The Pirates proposed a contract extension to third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). It seems no deal is imminent, as Heyman writes that there’s “no traction” in talks between Pittsburgh and the Ballengee Group client.
It’s hardly surprising the Pirates would have interest in locking up Hayes long-term. The former first-rounder has been considered a top prospect for a while, but he arguably took his stock to new heights last season. Called up to the big leagues on September 1, Hayes went on an absolute tear to start his MLB career. He hit .376/.442/.682 with five home runs in his first 95 plate appearances. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference credited him with nearly two wins above replacement, an incredible amount of value to amass in less than a month of action.
No one should expect Hayes to sustain anything approaching that level of offensive output, but he only needs to be a decent hitter to be quite productive given the reports on his glove. Still rookie-eligible, Hayes enters 2021 as a consensus top 15 prospect in the league.
Hayes is controllable through 2026 and stands to make salaries around the league minimum for the next three years. Already 24 years old, he isn’t slated to hit free agency until after his age-29 season. The Pirates needn’t have any urgency in locking him up then, although it’s easy to see the appeal for the organization in initiating talks. Not only is there reason to be bullish on Hayes’ future, early-career extensions tend to carry plenty of upside for teams.
The specific offer the Pirates put on the table isn’t known. Extensions for players with less than one year of MLB service are rare but not unheard of. Looking at players in comparable situations over the past couple years, however, it’s difficult to find a prior agreement that perfectly maps with Hayes’ situation.
Luis Robert and Eloy Jiménez signed six-year extensions guaranteeing $50MM and $43MM, respectively, each including a pair of club options to buy out free agent years. Both the White Sox stars were more than a full year younger at the time of their deals than Hayes is now, though. Evan White and Brandon Lowe, meanwhile, signed extensions with guarantees around $24MM and multiple club options. Neither of those players was seen as the same caliber of prospect as Hayes at the time. A guarantee in between those general ranges that extends the Pirates’ team control window could make some sense, but obviously a player’s urgency to sacrifice earnings upside for upfront guarantees varies person-to-person.
If there’s any prospect the Pirates go all in for on an extension, it has to be Hayes. I want to see him lock down 3B for quite some time.
He looks good but that babip looks like it it can’t be sustainable. The glove is going to be his calling card as the article mentions.
BABIP really isn’t going to be accurate in 95 plate appearances/85 at bats.
Bob’s just gonna trade him in two years. Don’t get too attached.
Not that soon They have him for 6. Will depend upon how his career goes and if he decides that he definitely go the FA route. If he puts up the numbers and intends to go the FA route, he will be gone because there will be a bidding war and like every big name, 2/3 of teams have no chance. The Pirates fall into that 2/3. You then have a choice of trading the player with a year or two left of control or lose them for nothing. Have to be smart in the trade and look to get high upside prospects and not low ceiling guys. Huntington took Option B when he moved Cole. should have taken option A but he would have been crucified if he sent him out for a package with no major league players coming back,
By the way, you said that losing Mark Melancon for a QO comp pick would have been the end of the world. Looks like Ke’Bryan Hayes was drafted with a QO comp pick. Specifically the one the Pirates received for Russell Martin.
An extension based on a month of playing time? Pirates, please overpay this guy.
I don’t think they’re capable of overpaying anyone.
The Bucs’ version of overpaying a player is the equivalent of any other club grossly underpaying that player. The Bucs would likely not pay Hayes more than 6 years for $42 mil with two option years of about $12 mil and $14 mil covering his first two free agency years, for a possible total of $68 mil through his age 31 season. Of course, they would never pay him for the two option years, so they’d only pay him the $42 mil plus A $3 mil buyout. Meanwhile, another young star with just a few months in the bigs just got a $340 mil contract to age 35. On the other hand, if he doesn’t sign a long term deal, he’ll get paid no more than $24 mil thru his age 29 season. I think I’d advise him to sign the extension. I love that the Bucs will have this guy for the next 6 years, either way.
The Pirates definitley wouldn’t buyout his two option years if he was productive simpily because Bob Nutting. If they extended him for 6 years+2 option years, as long as Hayes doesn’t fall off a cliff or doesn’t turn into Gregory Polanco 2.0, then those otion years would definitley be picked up. I also don’t want to hear that they would pick them up just to salary dump him. If they are a true contender by then, then he wouldn’t be traded either.
If he is productive they wouldn’t buy out those option years they would exercise them then trade him. Like what they did with Cutch’s last year of control. That would allow them to get something for him and eliminate any buyouts from the equation.
You’re comparing 2 completley diffent situations. When the Pirates traded Cutch they were a mediocer team with Austin Meadows in the system, but needed more prospects. They would not trade him after picking up his option if they were a true contender.
I hope you’re right. Bottom line though is we should have him until 7/31/26. I’m looking forward to the next 5 tears and 4 months.
If we won’t sign an extension, we’ll get to enjoy his skills until 7/31/26, which will put him at 29. We’ll get his best years for very little cash, then he can go sign with the Yankees or Dodgers for $500 mil for his age 30-42 seasons.
@mlb1225 true but they are more likely to do that than decline his option if someone else is willing to pay him that much.
Gregory Polanco says hello
cubswin10810 hours ago
An extension based on a month of playing time?
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LOL! Nothing to do with his top-10 ranking?
Not a lot of teams extend players because of their prospect ranking.
Or the fact that he is one of the top 2 or 3 fielding 3B already. Of course what he hit in a month last year (and this spring!) is not sustainable, but he should be 15- 20 HR, .280+, with speed and gold glove defense. That’s his floor.
As a Cubs fan, you certainly have expertise in overpaying players. Unfortunately for you, Hayes is going to be a thorn in Cubs side for years to come. A combination of gold glove caliber defense with the ability to hit the ball 110 mph to the opposite field, as he did the other day, makes for an MVP type player.
I’m drooling at the thought of the Pirates overpaying this guy.
I like this and hope it keeps trending in this direction – we’re all losing out not seeing these prospects get called up and extended sooner they won’t but hope they revolutionize the service time / Free agent eligibility process in new labor agreement
Good thing WAR is compared to league average instead of team average. That 2 would have been a lot bigger compared to the actual players he was replacing.
Last year was a SSS and all that, but Hayes certainly looks like a winner. And as mentioned, with even average production, the glove plays in a HUGE way.
I wouldn’t go hog-wild, but signing him might give the Pirate faithful something to celebrate besides signing Trevor Cahill. His dad was a pretty good player; I think the kid’s the same.
I totally agree with you, Bob. They signed three of their best players of the past decade to this type of extension. Cutch for 6 yrs/$51.5 mil; Marte for 6 yrs/$31 mil and Polanco for 5 yrs/$35 mil to lock them up for two years of their free agency. This allowed them to have these players for all of their twenties, which was likely their best years. Then they can go get overpaid in their declining years by one of the mega market teams.
People like to rag on the Pirates but their new front office is doing a good job of trying to change the franchise. Being proactive and extending Hayes would prevent Nutting from forcing a trade in a few years.
ill wait until they actually offer anyone more then what they gave Doumit to really say they are anywhere mear close to changed.
sorry, Jason Kendall, not Doumit.
The front office definitley is way different under the Ben Cherington era. No way does Neal Huntington gets back the pieces Cherington did for guys like Josh Bell, Jameson Taillon and Joe Musgrove. He made the right moves and got the right pieces. He got a handful of high-talent guys with high ceilings and most also have high floors like Yajure, Yean, Njigba, Rodriguez and Bednar.
Totally agree .. I would suggest that the ‘Pirates’ of the past 10 years are not reflective of the ‘Pirates under Cherington’ ..
In hindsight the Pirates of the past were ‘rudderless’ … Cherington has shown he can build a team via farm system (keep in mind that Cherington handed Dombrowski the farm system that he traded away/gutted to win his WS)
Cherington’s early moves seem to be working (if you believe low revenue teams need to continually have ‘top 10’ farm systems in order to compete) and taking risks on early extensions (for less overall $$) of high end talent has to be part of the equation (eg Longoria, Robert, Sale, Quintana).. or accept that the more success Hates gets the more expensive he will become and the more the ‘Pirates’ will repeat the trades/talent losses of the past
Huntingdon literally built a #1 ranked farm system and signed McCutchen, Marte and Polanco to early extensions. Two of those deals proved to be very team friendly.
So, Cherington is doing the same thing differently?
What changed is when Huntingt5on dealt players, he went after players that could play in the bigs immediately like in the case of the Cole Trade. and got back 4 guys that played the the bigs the next season but were all good players and none most likely will ever be considered great. Traded what looks like top prospects for who was the arguably the best arm available at the 2018 trace deadline in Chris Archer. In hindsight, it appears that it was an extreme overpay as it appears Archer had injury issues for most of his time in Pittsburgh and depending how the 3 guys turn out for Tampa, it is either going to be a bad deal at best or epically bad at the worst. If Cherington continues to feed the farm system to create surpluses of talent (which Huntington never did) then he can afford to trade from the surplus if he continues to make trades and drafts to replenish the surplus dealt. Remains to be seen if he is able to sustain the model.
If I’m Hayes I would never sign an extension play my four or five years there until they trade me then sign an extension with the new team or wait until free agency
given what they tend to offer players and the fact that he’d have to keep playing for the Pirates for longer? yeah no.
only way i see him signing a team friendly extension is if pit has some dirt on him because that’s the only way i see anyone staying in pit until they get better owners. which is just disrespectful to bucs fan pit is a working town and there only going spend money on something if it’s worth buying and what the bucs owners are selling isn’t worth public access.
The Pirates should try and extend Hayes. Imo, they’ll start seeing major improvements in 2022 with Hayes, Cruz, Yajure, Bolton all having a full season or more of playing time under their belt before the end of the season. They’d join Bryan Reynolds, Mitch Keller and Jacob Stallings to form a really good foundation for a strong core. Not to mention their relief pitching prospects like Nick Mears, David Bednar and Luis Oviedo. Then in 2023, they should get full seasons out of Travis Swaggety, Liover Peguero, Nick Gonzales, Tahnaj Thomas, and Eddy Yean. They should also at least get guys like Quinn Priester, Endy Rodriguez, Carmen Mlodzinski, Brennan Malone and Hudson Head their first taste of big league action.
Of course they should. Anyone who is down on this should consider his position in the Tatis extension as there is no essential difference in the logic – high potential, short-tenured player, who is demonstrating immediate success at the highest level of play.
it’s that simple. what can possibly go wrong?
You seem to be expecting quite a bit to go well for them.
Ovbisously I don’t expect every prospect to work out, but Cherington has done very well in the development and draft department.
In this time of quarter billion dollar contracts, the Pirates largest free agent contract ever given remains Jason Kendall’s $60 mil deal signed over 20 years ago. Embarrassing….get it done. He’s no Polanco.
I could see the Pirates trying to give him a Gregory Polanco type extension. Hayes is about the same age Polanco was when he signed his contract back in 2016. That would guarentee them one of his free agent years plus two more if they include them as team options.
@mlb1225 until nutting either sells or dies pit baseball is going to be cia level torture. your going to get built up get some hope in your team and have it all ripped away because nutting is a horrible owner. what’s even worse mlb gives nutting a blank check to suck and tbh pit fans deserve better.
btw i mean no disrespect to pit or there fans just there owners, personally i like it when pit is a good team makes for better cards game beating a good pit team.
if he is any good just think of the prospects the pirates will get for him
Don’t do it! Make them trade you!
Congrats to Ben for his handling thus far.
1-He didn’t rush the guy to the pros at age 21, before he was ready to contribute.
2-He didn’t bring the guy up for the full season and lose service time. Now he’s had one decent half season, and still has 6 years left. At his age and service time remaining, Ben now has some leverage.
Hayes knows that he will be 30 when he starts his next contract, reducing his marketability. It’s not unreasonable to see what type of money is on the table.
The largest contract of any kind that the Pirates have ever given out remains the 6 year $60M extension they gave Jason Kendall in 2002. I’m a huge Pirates fan but that is such an indictment of ownership’s absolute refusal to spend.
I love Hayes’s game and would be thrilled to see him sign long term with Pittsburgh but I think it would probably be in his best interest to just go year to year and become a free agent as soon as he can.
7/31/26
The Bucs gave Liriano 3yrs 39 millon so a shorter term but 3 million more per year than Kendal. Also a huge Pirates fan. Really more of an indictment of the league as 2/3 of the league are at a risk that if they do sign a guy for a huge deal and the player gets hurt or the production falls off the cliff, it devastates the team for years because they have to pay a player not performing and can’t afford to replace like the upper 3rd of the league can. What kills the Bucs is what kills the rest of the lower 2/3. The lack of a sweet local TV deal or ownership of the sports network outright. The top 3rd either own their own local cable network or have a massive contract if they do not own the network. That makes it harder to compete for the lower 2/3. We are not alone. You may see me post at times how I am hoping that Cherington follows through with what he is doing now. It appears he is starting to do what the Cards do. Draft or acquire as much young talent as they can, use it to replenish the major league roster, use the surplus to acquire players to fill holes and when players start to age or start to begin to have a drop off of production, they trade them for more prospects and bring up a ready replacement from their surplus that they have built. That is the way to make a smaller market team work. You have to have great talent scouts and great coaches to develop what they acquire. Takes patients to build and then you have to stick with the plan. Can’t overspend for sentimental reasons. This year is the first that I can remember that they spent on guys like Molina and Wainwright to an extent. Usually they would move guys like that but in the rare PR move they signed both. They have used that model to stay relative even with being in a middle tier market. for decades. Would love to see the Bucs do that. Will not allow for huge signings but would provide a talent pool to avoid having to spend massively and pray for not injuries or big drop in production.
C’mon Pirates, please don’t pull a Padres and screw this up for the rest of the league. As a Rays fan, I want to see them lock up Arozorena and get a couple of option years in FA.
Until baseball has a salary cap/floor with revenue sharing most of the league will remain hostages of the big market teams. MLB is the only major sport without a cap but the player/agents will fight against it until the end. The sad part is most of the players would make much more money with a cap, only the handful of mega contracts would suffer.
“Ownership is cheap because they don’t spend money”
Then when they try to spend some on quality young guys “this kid shouldn’t sign”.
If you watch European football you’d get a better understanding of ownership spending on small clubs.
they willl trade him when his arbitration years come up
You’re right. In his 3rd arb year on 7/31/26. If he’s as good as we think he is, he won’t sign an extension, so the Bucs would be foolish not to keep him until that exact date. They’ll get his best years (thru age 29) for a total of maybe $24 mil, then he signs with the Yankees or Dodgers for $400-500 mil for his age 30-42 seasons. Everyone is happy.