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Archives for January 2021

Giants Sign Curt Casali

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The Giants have signed veteran catcher Curt Casali to a one-year major league contract worth $1.5MM, Maria Guardado of MLB.com was among those to report. To make room for Casali on its 40-man roster, the team officially sold left-hander Andrew Suarez’s rights to the LG Twins of the Korea Baseball Organization. Casali is a client of Beverly Hills Sports Council.

Casali became a professional when the Tigers used a 10th-round pick on him in 2011, but he has so far divided his major league career between the Rays and Reds. He was a Red for the previous three years, during which he posted a productive .260/.345/.440 line with 18 home runs in 485 plate appearances. As a defender, the 32-year-old Casali has thrown out a respectable 27 percent of would-be base stealers, but the all-around package wasn’t enough for Cincinnati to keep him in the fold. The team non-tendered Casali before the Dec. 2 deadline instead of paying him a projected $1.8MM to $2.4MM in arbitration.

Now that he’s on his way to the Bay Area, Casali seems like the front-runner to back up returning starter Buster Posey, who opted out last season over COVID-19 concerns. Casali will now reunite with right-handers Kevin Gausman and Anthony DeSclafani, whom he played with in Cincinnati.

Along with Casali and Posey, the Giants also have fellow catchers Joey Bart and Chadwick Tromp, but those two have all three minor league options remaining. In the event the Casali pickup works out well for the Giants, they’ll be able to keep him around in 2022, as he’ll be eligible for arbitration through then.

Mets Interested In Brad Hand

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The Mets have interest in free-agent left-hander Brad Hand, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports. As Heyman notes, Mets team president Sandy Alderson said back in November the club may have been interested in claiming Hand off waivers had Cleveland parted with the reliever at a different time.

Not only did it come as a surprise that Cleveland let go of Hand, who was due a $10MM team option for 2021, but it was an eye-opener that nobody placed a claim on him. After all, the 30-year-old is a three-time All-Star who remained one of baseball’s most effective relievers a season ago. While Hand’s average fastball did drop from 92.7 mph to 91.4, he still recorded a 2.05 ERA with a 33.7 percent strikeout rate and a 4.7 percent walk rate over 22 innings. Hand also converted all 16 of his save opportunities.

Because nobody claimed him, Hand has been sitting on the open market for roughly two full months. He’s one of the premier relievers available, though, and the fit in New York is obvious. The Mets already spent a good amount of money on their bullpen earlier this offseason when they signed Trevor May to a two-year, $15.5MM contract, but doing so added another right-hander to a righty-heavy group. The Mets don’t have an established southpaw in their relief corps, so picking up Hand would give the team’s bullpen some balance.

Marlins Sign Sandy Leon To Minors Contract

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JANUARY 4: Leon’s deal comes with a $1.25MM base salary if he makes the MLB roster, with additional incentives available, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).

JANUARY 3: The Marlins have signed catcher Sandy Leon to a minor league deal.  The contract contains an invitation for Leon to attend Miami’s big league Spring Training camp.  In addition to Leon, the Marlins also officially announced six other players (infielder Eddy Alvarez, catcher Brian Navarreto, and right-handers Zach Thompson, Alexander Guillen, Anthony Bender, and Luis Madero) received spring invites on minor league contracts.

A veteran of nine big league seasons, Leon is best known for his five seasons with the Red Sox from 2015-19, a stint that saw him collect a World Series ring in 2018 and unexpectedly step up as an offensive threat (.845 OPS in 283 plate appearances) in 2016.  That 2016 campaign stands out as a big outlier amidst Leon’s overall career numbers, however, as he has a .216/.284/.327 slash line over 1379 career PA.

Leon didn’t even reach that modest level of production in 2020, as he hit .136/.296/.242 in 81 PA with the Indians.  It’s pretty clear Miami isn’t signing Leon for his bat, but rather his well-documented defensive skill — Leon is well-respected as a game-caller and he was an above-average pitch-framer in both 2018 and 2019.  Leon also has some impressive caught-stealing numbers over his career, though those totals have dipped over the last two years.

The signings of both Leon and Navarreto add some depth to a Marlins catching mix that consists of Jorge Alfaro and Chad Wallach.  Alfaro is coming off a tough season at the plate, but as a former top prospect, he’ll be given plenty more chances to firmly establish himself as a regular backstop.  Wallach is another defense-first catcher, so with Leon now in the mix, Wallach will need a solid showing in Spring Training to retain his job on the active roster.

Navarreto is back in Miami after making his MLB debut with the team last season, appearing in two games.  Originally a sixth-round pick for the Twins in the 2013 draft, Navarreto has hit .214/.264/.307 over 1753 career PA in the minors (in the Twins and Yankees farm systems) without ever reaching Triple-A ball.  He signed a minor league deal with the Marlins last winter but naturally never appeared in the minors due to the cancellation of the minor league season.

Alvarez is the only other member of the group to appear in the majors, as he hit .189/.268/.216 for the Marlins last season in the first 41 Major League plate appearances of his career.  Alvarez’s MLB debut made headlines, as the former Olympic silver medal-winning speed skater became the first former Olympian (in a sport besides baseball, of course) to appear in the majors since the legendary Jim Thorpe.  Beginning his career as an undrafted free agent, Alvarez has hit .278/.375/.413 with 40 homers over 2430 minor league PA, working mostly as a shortstop but also playing a significant amount of second and third base.

Liam Hendriks Visits Blue Jays

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Free agent Liam Hendriks visited the Blue Jays’ training complex in Dunedin today, reports Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. The 31-year-old (32 in February) is unquestionably the best reliever available on the open market and has been quite arguably the best reliever in the sport over the past two seasons.

Hendriks had been loosely tied to the Blue Jays in recent weeks, but today’s visit seems to underscore the seriousness of those talks. Toronto has been connected to virtually every prominent free agent and trade target available this winter. It seems likely they’ll bring in at least one key player from outside the organization.

It remains to be seen whether Hendriks, who pitched for Toronto between 2014-15, will be among the Jays’ noteworthy additions. The Mets, Dodgers, White Sox and Astros have also been tied to the right-hander at various points this offseason. Chicago remains in play for Hendriks, reiterates Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Houston is still “all over him,” hears Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. The Dodgers’ “strong interest” in signing Hendriks also persists, adds Robert Murray of Fansided. It’s clear Hendriks is finding rather robust interest, which should aid his attempt to land the four-year contract he seeks.

Cubs Sign Adam Morgan To Minor League Contract

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JANUARY 4: Morgan’s deal comes with a $900K base salary if he makes the majors, with additional incentives available, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).

JANUARY 3: The Cubs have signed left-hander Adam Morgan to a minor league deal with an invitation to Chicago’s big league spring camp, according to NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury (Twitter link).

Morgan chose to become a free agent after the Phillies outrighted him off their 40-man roster at the end of the season.  It was effectively an early non-tender, as Morgan was arbitration-eligible for the third time this winter and wasn’t likely to be retained.  After posting a 5.54 ERA over 13 relief innings for Philadelphia in 2020, Morgan underwent flexor tendon repair surgery in October. Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune has good news on Morgan’s recovery timeline, tweeting that Morgan is “expected to be game ready sometime in March.”

On a minor league deal, there isn’t much risk for the Cubs in monitoring Morgan’s health and seeing if he can contribute to their bullpen at some point next year.  A familiar face will be waiting for Morgan in the pen, as former Phillies pitching coach Chris Young is entering his second year as Chicago’s bullpen coach.

Morgan has posted some decent numbers since becoming a full-time relief pitcher, delivering a 3.97 ERA, 2.84 K/BB rate, and 9.6 K/9 over 133 2/3 innings from 2017-19.  Homers have been a consistent issue, as Morgan has a 1.5 HR/9 over his career and allowed three home runs during the smaller sample size of his 2020 workload.  Morgan has some pretty significant career splits (left-handed batters have a .640 OPS against him, but righty swingers have an .859 OPS) but he could provide some help to a Cubs relief corps that is thin on reliable southpaw options.

AL Notes: Red Sox, Devers, Springer, Jays, Twins

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Some notes from around the American League:

  • The Red Sox don’t appear to have any intent to move Rafael Devers off third base in 2021, writes Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. The 24-year-old has been a strong hitter but garnered shaky defensive ratings. By measure of defensive runs saved, Devers has been below-average at the hot corner in each of his four MLB seasons. (Statcast’s outs above average was more bullish on his 2019 work but has pegged him as a negative in three of those years). Since the start of 2017, DRS estimates Devers has been 35 runs worse than the average defensive third baseman, a mark that handily dwarfs the rest of his positional peers for worst in the league. There could be some merit to playing prospect Bobby Dalbec at the hot corner and moving Devers across the diamond. Nevertheless, Cotillo notes that the plan seems to be for Devers to remain at third, with Dalbec the favorite for first base reps.
  • The Blue Jays are generally viewed as one of two frontrunners in the race to sign George Springer (the Mets being the other). With that in mind, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith examines the outfielder’s free agent market. The general expectation entering the offseason had been that Springer would receive a five-year deal in the $100MM – $125MM range. (The MLBTR staff forecasted five years, $125MM). However, Nicholson-Smith feels Springer’s eventual price point may come in well north of those initial estimates. As he points out, Springer’s productivity with the Astros isn’t dissimilar from that of Anthony Rendon with the Nationals. Nearly two years older than Rendon was at this time last year, Springer won’t match the latter’s seven-year term. But Nicholson-Smith speculates that an average annual value approaching Rendon’s $35MM per year salary could be in play for Springer on a five-year contract.
  • Should the Twins pursue a long-term extension with outfield prospect Alex Kirilloff? Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic makes the case for that, examining potential contract terms in a piece that figures to be of interest to Twins’ fans. Extensions for players who’ve yet to make their MLB debut are rare but not unheard of. For instance, the White Sox and Mariners pulled off deals last winter with Luis Robert and Evan White, respectively. Kirilloff played in one of Minneosta’s postseason games last year but still has zero MLB service time, having been added to the roster after the regular season concluded. The 23-year-old ranks as the Twins’ best prospect at Baseball America.

Mets Reportedly Out Of Tomoyuki Sugano Bidding

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JANUARY 4, 10:29 am: While the Mets have been in contact with Sugano at times this offseason, it currently “appears their main focus is elsewhere,” reports Heyman (Twitter link). Joel Sherman of the New York Post concurs (via Twitter), hearing that the Mets are “not in” on Sugano at this point.

JANUARY 4, 7:52 am: The expectation is that Sugano will decide on his destination by Tuesday, hears Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).

JANUARY 3: Japanese free agent Tomoyuki Sugano has until Thursday to sign with a Major League team if he wants to make the jump to the states, but he’s in a strong negotiating position. Sugano has a four-year offer from the Yomiuri Giants that includes three opt-outs, per the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter). With that kind of offer in-hand, the highly-decorated NPB superstar need only make his move to MLB for an offer that checks all his boxes. MLBTR readers foresee the Mets winning the Sugano sweepstakes. Only 9.57% of readers thus far predict a return to Japan for Sugano. The right-hander must make a decision before 5 pm on Thursday when his posting period expires.

Optimists eager to see Sugano take on MLB hitters might see signs pointing to a stateside commitment, however.  The contracts being offered Sugano by MLB teams surpass the offer from the Yomiyuri Giants, at least in total dollar amount, and he’s deep into negotiations with a couple of clubs, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The presumption is that Sugano will only cross the pond to join a large market team. MLBTR readers may be on the right track by predicting the Mets as his next team, but the Giants, Red Sox, and Blue Jays also qualify, and all three clubs appear to have interest.

Sugano’s standing offer from his long-time employer in Japan provides him with a good deal of personal agency. Those opt-outs mean that Sugano could replay this saga after each consecutive season, should he so choose. As one of the biggest stars in Japan, Sugano may be itching for a new challenge. He owns a 2.34 career ERA after eight seasons with the Giants, two of which ended with Sugano taking home the top honor for starting pitchers in the NPB, Sherman notes.

Though Sugano has until Thursday’s deadline to decide, it’s likely that he makes his decision sooner, notes both Rosenthal and Sherman. The 31-year-old could bet that owners will dole out more lucrative offers a year from now, presumably after a season that will include partial fan attendance. At that point he’d be entering his age-32 season, which may also be a consideration for the legendary hurler.

Tigers Sign Locke St. John To Minor-League Contract

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The Tigers have signed five players to minor-league deals, per a team announcement. Of the group, only left-hander Locke St. John has prior major league experience. St. John (28 later this month) began his pro career as a 32nd-round pick of the Detroit organization but didn’t make it to the majors as a Tiger.

Instead, St. John was selected by the Rangers in the minor-league portion of the Rule 5 draft after the 2017 season. After a year and a half progressing through their minor-league system, St. John got to the big leagues with Texas in 2019. Across 6.2 MLB innings spanning seven relief appearances, he allowed four runs, struck out five and issued four walks. He was outrighted off the Rangers’ 40-man roster last winter.

St. John has struggled with walks in recent seasons but also posted fairly strong strikeout rates in his time in the high minors. He’ll add some depth to a Tiger organization that features Tyler Alexander, Daniel Norris and Gregory Soto as lefty bullpen pieces on the 40-man.

In addition to St. John, the Tigers announced deals with infielder Isrrael de la Cruz and right-handers A.J. Ladwig, Henry Martinez and Zac Shepherd.

Explaining The Pitching Stats Used At MLBTR

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MLBTR has been around for 15 years, and in that time the statistics we use to evaluate players have continually evolved.  Today we’re going to discuss the pitching stats we’ll be using moving forward.

I’ve been contemplating moving away from K/9 and BB/9 to K% and BB% for a while now, a switch you might have noticed in my Top 50 Free Agents post.  As many have noted in recent years, it just makes more sense to look at strikeouts as a percentage of batters faced rather than use innings as the denominator.

The problem with strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) is its interaction with the pitcher’s hits and walks allowed.  Imagine a reliever who goes three innings, giving up six hits and six walks while also striking out three batters.  Because of all the hits and walks, he faces 15 batters in total.  His K/9 is 9.0.  Every hit and walk extended the inning and gave him a fresh opportunity for a strikeout.  His K% is 20% (three strikeouts out of 15 batters), which is subpar.

Imagine a different reliever who goes three innings, strikes out three, and retires the other six batters.  His K/9 is 9.0.  His K% is 33.3 (three strikeouts per nine batters), which is good.

K/9, BB/9, and K/BB served us well for a long time.  They are by no means terrible, and most of us know the benchmarks better.  But when something better comes along that isn’t difficult to understand and makes more intuitive sense to use, then it’s time to rip off the Band-Aid and start using it.  That’s why we’ll be using K%, BB%, and K-BB% at MLBTR moving forward.  To get a feel for the benchmarks, check out this handy chart, reprinted with permission from our friends at Baseball HQ.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In 2020, the top-20 starting pitchers had a K% of at least 25, a BB% below about 7, and a K-BB% above about 18.  Check out the starting pitcher leaderboard here.  The top relievers strike out about 35% of batters faced, walk fewer than 5%, and have a K-BB% of at least 27.  Play around with the reliever leaderboard here.

Notes on other pitching stats you’ll see at MLBTR:

  • SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA), developed by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, is my preference over FIP or xFIP.  From what I’ve read, SIERA is the best at predicting future performance.  Check out the 2020 SIERA leaderboard here.
  • SwStr% (Swinging Strike Rate) is the ratio of swings and misses per pitches thrown.  It can be used to help back up strikeout rate.  Check out the leaderboard here.
  • BABIP (Batting Average On Balls In Play)
  • Groundball rate
  • We’ll be using Statcast metrics at times, which are explained at the bottom of this page.
  • I’m not a huge fan of WAR, especially in smaller samples, but it’s useful at times, widely recognized, and can be hard to ignore.  It’s something I hope to unpack and reconsider when time allows.
  • Don’t worry.  We’re not going to abandon ERA.

Pitching stats you probably won’t see at MLBTR:

  • K/9, BB/9, and K/BB for the aforementioned reasons.
  • A pitcher’s win-loss record, with the possible exception of a salary arbitration discussion.
  • WHIP, unless we’re writing about fantasy baseball.

2021 Season Expected To Start On Time

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In the time of COVID-19, no schedule is complete without caveats to consult and confirm with health officials. Cases of coronavirus may surge further, breakouts and hot spots remain possible even as vaccines begin to make their way into circulation. And despite ubiquitous uncertainty, as well as owners advocating for delay, it appears the 2021 season will start on time, per The Athletic’s Evan Drellich. MLB and the MLBPA have each announced their intentions to stick to the CBA and provide regularly-scheduled kick-offs for spring training and opening day.

The presumption has been that any potential delay would come from the urging of the league office, but Drellich provides this statement from MLB, “We have announced the dates for the start of Spring Training and the Championship Season. As we get closer we will, in consultation with public health authorities, our medical experts, and the Players Association, determine whether any modifications should be considered in light of the current surge in COVID-19 cases and the challenges we faced in 2020 completing a 60-game season in a sport that plays every day.”

Owners would prefer to delay the start of the season in order to get more people vaccinated and generally provide a safer playing environment. But they also want to limit the number of games played without fans in attendance. With the CBA in place, however, MLB has little recourse but to start the season on time. Considering the success of the NFL and NBA to operate under the present circumstances, it would likely take a significant degradation of our present circumstances to seriously derail the season.

This is good news for the players, who have continually advocated for a full 162-game season. The logistics of said season remain as complicated as ever, and the schedule itself is likely to be a dynamic document. Still, it does seem likelier than ever that there will be a full season in 2021.

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