With the offseason drawing nearer, MLBTR will be breaking down the free-agent class on a position-by-position basis. We’ve already run through this winter’s crop of catchers, first basemen, second basemen and third basemen. You can check out the full list of this offseason’s free agents here, but today we’ll dive into yet another deep class of star-caliber shortstops who are likely to become available.
The Big Four
- Xander Bogaerts (30 years old next season)
While not technically a free agent yet, there’s no doubt that Bogaerts will opt out of the remaining three years and $60MM on his contract — if the two parties can’t first work out an extension. That’ll be the team’s focus for the next month, but failing a new long-term deal, Bogaerts will opt out, receive a qualifying offer, reject it and become a free agent for the first time in his career.
The 2022 season marked something of an odd year for the four-time All-Star and four-time Silver Slugger winner. Bogaerts’ power numbers (15 home runs, .149 ISO) dipped to their lowest point since 2017, but he also enjoyed the defensive season of his career by measure of virtually every publicly available metric (4 Defensive Runs Saved, 4.9 Ultimate Zone Rating, 5 Outs Above Average).
In seasons past, Bogaerts’ glove was seen as his primary flaw. He’s typically graded out as a below-average defender and been seen as a candidate for an eventual position change. This year’s performance will likely quiet that chatter for now, and while the drop in power is of some concern, power was down throughout the league and Bogaerts did regain some extra-base pop in the season’s final couple months.
Besides, his .307/.377/.456 batting line from 2022 was still excellent, and when looking at the past half-decade on the whole, Bogaerts owns a stout .300/.373/.507 slash with 105 homers, 177 doubles, a 9.9% walk rate and an 18.1% strikeout rate in 2737 plate appearances. He’ll play all of next season at 30 years old, and it’s reasonable to expect the market could produce at least a seven-year deal for him.
- Carlos Correa (28)
There was never much doubt, but last week, Correa publicly declared for the first time that he’ll opt out of the remaining two years and $70.2MM on his contract (barring an extension before his opt-out date, five days after the World Series). Correa will return to the open market having just turned 28 years old and on the heels of a strong .291/.366/.467 batting line in what could very well be his lone season as a Twin. He’s said all the right things about enjoying his time in Minnesota and hoping to ink a long-term deal in a setting that his young family has already grown to love, but an extension feels like a long shot.
The 2022 season wasn’t Correa’s best, but that’s only because of the lofty standards he’s previously established. Correa was 40% better than average with the bat, by measure of wRC+, but his previously Platinum Glove-winning defense fell to merely above-average, per DRS and UZR. (Notably, OAA pegged his glovework as actually slightly below average.) Twins brass has spent much of the year lauding Correa’s glovework, leadership and clubhouse presence. There’s surely some genuine interest in keeping him, but doing so would require eclipsing Joe Mauer’s $184MM guarantee for the largest contract in franchise history — likely by a rather large margin.
Correa had plenty of injuries earlier in his career and had a pair of brief IL stints in 2022 due to a minor finger injury and a spell on the Covid list. But he’s played in 89% of his team’s games over the past three seasons and logged a hefty 132 wRC+ in that span. Since 2018, his 50 DRS are tied for sixth-most in MLB, regardless of position. His 45 OAA places him seventh.
It’s hard to imagine Correa securing the reported $330MM+ he was reportedly seeking in free agency last winter. He’s a year older now and coming off a strong but lesser season than his career year in 2021. That said, he’s still squarely in his prime, is generally regarded as a plus contributor on both sides of the ball and in the clubhouse, and he finished out the season on a high note, ranking as one of the AL’s most productive bats over the final two months. He’s also the only one of this top-tier group that can’t receive a qualifying offer (by virtue of receiving one last year).
- Dansby Swanson (29)
Traded by the Diamondbacks just six months after being selected with the No. 1 pick in 2015, Swanson made his big league debut barely one year after that top overall selection. After a few years of anywhere from lackluster to downright poor offensive output, Swanson turned a corner in 2019 and, since 2020, has been an above-average offensive player: .265/.324/.451, 62 home runs, 80 doubles, three triples, 32-for-42 in stolen bases.
Granted, by measure of wRC+, Swanson has “only” been nine percent better than league-average at the plate in that three-year span (though 16% in 2022 alone). But, for a player who provides plenty of baserunning value and has been considered anywhere from a plus to an elite defender at shortstop, that’s plenty of bat. Swanson’s 2022 season, in particular, has been sensational in the eyes of DRS (9) and OAA (20). Statcast has been particularly bullish on Swanson’s defense over the years, ranking him 13th among all big leaguers in OAA (38) and 15th in Runs Above Average (28) since the start of the 2018 season.
Swanson will receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Braves, subjecting him to draft pick compensation this winter. At 29 years old this February, he’s the second-youngest in this top tier. Swanson surely took note as both Javier Baez and Trevor Story — who also had a qualifying offer attached to him — landed six-year deals with $140MM guarantees last year at the same age last winter.
- Trea Turner (30)
Quite arguably the best shortstop on the market this winter, Turner will reach free agency for the first time on the heels of a .298/.343/.466 slash (128 wRC+) in 160 games and 708 plate appearances. Turner’s 21 homers this year were down from last year’s career-best 28, and with “just” 27 steals (in 30 tries), he’s perhaps no longer the annual threat for 40-plus steals he was earlier in his career.
That said, Turner has hit .298 or better in each of the past four seasons and has never fanned at even a 20% clip in a full Major League season. He’s batted .311/.361/.509 (133 wRC+) over the past four seasons, played in 89.6% of possible games along the way (92% since 2018) and averaged 26.5 home runs and 35.1 steals per 162 games played. Turner graded as a standout defender at shortstop in 2018 but has been about average by measure of both DRS and OAA since that time. Even if he eventually moves off shortstop, Turner’s athleticism figures to make him adaptable to a new position; he posted plus defensive grades in two months as the Dodgers’ second baseman following the 2021 trade that sent him to L.A.
Turner, who’ll turn 30 next June, is younger than Bogaerts but 10 months older than Swanson and nearly two years older than Correa. Like Bogaerts and Swanson, he’s both eligible to receive and extraordinarily likely to reject a qualifying offer, which will subject him to draft-pick compensation this winter. With the market’s very top free agents, that’s often the cost of doing business and rarely something that will cause a big-market club to withhold interest entirely — but it’s a factor that’s at least worth noting.
The ten-year megadeals that 30-year-old free agents were once occasionally able to command (e.g. Robinson Cano, Albert Pujols) have generally fallen to the wayside, as teams tend to reserve lengths of ten or more years for players who are in their mid-20s. Position players reaching the market around Turner’s age have more recently been capped at signing through age-37, which would mean an eight-year deal in Turner’s case. Given his rare blend of power and speed, his durability and his general athleticism, Turner can also expect to command a salary near the top of the AAV scale for position players.
Veterans Coming Off Solid Seasons
- Elvis Andrus (34)
At 34, Andrus isn’t the player he once was, but he still hit quite well after being released by the A’s and signing with the White Sox (.271/.309/.464, nine homers in 191 plate appearances). The 17 home runs Andrus hit this past season were his most since 2017. (It bears mentioning, too, that his release was less about his level of play than about ensuring that he didn’t receive the playing time to trigger a $15MM player option.)
A premier defender earlier in his career, Andrus now receives split grades from defensive metrics. Statcast still feels that he’s a plus defender, but DRS has given him negative marks for the past four years. If a team agrees that Andrus remains at least an above-average shortstop, this year’s rebound at the plate could net him a two-year deal. At the very least, Andrus should command a one-year, Major League contract to serve as a team’s primary shortstop.
- Aledmys Diaz (32)
Diaz has played at least 45 innings at five different positions this season: all four infield spots and left field. He was primarily a shortstop early in his career and still has more total innings there than at any position. He never graded well there, and as he enters his mid-30s, he’ll be viewed as more of a utility player. Diaz’s .255/.302/.427 line in 2022 is quite similar to the .259/.318/.433 slash he’s posted over four total seasons with the ’Stros. He’s a right-handed bat who’s shown a pretty noticeable platoon split over the past couple seasons, though early in his career he hit fellow righties better than lefties. He’s had just eight plate appearances with the Astros in the postseason thus far, going 1-for-7 and also getting hit by a pitch.
- Jose Iglesias (33)
Like Andrus, Iglesias was once considered one of MLB’s top defensive shortstops but has seen his ratings plummet. He posted a staggering -22 DRS with the Angels and Red Sox in 2021, though he bounced most of the way back in 2022 and finished with a -4 mark. OAA has him as a scratch defender over the past few years.
At the plate, Iglesias continues to post solid or better batting averages thanks to excellent bat-to-ball skills, but he still has one of the worst walk rates in the game. He hit .292/.328/.380 with the Rockies in 2022. Iglesias will turn 33 in January and, after signing one-year deals in his last two trips to the open market, will find similar offers this winter.
Notable Rebound Hopefuls
- Didi Gregorius (33)
It’s been a swift decline for Gregorius, who starred in the Bronx as the successor to Derek Jeter and looked strong in the first season of his post-Yankees career, hitting .284/.339/.488 for the Phillies while playing in all 60 games of the shortened 2020 campaign. In two seasons since, he’s flopped with a .210/.267/.345 batting line, leading to his release in August. He won’t turn 33 until February, so there’s time for him to bounce back, but the 2021-22 seasons were disastrous.
- Andrelton Simmons (33)
It’s hard to compare the defense of current players to those from prior generations, but Simmons has a legitimate case as one of the greatest defensive players ever. He’s the all-time leader in DRS, which dates back to 2002, and is fourth since the inception of UZR and OAA. He has four Gold Glove Awards and a Platinum Glove win, and Simmons would probably have more hardware were it not for a few injury-shortened seasons. Unfortunately, his bat has also cratered in recent years, with just a .216/.277/.261 slash between the Twins and Cubs in 2021-22. Among hitters with at least 500 plate appearances over the past two seasons, Simmons ranks third-worst with a 53 wRC+. The Cubs released him on Aug. 7.
- Jonathan Villar (32)
Villar hit 24 homers and swiped 40 bags with the O’s in 2019, struggled through a dismal showing between Miami and Toronto in 2020, and rebounded nicely with the 2021 Mets. The pendulum swung back in the other direction this year, as he was released by both the Cubs and Angels while hitting a combined .208/.260/.302. At his best, Villar is a switch-hitter with some power and difference-making speed, but he’s been wildly inconsistent in a career that has featured more valleys than peaks.
Depth Options
- Johan Camargo (29): Camargo had a big 2018 season with the Braves and has never recreated it, hitting .219/.271/.348 over the past four seasons. He’s a utility option but did log 186 innings at shortstop for the Phillies this year.
- Alcides Escobar (36): Escobar had a brief resurgence with the 2021 Nats, but that was the only time since 2014 his bat has been close to average. He hit .218/.262/.282 in 131 plate appearances with Washington this year.
- Marwin Gonzalez (34): Gonzalez played only 94 innings at short from 2019-21, but the Yankees gave him 134 innings there in 2022. The veteran switch-hitter is primarily a utility option, though, and this year’s .185/.255/.321 slash in 207 plate appearances leaves plenty to be desired.
- Dixon Machado (30): Machado hit .280/.359/.393 in 277 games in the Korea Baseball Organization from 2020-21 and posted similar Triple-A numbers between the Cubs and Giants this year. He’s never hit in the Majors, however, evidenced by a .226/.285/.292 batting line in 522 trips to the plate.
- Deven Marrero (32): A former first-round pick and top prospect, Marrero is a .191/.246/.279 hitter in 373 Major League plate appearances across parts of seven seasons. He saw brief time with the Mets in 2022.
- Richie Martin (28): The top pick by the Orioles in the 2018 Rule 5 Draft, Martin survived his Rule 5 season in the Majors but never found his stride, perhaps in part due to injuries. He’s now a career .212/.261/.311 hitter in 447 MLB plate appearances and has just a .240/.336/.366 slash in parts of two Triple-A seasons.
- JT Riddle (31): Riddle got some run with the Marlins in 2017-19 but has barely surfaced in the Majors since. He’s a .223/.261/.354 hitter in 797 MLB plate appearances.
- Dee Strange-Gordon (34): The fact that the 2022 Nats gave Strange-Gordon 100 innings at shortstop for the first time since 2013 says more about the team than the player. The three-time NL steals champ hasn’t logged 100 plate appearances in a season since 2019. He hit .305 in 59 plate appearances this year but did so without a walk and with just two extra-base hits. Since 2018, he’s batted .268/.293/.343 in 1150 plate appearances.
- Tyler Wade (28): Wade hit .264/.354/.328 in 145 plate appearances with the 2021 Yankees but has couldn’t duplicate it with the 2022 Angels. He’s a .214/.291/.298 hitter in the Majors but does have some defensive versatility to go along with a more palatable .279/.353/.408 slash in parts of four Triple-A seasons.
Yoshis Javelin
Trea Turner as he ages might be a Paul Molitor, play anywhere/everywhere and keep producing kind of player. I’m not sure the others will transition as well when their SS days are over.
bravesfan
Think the answer depends on where you put them vs Turner seeming to be a jack of all type guy. I see no reason CC can’t be a legit 3B or corner outfield guy. Heck, even 1st if needed. Swanson prob handles the entire infield fine if needed, and same with X. I just think Turner can likely play anywhere at an elite lvl
.
You are right. He is like Mookie. Can play IF or OF no problemo! He would be like another Mookie in the OF…
Cosmo2
There will never be another Paul Molitar.
lettersandnumbersonly
was there ever a first Paul Molitar?
whyhayzee
He was teammates with Robin Yaunt.
jimthegoat
And Jason deGrom and Chris Paddock
C Yards Jeff
I believe Paul is the only member of the 3000 hut club who’s 3000th hit was triple. Gnarly.
amk1920
Dansby is not in the same universe with the other 3. This was supposedly his big breakout season and he finishes with a 115 OPS+. He’s a 75 million dollar player. Anything more is insane.
WillieMaysHayes24
He finished tied with Bogarts for the highest SS WAR @ 5.7
Offense isn’t the only measure of a players worth my friend.
amk1920
That’s why I put him at 75 million. Offense alone and he’s barley worth 50.
Poster formerly known as . . .
“Offense alone and he’s barley worth 50.”
I don’t mean to be corny, but I think you’re going against the grain with that estimate. But, wheatever.
Poster formerly known as . . .
Kidding aside, Fangraphs ranks Swanson a second-tier shortstop, tied with Turner at 6.3 fWAR. He’s the second-youngest of this list’s Big Four, and Statcast ranks him by far the best defender of all qualified shortstops (for what that’s worth). He’s going to do a lot better in free agency than you’re giving him credit for.
fox471 Dave
NashvilleJeff
I agree Fink, but Samuel’s assured me that Amed Rosario is a “slam dunk” as the better of the two. Guess it’s lucky for Dansby that Rosario’s not a FA until after 2023……….
saluelthpops
Agreed
amk1920
Braves fans swarmed me when I said Pache was overrated. Now Swanson goes his entire team control years without an OPS+ over 115 and all of a sudden he’s a top tier guy? Don’t see it. You can root for your team to overpay him, but it will be a disaster.
NashvilleJeff
I didn’t swarm you. Plenty of Braves fans like me had long believed that Pache would never hit. Sounds like you’ve got some hurt feelings because someone disagreed w/you. Being “right” about Pache has nothing to do w/Swanson or his steady improvement over the last 3 years. He wasn’t ready and kept getting injured his first 3 years in the ML. Not the case since 2020. Solid and sometimes more, under rated, improving, and healthy. I haven’t seen anyone saying he should be paid anywhere near the “consensus” (to some anyway) top 2 SS’s Correa and Turner will get. Looking forward to you admitting you were wrong on that “disaster” comment in a few years. You will, right? You stopped by for your pound of flesh on Pache, so I’m confident you’ll come back for a big old heaping serving of crow if you’re wrong on Swanson. Cheers.
Samuel
NashvilleJeff;
Have you seen Amed Rosario play with Cleveland?
Samuel
“Sounds like you’ve got some hurt feelings because someone disagreed w/you.”
Pot. Kettle.
getrealgone2
Swanson is not gonna be worth the money he’s asking. I hope the Braves don’t sign him to some ungodly contract because Freeman didn’t come back.
DTD/ATL1313
Well, how much is he asking?
hllywdjff
Turner to the Mariners 7/250…
toycannon
Amen. Then see if they can trade in JP for another 2B like Gavin Lux
bravesfan
Ideal fantasy world, Braves go get DeGrom and Turner this offseason and let Swanson walk. There, I said it. But every Braves fan knows it, Swanson contract this offseason might command something like $150 mil and he’s not that guy. He’s had a great season, but we have all seen how bad his lows are. Yes, when he’s hot, he plays like the best player in all of baseball. But when he’s cold, he looks like a middle school kid swinging the bat at air…. Literally the worse player in the league. It all may average out over a year, but he never actually plays at an avg lvl. Us Braves fans all fear that he get stuck in one of those cold zones and never gets out…
Samuel
bravesfan;
The object is “buy low, sell high”.
Not “buy high, and hope you don’t get stuck with a too bad a contract in the out years”.
NashvilleJeff
Didn’t you watch Trea Turner take all those hopeless swings at sliders in the left hand batter’s box when he was w/the Nats? He still does it now. Not the glove Swanson is, and he’ll probably get close to twice the money. Last thing the Braves need is to get stuck w/Turner for 8 budget crippling years as his legs go. Better off paying Dansby 147 (21 mil AAV) for 6 years w/a cheap option on the 7th year—if he’ll take it. Btw, I’m a lifelong Braves fan, and you certainly don’t speak for me when it comes to your opinion on Swanson. Think you should watch more baseball if you really want to see “literally the worse player in the league.” Here’s a hint: It isn’t Swanson, even when he’s “cold.” There’s a ton of value in a SS who you know is going to make all the routine plays, hits w/power, and brings value on the base paths. He’s a winner. Keep him.
.
Nashville, Trea and Justin Turner have the same affliction with the lazy hopeless swings at times…
NashvilleJeff
Seems to afflict a lot of players Trumbo. Maybe I’m jaded, but it seems like I see a lot more hitters give ab’s away now than even 10 years ago. Contact doesn’t matter as much, an effective two strike approach is a thing of the past for too many all or nothing hitters. I love home runs as much as anyone, but seeing a guy cut down on his swing w/2 strikes to punch a ball through the infield instead of swinging wildly and striking out is ……better.
Yanksfan75
Nashville…..
Man u nailed it wish that style of hitting and small ball comes back the homer or K getting very old ….everyone loves homers but true skill or even a form of art is to cut that swing down punch it thru…so happy you said that thank you
.
Naahville, couldn’t have said it better myself..
Cosmo2
I do t think that style of hitting ever existed. Players struck out less in the old days for other reasons. The idea that players at any point in modern baseball generally would swing differently according to the count is a fan myth. Players almost uniformly have one swing and one approach. Again, this multiple swings and approaches according to the count has always been a myth.
.
Not everyone can be Ichiro, Tony Gwynn, Teddy Ballgame, George Sisler, Joe D, Juan Pierre…..
NashvilleJeff
So players never choked up w/ 2 strikes to increase swing leverage? I must have imagined seeing that countless times over the last 55 years of being totally engrossed in the game. Must have imagined listening to players and broadcasters talking about two strike approaches too. There’s some truth to your comment that “players struck out less in the old days for other reasons,” but there was a time in baseball’s not so long ago past that players avoided striking out. Plenty of them did cut down on their swings w/2 strikes in an effort to make contact. Sure some didn’t (mostly the classic power hitters), but saying that it’s a “myth” isn’t accurate.
NashvilleJeff
Should read …….”increase contact swing leverage” as in a shorter and more controlled swing.
Cosmo2
So players never choke up…? less than one percent do. It’s a myth that it’s even been generally done
Cosmo2
And you didn’t imagine what announcers said, you were just gullible enough to buy it. Announcers are entertainers, not scholars.
NashvilleJeff
“Less than one percent do.” Make up a number to bolster an opinion that’s being put forth as a fact. There’s a word for that I won’t use, but (unlike you) I don’t feel it’s necessary to insult you because you disagree w/my opinion. Btw, the color guys employed by teams/networks are former athletes who usually provide plenty of interesting inside analysis. Guess you have to be “gullible” to think that anything they say might be true. Right?
NashvilleJeff
So baseball broadcasters and color guys don’t inform as well as entertain? The best of them do. Ever listen to Vin Scully? How about the old WTBS Braves broadcast crews w/Skip Carey or Pete Van Wieren (nicknamed The Professor because of his scholarly approach to informing his audiences)? Countless former players on team and network broadcasts? Ron Darling on your Mets broadcasts is one of the best in the business. Keith Hernandez often lauds Pete Alonso for choking up w/2 strikes. Is he “gullible?”
Cosmo2
Ugh, just ugh. Keep getting your info from color announcers rather than actually researching. Hitters don’t change their swing from at bat to at bat or pitch to pitch. Outlier examples of the rare exceptions and throw away comments from announcers doesn’t change that.
NashvilleJeff
“ugh, just ugh”? Probably won’t help you, but you could try actually watching games. Instead, you invent a stat (“less than 1%) to advance your opinion (“It’s a myth that it’s even been generally done”) that you’re trying to claim is based on “actual research.” Would think a Mets fan would have seen McNeil, Guillorme, Nimmo, and yes—Alonso w/2 strikes at times—-often choking up. Hitters do change swings to fight off pitches (usually w/2 strikes in an effort to stay alive) and make contact in certain situations. Couple of examples in the Game 2 ALCS last night. Two Yankees both changed their swing and choked up. Gleyber Torres w/men on 1st and 3rd, 1 out in the 5th. Shortened his swing to make contact. Gb infield rbi single to deep short. Ron Darling, Jeff Francoeur both commented on his approach/swing change. Anthony Rizzo in the 9th. W/2 strikes, he moved up to the front of the box trying to get ahead of a slider. Moved up so far that his front foot was out of the box. He was also choked up the entire ab. I’ll be glad to read any link to the “actual research” that you’re using to base your opinion on. Btw, color guys are only one of many ways to get info. Didn’t claim that they’re my sole source.
Cosmo2
Fair enough. I still say that research shows that this is rare and that 99% (it’s just an expression, don’t get yer panties in a bunch) of what announcers say (especially Mets guys) is just talk to fill air space, never a good place for information, just entertainment. I’d trust your observations before I’d trust what an announcer says.
NashvilleJeff
Ok. I definitely agree w/your last sentence. Btw, I’ve mentioned to several others on the site that I have respect for your opinions and that imo you’re an unbiased, well informed Met/baseball fan. Sorry if the tone of the conversation went in a direction that I didn’t intend. Maybe I like Ron Darling so much is because he makes the Braves team look so bad………..
Cosmo2
Nah, it wasn’t you at all, I was being kind of a jerk, I admit. I wasn’t trying to be rude but I’ve been a bit unfiltered lately. I gotta check myself a bit I guess.
NashvilleJeff
Easy to come across in ways we don’t intend on the internet Cosmos. I’ve got a good sense of humor (imo) and and try to keep an open mind to different opinions. I still have some really eye rolling, smh, good grief moments when I re-read things that I’ve posted. Can’t tell you how many times I’ve thought “Crap, that isn’t what I meant to say at all” even after I’ve edited out “the bad stuff.” Appreciate the conversation and hope your Mets get you something you want for Christmas.
bravesfan
1st; I said fantasy world, which is me completely erasing contract concerns. Of course that make getting both players a much different scenario. But all else being equal, it’s silly to deny that turner isn’t in a totally different class than Swanson. The numbers don’t lie. If Swanson maintains what he did this year, 140-150 for whatever years is perfectly reasonable. My argument is to merely suggest that even at the much higher cost, turner is still the safer pick of the two, hands down.
bravesiowafan
Swanson did ride a .350 babip with like a career .302 babip before that. Definitely some offensive regression in store
NashvilleJeff
Always possible, but maybe he’s found another gear w/his improved approach.
JoeBrady
“Another gear” is always the argument, but it seldom works out. He’s obviously better than guys like Soler &Avisail Garcia supposedly found a new gear/improved approach, but guys generally trend to their career numbers.
NashvilleJeff
Don’t entirely disagree Joe, but I lean toward discarding Swanson’s first 3 years in evaluating him. He wasn’t ready to be called up and tried to play through too many injuries. I know it’s not “fair” to judge a player w/out using all his stats, but imo Swanson’s improvement over his last 3 years seems sustainable. Might just be the hopeful Braves fan in me that wants this to be true.
DTD/ATL1313
I don’t see anyone offering 150 for Dansby. I can see Atl offering 6/120 it can’t see them or anyone else going beyond that.
NashvilleJeff
We’ll find out soon. After he signs, the discussion on what he’ll be offered and where he’s going will shift to “is he worth what they paid.” The never ending salary discussion cycle. Hope it happens soon anyway.
TheGreatBaseballMind
I predict Turner will remain in LA and sign with the Dodgers.
Samuel
What? Not the Rangers?
There’s a team that can use a $300m-plus super utility guy that can spell one of the two $500m middle infielders when they need a rest. He looks athletic so he can play all the other positions on the team as well. Maybe even do a little catching.
TheGreatBaseballMind
While persuasive, Samuel :), I will stick with Turner staying with the Dodgers.
C Yards Jeff
Turner to the highest bidder. Shocked if it’s someone other than the Dodgers.
Poster formerly known as . . .
“He never graded well there, and as he enters his mid-30s, he’ll be viewed as more of a utility player.”
Diaz just turned 32 in August. I wouldn’t say he’s entered his mid-30s yet. He’s nearer his early 30s. I think his sub-par bat over the last three seasons will reduce his payday more than his age will.
Cosmo2
32 is already old for baseball. Decline generally hits big at about 31 and gets worse.
Poster formerly known as . . .
While acknowledging that you said “generally,” it’s not that simple. Different skills peak at different ages:
baseballprospectus.com/news/article/9933/how-do-ba…
urnuts
Swanson to LA Angels , 5 years $80 million.
NashvilleJeff
Not even close to what the Braves would pay to keep him. He’s a lock for 130 plus over 6. I’m probably low by a year and 20 mill on that.
urnuts
Story got a 6 year deal $140 million with a career WAR of 29.3 while Swanson has a career WAR of 14.5. You believe he deserves the same contract as Story? I hope he resigns with the Braves if that is what it will take to sign him . He may be the next A Simmons who had a couple of descent offensive seasons and then regressed to his first few seasons in MLB. Glove and no bat.
There is a reason Atl moved Simmons and likely will be moving on from Swanson.
NashvilleJeff
Atlanta moved Simmons because they committed to a hard rebuild. They moved every sizable contract they could at that time. Simmons also played for a different FO. There’s no valid comparison between the two situations. Yes, imo Swanson will get a comparable contract to the one Story received. Doesn’t matter what I think, but Story looks like a 2Bman now because of his bad arm. In any case, what does Story’s past when he still had physical skills have to do w/Swanson’s current ability and possible upside? The Braves FO is coldly proficient at being able to evaluate their own players. They won’t re-sign him because he’s a fan favorite or let him go because internet analysts think they should. AA will set a price point and Swanson will take it or not. Letting Freeman leave in free agency and quickly pivoting to trade for Olson proves it.
urnuts
If you compare Swanson’s 23-29 seasons vs Simmons and both were on the market Simmons would command a larger contract. Interesting -Simmons during this period finished in the MVP voting top 15 – 3 times. The best Swanson has finished is 18th. Simmons blew him away in WAR during this period.
As an Angels fan i’m not a Simmons fan due to walking out on the team and feel Swanson likely will be a better player, but I would not give him the contract you believe he deserves.
As for Story he likely will be starting at SS for Boston and is a better all around player than Swanson.
NashvilleJeff
Your points may be valid on Story, but imo his best days are behind him, and if the talk coming out of Boston is true, Story’s arm weakness makes him a 2bman now not a SS. Plenty of disagreement amongst Braves fans on Swanson. If the Braves had any viable internal options I’d be more open to thoughts that AA won’t go above what many believe Swanson’s worth. Doubt the FO pays a more exorbitant price for an outside option like Turner or Correa (no way Bogaerts is even under consideration, infield defense matters too much to the Braves) but it’s not impossible. See no trade options that could be considered an upgrade. Would be shocked if they sign a lesser option at the position. They’re just not at the point in their competitive window to downgrade at the most important position on the field. Swanson’s got pretty decent negotiating leverage w/the Braves due to their weakened farm system and the Braves FO likely reluctance to pay much higher prices for his best replacement options Correa or Turner. Just my opinion.
urnuts
What about Grissom at SS.
Story is 29 years old or 1 year 3 months older than Swanson. The reason he play 2b this year was to rehab his elbow and by the end of the season back to full strength . Boston knew about the issue, and the reason Story agreed to move to 2b, with Boston signing an insurance policy for 2023 at SS.
I agree there are no options outside of FA and he should resign, as the QO likely will drive his price down.
Good luck to the Braves next year.
DTD/ATL1313
Grissom is not a SS option, defense isn’t MLB caliber
NashvilleJeff
Yeah, I get the thinking on Story. I’ve seen reports on his elbow and other talk that he preferred to stay at 2B. Have no idea if it’s valid or not. Good luck to the Angels too urnuts. I’d enjoy seeing Trout and Ohtani in the playoffs next year. Grissom? I think there’s a strong consensus among Braves fans that Grissom’s defense isn’t going to be acceptable in a ML middle infield. Imo he should have been sent to the Arizona Fall League to work on a transition to left field. There’s some interesting discussion amongst Braves fans regarding Grissom’s plate approach too. The Braves employ a “swing hard at pitches in the zone that you can drive.” Grissom’s more of a “fight off pitches, desperate just to make contact” kind of hitter. Imo, he has no chance to be a viable ML SS—-and I could be totally wrong about it.
NashvilleJeff
Yep, been in agreement w/that every time it’s said DTD.
Samuel
Like Jose Abreu – FA from the White Sox – Xander Bogaerts is a natural, pure hitter. Those 2 might be the best in all of MLB.
But also like Abreu we see Bogaerts power numbers beginning to go down (Abreau’s are far worse, but he’s 6 or so years older). Then you have to add in that Fenway Park made Rico Petrocelli a star SS. Hit a routine fly ball to LF, it bounces off the wall for a double. Get it up in the air a bit more, it’s a HR.
Xander is surely a team leader and a winning ballplayer. Many teams need a guy like him. But knowing Scott Boras he’ll be looking for an AAV around $40m on a long-term contract…..same as he’ll be looking for Correa. Don’t know that there’s a big calling for that around MLB. In cases like this, one has to look for the most desperate owner / FO head. Odds are that the Giants sign one of them and give Mr. Boras the amount he insists on.
NashvilleJeff
If Bogaerts gets a multi year deal at a 40 mill AAV I’ll never quibble w/a single word from you ever again. Correa won’t sniff that either.
stymeedone
Maybe XB saw his power numbers go down for the same reason every player not named Judge saw his power numbers go down. MLB played with the ball again!!!
Samuel
NashvilleJeff;
You’re one of many ankle-biters that always take an opposite side to what I write. Take something out of context, then attack me for writing something I didn’t. Typical social media tactic. After a while I Mute them as there’s no dialog or sharing of ideas going on. Just oneupmanship. That’s for middle school kids (of which many are on here).
Why in the world would you “….never quibble w/a single word from you ever again” because a player gets an amount in a long-term contract?
I have no idea where you’re coming from or what, if any, values you have. Is the amount of money a player gets in a contract so important to you? Why? What does it have to do with your life? Tell you this much – I couldn’t care less. I enjoy watching MLB games, and watching teams jell. I only care about one statistic – W vs. L – and what players are doing to help their teams get more W’s and less L’s. And I’ve seen enough baseball over more than half a century to know that one or two players do not make or break a team.
Tell you something else that no one agrees with me on – if the Braves lose Swanson they should immediately go after Kevin Newman of the Pirates. He can be had cheap as the Pirates are rebuilding and have 2 guys trying to play SS so they don’t need Newman. He’s pretty much the same player as Swanson – has spent his career with a terrible organization getting no real coaching. Put him on a quality team like the Braves, have Ron Washington and Kevin Seitzer work with him, and that team won’t miss a beat in 2023….plus he’ll be far more affordable.
JoeBrady
You’re one of many ankle-biters that always take an opposite side to what I write.
==============================
That’s the nature of the internet. Unless someone writes something truly insightful, most people simply leave a +1, if even that. Folks only write if they disagree.
NashvilleJeff
Hilarious. Call me a name, insult me w/your unqualified judgement of my “values,” and in the next breath, you whine about “social media tactics.” Why are you always offended when I or others respond negatively to your posts? You constantly make false claims that your words are “taken out of context.” Don’t want criticism of your posts? Ignore or mute those who disagree w/your pompous proclamations and amateur psychology. How about working on your reading skills and declining memory. You stated that a “desperate owner/FO head” would “give Mr. Boras the amount he insists on.” You defined that amount to be “an AAV around $40m on a long term contract.” I responded to your words w/a light hearted response to indicate that I believe there’s no chance that either Bogaerts or Correa will be paid that much. You’re outraged that I don’t think that’s going to happen. A simpleton would have no trouble understanding my response to you. Do you want an apology because I joked about quibbling w/you? Good grief. Quit taking yourself so seriously.
NashvilleJeff
Not entirely true Joe. I’ve agreed w/many of your posts and have said so. I’ve mentioned in conversations w/others here that I respect your opinions and knowledge. You’re more than just a good read on the Red Sox.
Samuel
Joe;
There are ankle biters out there.
Read posts I wrote above. His kid goes under each of my posts and tells other how full of it I am. That’s fine. I’m not going to get into arguments here – which is why I have over 100 people Muted. Discussing issues is one thing. Posting sarcastic comments below a persons posts because you have a different opinion is something I don’t need. This is kid stuff.
The guy goes on Mute tomorrow. I’ve read noting he’s written that have made me think – boy, I hadn’t realized that….good point.
Samuel
And Joe……
It’s not just me he pulls this crap on.
NashvilleJeff
Condescend much? Are you so high and mighty that those who disagree w/your pompous proclamations have to bite at your ankles? You’re not challenged by any opinion that doesn’t kowtow to yours. That’s why you have “over 100 people Muted.” You’re incapable of civil discussion so you deflect differing opinions by classifying them as unwarranted and unfair sarcasm. Try defending your positions w/out the childish name calling and insults. Have you even considered that the “over 100 Muted” might have good reasons for responding in kind to your insults? Of course you haven’t because narcissists are incapable of self reflection. Btw, I’m no “kid,” and am delighted to be added to your “Muted” list.
BStrowman7
If you’ve muted over 100 people—there might have to be some self reflection as to why that number is so high.
But anyhow, back to the article. Swanson isn’t worth what he’ll likely be paid. He’s way better than Newman but the Braves are set up well without needing a SS who can really hit.
They’re getting plus offense from every other position on the field & their catching tandem hits as well as any in baseball. They’d be OK w/ a Newman for peanuts. Obviously a SS who can really hit and field is better but they can take solely a fielder with this lineup construction.
If Newman can continue being only 5-10% below average offensively they shouldn’t feel too much pain.
gorav114
Some serious Dunning Kruger effect with that guy
gorav114
I think the Os might make a move on one of these guys and I hope it’s not Dansby. Turner would fit it nicely. He would also add nice flexibility to the infield
Samuel
Huh?
They’ve got 4 guys that can play SS, and the one doing it now deserves the Gold Glove for 2022. What flexibility would he add? Speed? The guy they have they have there now stole more bases than Turner, and has been clocked running around the bases as faster then him.
Last year their team payroll was $64m. They’re supposed to give one guy around $40m to play a position that others they have under contract can play?
I can’t write this stuff anymore. People commenting here need to watch some Orioles games.
NashvilleJeff
Absolutely correct on this one Samuel. The O’s have no interest in a FA SS w/Gunnar H. and other good options there.
jbigz12
Gunnar isn’t playing SS in the major leagues. The kid is a 3B from now on. Maybe he gets a small run like Bregman did if our internal SS goes down.
But still very unlikely.
NashvilleJeff
Good to know on Gunnar. Thought he was “the guy” moving forward. Thanks for the info.
gorav114
Explain how he is absolutely correct? What good options. Gunnar? He’s gonna be moved to 3rd. Mateo? You really want Mateo as the starting shortstop? I love Mateo and think he brings a lot to the team but he shouldn’t be getting 500 at bats on a contender. Westburg? Still in the minors Nevin, Vavra? Ugh. The Os are in need of an upgrade at SS. Turner may be too expensive but can’t say he wouldn’t fit
gorav114
Funny u say that when u have no idea what you are talking about. Gunnar will be moved to 3rd. I love Mateo but he should not be getting 500 at bats on a contender. Westburg is still in the minors and you can’t rely on him being there. Vavra is terrible. Maybe I’ll count Urias if they move him to SS with Gunner at 3rd. That’s the flexibility part. Gunnar can play some short while Urias is at 3rd. Turner can play 2nd. Mateo can spell at SS moving the other guys around. But go off
C Yards Jeff
@GoRav; FO is sold on Mateo’s defense. Not on his offense. I’m thinking they give him one more year to improve on his OBP with emphasis on swing and miss issue. If he does, he’s the SS and for awhile. If not, they go in house not abroad for a solution.
jbigz12
I think Samuel is the most sold on Mateo of anyone.
He’s a good player that could improve if he simply works at basic fundamentals. He needs to stop trying to hit homers everytime he’s up and should be an all pro bunter.
With his speed—if he’s able to add a good bunting game—that’s enough to make him a starting SS on a playoff team. If he’s on 1B—he’s probably taking 2nd.
gorav114
I really love Mateo. He brought a lot to the team just not sure his bat will ever be close to good enough. Seems like that solid D and speed would be a lot better coming off the bench. You could be right about giving him another season and just chase pitching, 2nd, and backup to first base
BStrowman7
@sam
Who are the 4?
Gunnar is a 3B now. He’ll never be a SS at this point. Westburg’s glove isn’t any good at SS. Ditto Urias.
It’s Mateo & Joseph Ortiz as the 2 real SS’s in the org. Which is really enough. I’d rather ride out it with those guys. Mateo needs to work on a few Things this off-season if he wants to be a WS contender’s starting SS. A guy like that should be a proficient bunter and if he’s able to work on his approach—- We’re talking about a serious talent for peanuts.
cpdpoet
The FOUR:
So it begins….the discussion of who signs when, with whom and for how much….
And, does one get “Correa’d”….?
BeansforJesus
Corey Seager reached and signed during free agency at the perfect time.
NashvilleJeff
So did Baez and Story. All 3 found suckers to their liking.
BeansforJesus
Agreed. But Seager somehow getting that $300 mil + puts him beyond. He’s going to be his brother in a few years. Bat speed slows down as he ages, so if he’s not hitting .270 he’s not getting on base at an above average clip. And with his defense, he better continue to hit for power (which he did this year).
NashvilleJeff
W/you Beans.
FSF
I still don’t understand the 3/$60M that the Sox offered preseason. The bottom baseline would have been something like 5/$125M and that would have been on the very low side in this market but at least you could cling to some vestige of having acted in good faith.
Not only did they insult Bogaerts, but the Red Sox look like clowns for ever even having made such an offer. I mean why bother? We’re they really stupid enough to think that making that offer was better than making no offer at all?
stymeedone
Boston offered to pay him like a good hitting 2B, which is what his market realistically is. XB wants SS money. Some team may let him play SS next year, but they won’t be signing him for just next year. No team sees him as a SS in even 3 years time, so why pay him like one?
JoeBrady
I love Bogaerts, and even if we were to overpay him, I’d like him back.
But he comes with an awful lot of risk.
1-As you mention, he isn’t really a SS, and moving him is not risk-free.
2-He can hit on the road, but I can’t ignore the H/A splits. My rough estimate last year is a 113 road OPS+.
3-If I reverted his BABIP back to his career .336, then his OPS reverts to .781.
4-His OPS+ has declined three consecutive years. I seldom come across that.
The RS fan in me would like him back, but the BB fan in me is screaming against it.
jbigz12
Joe I’m seeing
128,129,131 for Bogey’s OPS+.
Was 138 before that. They’re all really within a standard deviation of each other.
bearproof
Seattle gotta go after one of those top 4.
.
Simmons is still in the show? Man I am getting old..
.
Simba was great for a time. That was a while ago.
WonderBoy
Turner will be playing center field and batting lead off for your 2023 NY Mets. Put it in the bank. 8 years, $216mm
BobGibsonFan
Turner back to the Dodgers.
Correa to the Tigers getting nearly the same deal he turned down.
Swanson back with the Braves.
Bogaerts to the Phillies.
.
Trea stays a Dodger. Wonder Boy is shrooming.
NashvilleJeff
He sure is Trumbo. He needs to do a little pike fishing to clear his head. Best way to cure a piker………….
.
Freakin Pikers ahhhhh!!!!!!!
antsmith7
Trea Turner is exactly what the M’s need!
BashBroJoe
Really don’t think the Orioles should splurge on any of these guys. Let Mateo play short. Sign Segura for a year or two to play 2nd. Gunnar at 3rd. Should really focus on SP in the trade market and maybe a Bassitt type on the FA market.
YankeesBleacherCreature
Agreed. Keep adding small pieces instead of making a splash while keeping an eye on the Yankees (and Judge as a FA) and what the Rays do. In any other AL division, they should sign one.
CenterWingPolitics
Truth be told Dansby after August was fairly mediocre at the plate. He did have the good Mets series but other than that a typical hot or cold season for Dansby. He was just able to stay above average longer than he had in the past.
Honestly Dansby should NOT be paid nearly what he will ultimately sign for. Braves should hold the line at about 15-18AAV as he’s going to decline offensively and you’re stuck paying a glove 22-26mil a season (no thanks)
They’d be better served shelling the money for Correa
DTD/ATL1313
If they’re gonna shell out big bucks, Correa isn’t the guy. Go ahead and give that money to Fried and then go from there.
BenBenBen
“It bears mentioning, too, that his release…”
Never use “too” and waste two commas when you can simply say also.
jorge78
Hopefully MLB will make the baseball “more lively” next year and fix the dead ball problem…..
Idosteroids
Drop the mound and juice the ball less. Cuts down Ks and HRs. Too many guys trying to lift the ball now a days. With the shift essentially being banned, guys will be even more pull prone…
bhambrave
I think AA will draw the line at 6/100 and dare Swanson to turn it down. When he does, AA will pivot to a cheap defense-first SS yet to be named.
The Braves need to play Grissom in LF at Gwinnett in 2023.