The Rays are dipping into the free agent pitching market, agreeing to terms with right-hander Zach Eflin on a three-year deal. It’s reportedly a $40MM guarantee for the O’Connell Sports Management client. Eflin will make $11MM in each of the next two seasons, followed by an $18MM salary in 2025. The deal is pending a physical.
Eflin had spent his entire big league career with the Phillies. Originally drafted by the Padres, the Orlando native was dealt to the Dodgers and Phils during his time as a minor leaguer. He reached the majors by the middle of the 2016 campaign, bouncing on and off the MLB roster for the first couple seasons. Eflin struggled during his early big league looks, but he’d settled in as a capable mid-rotation arm by 2018.
That season, he made 24 starts and worked to a 4.36 ERA across 128 innings. That kicked off a remarkably consistent stretch of results. In each of the five seasons between 2018-22, Eflin posted an ERA between 3.97 and 4.36. Aside from a spike in strikeouts during the abbreviated 2020 season, he achieved those 3rd/4th starter results in a similar manner every year. He’s proven an excellent strike-thrower who misses bats at a slightly below-average level but keeps the ball on the ground at a solid clip.
Between 2019-21, Eflin worked to a 4.12 ERA with a slightly below-average 21.4% strikeout rate but a stellar 5.7% walk percentage. He’d been on a similar path to begin this season, posting a 4.37 ERA with a 19.6% strikeout percentage and a 5.3% walk rate through his first 13 starts. At the end of June, he landed on the injured list with a right knee contusion. That cost him over two months. By the time he was ready for reinstatement in early September, the Phils had limited time to build him back to a starter’s workload before year’s end. They expedited his return to the majors by plugging him in short relief. Eflin made seven appearances out of the bullpen during the regular season, then tossed 10 2/3 frames over 10 outings as a high-leverage arm during the Phils’ run to a National League pennant.
While Eflin doesn’t miss many bats, his blend of stellar control and a solid five-pitch mix allowed him to find a fair amount of success in Philadelphia’s hitter-friendly home environment. Against right-handed hitters, he leans primarily on a sinker in the 92-93 MPH range, but he turned to a four-seam fastball more often against lefties. Eflin mixes in a cutter and curveball as his usual secondary offerings, occasionally deploying a slider against righties as well. He rarely turns to a changeup, however, and he’s had his share of issues with left-handed batters. Southpaws have hit Eflin at a .274/.335/.492 clip since the start of 2018, but he’s stifled same-handed hitters to a .255/.291/.398 mark.
Tampa Bay surely has designs on plugging him back into the rotation after a healthy offseason. He’ll step in behind Shane McClanahan and Tyler Glasnow in the pecking order, joining Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs in what looks to be the season-opening starting five. The Rays have one of the sport’s top pitching prospects, Taj Bradley, waiting in the wings after a great season in the upper minors. Shane Baz was expected to seize a rotation job himself, but he’s likely to miss all of next season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in September. Luis Patiño, Yonny Chirinos and Josh Fleming are on hand as rotation or multi-inning relief options for what should again be a strong Tampa Bay pitching staff.
If healthy, Eflin fits nicely into the middle of that group. At the same time, the Rays are placing a bet on a pitcher with a concerning injury history. The knee contusion that cost Eflin a couple months this year was the latest in a line of joint issues that have plagued him since before he began his career. He underwent a pair of surgeries to repair the patellar tendons in both his knees in the summer of 2016. At the time, Eflin acknowledged he’d battled chronic knee pain dating back to adolescence (link via Todd Zolecki of MLB.com). He avoided any worrisome injuries for the next few seasons, but he went back under the knife in September 2021 to again repair the patellar tendon in his right knee. That cut his year short, meaning he’s lost chunks of three of the past six seasons to knee issues. There’s real risk in investing in a pitcher who has only once topped 130 MLB innings in a season.
The Rays were willing to look past that to add a pitcher who’s typically effective when healthy. Eflin’s also one of the younger arms available in free agency. He won’t turn 29 until next April, and a pitcher with his age and statistical track record may well have found four years on the open market if not for injury concerns. Tampa Bay wasn’t the only team that valued Eflin in this range, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets the Red Sox had made him the same offer. Eflin elected to join the Rays instead, signing closer to home and avoiding state income tax.
With an $11MM salary for next season, Eflin becomes the highest-paid player on the Tampa Bay roster. He’ll lose that title in 2024, when Glasnow’s salary spikes to $25MM, but he’ll count for a significant portion of a Rays payroll that typically ranks among the league’s lowest. The Rays are now up to around $78MM in projected commitments for 2023, not far off their franchise-record $83MM mark from this past season. The overall $40MM guarantee represents the largest free agent investment in Rays history.
It also easily tops MLBTR’s pre-offseason projection of two years and $22MM for Eflin. The deal narrowly beats the three-year, $39MM guarantee Tyler Anderson received from the Angels last month. Anderson had rejected a qualifying offer and cost the Halos a draft choice. The Phils elected not to qualify Eflin. Philadelphia won’t receive any compensation for his departure, while the Rays won’t lose any picks to add him. To find Eflin’s replacement, Philadelphia can dip into a free agent rotation market that offers a number of options beyond the top trio of Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodón and Justin Verlander. Players like Chris Bassitt, Kodai Senga, Jameson Taillon, Nathan Eovaldi, Noah Syndergaard, Andrew Heaney, Taijuan Walker and Sean Manaea all remain on the market as strong candidates for multi-year deals.
Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the Rays and Eflin had agreed to a three-year deal. Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported the guarantee at $40MM. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported the specific financial breakdown.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
nooo
He seemed well in the relief role, great person to.
What are the odds that Glasgow is on Tampa’s roster to collect that salary?
7 games in relief as opposed to a career of starts? TBay better have their pitching expertise on this, although by today’s standards, not much of a risk, only $11 million, oh boy…
He can sing and dance maybe. But can Zach Efron throw?
Who’s Zach Efron.
Old people.
How am I old?
Lol, Zac Efron is a famous actor. Big with young people. If you have no idea who he is, your probably old.
youtube.com/watch?v=yO28Z5_Eyls
From ‘Greatest Show’
You seem immature don’t see to mind saying this kind of stuff.
Huntington a veritable hipster next to the creaky relics that haunt this place
Good info.
Bet, like Pivetta, he finds better success on his new team. Not saying he’ll blossom into a #2 or anything, but the Phils gave him a shot and probably got him as far as they could….
He wasn’t coming back no matter what, only wish him success….
Eflin’s issue is his knees, while Pivetta’s issue remains his head.
Eflin was a good contributor to the Phillies when he was available. If he starts anywhere close to 30 games per season over the term of this contract, it’ll prove the Rays are still affiliated with the Devil.
If Elfin’s issues are his knees, he’d better be down on them praying to compete with the AL East…
Need TB magic here
Pivetta is a #4 starter, nothing like Eflin. Apples and oranges.
Why do Red Sox fans always degrade their own players? Pivetta has 64 starts the past 2 years, (most in the majors). He’s not a #4 starter.
Pivetta is a solid #3. His ERA+ with the RS is 99. Coupled with being very healthy, that’s pretty solid.
Same as Martin Perez. Perez had a 102 ERA+ with the RS, but some fans thought he was the worst pitcher in baseball.
A solid #3 on a bad team, but not if you want to compete.
Degrade? You should see what said Red Sox fans do when one of their own walk into the bar. Throwing stuff ensues
Martin Perez was terrible, he lost his starting role with us. This past year he was great but waiting to see if that’s an anomoly or not.
As for Pivetta, just look at the stats. Above average guy in strikeouts but high WHIP and walks a ton of guys. He can get on a roll but he follows that up with mediocre outings. A #4 starter on a good team, maybe #3 but I wouldn’t count on it.
The guy was constantly injured and rarely effective when he wasn’t. No loss here.
Pivetta still sucks
He’s ok.
I’m really surprised Tampa didn’t spend a little more here, and steal Jameson Taillon from the Yankees.
I think Tampa got better value with Eflin. If Taillon will cost more and is better NY should have given him a QO.
If Tampa is putting this much $ into him, he’ll become a stud. They are incredible at recognizing untapped potential and turning it into gold.
He will be a monster in TB.
And if he doesn’t and is just mediocre and never healthy like he has been his whole career? Then he hurt them cause they don’t spend much and can’t afford any mistakes.
roar.
Taillon is just below the QO as far as I’m concerned. I definitely think Jameson is worth 15-17 million annually though. My gut tells me the Phillies, Blue Jays, Angels, Rangers or the Braves.
Zach Elgin just signed for 40 million dollars.
By the Tampa Bay Rays.
Yes, son, the apocalypse is nigh.
It’s officially a players market this offseason – good, last year was unacceptable.
Maybe it was an Owners market in Oakland last offseason. It sure wasn’t in Texas. Is Oakland going to spend some money this year? Judge to Oakland perhaps???
I’ll miss Led Eflin as a Philly, and I’m very glad that he got some post season moments. If he can keep healthy, something that he’s never been able to do, then he’s a solid 3-4 for any club.
I echo your comments vph, loved it a couple years ago when he blasted the team philosophy….saying something like:
I get the 4-seam fastball system, but it’s not in the skill-set that got me here!
That’s Philly…….best of luck Zach and much success…..
Like “Led Eflin”
Is “missing bats” the same as a batter missing pitches? I mean, if there’s one thing bb needs, it’s more useless statistics.
Well, the goal of a pitcher is to get guys out and there is no better way to get someone out is to make them swing and not hit the ball, so missing bat rate (whiff rate) is not at all useless.
How bout missing innings? Like that
Agree, Von. Eflin was a good soldier when he could suit up. The NL East is no picnic, but I’d say the AL East, especially if Boston improves, is slightly tougher.
Whatever, I wish Eflin well. He helped us get to the WS, so there’s that to be thankful for.
Eflin said he didn’t want to be a reliever. Instead he signs with Tampa where he’ll be an opener. So that makes him a well-paid reliever (in essence) with a dedicated pitching schedule. Good on him. Tampa is a good place for Zach Eflin…
So he slates to pitch a set 3-5 inning role every 5 days…Agree, with knees like his, glad he got the payday…
Did Tampa say he was going to be a reliever or opener? Does paying someone 13 million a year to be a opener sound like something Tampa would do? I can see him as a starter. Especially in Tampa where 4 or 5 innings is fine.
He isn’t a starting pitcher, it’s questionable if he’s a major league pitcher.
Congratulations! With that comment you just dethroned Samuel and A’sFan.
Agree, Dream. One of the dumber comments I’ve seen on Trade Rumors. Eflin not a MLB pitcher! The Rays are not that stupid.
Really knucklehead? You can have his 4 and change era plus two blown knees,plus his usual multiple dl stints for your laughable overpay.
Yah, nice going DreamGM, taking names
making lists. Samuel and AsFan, the hall of shambolic indeed. Like that really bad U2 Lemon or something where they just mailed it in. This Dodge City chat board needs a Marshal like you- if you’re up for it that is.
Troll
Eflin is alright, but how in the world did he fetch more than Tyler Anderson?? Definitely looks like an overpay, but with the rays who knows, this guy could win the cy young next season.
You said it yourself: dont ever bet against the Rays when it comes to pitchers.
What I want to know is, who is going to catch his pitches? In other words, where is Mike Zunino?
If Curtis Mead and Taj Bradley are on the table for Sean Murphy, then the Rays will get a ’23 AL All-Star at catcher to catch all the pitches, and the Rays are playoff-bound for sure.
They most likely are playoff bound anyway.you must mean world series bounced. Either way they “might” give up one not both
@A’sfanintheUK I agree with your take on what the Rays can do to bring out the best in a pitcher. But I also think that if Eflin signed the same contract with the Rays or Dodgers, many reactions would be ‘he must have upside, look out for a great year’, if the signing was with the Giants or Red Sox many reactions would be ‘There goes Zaidi or Bloom dumpster diving again’
Not sure if I wanna spend part of a Fryday reading all those words, but much likey the Wampum Walloper handle – permission to coopt good ma’am/sir
I see some upside if he stays healthy. I feel like he’s never been able to hit his ceiling due to his knee injuries. I hope he finds his groove in Tampa.
That’s both knees. Oof. Wish him well. Hope he holds up.
Probably age related
Eflin is 4 full years younger than Anderson.
Peripherals have been more kind to Eflin in recent season than actual results.
The Rays will probably get him there.
Don’t forget the draft pick compensation.
The Phillies didnt quality him baseball genius.
Overpaid and a huge reach.
Lol lol lol lol lol lol lol lol
Way less tax aswell so his 13.3 per year there is 15-17 or even more depending on where else he would have signed. A hockey player signed in Dallas for 7 instead of Montreal a few years back. They said it was just over 11 in MTL to make the same money, just to give ppl an idea of the kinda of difference there can be. Efflin did really, really well for himself
Youth may be the differential and the QO limiting TAs market
Great landing spot for him assuming they don’t try and move him between starting and relieving too much.
You must have not followed his brief and injury marred career with the Phillies.
I did. The only time he was successful as a reliever was last year after a long layoff. Last time though it didn’t go nearly as well.
40 mil seems like a lot, no? Good for him
The price of Bassitt just went up to 5 years $100M
I think this is a mid tier inflation market right now.
Which is kind of what MLB was hoping to do. Get the younger and mid-level guys some more cash.
MLBPA that is.
Mid tier ??? Eflin is a number 5 on his best day. Which is he will give you 5 .
I doubt that. He will get 80 max imo. We will see
Bassit is too old.
3/60 seems possible. But I’d be surprised if he got more.
34 isn’t super old for a starter, especially one like Bassitt who does not rely on power stuff to be successful.
Yeah for me it’s more about the stuff, he will probably get paid lower then many pitchers in his skillset because he doesn’t throw gas or strike out an absurd amount of players.
The list of non elite SP who have gotten 4 year deals at age 34 or older is really really small.
Maybe I’m wrong but I’d bet that doesn’t happen.
3/60 feels like the top for me. & even that is higher than I would’ve went before seeing some of the deals.
My expectation was 3/$60mil for Bassitt prior to the Boyd and Eflin deals, now I’m thinking he’s got a pretty good chance of beating that. He’s not sexy, but he is probably the best SP on the market after Verlander, deGrom, and Rodon.
This Bassitt is a hound and this hound don’t hunt
I’d rather have Eflin… Bassitt got lit up in every big game down the stretch for the Mets it seems…
Seems high for him and the Rays. Good for them.
40 sounds right. Great chance of being traded before that 17 million 3rd year.
Have you noticed that all of the FA signings so far have been with teams that were not mentioned by Morosi or other MLB insiders as having been interested or prioritizing that player? Even Abreu.
A lot of MLB insiders mentioned the Astros interest in Abreu right from the start of the offseason.
That’s how it usually goes.. the X team is interested in Y player reports are pointless.
@Wadz:
Let’s just hope you are right. Then Aaron Judge would have to settle for a one-year deal with Oakland…
Gruß,
BSHH
Most the reports are just poor negotiating tactics or thin weak news.
All of baseball knew Houston wanted Abreu.
Wow $13ish million a year for a guy who hasn’t really ever proven much in the MLB
Elfin is an average major leaguer, if all teams had rosters filled with Eflin’s the average payroll would be $338M per team.
Haha this is a nonsensical way to look at things for multiple reasons
Average? Baseball is in trouble.
Proven when healthy he could be at least a #4 who can limit hard contact. Proven he has potential to be a reliever if coming back from a injury or better starters are available.
You and your (if he is) get managers fired and players like Eflin overpaid.
GOOD BYE
pitchers have a tendency of becoming good or great in tb. he might blossom into a Cy Young contender in the future.
I’m crying I’m laughing so hard.
Your dislike/obsession for him is sad, did he sleep with your boyfriend?
Hee hee suntan. Or are you a Mrs. Untan? Unclear
That Eflin Jack!!!! Actually we share the same birthrate April 8th.
I think all men share the same birthrate…zero. Sorry, just a funny typo.
The birthrate of many posters on this here chat board. Right up there with a Dungeons and Dragons game room on a Saturday night or a Rush music appreciation society symposia.
Wake me up when Judge puts pen to paper.
Boss! Boss! Wake up! He’s signing! Boss! Boss! Da plane! Da plane!
Rays window is still open, but they need to upgrade with top end free agents if they want to win it all!
Looks like perhaps they intend on trading him before year 3, otherwise why backload the contract with $18M commitment for a potential relief pitcher for that one year? With the Rays strict self-imposed finances that seems like an awful steep price.
My thought as well. Get the most from him for two—maybe even one—year(s) and then trade him.
Eflin is so bad, I wouldn’t trade Eflin for him.
Rays window is always open. Not like they keep players 6 and 2/3 years and lose them to free agency. If they rebuild they will drastically cut payroll from a massive 70 million down to 50 million.
Holy crap, I got a prediction right! Only the team though, I was off by a year on the contract and by $2 million in the AAV.
Very intriguing player. On any given start he could dominate- or fold like an accordion
I don’t know how many people picked this one in the contest.
Yeah I had the Orioles. Oh well. 0-3
I had the Orioles also. Like Von Hayes said, if he stays healthy, it is a good deal for Tampa. The Phillies would never have given him a 3 year deal, based on his injury history.
I predicted Eflin to the White Sox, 3 years $34M…
I thought Eflin would be a Met.
Dang the rays signed someone instead of just talking about it. Good for them.
Wonder if they trade Glasnow now?
Why would anyone give up anything of substance for Glasnow? He has only eclipsed 100 innings once in his career and people act like he is the second coming of Walter Johnson or something. He is an extremely overpaid, injury-prone pitcher that will probably never reach his full potential.
He’s had over 100 innings pitched from 2013-2018
He’s been good when healthy the last couple of years. Tampa owes him $25 million next year. Only $4 this year. Seems like a prime trade candidate
No one cares about minor league innings. You might as well just start talking about how good he was in high school too. Major league stats are really the only ones that matter.
Sounds like the knock on Carlos Rodon Last year…….
Rodon was light years ahead of Glasnow. He surpassed 120 innings in 4 of his 7 big league seasons before 2022.
Wasted Taillon money on an unproven pitcher in Eflin
Eflin is fine. get a real defense behind him and he’ll be a solid mid rotation guy
Are you smoking brix..?
Whoa oh oh, the Guns of Brixton
Eflin is far from unproven…If he stays healthy, that’s the issue.
On a good day, he’s a decent 3.
I’m vomiting.
Good for you
If Eflin is getting 3/$40mil and Boyd is getting 1/$10mil, Taillon is probably getting like 4/$70mil.
The team signing Taillon will be the one wasting money.
Taillon is going to get $20 mil or over a year. Eflins contract is around $13 +. Hugh difference to the Rays.
“Wasted” might be a bit of an overstatement, but Taillon is definitely overrated by a lot of people I see talking about him and it really looks like he is going to get overpaid pretty significantly if the Boyd and Eflin deals are anything to go by. He has been exactly league average 2 years in a row but a lot of posts I see online talk about him like he’s a difference maker. It’s really weird.
Maybe Taillon surprises me but I predict pitchers getting 5 or 10 million more will significantly out perform him and guys getting 5 or 10 million less will be almost, as good, or better. He’s in that middle zone I don’t like. Open up the wallet and get Verlander Rodon or save some money and get Anderson Quintana.
With the way the Rays coach pitching their pitchers tend to have an exorbitant injury rate. Lot’s of TJ and other things.
Going to the Rays it seems a stretch for Eflin to make 30-plus starts. If he stays off the IL till June 1 it’ll be an major accomplishment.
Agreed. Respect the organization a ton. But they probably lead MLB in pitcher tommy john surgeries. It feels like 2-3 every year. Is it bad luck or do they something mechanical? I know they love velocity but everyone does.
tj injuries seem to be this year’s thing. In 2021, it was oblique injuries.
Astros2017Champs;
It seems to happen every year to both Rays starters and relievers.
Makes me respect pitching factories such as like Cleveland and Houston – they seem to get a lot of production out of pitchers without their having to overextend. They have some injuries of course, but it they seem to be moderate. The Orioles seem to be using the same philosophies (they’re Astros 2.0). In fact, both the Astros and Orioles seem to do quite well working with pitchers that came off of major injuries. To happens too often to be coincidental – those teams staffs know something….or were taught something by medical people.
The real question here is which team will Tampa trade him to halfway through that contract?
Rangers
That’s an Effin load of cash , well done Zachary.
Hory Sheet guys. The Rays are spending!!!
Wow. Very un-Rays like. Spending big money on a reliever. They usually trade and improve other relievers or develop their own. Could indicate a shift in the overall market, meaning it’s becoming more difficult to “steal” arms from other teams.
Or, my guess they’ll keep him in the rotation. They have so many arms.
They are definitely starting him.
He hasn’t been a reliever very long. I see teams stealing relievers all the time. Hasn’t slowed down yet.
Thanks for your service, hurt too much for the Phils, bum knee
Man, I was thinking Tallion would get 4/60. Closer to the 15 mil than 20 per season. I now think he’ll get 18/20 p
Taillon is going to be more expensive than many assume. Or did assume.
Yeah, if Eflin gets 3/$40 million, Taillon easily has a case for like 4/$68 million. I was thinking like 3/$48 million for JT.
It’s friggin’ crazy how much middle and even back of the rotation starters get nowadays.
3rd rate no talent bums on offense, one of the best and deepest pitching staffs and they blow most of budget on a pitcher. I guess they are building depth for when they trade Glasnow next off season ( they are noT paying him 25 million
And they will somehow end up better then your team too! Isn’t that funny(
I am a Rays fan, but unlike you I am smart enough and honest enough to see their faults
I’m not a rays fan lol, they have plenty of cracks but don’t they always find some way of being in the playoffs? All I’m saying is I’d give them the benefit of the doubt. They are known to improve pitchers and work platoons better than anyone. I’m no genius but I’m “smart and honest” enough to see this.
Elfin is a good pitcher, glad to have him…if money is unlimited. But the rays offense SUCKS! spend money on real hitters
I agree with you on that part of it. Sean Murphy and someone like cutch would look good there!
Most fans can be honest and real, yet not refer to their own team as “3rd rate no talent bums”. That’s your opinion, and probably harsher than any Yankee or Red Sox fan would say. Definitely not a fact.
There was a stretch in June-July where the lineup included 4 and sometimes 5 batters hitting under .200. The entire lineup strikes out at an alarming rate overall, meaning their outs aren’t even productive. The Rays offense was sub-replacement level this year. I agree with Mr Sun Tan. While it is nice to see the Rays trying to spend, this is not the hole we need to fill.
Wow, 3 guaranteed years? Did not expect that for Eflin, and definitely not from the Rays. Guess they see something and think they can turn him into significantly more than the 4.00ish ERA guy he has generally been for awhile..
Good for Zach though, get paid boi.
Loving this mid move by the Rays. Can’t have the AL east making deep end moves if I want the Os to stand a chance.
My guess is that the Rays believe they can turn him into something more than he has been historically, and I would not bet against them.
Yeah but with that kind of dough they can develop 5 Zach Eflins (with healthy joints!) from their own system; they have guys like Eflin growing out of their ears. Zach must be the owner’s god-son or something
We’ll have to wait and see, but I would not be too shocked if we’re all talking about how much of a steal this move was in a few years. The Rays would not have committed this much money to him if they weren’t very confident in their ability to get him to the next level.
Ignorant SOB’s current working hypothesis: the only kind of free agent worthwhile to compete for are 1. Ace caliber starting pitchers, IF your team is in WIN NOW MODE. 2. Elite, Silver Slugger/All-Star caliber players worth a projected 3.5 – 4 WAR or higher per life of contract.
There, done. Otherwise. Owners, keep your checkbooks in your breast pocket, or else you are overpaying boatloads for scrubs you should already have in your system or you can trade for.
I’d rather save money and get someone cheaper under the radar that will give me ace production.
Wouldn’t we all, but how often does that happen? At any rate, you would have to agree that scrubs like Nimmo, Benitendi, Bell, Contreras, etc. are players you Do Not want to be paying retail (plus 20%) if you can help it…those sort of bit players you need to develop, same as 4th starters like Tyler Anderson.
Well since you ask and brought it up the Dodgers paid Anderson 8 million last year and was willing to give him 19 million this year. His 2022 production was worth more than 19 million. Look up how much Daniel Vogelbach, Albert Pujols, and Matt Carpenter were paid and then their stats. Kyle Schwarber wasn’t cheap but put up super star numbers without the super star mega contract.
You can say those teams just got lucky and I will say the Giants are extremely lucky! Joc Pederson and Carlos Rodon! Maybe just lucky for 1 year. I will then say Kevin Gausman.
“Cheaper under the radar…… ace production”? Call yourself Fantasy GM.
Dodgers got a 2.57 era for 8.5 million just last season. Reality GM baby.
As a Phillies fan I wish him only the best and thank him for his time here and especially in the latest playoff run.
That’s a lot of money for a player who is more speculation than substance. Surprised Tampa of all teams is taking a risk like this. Guess that more than anything else, this signifies a player’s market. And that also explains the scarce movement we’ve seen so far.
Not much risk. If he doesn’t improve at all he is still worth a majority of his contract. The upside is worth it.
I guess there is no such thing as an overpay if everyone is getting paid.
I thought it was a bit nuts that he didn’t take the QO, but he bet on himself and won. It’s weird: I think it’s s big overpay, but I also think Eflin has upside.
I meant option not QO
The Rays also seem to think he has upside too, and I would not bet against them based on their track record. I definitely can’t imagine them giving him this deal if they didn’t see something that they believe they can adjust/tap into and get him to another level.
Five bucks says we’re all talking about how much of a steal this contract was for them in a couple of years after he posts 2 straight top 5 CY Young Award finishes for them and they flip his final expensive season for a massive haul of prospects lol.
I feel the same. I’ve always liked Eflin and his stuff, but his injury history made him unreliable. It’s likely that he doesn’t live up to that contract because of his knees.
I could imagine him having success in Tampa and getting flipped in a year and a half with Tampa winning the trade, like they do most of the time
20-30 starts over the contract knees are shot…..if he passes the 1st physical
Why? Eflin is the type of player that Tampa usually gets as a throw-in in a trade or signs to a minor league deal/minimum contract and gets solid production out of them. 3/40 isn’t making any sense to me.
Seems like a really strange expenditure for the Rays. I would have thought if they were spending in free agency it would be for some offense , which they are in dire need of. Veteran swing-men with crappy knees are a dime a dozen, or twelve for a penny, at least in the Rays pitching development machine. Why??? This makes absolutely zero sense to me.
Maybe someone brighter than me, like Samuel , can explain this one to me as if I’m in 3rd grade.
I don’t get it either. To buy a pitcher with a history of injuries dating back to the start of his career who posts era over 4 and threw a few good innings in the POs doesn’t seem very smart. The only reason I think of is, maybe they see the flaw(s) in his pitching and that they think that they can fix it.
Samuel brighter than you. Hee hee. Is this a bit?
The emoji meant to convey a certain tone in that post failed to upload to the site 😉
Well obviously he’s going to have a sub 3 ERA and probably garner Cy Young votes now. If Tampa is giving him that contract there’s gotta be something they see to unlock his full talent that we don’t. I hope Zach finds it.
Talk about an overpay- not by a lot, but still- another lottery ticket contract this off season. I agree with others- the pocket books are open this year and everybody is getting paid at the top range or well above what we’d expect them to have received in free agency.
Were the Rays really high on this guy or something? This is a lot of money from them- but I know they value pitching and will shell out for their pitchers.
I mean… it’s not a terrible deal… but it’s a bit high for any team to offer , much more so the rays. Makes me wonder what they see I don’t….
“Without a changeup he turns to often” what ?
The fact that the Rays won’t lose a draft pick was a large factor in deciding whether to sign him. A team like the Rays needs to build through the draft to continue their low budget magic.
“The knee contusion that cost Eflin a couple months this year was the latest in a line of joint issues that have plagued him since before he began his career.”
When I hear “contusion,” I think of a bruise, but I find nothing on the web about a contact injury to Eflin. Wassup?
Too much.
Youth/Prime Years, Risk, Command, and Tropicana Field might be a good recipe for the Rays and Eflin to pull off a nice victory together.
Eflin seems like a replacement for Yarbrough and a bridge for Shane Baz’s TJ surgery. He also replaces what Kluber brought.
Despite numerous of the same reactions posted, there is something shrewd about this deal. Plus this opens the door for Kluber to join the Red Sox…
An 11 million dollar bridge ??? That’s an exorbitant bridge to Baz that they could have plugged and played one of their typical AAAA bulk pitchers with.
Nah, you don’t get it; you aren’t thinking it through. Besides who would be better at $11M anyways?
#1: Assuming bulk pitchers are for normal. No, that’s wrong. They were replacements for injured starters. Still need to have SP to fill holes in the rotation. Plus cupboard is empty, only filled with used-up Fleming and injured Chirinos.
#2 Assumption that Rays find costless players to fill holes out of thin air like nothing. That’s wrong. They have to pay for veterans just like anyone else. They’ve tried to get around it by paying for BROKEN players (Kluber, Wacha, Archer) but they still have to pay market prices.
He might not be DeGrom but he’s not a bad gamble. God move.
A good Gamble was Oscar
File this under R for reach!! Lol
If this contract sets the market for backend starters, I can’t see my Pirates landing a guy like Gibson. Can you imagine them giving a 4/5 starter the largest AAV contract in club history? This is madness.
When that free agent mentions this contract the pirates will say Tampa can have you. Contracts don’t set the market. It’s play for the most money someone is willing to pay or don’t work.
True enough, Dream. I guess the Pirates may have to lower the bar on any SP they bring in since they will never go anywhere near 3/$40m. I could see them going 2/$20m for a Gibson, but would that get it done? I doubt it after the Eflin signing.
Eflin signing is irrelevant. Setting the market isn’t a thing. Players and their union would love to beat each previous record but that’s as far as it goes. Teams will pay as much as they want to pay and players will take the best available offer. I think Pirates go lefty unless they sign 2 starters. They will find someone other teams aren’t hot on.
The only LHP out there in the Pirates’ price range is Miley. I think they will be forced to bite the bullet and overpay or stay with what they have. Contreras, Keller, Brubaker, Oviedo, and Ortiz.
Gibson is much older and has worse peripherals.
I could be surprised but I think 2/20-22 gets it done.
I think their price range could be more than 2 million this year.
I actually liked the Pirates SP last year. JMHO, but I could see Brubaker breaking out in a big way this year, and especially so because the NL Central stinks.
I would like to see what another team could do with him. Divisions won’t factor as much with new schedule.
I’m not saying they have too much pitching, but they have too much pitching to have such an anemic offense. Gotta think someone is on the way out. McClanahan could get pretty much any bat in the game, and the Rays would still have a full rotation. Dare I say…Tatis?
Genuine question. While I’m not saying it’s impossible but how would that even look? Tatis has a monster contract. Can’t see Tampa taking that on and they already have Francos contract. Preller would have to eat a literal F ton of dead money just for McClanahan.
baseballtradevalues says Tatis and McClanahan have similar values. Tatis’ salary is heavily backloaded, so he could play 3rd base for half a decade before they move him in a salary dump.
The Rays gave $25M for 1 season of Glasnow, and $40M to Eflin. After offering Freddie more than any team but the Dodgers, and after giving Wander $200 million. The Rays are starting to spend!
He was decent with the Phillies. Got him in the JIMMY ROLLINS trade. Did his job. Phillies are going on to bigger and better things.
With the advent of the “auto” strike zone, I have a feeling pitchers with good command are going to be in higher demand than in the past.
Eflin checks that box. Rarely walks anybody. Put a good defense behind him and he’s easily a 12-game winner with a decent ERA and WHIP. Phillies defense was awful last year. Only Bryson Stott and Segura (When he was healthy.) were decent defenders on the grass or dirt. CF was a wasteland until they traded for Marsh.
If any team can get the most out of Eflin its the Rays. This could turn into a pretty underrated signing
The Ray’s are spending stupid money (for them)?
Now I know it’s the end times…..
High price for Pitching. 13.3 avg. Not that Bad. But he’s totally mid tier. And doesn’t have the starts, in my opinion, over the last 3 seasons to get This kind of deal (Length).
He will not pass the physical
He will not pass the physical.
I’m not a gm but I did watch all 162 philly games last year. Eflin stinks,brutal. Glad we saved the money. Tampa is dumpster diving. The guy cannot stay healthy.
Seems un Ray’s like
Surprised the Rays are spending this much on pitching. They need hitters REALLY badly.
Is Brandon Lowe EVER going to hit again…….or stay healthy? Rays need more guys who can hit the longball.
$40M over 3 years for a guy with a 4.33 ERA. I wasn’t too impressed with him in the WS. And the Rays? Ok, seems weird.
Wow! I liked him for my RS, but i thought he’d go a lot cheaper.
Wow, these mediocre free agent pitchers are getting signed for too much money.
I have a feeling Tampa Bay looks at pitchers and sees what they can make them.
Also, I’m thinking Anderson at 3/39 is going to look like a pretty good deal.
Alrighty then
Corrective surgery, cut short his season…..!????!?!?!!
TWO, TWO
THUMBS UP!
Tampa signs a guy like this to a contract like that, and baseball fans are inclined to say, “Hmmm, Tampa must see something in him.”
Insert the the name of at least 25 other teams however, and most baseball fans would say, “What an absolutely horrible signing!”
Adios amigo with your “loagy” injuries and not worth another look with his career 4 and a half ERA. Thing that scares me is TB knows what their doing and made him their highest paid FA ever! Must be nice to be him!
#3 starter is the highest paid player on the team. I like Tyler Anderson for the same money a lot more.
That’s one I got on the contest
With that history of knee pain, I hope he’s being paid enough to make up for the fact he’ll barely be able to walk by age 40.
The Rays FO sometimes whiffs on FA signings. This is likely one of them. Chris Archer 2021 is the most recent example, and they knew him better than any of these other guys they try to clean up with “Rays Magic.”
Disappointed that the highest paid player on the team is a 4/5 starter (a Rays strength) and not a bat.
I wish him well and I am glad that he got to be a part of 2022’s October magic in Philadelphia. I would say he was fair trade return for franchise icon Jimmy Rollins. I don’t know how his knees will hold up but knowing the Rays’ track record for turning things into gold, it wouldn’t surprise me if they find a way to tinker with his mechanics to help his knees withstand pitching a whole season and he becomes an All-Star in Tampa. Not saying it will happen but it wouldn’t surprise me. This deal makes me wonder if the Phillies should have tendered him the QO and wonder if someone would have signed him and gotten the Phillies an extra pick next summer.
Don’t be surprised when Tampa announces the third year has a club option.
Slightly more innings then deGrom over the last 3 seasons, with twice the ERA!
$40m guaranteed? The Rays must figure they can add value and move the surplus. He’s not finishing in Tampa unless he falls apart.
He’s an elite strike thrower and gets some swing and miss on the curve ball (at times it can be a great pitch). Compare him to Kluber who got $13M from TB last year and it makes some sense because Eflin is younger and has some velo left, more pitches, and gives Tampa a lot more to work with.
Eflin gives up a lot of weak contact, keeps the ball in the yard, and mercifully sits at league average rates for GB and FB. TB probably thinks he’ll benefit from having better defense behind him, and by being league average on GB, not get too badly beat around by the end of the shift.
I read in another article that this was the largest contract the Rays have ever given to a free agent. Kind of interesting that Eflin now has that distinction.
The above comment was not meant to be a reply. Just a general comment.
After Eflin, Seth Lugo seems like a fit for the Rays. maybe his market is too hot.