The Dodgers were baseball’s best team in the regular season, winning a franchise-record 111 games. They cleared the next-closest team, the Astros, by five games and finished ten clear of anyone else in the National League.
That didn’t translate to postseason success, however, as Los Angeles dropped three of four to the division-rival Padres in their Divisional Series. As they enter the offseason earlier than hoped, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and general manager Brandon Gomes met with reporters this afternoon (links via Jack Harris of the L.A. Times and Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic).
The executives predictably expressed their disappointment with the early postseason exit, with Friedman suggesting it was the most painful series loss of his tenure atop baseball operations. Yet he quickly downplayed the need for sweeping organizational changes, pointing to the volatility inherent in a short playoff series. While Friedman credited the Padres for outplaying the Dodgers during the Division Series, he noted the lack of situational hitting which plagued L.A. in the postseason is the sort of thing that tends to ebb and flow throughout a year.
To that point about the team not requiring any kind of drastic overhaul, Friedman confirmed previous reports manager Dave Roberts would be back for an eighth season. “I feel like Dave and his coaching staff did an incredible job during the regular season to lead this team to 111 wins,” Friedman said, noting that the skipper would “100%” return to the role in 2023. “I don’t feel like it’s a switch that was then turned off or the players needed a different voice in those (playoff) games. That’s my personal belief.”
Friedman added he doesn’t expect there to be any changes to Roberts’ coaching staff, implying that everyone will be offered a chance to return. Each offseason, teams run the risk of seeing a coach depart to take on a more impactful role with another club. Bench coach Bob Geren and first base coach Clayton McCullough each got some managerial attention last winter, for instance, and it’s possible their names are floated again in searches this offseason.
Turning to the playing personnel, Friedman and Gomes touched on a few key decisions they’ll need to make early in the offseason. Los Angeles will see franchise icon Clayton Kershaw hit free agency for the second straight winter. Last offseason, the Dodgers surprisingly elected not to make Kershaw a qualifying offer. Friedman later explained the Dodgers didn’t want to pressure the future Hall of Famer into making a decision whether to return within the 10-day window allotted to qualified free agents. Kershaw didn’t make a decision until after the lockout, and he eventually re-signed on a one-year, $17MM guarantee in Spring Training.
Because Kershaw didn’t receive a qualifying offer last winter, he’s eligible for one again. Friedman didn’t explicitly rule out the QO this time around but strongly hinted they’d again opt against it. “Like I said last year, I think for him to take the time and put his head together with (his wife) Ellen and figure out what makes the most sense for their family is what we’re going to give him time to do,” the Dodger president said. Friedman called it his “strong hope” that Kershaw elects to return for a 16th season in L.A.
This year’s qualifying offer has been set at $19.65MM. That’s a perfectly reasonable price to pay for the three-time Cy Young winner, who remains among the best starters in the game on a rate basis. Kershaw pitched to a sterling 2.28 ERA across 126 1/3 innings this past season, striking out an above-average 27.8% of opponents against an elite 4.7% walk rate. He lost roughly a month apiece to hip and back injuries, but he didn’t seem to feel any ill effects of the forearm discomfort that cut his 2021 season short.
Kershaw has stated a few times in recent weeks that he’s presently leaning towards continuing his career. Immediately after the series loss, he told reporters that “as of right now, I’d say I’ll play again.” He added that spending time with his family early in the offseason had the potential to change his mind, however, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Kershaw take his free agency process slower than most players do. Last winter’s decision seemed to come down to a return to L.A., joining his hometown Rangers, or retiring. It figures to be a similar story this winter, with both the Dodgers and Rangers sure to have significant interest in signing him. (Other teams would obviously call if Kershaw broadened his geographic range, but that’d be quite surprising).
While the ball is primarily in Kershaw’s court as to whether he returns to Dodger Stadium, the onus falls on the team to decide how to proceed with 2019 NL MVP Cody Bellinger. Bellinger is arbitration-eligible for a final time this winter, and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to receive an $18.1MM salary if tendered a contract. Only Juan Soto has a higher arbitration projection, a testament to Bellinger’s early-career accomplishments. Those earned lofty salaries early in his career, and the arbitration system is designed so that salaries almost always escalate year-over-year.
However, Bellinger’s offensive production has evaporated over the past few seasons. He followed up his 47-homer MVP campaign with a slightly above-average showing (.239/.333/.455) in 2020. While that looked like a potential blip in an anomalous season, he’s seen a continued sharp drop-off at the plate. Bellinger hit .165/.240/.302 over 350 trips to the plate last year. He rebounded slightly this past season, but his .210/.265/.389 line across 550 plate appearances was still markedly worse than average.
Among 172 hitters with 800+ plate appearances over the past two seasons, Bellinger ranked dead last with a .256 on-base percentage. His .355 slugging mark is in the bottom ten. Bellinger’s 7.7% walk rate and 27.1% strikeout percentage are each worse than average, and his hard contact rate is down notably from its 2019 peak. Those extended struggles would seem to point towards Bellinger being non-tendered in lieu of such a large salary, but he’s been a strong plus outside the batter’s box. He swiped 14 bases in 17 attempts this past season and rated as an above-average baserunner overall. More importantly, he’s checked in as a plus defensive center fielder throughout his career, including a +5 runs above average from Statcast this season.
Neither Friedman nor Gomes made a definitive statement on the possibility of a non-tender, but Gomes generally praised Bellinger’s overall value. “Belli has had spurts of being really successful throughout the season,” the GM said. “I think elite defense has continued to be there, and we still think there’s (offensive) upside. So those are discussions we’re going to have moving forward as we look into what 2023 looks like.”
Friedman offered a similar sentiment when asked about the club’s $16MM option on third baseman Justin Turner. Friedman called Turner “a huge part of our success” but noted the front office needed more time to think through key roster decisions. Turner looked to be trending towards a $2MM buyout with a .256/.330/.403 showing in the first half of the season, but he made that a tough call for the front office by posting an excellent .319/.386/.503 line coming out of the All-Star Break.
No way dodgers tender Bellinger and I’m a Bellinger fan
I agree. I do think he could be the rare case of a non tender resign for less. Hes a defensive stud and excellent baserunner. We will see.
Agree. Something’s been missing for a while and I’m not sure he’ll find it again without a change of scenery.
LA has burned him out, metaphorically.
Why is it so hard for some to listen to what is being said by the people who make these decisions? It is not strictly a tender vs. non-tender decision.
The decision for LAD is whether he’s worth $18.1M. It’s obvious he is not.
Actually, it isn’t.
“.210/.265/.389 line across 550 plate appearances was still markedly worse than average.”
Worse than average for $18.1 million? If you want a guy that can run the bases well and play a great CF, then give Billy Hamilton a call. He’s league minimum.
Shows a huge flaw in the arbitration system if he can earn $18M after three straight seasons where he wouldn’t be in MLB anymore if not for his early success… if anyone gives him more than a $5M flier next year, they’re not too sharp
Fully agree Ma. System needs to be able to reward AND penalize.
That’s what the non-tender option is for…if the team doesn’t agree he’s worth the escalated salary, he will be non-tendered. Then the player can negotiate with all teams on his value.
You can’t allow teams to have 6 years of control AND allow them to cut their salary while maintaining control. That is ridiculous.
No it’s not ridiculous. With the earnings potential, players should not just be in a win win situation. Remember, most fans already can’t afford to go to many games. High reward should include risks. If there was a true risk factor, many cases would not be arbitrated. My other argument is there should be a united system affecting all players world wide based on their age.
A real lack of imagination in these responses. The non-tender option gives the team leverage, which they can use to buy out his last year and add a second. Based on the public comments made by the people who actually make the roster decisions, this is what I would expect to happen.
I totally agree, that’s the problem with the arbitration system needs t o be re-examed, some clubs get burnt! However some clubs with a lower cash inflow makes bad mistakes/trades,Ex:Brewers trade Harder because he would earn 15m(approx.)
That is not a WIN-WIN for the players. That would be win-win for the OWNERS; 6 years of control AND can decrease their pay is ridiculous. If you want the players to always have market value from year to year, then allow players to be free agents immediately.
Owners already have them under team control for 6 years; the first three the players make league min. unless the team feels generous and gives them a slight pay increase; the next three they have to go through arbitration. At any time, the team can cut them. Yes, arbitration cases nearly always increase in value from their previous year but the team can non-tender them and then renegotiate a lower value (but they can leave for another team).
Players have little-to-no leverage until they are eligible for free agency. It is not a win-win for them to be under team control. Most players, especially the top tier players would make much more money earlier in their careers if they could be free agents immediately.
You’re united socialist system is dumb too. So a 25 year old Mike Trout should make the same as some 25 year old in KBO? lol
League minimum is a poverty wage of 3/4 of a MILLION DOLLARS. If teams were not provided control for a period of time, what incentive would they have to fund the Minor Leagues?
RodBecksBurnerAccount;
I believe all MLB payers should be free agents after 2 years at the ML level.
AND that all contracts should be for 0ne year.
There’s no reason a franchise should be paying a player an astronomical salary for years because he had a great year or two earlier in his career.
The Dodgers will see Bellinger worth the $18M. He will be tendered.
You’re right – there’s no reason they should, and teams are in control of that. If they don’t want to be paying astronomical amounts for down seasons, don’t offer astronomical amounts. It’s pretty simple.
Free agency is close to a free market system – willing buyer, willing seller.
The idea that teams are hard done by when they’re on the hook for tens of millions of dollars, ignores the fact that they don’t have to offer that salary in the first place. And if they feel that they do, then that represents the market that they’re involved in.
The concept of accountability is lost on so many.
I’m not sure, I feel as though the front office is a little fatigued with Bellinger as he finds a swing that works, but then Bellinger changes his swing back.
I think it’s going to come down to if the Dodgers feel comfortable with a minor leaguer, Chris Taylor, or Trayce Thompson.
My gut tells me the Dodgers non tender him and try to resign him for less.
I know this will irk Dodger fans, but I can’t help but wonder if his situation was similar to Marwin Gonzalez, who had that one big season cuz he knew what was coming. Look, guys just don’t go from being all-world offensively, to being all-nothing without a reason.
Yeah, and for most guys, it’s injury. For Bellinger, it’s injury. – he badly hurt his shoulder, and not everyone can bounce back and be the same after that.
Fans severely over-estimate the amount of players that just “phone it in”. This is elite sport, the very best of the very best – it’s hard to get there when you’re not motivated to a degree that regular people don’t understand.
Most of the time, an elite sportsperson’s pride alone will keep them going.
Watching Bellinger he does know what pitch is coming because they always throw him high fastballs. He just can’t catch up anymore. He still swings at it, and with his long swing he doesn’t get close to hitting it. He has at times changed his swing to a quicker less powerful swing and has success with it, but then he for some reason switches back to his previous swing.
So they don’t tender him but then offer a contract maybe around 5m, filled with incentives like Batting a vg. Etc., I would like to see Outman in center along with Bellinger.
As long as we pick up Hanser’s option I’m a happy camper.
Great guy. Shouldn’t be anywhere near a batters box in the Majors, though..
If they keep belli again they are fools.
Problem is who replaces him in CF? Chris Taylor? Trayce Thompson? Joey Gallo? Kevin Kiermaier or JBJ? It’s not like there are a lot of better options available. That being said perhaps Josh Outman can claim the job. He hit pretty well in a brief stint with the team and is probably the only ML ready Outfielder they have coming up capable of play the position
Uh anyone? Not a lot of worse options out there.
I’m not sure Josh Outman’s the answer in CF for the Dodgers. However his son James Outman looks like he’s ready to take over CF for the Dodgers.
Maybe Mookie replaces him so they can sign the Judge.
Nimmo?
Kevin Pillar?
Drop him, he is not worth 18 mil
Truthfully I often felt like something was missing this year, as outstanding as the Dodgers’ regular season record was. IMO, this team was more fun when it was #ThisTeam. Missing Kiké, Kenley, Corey, Joc etc. (and their postseason contributions through the years.)
Kershaw was never going to sign with the Rangers.
Exactly. This is another one of those fantasy narratives beloved by sports writers.
If the Rangers offer him 2/$55M+ this offseason, Kershaw might bite at that if the Dodgers only commit to 1/$20M contract.
No chance. Listen to what the player says. Over and over he says he will play for as long as feels he can contribute. If he wanted years he would have gotten them from the Dodgers. But this is not about money for Kershaw. It is not about years. It’s about evaluating how he feels at the end of the season.
BlueSkies couldn’t have said it any better. You people know this already…
Spot on, BlueSky. Kershaw has been consistent in what he’s said for quite a while – but fans keep ignoring that and follow the narrative that gets pushed elsewhere.
In a world of people bending the truth, CK is as honest as they come – he’s been clear about his priorities and not shown anything different.
The Dodgers respect Kershaw so much, they’re likely going to toss aside leverage in the form of a QO, for the second straight year, just to give him time and space. He earned that.
He really hasn’t earned it. No player has. And giving a player a QO isn’t failing to give him time and space. But then again, it’s not going to matter.
Some sportswriters ignore it too, and also push the story that he might sign with Texas because, you know, an easy commute is what he’s after.
After several years of having almost no injuries, he has begun to have injuries. Mostly nagging, annoying injuries, but they take a mental and physical toll. I do love Kershaw and he is still a very effective pitcher and I hope he comes back. Now he has to think about the physical toll as well as being away from his family.
He needs to retire as a Dodger though.
He thinks about it every year. Recently he talked about his family, saying that his son is now old enough to begin appreciating what his dad does for a living. So the family factor plays both ways.
If Kershaw does end up pitching for the Rangers it wouldn’t be for the money. He could have had more lucrative deals with the Dodgers or elsewhere if it was about the money. For Kershaw it’s important to feel like he earned the money that he collected, in other words he wants to live up to the contract unlike other players who are just trying to maximize the amount of money they make. Nothing wrong with the latter, but I think Kershaw is built differently. Still seems most likely that he remains a Dodger for life but I wouldn’t completely rule out pitching for the hometown Rangers.
Also I doubt he would go to another team just because of location. Especially to a team that is not competitive, and doesn’t appear to be close to being in playoffs.
Kershaw has repeatedly said he just wants to play year to year. He wants to feel like he is contributing on a competitive team.
The only decision was wether he would retire. But based on his quotes the last couple weeks he has hinted at playing next year. He will be back in Dodger blue 100% guaranteed.
Kershaw
I have always felt that this was not just what his family wants nor that the Rangers were in the mix. It was how does Kershaw’s body feel. After 2021 there was uncertainty, after 2022 not so much. Kershaw will be back for the Dodgers in 2023 if he feels healthy. He deserves a deal that is $20 million for 2023 with a player option for $20 million in 2024. Kershaw will never admit it but getting 200 wins in 2023 and 3000 Ks in 2024 may be slightly enticing. He is a first ballot Hall of Famer right now. He seems to have fun, if he is healthy and his kids are healthy, every reason to assume he will pitch 2023 and maybe 2024 – for the Dodgers.
Bellinger
This train wreck has reached the end of the road. Sure the Dodgers could non-tender Bellinger and re-sign him for say one year and $5 million with the chance to make a little more based on statistical incentives. But I think that it is time for them to move on.
Turner Brothers
Trea is gone. Dodgers will spend money this off-season but I really doubt they will pay what Trea is going to get. My prediction is that Justin will be non-tendered. The question is will the Dodgers re-sign him for maybe one year at $8 million beyond the buyout to be a DH and back up 3B to Muncy. Or would Justin rather get 2-3 years elsewhere and get slightly more money? I see Justin coming back to the Dodgers but for less.
As a Padres fan, I’d love to see Justin head down the freeway to San Diego, and play 1B/DH for them with Bell and Myers both most likely gone.
I may be in the minority here, but what about Correa? He’s solid on both sides (offense and defense) and has a history of being clutch.
I would find it hard for the fans to stomach him on the Dodgers roster. I would think that he wouldn’t be interested either playing on the Dodgers either regardless of money offered.
Justin would be a good upgrade over Patrick Wisdom for the Cubs, 1B/3B/DH on something like 2/18. They are going to give Mervis every chance to stick at 1B but he is certainly not a sure thing. Turner could start twice a week in the field and twice a week at DH.
Trea Turner will probably get six years and 190.
LOL.
That’s not incredibly farfetched. Story got 6yr 140. So expect that to be the starting point. 6 yr 190mil might be high. But wouldn’t be surprised with a bidding war. ..these guys don’t come around all that often. Looking down the road…next few years of free agent SS aren’t pretty.
Turner is getting 7/230+
Kershaw is worth about $10 mil for 100+ innings, regardless that is a lot of money and there is no reason to expect his back will not limit his innings again. Bellinger at one time was a premier hitter, but not for a QA.
If Arenado ops out that might be something for the Dodgers to consider., especially if Turner moves on. The Dodgers have a lot to consider. Can Lux move to SS and do the Dodgers have a 2bman in the minors?
The Padres will be better than this year, on paper, so the regular season will be tougher.
Jim,
$20 million with a $20 million player option for 2024 will be fair. Charlie Morton just got $20 million for 2023 with a team option for $20 million in 2024. Kershaw pitched 126 innings in 2022 and had more than double the WAR of Morton.
Lux can move to SS but there will be a colossal drop-off in production. I’m also scared of his defense. He won’t make all the plays that Trea made and will make as many if not more errors than Trea. Busch is not quite ready for 2B. Needs a season or so before he’s ready. They can also find a 3B and move Muncy to 2B.
Dodgers should be good enough to still make playoffs in 2023 even with some cost cutting.
Vargas at 3b
I say the dodgers try to trade bellinger before the non tender deadline. Can still get an okay return from a team in need of a strong defensive center fielder who are trying to contend (Rockies, Red Sox Brewers). These teams would definitely take him for his defense, considering they all have wide outfields
Nobody is going to give anything of value for a glove only, very expensive OF. Likely he has negative trade value.
No one will trade for him knowing he will get $18M in arbitration. This is identical to Kimbrel last year. There will be interest if he is non-tendered, but just not at that price tag.
A Bellinger trade will not happen. So a team gives up a player or two for him and then has to give him 18 Million? No way.
Rockies??? lol
Not even the high spending Dodgers should take a chance with Bellinger in arbitration. He doesn’t warrant that type of raise. Business sense says nontender then resign at a more reasonable price. Let someone else gamble with the overpayment for him and that could very well happen. I also wonder how many players will be given the qualifying offer this year. Probably only the best of the best. $19.65 million million is alot of cash.
I am glad they started with the big elephant in the room, the early playoffs exit. I wish people would stop saying they got outplayed, that makes the Padres sound like a better team. I understand there is a kind of magic a team has to have to win in the playoffs, that’s what the Padres had. If they were such a good team, they would not have lost every series against the Dodgers in the regular season. Yes, I am still hurt, but it feels a little better seeing the Phils destroy the Pads.
I wouldn’t call one 2-0 victory “the Phils destroy the Pads.”
Play 162 games, sit for 5 days, it’s no advantage to any hitter, and in fact a pitcher on his normal routine that may not pitch for 7-10 days is not aided that much either. You can say all you want about resting, if it’s so good, why do a lot of players take time to get back into it after the all star break. Why did Verlander have one of his poorest starts of all of 2022.
There’s a saying for those that have played, “keep your eye in”, it applies to baseball, golf, tennis, all hand eye co-ordination sports. There’s no secret why the Dodgers bats went cold. The teams that played came in with momentum, the Astros should have lost game 1, except for Servais and his ‘analytics’ left on left bs against a guy that can hit lefties just as well as RH pitching.
Manfred is destroying baseball, there should be no 2nd and 3rd wildcards, rewarding teams that came 3rd in some divisions, otherwise don’t play 162. The play off format is a farce. The true test is 162, winning your division means little now.
The bye is terrible for baseball. Honestly it isn’t a good look when the best two NL teams got knocked out quickly, the second best AL team barley escaped, and the best AL team was super rusty (just played a weak team).
Yeah well the problem is noone wants to watch the second half of the season if the whole thing turns into a freaking boat race. Like it or not MLB is entertainment.
You don;t even have to look beyond dodger fans to understand this concept. I know about 10 Dodger fans who didn’t even know the playoffs had started because their team was so far out in front. They had basically tuned out the last couple months of the season. Do we think the fans in Cleveland, Seattle, San Diego, Philly & Milwaukee were doing the same while their teams were fighting to get in?
I know a lot of Dodger fans and not a single one of them didn’t know where the Dodgers were in the standings or when the playoffs started. I don’t know who you hang out with, but whoever they are they don’t seem to be baseball fans, let alone, Dodger fans. Kind of by definition.
The part about Dodgers fans sometimes leaving early to beat the traffic is true. The part about them not knowing what going on is less so. Every team has fans that are more knowledgeable and fans that are less knowledgeable. LA is no different.
I’ve never seen a real fan that didn’t know when his team’s playoffs were starting. After all, how hard is it to figure it out. The season ends on a Sunday. You probably start on the following Tuesday. It’s not rocket science.
The thing of it is that Manfred is doing what the owners want. Period.
@Refereemn77
Does that make it right?
Define “right.”
@BlueSkiesLA
The game is played by players, it isn’t played by owners or Manfred.
I’m not sure how that answers my question. Ownership is always going to pursue their economic best interests, at least in the way they perceive them. The commissioner is their chosen man to do it. Right or wrong doesn’t come into it.
Extending a player a QO isn’t pressuring him into making any decision. He can always decline it and then he’s free to take as long as he wants to decide if he wants to play next season and with whom.
Braves got to let bellinger go. He’s terrible. How he even had an mvp season with his ugly swing is a mystery even the best baseball minds and scientist are trying to solve
Atlanta fan
I think you meant LA not Atlanta.
It’s time to limit the postseason to first place teams, or else the longest regular season in all of sports means nothing. If the regular season means nothing, it could be significantly shorter.
The seed systems is best. 3 divisions on each side. It’s rather simple. The top seed gets a by, while the other two FIRST PLACE TEAMS, battle it out in the divisional series. That doesn’t put very many ballgames on TV though, now does it??????
@iBleeedBlue
Agreed. I long for the days of the top two teams playing each other for the championship. Darn you, 1969!
The best thing for TV…
would be a neutral site single game round robin with automatic wins for the 1 seed vs the 6 seed and for both teams in 1 vs 2. No days off except for the byes. 5-6 games a day for TV. Ties after 5 games go to the better seed. Then a best of 7 LCS and a best of 7 WS like usual.
It would also negate the long break while still giving the 1 and 2 seeds some rest, and the 6 starts off with a loss. Play the NL round robin in TEX/HOU and the AL series in LAD/SD.
But no home crowds until the LCS, so the owners would never accept it.
It would kill baseball as a sport. Why would anyone go to a ball game In San Diego or Philadelphia or Seattle or Cleveland after July if only the first-place teams went to the playoffs? All those teams had successful seasons that didn’t result in a first-place finish. Lots of very good players on all those rosters that are fun to watch in postseason play. The “old days” of just the top team going to the playoffs was when the entire MLB was almost HALF the number of teams now.
Being a Phillies fan, I saw a team transform from a22-29, going-nowhere club into one 3 wins away from the World Series. They obviously didn’t win as much as the Dodgers; but they changed so many players from the beginning of the year — the 162 games allowed them to find the team they have now, gone are the lineups with Gregorious and Herrera and Moniak and Kingery and Camargo. Familia isn’t around to blow another game. It took all 162 to figure out who they were. And it’s becoming one of my favorite Phillies teams ever because of what was overcome to get to this point. I wouldn’t have all these incredible playoff moments to remember — even if they don’t get to the World Series — if I simply was relegated to “oh, they aren’t finishing first, so why even bother paying attention” thinking. Why would players even play if they were out of contention with 60, 30 games to go?
How much fun would it be that every World Series was Dodgers-Yankees, year after year after year simply because they could outspend everyone else and essentially buy trophy after trophy?
The Dodgers and Mets and Cardinals and Braves all had significant advantages and didn’t TAKE advantage. Trust me, I’ve seen it as a Phillies fan happen, too. Phillies teams I expected to cruise to a title (here’s looking at you, 2011 Phillies) knocked out by other teams.
Don’t show everyone an elitist attitude (“my team was in first! Give them the trophy because they were!”) just because your team lost. Are playoff series supposed to continue until the “best” team wins enough games?
Seriously, stop crying about the format you maroons
That’s no way to join and participate in a good faith attempt at an intelligent conversation…..
I argue that expanded playoffs IS what killed baseball as a sport. It removed any and all incentive for owners of small market teams to give a damn about the day to day product, especially if small market teams get kickbacks from the league. That’s welfare. Vicious cycle type stuff. It is clear to me that this is why we have perennial losers and contenders. Why we have polar opposite win/loss records between first and last place. The World Series trophy has been cheapened, akin to a participation trophy. When team sports participate in the Olympics, there’s brackets and a podium at the end for a reason. Silver and Bronze don’t get to challenge Gold in a sudden death.
Are you serious? Removed incentive from Small market teams? LOL
The expanded playoffs does exactly the opposite. I guarantee owners who have seen what is going on in SD and Philly and are telling their GM right now to “just get us in”.
I hope Dodgers fans realize that everyone in the MLB universe sees that the only ones complaining about the format are you guys.
It removed any and all incentive for owners of small market teams
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It feels just the opposite. If there was no WC game, why would a small market invest in trying to catch the big market teams? You have to allow a mechanism for a .500 small market team to dream it can be a .525 and make it as the last WC.
There were only 3 teams within 10 games of 1st. Only one of those teams was a mid-cap team. None were small market. Without a WC, you could skip the trade deadline. 22 teams would be out of it, and 3 teams had the division wrapped up.
Look, my logic may be flawed as I am a casual fan at best, who happens to root for the Dodgers as a matter of family pride. I don’t take it too seriously at all. I may even hold the perspective of an outsider.
My main point centers around the illogical decision to play 162 games and allow the second place teams to play spoiler.
Giants fans were just as pissed last year.
I remained seated when the Dodgers celebrated in Texas btw. I understood immediately that it had an asterisk.
The trade deadline is for the 2nd and 3rd place teams to improve and vie for 1st place. Pretty simple motive and logic there.
iBleeedBlue
The trade deadline is for the 2nd and 3rd place teams to improve and vie for 1st place.
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And who would that be?
The 7/31, the ALE, ALW, and NLW races were over.
The only teams in contention for a 1st place finish were CL, MN, WS, ATL, NY, StL, & Mil. Among those teams, only CL & MN can be considered small market. Kill the WC, and almost no small market teams will invest to try to win a division.
“Expanded play offs”, why? Give me one good reason why there should be 2nd and 3rd wildcards when most teams are battling injuries all year. 2nd and 3rd wildcards cheapens why teams come 1st after 162 games, and I don’t care what division they are in, they still have a schedule to beat other pro baseballers and teams. The Cubs swept the Mets with barely 2 weeks ago, they didn’t tank or lie down, just one example.
Go and listen to the thoughts of Pedro Martinez, Jimmy Rollins, or Curtis Granderson on the play-off format, they ALL said that the new play-off format disadvantaged the sides that sat on their bums for 5 days, because the fact is they’ve played the game, if you haven’t played anything but rounders, you just don’t get it, sitting around for 5 days and then having to hit major league pitching. Verlander is the prime example, today he pitched lights out, and against Seattle he should’ve lost except for Servais analytics bs.
Manfred destroyed baseball and cheapened the post season so 40% of the league gets a lottery shot with bs ‘wildcards’. Those teams, eg Phillies, Tampa Bay, Padres have no business being in the post when 162 game season is the test to reach the play-offs. The cry babies are the ones that do not understand that the post season should be about the best teams making it, which is what they get rewarded with for being excellent all year, and the ‘reward’ is not a bye and sitting on your bum so you lose timing, mechanics, etc. The reward is to play as soon as possible. Making sides wait and letting these sides that play the wildcard a best of 3 get momentum is a total farce. It should go back to 1 WC from each division and a 1 game play-off. All I hear is ‘that isn’t fair’..
What’s not fair is making the best sides/teams wait for teams that shouldn’t be in the post.
I don’t disagree with much of what you say here, but you do misplace who is responsible for this system. Ownership wanted (demanded) this playoff format because it makes more money for them. Manfred’s job is doing their bidding, so scapegoating him is pointless.
The playoffs are a cash cow for the teams that get in. No payroll (that’s right, players are paid for the regular season), big TV dollars, etc. Teams want in on that money.
LOL, so the “best teams” are the ones that couldn’t win a best out of 5 series. Got it.
I wonder if all these same Dodger fans where crying last year when their team got in as a wildcard.
If we go back to the 1900’s and play just two teams in the playoffs MLB will be extinct in 5 years in today’s environment. 90% of the teams will be out of contention by June and no GM’s are going to try and improve their middle of the road team. 28 out of 30 fan bases will quit showing up the last two months. That sounds awesome……….
Just imagine how awful it would be if a team like the Yankees build up a huge lead and then Judge and Stanton get hurt again right before the playoffs. Now you have a team with a free pass to the WS because they won a bunch of games but clearly isn’t a top team at season’s end.
I’m very hard nosed about this. Yes, even as a *gulp* Dodger fan *gulp*, I can say that 2021 was BS for the Giants fans, but it also wasn’t a 20+ game difference in the standings. And it took the length of the series for the Dodgers to eliminate them. There’s a far different story from wallowing in second from start to finish.
However, that still doesn’t shift the needle in my mind. There cannot be 2nd place teams in the playoffs. There were plenty of missed chances by the Dodgers in ‘21 to take first place in the finals weeks or days of the season, and they couldn’t do it.
All these arguments of injuries and whatever else or moot. It’s sports. Don’t build your team around 1 or 2 good pitchers and 2 good position players.
Milwaukee seems like a small market to me, but I have not looked at census or tv revenue data for that area in a long time.
A four team playoff with three division winners and one wild card seems best.
I would be up for a “single consolation bracket game” between wild card two and wild card three where the players get say 5K each for winning the game. But the expanded playoffs are profitable so they are here to stay.
What if I told you that in 2021 neither of the #1 seeds made it out of the division series? (Just like this year)
What if I told you that the 2021 LCS teams were comprised of 2 wild cards and 2 division winners? (Just like this year)
This only became an issue because the Dodger fans/ media made it one.
Team construction for regular season vs post season is different. It always has been. The most glaring example is a team with one or two really good starters can damn near run the table in the post season. The 2019 Nationals won it all despite having like 2 usable pieces in their bullpen.
There’s no need for 2nd place teams in the postseason, period. I’m starting to wonder if your team is a perennial WC contender…..
I disagree the new playoff format is fine. I just disagree with having to wait five days to play a competitive game.
Hope Belli gets non tendered and the Twins sign him. Need a plan B for Buxton, maybe a change of scenery rejuvenates the offense even a little bit.
Id want no part of today’s Bellinger. He was the largest recipient of the electronic sign stealing era. Dude was lucky he was on a deep team like LA otherwise he would have been cut.
Agreed, the dude has a major issue hitting high fastballs and the league (like the WHOLE league) figured it out.
162 games, with balanced schedules, ought to be enough to determine the best team in each league. World Series is over by mid-October. Current playoff format is about $$$, nothing else.
You’re exactly right. Current format is all about $$$$. If MLB really wants a balanced schedule, they really need to shorten the season by about 10-15 games. The travel schedule and potential makeup games could be nightmarish for MLB for the 2023 season.
I agree with you, but if it ends up being the Padres vs Guardians, literally nobody outside of Cleveland or San Diego will watch. If the playoffs are all about money, that’s not exactly the type of series that you can take to the bank.
“I agree with you, but if it ends up being the Padres vs Guardians, literally nobody outside of Cleveland or San Diego will watch.”
Right.
Thank the national baseball media.
If the Red Sox and Yankees could be facing one another each year in the WS then the TV ratings would be monstrous!
Because that’s why MLB teams play 162-plus games in an attempt to get to the WS…..for TV ratings.
Bellinger and Javier Baez – the perils of the long swing.
Don’t see JT or Bellinger coming back. I think Kershaw is 50/50 on coming back. Outman and Vargas need to be in the starting lineup next season and Pepiot and Miller will get a LONG look in Spring Training. One or both could be in the rotation next season.
Interested to see what Los Karens look like next year. One thing’s for sure, they will still be crying and complaining about 2017. That never changes lol
Not interested to see what LosRockers49 has to say this time. One thing’s for sure, they will still be the only one in the comments bringing up 2017. That never changes lol
I’m a Dodgers and I’m already tired of the narrative that the Dodgers blew it. The Padres are a small market team, but don’t tell that to the guy handing out the paychecks. The Padres did everything in their power to try and beat the Dodgers at the trade deadline, getting guys like Soto, Bell and Hader, while the Dodgers did nothing of significance. The Padres beat us, fair and square. They are built to be a winning team, and they’ll be even better next year when Tatis Jr comes back. The Padres deserve all the credit here. They were just better, simply put.
Padres have a smaller TV market than Pittsburgh does. Let that sink in.
Yeah, I know. Like I said, I’m a Dodgers fan, but I have a massive respect for what they are doing down in SD. They do not play the whole “small market, small revenue” game at all. They have an ownership group that desperately wants to win, and they put their money where their mouth is. I hope they win it all.
Good on you sir, I’ll add you to my list of Dodger fans I respect. That makes one of you. LOL
Seriously though anyone who thinks what the Padres have done in the postseason is a bad thing needs a reality check. Ownership’s commitment to winning is next level and too many teams just can’t say that.
Idoster
The median income in San Diego County is approximately 60% higher than the median income in Pittsburgh. The opportunities for corporate sponsors and television revenue are also slightly better.
Of course, you are correct in pointing out that Pittsburgh has no excuse for their low payroll.
They actually weren’t better. The LAD out-hit the be a slightly decent margin, but cluster-luck prevailed. The LAD had a .704 OPS to SD’s .665. Basically, SD had 8 more singles, and LA had 6 more doubles and one more walk. Over the long run, I’d estimate that LA wins that series about 52.6% of the time.
And I guess that’s why they play the games. If I’m being neutral, and given a choice, I’d still go with the Dodgers roster. But in the NLDS, the Padres got the big hits. The Dodgers did not. They were better and outplayed us.
@derail76
Do you understand anything at all about hitting? It’s highly doubtful.
Sorry, but there’s a reason the Dodgers bats were cold, it’s called sitting on your bum and not playing proper games. All sport is about momentum, you just do not understand.
In the end, the Hader recovery and the Kimbrel flameout really did matter. If there had been one more game, LA would have had the home field advantage. Also, the Dodgers lost Buehler early on, and (wrongly) did not trust Anderson to go further into the game when the eyeball test said that he should. The Padres lost Tatis but replaced him with Soto and Bell. Basically, two good teams and it could have gone either way.
Wrongly did not trade for a starter when Buehler went down early on, or for a closer when Kimbrel flamed out (or more accurately, continued to flame out). If you aren’t going worship at the alter of Andy Friedman then you have to acknowledge that these were two, very costly FO mistakes. Will Friedman ever acknowledge these miscalculations? Probably not. Will he do anything different in the future faced with the same problem? Also, probably not.
They didn’t need a starter since they were going to run away with the division. But they did need a closer, or at minimum, a setup guy.
That’s also what made the Anderson decision more questionable. They have a nice collection of RPs, but none that I would bet the season on. The more I think about it, the worse the decision gets. In his final three innings, he allowed one 7-pitch walk, and only one ball that reached the outfield. His PC was 86.
They needed a starter to compete in the postseason. To win it all in this game you have to go belt and suspenders or hope to get lucky.
Clayton gets another year. Bellinger and both the Turners are gone. Nolan Arenado opts out and heads to LA.
The regular season has become a complete joke. This isn’t a gripe about the Padres, but no one outside of those markets thinks two sub 90 win teams should be playing for the pennant. First year of expanded playoffs and a team that wouldn’t have been in it is likely going to the World Series. If they expanded it to 7 teams and the 2022 Brewers type went on a run, people would swear it’s good for the game
Well the last time the Dodgers won the WS over half of MLB made the playoffs. So?????
Why is everyone acting like its the 1960’s all of the sudden? The wild card has been around for 27 years LOL.
The divisions got watered down long ago, along with a schedule weighted within division so bad that it’s hard to say “winning” the NL or AL in the regular season really means anything. The Dodgers played a quarter of their games against the D’backs and Rockies. The Astros have been playing a quarter of their games against the Angels and Rangers the last few years, think about how many easy wins that is.
Congrats to Pads first off. The posturing or excuses by Dodger fans is a bit embarrassing. It’s a 5 game series, don’t think too deep fellas
Now back to baseball-
Belli- C Ya and good luck elsewhere
Turner- Loved your service, I know ya had a couple good months there towards the end but the end looks like where you are at – He;s a guess/mistake hitter now who had a below avg Muncy play 3b over him for half the series as he DH’ed- Time to say good-bye
Kershaw- Pay as you Go- Man can’t belive I’m hearing complaints here, this is a dream for a front office signing year by year -Welcomed back at the 1/17 again if HE WANTS IT
Taylor- I made a post about 2.5 months ago Id put him on the block. IF, and big IF there’s some surplus value there I wouldn’t mind letting go. He’s got a 3/45 essentially leftand while that’s not bad Id wipe my hands from it today for a decent prospect if I could. That’s what Id do but I see the front office holding him as his ss/cf capabilities just fit too well with what we are possibly losing
Tre- I think he’s leaving himself, didn’t seem to love it out here tho played his part admirably- Id ink Jose Iglesisas to a 1 or 2 year deal if that’s what it took and let him and Lux split the ss duties next year
Now that leaves some money to play with, especially if the Bauer susp holds up (50/50 Imo). I wouldn’t go crazy here tho and use 2023 to duck the CBT. Going to need money here soon for Julio, Buehler, and Will Smith.
Now 2023 might not be as explosive of a team but you’d have that ledger crystal clean with only Barnes Mookie and Freeman signed for 2024 and beyond-
Use the open roster spaces to find more Thompsons, Almonte’s and Phillips that they are so good at finding.
There has been so much “All in” pressure the last couple years maybe a shake-up and getting younger (and more flexible on the ledger) can help this team grow into it’s new skin quicker
I don’t see much excess value with Taylor, given that three years remaining is a risk.
But that said, I see a really good fit with the RS. Primarily an outfielder, which we need, with pretty decent flexibility. He’s getting older, but it feels like his 2022 decline might be slightly overrated relative to age. The Fielding Bible, which I like, made him #2 behind Kiki in multi-positional rankings in 2021.
Given the lack of affordable alternatives, I like him.
And I agree on getting under the cap. You should still finish 1st, and re-capping gives you the opportunity to extend the kids and still go on a spending spree.
Well said per usual Joe;
I agree I don’t think there is much excess in Taylor (if any) but I have to thread lightly here as many disagree vehemently – Also agree on the RS, thought a Taylor for JD trade made all the sense in the world before the last TD, got ripped here but that figures-
Ida let JD expire but it woulda been nice having him in the 5 hole this past playoffs- Taylor did nothing but whiff and ride pine (granted his neck was bothersome)
But I see Trea leaving, Belli gone, and Justin Turner (*even at a reduced cost) can’t really be counted on as a boon today- Thad leave me to believe they keep Taylor at least 1 more year then could possibly flip with a 2/26 due after next year only.
I’m a little more risky, would rather parcel a year early than a year late (tho that’s easy to say/type as I have no stake )
* Also agree, this team still takes the NL West while getting the ledger under control to move forward. It wouldn’t be as dominant but that rarely matters come Oct neways- And they get those juicy 40 man spots to churn some new gold, oh so valuable
Agree with a lot of what you said especially re-setting the CBT. Bellinger can go either way but I think expecting him to turn around significantly at the plate is a lost cause so parting ways works for me. Parting ways with J Turner also makes sense. Trea is a goner. They may just replace him with Lux, although I’m scared of the defense, and either find 2B or 3B. Muncy goes to either 2B or 3B. For a cheap LF option I say bring back Joc for the strong side of the platoon with Trayce Thompson. I think they need to find a better option at CF. I’d rather have Taylor come off the bench/filling in for injuries. I think he loses a lot of his value when he becomes a starter. The K rate is way too high and gets way too streaky with slumps. I never liked the re-signing of Taylor. He was extremely valuable when he was cheap. When he got paid that value became a loss. That leaves a big hole at CF. Hope they can sign a cheaper upgrade to Bellinger.
Keep signing Kershaw on one-year deals until he wants to retire. Hope they can bring back Anderson at not a costly rate. Need the younger talent to start producing. Not very high on Rios but he can probably fill a bench spot. Between Vargas, Outman, Busch, etc. One or two needs to step up and become a starter in the next year or two. Hoping that Miller can continue to refine his command so that they can slot him in the rotation. Same for Pepiot.
A player’s value to a roster doesn’t change depending on how much he is paid. That’s total money ball reasoning. It only changes based on how he performs.
Of course how much a player gets paid determines his value. The only way it doesn’t is if you assume a club has an infinite amount of money. You can’t assume that even for the Dodgers. Big part of why the Dodgers have been so successful over the last 10 years is finding great sources of cheaper talent/production. Home grown or reclamation projects. If they didn’t have that they’d have to go into the open market to trade for or sign those players. That’s either going to hit you in the pocket book or farm system, or both.
Don’t get me wrong Taylor has at times performed very well, but his low pay magnified his worth. When his production fell off and he started getting paid more he was not as valuable. I was one of those that argued for letting Taylor walk. He’s just not as valuable. Versatility is overrated if you don’t produce, especially if you don’t produce and get paid too much.
That assumption isn’t required for my point at all. A bad player doesn’t become a good player because he’s cheap, or vice-versa. His ability to contribute to winning games is completely independent of his salary. I realize it’s popular in places like this to try to guess how much a team has to spend or will spend on talent, but the reality is we as fans have no way to do more than guess. So I leave that to the people who actually know. Bottom line, with a player such as Bellinger (or anyone else, really), if he’s on the roster, he’s there to fill a role. You don’t keep him on the roster if he can’t fill the role no matter how much or how little he is paid.
Except that a good cheap player can be traded for better assets than a good expensive player.
Well, I can tell you that going over CBT every year is NOT a sustainable model. At some point you have to reset as the penalties are incrementally larger. We may not know exactly how much the team will spend on a given year but we all know the reset is coming sooner or later as the penalties are incrementally larger.
Your argument still makes little sense. It’s not just a player’s ability, as there are many ways to replicate the production on the field, as the Dodgers have proven with various players, but at what cost? Despite the large payroll dollars, this is the bread and butter of the Dodgers’ past success. Finding cheaper talent.
Seager would still be a Dodger if it was just about ability. Same for K Hernandez. They had talent and had roles. But guess what the Dodgers said for Seager at $30mm plus it’s not close to value. Same for K Hernandez who was paid league minimum when he came to the Dodgers. The pay kept increasing to the point where he was not as valuable to the Dodgers. Doesn’t mean he can’t play, just not worth the dollars. Similar path for Taylor. I was pretty surprised Friedman okay’d that deal. Taylor at league minimum was a steal and his pay went up to $3.5mm to $6.7mm, he was still worth the money even at lower production. Then you went to $15mm and the only way he is worth that amount is if he puts up his better years. Even then it’s not a very good deal.
Blue has long believed the pot is endless; don’t bother trying to convince him it is not
He doesn’t care about the CBT
I get what your saying 2015, it makes perfect sense and is the same way I view it – *Opportunity cost Blue
How can I have “long believed” something I’ve never believed and certainly never said?
In what way am I supposed to “care” about the CBT? What does this even mean?
I can come up with opinions entirely on my own, thank you. If you want to know what I actually believe or care about, just read what I say. I’m not speaking in riddles. Or, you could just ask. Not too difficult an assignment, I hope!
You’re missing the point, which is far less complicated than you are making it out to be. The most finite (and consequently most valuable) resource on a baseball team is the roster. It isn’t “cost effective” or whatever you want to call it for a team to take up a roster spot with a player if he isn’t filling some role on the team, and it doesn’t become a better allocation of that resource if he’s cheap. Remember, I was responding to your argument that it does matter somehow. Bellinger is a perfect example of why it doesn’t matter in the way you believe it does. If the Dodgers retain him it will be fill the CF role, and he isn’t going to fill that role any better or worse depending on how much they pay him. Of course they’d prefer to pay him as little as possible to fill this role, but that has nothing to do with the point.
I’m sorry but disagree in many ways. Roster is more fungible than you think and money matters a lot more than you think. When Bellinger was NL MVP in 2019 he made $605,000. Probably the biggest steal in MLB history. He was probably worth $30mm that season. With that kind of production you can spend more elsewhere.
Here is where you’re wrong again. It does matter what the Dodgers pay Bellinger. Let’s face it, any amount that you pay Bellinger is not all based on what he’s done last two seasons or else he would be getting paid a lot less even with his great defense. You’re paying for the hope (albeit fading these days) of some kind of bounce back in 2023. Now, if you’re paying him $5mm (never going to happen), you’d gladly take a gamble on that. If you’re paying anywhere near the $18mm that is projected you’re more likely to say thanks but no thanks. Now, sure a deal could be made somewhere in between. But ultimately money matters because money that is committed to an $18mm Bellinger (or whatever the amount will be) could be spent elsewhere. Any figure that is considered for Bellinger for 2023, the Dodgers will evaluate if they can get someone else in free agency that can perform better than Bellinger at a cheaper rate. Or can they acquire someone without hurting the farm system too much. Now, ultimately, yes the decision is going to be on whether the Dodgers genuinely believe that Bellinger can turn it around. They’ve given him a long leash and he’s yet to show that he’s been worth the money. Time is running out for Bellinger.
The one thing that Bellinger may have solved though was concern that the Dodgers would not have been able to sign all their young stars. It’s kind of playing out. They said no thanks to Seager. Bellinger looks like a “no”, even if he’s retained for a season. So that leaves the future dollars for Urias, Smith, Buehler. Need to replenish the young talent pipeline from the farm. Lux has not lived up to expectations so far. Let’s hope Busch, Vargas, Outman, Miller, Pepiot or whoever else can be the next young Dodger star.
Your response has nothing whatsoever to do with my point, and I’m afraid I can’t make it any simpler or clearer than I have already.
Philly and SD are both lux tax teams, let’s not pretend they’re Cleveland. Yes, the Mets, Yankees and Dodgers spend more but they’re not small market.
Get rid of Bellinger, T. Turner, Kimbrell, Price. Buy out J Turner and resign him for 1 year 8mil. Resign Kershaw, Tyler Anderson, Evan Phillips, Chris Martin and Trace Thompson. See who else is available in free agency.
Bellinger is obvious, not sure how this is debatable.
James Outman will be the CF, Miguel Vargas at 3rd, Kershaw will retire, Dodgers have Ryan Pepiot, Michael Grove as pitchers, Dodgers are loaded
And the Dodgers finish second or third in the division. But thanks for the plan.
Hahahahaa Imagine Blue Skies? 3rd place? The City would burn.
Maybe it should. Friedman needs a wakeup call.
Vargas as an everyday player is possible, but they did already re-sign Muncy. Unless Kershaw and Anderson both return, they will need to get free agent pitching neither Miller nor Grove are ready.
Vargas has really struggled playing 3B. I wonder if he’s even an option there longer-term. Would have rake the crap off the ball to off-set the bad defense. Probably needs to transition to 1B or LF, and even so, probably not a very good glove. At this point he’s a bench option with hopefully a plus bat. On the other hand probably want him to get more ABs in the minors and buckle down on defense.
MLB once had 2 teams make the playoffs with 20 teams, then 4 teams with 24 and 26 with expansion. Then 8 teams made the playoffs when they expanded to 28 and eventually 30. I think 8 with 30 is fine, then they said it wasn’t fair for the division winners. So they went to 10 with the play in game that no one liked. Now it’s 12 or 40 percent of the league with the advent of the byes..
Baseball for TV money has rendered their regular season meaningless. Just have to get in. The sport went from 10 percent of the teams being in the postseason to 40, that’s a joke.