As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk discusses in his Miami Marlins Offseason Outlook, the Fish are still looking for quality hitters. Despite spending the 2021 offseason improving their outfield by bringing in Avisaíl García (four-year, $53MM) and Jorge Soler (three-year, $36MM), neither player had overly productive seasons, and the Marlins are still looking for their first potent outfield since the 2017 homegrown trio of Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, and Giancarlo Stanton. Like that 2017 Marlins outfield, the Fish might already have a future outfield building block on their team in 25-year-old Bryan De La Cruz.
Originally signed when he was 16-years-old by the Astros for $170K in 2013, De La Cruz made his Astros debut in the Dominican Summer League in 2014. He progressed quickly, joining Double-A Corpus Christi when he was only 20. However, De La Cruz had a challenging time adjusting to higher-level pitching and bounced between Low-A and Double-A during the 2017-2019 seasons before eventually reaching Triple-A Sugar Land in 2021 where he hit a robust .324/.362/.518.
At the 2021 Trade Deadline, the Astros traded De La Cruz to the Marlins as part of a package for reliever Yimi Garcia. When De La Cruz arrived in Miami, he continued his strong hitting slashing .296/.356/.427 (114 wRC+) in 199 at-bats. However, his 2022 season would not be as successful.
During the 2022 season, De La Cruz showed flashes of excellence, hitting .313/.476/.500 over his first 14 games before faltering and slashing .197/.229/320 from May through August. However, De La Cruz finished strong. In his final 85 at-bats, the righty mashed an extraordinary .388/.419/.718 with six homers and ten doubles. De La Cruz also spent time in Triple-A, mashing .320/.370/.620 in 50 at-bats. Collectively, De La Cruz finished the season with a positive .252/.294/.432 (104 wRC+) line, although marked by inconsistently.
Nevertheless, De La Cruz’s underlying metrics show promise. Out of all outfielders who had at least 300 plate appearances this past season, the righty had the ninth-highest HardHit rate (39.5%), greater than Mike Trout, Giancarlo Stanton, Kyle Schwarber, and Mookie Betts. Additionally, out of all outfielders with 300+ plate appearances, De La Cruz ranks second in Soft Contact, only behind MVP-favorite Aaron Judge. Statcast is even more bullish on De La Cruz’s bat, ranking him in the 82nd percentile for Average Exit Velocity, 84th percentile for Barrel%, and 86th percentile for HardHit Rate among all 2022 batters.
So, what is holding Bryan De La Cruz back?
While his 2022 strikeout rate is a bit above league average (25.4% vs. 22.4%), his 2022 walk rate is below league average (5.4% vs. 8.2%). However, a closer examination of De La Cruz’s walk rate shows a different story. De La Cruz generated 5 walks in his first 21 plate appearances (23.8%), and only 14 over and his next 334 plate appearances (4.2%). Thus, a limiting factor in De La Cruz’s offensive potential is his free-swing approach.
Statcast ranks De La Cruz in the 34th percentile for Chase Rate and 22nd percentile for Whiff%. Combined with a low propensity for walks, this lack of strike zone command hinders De La Cruz’s ability to fully utilize his bat.
Look no further than De La Cruz’s magical final 85 at-bats. During September and October, the outfielder dropped his strikeout rate to 21.3% and increased his walk rate to 5.3%, the second-highest mark for a month-long period during his 2022 season.
Additionally, when analyzing De La Cruz’s success during his stints in Triple-A Jacksonville and Sugar Land, it is clear that the righty can control the zone. During 2021 in Sugar Land, De La Cruz walked at a 5.8% clip but only struck out in 20.1% of all at-bats. Similarly, during his time in Jacksonville, the righty walked at a strong 7.4% and struck out at a 24.1% rate.
On the defensive side of the field, De La Cruz has split his time between all three outfield positions but is rated between slightly-below-average to below-average, depending on the metric (-1 by DRS, -5.8 by UZR, and -3 OAA). While he possesses slightly above-average sprint speed (62nd percentile) and outfielder jump (60th percentile), De La Cruz will likely develop into a corner outfielder with his strong arm reaching 96 mph during the 2022 season.
As with most young hitters, adjusting to Major League pitching takes time and patience. Early struggles controlling the strike zone are not rare, and De La Cruz’s raw talent has produced mammoth results, albeit inconsistently. With De La Cruz only arbitration-eligible after the 2024 season and making the league minimum, the Marlins have time to evaluate his growth.
The only thing I remember about breakout, was a lot of pimples…
Or my allergic reaction.
DeLa Cruz is gonna be a heckuva player.
I would say the biggest thing holding de la Cruz back is not playing almost every day. No reason not to play the guy.
Average exit velocity is not always the most valuable stat, I have seen Trout and Betts and De La Cruz will never be a match at the plate or in the field. Soler had a homer that was hit 117.6 MPH, he has a better chance than De la Cruz in 2023, though he is best used as a DH.
No one is claiming De La Cruz is going to be a match for two of the best players in the game. The comparison of hard-hit rate is just a piece of evidence of his potential.
do we really need to know exit velocity, distance, launch angle? a home run is a home run no matter what the velocity, distance and angle it traveled. and do we really need OAA, DRS, WAR, WAR+, expected ERA, etc, etc, etc. just play the damn game.
Need? No, you and I don’t. But if I’m in charge of an MLB front office, I want as much info as possible to put the best team I can on the field.
Not being aware of these stats – or at least having staff members who track them – would be negligent and put my team at a disadvantage compared to every other team. In other words, I’d be fired in a heartbeat.
I’m not sure why people don’t like information. Knowledge is power.
why do I need to know how many mph a ball travels on a lineout to third? or a base hit, or a home run? is the manager going to come out and pull the pitcher because his pitch allowed the ball to be hit 110 mph instead of 100? as far as WAR, OAA, expected runs – I don’t even know what those are – what’s wrong with hits, average, rbi, runs, ERA a d strikeouts? that’s all I need to know. all of those other letters might mean something to a .manager but they’re useless to me.
Enjoy the game how you choose to, and let others do the same.
exit velocity ugh.
How about runner in scoring position hitting stats or leading off or batting 2nd stats. these are way more important than how hard the ball is hit.
Even though his walk rate was a lot better in AAA, 7.4% still isn’t really a “strong” rate. The underlying metrics help a lot and they can definitely be helpful for predicting breakouts, and I like De La Cruz so it’s possible he takes a step forward. But without consistent plate discipline, none of that matters at all.
Steven Kwan was at the bottom of the league in exit velocity, hard hit rate, etc. but he has elite plate discipline and ended up being one of the more productive hitters in the league. Hitting the ball hard is nice, but it only matters when you actually hit it.
Yes. The obsession with hard-hit rates, barrels, etc. was driven by a very homogenized approach to hitting all built around launch angle to hit over the shift. It’s more telling for certain types of hitters, while hitters who it held less meaning were driven out of the game for a while. It became self-fulfilling. Hitters like Steven Kwan need not apply.
I’m quite sure that Rod Carew, Tony Gwynn and Wade Boggs did not have elite hard-hit rates, but they had great hitting skills. I have no idea what hitting coaches would have done to their swings in they came of age baseball wise over the past decade. I’m hoping that the emergence, or re-emergence, of hitters like Kwan and Arraez is a sign that the game is shifting to a slightly more balanced approach. Lineup construction should include a balance of lefties and righties, and hitters who can make contact. Those guys will help exhaust relief arms, which in turn should help the power guys. Cleveland had good success with increased contact, but they’re still lacking some pop. A team like the Yankees have the pop, but a little too much swing and miss. The Astros have found the right balance. It’s not easy to do, but hopefully every hitter swinging from their heels is an approach that is going to die.
Agreed! When Placido Polanco played for the Tigers, he was feared by the other manager. If he came up with runners in scoring position, they knew he was putting the ball in play, and was not going to strike out. It didn’t matter who was pitching. Going to the bullpen was not really going to change things. Players like him are so undervalued today.
Or Ichiro. Should start adding him to the lists of feared, contact over power guys.
@desertball, yes. My kindom (I don’t have one) for an Ichiro. First-ballot HOFer whose hitting skills were undervalued even when he was at peak.
Yeh, and how about that 21% strikeout rate which was an improvement…..thats 1 of every 4 at bats!
Marlins should only rely on him as a 4th OF or platoon bat with Sanchez/Bleday. They need to bring in an OF besides Garcia.
They need a Center Fielder and those are in short supply league wide. De La Cruz is capable of handling CF and that could be enough to get his bat in the lineup if the Marlins are unable to land an upgrade at the position
De La Cruz is basically 26. Bleday 25. Bleday has not exhibited anything close to De La Cruz in results. Miami should stick this guy in LF and tell him the job is his. He could be an All Star if he can maintain close to what he showed in September.
Sanchez in LF, De La Cruz in CF and Garcia/Soler in RF/DH is the probably the best option if the Marlins can’t trade either Garcia or Soler
This guy should go write for Fangraphs. There’s nothing in this article about transaction potential, and I can’t imagine the upcoming series this seems to portend will either.
Oh no, additional content! Who wants that?
Ben-cubed
Looks like you are getting free content and biting the hand that feeds you.
I’m allowed not to like the content and express that sentiment.
Maury, for the uninitiated, can you (or someone in the comments section) explain “soft contact?” as it relates to a hitter? You mentioned that “De La Cruz ranks second in Soft Contact, only behind MVP-favorite Aaron Judge.” I don’t view Judge as delivering soft contact, so I’m guessing it’s an inverse stat to the name, meaning De La Cruz is second in the league behind Judge in not making soft contact. There are so many stats out there now that even someone who follows them, as I do, might be given pause. I think of soft contact more as a pitcher’s stat. Thanks.
Garcia and Soler didn’t work out, but there could be internal help coming… it’s Jorge Soler 2.0.
Soler can become a free agent after the season if he wants to so he will be motivated. My prediction monster good year for Soler in 2023, 40 plus home runs and a 0.225 or better average. Garcia should be healthy in 2023, but I think that he would do better in a different ball park on a different team.
You could have posted this same article after last season, this is the second time DLC had a great last two month of the season.
It is a matter of consistency throughout a whole season, but Marlins fans know he is a good player. I think he’ll be the 4th OF next season because the Fish will trade for a CF.
Most of the things said about Bryan De La Cruz could be said about JJ Bleday. Both have the potential, just when will it materialize in the MLB long-term! Hopefully sooner rather than later for both players.