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Archives for July 2022

Phillies Announce Several Roster Moves

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The Phillies have announced several roster moves ahead of tonight’s series opener in Toronto. Since unvaccinated players aren’t eligible to cross the Canada-U.S. border, each new home series for the Blue Jays leads to a handful of players on the opposing team landing on the restricted list instead of making the trip. In the case of the Phils, they have four players not with the team up north. Catcher J.T. Realmuto, infielder Alec Bohm, right-handers Kyle Gibson and Aaron Nola have all been placed on the restricted list. To fill two of those roster spots, catcher Rafael Marchan has been recalled, while right-hander Nick Duron has had his contract selected. Both Marchan and Duron were identified as “substitute players,” meaning they can be returned to the minors without being exposed to waivers.

Duron, 26, will make his MLB debut as soon as he gets into a game. Originally a 31st round pick of Boston in 2015, he spent a few years in the system of the Red Sox and then the Mariners. The Phillies signed him to a minor league deal in the offseason and sent him to Triple-A.

Through 28 innings with the Lehigh Valley IronPigs, Duron has a 2.57 ERA, 30.3% strikeout rate and 42.6% ground ball rate. However, he also has a concerning 12.3% walk rate, something that has been a theme for his in recent years. The last time he posted a walk rate lower than 10.6% was back in 2018. Still, the strikeouts are helping limit the damage enough to earn a big league look. It’s likely to be just temporary, however, with Duron likely to be removed from the roster once the Phillies get back from Toronto.

Orioles Claim Louis Head From Marlins, Designate Kirk McCarty

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4:30pm: The Orioles have announced the claim and that Head has been optioned to Triple-A. To make room on the 40-man roster, they have designated lefty Kirk McCarty for assignment. McCarty had just been claimed off waivers from the Guardians last week and thrown four innings for the Triple-A Norfolk Tides before heading back into DFA limbo. The O’s will have one week to trade him, pass him through waivers or release him.

1:20pm: The Orioles have claimed right-hander Louis Head off waivers from the Marlins, according to Mark Feinsand and Christina De Nicola of MLB.com.

Head, 32, made his major league debut with the Rays last year, throwing 35 innings with a 2.31 ERA, 23.9% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 31.1% ground ball rate. There was likely some good fortune keeping that ERA down, as Head allowed a .216 batting average on balls in play, well below last year’s .290 league average.

In the offseason, the Rays flipped him to the Marlins for a player to be named later, which was eventually revealed to be Josh Roberson. Here in 2022, the Marlins surely didn’t get what they were hoping for out of Head. Through 23 2/3 innings, he has an unfortunate 7.23 ERA, with a 20.7% strikeout rate, 9.9% walk rate and 26.4% ground ball rate, all of those numbers being worse than league average. He was placed on the IL on June 23 with an impingement in his non-throwing shoulder. He began a rehab assignment three days ago but won’t return to the Marlins, heading to the Baltimore organization instead.

The move is a little curious, as Head still has options. When he finished his rehab assignment, he could have simply been sent to Triple-A as depth, but the Marlins evidently wanted to move on instead. Injured players can’t be placed on outright waivers, only release waivers. Although there had not been any public indication he’d been designated for assignment, it appears the Marlins put him on release waivers recently, with the Orioles putting in a claim.

Baltimore has a full 40-man roster at the moment, meaning a corresponding move of some kind will be required to accommodate Head’s addition.

Athletics Claim David McKay, Designate Jake Lemoine

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The Athletics announced that they have claimed right-hander David McKay off waivers from the Rays. Fellow righty Jake Lemoine has been designated for assignment in a corresponding move. McKay had been designated for assignment by the Rays a few days ago when they acquired Christian Bethancourt from the A’s.

McKay, 27, underwent hip surgery in April of 2021 and missed that entire season. He signed a minor league deal with the Rays prior to this year, but was traded to the Yankees for cash considerations before the season began. He made the Yankees 40-man roster but was recalled and optioned to Triple-A three times, only getting two big league innings in the process. He was designated for assignment in June and sent back to the Rays, with cash considerations once again changing hands. He threw another two big leagues innings for the Rays, before being optioned to Triple-A and then being designated in recent days.

He fared quite well for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders, the Yankees’ Triple-A team, throwing 21 2/3 innings with a 2.91 ERA, 29.5% strikeout rate, though with subpar walk rate and ground ball rates of 12.5% and 33.3%, respectively. He was less effective for the Durham Bulls, the Triple-A team of the Rays, though in a small sample of just four innings.

Generally speaking, the strikeouts and the walks have been the recipe for McKay, with teams continually intrigued enough by the Ks to give him chances and hope the control improves. For the A’s, their 29-59 record is the worst in baseball, making them perhaps the most logical team to take a shot on a flawed player and hope that he finds a new gear. This is McKay’s last option year, meaning he will have to stick with the big league club next year as long as he holds onto his roster spot.

As for Lemoine, 28, he was signed to a minor league deal in the offseason and cracked Oakland’s Opening Day roster. He has struggled in the majors with a 7.71 ERA, though in a small sample of 16 1/3 innings. He’s fared much better in Triple-A, between last year with the Rangers and this year with the A’s. Since the start of 2021, he has thrown 64 Triple-A frames with a 2.67 ERA, 19.1% strikeout rate, with ground ball rates around 60% in each season. He still has all three of his options, which could appeal to team’s looking for bullpen depth. The A’s will have a week to trade him, pass him through waivers or release him.

Brewers Designate Chi Chi Gonzalez For Assignment

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The Brewers announced that outfielder Hunter Renfroe has been reinstated from the 10-day injured list. To make room for him on the active roster, right-hander Chi Chi Gonzalez has been designated for assignment. Their 40-man roster is now at 39.

Gonzalez, 30, has been filling up transaction logs this year, as this is his second DFA, in addition to once being removed from the roster as a COVID “substitute”. He started the year on a minor league deal with the Twins, getting added to the big league roster in early June for a series in Toronto in which four unvaccinated players couldn’t cross the border. He was removed a day later but selected back to the roster in mid-June. That second stay also just lasted a single day, with his first DFA of the season leading to a waiver claim from the Brewers.

Milwaukee’s pitching staff had been a bit dented at the time by Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta landing on the injured list. They subsequently also lost Aaron Ashby and Adrian Houser to the IL, but Woodruff and Ashby have now returned, diminishing the need for Gonzalez’s services after close to a month on the team.

Gonzalez didn’t do much to warrant sticking around, as he’s put up a 6.87 ERA in 18 1/3 innings this year. That’s is a small sample, but his 15.2% strikeout rate is well below league average, although he did limit walks to a 5.1% pace. Gonzalez is out of options, making the Brewers unable to send him to the minors.

He did spend some time in the minors with the Twins before being selected, where he showed enough promise to get called up. In 36 2/3 frames in Triple-A this year, he had a 3.44 ERA, 23.2% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate and 55.7% ground ball rate. The Brewers will have one week to trade him, pass him through waivers or release him. If he clears waivers, he would have the ability to reject an outright assignment by virtue of having been previously outrighted in his career.

The Angels’ Top Rental Trade Chip

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The Angels have had another disappointing first half, one that sets them up as deadline sellers. After a blistering April, they’ve had losing records in each of the following three months. They have a woeful 11-26 mark going back to the start of June, and at 11 games under .500, there’s little hope of playing themselves back into contention before the August 2 trade deadline.

That makes it all but certain general manager Perry Minasian and his staff will field offers on some shorter-term contracts. They’re unlikely to tear things down and move notable players controllable into 2023, but there’s little reason not to try to deal veterans ticketed for free agency at the end of this season.

Of the Halos six rental players, Noah Syndergaard stands out as by far the most interesting. There will perhaps be modest  interest in Matt Duffy, Kurt Suzuki or Jonathan Villar. Archie Bradley is on the 60-day IL and ineligible to return until well after the deadline. The Halos seemed likely to find a taker for Michael Lorenzen, but a trip to the injured list last week seems to diminish those chances. Syndergaard, however, is likely to be a target for contenders looking for short-term rotation help.

The Angels signed the right-hander to a one-year, $21MM guarantee last offseason. The Halos surrendered a draft choice to woo him away from the Mets, hoping he’d solidify a rotation that had dealt repeated hits to the club’s chances of contending in years past. There was an obvious risk in investing in a pitcher who’d made just one big league appearance since 2019 due to March 2020 Tommy John surgery, but the Halos gambled he’d rediscover his pre-injury form.

That hasn’t come to pass, although Syndergaard has been solid overall. He’s avoided the injured list and taken the ball 13 times as part of the Angels six-man rotation. He’s allowed three or fewer runs in 10 of those appearances, generally working into the middle innings and keeping the club in games. Syndergaard hasn’t resembled his top-of-the-rotation peak in Queens, but he carries a season-long 3.84 ERA with fielding-independent numbers (4.10 SIERA, 3.83 FIP) that generally align with the run prevention.

Syndergaard entered the majors as one of baseball’s most electrifying arms. For his first few seasons, his fastball sat in the upper-90s and routinely crested triple-digits, earning him the ’Thor’ moniker for his appearance and on-mound presence. In each of his first two years, he punched out nearly 30% of opponents while inducing ground-balls at a quality clip. Paired with consistently low walk totals and an ability to handle hitters from both sides of the plate, he looked like a prototypical ace. Through the end of the 2017 campaign, he carried a sparkling 2.89 career ERA.

After losing much of the 2017 season to a lat tear, however, Syndergaard settled in as more of a high-end mid-rotation starter. His formerly elite swing-and-miss numbers took a slight step back, and he posted a 3.73 ERA between 2018-19. Then came the ill-timed UCL tear that cost him basically all of his final two seasons as a Met and positioned him to take a one-year deal during his first trip through free agency.

While Syndergaard has stayed healthy for his first post-TJS season, he’s lost quite a bit of life on his arsenal. The 29-year-old is averaging around 94 MPH on both his four-seam and sinker — solid velocity, but nowhere near his pre-surgery levels. He’s essentially scrapped the upper-80s cutter-slider he featured in New York for a low-80s slider with a bit more depth. The only of Syndergaard’s offspeed pitches generating strong swing-and-miss rates is his curveball. He’s used that offering so infrequently the huge whiff rate is likely more a reflection of hitters being kept off-balance than an indication that is an overpowering pitch on its own.

Not surprisingly, Syndergaard’s strikeout and swing-and-miss numbers have dropped as his stuff has slowed down. This season’s 18.8% strikeout rate is easily a career-low, as is his 10.9% swinging strike percentage. The league is making a bit more contact this year than it has it recent seasons, but Syndergaard’s strikeout rate is a couple points below the 21.1% average for starting pitchers. His swinging strike number is marginally above the 10.6% league mark.

Rather than overpowering hitters, the seven-year veteran is succeeding on the strength of excellent control and a fairly balanced arsenal. He’s turned to each of his four-seam, sinker, changeup and slider between 20% and 27% of the time. He’s willing to use all of his secondaries against batters from both sides of the plate. Incongruous as it may be with his reputation, Syndergaard now looks the part of a pitchability mid-rotation arm. No single pitch in his 2022 repertoire has been jaw-dropping, but he’s varying his pitch mix and filling up the strike zone to generally keep hitters off the bases. Opponents have a .245/.292/.390 line in 292 plate appearances.

This version of Syndergaard wouldn’t be as impactful an addition as Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas or even Tyler Mahle. There’ll be plenty of contenders that don’t land any of that group, though, and Syndergaard represents a solid fallback option. He’d still be one of the five best starting pitchers on the majority of clubs. It’s unlikely anyone eyes the former All-Star as a Game One playoff starter, but there’s always a market for solid mid-rotation production. Perhaps some teams will be concerned about the extent of the workload he could shoulder coming off two lost seasons, but his impending free agency reduces any long-term injury concerns for a deadline buyer.

While an acquiring club wouldn’t be on the hook for any commitments beyond 2022, Syndergaard would be a fairly expensive add for the stretch run. He’ll be owed a bit more than $7.5MM from deadline day onwards, a tab that could deter lower-budget teams or those already in luxury tax territory. That’s a fair bit of money for clubs to take on midseason, but the Angels could retain some salary to improve their prospect return.

It stands to reason the Halos will be motivated to make a deal, particularly if they’re able to land an upper minors infield or rotation option who could contribute in 2023 when the team takes another shot at contending. It’s unclear precisely how draft pick compensation for free agents might work next offseason — the existence of the qualifying offer is pending the league’s and union’s negotiations on an international draft — but Syndergaard would be ineligible for a QO because he received one from the Mets last year. Were the Angels to keep him all season, they’d likely receive no compensation if he walks in free agency.

Syndergaard won’t be as in-demand a trade target as the controllable starters (Castillo, Montas and Mahle) who figure to dominate headlines over the next three weeks. Yet he’s a strong candidate to change uniforms, and he’d be a more notable acquisition than other rentals like José Quintana and Chad Kuhl for clubs willing to assume some of his remaining salary. He’s no longer the Thor of old, but Syndergaard is still a strong option for teams on the hunt for mid-rotation help.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

MLB Announces 2022 All-Star Reserves

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July 12: MLB has announced three more additions to the game, with Garrett Cooper of the Marlins. J.D. Martinez of the Red Sox and Carlos Rodon of the Giants stepping in to replace Bryce Harper, Yordan Alvarez and Josh Hader.

July 10: The starting lineups for the 2022 All-Star Game are already known, and we know that Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera will be on the rosters as bonus “legend” additions.  Today, Major League Baseball announced the full 33-man rosters for both the National and American Leagues, revealing the other 46 names that will be part of the Midsummer Classic on July 19 at Dodger Stadium.

While the starters were voted in by the fans and Pujols/Cabrera were named to the ASG by the Commissioner’s Office, the rest of the All-Star rosters were determined by a combination of a player ballot and more picks from the league office.  As always, every team is guaranteed at least one representative, though it is worth noting that Pujols and Cabrera wouldn’t count as the only reps for the Cardinals or Tigers, respectively.

Here are the full rosters, though some of the names listed won’t play due to injury, or have declined to participate.  (Any replacements will be named later this week.)  With Bryce Harper missing the game, William Contreras has already been named as the NL’s new designated hitter, so the two Contreras brothers will get to share the honor of being in an All-Star starting lineup.  There is also the unique instance of Shohei Ohtani, who was both selected to the AL starting lineup as a DH, and also named to the All-Star team as a pitcher.

American League

National League

Latest On Royals’ Outfield Outlook

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Yesterday’s acquisition of Drew Waters gives the Royals a potential near-term option to evaluate in the outfield, and general manager J.J. Picollo spoke highly of Waters’ future when chatting with the Kansas City beat in the wake of the trade (link via Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star). Picollo called Waters a “plus defender” and a “true center fielder,” praising the switch-hitter’s speed and overall upside — even with Waters “still refining some skills” at the plate.

That’s a rather favorable characterization of a player who’s whiffed in 27.1% of his plate appearances during his third season at the Triple-A level, although to Waters’ credit, that strikeout rate is down considerably from his 36.1% mark in Triple-A in 2019 and from last year’s 30.9% pace. Struggles in the upper minors notwithstanding, Waters is still just 23 years old, has long been graded as a plus runner and potential asset in the outfield grass, and isn’t too far removed from a monster 2019 showing in Double-A. There’s plenty of reason to be optimistic about Waters as a player, even if his prospect star has dimmed in recent years.

The broader-reaching question for Royals fans — and for fans of teams seeking outfield upgrades around the league — is just what this trade will mean for the Royals’ outfield moving forward. The Waters acquisition isn’t likely to have much of a bearing on Andrew Benintendi’s future; as a productive and affordable free-agent-to-be on a last-place team, Benintendi was one of the likeliest trade candidates in all of baseball with or without Waters around. (We ranked him No. 2 on last week’s Top 50 trade candidate list.)

As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored last month, however, Benintendi isn’t the only trade candidate in the Royals’ outfield. Center fielder Michael A. Taylor is having the finest season of his big league career, and he’s playing on an affordable two-year, $9MM contract. That makes it tempting for the Royals to keep him around into 2023, but Taylor’s greatest asset is his glove in center, and Picollo made clear the Royals view Waters as a plus option in center as well. There’s plenty of room for both Waters and Taylor to slot into the same outfield — especially assuming an eventual Benintendi deal — but it’s still of some note that the Royals would seemingly feel confident that Waters could step into Taylor’s shoes in the event of a trade, at least from a defensive standpoint.

Taylor has indeed drawn interest from other clubs, with MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweeting last night that the Yankees are among those who’ve considered him in their search for outfield upgrades. Taylor, hitting .264/.340/.385 and once again playing Gold Glove-caliber defense in center, would immediately become the best defensive outfielder on the Yankees’ roster (or on the roster of the majority of MLB teams). New York has been playing Aaron Judge in center field more than ever before, but Taylor could conceivably push Judge back to right field if and when the Yankees inevitably move on from Joey Gallo.

The Yankees are also known to be interested in Benintendi, and Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News reported Sunday evening that the two sides have had “ongoing” talks regarding Benintendi for the past couple weeks. The asking price is believed to be high at present, Ackert adds. While the Yankees have now been linked to a pair of Kansas City outfielders, the Royals will surely receive interest in both Benintendi and Taylor from other clubs, just as New York will explore outfield options with other teams.

Further trades from the Royals aren’t necessarily a given. Picollo suggested that the team does not “feel the extreme need that we have to move any players,” though it’d be surprising if Benintendi, at the very least, didn’t change hands over the next three weeks. However, even if the Royals stand completely pat the rest of the way, Waters should get an earnest look in the big leagues before long, particularly with Kyle Isbel struggling and Edward Olivares only playing a limited role this year.

Matt Moore’s Bullpen Rebound

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To call Matt Moore’s career a roller coaster would be to undersell the peaks and valleys that have proliferated his time in professional baseball. An eighth-round pick by the Rays back in 2007, Moore skyrocketed through the minors (relative to most  high school arms), debuting in a September playoff push in 2011. The second start of Moore’s career was a scoreless, seven-inning ALDS gem against the same club for which he now pitches back in that 2011 season. In the 2011-12 offseason, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus ranked Moore as the game’s No. 1 prospect — ahead of a pair of outfield prospects by the name of Mike Trout and Bryce Harper. Baseball America ranked him second — behind Harper and ahead of Trout.

Early in his career, Moore largely delivered on those lofty prospect rankings. He wasn’t an immediate Cy Young favorite but nevertheless pitched to a 3.53 ERA over the course of his first 347 big league innings. Moore struck out 22.8% of his opponents during that span — a below-average mark in today’s game but well above the league-average of 19.4% from 2011-13. Moore made the All-Star team in 2013, pitched to a 3.29 ERA over 27 starts, and grabbed a few down-ballot Cy Young votes, finishing ninth.

Matt Moore | Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Tommy John surgery early in the 2014 season, however, would wipe out the majority of Moore’s 2014-15 campaigns. He made just two starts in 2014 before hitting the injured list due to ligament damage in his pitching elbow, and Moore was limited to 12 mostly ugly starts upon returning in 2015. His fastball, which averaged 96 mph in his electric rookie showing, averaged 92.7 mph over those dozen appearances.

Moore briefly looked to be back on track in 2016. Traded from Tampa Bay to San Francisco in July, he posted an identical 4.08 ERA with both teams en route to 198 1/3 innings. At the very least, he looked like a league-average starter, but Moore unraveled with the Giants in 2017 (5.52 ERA in 31 starts) and posted an ERA just under 7.00 in 102 innings with the 2018 Rangers. He made just two starts for the 2019 Tigers before sustaining a season-ending knee injury while fielding a ground-ball. Moore parlayed a strong 2020 showing with Japan’s SoftBank Hawks into a big league deal with the Phillies heading into the 2021 season, but he logged a 6.29 ERA in 73 innings last season in Philly.

Unsurprisingly, given that tumultuous run from 2017-21, Moore settled on a minor league deal this past winter — returning for a second stint with the Rangers. So far, it’s proven to be one of the best minor league fliers any team took over the winter.

This marks the first time in Moore’s career that he’s been used exclusively as a reliever, and the results been excellent. He’s sporting a 1.88 ERA with a strong 26.6% strikeout rate, a career-best 54.9% ground-ball rate and a 94.4 mph average fastball velocity that represents his highest level since his pre-Tommy John days in 2012.

Moore is throwing that heater at a career-low 42.3% mark so far in 2022. As we’ve seen so often with pitchers — particularly when they move to short-relief stints — he’s found success by ramping up the usage of his secondary offerings. Moore’s curveball is actually his primary pitch so far in 2022, as he’s thrown the pitch at a 44.3% clip that is far and away the highest of his career. He’s mixing in his changeup (13.5%), giving him a third pitch that helps keep righties at bay. (Just three of his 86 changeups this year have been thrown to lefties.) Gone is the cutter he threw at a 9% clip from 2014-21. The sinker he featured briefly from 2012-16 has also been scrapped. All three of Moore’s current pitches have been positives, per FanGraphs’ run values.

Moore’s Statcast profile is quite favorable, too, lending some further weight to his bullpen breakout. He’s in the 73rd percentile of big league pitchers in terms of whiff rate and the 79th when it comes to inducing chases off the plate. Moore ranks in the 85th percentile or better in fastball spin rate, barrel rate, hard-hit rate and in each of his “expected” ERA, opponents’ batting average, slugging percentage and wOBA. Put more simply: Moore is missing bats, and when he does allow contact, it’s generally weak.

It’s not all roses, of course. There’s no denying that Moore has still yielded far too many free passes in 2022 (13.9% walk rate), and while he’s begun to slightly scale back the rate at which he issues those walks, no one’s going to claim that he has above-average (or even average) command right now. Moore also hasn’t allowed a home run this season. That’s obviously a good thing — but it’s also a trend that no pitcher is likely to sustain over the course of a full season. Even if the bulk of contact against a pitcher is weak, hitters are generally going to barrel up a mistake and make them pay on occasion.

Few relievers check all the boxes though, and generally those that can sustain plus strikeout rates with plus command and ground-ball tendencies while also limiting hard contact and home runs are among the highest-paid pitchers in the game. Those types of relievers are rarely available at the trade deadline. Moore, however, should be available — and he has the strikeout, ground-ball and weak contact tendencies that teams tend to covet, even if they’re accompanied by at-times spotty command.

Beyond the impressive showing in his first foray into full-time relief work, the southpaw is also eminently affordable. Moore’s minor league deal over the winter came with a $2.5MM base salary. He’ll be a free agent at season’s end, so he’s a pure rental, but he’d only cost his new club about $1.17MM through season’s end as of this writing. That number, of course, will continue to tick downward as the Aug. 2 deadline approaches.

The Rangers find themselves within striking distance of the newly created third Wild Card spot in the American League, and their offseason blockbuster signings of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien were a clear indication that they’re aiming for a return to relevance in the AL West. But teams in this era of baseball are rarely strict buyers or sellers at the deadline. It’s certainly possible for the Rangers to continue exploring deals that might net them controllable big leaguers while also shipping short-term assets like Moore to more clear-cut postseason contenders to stockpile a bit more future value.

If Moore can net a decent prospect — and given how he’s pitched, there’s reason to think he should — trading him while still pursuing controllable, MLB-ready help in the outfield and starting rotation would represent a sensible means of toeing the buyer/seller line for a Rangers club that isn’t quite a surefire contender yet.

Luis Castillo Drawing Widespread Interest; Reds Not Close To Any Deal

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July 12: The Reds aren’t close to any trades as of this morning, tweets Jim Bowden of The Athletic, who adds that “most” contending clubs have checked in on Cincinnati. That includes both the Cardinals and the Mariners, who have not been prominently linked to Castillo until this point (but who both make logical sense as a potential landing spot).

July 11: The Dodgers and Reds have had preliminary talks about Cincinnati starter Luis Castillo, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). Los Angeles joins a growing list of contenders known to be in contact with the Reds front office.

Castillo is one of the sport’s most obvious trade candidates, placing fourth on MLBTR’s Top 50 list last week. The right-hander is arbitration-eligible through 2023, but Cincinnati has no hope of competing this season. With the opportunity to market two possible postseason pushes to contenders, Castillo’s value around the league will never be higher than it is this summer. Teams like the Twins, Padres, Mets, Yankees, and Blue Jays have all been reported to have inquired in recent weeks. That’s presumably not an exhaustive list, as virtually every contender is likely to check in with Cincinnati general manager Nick Krall and his staff.

The 29-year-old Castillo carries a personal-best 2.92 ERA through his first 12 starts of the season. He’s been in peak form of late, tossing 20 innings of three-run ball with 25 strikeouts and five walks over his past three outings. Of course, Castillo has a multi-year track record as one of the sport’s better pitchers. He’s allowed fewer than four earned runs per nine innings in five of his six big league campaigns. One of the game’s hardest throwers, he typically blends a rare combination of swing-and-miss and ground-ball upside. This season’s respective 25.3% strikeout rate and 49.7% grounder percentage are both down a bit from his best levels, but each remains decidedly above-average.

Castillo missed the first month of this season with shoulder soreness. That set him off on a less than ideal start, but he’s rounded into form over the past few weeks. Although his fastball velocity was down a tick in May, he’s built arm strength as the season has worn on. According to Statcast, Castillo has averaged 97.7 MPH on his four-seam and 97.1 MPH on his sinker through his two starts this month. That’s in line with or better than last year’s respective 97.1 MPH and 97.3 MPH season averages, seemingly putting away any concerns clubs might’ve had stemming from his early-season injury.

Alongside teammate Tyler Mahle and A’s hurler Frankie Montas, Castillo is one of three high-octane controllable starters widely expected to be available at the deadline. Mahle is on the 15-day injured list with a shoulder strain, while Montas is dealing with some shoulder inflammation. Mahle has indicated he expects to be reinstated well in advance of the August 2 deadline, though, and the A’s remain hopeful that Montas can avoid the IL entirely and start this week (link via Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle). Even if all three pitchers are healthy, one could argue for Castillo to land the strongest return based on his track record and recent dominance.

The Reds are understandably setting their sights high in discussions. Jon Heyman of the New York reports that Cincinnati has sought one of Anthony Volpe or Oswald Peraza as a headliner in talks with the Yankees. Each player is a top shortstop prospect, with Volpe topping the Yankees’ farm rankings and placing among the 15 best farmhands leaguewide at each of Baseball America, FanGraphs, ESPN and the Athletic heading into the 2022 season. Peraza is generally regarded as the second or third-best player in the New York system; he landed second in the organization and 79th overall on BA’s recent Top 100 update.

It’s hard to envision New York parting with Volpe in any trade, but a player of Peraza’s caliber is a reasonable starting point for the Cincinnati front office. The Blue Jays sent the Twins two prospects generally regarded as top 100 talents (Austin Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson) for a year and a half of José Berríos’ services last summer. Martin was a somewhat divisive player but just a season removed from being drafted fifth and ranked by most outlets as a top 50 overall talent at the time of the deal.

Peraza isn’t having a great season offensively in Triple-A (.242/.313/.411 through 275 plate appearances), but he’s young for the level, having just turned 22. He’s viewed as a strong defensive player, and the Yankees’ belief in he and Volpe was cited frequently as a reason for the club declining to aggressively pursue the big-ticket free agent shortstops available last winter.

Whether or not the Yankees are willing to entertain the possibility of putting Peraza in a Castillo trade, the lofty reported ask reflects the Reds’ leverage in dangling an arm of his caliber. They’ll certainly look towards the upper ranks of the farm systems of other clubs inquiring over the next few weeks. In all likelihood, talks with myriad teams will continue until the days immediately preceding the deadline and perhaps into August 2 itself.

Royals Acquire Drew Waters From Braves For Draft Pick

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The Royals have made their second deal of the past week, acquiring former top outfield prospect Drew Waters, minor league righty Andrew Hoffmann and minor league corner infielder CJ Alexander from the Braves in exchange for their Competitive Balance draft pick (No. 35 overall). Both teams have announced the trade.

The 15 selections in the two Competitive Balance rounds — Round A ranges from Nos.33-39, Round B from picks 67-74 — are the only picks eligible to be traded each year’s draft and can only be traded once (meaning the Braves cannot subsequently flip the pick to another team). The No. 35 pick that Atlanta is receiving comes with a slot value of $2,202,100, all of which will be added to the Braves’ league-allotted bonus pool of $8,022,200. That’ll bump the Braves from the 19th-largest draft pool to the 10th-largest (barring any additional trades).

The added pick and financial might will give the Braves some extra means of replenishing the farm after surrendering four prospects to acquire Matt Olson this offseason (to say nothing of the handful of trades made at each of the past few deadlines). Between those deals, low draft selections the past few years (due to strong regular-season performances) and the international free-agent penalties incurred by the former front office regime, the once-vaunted Braves farm system has taken a hit.

Drew Waters

Waters, 23, ranked among the sport’s top-100 prospects from 2019-21 but has seen his stock fall precipitously in recent seasons as he’s struggled against Triple-A pitching. Waters is currently in his third season with Triple-A Gwinnett, but his .246/.305/.393 batting line isn’t an improvement over the pedestrian output he’s recorded there in both 2019 and 2021. Overall, in 788 plate appearances at the Triple-A level, Waters is a .246/.324/.383 hitter. Those struggles are reflected in the fact that the former second-round pick, who was once seen as a key building block for the Braves organization, is now instead part of a three-player package that will net Atlanta a draft pick that’s just six places higher than Waters was selected a half-decade ago.

With Ronald Acuna Jr. and Michael Harris II set to hold down two-thirds of the Atlanta outfield for the future — plus veterans Eddie Rosario, Marcell Ozuna and Guillermo Heredia all signed or controlled beyond the current season, there wasn’t much immediate room for Waters to make an impact on the big league outfield anyhow. Braves fans might be disheartened when thinking about what Waters might’ve fetched in a trade had he been moved a year or two ago, but the team did manage to net some value for the former Futures Game participant.

From the Royals’ vantage point, the long-term outfield picture is far less certain, so there’s good reason to take a chance on getting Waters back on track. Kansas City has been working to put a winning product on the field for the past couple seasons, and while the results haven’t been there yet, Waters provides more immediate potential to help the team than whomever would have been tabbed with that No. 35 overall pick. Waters posted a huge .319/.366/.481 batting line in a pitcher-friendly Double-A setting back in 2019, when he was one of the youngest players in the league. Baseball America and MLB.com both ranked him within the sport’s top 40 overall prospects in consecutive offseasons.

With Andrew Benintendi all but certain to be traded and center fielder Michael A. Taylor a candidate to go as well — he’s signed affordably through 2023 — the Royals will soon have some outfield vacancies. If veteran Whit Merrifield is finally moved at this year’s deadline, that’d represent another subtraction from the outfield corps.

The organizational hope has been that 25-year-old Kyle Isbel can claim a long-term spot in the outfield mix, but he’s currently hitting just .216/.248/.328. Twenty-six-year-old Edward Olivares has performed well in a much more limited role. Generally speaking, though, the Royals are thin on outfield prospects. College pitching has been a focus of their drafts during their recent rebuild, and while they have standout young options at shortstop/third base (Bobby Witt Jr.), catcher (MJ Melendez) and first base/designated hitter (Vinnie Pasquantino, Nick Pratto), there’s no ballyhooed outfielder knocking down the door to the Majors for the Royals at the moment. Waters, clearly, is something of a project, but he’ll give the Royals an immediate option to join that young core if he can indeed benefit from a change of scenery.

Also heading to the Royals are Hoffmann, a 22-year-old righty selected in the 12th round of last summer’s draft, and Alexander, a 25-year-old who’s shown power, speed and concerning on-base struggles while playing against younger competition in Double-A.

Hoffmann ranked 16th among Braves prospects at FanGraphs and 23rd at MLB.com, where scouting reports on the 6’5″ righty peg him as a high-probability back-of-the-rotation piece — a rather notable step forward for a player just a year removed from being selected so late in the draft. So far in 2022, Hoffmann has posted terrific numbers in Class-A, making 15 starts with a 2.36 ERA, 28.4% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate and 46.3% ground-ball rate. Hoffmann’s fastball sits in the 91-93 mph range — below-average by today’s standards — and he relies heavily on above-average command to help mitigate the lack of a power primary offering.

Alexander, meanwhile, isn’t as highly regarded — as one would expect for a player who is in his third trip through Double-A despite the fact that he’ll turn 26 this month. A 20th-round pick in 2018, Alexander has dramatically reduced his strikeout rate in 2022, as it’s currently at 21.8% after sitting at 32% in 2019-21. He’s slugged 15 homers and gone 13-for-15 in stolen base attempts through 289 plate appearances this year, but Alexander has also walked at a meager 4.8% rate. Overall, his .258/.294/.465 isn’t particularly exciting, but he gives Kansas City yet another lefty corner infield bat, as he’s capable of playing first base as well.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the trade (Twitter links).

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