with reigning AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke. They’ll also get Lance McCullers Jr. back from Tommy John surgery, though it’s up in the air how the rest of Houston’s starting staff will look once Opening Day arrives.

As nightmarish as this winter has been for the Astros, there’s no denying there’s plenty of talent still on hand. However, another 107-win season may be too much to ask – especially with their division having gotten stronger in recent months. The Athletics, a 97-win club twice in a row, look capable of challenging for the crown. Meantime, the Angels and Rangers appear to have made significant improvements after the pair stumbled to sub-.500 records a year ago. All that said, how do you expect the scandal-ridden Astros to fare this season?

(Poll link for app users)

How many Astros wins do you expect?
90-94 37.46% (5,999 votes)
95-99 30.66% (4,910 votes)
85-89 14.21% (2,275 votes)
100 or more 9.94% (1,592 votes)
Fewer than 85 7.73% (1,238 votes)
Total Votes: 16,014
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Houston Astros MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls

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Minor MLB Transactions: 2/3/20

By Connor Byrne | February 3, 2020 at 9:00pm CDT

The latest minor moves from around baseball…

  • The Red Sox have outrighted hurler Denyi Reyes to Triple-A Pawtucket, per the International League transactions page. The club designated Reyes for assignment last week when it re-signed first baseman Mitch Moreland, but the right-hander will stay in the organization after clearing waivers. Reyes, 23, made his Double-A debut last season and pitched to a 4.16 ERA/3.69 FIP with 6.9 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9 over 151 1/3 innings and 26 appearances (all starts). When assessing Boston’s farm system in December, FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen and Kylie McDaniel wrote that Reyes could develop into an “emergency” starter type at the MLB level.
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Astros Name James Click General Manager

By Jeff Todd | February 3, 2020 at 6:14pm CDT

7:36pm: Click received a multi-year commitment from the Astros, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link).

6:14pm: The Astros have decided upon James Click as their new general manager, per a club announcement. Click had served as Rays vice president of baseball operations.

Having already installed Dusty Baker as its new manager, the scandal-ridden Houston organization has now replaced its prior leadership team. Manager A.J. Hinch and GM Jeff Luhnow were suspended and fired for lack of oversight in the sign-stealing episode that clouded the team. Owner Jim Crane, who sat atop of those two in the organizational hierarchy but escaped censure or discipline, led a fast-moving hiring search.

Meanwhile, it’s another major departure for the Rays, who had touted a three-person baseball operations leadership team that included Erik Neander, Chaim Bloom, and Click. While Neander still commands the GM seat in Tampa Bay, he’ll now be doing battle rather than collaborating with Bloom (now the Red Sox chief baseball officer) and Click in the American League.

Click, a Yale grad, had been with the Rays since 2006. He entered the organization as a baseball ops coordinator, then touched most all the bases on his way up the food chain.

The team’s account of his most recent position reads as follows: “he is involved in all aspects of the baseball operations department with a focus on baseball research and development, baseball systems, clubhouse operations and departmental logistics.” Click had been tasked with an expanded role following the departure of Bloom. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand spoke with Click last year on his podcast, if you’re interested in learning more.

Click seems sure to fit right into the Astros’ analytically oriented system after 14 years with the Rays. Crane explained that the organization “zeroed in” on Click after several interviews, noting that “he comes from a team that does a lot of things like we do.” Click simply “knew exactly what we were doing,” says Crane, and “felt he could add another dimension to it.” (Via Mark Berman of FOX 26; Twitter links.)

At the same time, Click will presumably be tasked with instilling discipline and establishing ethical guidelines for a baseball operations outfit that actively participated in the sign-stealing scheme. Commissioner Rob Manfred determined that, while Luhnow had not directed or specifically engaged in the malfeasance, he had created an “insular culture – one that valued and rewarded results over other considerations, combined with a staff of individuals who often lacked direction or sufficient oversight.” Though Crane disputed the findings of Manfred in that regard, and we can’t know how he’ll direct his new baseball operations leader, we may at least hope that Click will make a positive impact on the Houston baseball ops group.

There’ll obviously be a longer-term process for Click as he takes the helm in Houston. But he also faces an immediate challenge of preparing for Spring Training in just two weeks’ time. The Astros roster is loaded with talent and largely complete, depending upon one’s perspective (and Crane’s willingness to spend). But Click will no doubt have his own preferences on the margins, if not even some relatively larger thoughts on preparing for a season in which the Astros will again be among the favorites in the American League even in spite of their self-inflicted wounds.

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MLBTR Chat Transcript: 2/3/20

By Connor Byrne | February 3, 2020 at 6:10pm CDT

Click here to read a transcript of Monday’s live chat with Connor Byrne of MLBTR.

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MLBTR Chats

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